December 2008
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/08
=== Hope Makes a Good Breakfast, But A Poor Supper Dept. ===
Dr. D's glass is half full, and he's not pouring it over the blog-o-sphere's head. :- ) We're pleased to see that this winter, most sites seem less willing to give up on the M's in 2009, coming off 101 losses, than they were in 2008.
My glass would be half empty if this were Pittsburgh or KC. It ain't. It's a city with a verrrrrrrrrry rich baseball team in residence.
There aren’t enough impact free agent bats that would even consider coming to Seattle to fix this woefully bad offense. That’s the bottom line.
Bottom line? On a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/08
Sandy has made the case against that: that, Atlanta-style, the M's should wait for their blue-chippers to actually show the goods, and then push all in the season following. That is a perfectly valid way to look at it, and I would even agree that the 2009 M's shouldn't push ALL in.
But can they move towards the chance to win, if it doesn't capsize future years? Sure.
..............
The claim has been that you couldn't acquire hitters even if you wanted to. That assertion is what I question. Here are just a couple of examples. This list can definitely be improved, since I offered the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/08
6 Comments
Now, don't get us wrong here: Big Donkey slugged .518 with 40 homers and 122 walks, creating 7.3 runs per 27 outs. I think most of the Mariners didn't.
But those numbers were seriously deflated by the rolls of the dice.
.
=== Paul McCartney 'With A Little Luu-uu-uuuck' Dept. ===
And a little luck, we can clear it up
We can bring it in for a landing,
With a little luck, we can turn it on
There can be no misunderstanding
Neo-sabermetricians are concerned, in large part, with identifying players who have been "unlucky."
If a saberdog ever took the helm, his job would be a piece of cake, right... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/08
3 Comments
=== Get 'Er Dunn, Dept. ===
From Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors, quoting Jayson Stark:
1:46pm: According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the Dodgers contacted Adam Dunn's agent over the holidays to express interest. If the Dodgers sign Dunn, Manny Ramirez could be in a really bad place. Other teams showing interest in Dunn: the Cubs, Nationals, Mariners, and Orioles. All five teams have surfaced in prior reports, with the Brewers also getting a mention while they were mulling a Mike Cameron trade.
Also note this December 3 squib from Ken Rosenthal, via RotoTimes:
Sources told FOXSports.com's Ken... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/27/08
9 Comments
Q. Jarrod Washburn and Richie Sexson were paid stars money. Neither move worked out very well for the Mariners.
This city, over the last ten years, has conditioned us to call a signing a "big contract" in circumstances that are a little different from those that New York or Boston would call big contracts. :- )
Sexson and Beltre were more towards what I’m talking about with “Star” money, but ... Jarrod Washburn? By the time Washburn signed, a 4-year deal for $10MM per was Civic money. The Mariners chose Washburn and Silva for $10MM to $12MM apiece, as opposed to choosing a Santana type and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/26/08
9 Comments
Q: Was Ichiro worth $17M in 2008, given a reasonable estimate on his defensive play?
A. This is one of the most fun Seattle debates -- Ichiro's value. As Phred put it at Mariner Central:
Taro: Adjust Ichiro's defensive value to a more realistic level and hes a $17+mil player even in '08.
Phred: no it won't, and no he isn't a 17 million dollar player no matter what [baloney] stats are twisted to say
Most fans have lives and aren't experts in sabr stats. Most of these fans have trouble believing that any players are worth $15 or $20M per year. Who can blame them?
Ask any fan at Safeco,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/26/08
6 Comments
... because we're placing more confidence in the metrics all the time. And that isn't justified.
...........
Q. Do Fangraphs' new dollar values make us smarter or dumber?
A. Sandy-Raleigh has an info-taining take on it at Mariner Central. We had pointed out, last week, that the new values are based in huge part on the defensive portion of the evaluations -- for example, we noted Mark Teixeira went from $16M in 2007 to $30M last year, mostly because he learned to play 1B last year. :- )
Instantly recognizing the import, Sandy jumped into the fray with more convincing examples. Usually... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/25/08
5 Comments
=== What If Something Happened and Randy Couldn't Pitch At That Level Any More? ===
Famous last words, Royal Brougham ca. 1998. As high as the reward was -- the sight of one of baseball's best and most fascinating pitchers ever, blossoming and prospering right here in Seattle -- that must have been some risk with that 3-year contract. :- )
"I still expect him to be pitching effectively in ten years" -- Bill James, outrageously, in 1995.
As he aged from 40 to 44, Randy Johnson had FIPS (fielding-neutral ERA's) the last 5 years of:
2.18
3.77
4.37
3.08
3.73
We'd be happy if Morrow ran those,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/08
11 Comments
This is the overview, one of five articles. The sabermetric data is in the other four articles:
Age Comps Against
Age Comps For
Age-38 Splits
Value and Junior
.............
Q. Can I have the exec summary?
A. You shore kan. How about in the picture at right? :- )
.
Q: Could he make a difference in 2009?
A. Yes, he could. Here's the split that pulls the below support data together:
Ken Griffey Jr., Platoon Splits, 2006-08
vs RHP - .284 / .378 / .508
vs LHP - .216 / .294 / .395
.
vs RHP - 148 BB, 163 K
vs LHP - 54 BB, 103 K
Griffey wasn't spectacular vs RHP last year -- 120 OPS+ -- but... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/08
2 Comments
Q. How much does he have left in the tank?
A. Here are Griffey's comps from b-ref.com, from age 39 to end of career:
Sim Player From To Yrs G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SB CS OPS+
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
Ken Griffey Was not playing, is not playing, or has not yet played at this age.
887* Frank Robinson 1975-1976 2 85 185 24 43 5 0 12 34 40 27 .232 .366 .454 0 0 136
870* Willie Mays... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/08
2 Comments
The following three players have been: (1) Junior's natural :- ) comps since about 1992, and (2) guys who were verrrrrrry capable of playing baseball at age 39.
........................
Frank Robinson played 50 games, just over 100+ AB's, and had one of his best lines in this tiny amount of play: .237/.385/.508 with a 153 OPS+ and a 2:1 eye (in 1975). 1975 was my favorite baseball year as a boy, but I don't remember whether Robbie was hurt or what. Here is the '75 Indians team, which had the DH. Two good OF's, a great DH, and one mediocre developmental OF in front of Robbie.
Robinson's eye... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/08
2 Comments
If you consider Aaron, Mays, Robinson, and Bonds to be Junior's "birthright" comps ... you find out, wow. Those guys were great at 39, and real good at 40.
But as we all know, Griff has had problemos in his 30's. Where is he at right now?
.
Q. Can he stay healthy any more?
A. Actually, Griffey was hurt at 32, 33, and 34, three years in a row. But from ages 35 to 38, he stayed healthy!
Maybe you remember that at ages 30 and 31, Edgar suffered two straight lost seasons. He moved to DH and was healthy from then on. At this point, you have to figure that Junior will pretty much wind up... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/08
2 Comments
Q. Have you seen the Fangraphs values? Aren't they great?
A. They are super great. And the thing I like best, is the way you can flick-flick-flick between players back and forth.
Have you seen Teixeira? $30.5M of performance last year, per Fangraphs. And that doesn't count bonus money for listening to the National Anthem.
Yes, I'm kidding.
I notice also, at a glance, that Tex wasn't worth anywhere near that in previous years.* Grist to you amigos' grill against Dr. D. :- )
*If you accept the fielding column.
.
Q. How much does Griffey's defense hurt the club? I was looking at... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/08
=== Sir Paul "With A Little Luu-uuu-uuck" Dept. ===
Jason with a great read on Brandon Morrow at Prospect Insider.
..................
Q. Is it established that Morrow is a starter?
A. The debate is legitimate, as to whether Morrow will be a star or not and throw 1800 innings the next ten years. There are two reasonable sides to the debate as to what will happen, because nobody knows for sure what will happen.
In my view, there shouldn't be any debate as to whether to try it and see what happens.
.
Q. What's the case against?
Here's one of Jason's scout-quotes, on the negative side:
"He'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/08
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the last I heard, the Mariners weren't budging on their "slot" $1.5M offer to Fields; Team Boras protests that they advised everyone, clearly, before the draft, that it would take $2M.
The difference in money isn't important to the Mariners. The slotting structure IS important to ML teams, and the Mariners have always been among the biggest backers of this structure.
If they let Fields go, they get a #22 overall as the comp pick -- which, at that point, will be losing very little, since Fields' "developmental" advantage (over a 2009 draftee) won't have been... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/08
6 Comments
At Lookout Landing, Graham has a fine post in which he discusses the pros and cons of moving Jeff Clement away from catcher.
(I hope he'll take this as a compliment, by the way, but in any case my impression of this LL author is that he's one of the four or five guys on the entire baseball internet who is so smart, that he knows he is dumb. And that's meant as high praise.Personally, I understand the value of knowing what I don't know, but can't seem to get the hang of it!)
This particular line made me smile:
Remember that the worst defensive catcher of all time was worth -10 runs.
This is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/08
4 Comments
As Spectator said,
In math terms, the team is calculating the “delta” between the value of an 850 OPS catcher at league minimum and the value of an 850 OPS 1b/DH at league minimum.
In non-math terms, if you have Yogi Berra or Johnny Bench, you're going to win a lot of championships. :- )
Give me a catcher who bats fourth and wins MVP's, and I will return flags on your investment.
………………..
The current discussion over Jeff Clement's proper position gives D-O-V a chance to get on its soapbox and remind that VORP/$ doesn't capture the effects of putting Johnny Bench on a baseball team (yes, I... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/08
1 Comments
It’s a popular fact that 90% of the brain is not used and, like most popular facts, it is wrong. [No] Creator would go to the trouble of making the human head carry around several pounds of unnecessary grey goo if its only real purpose was, eg, to serve as a delicacy for certain remote tribesmen in unexplored valleys; it is used. One of its functions is to make the miraculous seem ordinary, and turn the unusual into the usual. Otherwise, human beings, forced with the daily wondrousness of everything, would go around wearing a stupid grin, saying “WOW” a lot. Part of the brain exists to stop... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/21/08
4 Comments
Hold up your hand if you realized this: the 2008 LA Angels won 100 games ... with a 94 OPS+.
Or if you realized this: the 2007 Angels won 94 games ... with a 100 OPS+.
Neither team had an ERA+ over 111, either.
.................
In 2005 and 2006: it was exactly the same thing: offenses of 95-99, pitching around 110-115 ... 95 and 89 wins.
At what point do we start acknowledging that those guys down South don't need more than about three starters and a closer to own the division? At what point is it something other than luck, that they win all the time?
Last year it was 100 wins, slap me... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/21/08
1 Comments
Quoth the brainy new manager to Mr. Hickey:
"We could go without a third catcher, yes," Wakamatsu said. "But would we be comfortable in that situation? No. If we could sign a Willie Bloomquist-type (utility player) who could back up a lot of positions in an emergency, that would make it easier to carry a third catcher."
This is a quite remarkable thinking-outside-the-box statement by D-Wak.
Last year we were throwing crumpled paper cups around as to whether the Mariners could ever, for a single game, start Clement at DH when he was the only other catcher on the roster.
Note well that D-Wak... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/21/08
4 Comments
So Wakamatsu-san says that if Clement is DH'ing, he'd probably better have a 3rd catcher. LOL. Already I'm the guy's biggest fan...
But to make that 3rd catcher possible, he needs a 2-in-1 utility glove. Well, OK. I missed the memo that said, if you don't suit up 12 pitchers, then the umps enter a 9-0 score. But whatever.
..............
I'd have thought that Jerry Hairston Jr. would have been such a player. Hairston legitimately backs up at every position including SS and CF, in the sense that Willie backed up at all of those positions. But then something we read suggested that if... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/21/08
4 Comments
Amigo noted that Carp's 2008 weren't exactly hampered by luck, either, since he had a .335 BABIP. Here is his minorleaguesplits card.
The .335 BABIP for Carp last year certainly didn't suppress his numbers :- ) but .... for a lefty thumper who zings the ball around the lot, it might not be all that wild of a target for him, IMHO. Guys who hit the ball real hard frequently run nice BABIP's (though usually low contact rates with lots of strikeouts, too).
.....................
One good thing about Carp's splits is, I really like that 58/55 eye ratio against RH'ers for the year. Folks tend... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/20/08
5 Comments
One of our best buds, and one of the best analysts 'round here, would like to offer the opinion that Carp's performance has been better than I think it has been.
As you know, we don't split out this comparison in order to emphasize the "tale of the tape" between analysts. We split it out because we have a boss these days who counts articles :- ) and because this particular article is ... well, as legit as any others we tackle. For what that's worth. LOL.
Anyway, Let's! go To! the VID! e-o TAPE! How would you compare these two bushers?
When you state: Michael Saunders minor league... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/20/08
8 Comments
Q. What's the local consensus?
A. That Carp isn't a blue-chipper, but that he does become the best 1B prospect in the system. Also that he moves the ship into the direction of LH power and higher eye ratio.
.
Q. Does he have upside?
A. The idea has been floated that his ceiling is to be a Lyle Overbay-type hitter.
That's an interesting stylistic template -- .290/.370/.460, let's say -- good gap power, some walks, no speed. If Carp panned out, you could see the template there.
Actually, from where I sit, Lyle Overbay was always a lot more talented than Mike Carp seems to be. Overbay came... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/20/08
1 Comments
Q. Is there any good news?
A. That Zduriencik likes him.
I hate to be the wallflower here, but let's hope that Zoidberg likes Carp specifically, and not because Carp is left-handed. We're all interested in giving Mr. Z credit for targeting individuals, rather than vague ideas -- let's hope that Carp isn't an "idea" -- generic corner LH'er with power and some walks. Because if that's what he is, it isn't a decision that's any better than one Bavasi would make.
It's quite possible that Zduriencik sees something in Mike Carp that he specifically likes. Carp in 2008 took a real nice leap forward... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/20/08
2 Comments
Q. What is the attitude of the reincarnated jemanji towards the rest of the Mariners' blog-o-sphere?
A. Jeff Sullivan -- about whom we've always been politely appreciative -- cowboy'ed up for this tremendous article. In it, he encourages all of us to Rodney King it and Just All Get Along.
Granted, Jeffy is in an altered state-of-mind, daffily euphoric like the rest of us, over the GM and manager that he sees as a lifeline-tossed-over-the-side. :- ) But that's all to the good. He says,
It seems like, as we've put more distance between ourselves and last season, when it comes to points... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 12/19/08
6 Comments
Article by Jerod Allen
As the 2008 calendar year draws to a close, fans of Seattle sports breathe a collective sigh of relief. For those who root for Emerald City teams, this year can't end quickly enough.
To review the last three major professional team seasons in Seattle:
Mariners: 61-101, .377
Sonics: 20-62, .244
Seahawks (through week 14): 3-11, .214
So the Mariners, with their robust 38% rate of victory, have been by far the most successful franchise in Seattle in the past year. Of course, they had to spend over $100 million to reel off wins at that clip, which comes in at about... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/18/08
10 Comments
Speaking of defense, D-Wak says he loves it so much he might move Lopez to 1B for good. I was intrigued by that notion when we had slick-fielding and interesting lefty bat Luis Valbuena, and didn’t have Branyan-Shelton on the roster.
Hopefully he's trying to bluff his bosses into buying him a stick? :- )
Here's a good article from John Hickey on D-Wak's "bluff."
D-Wak is supposed to be pretty smart. He's got to see the problemos with putting Jose's bat at first.
Start by understanding that Dr. D is staunchly against the idea of putting a league-average hitter at a corner position so as to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/17/08
12 Comments
Q. What is the effect on a ballgame or a season …. if a player (or a lineup!) has a lot of K, BB, and HR?
A. He can't be defensed. And he can't be slowed down by a pitcher's park (relative to everybody else on the field).
Had you ever noticed that your Gold Gloves don't do you any good against Jim Thome?
TTO players don't get lucky*, don't need luck*, don't depend on BABIP, are not affected* by the fact that they're in Safeco Field or Dodget Stadium. It's them and the pitcher and everybody else can sit down. :- )
…………………..
Also, they tend not to run as hot-and-cold.
As you've noticed... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/17/08
3 Comments
Watching Clement a few times from the Cheney stands, we were perplexed at the 'net reports that Jeff Clement had woeful batspeed. We hadn't noticed, sez we, but hey, we'll check it. Never did get to Cheney after that.
Having seen Trey, the #3 draft pick in all the land, from the CF camera, here's the Tao of Bat Spee Do :- )
..............
As Bruce Lee pointed out a decade or four ago, handspeed has three components. The laws of physics, acceleration, and neurology do not warp inside 90-foot squares.
Lee correctly pointed out that the ability to land, or block, a punch, depends on three... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/17/08
14 Comments
Huge snowball fight over the question of whether defense is 15% of a baseball game, or 20% of it ...
Notice first of all that if it's 20%, then a player's offensive value is 2.5 times more important than his defensive value. That's before factoring in the questions of how much one defensive player varies from another, or how confident we are about our defensive measurements.
If defense is 15% of the game, then a player's bat is 3.3 times more important than his glove. 2.5 or 3.3? Taro, Sandy, and Matt are willing to pig-pile Dr. D on this one... :- )
++
The basic fact is that back in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/08
14 Comments
COEFFICIENT OF CONFIDENCE = 0.85: as many are aware, Mark Teixeira reportedly wants to get a deal done very quickly. He wants the Orioles, but they don't want him. They have lowballed him -- yep, that's the word -- at 7 x $21M (!) and stated that they're only players if they get a hometown discount.
With perhaps only 1 week to go before Teixeira decides, speculation has settled in at 8 x $24M. At least two teams, one of the Boston, have made firm offers to Tex that seriously outweigh Balmer's 7/$145. The Angels have also offered at least 8/$160M.
.......
Adam Dunn would be an AWFULLY... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/08
5 Comments
Just stream-of-consciousness, not POTD. :- )
.
=== "Sample Size" of One Dept. ===
I don't know if we're going to spend the next three years using Richie Sexson as the scarecrow to keep all of those nasty FA buzzards away. But just off the top of our heads, here:
1. Adam Dunn is lefthanded. I've heard that matters in Safeco. Jack Zduriencik seems to think that is an important factor.
2. Richie Sexson was a fairly extreme groundball hitter. Adam Dunn is a fairly extreme flyball hitter. You're not talking about similar swings here. Dunn isn't a topspin guy.
3. IF Adam Dunn had exactly... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/08
8 Comments
Doc…Delgado is NOTHING like Teixeira.
.
:- ) :shaking head:
=== Slow Down A Minnit, Johnny ===
When comparing two hitters, there are any number of criteria you can use to match them:
1 RH/LH
2 Walk rate
3 HR rate
4 Phenotype
5 AVG/OBP/SLG
6 Speed score
7 etc etc etc
Which of these you believe to be most important is a matter of judgment. Your judgment can be tested; we'll talk about that in a moment.
................
In comp'ing Teixeira, I'm looking first and foremost for these things:
1 Lefthandedness
2 Extreme talent (130-140 OPS+ demonstrated level of performance)
3 High OBP... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/15/08
33 Comments
Caveat emptor: We ain't gonna prove 'em, link 'em, or Google 'em for ya. :- ) Take it or leave it. Youse guys have known me since (as far back as) 1995 and you have a feel for how careful I am, or amn't, with info processing.
...............
COEFFICIENT OF CONFIDENCE = 0.85: Bidding on Teixeira is already up to $22.5M x 8 years and will go considerably higher. AL teams who are north of $20M already (!) include LA, Boston AND New York.
D-O-V and all iterations thereof are scoff-free zones. If you're one of those who thinks that LA, Boston and New York are idiots and you're the guy who's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/15/08
So, save this shtick for Thursday morning. :- ) This is Hiro Nakamura Time-Travel week.
..................
Q. What do you think of the idea of signing Daniel Cabrera and using him as a closer?
A. I think you all are going to be shocked at the contract that Daniel Cabrera commands. Are you still in the game if it's 4/$40 for Cabrera to close? Considering that he's never done it? Thought not.
And it could go considerably higher than 4/$40.
Cabrera has Randy Johnson-esque potential -- well, almost -- and one or two teams are likely to pay for the upside as though it had already been... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/15/08
3 Comments
Hiro Nakamura tripped on into 2014 for us to check out Mark Teixeira's level of play. As you can see, Tex (pictured right) was still celebrating the occasional base knock.
............
Sez the super-dee-dooper sabr-toothed Sandy from Braves'-land, regarding the idea of signing Teixeira a year before you hope to compete:
It's simply a bad ORDER to do things. You get a David Wright and Jose Reyes and Victor Diaz ALL showing *strong* indications of stardom at age 22/23 - then, by all means, go out and sink 6-7 years in a 28-year-old star.
Well, in some ways. It certainly isn't the order in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/15/08
14 Comments
... full of cash, to land a player like this one. Kevin Ess at Mariner Central pointed out the SI.com rumor that the Mariners are in it, early on, for Teixeira.
.............
Sports Illustrated recently printed (in some kind of paper-magazine form of SI) the article "Tex, Inc.", which contained a number of points I hadn't paid much attention to.
First of all, Teixeira is a good actor - for example, he amused the Angels with the fact that they could never catch him blowing a bubble or looking into the stands with his head down during the National Anthem -- nope, standing perfectly stock-still... Read More