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There IS Such a Thing as a Pitching Prospect
The Bad
I was getting set to write something about the Price/Taijuan deal, and that something was "Hey. Don't forget that Taijuan has a good chance of getting injured." And by "a good chance" we meant, like 40-80%.
So we were set to conclude with, "Hey, Dr. D wouldn't deal Taijuan for Price, but if the M's do that, we're maybe trading an injury for a superstar. Don't cry too hard."
A funny thing happened 'twixt the cup and the lip.
We googled up Victor Wang's original work on this, just to give you a quick link-er-oo. Wang added up all the WAR from the Baseball America Top 100 Prospect lists of the 1990's, and it presented a very sorry picture indeed. Here's one version of his work, published in 2008.
The 1990's pitching prospects fared SHOCKINGLY badly.
| Type of prospect | # players | Star? | Everyday | Fringe | Bust |
| Hitter #1-10 rank | 48 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 5 |
| Hitter #11-25 rank | 70 | 6 | 14 | 35 | 15 |
| Pitcher #1-10 rank | 26 | 1 (!!) | 1 (!!!) | 16 | 8 |
| Pitcher #11-25 rank | 59 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 19 |
HOLD IT, HOLD IT, HOLL-LL-DD ITTTT. That CAN'T be right.
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If that IS right, then trade Taijuan, K-Pax, Erasmo and every other arm you got for David Price. But there's a cognitive dissonance here: we know FOR A FACT that Taijuan's chance of being a star is better than 4%. What the hey is going ON here?
But, look back at the 1990's and, sure enough, the lists are a nuclear wasteland:
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1999 Baseball America Top 10 Prospects: Pitchers
- 4 - Bruce Chen
- 5 - Brad Penny
- 7 - Ryan Anderson (LOL)
- 10 - Matt Clement
10/240
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In the Shout Box, we've all gone from "wry smiles" to "playing with the Robinson Cano batting orders." HEH!!
.....
In this 2011 article, right after Matt Kemp signed an 8-year contract, Bill James answers a question "How likely is it that Matt Kemp will be an All-Star player in his 8th year?"
Paul Walker was a generous spirit.
When I met Paul Walker a couple of years ago, he had a chainsaw in hand. That's not exactly how you expect to meet one of the stars of the biggest action movie franchise in history, trust me. No, I wasn't even sure it was him at first. I mean, he was all sweaty and dirty and he looked pretty exhausted (so did his friends). But I can tell you first hand that Paul Walker was an incredibly generous man. When I learned of his tragic passing, I was so terribly saddened. Sure, I mourn the actor but I mourn the wonderful man that he was even more.
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The Franklin Mortgage & Investment Company, Philadelphia
Though this downtown
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Arnold’s Bar & Grill, Cincinnati, Ohio
If you happen to be in the city of
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Deep Pockets, Bling, and Ego Games
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Reasons the M's Might NOT Close Escrow
I think that everybody on SSI, every single poster, is skeptical about ever seeing a Robinson Cano press conference here. Off site, it's worse, of course.
I'm no different.
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Reason #1 that the M's MIGHT Close Escrow
The Yankees appear to be absolutely resolved about not giving Robinson Cano a deal anywhere near $200 million.
Just for instance, they fought a bitter war with Derek Jeter about money, were totally prepared to lose him, twice. They are now treating Robinson Cano -- in their minds -- more fairly than they treated Jeter. And we both know that Robinson Cano is not Derek Jeter.
He is not comparable to Derek Jeter. In the long history of Yankee icons, Jeter would remain standing if you whittled the line down to six or eight. To cave in further to Cano would widdle all over that relationship that they have with Jeter.
We're not saying that it's unthinkable, exactly, that the Yankees would go over $200M to keep Cano. But you, as an M's fan, should be reasoning that they probably will not.
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0.0 WAR and the Green Quadrant
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One of the things that Green-Quadrant thinkers focus on, is --- > safety.
You want to avoid the DOWNside scenario. A CEO may have several lawyers on his staff, all of whose primary function is to keep the CEO out of jail. Boeing has a Quality Assurance department, naturally, and they spend a penny or two to make sure that planes don't fall out of the sky.
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Yellow Quadrants, Theorems, Axioms and 0.0 WAR, Dept.
Fangraphs takes it as an AXIOM that a major league ballclub can return 0.0 WAR, at any roster slot, merely by being competent.
ax * i * om (noun) a statement or proposition that is regarded as being established, accepted, or self-evidently true.
But the Yellow Quadrant has taught us that it is okay to question dogma. :: smiles innocently ::
.......
Therefore: would somebody please point me to a web page that establishes this proposition?
I don't think that it was ever established that an ML team has 0.0 WAR available to it, at all positions, in all contexts, in all situations, for $0.00 (beyond the minimum wage). I don't think that was ever established, because I don't think that it is true. More than that, I think it is self-evidently false.
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