Country Capital
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MLE's
For your convenience, here are Zunino's major league equivalencies. Remember, the idea here is that an MLE is prone to predict future MLB performance about as well as MLB performance does. It's true that 25 homers MLE (which is like 52 in AA ball?) might not result in 25 homers, big league. But then, does every major leaguer who hits 25 homers, return to that level? Not even close.
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Worst-Case Scenario
Would be for Zunino to strike out 17 times in a row, get sent back to AAA, and benefit from getting a look at what he'll be facing.
Yes, Egbert, logically speaking, there are worse things. He could:
But you don't live your life based on precautions taken against mountain lions that drop down from the porch roof onto you as you step out of your front door.
The actual DWN scenario is for Zunino to pull some kind of Miguel Olivo, post-Freddy version, and go back to the minors humbled. But Zunino's makeup rules out an Olivo-type emotional implosion.
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Lemme compare it to martial arts. There are any number of 4th-degree black belts who have never been in a single actual fight. Guess who I'd want on my side? A "sensei" like that, or an ex-military brown belt who has been in twenty bar fights?
If you are a shotokan student, after your FIRST fight (or even tournament match), you are incomparably better able to defend yourself. And you practice differently! After a single fight, you know what you are up against. You throw out 900 things the sensei talked about, and you start focusing on what works.
As our alert and helpful readers have been pointing out in the comments, the draft signings are coming in fast and furious. Top pick D.J. Peterson appears set to sign today (Wednesday), and (bigger) little bro' Justin Seager was among the Tuesday signings.
As it stands, it looks like everyone that they had a strong interest in is likely to sign. Second-round pick Austin Wilson is reportedly in the midst of finishing school, but appears likely to sign after that.
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At 9.4, Felix' strikeout rate is easily the highest of his career.
At 1.7, Felix' walk rate is easily the lowest of his career.
At 0.6, Felix' homer rate is comically low, especially with the new catch-basin for homers that Safeco features out in LF. (Sandy is exactly right that Safeco's OPS+ and ERA+ indices will be warped for a while.)
At 11.7%, Felix' SwStr% is by far the best of his career.
Forget the numbers in this case; sometimes, over a short span, they reflect the underlying processes and sometimes they don't. What is actually happening is that Felix Hernandez is getting better. It made sense that he would. He has never quite pitched up to the sum of his parts. He's starting to do exactly that, in my opinion.
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It gets tougher all the time to figure out what is a fastball and what is a "changeup." This Brooks velocity chart turned out to be the key on Tuesday:
Going by this chart, the pitches are, loosely speaking...
In terms of side-to-side swerve, all of his pitches had fairly standard MLB(TM) movement. What was not "fairly standard" about his pitches was this:
Felix has proven that he doesn't need even 90 MPH in order to dominate. By "proven" we mean that he has "demonstrated the truth of it by evidence." But what happens if he does -- now that he has razor-sharpened his breaking stuff -- revert to his 94 MPH velocity?
It was a brutal week for Jack Zduriencik and his Z-Crew. Right?
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Last night's game was ugly on 9,000 fronts.... here, let's split this out.
The ump was partial to the Mariners, as the data confirms, and it helped doodly squat. Maurer's command is ... not. The AB's were mailed in. Morse's out at home plate was beyond pathetic - and then he got tweaked, sliding into a hickory stump that was planted in time for his arrival. They played a weak team that came in flat. It was horrible.
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There was one front on which the game wasn't ugly. Jesus Sucre framed many pitches and got many calls. The early returns are mixed, which is to say at SSI, hopeful.
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Maurer, by the way, hit 97 MPH, threw "change-sliders" right by lefties down-and-in even, threw a 74 MPH Aaron Sele curve ball that froze hitters solid. His command was a joke.
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I guess Gordon has been high on Sucre's defense for a couple of years. Jack Zduriencik agrees. And it took Dr. D about four pitches to /cosign.
It's funny that Terry McD brought up the point of quietness just this last week. Sucre is as quiet as death when receiving the pitch. He holds up the target nice and high, palm "up," and he has the "clamshell" snap in which he yanks a high pitch down into the strike zone without moving his arm.
He receives the ball as pretty as a picture. He nods back at the pitcher and generally radiates the idea of, yep, we got this. He tosses the ball back in Eddie Perez style, hitting the pitcher softly in the glove at the same comfortable spot each time. (Framing isn't even Sucre's reputation; he's supposed to be a thrower and a game manager.)
On May 24, Sucre's debut, it took about two batters for Joe Saunders to get into a nice tempo and rhythm. I'm thinking, okayyyyyy.
At the end of the first inning, Lance Berkman (!) was at the plate, and the count was 3-and-2. Saunders threw the 3-and-2 pitch about one baseball's width low ... Sucre, body perfectly still, used his big pleasant catcher's glove to snag the ball "moving his glove toward the strike zone," visibly "pulling" the pitch.
The ump rang Berkman up.
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Berkman was well-and-truly ticked off, argued hard, right in the first inning. Which kind of implies that he was shocked to see a 3-and-2 pitch, two inches low, called against him. This is consistent with my assumption that opposing batters are into a nice little "rhythm" of expecting to get sweeet strike zones against Mariner pitchers.
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For those readers interested in our cultural commentary, here is a Memorial Day article for the Ft. Lewis Ranger.
Fascinating goings-on at Royal Brougham, including a Justin Smoak announcement as we type this, and some kinda .450 OBP busher parachutes into Safeco. Oh, NOW the announcers go "Hey, I like this move!" Grrrr....
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Baker gives today's lineups as:
CF Chone Figgins
2B Dustin Ackley
Rf Ichiro
1B Justin Smoak
C Jesus Montero
3B Vinnie Catricala
LF Trayvon Robinson
DH Jesus Sucre
SS Carlos TriunfelLHP James Paxton
Team 2
SS Brendan Ryan
2B Kyle Seager
CF Casper Wells
LF Mike Carp
1B John Jaso
RF Carlos Peguero
DH Luis Jimenez
C Adam Moore
3B Francisco MartinezRHP Taijuan Walker
Let's see, that's fully six players starting who aren't in my Blues vs Whites varsity-jayvee game. Therefore the five players left out, in addition to Gutierrez, are: C Olivo, SS Kawasaki, 1B Carlos Guillen, DH/3B Liddi, and CF Saunders. Stipulating first that the lineups mean very little:
1. The absolutely number one question for me about these intrasquads, right now, is whether Vinnie Catricala looks confident defensively. If he enjoys playing third, that's good enough for me. If he's out there looking like they're throwing horse cookies at him from the batter's box, well, siiiiigggghhhhhhhhh.
