Texas

POTD Hisashi Iwakuma - Dr's R/X

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Q. If the M's got Fielder as well as Iwakuma, does SSI count that as a double offseason?

A. Without a doubt. This is a $12M pitcher.

Hey, where baseball is going now that the CBA's in place, what is $12M? Is that 2.5 WAR or is it 2.0 WAR? Iwakuma could easily earn $20M in Safeco, as Doug Fister was doing last year.

You're talking a Garza, Gio type impact probably ... Give or take the Taijuan, Hultzen and Paxton that WSN coughed up for Gio.

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Q. Bottom line?

A. The balm that salves our Doug Fister heartbreak. :- ) Hey, you don't suppose they had their eye on Iwakuma when they shed Doogie, do you .... Naaaaahhhhhh.

Last year, I was incredibly frustrated that just as we came up with a Michael Pineda ... Texas came up with an Alexi Ogando who, though not appreciated enough, was 95% of what Pineda was. Stealth mode.

Gilligan's Island

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MLB TRADE RUMORS (Professor): I have acquired interesting new information this Tuesday! With these facts, a breakthrough in my investigations appears to be imminent!

MEDIA (Gilligan): That's great, Professor!! :: turns to Skipper :: What did he say again? :- (

THURSTON HOWELL III (ML executives): (interrupting) Why, my boy, isn't it it obvious? The most lucrative solution is in a shorter term with a higher annual return.

MEDIA (Gilligan): That's what I said! :: turns to Skipper :: Isn't that what I say?!

SKIPPER (Boras): (booming voice) IT'S NOT ALL ABOUT MONEY, MR. HOWELL!

THURSTON HOWELL III (ML executives): AAAAhhhhhhh.... this is Scott Boras I'm talking to, correct? I'd hate to bargain with the wrong borrower, as it were! :chuckles:

Fielder DOES have to be convinced the M's can win, and quickly

And that's what the face-to-face meets are for.

Do you think if YOU went to lunch with Zduriencik in a fancy restaurant, that over the course of two hours, he could convince you that the Mariners are going to be contending, 2012 or 2013? You personally. How do you think you'd feel, after that lunch?

That's where Z discloses to you where the payroll is going. You remember his remarks about the owners now loosening the purse strings? That's what he tells you, the 'net rat. What does he tell Fielder?

Yu Go, C.J. - The Good

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=== C.J. Wilson ===

It is possible that Yu Darvish will pitch better than CJ Wilson has, and will join the Big Five as a Tier I starter in the AL. But it's asking a whale of a lot.

C.J. Wilson just finished a 16-7, 2.94 season. That's a 2+ ERA, in the Texas heat, in that stadium, after 223 innings were completed. I would bet against Felix Hernandez accomplishing that. Hey, I'd bet against Bob Gibson His Ownself accomplishing it. A 2+ ERA, full season, in Texas? Slap me silly.

Yu Go, C.J. - The Bad (for Texas)

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=== The Bad (for Texas) ===

I'll tell you what bothers me about the deal.

First roto league I ever played, everything was going great, and about July-August I had a chance to (pretty much) flummox one of the fish owners in the league.

Was going to deal Felix, Carp, Brendan Ryan and Brandon League for six guys I liked better -- a 14 WAR for 17 WAR type trade. You know, become even farther ahead in the talent war.

I instant-messaged with an older guy who'd won a lot of leagues. He said, "You're not really thinking of DOING that, are you."

.

Yu Go, C.J. - The Ugly

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=== The Ugly ===

We are told that when the Rangers win things, which is often, that they drink sparkling apple juice until Josh Hamilton (AA) and C.J. Wilson ("Straight Edge" Taoist with no alcohol or girls on the road) have showered, dressed and left the locker room. Then they break out the beer and champagne.

We are told that the other 23 Rangers are glad to do this. I am here to tell you that the first I have ever heard of pro sports athletes being glad to do any such thing. Any sport, any era.

C.J. Wilson went on ESPN, after signing with the Angels, and stated that every single Ranger in the locker room was his good friend. That he'd never seen a baseball team that gets along the way the Rangers do. etc. etc.

Embarrassing!

As far as we know, two teams circle the one chair, the music stops ... and the Cubs wave their hand and walk off. Naaaaaahhhhhh. ... can anybody even tell me who the second team is? Seriously. Number Two is now Boras' Rabbit Out of a Hat.

Grumpy sez,

Isn't it kind of worrisome that 29 other teams are NOT interested in Fielder? Are we missing something here?

My reaction too, Dr. G. Cool Papa Bell, and a few others, had predicted a soft market from the very beginning. Today he sez,

He's a bad long term fit for every NL club but that's just because of the rules. In the AL, the biggest spenders already have first base locked up and Toronto and Texas need pitching more than offense (and Texas doesn't seem to have the cash right now that every seems to think they do).

There just aren't a lot of teams that have the money to spend and are a good fit. The current situation was entirely predictable before the season so it shouldn't be scary that it has developed.

Would agree that the current situation was -- loosely -- predictable. But we would all agree that the degree of downside here is alarming for Boras.

Prince Fielder - Handicap, 12.13.11

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Q. What's the handicap now?

A. Boras is awfully unpredictable, and this winter we are getting a lot of stealth action. No guarantees. But some things look relatively safe to say:

MIAMI - They actually like Gaby Sanchez at 1B, and they do not have a DH slot available -- especially for Prince's after-30 years. You're an NL team, you're going to pay Prince $25M to play first base when he's 35?

The Marlins have consistently said they don't want him. At 8-10 years in contract length, NL action is a serious, serious question for Prince. This man is not going to be able to play first at age 34. Dr. D knows this from personal experience. :- )

The Marlins could still be in it, but I'd bet good money against it.

.

TEXAS - Ryan was very convincing in denying interest. It's true that they could lie low, but remember, they let C.J. Wilson go to their death-rivals. For 1/2, or 1/3, of the money that Prince would cost.

Think about it. In five years, you would let Michael Pineda go, for a piddling 5/$75, so that you could give (say) Joey Votto 8/$210?

You know what I mean. Would you feel good about swapping your Opening Day starter out, for a cleanup hitter at three times the money? Wouldn't you have just re-signed your starter and added another nice piece with the leftover $100M?

Fielder: 8 is the new 6

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I/O: Cubs want shorter years, higher dollars.

CRUNCH: I love fans. You know I do. But based on the chat threads you see ... fans would prefer 6/$175 to 100/$175.

Tell them that they could get Felix for 5 years, $25M per, and they'll put on their dancing shoes. Tell them that they could get him for 8 years, $20M per, and they'll fret about Felix' $20M being on the docket in 2019. ... the fact that they scored the last three years for $11M each won't register.

Think it through and you'll see that more years, fewer dollars, are to the ballclub's advantage. The clamor to keep the years down is purely an emotional reaction to the image of paying an injured player.

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In MLB, the math is (generally) correct to get more years on your contract. Reading the tweet-leaves, right now the Mariners are up for 8 years, while the Cubs, Nats and Jays are not.

Wild Card 2 - famous M's last words

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The 1995 and 1997 M's made the playoffs; in 1996, without Randy Johnson, they didn't. But under the new rules, 1996 would have been one more shot for Junior and Bone.

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=== Seattle Mariners ===

Do you realize that the 2007 Mariners, the 88-win club with Batista, Washburn, HoRam, and Jeff Weaver flanking Felix, that they would have made the playoffs? That team had a lineup jammed full of above-average hitters.

Well, they sort of made the playoffs. They would have had a playoff with the #6 team, the 88-win Tigers, and the winner of that game would have had an elimination game with the 94-win Wild Card1 New York Yankees.

Looking back at the schedule in 2007, the M's would have burned Felix on the last day of the regular season to beat Texas 4-2.

Then they'd have had a hot Jarrod Washburn go against Detroit in the elimination game. If Washburn had won that one, Miguel Batista would have gone against the Yankees in the Bronx ...

And then if the M's had won that, they'd have entered the 4-team AL playoffs against three 95-win teams: Boston, Cleveland, and the Angels. :- )

Hey, they weren't going to survive all that, but c'mon. As the rules were, they just went home without a fight.

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