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Hitter first, Power hitter second

Flipped open the MLB.com GameDay to see where the M's were at.  The box said 2-1 Rangers, which seemed unlikely.  How could the Texas Rangers field a full 9 players capable of taking a lead on this 2012 Mariners squad?

The count was 3-0 on Jesus Montero, and this was the graphic as the page rendered:

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So Nathan came into the strike zone ... whoops, offspeed, and it dipped down out of the zone last moment.  Montero took that.  Then he laid off a ladder fastball just above the strike zone.  Then, 2-0, here came another offspeed pitch into the zone... no, dipped down below it.  3-0.  

Montero then took the walk and shortly scored the tying run.  Order was restored and the Mariners were rightfully in control of the Rangers.

Gamers, Meet Your Match

If you’re a gamer, a techie, a trekkie, or a general geek looking for love, have you considered that you’ve been doing it in all the wrong places? I don’t mean bars, but even the most conventional dating websites might not be the best places for you to find likeminded love. You might be surprised, but a known place of relationship building is none other than the War of Warcraft game.

Image: 

Josh Hamilton - Hope for the Future

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You can find the first two articles in this series -- "Pivot Point" and "Syndromes" -- in the left sidebar.  Thanks!, Jeff

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Q.  What is your guess as to the future for the Rangers?

A.  Honestly would be very concerned about their clubhouse.  The combination of Texas Rangers + Josh Hamilton, going forward, would be a big question in my mind.  Often it's much easier to get a fresh start, new city, new people, and lose the baggage after something like this. 

Would want a professional's opinion as to how supportive the Rangers would be about this, and there are three possibilities:

  • The Rangers are VERY loving and forgiving
  • They're okay with it, not too ticked off about it
  • They resent it

Two of those are bad, and won't work.  One of those will work.

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Q.  How about from the point of view of the other 24 players?

A.  Not every sports team has a "We're all in this together" mentality.  But some do win because they're unusually joyful and together.

The 1995 Mariners?  It's not like Edgar went out there and helped Joey Cora hit, but still, they got on that charge to the wire and they were in the zone, playing at another level.  Luis Sojo smacked that double down the line on a tough pitch because his concentration was way up there and he's thinking, do something, anything, to get this job done.

The 2010-11 Rangers had two spiritual leaders, guys who served "maypoles" for the Rangers' very remarkable "the team comes first" mentality.  Those two players were, evidently, C.J. Wilson and Josh Hamilton.  Wilson's gone now, swapped out for a quasi-porn star type of personality, and Hamilton is now a negative factor, an unsettling factor.   What's next, Yoenis Cespedes?

If I'm Ryan, I'm attending to this issue of the 2012 ballclub's self-image.  Hopefully Ron Washington's extension will help with that.

The Balancing Act - Safeco Dept.

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=== Whither Pineda and Doogie? ===

Can depth overcome marquee power?  Sure, the same logic applies on the mound.  If you don't have multiple aces, you can certainly accomplish the same thing if you can -- and it's a big IF here -- have the best 4-thru-9 pitchers in the league.

All M's fans, by which I mean "Dr. D and G-Moneyball," have been fretting about the -3.5 WAR each that were subtracted when Zduriencik shed our second and third aces.

Spilled Milk, Dept.

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Top 10 Things About Prince Fielder Going To Detroit:

12.  Won't have to listen to MLB Network dudes talking about Texas' "Best Lineup Of Alllll (echo) Tiiiiime (echo)" (yes, really)

11.  Series of fun blog posts vs. Scott Boras as "Ben Stein Without Charisma" (seriously, nice job, Scott)

10.  Mariners no longer appearing in 20,000-vote MLBTR polls as "Other"

9.  Will not have to watch 2020 Prince Fielder as penance for watching 2012 Prince Fielder

This is the reason that Kevin Millwood is still dangerous

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This rat cheer:  POTD Kevin Millwood 2

 

Precious few 37-year-olds can still slice off a cut fastball.  Kevin Millwood's elbow ligaments are made of leather, and his pitches still break two ways, left and right.  He still has (had, at last sighting) the plus command.

Combine 4-5 pitches with command, and with MLB(TM) moxie and you've got a pitcher who WILL be effective.  We're not talking about a #6 finish in the Cy, but if Millwood comes to camp throwing 88-89 mph, you can bank the 2.7 WAR.

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=== Rode Hard, Put Away Wet Dept. ===

If you ax an MLB insider what is going on here, this is what he'll say.  The thing about both Iwakuma and Millwood is that they were both down to 84 at times last year.  It's more than possible that either, or both, is kaput, that's all she wrote.  SOME spring will come in which they're clocking 84 mph, lousy command, just done done done when your daddy takes your fastball awayyyyy...

Rangers: What Part of NO Don't You Understand, Scott

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In Mariner Analyst's "So You're Telling Me There's a Chance .... !" department, the East Coast internet chooses to interpret even this optimistically:

Bob Simpson, who along with Ray Davis is a Rangers principal owner and co-chairman of the board, said that the Rangers are operating at a deficit and will until the new TV contract starts in 2015 .... Fielder is not a viable option unless his price goes down and he would accept a backloaded deal.

"If they come around to something we can do, we'll take a look at it," Simpson said.

In one-syllable words, so we can understand it?  "NO, SCOTT.  WE'RE NOT GIVING YOU 7 YEARS AND $160M.  If you want a firm 5-year offer, let us know and we'll see what ownership wants to do."

Which is what every ML franchise, other than the Mariners, has evidently told Boras.  When the Nationals say "unless something changes," that doesn't mean "Unless we can bridge the gap between $160M and $180M."  It means "unless he wants to sign on our terms.  Unless he'll take five years, 6th year vested.  He won't, so we're out."

Every thing that every franchise, other than the Mariners, has ever said has amounted to the same thing.  Teixeira money, 8/180, just forget it.  We're not even going to consider it.  If you want to talk 5/120, give us a call.  We've heard the same blinkin' thing, over and over, for a month.

Rangers, Nats, O's Price Point: About $130-140M ?

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How much would these teams pay for Fielder?  Well...

Whether you're a Bill James fan or not, you will concede that he is now a certified MLB(TM) front office executive.  You can scoff at him honey, if you think it's funny, or at Dan Duquette if you like.  John Hart, Bill Bavasi, pick one.  But these guys can tell us what to expect from the owners.

James has been part-and-parcel of the Red Sox' free agent bidding for 10 years now.  He knows rather more about MLB(TM) front office thinking than we bloggers do.

Bill put a number on Fielder.  This number came down, I thought, like an anvil.

Fielder News

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Q.  Hey Doc - check this out:  "Prince Fielder Has Made It Very Clear He Wants To Be With the Rangers."

A.  Looking at the headline of the article, you'd think that Fielder had said that.  Actually Grant says that the fact that Prince has not signed yet --- > is what makes it very clear that Fielder intends to go to Texas.  

:- )

You get down into the article and it looks like nothing more than another round of "Seems logical to me" hypothesizing.  The entire substance is this:

But it’s very, very clear that this is where he wants to be. He’s waiting all winter, guys who normally have the kind of contract demands he has usually sign in December. We’re now in the second week of January and he’s still sitting there unsigned. It appears that he and Scott Boras have been waiting all along for the Rangers to get their Darvish situation settled so they could get down to brass tacks between Prince and the Rangers.

That doesn't say that Fielder made such a statement - it is simply Grant reading this out of the fact that he's still unsigned and Grant attaching this to the Darvish delay.

Or did I miss something there?

Darvish will be a Ranger, kiddies

 

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As far as Boras waiting for Darvish to go back to Japan, cutting the M's legs out from under them...

1.  If the Rangers are already above 5 x $10M, that's too close to Darvish's ask, to let the deal fall apart.  How much more is Darvish going to get, by going back to Japan for a year?  Is he going to score a 6 x $20M contract if he waits a year?  Of course not, so the year back in Japan does absolutely nothing but give Darvish a chance to get hurt, and a chance to spend a nice long year touring Japanese baseball as a half-gaijin deserter.

We can be 95% confident that Darvish will sign.  This isn't an Oakland/Iwakuma situation by any stretch.  Hisashi Iwakuma felt that he was being offered 30 cents on the dollar, absolutely being insulted by the Oakland A's.  And in my view, he was.  If the Rangers offered Darvish 4 x $4M he'd go back to Japan too.  That's not the case.

Rangers are at, like, 5 x $11M and Darvish is at, like, 6 x $14M, and there's a week left.  What do you think happens the last day or two?  They go down to the wire and cut a deal, and Darvish's agent knows that he didn't leave any money on the table.

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