Japan

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Before you read this, you should probably read that.  Will help you keep your nerves under control.  For this, not that.

Do we get a second draw at the 2006 sensation that Mark Lowe created?  Hit & Run sez,

Just saw two today who fit the bill [for fixing the bullpen].  Well I didn't see them. I listened to the spring training game and watched it on game day. Carter Capps was regularly throwing 98 and got a couple up to 99. He got a swinging strike on a change up and threw at least one curve. He was throwing strikes with both his FB and change. Among his two strike outs in three batters was righty killer Will Venable (who has USS Mariner stamp of approval). Hate to waste him in the bullpen but if you did break him in there he could give you multiple innings and he could soon be a closer candidate.

I hate to differ with G Money but Capps is my pick of non big three starters. Some time this year we may be talking about him being their equal (IMHO).

Stephan Prior threw 95 - 97. Didn't have quite the control that Capps had but like Capps got two strike outs in his one inning of work.

Lonnie's been pitching me on Carter Capps for quite awhile.  Never even looked at him before, but Lonnie's got YouTube videos on Capps and Snow.  Here's one of them and here's another from Mathis21.  Both are just a coupla weeks ago.  Lonnie, you da MAN!

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You guys remember the year that Mark Lowe was "just throwing the stuffing out of the ball" in AA, and they simply called him up and put him in the 8th inning?  Could be the same deal here.

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Q.  What exactly is this "innings eater" phrase?  Sounds like neither the reader nor the writer understand what they're talking about.

A.  In the second game of 2012, in Japan:  if you could just spot the A's 4.5 runs and take that, would you?  One coin flip, they get either 4 or 5 runs, and then the Mariners bat nine times.  Would you take that?

Maybe out of the #5 spot, you would.  And for some teams, 180 league-average innings that are simply removed from the pre-season equation, that can be helpful.  Many teams have pitching problems to solve, the worst of which are at the #4-5 slots.  If they could cut their losses and write off a 4.50, 5.00 performance there, they'd love to do so.

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Q.  What can a 37-year-old "innings eater" do, that Charlie Furbush cannot?

A.  He can step around land mines.  In individual at bats.  He knows, batter by batter, the ways in which he can get hurt.  He steers around those.

Suppose you're Albert Pujols and Charlie Furbush is pitching.  He misses to go 2-0, and now you're looking fastball, and you get one ...

Suppose you're Albert Pujols, and Kevin Millwood is pitching.  He doesn't go 2-0.  Every pitch, you get a 25% chance to guess the pitch right.  Cut fastball?  Whoops, here's the change curve.  Okay, next pitch... fastball outside?  Whoops, jam pitch.

You only get so many guesses before six innings are up.  Even when you hit the ball, there's a 70% chance it's at a fielder.  Six innings go by, and you just didn't get enough good swings.  You're down 5 to 3 and there was nothing to be done about it.

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Innings eaters also don't walk people.  Lots and lots of games! are decided by cheap walks that turn into rallies.  Saunders' double last night came after two cheap walks.  Kevin Millwood walked a grand total of 8 men in his 9 starts last season, 54 innings.

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Matty sez,

....are you buying that Kawasaki might be a little bit of a hitter?  That seems to be a new source of buzz...I am deeply skeptical due to his lack of demonstrated contact skill in Japan, but would welcome feedback.

To which Bat571 aptly replies:

Kawasaki wasn't a bad hitter in the JPL (avg .295 w/ .721 OPS), but with the tennis/placement swing like Ichiro without any of Ichiro's occasional power (14 HR in 5 years in smaller parks), most felt that MLB pitchers would just knock the bat out of his hands.

Well, it looks like his wrists are pretty strong, and though he's not hitting it far, he is placing it well. I wouldn't start him, but Ryan looks like he's going to be iffy, and if the alternative is Figgins in the lineup, I'm starting to like the idea of Kawasaki as our SS/UT guy with Seager available with a bigger bat when needed.

To answer Matty's question, I'm buying that he might be a little bit of a hitter yes.  By "a little bit of a hitter" I mean that he might outhit Derek Jeter, Elvis Andrus, and/or Jimmy Rollins this year.

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=== My Bad, Dept. ===

The first thing that SSI guessed about Kawasaki is that we feared he might get embarrassed here.  The basis was superficial:  if the great NPB hitters had been merely okay, what would a mediocre NPB hitter do here?  Also:  Kawasaki is one of the few guys who has showed up without NPB power:  would a hard inside pitch knock the bat out of his hands?

The second thing that SSI said was that it's all just guesswork.  There have been about 10 players to translate.  Would you put any confidence in Major League Equivalencies if only 10 PCL hitters had ever come to the bigs?  Hint:  No.

SABRMatt is an accomplished mathemetician.  He can relate to the fact that an MLE formula, based on 10 players only, could be worse than useless.  Such a formula could be deceptive and distracting.

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=== What's Changed? ===

Two weeks on, Kawasaki has shown that his ISO is low not because he is physically weak, but because he emphasizes a slap-and-run game.  He stays within himself.  It's like a golfer choosing to use a 3-iron off the tee, as opposed to a golfer not being able to hit 180 yards with his driver.

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1 Felix.  

Fun fact of the day for yer.  At the -62 runs per year Felix has established for himself, he could team with two 1.5 WAR starters and exceed the 2011 WAR of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, the three best SP's of the 2011 Boston Red Sox.

Felix + 1.5 WAR + 1.5 WAR    >     Boston's Big Three.  

::: MUFASA!! :::  

::: shudder ::: ... >:-}  Hey, say it again!

::: muuuufasssa! :::

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I/O:  A suggestion that the M's give Fielder a 3-year opt-out, with all the money paid after the opt-out.

CRUNCH:  Well, sure.  If the agent and player would accept this, that's what you'd do.  I imagine this proposal was made 5 minutes after the first opt-out discussion ever took place in baseball.  

Scott Boras is not doing this for the first time.  "We'd like a player option to void the contract in year four."  ... "Sure, Scott, we can do that.  Now how about $1 a year for three years and then $100M in year four.  And you decide whether to stay here."  

Ummmmmmm....

You remember Dennis Quaid, Undercover Blues, when Morty adopts a fancy pose with his knife.  "You know, that looks good on TV, but in real life you get better results if you .... "AAAHHHHHHH!" (charges, gets flipped over the dock into the water)