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Felix Hernandez Scouting Report: CURVE BALL

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With two out and the bases empty in the second inning Monday, the left handed Ryan Doumit (.285/.333/.466, a 118 OPS+ this year, a 130 OPS+ last year) came to bat against Felix Hernandez.

John Jaso, who has now caught 7 of Felix' last 8 starts, called for a first-pitch fastball on the outside edge of the plate.  I replayed it several times; Jaso did not move his glove even one (1) inch to catch Felix' 93 MPH fastball.  It literally was not possible for Jaso's glove to remain more stationary than it did.  Doumit did not arrive at a 118 OPS+ by swinging at first-pitch, 0-0 fastballs two inches outside the plate, so Felix' 0-1 count was "automatic."

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On the second pitch, Jaso called for an overhand curve ball, which Felix threw "back door" at 81 MPH.  The pitch started outside the strike zone and broke very sharply onto the outside one-fourth of the plate.  Doumit swung (1) well out in front and (2) well over the top of the diving pitch, at least six inches over it.  He did not "freeze" or buckle -- left hand hitters don't buckle on back door curves -- but he was out in front as if the pitch were a deadfish changeup.

On the third pitch, Jaso rejected the idea of an 0-2 "waste pitch," and doubled up the curve ball.  Felix "buried" the pitch, aiming it to begin as though it were heading for the strike zone, and then intending for it to break down out of the zone.  Doumit was fooled worse on the second curve than the first one, in part because he was "forced" with two strikes.  He swung farther out in front, and missed the pitch by a wider margin.  In fact Doumit swung as far out in front as you ever see an ML hitter do.  

Jaso smothered the ball in the dirt and then casually tagged Doumit out while leaning back towards the dugout.  Felix' tempo, the entire three-pitch, was brisk and bored, as though he were taking free throws in garbage time of a 118-79 basketball game.

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=== I Double-Dog Dare You, Dept. ===

A couple of facts about this at-bat:

If Hisashi Iwakuma Wants to BEAR DOWN, It's ALL RIGHT WITH ME

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Q.  How much extra time does Hisashi Iwakuma use to prepare himself for a pitch?

A.  He uses 3.3 seconds per pitch more than does the average MLB pitcher.  The average is 22.0.  Iwakuma's average is, you guessed it, 25.3.

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Q.  Do any other pitchers have "pace" that is slower than average?

A.  Have you augured Dr. D's mood yet?  That will happen when our #2 starter wins us our 8th in a row, holding the game to 1-1 late innings, and all they can blinkin' talk about is that he should pitch faster.  No, I take that back, not all they could talk about.  There was one comment, as they cut to commercial, along the lines of, "with five in the books, Iwakuma ... working a ... shutout?"  

Bah humbug.  Yes, the most deliberate pitchers in baseball, over the last few years, have been Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Jeremy Hellickson, Hiroki Kuroda, CC Sabathia, Shaun Marcum and now Yu Darvish and Hisashi Iwakuma.  All take 23-27 seconds per pitch.

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Q.  At 3.3 seconds extra per pitch, that's how much extra time in a game?

A.  It's 330 seconds extra per 100 pitches, that being 5.5 minutes extra to throw 100 pitches.  Wait a minute, though:  those are good pitchers on that list, meaning effective pitchers, meaning less success by the batters.  These deliberate, and excellent, starters allow fewer baserunners per 3-out inning; more time per AB, but fewer AB's per inning.  

The game is closer to finished after 100 pitches thrown by Hiroki Kuroda than it is after 100 pitches by Hector Noesi.  So you'll be able to escape the waking nightmare that is a baseball park a few minutes sooner, with Sabathia and Iwakuma pitching, because there are mercifully fewer at-bats and therefore mercifully less baseball.

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