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Will Montero Catch? These Two Q's Will Decide (part 3)

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=== Looks Better the Closer You Are ===

From the Larry Stone article:

Butch Wynegar, a former major-league catcher who has worked extensively with Montero as a Yankees instructor, dismisses the comparison to Piazza.

"Monty is not Mike Piazza," he told the New York Post last spring. "He is not going to be a hitter-only as a catcher. He is going to be an everyday catcher in the big leagues who can handle the catching. I truly believe that."

Law's focus on the running game is, am sorry to say, not on point.  The difference between the best and worst catchers in the game, on SB's, is +8 to -8 runs per season.  SB's will not play heavily into this issue.

Now, it could be that Montero is poor at EVERYTHING - pitch framing, pitch blocking, throwing - adding up to a -2.0 WAR scenario.  But the biggest question is still CERA.

Butch Wynegar, unlike bloggers like me and Law, has (1) been an ML catcher and (2) been on the field with Jesus Montero.  If there is one common thread in this debate, it's that the more distant people are from Montero, the less they like his catching.  The closer they are to him, and the more authoritative they are, the better they like his catching.

Did you notice this?  The less people have been around Montero personally, the more dogmatic they are about his not catching?  And the people who have worked with him, those people say, "Hey, there is no problem here."

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POTD Hector Noesi - UP, MID, LO

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Q.  How reasonable is it to expect 180 innings at a 110+ ERA?

A.  It's what Cashman expected, since he had already given Noesi a 2012 rotation slot.  Over a whale of a lot of competition.  

Cashman was sincere in anointing Noesi a starter for 2012, sent him down to get stretched out in winter ball.  He sold Noesi's rotation spot pretty hard.  The Yankees' brass and fans thought that Noesi was going to be a good young SP for them.  In New York that's saying a lot.

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Q.  UP scenario?

A.  Noesi throws hard in 2012, with command, and his slider continues to pop the parachutes on hitters.  In Safeco, he winds up with a Matt Garza kind of season, about 6.5 to 8.0 strikeouts, 110 or even 120 ERA+.

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Q.  LO scenario?

A.  The slider and curve turn out to be worthless, the sailing changeup gets hit, the 91 fastball is overexposed, and Noesi has to go back to the pen.  A fail is quite feasible here.

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POTD Tim Tebow, QB - Cultural Flash Point

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Personal assessment here.  It's my opinion; I could be wrong.

I don't think the media hates Tebow's Bible verses or kneeling as much as people think the media does.  They don't take offense when David Ortiz crosses himself after a home run.  Athletes can thank God for things in postgame interviews; reporters will roll their eyes, but that's just annoyance, not resentment.

I don't even think they take Tebow's Super Bowl pro-life commercial as the biggest issue, although that certainly was more than enough to make him persona non grata for life.  Compare Curt Schilling.  The commercial was a one-time deal and not much threat for the future.

My personal suspicion is that what the media hates virulently, and fears the most, is that Tim Tebow was Christian-home schooled.  I know that sounds weird.  Think about it for awhile, let it simmer.

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Talent vs Winning - the 116-win Mariners

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=== Most Talented Roster Ever ===

Just in terms of the talent they fielded for their Opening Day ballgame, which team was the greatest ever assembled?

The 1931 New York Yankees.

They had 8 players in the regular lineup -- of these, 6 were Hall of Famers.  The shortstop was not; he scored 107 runs and drove in 100.  The LF was not one of the HOF'ers; he scored 120 runs, had 122 RBIs, and 61 stolen bases.

In the starting rotation, they had 3 more Hall of Famers (Ruffing, Gomez, Pennock) plus the #4 starter, Hank Johnson.

If there was ever a team of Hall of Famers, the 1931 Yankees are it.  They finished -13.5 games behind the A's.  They underachieved.  Can we agree on this point?  If you sign off on that, you sign off on 1,000 other questions that relate to chemistry and bull hockey.

If Tex and LAA win 94 each, the M's job is ...

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... to win 95.

Back in the 1970's, Hall of Fame QB Fran Tarkenton wrote a book.  There was a paragraph in there, on page 138 or something, that stuck with me for thirty years.

Tarkenton talked about some game that his team lost by a low score ... I think probably it was the 1974 Super Bowl, which went to the Steel Curtain by a 16-6 score.

The sportswriters had snarked at him, after the game, whether he felt bad for his defense.  You get it?  The guys on the other side of the locker room deserved to win.  And you let them down by not holding up your end of the bargain.

POTD Kawasaki - translating NPB-MLB performance

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Q.  Can NPB stats be translated?

A.  They can't, no.  There haven't been enough players come over.  

Translations can't be done in the same way that major league equivalencies (MLE's) have, anyway.  Would we post MLE's if only ten minor leaguers had ever come up?

We remember that Clay Davenport once overhauled BP's translations based on one player -- after Godzilla came over, he ratcheted the estimates way up.  And said so.

With Dr. D's typical great modesty, he announces that this next table will equip YOU to translate NPB-infielder stats about as well as anybody else can do it.

;- )

Wild Card 2 - famous M's last words

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The 1995 and 1997 M's made the playoffs; in 1996, without Randy Johnson, they didn't.  But under the new rules, 1996 would have been one more shot for Junior and Bone.

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=== Seattle Mariners ===

Do you realize that the 2007 Mariners, the 88-win club with Batista, Washburn, HoRam, and Jeff Weaver flanking Felix, that they would have made the playoffs?  That team had a lineup jammed full of above-average hitters.

Well, they sort of made the playoffs.  They would have had a playoff with the #6 team, the 88-win Tigers, and the winner of that game would have had an elimination game with the 94-win Wild Card1 New York Yankees.

Looking back at the schedule in 2007, the M's would have burned Felix on the last day of the regular season to beat Texas 4-2.  

Then they'd have had a hot Jarrod Washburn go against Detroit in the elimination game.  If Washburn had won that one, Miguel Batista would have gone against the Yankees in the Bronx ... 

And then if the M's had won that, they'd have entered the 4-team AL playoffs against three 95-win teams:  Boston, Cleveland, and the Angels.  :- )

Hey, they weren't going to survive all that, but c'mon.  As the rules were, they just went home without a fight.

MLB's second wild card

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Took my first look at what the Shot-Callers are saying.  Was quite surprised at how serious the groundswell is.

Not surprising at all that Bud Selig -- the man who cried for mercy for 20 years in Milwaukee -- would sympathize with the poor l'il baseball fan in Seattle.  Was a little surprised, though, that he slammed down the uncompromising demands that he did.

Was even more surprised to grok that the 30 owners have a clear consensus on it.

And the most surprised that the union is going to rubber-stamp it, without trying to lever the concept into side payments to its advantage.

So, it's 2013 or even very possibly 2012.  

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