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A sabermetrically inclined Mariners fan from LL, or, in the real world, Hawaii.

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misterjonezI'm guessing Hanley really wants to return to Boston, and that any deal that's even close will get rejected since he's got a reasonable one on the table from his original team. But yeah, we had better have offered more than 5/90 or I'm disinclined to give credence to the big talk of adding bats this offseason. I assume (perhaps naively) that we did, in fact, beat the rumored 5/90, for whatever that's worth.1 hour 46 min ago
DaddyOI don't feel like writing it this evening, but I can imagine a nice comedic routine about the M's offseason acquisitions with Kevin Mathers playing The Chief and Jack Zduriencik playing Maxewll Smart as they do the old "Would You Believe..." schtick. Jack starts the routine with names like Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and ends up with two pickles and an Elmer Fudd cap.5 hours 24 min ago
Gordon GrossWish we'd see some movement on the Upton and/or Gattis front. You'd think we were trying to get our offseason moves approved by a committee or something.5 hours 58 min ago
Gordon GrossBuster Olney ranked Seager #4 amongst all major league third basemen. We really should have extended him last year like I wanted. ;) Better get that done this offseason before Arb.6 hours 1 min ago
Gordon Gross5/90 for Hanley? Jeez, I would have been thrilled with that. Our 2B/3B being filled with good players already may have dissuaded him - although we would have let him play SS for a few years first. So we're down to Kemp and a secondary add now? Let's not let all the musical chairs get filled, shall we?6 hours 14 min ago
SABR MattI'd have some interest in getting John Jaso back in Seattle to BC, FWIW6 hours 23 min ago
SABR MattSupposedly, Seattle is still interested in Tomas...hanging around the periphery on that front.6 hours 30 min ago
SABR Mattwow...I thought Hanley would be much more expensive than that...and now I'm annoyed that we didn't beat that offer. We *MUST* get Kemp. The small potato stuff (Craig, Van Slyke...vomit) is not going to cut it.6 hours 32 min ago
moethedogSaw that. Two things may result: Craig may be very available (especially if they get Panda, too) and you may be able to move and get Ethier/Van Slyke (LA may be tempted to keep Kemp until they fill a RH bat need).7 hours 15 min ago
merksLooks like Hanley is close to signing with the BoSox. Five years, $90 million is the rumored price.7 hours 22 min ago
moethedogAgree on that, Matt. My thought was that Freiman/Davis/Butler rotate through 1B/DH....Moss is int he OF. Vogt seems odd man out to me.8 hours 45 min ago
SABR Mattand FWIW, the As have way too many guys to play first base for Davis to see significant time. Freiman, Moss, Vogt, Davis, Jaso, Butler...A couple of those3 guys can SORT OF play the outfield (Vogt comes to mind) and Jaso can be the back-up catcher maybe. But...Butler has the DH spot completely locked down and will probably only occasionally get benched against the toughest right-handed bullpen match-ups and when he needs a day off. So that leaves about 15% of the DH at bats and the first base at bats to go to Moss, Freiman, Davis and occasionally Jaso...with Vogt probably relegated mostly to the outfield.9 hours 42 min ago
SABR Mattall that was NL...he'll die in the AL...too many holes in his swing.12 hours 1 min ago
moethedogI've always thought Ike Davis was better than a decent guy to have. Hits lefties like a rusty gate, but his career #'s vs. RHP are .254-.357-.456 (.813). LoMo's are .247-.336-.436 (.768). Even in a "down" year, Davis will was at .765 OPS last year, vR. LoMo was at .695! (His year was carried by his 95 vL PA's: .333-.368-.478). Basically they got him for free, too. Watch them platoon him with Nate Freiman.12 hours 38 min ago
SABR Mattmeh...I don't think he'll do much.13 hours 51 min ago
merksA's acquire Ike Davis for international slot and cash.14 hours 7 min ago
Bat571I think Condor is working back into the good graces, starting with the agent change. He will be expensive for a 4th OF, but if he is the LF (e.g., if Ackley goes for Gattis), I think the Ms will keep him around because of the versatility. With Gattis (~~) able to play LF, Condor could move to CF if needed - not optimum, maybe, but more than adequate until Jones or Kivlehan could be summoned. I agree that the Ms should (and will) put Kivlehan in the OF part-time starting in ST. He'll put in the work and will be pretty good by the AS break, and will get better. All you could ask for.14 hours 56 min ago
moethedogOne Cardinals' site giggles over the acquisition of Ty Kelly. Sigh: http://www.stlcardinalbaseball.com/a-redesigned-offense BTW, unless you guys figure than James Jones is on the opening day roster or that Bloomie gets the role, we still need a 4th OF who Mac will be willing to use in CF. That was certainly not true with Ackley or Saunders, and one of those guys will be gone. Kemp would do, not so Upton. Ethier has had nearly 120 CF starts over the last two years, BTW. Brad Miller, given the opportunity, would could handle CF, too. Kivlehan will get some early Tacoma CF time...but we need one for Seattle. Perhaps we keep Saunders and he goes there. Not Jones, please. I've soured....20 hours 4 min ago
Bat571And, as I noted in another shout, a deal for Kemp will probably also cost at least 1 bullpen arm; which could mean another chunk off the final amount if it's Wilhelmsen, and a trim if it's Furbush. I'm making the assumption that Erasmo is gone, either to Atlanta in trade or, being out of options, is traded for a propect; that Ackley makes the most sense for the Braves in trade for Gattis; and that Taylor would be an MLB piece in a trade for Kemp. I assume any remaining pieces will be prospects (Guerrero, Morban, Choi), even if Terdoslavich would come with Gattis.1 day 9 hours ago
Bat571Just using the TNT tool -- http://www.thenewstribune.com/2014/11/04/3467689/seattle-mariners-2015-free-agent.html -- and adding Gattis ($0.5M - using another FA as proxy), Kemp ($16M - using another FA as proxy), Young ($7M), and HanRam ($22M), and then manually subtracting Ackley, Taylor, and Erasmo ($3.8M total) gives ~$137M. Take HanRam's $22M out and that gives ~$115M, which is $8M more than the $107M. The TNT tool uses the $5M figure for Seager and the $7M figure for Iwakuma. Given the offers for Martin and VMart, I think there's more than $8M in headroom, in any case.1 day 9 hours ago