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rick82This site is screwier than ever. Anyway, just noticed (by compete accident, believe me) there was a wonderful thread on music going from Spec's post. I just added my piece. Didn't want folks to miss it.11 hours 34 min ago
FungineerDid Edgar really decline so rapidly? Starting at age 37 (2000), his OPS+ for the next four years was 158, 160, 139, 140. Fairly consistent production to the age of 40. Even age 41 wasn't terrible (OPS+ of 92 supported by an OBP of .342).15 hours 40 min ago
GLSI don't feel at all compelled to be fair to the M's about RJ.18 hours 29 min ago
DaddyOAnd in fairness to the M's re: RJ, it could be they felt that Griffey and A-Rod contract negotiations not far in the future, they couldn't sign all three to mega-contracts, so they got what they could for a star pitcher having bad season who had a bad back, this in order to give them a better chance to keep Griffey and hopes to retain A-Rod. And at the time they couldn't have known Edgar would decline so rapidly either.21 hours 17 min ago
DaddyOYeah, that's why I said "Lotsa reasons, not all one-sided." But you're right, but I'd guess A-Rod was 85/15 himself, Griffey was 50/50, and RJ was 75/25 M's. At least that's my take with my recollections. Could be wrong.21 hours 21 min ago
diderotDaddyO: agree entirely on your RJ analysis. But not on the other two. I think Griffey saw the new stadium...realized he wouldn't hit enough homers to satisfy him...and decided he was out at all costs. For A-Rod, the stage here would never be big enough. Needed the bigger contract...bigger exposure. Just my interpretation.1 day 39 min ago
DaddyOMy recollection is that the org felt Randy either wasn't sound physically or quit on them in 1998 (4.33 ERA 9-10 record, nothing remotely like those number over the preceding 10 years). It's interesting that once traded to Houston he went 10-1 with a 1.28 ERA. Bottom line the org soured on Randy, and Randy soured on them. There was a lot of that stuff going on for the next few years. The M's didn't want to pay the salaries their superstars commanded either. So we lost Randy in '98, Griffey in 2000, and A-Rod in 2001. Lotsa reasons, not all one-sided, but the bottom line is the Mariners didn't appreciate what they had like they should have. Finally Lou got so frustrated he left after 2003. The M's paid for their organizational myopia over the next spades they paid. So why should Randy wear an M's cap? I wouldn't if I was him.1 day 3 hours ago
John PierceIt looks like Castro signed with the Strohs for $4 mil.1 day 3 hours ago
diderotNoting that Shadler's site today identified six breakout pitchers in the AL this year. Two of them were named Paxton and Elias.1 day 3 hours ago
rick82Probably the right thing to do: represent the organization that showed the most faith in you. I think his connection with the fans was/is strongest here, however.1 day 5 hours ago
MtGrizzly@RyanDivish: As expected, Randy Johnson will be wearing a Diamondbacks hat on his plaque in Cooperstown.1 day 9 hours ago
SABR MattAgreed bat...I'd love to have Castro I'm here now...I hope Z is still looking for ways to improve the club1 day 21 hours ago
Bat571Astros now definitely have too many catchers and are looking for pitching depth. I wonder if an Erasmo Ramirez and one of Victor Sanchez/Gabe Guerrero/Ketel Marte package would get Jason Castro? A 27yo LH hitting catcher might be a nice return, since Sucre still has an option and Ramirez doesn't. Let Castro fight it out for playing time, while Sucre is still available and while Hicks gets his AAA ABs.1 day 22 hours ago
SpectatorLars Huijer -- the Dutch Master -- was very raw coming over from Holland as a teen, but he put together a very promising season at Everett at age 19. Not a K machine, but very good at limiting hard contact (only 2 HR and .058 ISO-against). They pushed him hard up the ladder in 2014, and not surprisingly he struggled at High Desert. It's interesting to me that Theo Epstein's crew picked him off the list of low-minors arms to take a chance on. Of course, Jack and Mac are constantly replenishing the supply of intriguing arms, so spinning off the surplus for MLB spare parts is going to be part of the story for awhile.2 days 8 hours ago
rick82Orcs - always formidable, but throw a few top of the line warriors their way and they'll fold like a cheap suit.2 days 9 hours ago
SpectatorWell ... two of my once-favorite pitching prospects gone (maybe) in a flash. Anthony Fernandez was ahead of Roenis Elias when they were both at High Desert, though Elias always had better "stuff." An-Fernan got the call to AA first, and opened his AA career with 9.0 IP, 1 ER then 9.0 IP, 0 ER. That's how he got on the 40-man. But that was his high-water-mark and he hasn't been "right" since 2013. He'll probably clear waivers and return to the M's org, and it's actually kind of surprising that he's been on the 40-man this long.2 days 9 hours ago
TaroI actually think they have an offense similar to ours in overall production. They have better Obp potential vs our power. We have more stars, but they have better benchies and much better depth. They're defense is better whereas we have a couple star arms. It'll be close.2 days 10 hours ago
SABR MattI don't think the As are contenders in the slightest. Their line-up is dreadful...lacking in any power potential and not super-high in OBP generation either. Their defense may be slightly better than 2014, but their bullpen and rotation were already close to maxed out last year and they're relying in guys who came out of nowhere last year to produce well for them (especially Chavez). I don't think this formula will work2 days 11 hours ago
TaroWhen it comes down to it, the As in 2015 look pretty good and could contend for the division if things break their way. Only $24M on the books in 2016. The team is has tons of club-controlled players and flexibility, but ZERO stars. Its the kind of approach I've never seen before. Maybe long-term, Beane is looking for a breakout from his spaghetti, or maybe he trades it and/or spends. It'll be interesting to watch.2 days 20 hours ago
TaroZobrist, Kazmir, and Clippard all have a shot of being worth QOs. Also I think Clippard was a safer bet to be valuable in 2015 than Escobar. I think Beane tries to extend Zobrist reasonably, but if it can't be done he'll collect the pick.2 days 20 hours ago
SABR MattSo...the As revert to starting Zobrist at SS and Semien at 2B. I really...really don't understand what is happening in Oakland.3 days 2 hours ago
SABR MattLOL!! The magic mystery Billy Beane show continues to confuse the heck out of me. Beane FINALLY blugged his gigantic seeping wound at shortstop with Yunel Escobar...only to immediately trade him for...Tyler Clippard????? WHHAAAA??? WHY on earth would you DO that?? The As bullpen was already top drawer...what the heck is Beane THINKING??3 days 2 hours ago
Gordon GrossLol moj. Gattis cost the Astros two of their top-8 prospects (BA rankings). Essentially, it would have cost us Elias, Austin Wilson and probably Victor Sanchez to top that deal. Or if you prefer to match it as straight up as you can, thats #3 (Marte, but because they have their own Marte it would be #2 DJ or #4 Kivlehan), #8 Gohara, and a low minors strike thrower with Ks like Yarbrouch (untradable at this exact point, but let's pretend). I can see why Jack went with Plan B instead of trying to keep bidding. The AL West will be interesting this year.3 days 5 hours ago
SABR Mattthat would actually make sense...Shields or Scherzer on that club would make it borderline-up competitive.3 days 5 hours ago
mojicianOr maybe they like having Scott Feldman as their opening day starter.3 days 5 hours ago
mojicianThey need uncle Crane to get out that checkbook for Scherzer or Big Game James. I bet that the Astros are the secret team who have already promised Shields $110 million. If you were Jim Crane, and you were an ex pitcher, and you owned $2 billion and the Astros, what would you do? He probably didn't buy the team in hopes of it being a cheap loser doormat club.3 days 5 hours ago
SABR MattGattis would be used as the Astros' left fielder...not their catcher. But still, this Astros club will hit a little bit in 2015. But can they pitch a little bit?3 days 5 hours ago
DaddyOHey, the M's counter by trading for Mik "Kick 'im" Kichkam. Not exactly an encouraging last name for a pitcher. Apparently opposing MLB batters helped him live up to his moniker, booting him around for a 10+ ERA.3 days 6 hours ago
mojician'Stros trade for Evan Gattis for players nobody has ever heard of. Gattis has 4 years of club control left. Gattis slugs .490 at catcher. Thought 1: Gattis's first two years are way better than what Napoli and V-Mart produced in their rookie and sophomore seasons. Thought 2: The Atlanta Braves must really disregard their fans' feelings. Thought 3: Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid.3 days 6 hours ago
rick82Been unplugged for a week or so. Catching up. Best takeaway so far out of all I've read is this: Nuremberg 1561: cool. Oh, And I wanna hang out with DaddyO and Spec sometime and groove on whatever music they want to lay on me.4 days 10 hours ago
SABR MattThat would explain the lack of zip on his throws this year.4 days 12 hours ago
Lonnie of MCWord is that Manning has been playing with a quad tear for the past few weeks.4 days 22 hours ago
SpectatorNate Silver concludes the best post-season quarterback of the Super Bowl era is ... Eli Manning. Peyton is 28th. Brady 6th. days 3 hours ago
SABR MattI think Manning's problem is that he lacks creativity. He is a one-dimensional pocket-passing machine of a QB...he's really good at that when his arm is right...he's precise and proficient and powerful. It makes him a phenomenal weapon when he's got the tools to throw to and he can execute physically...but if he's a little off on his rm or has some other physical issue...or if his support cast isn't up to it...he can't adjust and do something different. Look what Brady just pulled off in that comeback against the Ravens. They were giving him all kinds of problems early in that game and then he just started making s&%! up on the fly at complete random to get through. Manning can't do that. It means he will flame out more quickly as he ages out...and it means he will struggle in the play-offs against better teams who can take away his tools downfield or get enough pressure on him to take away the pokcet passing game.5 days 10 hours ago
MtGrizzlyYeah, Manning didn't have any mustard on his throws for the last six games or so. I suspect injury. Of course, his boss Elway won two Super Bowls with greatly diminished arm strength.5 days 12 hours ago
SilentpadnaI'm not so sure about that misterjonez. To me he doesn't look the same physically. He had almost nothing yesterday. No zip. Very little accuracy. He made a few throws, but he just didn't look the same. He may not have the "it" that Brady has, but I don't think yesterday had much to say about it. I don't believe he physically can do it throughout a full season anymore. If he can, he sure didn't look like it this year. Maybe it was a specific injury or maybe he's done. Only he knows that, but my guess is that he gets a shot in that neck area almost every day. Again, only a guess. I would also guess that he would have won more SB's had he played in NE (not than Brady necessarily, but maybe close).5 days 13 hours ago
SABR MattGB's O-line and D-line are both horribly inconsistent...Seattle may have chances to get pressure on Rodgers...and if they do, I assure you...they will get to him. :)5 days 14 hours ago
misterjonezI think there has to be something to the whole storyline about Peyton lacking *something* that Tom Brady has. I have no idea what that could be but, without employing too many cliches, it's clear that for whatEVER reason, Peyton isn't the Top Dawg in playoff football. Still, he's one whale of a quarterback. As for Dallas going down, yeah, I fell quite a bit better going up against GB at CLink than I did about Dallas coming to town again. It's just a much better matchup for the Hawks; GB's run defense is going to have trouble with our hydra in the backfield.5 days 20 hours ago
SABR Matter...Peyton Manning...I must be tired.5 days 20 hours ago
SABR MattGood news this weekend...glad to see Dallas go down in flames and equally glad to see Eli Manning choke in the clutch yet again.5 days 21 hours ago
MtGrizzly", the league’s official website, reported Saturday that the Seahawks are so serious about getting that done that they are prepared to make Wilson the highest-paid quarterback in the league."6 days 11 hours ago
SABR MattI don't think Zobrist and Escobar make the As contenders, no. Their lineup is still awful6 days 13 hours ago
muddyfrogwaterXLIX Pats 20 Hawks 246 days 22 hours ago
TaroWhat a wierd offseason for the As. They are now in the mix at the top of the division with the Angels and Ms.1 week 12 min ago
IcebreakerXHope SABRMatt is okay ;)1 week 3 hours ago
moethedogHe's got to roll Zobrist into something else.1 week 5 hours ago
MtGrizzlyIs this what it would look like if Beane started going all 'Howard Hughes' on us?1 week 5 hours ago
mojicianBeane must have escaped from the space dungeon where they had him locked.1 week 5 hours ago
Gordon GrossRobertson is most like Taylor, I would suppose, though because Taylor wasn't a first round pick he wasn't as highly rated. Robertson was also a prep choice, so he's still growing into his adult production. Can't figure out what Beane is doing with all his top guys, I guess. Seems like very short-term returns when he's already (apparently) decimated his short-term potential.1 week 7 hours ago
Gordon GrossSo, Zobrist and Escobar to the As, Jaso heads back to Tampa. The As kicked their most recent top SS prospect Robertson in as well. So nope, I still can't figure out the plan in Oakland.1 week 7 hours ago
SpectatorRe possible Daniel Robertson comps among M's prospects. Julio Morban hit really well in the Cal League at 20, but struck out 20% and obviously was not a shortstop. Ketel Marte was in AA at 20, but I'm not sure he could slug .471 if he were allowed to hit from second base. In other words, A's gave up a lot.1 week 7 hours ago
SpectatorZobrist and Yunel Escobar to A's for Jaso and two prospects. Daniel Robertson is ranked No. 1 in A's system by; Boog Powell (not the old Oriole) was No. 11 but is coming off a drug suspension. Robertson is a first-round pick coming off an .871 OPS at High-A at age 20 as a shortstop. Only struck out 14.6% of PA. That's high calibre stuff, Cal League notwithstanding. Can't think of a recent Mariner prospect who would compare to that. Interesting that Jaso goes full circle back to his original team.1 week 7 hours ago
moethedogInteresting Lonnie.....Of all the M's bat/glove prospects, those 4 would probably be the ones that I would think will first make it to Safeco. Hicks included, as long as we don't sign a veteran catcher.1 week 13 hours ago
Lonnie of MCI know I'm getting into this conversation late, but concerning Geoff Baker and the HOF vote, I happen to know for a fact that Baker believes that Gar was juicing at least for one season with the M's. Also, the M's have John Hicks, DJ Peterson, Patrick Kivlehan, and Ketel Marte in Virginia right now going to a MLB prep camp where they will learn how to handle their money, how to deal with the press, and get the low-down on what to expect. With that in mind, you gotta think that the M's are thinking that Hicks will be seeing time at the MLB level at some point this year. I'm hoping for a September call up rather than something stupid like an injury...1 week 20 hours ago
moethedogRyan Lavarnway is again available as a BU catcher. Shield you eyes from his ugly '13 and you can see a decent prospect who can wear a 1B glove, too. He was a pretty good thrower in the minors but in the bigs he's only thrown out 16% of the guys running on him. I don't know anything about his pitch framing. He would be an offensive upgrade over Sucre, likely. he's hit in 'AAA and shown some bat (minus '13) in the bigs. Perhaps a defensive slide, however. Worth a minor leage contract...but he's likely to get something better from someone else. If Zunino were to get 15-Day'ed, those 15 days of Sucre's bat would be pretty ugly, unless we're ready to give Hicks the call this year.1 week 1 day ago
SABR :)1 week 1 day ago
SpectatorMatt ... the M's might consider re-signing either Endy Chavez or Franklin Gutierrez as OF depth. That good enough?1 week 1 day ago
SABR Mattthey had him playing first in interleague games one year to keep his bat in the line-up and he hurt himself...and then he stopped appearing in interleague games.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattLOL...I'm enjoying the Konspiracy stuff...but baseball would be good to see. :)1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiBaseball article up in an hour. Vot next?1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattMartinez was indeed a decent third baseman in 1992. After which he severely injured himself in ST and was never the same in terms of speed and range. I remember a game in which Martinez collided with I believe John Marzano? It was some back-up catcher. While he was playing first base...and I remember Piniella saying they weren't going to make him field again after that happened because it was too risky.1 week 1 day ago
Bat571Hopefully, Randy and Junior will keep up the drumbeat that Gar was as essential to the Ms success as they were - and even more so, when you consider that 2001 was after Randy, then Junior, and then A-Rod had left, leaving Gar as the real heart of the team and lineup.1 week 1 day ago
Bat571Gar was actually a decent 3B, but there were some near-misses going after pop-ups, and then the really bad hamstring tear while running the bases. After that the Ms pretty much kept him at DH, and he kept his hammies warm on the stationary bike between ABs, rather than being in the partial squat every inning at 3B. But I have little doubt that he could have continued to play 3B or 1B IF THE OFFICIAL RULES OF BASEBALL had not allowed the other solution.1 week 1 day ago
SilentpadnaHe tweaked his hammy really bad playing up at BC Place in Vancouver one time. I remember that being a big deal. A lot of players complained about that place. At that point, the M's decided (smartly) that DH was a better risk. Again, had the position not been there, he would have played the field. He did come the majors a 3B, blocked for a few seasons by the immortal Jim Presley I believe.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattWell, didn't the Mariners try Martinez at first base a few different times, only to have him spike himself or run into the catcher or trip on the base or some other retarded thing each time?1 week 1 day ago
SilentpadnaIf you can't have DH's then you shouldn't have AL pitchers. The DH debate is stupid on its face. Does anyone think that if the DH didn't exist, that Gar wouldn't have played? Most of these guys making opinions on the subject can't even peal back the layers of their own thought processes - which is common in all debates, not just this one...1 week 1 day ago
diderotGordon, no need to qualify the Baker reference. He isn't a devil's advocate--journalistically, he is the devil. There is no story more important (in his mind) than he is. The check on this: historically, how often has he been opposed to how often he's been wrong? He's sad.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattThe HOF is discredited wholesale by the inclusion of Red Farrell (ACCIDENTALLY elected)...from that moment on, there was never any reason to take it seriously.1 week 2 days ago
jemanjiYeah, everybody has some quirks and biases, Baker fewer than others IMHO. We even heard John Clayton say some mindless stuff* on the radio the other day. There were a few years when I argued that Rod Carew wasn't a great player. Geoffy's position on Edgar -- one of the two of us is just spacing out. :- ) … that said, Edgar has already gotten 1,000x more glory than any mortal man, including any of us here, and I don't weep for him. Never understood the saber dudes who tweet "I'm going to spend the next year working my buns off for Joe Shlabotnik's HOF case."1 week 2 days ago
Cool Papa BellIt's really something that we can have relief pitchers in the Hall but we can't have even one DH.1 week 2 days ago
Gordon GrossBonds, Mantle, Pujols, Big Mac, Dick Allen, Willy Mays, Big Hurt, Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Man-Ram, Miguel Cabrera (for now), Bagwell, and Stan the Man Musial. That's the ENTIRE list of guys who outhit Edgar since 1950. Excepting steroids and being a jerk, are they any numbers reasons why ANY of those guys shouldn't be in the HOF? At least half of them are inner-circle dudes who are THE legends of the last 75 years. Allen's career was too short at only 7300 PAs, maybe, but Gar had 1300 more than that. I dunno man - I understand the NL hates the DH, but it's been a position longer than I've been alive, so I guess I have trouble with that argument. The one that Gar isn't worthy is even harder to grok.1 week 2 days ago
KingCorranThat being said - thanks for the excellent breakdown on where Geoff is coming from. That greatly simplified and clarified my understanding of his opposition!1 week 2 days ago
KingCorranDHing to stay healthy never made any sense to me. Isn't 1B an insanely easier defensive position, with greatly lowered risk to health? We don't dock an SS or OF from HoF consideration when they have to move to 1B later in their career. I don't see why DH should be a significantly different thumb on the scale of 'health gained' just because we don't SEE them out there saving their poor limbs every other half-inning.1 week 2 days ago
Gordon GrossGeoff is a hardcore stat counter and devil's advocate. Gar doesn't have the longevity or counting stats he wants, and if you counter with "But his rate stats are LUDICROUSLY high" he'll tell you that it's only because he was DHing to stay healthy or, ironically, that Gar didn't start off young enough for his growth curve to show in his big-league stats (ie, they are artificially inflated because he began his Major League career near his peak). So you can't win. Some people just hate the DH, or prefer longevity over yearly impact. For the years Gar played, there were maybe three RH hitters on his level: Big Hurt (HOF), Bagwell (Andro is keeping him out atm), and Man-Ram (roids). Pujols started his career at the end of Gar's, McGwire wasn't as good... almost nobody was as good. Maybe he'll have better luck with the Vet Committee.1 week 2 days ago
KingCorranGranted, the man couldn't find 10 worthy candidates to vote for on this year's ballot (allowing for the no-steroid position). But if Geoff, whom we tend to hold in such high regard, can work here this long and remain unpersuaded... it's an uphill battle for anyone else from the East Coast who doesn't have the local ties. Shoot - I still can't believe that a detail like '4th-all-time RH OBP' doesn't end the conversation by itself.1 week 2 days ago
KingCorranIt's going to be hard to convince the electorate-at-large if we can't even convince Geoff Baker.1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattThe HOF shouldn't care about east coast bias...the HOF should be fair. It isn't...but it should be.1 week 2 days ago
jemanji"If you have to be an immense offensive talent to get in as a DH, then Gar qualifies easily" -- that's a showstopper. How much better a hitter did you want him to be? How much better was it *possible* for him to be? … And: wearing one unie, for your whole life, is and should be a big thumb on the scale. Would help if the unie had been Baltimore's or Boston's, rather than Seattle's.1 week 2 days ago
Gordon GrossThere were three incredible RH hitters in Gar's prime: Him, Big Hurt, and Bagwell. They did things right-handed bats almost never do - incredibly rare and amazing hitters. There's no good reason all three shouldn't be HOFers, except for some selective biases on the part of writers. With the reduced waiting time, Gar won't get that lucky, late sympathy that for some reason put a hitter like Jim Rice in the HOF (53rd in wOBA since 1950, 74th in wRC+, but oh yeah, "most feared hitter of his era." Gar SMOKES him in everything but field time and East Coast presence). With Randy this year and Griffey next year, some true legends can stump for the most under-rated Mariner on those teams. Let's hope it starts to make a dent. Gar deserves better.1 week 2 days ago
Gordon GrossLove the Big Unit stumping for Gar, but he shouldn't have to. Gar's career OBP is 4th ALL-TIME for a RHP. Since I think WAR adjustments for DHs are stupid, let's look at wOBA and wRC+: Bagwell and Gar are 56th and 57th all-time in wOBA+ at .405. In wRC+ they're 31st and 34th respectively. Since 1950? Gar is top-15 in both (7000 PAs - he's top 20 with a minimum qualifier. I ain't cutting people out to make him look better, he just IS better). Everybody ahead of him is either in the HOF (mostly inner circle), should (or will) be, or was a 'roider (and still probably should be in as well). Tons of people behind him are also in the Hall. If you have to be an immense offensive talent to get in as a DH, then Gar qualifies easily. Guess I have to wait on Ortiz to East Coast his way in first. Bagwell is rotting for no good reason too.1 week 2 days ago
Bat571The other possibility (pace Moe) is to try to get Craig and Butler from Boston for somebodies like Guerrero, Marte, and Leutge (need to clear some 40-man slots) and then see what interest there might be for Ackley in getting other prospects from, say, the Braves, who are still very RH, Then use Craig in RF and as LoMo insurance similar to the idea of using Zobrist. The OF defense wouldn't be quite as good, but Craig can play a decent RF if he's running OK. But it looks to me like it's still worth trying to get a RF, even at the cost of Ackley, to solidify things. And I agree that Zobrist fits to a "tee".1 week 3 days ago
Bat571It'd be a cleaner move for the Ms if the Rays would do Ackley + a low-level C/C+ arm for Zobrist, but I doubt they'd do that with Ackley entering arb with Boras as agent - he's not going to save them much. But putting the Smith/Ruggiano platoon in LF and Zobrist in RF, with Cruz playing enough to let Zobrist give breaks to Cano and Seager would be a much better defensive OF in my view.1 week 3 days ago
Bat571The Red Sox have DFA'd Dan Butler, a 28 yo AAAA catcher with a tiny bit of remaining upside, but not in the class of Christian Vasquez, their catcher-of-the-future, or Blake Swihart, so he's now excess. Might be a nice get in trade for someone like Leutge or Bawcom, since Bawston is looking for BP arms still, and put him in Tacoma for insurance. His rep is solid defense and some bat, but not any kind of star. Might be a nice interim backup, though, until Hicks is ready.1 week 3 days ago
SABR MattSickels is notorious for being stingy...but I still don't think a one year rental is such a bad thing in this case1 week 3 days ago
csiemsSickels is about to come out with his M's rankings with Peterson a B+ and Diaz a B. That's not gospel, but if he is at all indicative of how other teams view those players, two B prospects would be about right for Zobrist. Especially in this year when the M's are going for it.1 week 3 days ago
SABR MattI don't really care about giving up Edwin Diaz...the question to me I do Peterson + for Zobrist. I think I would, but it would be close...and I think I'd want to extend him. BTW, for those of you who claimed that Zobrist wuold accept a are just not correct and the proof is Michael Cuddyer. No one has ever accepted the Qo. Ever. No reason to believe Zobrist would.1 week 3 days ago
moethedogNope. Not doing that.1 week 3 days ago
Gordon GrossI would probably have been willing to make that deal for the 20-something Upton, knowing I'm gonna get to extend or QO him. I definitely would have done it for 2 years of Upton. But for one year of 34-year-old Zobrist, who would likely take you up on the QO if you were to give it to him for his age 35 season now that his power seems to be waning? Not sure I'd do that. Not necessarily because I believe in DJ (I like him quite a bit, but he doesn't make me swoon like a 9 year old girl at a Bieber concert) but more because DJ and Diaz should get me more. Maybe they won't... but then maybe I don't trade em. ;-)1 week 3 days ago
Bat571Question: If getting Zobrist for the one year and a chance to extend him or QO him requires, say, D.J. Peterson and Edwin Diaz, is that a trade the Ms should make? I'm inclined to yes, because of what's coming along with those guys, but it's a high price, nonetheless.1 week 4 days ago
mojicianRe: Johnson non-unanimous vote: Yeah, its that kind of stuff that tarnishes the hall of fame. The voters have become a bigger story than whoever actually gets in.1 week 4 days ago
John PierceEven though the Big Unit amassed on of the highest % totals for induction, what morons decided not to vote for him? The old adage that, since Babe Ruth didn't get 100% of the vote nobody else should, needs to be put to rest. It'll be interesting to see what % Griffey will receive next year.1 week 4 days ago
SpectatorUnit 97.3% HOF no surprise. Edgar had slight uptick from 25.5% to 27.0% after dropping prior two years. Probably doesn't mean much. Fun at the bottom: Aaron Boone two votes! Huh? That's one more than Darin Erstad. Everyday Eddie Guardado gets zero votes. Thought he might get a vote for teaching JJPutz the splitter. Not really.1 week 4 days ago
SABR MattWant Zobrist...must have1 week 4 days ago
moethedogInteresting: The Rays and free agent outfielder Colby Rasmus have had discussions, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter links). A Rasmus signing could become more likely in the event of a Ben Zobrist trade, Morosi adds. In that case, the outfield/DH rotation would consist of Rasmus, Kevin Kiermaier, Desmond Jennings, David DeJesus and Steven Souza.1 week 5 days ago
Bat571The response commentary by MLBPP himself and that by Matt Garrioch is well worth the effort.1 week 5 days ago
Bat571All the activity is at John Sickels' site as he prepares to release his Mariners' prospect analysis. There's also an interesting FanPost there by MLBProspectPulse on prospect analysis. The post itself is fairly straightforward, but the commentary is alternately insightful and ridiculous - the better comments would be an interesting discussion here, but ~1/2 is garbage. But interesting to pick through, nonetheless.1 week 5 days ago
zumbroIs time standing still or has absolutely nothing occurred since DaddyO shout from two days ago?1 week 5 days ago
diderotAdded coverage and analysis are always appreciated. And something the MSM doesn't seem willing to deliver. But I'd add an entirely different wish. I have a feeling if the community here were gathered together for a few beers (or whatever beverages are considered appropriate) there would be some world class baseball stories exchanged. Is it possible to set up some sidebar where such things could be posted? Some days I don't want more analysis...but I can always use more baseball stories. Just a thought...2 weeks 1 hour ago
DaddyONeed to add some diversionary material as well. Like Conspiracy Corner. You know, "Did the US simulate the moon landing?" "How FDR secretly knew about Pearl Harbor in advance." "Who REALLY shot JR?" Stuff like that. jk, of course.2 weeks 10 hours ago
SABR MattPress credentials can certainly be had...but SSI would need to be labeled a press organization...something to work on?2 weeks 12 hours ago
jemanjiKnowing Benihana, you'll have about half that stuff Mojo. … I don't see why G-Money can't apply for press credentials? Not unusual for bloggers to get them -2 weeks 17 hours ago
mojicianWe need to get G an SSI badge or something.2 weeks 17 hours ago
mojicianAwesome! This is shaping up to be a fun year.2 weeks 18 hours ago
Gordon GrossHere's a slo-mo video of Montero in action this past season. It would indeed be interesting to see how much different he could be in 2015. weeks 20 hours ago
Bat571Better yet, one of those Casio slo-mo cameras so that we call all understand Doc's analysis of balance and motion. I'd be especially interested in Montero's running and batting! If he's spent all winter working on his athleticism and has lost 35#, I'm curious if the result is promising.2 weeks 20 hours ago
Gordon GrossIf you wanna pitch in for said high Def camea, moj, I'll see what I can do. ;) trying to get down to Arizona for Spring Training this year. Of course it's the year Lonnie ISN'T going...2 weeks 21 hours ago
mojicianAlso, the Spring training scout should have a continuous streaming web cam going, and a tripod and hi def camera for the end of day video clips.2 weeks 1 day ago
mojicianThings I want at DOV 2: 1. Power points with embedded audio. Is it a podcast? Is it a post? Is it a presentation? Who knows? It'll be something; 2. A Youtube channel; 3. Comet tailed parabolas tracking the baseball in all analysis videos (Can you put that in the audio powerpoint?); Pictures, MP4 video or audio and hyperlinks in the shoutbox; 4. An SSI Spring training scout with daily assignments we vote on; 5. A field FX subscription included with membership; 6. Some wind tunnel experiments involving baseballs; 7. Other cool stuff.2 weeks 1 day ago
jemanjiQuick update: D-O-V 2 is still percolatin' … Ben and I (and y'all) have been busy thru the holiday … we want to be up and full steam by the time Spring Training hits, is all. Try and do the audio shtick, Matt's and Spec's and Gordon's stuff, etc, orbiting SSI. Should be fun this year. Cheers, Jeff2 weeks 1 day ago
rick82I wanna see Montero minus the 35 pounds, according to Z.2 weeks 2 days ago
SABR MattIndeed...i wanna see some baseball now.2 weeks 2 days ago
mojicianYeah, the 2015 Mariners look good on paper but they'll look much better on T.V.2 weeks 2 days ago
SABR MattGetting tired of the rumor season...can baseball just start?2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattYep...I love the idea of Ackley being a 300 AB super's unlikely that the mariners would do that, unfortunately2 weeks 3 days ago
mojicianAckley can play multiple positions, including left, 2b and 1b. He is very fast, and some months he is a very good hitter. Plus he has breakout potential. All of that makes him a fairly valuable bench guy. I like him as the new Bloomquist.2 weeks 3 days ago
rick82Drago, That may be the smart thing to do, but if Ackley can't be counted on to hit left handers, he's gone in my book. The M's, and particularly Lloyd, seem pretty committed to playing Ackley regularly. Well, unless they are trying to ease him into soft landings to build his confidence or something, but it seems pretty late for that. Ackley will probably be handed Smoak's leash this spring.2 weeks 3 days ago
John PierceI would like Zobrist, too, Matt. Unless, either, Miller or Taylor is sent down, we have one opening left, as far as position players are concerned. The Ms seem to want Cruz playing RF 25% of the time. With Smith taking up 60-65% out there, I suspect Ruggs will fill in for Ackley against LH pitching and Cruz doing the same thing with Smith in RF. Plus Ruggs can play CF in a pinch. Zobrist would be the perfect player to round out the lineup, especially if Bloomquist isn't ready to came back.2 weeks 3 days ago
jemanjiDunno if it's greedy Matt -- Zduriencik is still talking as though he's got irons in the fire, both minor and major, though is not too optimistic about either -2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattI'm greedy...i still want Zobrist2 weeks 3 days ago
DragoMethinks Ackley may be the one platooning with Ruggiano, rather than Smith... Ackley in 2014 vs LHP: .212/.255/.298 Ackley in 2014 vs RHP: .259/.310/.442 Smith in 2014 vs LHP: .240/.424/.320 Smith in 2014 vs RHP: .270/ .359/.455 Obviously Ackely has more long-term upside but Smith has been a better hitter. Period.2 weeks 3 days ago
rick82The MLB GMs know Ackley can play second base. I don't think his trade value would be any higher than it is now, unless you think maybe playing second would have perked up his bat. But there's no reason to think that.2 weeks 3 days ago
misterjonezSure, Maurer still had upside as a BOR arm, so losing him isn't exactly nothing. But on this team, he's as fungible as a player can get. I'm not thrilled about Seth Smith, by any stretch of the imagination, but he's a solid contributor who will help the team in the OF. There just aren't any internal options for which the same can be said. Brad Miller isn't exactly a lock to outproduce Smith in '15, and I'd much rather have him manning SS than sloughing him into the OF like they did with Ackley. If they had kept Ackley as a 2B, he would have tremendous trade value - potentially enough to be the centerpiece of a blockbuster trade, like for Tulowitzki. I don't want to see the same happen to Miller if it can be avoided.2 weeks 3 days ago
GLSI would have preferred giving up a different bullpen arm. Medina comes to mind.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattWould love to swap Ackley for Zobrist. Don't think the rays would so that though without a pitcher in the deal as well2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR gotta be kidding me. Why do we need eleven right handed relievers? And you would really be happy having SS manned full time by Chris Taylor?2 weeks 3 days ago
GrumpyWould the Rays do Zobrist for Ackley?2 weeks 4 days ago
rick82What we have now is a platoon that has proven in ML at bats it can produce a .800 OPS. That's not easy to find: last season we had one. This season, we add Cruz to Cano and the platoon makes 3. With a lineup that will now offer .800 OPSes in 3 of the nine positions, and Seager besides, breakouts by Miller or Ackley would be gravy instead of essential, but even if not, we're looking at 2+ WAR each. Yeah, I'll trade two bullpen arms sitting rather deep in the depth charts for an .800 hitter.2 weeks 4 days ago
TaroLineup looks good now, although OF D a bit shaky. If the Ms added Zobrist they'd be scary.2 weeks 4 days ago
GLSDon't like it. Would have much rather gone with the Miller-to-the-outfield plan than give up Maurer.2 weeks 4 days ago
rick82In fact, after Petco, he'll think he's in Yankee Stadium.2 weeks 4 days ago
IcebreakerXThe M's basically saved probably 4 million on this deal against the players available on the market. If you're an optimist, you say, "yay, extra cash". If you're a Mariners fan, you say, "extra wallet lining for Howie & friends that we'll never see on the field".2 weeks 4 days ago
rick82I like that Smith hit well in Petco, and Oakland before that. He won't be intimidated by Safeco field.2 weeks 4 days ago
SpectatorSmith and Saunders actually very comparable in 2014. Biggest difference was Plate Appearances. Smith had 250 more.2 weeks 4 days ago
benihanaSmith's contract is extremely reasonable. M's still gonna have money to add a big mid-season splash for the pennant drive.2 weeks 4 days ago
rick82We don't need exciting in RF, but what we'll get is .800 OPS. For excitement, we have Cano, Seager,Cruz, Miller, some Zumball, and a splash of Ackley when he's on his 1-2 month tear. Nice thing is that Smith and Ruggiano will get on base for the mashers, and do some decent mashing themselves, especially Ruggiano. But Smith will provide some power as well.2 weeks 4 days ago
TaroEvidence to suggest lasik has been good to Smith: weeks 4 days ago
benihanaExactly Spec. Moved the dial away from potential and consolidated talent. The M's are better positioned to win next year with Happ and Smith. I personally don't love Smith, he's a corner outfielder who doesn't play good defense, but it's pretty clear that Smith / Ruggiano platoon is a major upgrade of another of 2014's black-holes.2 weeks 4 days ago
TaroSmith can really hit righties, can play a mediocre LF/RF, can probably learn to play 1B, and hes signed up for two years plus a cheap option. Maurer was my favorite young bullpen arm, but I like this deal. Fills a HUGE need.2 weeks 4 days ago
SpectatorAt the end of the day, we traded Maurer for Happ and Saunders for Smith. An upgrade in consistency and reliability I guess, but not very exciting when you look at it that way.2 weeks 4 days ago
SpectatorOn to Smith: signed for '15 at $6.0M; and '16 at $6.75M, with option for '17 at $7.0M. Career slash vs. RHP .277/.358/.481.2 weeks 4 days ago
SpectatorContinuing down that bunny trail: Even with Maurer and with Josh Fields having a semi-renaissance in Houston, the 2008 draft has -1.8 WAR (b-ref) and the 2009 draft has +21.6.2 weeks 4 days ago
IcebreakerXHave never been a fan of trading for meh OFs when other OFs can be overpaid for.2 weeks 4 days ago
SpectatorSo while I was typing now zero Bavasi draftees left.2 weeks 4 days ago
benihanaOne of our big four, who rocketed past the other big three to reach the majors only to flame-out dramatically before reestablishing himself as a bullpen maestro... sad to see him go for a platoon bat. Seth Smith it is I guess. Roster gotta be darn near finalized.2 weeks 4 days ago
rick82Seth Smith a Mariner. Did not see that coming. for Mauer. That is a great deal.2 weeks 4 days ago
SpectatorAlthough Maurer is actually part of the "last bad draft" (2008) and, I think the only Bavasi draftee left in the organization now that Saunders is gone (except maybe Nate Tenbrink).2 weeks 4 days ago
rick82jerry crasnick says Smith for Maurer is a done deal on twitter2 weeks 4 days ago
benihanaJerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick "Seth Smith for Brandon Maurer deal is done, source says."2 weeks 4 days ago
SpectatorHard-throwing righties are currency, and Jack & Mac have a printing press in the basement! Capps, Pryor, Kohlscheen and Brazis already used in trades, and hardly making a dent.2 weeks 4 days ago
GrumpyYeah... But Mauer has the starting repertoire and recent history of starting. Just sayin I'd prefer a different "power arm" in the trade. Still it would be nice to have a complete team. Not sure I wouldn't just prefer signing Aoki though.2 weeks 4 days ago
Tacoma RainAs can Rollins2 weeks 4 days ago
SABR MattAs can Furbush2 weeks 4 days ago
SABR MattAnd Wilhelmson can start2 weeks 4 days ago
SABR MattGrumpy...we're plenty deep in the rotation. Still have Huiltzen behind the front six2 weeks 4 days ago
SABR MattRollins should be behind Olmos..2 weeks 4 days ago
Tacoma RainRule 5 guy Rollins should be in there Matt2 weeks 4 days ago
GrumpyWell, also let's not forget that Mauer can be a starter in a pinch as well. We still aren't super deep at starting pitcher. Definitely a reason to try and get them to go for a different reliever. That said it certainly helps complete the offense for sure. Should make for a really exciting year!2 weeks 4 days ago
SABR MattThe bullpen pecking order now is Rodney/Farquhar/Medina/Furbush/Wilhelmson/Leone/Smith/Ilmos2 weeks 4 days ago
MtGrizzlyI hate to lose Maurer but RH power reliever is an area of ridiculous depth for this club.2 weeks 4 days ago
Gordon GrossBut yes, I'd rather part with Medina too. *laughs*2 weeks 4 days ago
Gordon GrossI'd prefer not Maurer, but I'd trade them Maurer over some other system pieces, and it's preferable to not getting Smith or any other lefty bat. Juse wrap it up. :)2 weeks 4 days ago
SABR MattActually, I was thinking this might cut into Ackley's playing time...Smith hits lefties better than Ackley has historically2 weeks 4 days ago
SABR MattLOL...yeah I'd rather dump Medina too, but Maurer is expendable...and we have two guys right behind him2 weeks 4 days ago
mojicianGuys who this move helps: Dominic Leone, Carson Smith. Guys who this move hurts: Willie Bloomquist, James Jones. As the Mariners acquire a real outfielder, look for McClendon to expand the playing time of "very streaky hitter" Dustin Ackley by plugging him into the supersub role to "ride the hot streaks" as it were.2 weeks 4 days ago
rick82Oh, C'mon Padres. You KNOW you want Medina. Proven right handed setup man. C'mon. don't let us sucker you with Maurer, failed starter.2 weeks 4 days ago
SABR MattAt the cost of Brandon Maurer...this isn't even a tough question. Smith for Maurer is a great move for this club...and the Ruggiano/Smith platoon is satisfying enough. Finish it in style, Z2 weeks 4 days ago
mojicianBruce Buffer Style: And in right field, weighing in at 210 lbs, the lefty who hits well at Petco CHAMPION OF THE WOOOOOOOOOOOOOORRRRRRRRRRRLLLD, SEEEEETH SMITH!2 weeks 4 days ago
mojicianHerald Angel style: And his name will be Seth Smith, and he will be called the final puzzle piece.2 weeks 4 days ago
rick82Or, would supersub be Frankin's job over there.2 weeks 4 days ago
rick82Funny, I was wondering just yesterday if AsCab could play right field. Maybe the Rays think he can?2 weeks 4 days ago
benihanaAsCab to Rays. Zobrist available. Get 'er done. 5 WAR plus positional flexibility on a one year deal is exactly what I want.2 weeks 4 days ago
rick82Still looking for that big trade. It may not happen until teams watch Hultzen in Spring Training.2 weeks 4 days ago
GrumpyIt seems like such an obvious move to sign Aoki. Maybe he's just refusing to taking a part-time role at this point?2 weeks 4 days ago
mojicianSorry to hear it Matt. Famity drama is bad. But not as bad as wife drama.2 weeks 4 days ago
SABR MattIt would be nice if I didn't immediately have to go to a wedding right after I move, deal with severe family strife, and finally see my family for the first time in a year. Sigh...still no time for me.2 weeks 4 days ago
mojicianAs an SSI aficionado, I highly recommend the SSI Christmas blend, vintage December 19-27, 2014. A full bodied and satisfying blog rich in nuttiness, this selection is bursting with cheer, coupled with hints of sublime absurdity and the ever present aroma of good natured bull shtick. This is a particularly fine achievement by the SSI vintners, as Mariners shtick is out of season in December, and the connoisseur ordinarily has to settle for canned fare.2 weeks 5 days ago
SABR MattPrecisely, taro.2 weeks 5 days ago
TaroGriz, mentioned that earlier this offseason. Ms actually have had a slightly below-average payroll despite having the advantages many of the high payroll teams have. Its the main reason the incomplete roster is so frustrating. There is an obvious hole on this roster and you have the money. Fill it.2 weeks 5 days ago
MtGrizzlyBaker with an interesting article about the M's payroll: weeks 5 days ago
TaroYa, if anything I think hes a bit underrated since hes being scored as a below-average defender in the OF (mostly due to horrific stint in CF). Speedy guy with poor routes and an accurate arm. Overall, above-average in RF. The lack of any kind of power, and age, is probably depressing his market.2 weeks 5 days ago
IcebreakerXAoki's a safe bet compared to Figgins. Figgins value was from empty walks and no power. Aoki's value is mostly from his contact and his strike zone control.2 weeks 5 days ago
TaroIf hes available, Reddick would be a great fit. Beane seems to be unloading guys that are getting even marginally expensive. Great glove, extreme pull hitter, some pop, low AVG, pretty massive career RH/LH splits. Glove fits great in our park, he can cover CF, and his swing is a great fit as well. Would probably be a 3 WAR player as a platoon bat in Safeco.2 weeks 5 days ago
TaroSure, but hes been a 2-3 WAR OF and his market is about as strong as Cruz's last year. Potentially great value, and fills a massive need.2 weeks 5 days ago
rick82Actually, I'd prefer we work out a deal with Boston to see if we can pry Nava away. Erasmo, maybe?2 weeks 5 days ago
rick82If Beane is dealing/reloading, I'd be tempted to package something together to pry away Josh Reddick. Hmmm....Choi, Erasmo - but he'd probably want Kivlehan. I'd think about that one. Get creative, maybe do it if we can get Jaso back in the deal.2 weeks 5 days ago
rick82Regarding Aoki, I'm a tad nervous because he looks a lot like Chone Figgins, and is right at that age.2 weeks 5 days ago
SABR MattAgreed taro2 weeks 5 days ago
TaroJust sign Aoki. We can't be playing Jones in RF and we need SOME kind of insurance for underperformance or injury.2 weeks 5 days ago
bsrNo more maybe washed up slugger dice rolls...please! Jack has shown zero ability to pick these guys out. Stick to what we're more successful at - play the kids, sign another big fish, or toss more smaller $ spaghetti at the wall.2 weeks 5 days ago
Gordon GrossAt that point we might as well go big for somebody like Cargo, who at least might have some good years left in him.2 weeks 5 days ago
Gordon GrossDepends how much faith you put in a small sample and a bad BABIP. Dude barely cleared .200 in his BABIP against lefties, but is hitting righties at only around a .670 OPS the last two years combined. His entire difference in OPS+ from 2013 (115) to 2014 (hahaha) was because he destroyed lefties in 2013 and was killed by them and the BABIP monster in 2014. If you think that bounces back, then you can add him - but again, he looks like he's getting pretty bad against righties. As a 1B/OF bat he could suffice - but at 10 mil a year (assuming Cleveland eats 5 mil each season) that's still a pretty steep bet. Especially if he's contracted Jason Bay Disease. If we're gonna pay prospects, I'd like a different kind of bet than the ones we've been losing these last several years. Betting on aging rebound years has not been our strong suit.2 weeks 5 days ago
SABR MattAll of it.2 weeks 5 days ago
Tacoma RainSportswriter Cafardo says Indians looking to trade / dump Nick Swisher. Indians would eat some of $30M owed over next two years. How much does Cleveland need to eat in salary for you to be interested?2 weeks 5 days ago
SABR MattArizona deploys maximum chokage as the Hawks clinch the division and home field advantage. Mwahahahahaaaa2 weeks 5 days ago
SABR MattI'm particularly looking forward to elo analysis...I have thought for several years that it may be the key to player by player strength of opposition analysis3 weeks 2 hours ago
TaroMatt, looking forward to those projects.. Best wishes to your Mom. :-)3 weeks 4 hours ago
SABR MattChomping...not chimping...that would be what Dr. D does. :-)3 weeks 7 hours ago
SABR MattReally chimpi.g at the bit now to do some baseball research in the new year...have three major projects to work on. Weather effects, elo ratings and a model for the off-season free agent period to better predict costs3 weeks 7 hours ago
SABR MattThanks for the kind words guys. It's not all bad...I have a wonderful wife who is now keeping us afloat financially and keeping me grounded. I'm going to see my family in a couple of days, thank God...haven't seen them in a year. And my mom starts physical therapy in January so I'm hoping she recovers in time to save her psyche. All of your prayers are welcome though and sincerely appreciated. Stressful times we live in!3 weeks 1 day ago
DaddyOThat's tough, Matt. We went through some pretty hard times with both mine and my wife's moms in their latter years, and it's very hard when you combine physical health problems to the kinds of mental/spiritual/attitude problems that can creep in when people get a little older. Pile on the other stuff you mention, each one hard in itself and it can become downright debilitating, at a time when I'm sure you can't afford to be...debilitated. Praying for you, Matt.3 weeks 1 day ago
jemanjiYa, Matt, sure hope that you're able to find some solace in the coming week. In the meantime, may I suggest thanks-journaling as a helpful antidote. Won't turn the world into Candyland but it's better than Advil :- ) … best wishes for your Mom.3 weeks 1 day ago
misterjonezI can sympathize, Matt, although obviously not on specific issues. This was probably my least favorite Christmas in the last decade and a half, but them's just the breaks. Makes me appreciate the good ones all the more when they do come around.3 weeks 1 day ago
SABR MattIt's a combination of mother took ill with a severe infection in her knee that destroyed all of the connective tissue, and she has been worryingly depressed from the lack of mobility, my wife's family is having all kinds of problems, I've been living far away from family and didn't get to see then on Christmas like I'm used to, still don't know what I'm going to do for a living now that I've moved east again, etc. I'm sure things will work themselves out, but this week was hard.3 weeks 1 day ago
DaddyOMerry Christmas to all, take care Matty. Hope whatever it is straightens out, or you are able to bend with it.3 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogGodspeed through the rough patches, Matt.3 weeks 1 day ago
SABR MattMerry Christmas ssi faithful...been a highly emotional rollercoaster for me the last few days...I hope you've fared better in your journeys.3 weeks 1 day ago
rick82Opened up my iPad on Christmas Day to two Doc posts! Merry Christmas, SSI!3 weeks 2 days ago
IcebreakerXMerry Christmas!3 weeks 2 days ago
moethedogMerry Christmas to all you guys. Everybody call Matt right now, since he is our resident weather guru, and ask him to dial up a White Christmas for us all.3 weeks 2 days ago
PlawsableMerry Christmas to you all. Santa's got a brand new bat (We hope)3 weeks 2 days ago
Bat571It doesn't appear to me that teams trading older players with a single year left on a pricey contract are getting super-premium prospect in return -- top-ten for the team, yes, but not the equvalents to D.J. and certainly not Taijuan's equal (Andrew Heaney was about the closest in ANY trade). For a rebuilding team the Ms would seem to have some pretty nice chips without having to gut the system or trade the top 1 or 2. And if they took on all Zobrist's contract, which is pretty fair, they'd certainly help out the Rays' fiscals.3 weeks 2 days ago
mojicianMerry Christmas SSI!3 weeks 2 days ago
Bat571Merry Christmas to One and All and God Bless Us Every One!3 weeks 2 days ago
Bat571If the Rays truly are taking a year to reload, perhaps Guerrero and Marte might be of enough interest to be the start of a package for Zobrist. Then maybe Sanchez or Diaz, plus Erasmo? Marlette and several others could be of interest to a team not looking at 2015, but at 2016 and beyond. And the Rays have taken quantity before - would they now? Or would they demand Taijuan or D.J. to start any discussion?3 weeks 2 days ago
TaroMerry christmas!3 weeks 2 days ago
misterjonezMerry Christmas everyone :)3 weeks 3 days ago
BilboThat said, I believe Zobrist would be the perfect player to round out this roster and make Seattle a favorite to win it all. Rumblings today from Morosi that the Rays will trade Zobrist before Spring Training but I imagine the cost will be prohibitive given his value and ability to fill so many positions. weeks 3 days ago
GrumpyI know I posted this last year, but I never tire of it. Merry Christmas, everyone!3 weeks 3 days ago
BilboAt this point, the OF is probably Ackley, Jackson, Miller against RHP and Ruggiano, Jackson, Cruz against LHP (with Montero at DH?). Ruggs would also serve as the 4th OF giving days off to Jackson as well. Short of getting a legit OFer at a reasonable cost, this could be a formidable OF/DH combo and certainly puts Seattle in a position of non-desperation while they wait for the reinforcements to arrive (Kivlehan/DJ followed by AJax/Wilson in a couple years)3 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaReally enjoyed this article at LL about the guy who I think is the M's starting RF: weeks 3 days ago
GrumpyFor me, is avoiding a potential black hole is just as important as a big add. Maybe more important. Aoki would be cheap, not block anyone, and provide insurance at many positions: LF, RF, CF (allowing Ackley or Ruggs to take reps there if needed), SS ( by allowing Miller to play SS if Taylor struggles), keeping Cruz at DH more, and keeping LoMo at 1B more. Also good OBP at the top of the order. Don't know if he'd agree to sign up for that kind of a role though... That may be the sticking point.3 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaMerry Christmas to you as well Daddy0!3 weeks 3 days ago
rick82I would say, Daddy-O, there is a time when they Mariners had the most talent in the league and indeed went all out, putting all the finishing touches on a team to win it all: 1997. We traded away a big chunk of out youth to get a #2, Jeff Fassero, and a bullpen. It cost us Jose Cruz Jr., Derrick Lowe and Jason Varitek. We signed free agents Jamie Moyer and Paul Sorrento. We were very busy, went for it all, we really did. The team was solid top to bottom that postseason. The Spoljaric/Timlin trade looked pretty smart, and Slocumb was the best we could get. A first round exit was the result, a postseason nobody around here remembers or cares much for. Two bad seasons followed. I know the "window" is short, but it's a crapshoot all the same and going for it all can have repercussions down the road that will make you wonder if it was really worth it.3 weeks 3 days ago
DaddyOOne more thing beni...Merry Christmas!3 weeks 3 days ago
DaddyOSure, and I can see why many think the M's are on the verge of exorcising the demons that have plagued their existence. If and when they do, I will congratulate them, along with anyone who is proven right by events, which is the best test of all opinion.3 weeks 3 days ago
DaddyOHey look, beni, I'm content that we just disagree. I just don't want my argument reduced to a caricature of what it really is. The long history of the M's doesn't necessarily DEMAND skepticism, but surely it ALLOWS that it is a reasonable opinion. At least, you know, until they start actually making the playoffs, winning 90 games most seasons, and, you know, actually join the list of the vast majority of teams that have made it to the World Series (only the M's and the Expos/Nationals haven't)..3 weeks 3 days ago
DaddyOAgain, the M's have taken steps to put themselves on the edge of excellence. The signings you mention point to that, as well as the need to some drastic damage control to their plummeting reputation after a decade of irrelevance. IMO, which not all will share but some do, by failing to secure a bona fide right fielder they are needlessly jeopardizing a special opportunity to actually achieve excellence.3 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaYeah DaddyO I can grok that argument. I just think the M's see this as a "4 or 5 or 8" year window. And I think challenging their commitment to winning because they aren't going all in for this year doesnt jive with the facts.3 weeks 3 days ago
DaddyOThe real argument is whether, as Taro suggests, the M's have a window of opportunity to do something special that doesn't come around all that often, and whether the current situation warrants taking the best steps to give you the best chance to take advantage of that window right now.3 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaAnd challenging the commitment of an organization that has signed huge deals to Felix, Cano, Seager, and now Cruz and has been in on every marquee free agent bat this offseason makes me think of battered fan syndrome :)3 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaIt's your opinion that they need a right fielder, one that I clearly don't share. Right Field is your personal bar. A bar that is constantly moving around these parts.3 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaI'd give Kevin Mather a listen, and a chance: weeks 3 days ago
DaddyOAnd I salute you, sir, for your opinion. You word your characterization of my opinion in a way that I would not. I say the M's are showing a lack of will IF they do not go into the season with what a bona fide (by that I mean one with some proven track record) right fielder when it is readily within their means and their grasp to do so. They may yet do so, or they may not. Your wording of my characterization is a straw man rendering of my argument, one which sets it up for you to say I am accusing them of being cheap, and also sets it up for you as if I am holding myself up as the authority on what constitutes a bona fide right fielder. Neither of these is true. It is not a simple matter of cheapness. It is a matter of will. It is not a matter of my personal bar for a bona fide RF'er. I am perfectly willing to submit that definition to general consensus.3 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaYou are saying that if the M's don't get a right fielder to your liking than they are cheap. That's a bias I don't think is deserved or accurate.3 weeks 3 days ago
PlawsableBeni +5 for all that. C-points and recs or whatever. Everything I was thinking of saying as I read all that you did and then some. I'd forgotten about Martin. The window idea doesn't really make sense when one of the 2 guys people are basing it on is 28, the other is 31 and the rest of the roster (sans Cruz, Ruggiano 34, Bloomie 36, Iwakuma 33, Rodney 37 and Wilhelmsen 30) are younger than Felix. Zunino, Morrison, Miller, Taylor, Seager, Ackley, Jackson, Paxton, Walker, Elias, Maurer, Farquhar, Leone, Smith, Luetge, Ramirez... and on into reinforcements from the minors are all younger than 28 year old Felix. So we're talking about a DH, starter (got more close) a closer (many internal options) and a couple bench guys older than Canos 31 years. What window closing? Has closing switched meanings with opening?3 weeks 3 days ago
DaddyONobody is saying that in order to win you have to spend $200 million. That's a straw man, and along with pointing to the Bavasi years it is the auto-responder to anyone who challenges the commitment of this franchise. The St. Louis Cardinals are committed to excelling, and they don't spend $200 million. No one is calling for that. I am saying that the M's are content to get to the edge excellence but not to the achievement of it. That's a completely different argument. The long history of this franchise is replete with examples of the Seattle Mariners failing to put the finishing touches on teams that have a real chance to be the best. And usually it involves an amount of money that reeks of penny wisdom and pound foolishness. The M's may yet solve the RF problem. If they don't, this will be another example.3 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaThe M's are committed to being a winner. 90 wins every year. Win forever. Pete Carroll style. $250 million didn't buy the Dodger's a championship. Nor did $200 million buy the Yankess a spot in the postseason. Boston's big salary was all for not. Same with the Phillies. The M's window will be open for much much longer if we continue to build from the draft and don't lock down roster spots with overpriced and underperforming vets who cost young talent to get. I'm all for going for it, just be really sure to get a star, not a civic.3 weeks 3 days ago
John PierceIf the Ms were high bidders on those guys, then I think they would have no problem going to $130+ million for the right player.3 weeks 4 days ago
bsrThanks Taro. I expect another ~$10M to be added before the season starts. Ala Rodney last year which happened in early Feb. No way they stand pat at $115M.3 weeks 4 days ago
TaroWe haven't had a high payroll since the Bavasi days. And yes, I agree I never want to see those days again. That said, if you aren't committed to a winner now, when will you ever be? The window is NOW. Ms will choose whether they capitalize on it or not.3 weeks 4 days ago
bsrGLS - great point about the Hawks and Russell Wilson. If they hadn't lucked* into getting Wilson, we have a pretty good idea of what they'd be...a not quite as good version of the 49ers. I'm sure with all the other talent on board, that they'd have found a Kaepernick-level QB to slot in. But until all the devastating injuries/criminal behavior this year, the Niners had more talent outside of QB than the Hawks. Wilson is absolutely the difference. (Even w/o Wilson though, the Hawks would be better than any AFC team.)3 weeks 4 days ago
TaroThe average payroll in 2014 was $121M. The Ms were at $109M. Going into 2015 we'll be paying roughly $115M if we make no other additions.3 weeks 4 days ago
bsrStill not sure how we whiffed on Upton though, he seemed like the perfect final puzzle piece to cap off a strong push in 2015. With that said, it also seems evident that the M's place a high value on giving MLB playing time to their prospects. I think it's what Mather means when he says they "won't sell their soul" for short term's not the money they're concerned about, but the lost opportunity to develop and evaluate young talent with irreplaceable MLB reps. We can certainly debate the merits of any individual decision, but it does seem like a coherent overall strategy to me.3 weeks 4 days ago
bsrbeni - good point about the M's bidding on VMart/Martin/Melky. I don't follow these things that closely, didn't realize we were top bidder on all three. It seems likely the M's will always need to overpay FA hitters to get them interested in taking the risk of playing in Safeco. Other than changing the fences/roof policies, nothing we can do about that. Another very good reason to focus on internal development.3 weeks 4 days ago
benihanaI think Bill Bavasi and Matt Millen of the Lions are dead-locked in the worst General Manager of ALL TIME battle. I don't think it's possible to over-state how poorly Bavasi left this organization. Just crippling.3 weeks 4 days ago
Gordon GrossSpeaking of the Zduriencik plan - I may have to examine the fortunes and future of the Brewers and their farm and compare it to the Mariners. Short version: they're gonna need to luck out with arms or glove dudes, while we are still stocked to the rafters even with our company of promotions. The question with Jack was always whether we were gonna be patient enough to wait the half-decade for the reinforcements, since Bavasi left us with almost nothing. But Jack made it, and every extra year he's here is another year that we get to keep adding major league talents to the farm. He just needs to be good enough on the Free Agent and Trade sides of his job to allow the Young Talent Evaluator to do his thing.3 weeks 4 days ago
rick82You make a lot of good points, Beni. If someone had told me in the early 90's that the team leaving Seattle would be the Sonics, I would not have believed them. If you are going to be a cautious team, then, I suppose, be a cautious team in the right manner. I'd have to say the Mariners are gotten pretty good at that. I suppose that sounds like damning with faint praise, but I'm pretty happy right now with where this franchise has placed itself at this point in time, and it wasn't due to luck and extreme good fortune like it was in 1995. It was planned and executed the day they brought in Zduriencik. It could have gone a lot worse. It also could have gone better. But we're in a very good place right now.3 weeks 4 days ago
benihanaI'd also point out that the M's were the reported high bidders on V-mart, Russel Martin and likely Melky Cabrerra. They chose to stay put or go elsewhere for reasons other than the M's ownership's willingness to compete.3 weeks 4 days ago
Gordon GrossThe Ms are working towards a top-10ish payroll again, now that finances are corrected. You should be able to win with a top-10 payroll. Certainly a division banner, maybe a pennant, and possibly a title. The Mets and Cubs are too inept to do it, but if you draft even a BIT and don't blow your free agent money on suckers, we should be there going forward. The Ms and their fear of cutthroat competition in favor of the bottom line annoys me, but if you have twice the resources of Beane or Yost or whoever is managing the Rays, you should be able to beat him. If you can't, maybe you shouldn't have the job. First step to winning is showing up, and at least we're finally gonna do that again. Then we'll see.3 weeks 4 days ago
GLSI'm more than willing to criticize M's management and front office, but I'm not sure how useful it is to compare them to the Seahawks. The dynamics of team building in football are very different. In particular, players on long-term deals get cut when they aren't producing at the same level anymore. And there's no true equivalent to the minor leagues. I know there is some sort of a D-league in football, but it doesn't have the same level of significance in that sport as it does in baseball. Also, where would the Seahawks be right now if they hadn't lucked out on Russell Wilson in the third round?3 weeks 4 days ago
benihanaI'm very impressed that M's ownership has stuck with GMZ and the plan. This organization was destroyed by Bill Bavasi who had more freedom and resources. Ownership was rightly hesitant. There needs to be checks and balances so we don't go making Bedard, Broussard and Perez type moves. Wanting desperately to win at all costs is what cost us the past decade. Now is NOT the time to bring it back.3 weeks 4 days ago
benihanaYou can dislike the M's ownership all you want. But they were willing to make KGjr the highest paid player ever, same with AROD, they signed Ichiro to a contract that would 'take down the sport', they made Felix the highest paid pitcher ever. They helped fund and operate a tremendous stadium that they continue to invest and make improvements on. They are willing to spend, they've carried very high payrolls, they've been very, very active in FA the past several seasons.3 weeks 4 days ago
benihanaA's went from 1931 to 1971 without a good team. They were bad from 1993-2000. They wasted their opportunity with their big three. They were thoroughly mediocre again in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, & 2011. They wasted their most recent opportunity. They play in a literally crappy stadium. Watch they will be bad again now for 4-5 years and waste their next window too. They play in the 6th largest media market in the US. Over the last 15 seasons they have the 4th lowest payroll.3 weeks 4 days ago
bsrDaddyO - great posts on the M's culture, though I think "soul-sickness" is a little strong :) I think they remain as always a somewhat rudderless organization with no real owner willing/able to take big risks, and as a result they make a lot of "safe" decisions. Even the big outlays are pretty safe bets - Felix/Cano/Seager, signing Cruz after he'd proven himself not before, etc. I am sure that Lincoln/Mather et al are self-aware enough to realize this and they probably decided that their best strategy given the situation, is to win via the draft and development (which Z is sustainably good at). And it nicely dovetails into their "proud" self-image of doing things the "Mariners way". I think that's sensible, however I do want to see them spend the "safe" money they have on hand - which I don't think they have exhausted this offseason yet but someone needs to run the numbers.3 weeks 4 days ago
bsrDoes anyone know roughly where 2015 payroll stands with the current roster? Including full 40 man, amortized signing bonuses etc etc.3 weeks 4 days ago
moethedogGreat shout, Gordon.3 weeks 4 days ago
TaroAges of core highest paid players in 2015: Felix (29), Cano (32), Seager (27), Cruz (35). We need to capitalize now while these guys are in their primes. I say we have a good 2-3 year window and then we will need to either retool or rebuild depending on how the rest of the team develops.3 weeks 4 days ago
TaroIn 2017 we have $76M tied to four players, and then $84M in 2018. All will be well into their 30s either than Seager. That pretty much only leaves money to lock up your own guys and fill in the holes. Meaning we need cheap regulars all around and we MUST have success from our farm either through direct production or by trading for cost-controlled players to maintain success. Its possible, but not likely. Our strongest contending window is RIGHT NOW. If you don't buy in now, when?3 weeks 4 days ago
TaroMs have a history of maintaining a mid-range payroll, and with 60-70% of the payroll locked up in 3 players for the next several years we've basically committed to our core team and will have money to maintain the current core plus whatever the farm produces. We're locked in. Love the Seager deal, but he would have been a lot sweeter at 30-40% of the price, which is what he would have costed two years ago. If its Tampa, they would have never sat on him this long. Got to identify the core early and lock it up.3 weeks 4 days ago
TaroDaddyO, exactly what I feared after the Cruz signing. Were they going to back it up? History tells us they weren't so I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Same feeling I had last year after the Cano deal. They failed to make the follow-up moves. The team feels incomplete.3 weeks 4 days ago
DaddyOTo me this is not an argument about a particular signing, a particular (high) payroll budget, anything like that. It is an organizational soul-sickness that has manifested itself repeatedly in the history of this franchise. It is as if they have the drive to go so far...and then no more, a compulsive hesitancy to go from the edge of greatness to greatness. This is all very subjective, I know. But one can't help but notice this behavior repeated over the life of this franchise.3 weeks 4 days ago
DaddyObeni, at least A's fans haven't gone decades between good teams. And I'm not so sure about the "so two years ago" assertion. I could be wrong, but I'm not so sure that the current push to restore competitiveness doesn't in the end suffer from the same sickness that sunk the Piniella years. If so, it will eventually sink the Zduriencik years.3 weeks 4 days ago
DaddyOThe M's have their priorities bass ackwards. Think the Seahawks are making money hand over fist? You BET! Think things are tidy in Seahawks land? No way. They set a goal, the brought in the guys to get it done, then handed them the reins to get it done. Nothing, NOTHING will stand in the way of them pursuing football championships.3 weeks 4 days ago
DaddyOOne can't help but get the feeling the M's are a highly conflicted organization, with multiple unresolved aspirations fighting to express themselves in the context of a committee that subsumes and boxes in all expression. We want to win now, but we want to contend always, but we want to stay within strict financial guidelines. We want to build through the farm (mostly to keep payroll reasonable, but also because we believe in it), but sometimes we need to swallow hard and sign expensive free agents (because building through the farm doesn't always work well), but we don't wan't to get stuck with fat, unproductive contracts). Etc., etc. It strikes me that part of this is due to an ethos of avoidance rather than an ethos of pursuit, at least when it comes to the baseball side of things.3 weeks 4 days ago
benihanaHow'd y'all like to be an A's fan? The M's have re-upped their home grown talent, brought in marquee free agents like Cano and Cruz, and been in on nearly every bat available this winter. Sure, they stuck to their principals and weren't willing to dramatically overpay for Vmart, Russel Martin, Melky, Kemp and Upton - but I think the whining about ownership competing is so two years ago.3 weeks 4 days ago
Gordon GrossAnd I agree with CPB - we've got the cash to extend people or add FAs that the Rays do not have. If we're winning and the gate gets huge again, there will be even more cash. Tampa can't match that - Florida is a terrible baseball market. We can extend our own later, and don't have to sell off every guy in his final arb year in order to stay afloat. We just need a steady influx of minors talent to make the contracts palatable for the bigwigs. Jack and Mac are perfect for that. Just need to add the right FAs around the kids.3 weeks 4 days ago
Gordon GrossI would like Gattis as well. Keep in mind, though, that this is our internal hitter breakdown for handedness: RIGHT: Peterson (AAA), Kivlehan (AAA), Blash (AAA), Hicks (AAA), Guerrero (AA), Marlette (AA), Henry (AA), Wilson (A+), O'Neill (A+), Jackson (A with a bullet), Morgan (short-season), Brayan Hernandez (short-season). LEFT: Choi (roids), Morban (injuries), Marte (Switch, but close enough), Pizzano (beloved by this blog, unknown elsewhere), Cousino (Low-A center fielder with speed, not power). We're talking about trading Ackley for Gattis, and ditching Miller. There goes two lefties, and leaves basically Jones outside of the Seager/Cano lefty pairing. ALL our good minors hitters are righties save Marte. If you want to build internally, then you kinda need a lefty long-term piece externally.3 weeks 4 days ago
Cool Papa Bell"If the Ms want to emulate that they needed to extend Seager earlier and they need to extend guys like Zunino, Miller, and Paxton RIGHT now before their prices escalate." No, they don't because the M's have far more money than the Rays. The M's are pefectly capable of competing every year without mimicing the Rays.3 weeks 4 days ago
moethedogBat: Ackley for Gattis would be wonderful....but we would have to add nice prospects to get that done.3 weeks 4 days ago
TaroThe Rays are also typically geat great returns for their players prior to losing them to FAs. They're sort of the model of building a consistent contender, but it gets harder without top picks and consistently losing players like cheap Prices and Zobrists.3 weeks 4 days ago
TaroConsistently contending is difficult. You basically have to do what the Rays do and extend your core as EARLY as possible. The Rays did this with Longoria, Shields, Zobrist, Moore, etc. You lock these guys up for several years at cheap. The are also willing to sell low on high profile prospects if they think its the right move: Young and Myers. If the Ms want to emulate that they needed to extend Seager earlier and they need to extend guys like Zunino, Miller, and Paxton RIGHT now before their prices escalate.3 weeks 4 days ago
Gordon GrossDaddyO - I've always said the reason I have been reluctant to fire Jack even when he was struggling to add a single decent free agent is because the only hope the Ms have of really winning a World Series, IMO, is to do it from within. Find a couple of stars internally, and then add a solid plus piece (or two) from within annually. Use the budget to keep the 90s Indians together and hope to win that Game 7. The Ms added Junior, Omar, Gar, Buhner (trade), Randy (also trade) and Tino all within a couple years of each other. Then it took them a few more years to get it together as they added pieces like Blowers and Nelson. A couple years later they tacked on A-Rod. We're gonna have to do that again, pretty much - so all hail the farm, and overcoming the front office reluctance to set their hair on fire and charge down the hill with enough sheer talent that we overwhelm the opposition anyway.3 weeks 4 days ago
TaroThe thing is the Ms aren't even setup to be consistent contenders with the moves they've made the last two offseason. Felix, Cano, and Cruz are win-now players. We have 2-3 year window.3 weeks 4 days ago
jemanjiAgreed Daddy-O. Fans can sense the difference between what Carroll and Schneider want, and what the M's shot callers want. "As long as we're top 10" is, to me, is legitimately selling your sports soul. The only thing the a pro sports team SELLS us is an ostensible fight for primacy. … Would the Mariners EVER deliver the experience the Seahawks are currently delivering? That it's not enough even to be the best; we are trying to create a "Mariner Hangover"?3 weeks 4 days ago
Bat571Also, I wonder if the Ms could get in on a 3-way if the Padres try for Hamels from Philly - the Padres get Hamels, the Ms get Myers + a Padres prospect, and the Padres send a top prospect or 2 to the Phils and the Ms send them Ramirez, Guerrero, and Marte to complete it. The Ms get Myers for ~prospects only.3 weeks 4 days ago
Bat571Tonight Guti was 0-2 in 3 PAs - was HBP on the 3rd PA and was replaced just after. Hope it was just precautionary, He's got 6 hits so far - 4 2B and 2 HR among them. If he can play enough, I'd really like to see him on the Ms bench - it makes using Cruz in the OF more palatable, because you know Guti can go in if it gets late and close.3 weeks 4 days ago
Bat571At this point, I hope the Ms trade Ackley for Gattis (the Braves need LH hiittng and a 2B this year that can go to LF if/when Peraza is ready) and then sign Guti to a minors deal and let it all shake out in camp. Let Miller and Guti rotate in the outfield and Gattis rotate between DH and C with Cruz then rotating with Ruggiano and Guti in RF. Yes, a LH hitting OF/1B type would be nice, but flexibility among the bench guys is nicer. Then use the I-5 shuttle to give McClendon the illusion of 13-man pitching staff, even if there are 4 SP / 8 RP OR 5 SP / 7 RP on any given day - and then use 6 SPs and 10 RPs to fill it.3 weeks 4 days ago
bsrSounds to me more like they don't trust Z to pick the right "Civic" rental players to bring in. He's shown no particular aptitude for it, so it's hard to blame them. They know he's good at the draft, so they're building the strategy around his strengths. At least that's the less cynical interpretation, but I do think it's reasonable.3 weeks 4 days ago
DaddyOThat sounds a LOT like Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong. Back when we actually were contenders in the Lou Piniella era, serious Mariners fans grew extremely frustrated because management was content to contend but would never add the final pieces to actually go for it all. Ten years of utter non-contention makes us salivate just to be contenders, but it won't take too many years of routine contention before we again clamor for an "in it to win it" approach.3 weeks 5 days ago
rick82Hey bsr, it sounds like, according to Kevin Mather, we probably didn't match SD's offer for Upton. Here's a snippet from a radio interview he did for Softy on KJR (courtesy of Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times: “Give me 90 wins and I will take my chances every year. We should be going to the playoffs on a regular basis. To go on a 10-year slide where we don’t even sniff the playoffs is unacceptable. But I tried to downplay the year because it been so long. – I said lets play competitive games in September. Because I didn’t want people to overreact to 85 wins or 83 wins. That’s great progress.” “We aren’t going to sell our souls for this year. We want 95-97 wins for the next four or five years.”3 weeks 5 days ago
bsrI wasn't aware of how terrible Billy Beane has been at drafting recently. From 2009-12, where Z has drafted Seager, Ackley, Franklin, Taijuan, Paxton, Miller, Taylor, Zunino, Leone...Beane has drafted Sonny Gray, AJ Griffin, and...yeah. That's about it for MLB contributors. Plus Mike Zunino lol (in 2009 29th round). Granted some of Z's wins were high picks that Beane never gets a crack at, but still.3 weeks 5 days ago
bsrThanks Rick. Drayer uses the word "interesting" about a dozen times in that article. I would have substituted some other adjectives.3 weeks 5 days ago
rick82Want to be a Big League journalist? MLB is looking for a Mariner stringer: details here: weeks 5 days ago
rick82BSR, as of today, Shannon Drayer says we just don't know: weeks 5 days ago
rick82Typo, LoMo's wRC+ was 110 last season, not 100. I feel better about the 117 prediction, after having corrected that.3 weeks 5 days ago
bsrHas any Seattle reporter found out why we didn't get Upton? If Seattle had landed him with a package equivalent to the players SD sent out, M's fans would feel like the next 5 Christmases had come all at once. Not a single marquee or remotely MLB ready prospect in the deal. And Atl traded him to another NL team. I just don't get it at all. I would like to hear that he still refuses to come to Seattle or something, to make me feel better.3 weeks 5 days ago
rick82I don't know how Stanley Steamer calculates these things, but Ackley and LoMo are similar in that they are nearly the same age, both had excellent rookie seasons, and then spent the next three or so seasons on a slow climb back to the heights from which they fell. Ackley's wRC+ went from 117 as a rookie, to 75, 87, and 97 respectively. Steamer says it's gonna be 102 this season. Nothing overly optimistice there. LoMo went from 129 in 2010 to 116 in 2011 and then to 90, 96, and 100 last season, and Steamer predicts 117 this season. Steamer apparently sees continued gradual movement upward in both cases, although LoMo is given a higher projection, probably due to that he started his career higher. Anyway, in both situations, we aren't talking about guys who are moving in the wrong direction, or bouncing around, or both *cough billy butler cough*. We're talking gradual movement to a level they already proved they could do. Taylor....yeah, who knows.3 weeks 5 days ago
SABR MattAnything short of adding am impact bat top RF is an abject failure foot the mariners.3 weeks 5 days ago
TaroYeah, I agree with you that theres an argument for keeping your SP.. but young pitching does bust at a much higher rate than young hitting. Looking at Walker in particular, I'm concerned about his motion and injury history. I like his ability, but I wouldn't be afraid of dealing him for the right hitter. Even if we don't go that route, I think we at least need a cheap, value, plug-in vet like Aoki.3 weeks 5 days ago
TaroI think its precisely because of the fact that we've seen their downsides that we can't be banking on them as reliable assets. In 2012&2013 combined Ackley was worth less than 2 WAR combined and hit for an OPS in mid-600s. From 2011-2013 Morrison was basically RL. Taylor had a K rate over 25% and an ISO of .059 in 2014 as a small MI. These guys are projected by Steamer to be worth 5.5 WAR combined for us next year. Theres upside potential here, but also massive downside that we need to be prepared for IMO.3 weeks 5 days ago
rick82Good points, Taro. But we must remember that the Mariner mantra is "you can never have too much pitching" and not "you can never have too many exciting outfield prospects." One or two is usually more than enough of the latter. So, I don't see this trade ever happening. :-)3 weeks 5 days ago
TaroIts true Myers is relatively unproven as well, but it adds another long-term OF piece which gives you some options if one of your position players don't pan out. You then have an extra option with Miller covering at SS in case Taylor doesn't pan out, and covering OF in case any of the options there don't pan out. Myers was worth 2-3 WAR in 88 games in his ROY year in 2013. His BABIP was high and he didn't play good D, but can you imagine how we'd feel about him if he did that as a 22-year old in Mariner uni?3 weeks 5 days ago
rick82I don't get this "unproven" label on some of these guys, Taro. I don't think Miller, Ackley, or LoMo are "unproven". We know what they are able to accomplish at a minimum level. Frankly, I think you're just as likely, actually more likely, to get 2-3 WAR from Ackley or Jackson as you are from Myers. Myers hasn't done anything Ackley didn't do in his first two seasons with us. I'm not sure why you think you can bank on 2-3 WAR. How's he more bankable at this time for that than Dustin, Justin and Jesus were? If we're talking tools and scouting and minor league stats here, we have enough of that already. Man, if we couldn't count on Franklin for Jackson to work out, why on earth would we want to count on Myers? Who's more proven than Austin Jackson?3 weeks 5 days ago
TaroNothing wrong with holding onto your players, but we need to be realistic as not all of these guys are going to pan out. That's just the reality with prospects. I think being a former scouting director, Z wants to win with 'his' players. That's fine, and the core can be built off of it, but you need to be willing to deal a player if its the right move.3 weeks 5 days ago
rick82In other words, if we're playing Stars and Scrubs here, get me a Star. Got plenty of scrubs.3 weeks 5 days ago
TaroI'm not sure Myers is great bet to be a star, but I think he's a fairly good bet to average or above-average player (good power, decent walks, below average contact, below-average D in a corner). I'd deal Walker for that, considering the injury risk. Rather have a 2-3 WAR OF I can bank on (sort of) with upside beyond that, than a potential 3-4 WAR SP that could be nothing.3 weeks 5 days ago
Tacoma RainI wonder what Coco Crisp would cost? Do we trust Jack trading with Billy??3 weeks 5 days ago
Gordon GrossWhich is one reason I'm sure Jack wants to hold on to his young talent, Taro. It's nice to have free replacements if LoMo tanks or either Miller/Taylor can't cut it early. But would you rather load up on the front end or prepare for rear guard action, Jack? I'm not a fan of trench warfare or waiting out the enemy. I prefer to try to win, rather than plan how not to lose.3 weeks 5 days ago
Gordon GrossAgreed, if you're gonna go with youth feel free to do it at glove positions (if Miller plays some CF, that would be all three deployed that way). :-) And we'll see - there are still deals out there to be made. I'm just getting the feeling we're gonna hold our cards and roll our money to the next hand. Which would be okay, maybe, if the money actually got there.3 weeks 5 days ago
TaroWe basically have unproven players at every position either than 3B, 2B, DH (who will be 35), and CF (who is Austin Jackson). That's two stars, five young players, an old DH, and a CF coming off his worst year. Its a volatile roster. It could go either way.3 weeks 5 days ago
benihanaZunino and Taylor don't play bat-first positions, and their defense is solid enough to expect a minimum WAR floor, even given their relative youth. Anyway, I think we all agree, get a stud right fielder. I'd work my way into a Cole Hamels -> Will Myers -> Taijuan Walker type three way deal.3 weeks 5 days ago
rick82I'm not sure about Walker for Myers. I look at the two, and they are both studs, with limited MLB success. Walker is a lot younger, and I know that's different for a pitcher, but we're talking Felix debut young here. I'm haunted by Choo and Cabrera and Jones, but I'm kinda haunted by Pineda for Montero as well. We've already seen Jack trade Fister and Pineda for failed bats. If we trade Walker, I want it to be for a sure fire thing, an outfielder with a definite .800 OPS floor and some .900 upside. Like an Upton, or maybe a Choo. Let's remember Walker has 53 MLB innings and a 2.89 ERA with 46 Ks and 22 BB. And he's 21. He's a star in the making. So...I can certainly see the hesitancy. Like I've said before, I'm glad I'm not the one who has to pull the trigger.3 weeks 5 days ago
Gordon GrossThere haven't been a handful of teams in recent history that had more than 3 first-and-second year players in the everyday lineup and competed. Zunino and Miller are basically 2nd year players if you're looking at games played. Taylor's a "rookie." Maybe we can get by with that, if they're as good as we hope.3 weeks 5 days ago
TaroI'm actually less of a fan of Rasmus than others.. Skillset of a player that ages early (reminds me of BJ Upton), and really bad fit for the park. So I understand ben's concern there. That said, I wouldn't be too worried about Seth Smith or Aoki. They seem as low risk as you can get for typical past 30 FAs.3 weeks 5 days ago
benihanaBut that's just it G, we aren't counting on the young guns to carry the offense! That's what we have Cano, Cruz, and Seager for! They are our 4-5 WAR cornerstones. They are what allows us to play rookies in other less important positions.3 weeks 5 days ago
benihanaThe problem I have is that if Smith or Rasmus fails (like so so many veterans have done with their first exposure to Safeco) we will not be in a position to move away from them! No options. Less flexibility. If Miller or Taylor or Ackley struggle they can get time in AAA and we can give Marte, Kivlehan, DJ, etc... a chance. Give me an everyday option on more than a one-year deal. Not a fan of the platoon.3 weeks 5 days ago
Gordon GrossPlatoons aren't great, ben. But a platoon stopgap to get to DJ or Kivlehan, or multiple years on an everyday hitter? I would take Cargo - he would free us up to trade one of the kids. But there aren't a lot of other everyday guys I can see available that I think are better than a platoon (especially since the Safe destroys a lot of hitters, as you say - vets or otherwise). And Cargo would require that trade of (more than) one of the kids to accomplish. We can't get him for just money.3 weeks 5 days ago
Gordon GrossBut we can't afford for both Austin Jackson and one of our corner OF to faceplant again at the same time. I've just been burned too often by the Mariners forcing rookie and second-year players to carry the lion's share of the burden for success, I guess. Every time we've said, "okay kid, you're the star. It's all you now..." that kid has promptly face-planted. The exception? Seager. I want to believe in Brad Miller being another Seager, and there's no bigger fan of bringing on internal replacements that I am. Maybe it would be different now that the MOTO is actually filled, and Miller can be a #2 or a #6 instead of one of the Weighty Parts of the lineup. But I feel like asking Felix whether he wants an Upton in RF or if he's good with Miller would get me a huge preference for the former. Seth Smith? I dunno. But I wouldn't bet on Miller there either.3 weeks 5 days ago
Gordon GrossThe shout box cuts off after 5 or 6 lines, King. :-) Keep em shorter and they should post fine. I'm not in dire need of a mega-trade, but I am in want of a better plus bridge to the future than we had last year. The Mariners want Miller and Taylor and Zunino to step up and take the reins. They want either DJ or Kivlehan to wrest 1B from LoMo in 2016. But much as LoMo is a decent, club-controlled player who can hold down the fort until those kids are ready, I want another one in RF. We have several monster OFs-in-training in the minors, including our own version of Wil Myers who's just getting started in Low A (Alex Jackson). I dunno that Miller can outhit those guys. If he's not in the infield, I dunno that Miller is the future (unless it's in CF, which we don't have. THAT training I'm OK with).3 weeks 5 days ago
KingCorranChalk me up for Myers/mega-trade as preferred option #1, followed by Rasmus, Smith, and Aoki in that order. Anything less we have no business being on the playing field. PS - why doesn't the shout button actually work for me most of the time? Seriously, I click it and nothing. I originally wrote this comment before noon Mountain time... looks like maybe I'm shouting too much at once? =)3 weeks 5 days ago
KingCorranIf the M's sit on their laurels after signing Cruz (which they are NOT doing), we don't deserve the playoffs. And while I'm the biggest possible advocate of putting together a one-year solution while keeping the irons hot for Gordon/Upton in next year's FA market, I'd trade Walker for Myers in a heartbeat. Rasmus seems an elegant solution, allowing us to band-aid RF in 2015 while replacing Jackson in 2016 and still hitting that market... but Myers would be a whole different ballgame. Maybe by then we put Myers in LF and send Ackley out for parts, who knows?3 weeks 5 days ago
Gordon GrossBrad had just 111 PAs to notch that 122 (or about 3 and a half weeks of game time). If he'd gone 0-for-5 in his next GAME it would have dropped his 2nd half batting average by 13 points. His BABIP in Sept/Oct was .390 to get there. That's a thin thread to rest our playoff hopes on. Seth Smith has always his oppo pitching. Brad Miller has only had a sliver of success since 2013. I'm a pretty big Miller fan, but I would rather have Smith available if ONE of our important-and-unstable lefties (Miller / Ackley / LoMo) falters. Then we can have the best three playing, instead of the only three available.3 weeks 5 days ago
KingCorranI'd just like to note that we were one win away from the playoffs in a down year for much of our competition. Texas injuries, Oakland implosion, et cetera - not to mention an unrepeatable series of pitching performances... that does NOT mean we are one win away from the playoffs in 2015, simply because that's the way it shook out in 2014. We really want to bank on 88 wins being enough... especially when that translates to a one-game playoff and then a wildcard elimination?3 weeks 5 days ago
KingCorrantest3 weeks 5 days ago
benihanaAnd where my disconnect may be is that I'm arguing 25th roster spot 5/6th outfielder when y'all are thinking 3rd OF. I just think Miller has been penciled into right.3 weeks 5 days ago
benihanaI also think that a dedicated platoon costs you a bench spot. Playing 24 vs 25 an entire season is probably worth what? -2 WAR? Ruggiano can back up all three outfield positions, Bloomquist can back-up 7 spots, our last bench spot needs to be someone who can play something more than COF or at least provide value in addition to bat alone. For this team I prefer James Jones to Seth Smith - more defensive flexibility plus leveraged stolen base opportunities.3 weeks 5 days ago
benihanaThe way I see it is Brad Miller 2nd half wRC+ of 122 is your opening day starter in right field. Do I think that's a haphazard minor league platoon? Nope, I think the logo is a present and future stud. Seth Smith 2nd half wRC+ of 101 - worth two year deal plus prospects? Nope. Not enough of an upgrade for me.3 weeks 5 days ago
Gordon GrossI hear ya, ben - and I'm willing to trade for Cargo too. :-) I'm not a huge fan of strict platoons as a general rule, but if the Ms are GOING to decide that a platoon doesn't make them wet themselves as much as actually trading for another multi-WAR bat, then I'd rather go with a good platoon than a haphazard minor league one.3 weeks 5 days ago
TaroIt really depends on who that platoon vet is, Smith would be a great add if you don't give up quality specs. Aoki would be a nice add and is an everyday guy in RF. I don't think acquiring a vet necessarily means disaster. We just signed a 35 year old DH for 4 years. Every player should be evaluated individually.3 weeks 5 days ago
TaroAnd I'd prefer to cash in Walker for a long-term hitter. Would have dealt him for Souza+ honestly. Don't think he holds together and we have a long-term need in the OF.3 weeks 5 days ago
TaroWalker for Myers might actually make sense. It seems even Pads realize they nabbed one too many corner OFs.3 weeks 5 days ago
benihanaDo not do the Eduardo Perez and Ben Broussard. Don't do it. Don't. Just stop.3 weeks 5 days ago
benihanaOf course G! M's goal shouldn't be to get into the playoffs, the goal should be to WIN the World Series. To improve their chances on doing that the M's could really use an awesome outfielder. I just don't want a not-quite awesome outfielder. Me - I trade for Cargo. Or flip Walker for Myers. I want someone who can play everyday in right field. I don't think a veteran platoon lefty helps this team. I think it locks in a roster spot and unnecessarily eliminates flexibility.3 weeks 5 days ago
Gordon GrossCan we make the playoffs as currently constructed? Of course we can. We could have last year... but we didn't. We're better-constructed this year than last, but that doesn't guarantee anything. The Ms have indicated they have the money in the budget for another add, so make one that makes us better. Might be the difference between home field and road trippin... or making the playoffs and missing em. Don't play on the margin - give us some breathing room if y'dont mind. :)3 weeks 5 days ago
benihanaCouldn't disagree with you more Matt. The M's have a very clear shot at the playoffs as the roster stands. The 1-win away from a playoff game M's have gotten better. They patched their biggest hole at DH. While their main competition has gotten worse, much worse. Oakland's tossed in the towel. Kansas City? Dislike everything they've done and if they miss on Shields, fork 'em. LAA hasn't done anything that worries me. Detroit needs to ink Max or I'm all doom and gloom on them. Baltimore has lost out on all of their FA bats. Boston's the only team that has gotten better - and we're still projected to be better than them.3 weeks 5 days ago
rick82...For now, anyway. Trade for what we need later.3 weeks 5 days ago
rick82Not sure I see the problem with these Steamer K rates and overall projections among the kiddies. Steamer is pretty much splitting the difference between Miller and Zunino's rate rates over their past two seasons. Taylor is having his numbers regressed from last season, although Steaker does suggest a drop in K rate, he's not getting any real benefit from it by Steamer. Jones' K rate is being held steady. None of these kids are being projected to give tremendous breakthroughs. They look to me like Steamer kinda expects more of the same. That seems logical if you are looking for stop loss. Go with what you've come to expect. Yeah we will carry another lefty outfielder. Lloyd will insist on it, and that's a good thing. He can be from our system is all I'm saying.3 weeks 5 days ago
SABR MattWe need to carry another lefty outfielder. If we do not, I think we'll miss the postseason yet again3 weeks 5 days ago
SABR MattI agree with grumpy that steamer looks fishy, especially foot Seattle.3 weeks 5 days ago
Cool Papa BellNelson Cruz is the priciest free agent signed by an AL West club. That means all the M's rivals are treading water this offseason which bodes very well for Seattle's postseason chances.3 weeks 5 days ago
MtGrizzlyPadres are said to be exploring trading Myers (plus) for Hamels.3 weeks 6 days ago
rjjuniorWould love Nava. However, other than Mookie, he could be the most expensive guy they have (prospect cost), due to his flexibility, salary, and years of control.3 weeks 6 days ago
moethedogI assume we would have discovered the hip issue in the physical, like the Padres did. I hope we would have, anyway. Renting Upton for a year was always fine if the rent was cheap enough. Nava guys, Daniel Nava: Career .293-.385-.428 vs. RHP. Cheap (minus the swap costs), plays both COF's and 1B. Boston has to trade a guy. That .385 OBP would look pretty sweet in the 1 or 2 spot vs. RHP. I think Boston is holding Craig. Bid on Nava. Doesn't hit lefties much...even as a switcher...but that's not what we need him for. We need an COF how can play 1B, he's a nice one.3 weeks 6 days ago
DaddyOAs someone who has decried Jack's inability to land a bona fide RF'er this offseason, it's very possible we will eventually be glad we passed on both Kemp and Upton, Kemp because he combines arthritic hips with 5 remaining contract years, and Upton because he would be a one-year rental.3 weeks 6 days ago
John PierceDoes anyone think Upton may have had a say about which team he would like to go to? We were one of the few teams on his no trade list until this year. If he did, maybe playing his contract year in sunny SoCal, on a team gearing up to win it all this year, trumped coming to the Great Pacific Northwest.3 weeks 6 days ago
GrumpySteamer is regressing down all of the young players' strikeout rates by 5%, and we have a lot of those players, and we are (currently) planning to rely on a bunch of those players. So I think that effect may disproportionately and artificially boost the Ms WAR projections. I mean really, who among us actually expected Steamer to rate the Ms as the number 1 team in the AL? Not me.3 weeks 6 days ago
rick82Grumpy, if Steamer is over aggressive regarding K rates, I assume it is across the board, for all teams. I doubt Steamer is favoring the Mariners.3 weeks 6 days ago
misterjonezToo bad about the Upton non-trade. We could have used that guy this year. Just for fun, can someone (Spec or Gordon - or both?!) put up what a comparable package would have been from the Ms?3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR Mattfor the record, counting Cruz as an OF is not smart for the purposes of evaluating the line-up...when he is in RF...there is a hole DHing. That isn't a plus for the OF. Also for tyhe record, Ruggiano is not a good baseball player to rely on for more than 200 ABs. Also for the record, Ackley is about as reliable as Pinocchio. And the final for the record, Bloomquist is terrible at baseball, and every at bat he takes for the Mariners is a sign that the Mariners failed.4 weeks 33 min ago
GrumpySteamer is possibly conservative, but OTOH They are also predicting an across the board 5% reduction in strikeout rate for *all* the young players (as Logan pointed out on LL last week). I find that prediction troubling. I think we need a real major leager in place (and not a bounce back candidate). If one of the kids blows up then we can trade somebody like Aoki to make room if necessary... He will have real value to some team should the need to make room arise.4 weeks 2 hours ago
TaroI don't expect each of Ackley, Jackson, Miller, and Taylor to tank, but I also don't expect all of them to succeed. Ackley was terrible in 2013, Jackson was terrible just last year. Taylor is a small guy that Ks a lot without power to compensate. He needs to BABIP himself to success. The OF is volatile. You plug Miller in RF and now SS is volatile as well. We need another player out there.4 weeks 4 hours ago
TaroThe Ms don't need marginal vets, they need a viable solution in the RF. Jones and Romero combined for negative 2 WAR last year. The names could be different in '15, but we can't let that happen again. Zs unwillingness to plug an obvious hole in OF cost us our playoff run.4 weeks 4 hours ago
benihanaSeager could regress, Cano could see his power completely evaporate, Lomo could flame out, Zunino could fail to improve.. the 2015 M's could be the 2014 Texas Rangers. But, planning for the 100 year storm is a waste of resources. I am all for reasonable preparedness - but like I argued earlier, for preparedness to be useful you must maintain FLEXIBILITY. Signing marginal veterans doesn't help.4 weeks 6 hours ago
bsrbeni - not saying it's the likely scenario, it's obviously very unlikely. But, Ackley could easily be a spotty 90 OPS guy again, AJack could continue the 54 OPS Safeco parade, Miller has not proven he can play OF or hit consistently, Ruggiano could face plant to worthlessness (see Spec analysis), Cruz needs to keep his OF reps down, Bloomie is old and got injured right away last year. I am just saying, with the M's revenues there is no need to skate on thin ice like this. Jack has consistently shown a blind spot for shoring up black holes, they have killed almost every one of his teams so far.4 weeks 6 hours ago
bsrIf you haven't read this article about Tom Brady and his incredible training and preparation regimen, it's fantastic and well worth your time: Been calling a Hawks-Pats SB since the start of the season...another all time legend for DangeRuss to stick the knife in >=)4 weeks 6 hours ago
benihanaBSR - riiiight. If Ackley, Jackson, Miller, Ruggiano, Cruz, and Bloomquist all go down in flaming wreckage the season is doomed! I don't see that as plausible at all. I see that as more battered fan syndrome.4 weeks 6 hours ago
bsrI feel pretty good that the M's have their Pete Carroll, or a good enough facsimile. Not so sure they have their John Schneider ;) Competition is great...when you have a ton of talent taking part in that competition.4 weeks 7 hours ago
bsrAgreed on competition, and I do trust Lloyd to make good decisions with the options he has. However, we are in a historical drought of hitting in MLB. I am not sure the M's have ANYone who is good enough to plate runs in our OF. I see a plausible and not excessively pessimistic downside scenario that we have zero good OF right now (not 1 or 2 and we duct tape it together, I mean zero and it goes down in burning wreckage and kills the season). Anyway just waiting to see who is the Rodney equivalent this offseason, because we definitely have money still to spend - there's no way we're done at this point.4 weeks 7 hours ago
rick82Cheaping out, not cheating out4 weeks 7 hours ago
rick82Bsr, I wanted Upton. I don't want to hire half a platoon spot. I'm fine with the M's cheating out in that regard. But we should have bid and won Upton.4 weeks 7 hours ago
rick82Now, I am not certain Lloyd knows how to hold tryouts. That could be a problem. Almonte wasn't ready while Saunders sat. But Elias properly won his spot and was a hidden gem Steamer didn't count on. He may do better with pitchers in that regard.4 weeks 7 hours ago
rick82Guess what I'm saying is I am looking forward to the competition in spring training for that left handed outfield spot. That how Pete next door finds his players - by competing daily for positions.4 weeks 7 hours ago
bsrrick, help me understand your argument - are you saying it is better to let the prospect soup get the PT in RF for development purposes / long term benefit, than to bring in an everyday RF who we can rely on for 2015 when we are trying to win it all? To me the OF right now seems like such an obvious traditional Jack Z black hole of hundreds of rally killing sub-replacement level AB's waiting to happen.4 weeks 8 hours ago
bsrCan someone explain to me why we did not trade for Upton? It doesn't seem like the Pads gave up much of anything. Heck they sent DJ Peterson's little brother, we were worried we'd need to cough up DJ. Nothing remotely as good as a Taijuan Walker. weeks 8 hours ago
bsrSpec's analysis comping Ruggiano to Casper the Friendly Faceplant Wells was scary. Saying that we had a playoff spot most of last season is misleading - we had a chance to play a game to get into the playoffs most of the year (and didn't make it). The M's have the money and/or prospects to bring in a real MLB OFer. I don't see why we need to cheap out and go for scrap heap platoon guys, for the 100th year in a row. Jack has shown zero ability to pick these type of guys better than a random dice roll.4 weeks 8 hours ago
rick82On June 2nd last season, James Jones was sitting on a .735 OPS with a .343 OBP. I'm fairly certain anybody we decide to stick there internally will serve as a stop loss until the flaws are exposed. We aren't rushing kids like we used to do. Heck, if Morban enters spring training healthy (yeah, big if, but he's one of a number, no one we have to count on) we might find a decent, exciting third of a season from him. We can have some of our cake, and eat some of it too. Our abundance of WAR at this point in time gives us that flexibility. And, I would say that Steamer, apart from maybe Taylor, is conservative. It isn't counting on an Ackley breakthrough, nor a Miller, a Taijuan, Paxton, etc. It's low balling everyone, having located the proper floor in my humble opinion. Guys are gonna emerge, and those we are skeptical about, Steamer is merely projecting what they've already proven they can do at a base level.4 weeks 8 hours ago
okdanWas lukewarm on Smith, but now that we've got Ruggs, it makes a lot of sense to me. Aoki on a 2 year deal was my original Plan D preference, as it would hold things down until some of the kids are ready.4 weeks 8 hours ago
GrumpyChoi is interesting but not yet established enough that I'd call him a stop loss candidate.4 weeks 9 hours ago
GrumpyYeah we need another guy in the OF. I'm warming to Aoki (OBP, did it in AL) as a stop loss. He should be some upgrade over Bloomquist in that role. Rasmus despite being CF capable just seems too risky, but who knows. Smith might be a Javier level add. I guess the other option is to see how pitching situation shakes out in ST, and deal from strength at that point.4 weeks 9 hours ago
rick82Even if we plug Choi into the RF left handed platoon slot, it won't hurt much should he tank, and we'd learn something about Choi. We played a black hole in CF all season long, at DH all season long, and at first base much of the season, and we still occupied a playoff slot most of the season. Romero, Almonte and Jones got extended looks last season, with mixed results. The main problem as I saw it was the mid season acquisitions failed, as well as Hart. Let's do a better job of that this time.4 weeks 9 hours ago
okdanYup, still need a solid platoon or everyday RF in my opinion. It would be great to watch a team with some depth, where you don't spend half the summer watching a guy who should really be in AA or AAA (Almonte, Jones, Romero). If we can raise the floor, we should.4 weeks 10 hours ago
SABR MattIf Taylor tanks, w have no one to play right because Miller will be needed at short, Ruggiano cannot start full time, and neither can Ackley4 weeks 12 hours ago
jemanjiYep - if you're on the site already, and hit refresh, normally it gives you the up-to-date version.4 weeks 19 hours ago
rjjuniorbsr: try clearing your cache.4 weeks 20 hours ago
rick82With Steamer saying we are at the top of the heap, we can afford to hold our fire until mid season. Even if Taylor tanks, Miller has produced at a 1.5 clip per for two years running. The team is ready to contend as is, and we can use another half season to determine what to throw away and what to keep. We won't fall to pieces for lack for half a platoon bat.4 weeks 22 hours ago
GLSI think the KLAT guys are still resource constrained and that's why we're having these problems. That, or they're running on Azure. :) (I'm snarky on Azure this week because of problems in my day job).4 weeks 22 hours ago
bsrIt also seems to show old versions of the article pages - sometimes the number of comments on the tiles on the front page says X, but there are fewer comments showing on the article when I go there. I assume you and the admins are aware of all this...I'd happily pay a few shekels on DOV if that is what it costs to maintain a functioning website...the SSI issues are getting to be a bit of a hindrance to engaging with a community on here.4 weeks 1 day ago
bsrIs the website/shoutbox going to start functioning properly any time soon? It still randomly cuts off large swathes of the most recent shouts seemingly at random depending on what page I'm on. And I still have to hit reload on the home page every time I visit to see the latest articles. If I just point to SSI website, it will show an old version of the site every time, on desktop and mobile.4 weeks 1 day ago
bsrWhy did we ever give JZ the nickname Trader Jack? I think we can safely revoke that title since he hasn't made a big trade in years. I favor the alternative "Hoarder Jack". I was curious so I looked it up - from 2009-2013, Jack drafted 234 players. Of those, he has traded 5 - Franklin (1st rounder), Capps (3rd), Catricala (10th), Brazis (28th), Kohlscheen (45th). Really only one trade of any significance. Not sure if that's a good or a bad thing, or typical or unusual, but it seemed interesting to me.4 weeks 1 day ago
mojicianHere's the vision: The outfield on Felix/Paxton/Walker day is Ackley/Ruggiano in left, Jackson in Center, and Boomstick in right. They just take naps out there when those guys are pitching anyhow. On Happ/Kuma flyball day, Ruggiano plays right and Ackley plays left. Miller and Ackley take spot starts all over the diamond, but Miller gets at least 2 days per week at shortstop.4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroSo from the perspective of the seller it makes sense to deal at the moment that they think they can maximize the return. But from the perspective of the buyer, you've lost a lot of value by waiting. If you deal for Upton on July 30th instead of December, you lose 2/3rds of his season. You could have benefitted from a 4 WAR season, but you only get a 1.5 WAR season.4 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogI'm mostly with Matt. I think it's a pretty good bet, well real good, that either Taylor or Miller is a full-time real deal this year....but I'm not quite ready to bet on both of them as such, right out of the gate. I want to worry about Jackson, but he had been so remarkably consistent, looking at 1/2 seasons, before his 54 mariner games that I can't help feeling he'll be a 100+ OPS+ guy, somewhere in the .740 OPS range. I worry most about Ackley among our OF's, to tell you the truth. Since Jackson may leave after '15, I think I would approach Rasmus and say, here's 2 years at $8M, today only. In or out? It doesn't seem that he's getting big offers....he might take that. But a year of Aoki and a .350 OBP leading off vR would be quite palatable.4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroAs in regards to Upton, I think its an interesting debate. I think the Braves probably could have landed similar value at the deadline, but whatever team acquires him would have 'lost' the half season of production from Upton. Therefore, he would be significantly more expensive to acquire for the buyer even if he commanded the same or similar return.4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroRick, meant more in the context of improving our own roster. Acquiring any similarly valuable OF for a hole in RF in July will be much more expensive for us than it would be now due to the limited number of options and competition for those resources. This was what happened last July and will likely not get better. Beane's method of evaluating your team and then fishing at the deadline is no longer viable in the new market.4 weeks 1 day ago
SABR MattThe idea of rotating Cruz into the outfield only works when you have a left handed right fielder4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroTrue, but I'd assume that we would target guys who aren't doing terrible like Morales/Denorfia were at the time. Even Hart was a bargain bin guy coming off a huge layoff. Smith is coming off a 132 wRC+. Anybody can underperform in a given year, but you want to improve your team and some insurance when you can.4 weeks 1 day ago
SABR MattMojician...Who plays right when Cruz doesn't? Certainly not Ruggiano, who is also right handed?4 weeks 1 day ago
rick82But you don't get half a season of anyone in the offseason, Taro, so I remain perplexed by this idea that if we wait, we pay more. Atlanta dealt Upton in the off season to maximize his value, right? Had they waited til mid season, they would either have gotten more, or less in return. They dealt him now, so I'm saying they must agree that a seller gets more overall value in the off season than in the middle of a pennant race. Either that, or they are anxious to play with new toys. This is the team that gave up a ton of talent to get half a season of Teixeira, so they have experience in mid season blockbusters. Yet they moved him in December. I think that regardless of the added wild card, the market has changed since then and teams don't want to give up a lot of prime talent in mid season.4 weeks 1 day ago
mojicianMatt, it was your point that the Boomstick likes to play outfield a lot too. Jogging to and from right field helps him knock the rust loose for his home run trot. That's already four outfielders, before you talk about James Jones.4 weeks 1 day ago
jemanjiScintillating discussion amigos - an "editor's choice" post would simply paste in the last 70 shouts ...4 weeks 1 day ago
SABR MattI think if you can get Aoki for one year, and not two, he is a good hedge you aren't married to...I don't want Taylor to be the full time starting shortstop, which means I don't want Miller in the outfield...which means we need a lefty outfielder4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossGood call beni - gotta be able to be flexible in a pennant year. If Cano or Seager has a bad year, you can ride it out. if Ruggie or LoMo (or a new platoon lefty OF) collapses in the early going, you'd better find some production. And with the raft of relievers we carry to build one of the best pens in the biz, it makes it tough to mix and match.4 weeks 1 day ago
mojicianPreach it out Ben! No more Hart/Morales/Denorfia loooooooooooooooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnngggg leash for entitled veterans.4 weeks 1 day ago
benihanaMy worry is that your hedge, if it looks anything like the Corey Hart's of years past, is also going to have a long leash. Young guys provide more flexibility because we can option them down. This team is too deep, with to few bench spots, to carry someone who you can't easily part with. If Miller has a bad April he goes to AAA, if Seth Smith has a bad April he gets a bad May, and maybe beyond. To really hedge against the negative WAR you need someone you are willing to move off of, and nobody out there fits that profile for me at a reasonable price.4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroI'm not saying half a season of Upton is more valuable than a full season, but half a season of Upton at the deadline will cost significantly more than something of similar value to half-a-season of Upton in the offseason.4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroYeah, in general mid-season deals are significantly more expensive since the addition of the 2nd wild-card. That's why we shouldn't be afraid of excess MLBers. You can always deal them at mid-season if one of your young players surprise.4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroAh, true. I didn't realize we were #1. 5 teams with 3-4 WAR though. 9 within 6-7 WAR. Don't want a unnecessary hole on our roster to cost us at the end of the year.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon Grossbeni, I consider that the same thing. If Ackley wasn't cutting it but Kivlehan could be considered ready in May, then you just bench Ackley, promote Kivlehan the wonderstud, and let him tear the league limb from limb. Because that's not a bet I'm willing to make, we need the bridge. :-) We need enough ABs to go around between guys who can be at least league-average hitters to keep the black holes away. No more Romero / Montero / Morales / Brendan Ryan performances at the plate, y'know?4 weeks 1 day ago
rick82For example, had Baltimore dealt Eric Bedard at mid-season instead of when they did, do you think they had gotten more than what they got from us? Perhaps, since he had a couple more seasons, but I'm talking about rentals here, and Upton would have been a rental. Half an Upton season should cost less than a full Upton season. Do you think the Braves would have done better to wait unitl mid-season to deal him? If they thought so, they would have done so, I think.4 weeks 1 day ago
rick82Deadline deals are more expensive? It makes some sense, but I'm not sure I see it. Teams buying seem to expect a discount based on the short term basis of the rental. Yeah, the A's did a significant overpay, but they were shooting for the World Series, not to make the playoffs. Competition and scarcity should play in, but it seems to me, these days anyway, that you get less if you are selling at mid-season.4 weeks 1 day ago
benihanaThe bridge isn't hedging a bet until one of those guys are ready G - it's hedging that one of the guys we have isn't good enough to cut it. And we won't know that until midway through the season anyway.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossThe only Ms hitters I would consider would be Kivlehan, DJ, and dark-horse Choi if we need a 1B/DH if either LoMo or Cruz have something happen to them. But none of them are guys I would consider in April. Kivlehan and DJ aren't ready (and I don't like making rookies do position changes in the bigs - let em work that out in the minors where they can still hit while they can figure out their fielding). Neither Kivlehan nor DJ have played more than a handful of games at 1B in their minors careers, let alone the OF. And I don't trust Blash or Montero. I don't trust our hitters for immediate replacements either Taro. I want that bridge too.4 weeks 1 day ago
benihanaAnd Taro the projections currently have the M's #1 in the AL - behind only LAD in baseball weeks 1 day ago
benihanaEh, in theory I'm not opposed to Seth Smith. I don't see him being traded as the Padres need left-handed bats, but if he didn't cost us much, what the heck. I just don't think we need a bridge. Ackley, Jackson, Ruggiano, Miller, Cruz and Bloomquist can all play the OF acceptably. And Lomo can do it in a pinch. I'm more worried about our 1b production than the OF production.4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroA bridge like a Smith platoon or Aoki (and an Ackley platoon) would be fine, but the Ms need to do something to add an OF. Currently we are the #2 projected team in the AL behind the Red Sox, but we haven't separated ourselves from the pack and there are a lot of volatile young players in our lineup. Not a ton of depth in the high minors either.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossThe guy who gets squeezed in the event of a Kivlehan/DJ/Blash breakout would be Ruggiano, beni. Or Ackley. Smith can platoon with one of the kids getting his feet wet as well as with Ruggiano. There's no reason a kid needs 155 games his first full year (ie, 2016) so a multi-year deal on a lefty doesn't hamper our righty kids much.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossThanks Spec! Yeah, Aoki isn't my favorite add because he's not really a good platoon bat. But there are worse options.4 weeks 1 day ago
benihanaIn no way should anyone be locked into a spot on a contending team like this. As G posted over at drdetectovision the M's have Alex Jackson, Patrick Kivlehan, Austin Wilson, Tank O'neill, Gabe Guerro, Jabari's etc.. all gonna be fighting it out in the high minors. What I don't want to see is a middling multi-year guy like Seth Smith - who would eliminate the potential break out performance of all of the above.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossI still expect to bridge, Taro - a Smith/ Venable/ Murphy thing for now, and all the kids around to bring in a crusher at a (non-3B) corner later. But that requires one to be on the market. Still wish we'd been willing to front ourselves this year's money last year - how great would Jose Abreu be with this team? We'd be locked DOWN. But the Ms are ever frugal on their yearly budgets. Spend whatever income the Ms bring in during the fiscal year and no more. Someday I'm sure that'll be a benefit. Over the last decade+ it's just been irksome. ;-) I'm with you - I want more matchable hitters.4 weeks 1 day ago
SpectatorHere's a "menu" for you. Every LH-hitting OF who got at least 150 PAs vs. RH pitching sorted by OPS vs. RHP. Could've just kept No. 8 of course. Smith is No. 10. Note how Endy is No. 21 (one spot ahead of Rasmus) and ahead of "name" guys like Choo, Ellsbury and Ethier. Have to click to page 2 to find Aoki. weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossYeah beni, that's what I'm thinking we're doing. It may be a reason we go for someone like Venable if he's more available - shorter contract, easier to eat if something better comes along. That something better might be internal or external, but we have all our powder dry, basically, and know we can't fit it all onto our roster in the next year or two. We'll have to make a major trade to clear out the blockage. We just didn't want to do it for one year of Upton, from the looks of it, and certainly weren't willing to give em the cream of the crop. Let's hope that turns out to be very smart. Cano was worth the wait over Fielder or Hamilton, right?4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroOnce you lock in Ackley, Jackson, and Miller in the OF and Taylor at SS. NONE of them can fail. Its a starting OF that could potential be successful, but its not stable. You have no real backup plan, unless you have Ruggiano's 28% K rate being exploited in full-time play or playing Cruz regularly in RF (meaning someone like Montero as a full-time DH).4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroIt could work out, but it would be a gamble. Deadlines deals are significantly more expensive than during the offseason. Miller and Taylor PT won't suffer even if you bring in an OF (they give you depth and a fallback plan). There are 8 or 9 teams in the AL that are 4 Ws within us in either direction. We need to bring in that starting OF now.4 weeks 1 day ago
rick82And yeah, Gordon definitely vocalized my feelings as well - and I'm the guy who said we shouldn't trade anyone ever, ever, ever. But I want a grade A stud, if we're dumping Saunders. I don't want bailing wire.4 weeks 1 day ago
rick82The Mariners still don't know who to hold and who to keep, so they can't make decisions. There was a time when Franklin was a definite keeper, and we kept him. Until we couldn't find room for him (hey, let's give him Saunders's job in RF - uh oh, Michael's using the f word again). So, we will know better at midseason, and yeah, whoever we are casting off will have some lustre gone, because we chose others ahead of them. BUT, we are only asking for half a season of production so it's a decent tradeoff. They're getting a less shiny prospect, and we're getting a shorter term rental. It makes sense to me. I don't know who will emerge. Heck, Blash may jump past DJ and Patrick for all we know.4 weeks 1 day ago
benihanaMe, I roll with what we have. Give the first third of the season over to figuring out who's sinking and who's swimming, then be ready to make some early power moves well before any deadlines.4 weeks 1 day ago
benihanaTaro - there is no reason why the M's have to plan for every scenario right now. They kept all the bullets in their chamber. If Miller or Taylor don't work out fine. Make a move mid-season. Give Marte or DJ or Patrick a shot. Heck, already better than last season the M's are projected to be the BEST team in baseball, we are left with worrying about our back-up outfielder. I love it.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossDavid Murphy maybe? Aoki and Rasmus are still out there as FAs. but on the trade front I'm drawing a buncha blanks. Help me out here. ;-)4 weeks 1 day ago
rick82You know, if I'm Michaels Saunders, I'm pissed, and I'm pissed opening week. Lloyd started the season with a Saunders/Romero platoon. So Michael plays-sits-sits, then when a righty starter shows up for games 4 and 5, he sits-sits so that Logan Morrison can get some time, then doesn't start again until game 6. Soon, we're back to Romero. Yeah, I'm Michael Saunders, and I am the best hitting outfielder on your team. I proved it last season, and I ran into a wall doing so. Now, I look around, and this guy is playing two scrubs from Tacoma and some castoff from Miami. I mean, wtf, in Saunders-speak. Get me out of here. And while we are at it, why is Logan Morrison getting all the playing time down the stretch, when I am still your best clutch hitter - .781 close and late in 2013, and I'm following it up with 1.02 for you this season, coach. Logan has been handed first base, and I get a seat in the doghouse. Bye bye, I am outahere. Love ya, fans! - M.S.4 weeks 1 day ago
benihanaGLS - lots of casting about for sure - and G - right on the money with your post as well. Where my disconnect comes from is why is a steamer projection more valuable than the public opinions of management? To me they BOTH appear to be appeals to authority.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossSo - what are our options for a platoon situation at the moment? We're looking at something like Seth Smith or Venable from the Friars, and... who? Most of the other remaining crowded outfields seem to have excess righties, not lefties. The Braves, Nats and Dodgers seem to have solved their crowding situations (Boston too - with Cespedes gone they're probably fine now). The Reds are apparently willing to move Jay Bruce, but outside of that bandbox I would fear greatly for his production. Not sure where else we'd be looking. Ideas?4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroIn the Brad Milller platoon scenario a lot if put on the shoulder of both Miller and Taylor. Neither of them can disappoint for that scenario to work out well. Even if its just someone like Aoki, we need an OF capable of starting.4 weeks 1 day ago
DaddyOIn the Brad Miller = RF platoon scenario, an awful lot is being put on the shoulder of Miller to be what we hope he will be, as opposed to what he has demonstrated he is. We were in a strong position to do better this offeason. In midseason 2015 retrospect, perhaps it will look just find; but if not it will be another case of not buying that third bridge to avoid the scenario of A Bridge Too Far.4 weeks 1 day ago
DaddyOWhat G said. Captures my feelings perfectly.4 weeks 1 day ago
mojicianDerek Norris was the most disgusting Orc that Beane ever spawned. I'm going to enjoy not watching his beard fungus in hi def. He was a natural fan favorite in Oakland. I don't understand it. If you discount aliens, the next explanation is that Beane has been hacked by North Koreans.4 weeks 1 day ago
csiemsI can't tell if the A's are rebuilding or retooling--if it's the former, I wonder if the M's could get Coco Crisp cheaply. He'd do well at the top of the order, could platoon for Ruggiano, or take over for Ackley if/when he falters.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossI'm with you, moe - I like things to make sense to me. And I hate losing deals. As I've said before, I'm pretty positive on Happ so I don't feel like we got robbed... I just hate floundering to replace someone you already had. Jack's got time to sort it out, but if the end answer is "Oh well, I guess it's Miller and Ruggiano" then that won't satisfy me, because it's not satisfying JACK right now. Jack didn't state that Miller/Ruggiano is Plan A - he still wants another outfielder. If he settles because he couldn't get it done, that will feel like the last several offseasons where we knew we needed something instead of "hopefully a kid turns into an All-Star and bails us out."I want the 2015 Mariners motto to read: "We Decided to Stop Settling." Y'know?4 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogIndeed I am, GLS. Thinking out loud.....4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossSame thing happened with Fister, GLS - you figure the our people aren't morons, so there's SOME logical explanation. Sometimes smart people do dumb things for weird reasons, and you may never fully know what those reasons are, or be able to understand them.4 weeks 1 day ago
MtGrizzlyRe. Saunders, Divish had a comment (paraphrasing) "if you want to be an every day player, you have to respond when your name is called". We may never know what the real issues were but I suspect there is a lot more to this than any of us know.4 weeks 1 day ago
GLSRegarding Saunders, I think people are casting about in the dark looking for explanations that make sense to them.4 weeks 1 day ago
malcontentMy belief has been that Lloyd and others in the organization were a bit miffed that he went to Colorado to witness the birth of his second child during the playoff race, interrupting his rehab and pushing it back by what ended up being 2 weeks. As much as people blame McClendon for not playing Saunders when he was available, I always thought it was something of a reprimand for not being available earlier.4 weeks 1 day ago
benihanaAnd I also believe that Brad Miller beat out Saunders - he's the replacement they already had.4 weeks 1 day ago
benihanaAnd the OKG think is Coach Pete of UW / Boise St. (Yeah, I mentioned Harvin right after... but still) - In college football is basically accepted that you build a program by finding the right fits - not just assembling the best talent. In baseball that idea is taboo.4 weeks 1 day ago
benihanaSaunders went outside of the organization and didn't get better. He got hurt. Repeatedly. Which was the ENTIRE point of Dr. Elliot's training program - reducing those types of injuries. And Jack Z has built two playoff contenders in Milwaukee and Seattle and is generally regarded as one of the top talent evaporators in the game. But if y'all want to believe STEAMER ... go for it.. I get it. I just think it's a blindspot to not consider 'fit' when constructing a roster.4 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogDo you guys remember Ted "The Mad Stork" Hendricks, the Pro-Bowl linebacker for the Raiders (Colts/Packers) back in the 70's? I well remember reading an interview with him where he expressed frustration with some coaching staffs because they wanted him to put more muscular bulk on his long, lean (he was 6'7 but just 220 lbs), ectomorph physique. He felt his long muscles gave him a leverage advantage (IIRC) that he would lose by bulking up and being less agile. Bulk was demanded by NFL coaches.....long and lean wasn't. I've always thought that the Saunders' tiff was something like that. Saunders had the better sense of how his body best performed and his coaches wanted something beefier for more boom.4 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogI think the "conditioning" element was really about that. If so, you think the M's would best understand long-lean-flexible-fit after our Ichiro years. Saunders begged to differ (out loud I bet) with the M's and was, ergo, a malcontent. My read, of course. I could be way off base....4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossI think punting Saunders was very odd. I think not having a plan in place to replace him BEFORE you punt him is similarly strange. And watching the Padres trade for 3 All-Stars in the OF in the span of a day, basically, makes me happy for their fans. I just wanted one (in addition to Cruz). Glad for them, their GM is being greedy. Hopefully ours has a plan. There is a plan, right? Or is this gonna be another year where we know we need another bat, we just don't quiiiiite find the courage to add the one we need and hope something breaks right? With the money we're throwing around (or at least offering around) I thought we were done with that. One more, Jack. Just like in Oceans 11. We need one more.4 weeks 1 day ago
IcebreakerXHowever, Coach Pete and GM Schneider have a Super Bowl ring and a juggernaut for three years now. The M's rotating door of managers and GMZ have traded Doug Fister, Michael Saunders and signed Chone Figgins. Yes, I'm cherrypicking, but the M's have a habit of punting players for very strange and borderline questionable reasons.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossI'm kind of amused at some of the folks thinking Upton was gotten "for nothing." For us, that trade would have looked something like Chris Taylor, Danny Hultzen, Tank O'Neill, and somebody like Ketel Marte/Gabe Guerrero as the "throw-in." The Padres had a lot of farm to deal, and they're dealing it to turn their franchise around. Good for them. We don't need a complete turnaround, we need a piece. The question is whether we can get that piece. If we save our ammo for next year and blow this one... Ugh. Still feeling like we're saving the tinder for a super splash at the deadline and making sure we have the pieces to get there in contention now. Have we added Smith yet? Hurry up, Jack - I'm bored.4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroIf Saunders had to go out of the organization to get help and was successful with it.. what is the problem? Hes taking initiative and making himself a better player. Ms should see it as an opportunity to clear a blindspot and improve their coaching. Its embarrassing that they couldn't help him in house, but its even more embarrassing that they didn't see that as opportunity to improve.4 weeks 1 day ago
benihanaIn Coach Pete speak - he's certainly did not appear to be one of "our kind of guys" - least not where Lloyd was concerned. I think there are parallels to the Percy Harvin situation as well. But at what point do we admit that the sabermetric has an "appeal to authority" counter bias? Where-by ability to take coaching and fit with the team is "not-measurable" therefore "doesn't exist?"4 weeks 1 day ago
benihanaYou have to wonder what was it about Saunders. I remember the Dr. Elliot bit about him being very low in the lateral strength department. Him there-after going outside the organization to Brother Bard for pool-noodle training. Him being much improved when healthy. Him never being healthy. Him losing his job to Endy Chavez. Him being called out by mgmt. Too me it seems like a guy with immense confidence who wouldn't take instruction.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossIn other words, I think trading Saunders was a mistake, but because it was an either/or situation with his dealings with management, he had to go. So I'm glad we got something for him rather than nothing, but I would notch this one under the Fister File. Not as bad a disaster as Fister, but still a loss for this team. Unlike Fister, however, it was apparently inevitable, so the Ms getting ahead of it and getting the best they could for him isn't worth ridicule to me. Sometimes you take the bite and just move on. Hopefully we finish this roster in such a way that we make up the difference - that's still entirely doable.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossHaving liked Saunders for years (I got into an argument with Matt on a board a long time ago about Saunders and his potential upside - what comp did I use, Lyle Overbay who can play CF? I don't feel bad about that one...) his trade does hurt. I like him, I like his upside, and I like what he could bring to this team. But if he wasn't gonna be allowed to bring it to this team, I include him on the list with Erasmo Ramirez as guys who are mishandled in their dealing with management/Lloyd and are basically worthless to us, so I'm glad we got something for him. Lloyd is good with some players, and really bad with others - he's like Lou in that regard. Gotta take the good with the bad. I think Saunders could have been good for us, but now Happ and whoever takes Mike's place will have to be instead.4 weeks 1 day ago
MtGrizzlyNow the Padres are in on Middlebrooks, for Hanigan. Sheesh.4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroI'm just increasingly frustrated at the Saunders deal. He is exactly the piece we need right now and we could have extended him cheap. I had assumed Z had some sort of backup plan, but clearly he didn't. That deal sits on its own.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossI would be just fine with being the 90s Braves, myself. ;-) We'll see how the Ms handle the pressure of being the favorites, or at least contenders in the AL. It's different than being the scrappy underdogs. Better have your heads on straight, boys - cuz this is the year I expect Mariners baseball to really begin again.4 weeks 1 day ago
DragoOther GMs must really hate Jack Z. The Padres got Upton for almost the exact equivalent of Hultzen (LHP prospect who had arm surgery and will miss all of 2015), Taylor (light hitting MIF prospect), and a couple of throw-ins. Oh, except a package of Hultzen and Taylor plus sweeteners would have been better because Hultzen is closer to returning and Taylor succeeded in a half-season MLB audition. That or the reality of what other teams want in return for their players has been greatly exaggerated. In which case, we must not have really wanted Upton anyway...4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossHow you might feel about the Ms risk-taking... optimistic: "Hey, the Mariners are viewing this through a lens of decade-long contention not a one-year window. We have minors pieces, a pipeline, valuable young talent and highly paid, quality vets. What's not to like? So what if we didn't get one more big-league piece at the cost of the future." Pessimist: "We could have won the WS last year with 'one more piece!' ARGH! The Ms always like to come up one piece short. I don't want to contend, I want to WIN! Can we WIN please?" Hopefully we can win for a decade. it all depends on pitcher health and young contributions, really. If Walker and Paxton are Glavine and Smoltz, then we'll be thrilled we didn't trade them. Of course, the Braves only won it all once...4 weeks 1 day ago
okdanIf anything, it means the peoria sports complex should be buzzing this year!4 weeks 1 day ago
rick82Mariner system remains loaded with talent, and the MLB roster ain't Swiss cheese neither. Fangraphs has us #1 in projected wins for 2015. Go by WAR, go by scouting reports, either way, we rock. Hey, it's been tough sledding for a number of years, but the M ownership has really turned things around. I wanted Upton, and/or Saunders, but I'll take the consolation prize: our overall talent base, is just fine.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossLOL DaddyO. I have a friend who's a Padres fan. He's like a fat kid trapped in a chocolate store, drooling on himself and waiting for the season. After what he's been through since the Giants bounced them out of the playoffs with that one-game deathmatch, I don't blame him.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossYep, that should mean Seth Smith to us shortly, unless the price is weirdly astronomical. In which case I would try to get by with Rasmus like moe suggests, with the bonus that he can play CF.4 weeks 1 day ago
DaddyODateline San Diego. Padres trade for Matt Kemp and Wil Myers, sign Justin Upton for an OF trifecta. News then leaks that San Diego and Seattle have agreed to a trade that would bring Felix Hernandez and Fernando Rodney to the Pads for prospects. Rumors are also swirling that LA threw Clayton Kershaw into the Kemp deal to compensate for Kemp's arthritic hip. Terry Kennedy, now 58, benefitting from a strict diet and exercise regimen, has reportedly rejuvenated his body and will report to camp as the starting catcher. Boston and the Friars have agreed to swap first baseman, bringing Adrian Gonzalez back to his former team. Oh, also the sky darkened yesterday afternoon, an earthquake struck, and the trio of Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby and Frank "Home Run" Baker were seen at the Coronado Hotel in perfect health and in Padres' uniforms. In light of all this, Roberto Alomar is in discussions with management about unretiring and playing second base for the team that originally signed him.4 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogSMith's OPS vR for the last three years = .805-.748-.815 Rasmus = .740-.893-.752 Aoki = .828-.703-.658 (but he's an OBP machine vs lefties). Accordingly, I'm not trading anything too nice for Smith. There doesn't seem to be much demand for might get him for not much more than Smith for 2 no prospect loss.4 weeks 1 day ago
merksLooks like the Padres vs The M's will truly be a matchup worthy of a rivalry this year. Unbelievable what Preller has done in the last 10 days or so. I'm not qualified to say if its good or bad but if I were a fan in San Diego I'd be pumped.4 weeks 1 day ago
okdanDang. Padres land Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Will Myers in the span of a couple weeks. Impressive.4 weeks 1 day ago
rick82Upton to San Diego. Guess that means we'll get Seth Smith.4 weeks 1 day ago's the Padres.4 weeks 1 day ago
rick82MLB rumors reports: The Braves are finalizing a trade of Justin Upton, tweets Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. Late last night, Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel reported that Atlanta appeared to be “down the road” on a deal sending Upton to an AL West team for young pitching (Twitter link). Among AL West clubs, the Mariners have been prominently linked to Upton in trade rumors for much of the offseason, but the Rangers also have a need in the corner outfield, and the extremely active Athletics have been stocking up on young pitching in trades recently.4 weeks 1 day ago
GLSMLBTR reporting the Kemp deal is finalized.4 weeks 1 day ago
GLSI think I'd be okay with Brad Miller in RF most days with Ruggiano against lefties.4 weeks 1 day ago
TaroWow.. good thing the Kemp deal didn't go through.1 month 3 hours ago
malcontentTrue, but Venable would provide some insurance against Austin Jackson faceplanting again.1 month 3 hours ago
rick82I think we're still on Upton, in that we've made an offer, it still stands, and Atlanta is hoping to get more. I think we have the best offer on the table, and that it is a very good offer, and that there is still a chance Atlanta will take it. Somewhere between what Atlanta wants and what we've offered is middle ground that we may end up meeting them on. That's based on absolutely no sources whatsoever.1 month 4 hours ago
Gordon GrossVenable's not as much of a platoon dude, mal. If you're gonna run a platoon you'd like to see mashing against oppo pitching, not just decent performance. Agreed he's cheaper and shorter, but that alone might be two reasons for the Padres to keep him - since they aren't likely to get much on the trade market for him.1 month 4 hours ago
MtGrizzlyLowe is going to have a tough time making this roster. Bullpen be stacked.1 month 4 hours ago
MtGrizzlyArthritis in both hips? Yikes - Kemp is not going to age well.1 month 5 hours ago
Tacoma RainMark Lowe is back!!???!1 month 6 hours ago
malcontentI'm surprised there hasn't been any interest in getting Will Venable over Seth Smith. Same team, same age, similar (but lesser) offensive profile, much better defense. And with one year left on his contract, he should be cheaper to acquire coming off a down year.1 month 7 hours ago
Gordon GrossPadres probably can't trade Smith til they're sure about whether the Kemp deal even exists due to the double-arthritis. That's probably the hangup on move#2 after Ruggiano: our other dance partner fled the floor on stage two thanks to a bad medical. So we probably won't make progress til after the Kemp thing is resolved, if we wanna make a couple large assumptions.1 month 7 hours ago
GLSSeth Smith is a quality player that would work really well in a strict platoon. Not sure what the Padres would want for him, but if they start shopping him there are bound to be multiple suitors.1 month 8 hours ago
DaddyOKemp: Padres physical turned up arthritis in both hips...Padres consulting with medical experts and determining how to proceed...perhaps we "Dodged" a bullet? month 9 hours ago
moethedogOver that last 24 hourse I've come to think more and more that this is a Denorfia move made early this year. This type of move is the right one and we gave up nothing we couldn't afford and Ruggiano doesn't block our kids if we want to cut him loose....but it didn't make us a lot better by itself.1 month 11 hours ago
moethedogYou might argue that the natural progression of Romero or the emergence of Kivlehan results in a hitter of Ruggiano's quality. When looking at Ruggiano you almost have to throw out '12 as he BABIP'ed .401 that year. That was down to .260 in '13 then back up to .375 in '14! Weird, no? Anyway, I'm discounting '12 as his Figgins-outlier year and figuring we've got something between '13-'14. That might be something like .280-.333-.500 vL. He hit 11 homers in vL 213 AB's. He was ugly against RHP in '13 and competent in '14. Oh..he plays CF which Kivlehan and Romero don't. He gives us a RH homer presence vs LHP, which we sorely missed last year and the promise of not flailing vs. righties.1 month 11 hours ago
moethedogHe most likely made us some better but there is a nother shoe to fall. It is possible that it is a 1B shoe as Morrison can survive in RF. Then your platoon is Morrison and Ruggiano. Unlikely, I it is easier to find the LH hitting OF than it is to find a regular 1B, unless we want Smoaky back.1 month 11 hours ago
moethedogI could see Aoki on a one year contract...or Rasmus on a two. I'm betting that we're not yet making Miller a fulltime/platoon RF'er. BTW, a cheap LHB we could get to come here is a dude named Carp. Cheap spaghetti. I would love squeezing Nava out of Boston, btw: Switch hits to the tune of .293-.385-.428 vR for his career. A perfect bat add. Very wishful thinking.1 month 11 hours ago
SABR MattI think we're out on Upton. I think we're now looking at guys like Nori Aoki1 month 11 hours ago
John PierceGood call misterjonez. I am thinking B) and I like your analysis of Z's potential use of leverage. Man, would it not be nice if he was that sharp and devious?1 month 20 hours ago
misterjonezIt does seem like Ruggiano is a platoon fit, which suggests that either A) Jack likes Miller just fine as a COF platoon partner (a stretch, to my mind, considering this is an 'all-in' type of year for the M's), or B) There is another move coming/simmering. I would *love* it if this was, as much as acquiring a 4th OF, a leverage move by Z in his discussions with ATL. The Braves have been trying to tack a few different players onto a J. Upton trade, and they're clearly not getting any takers. Seems like a good call on Z's part, but I might be seeing something that isn't really there.1 month 23 hours ago
MtGrizzlyA good defensive LH OF with platoon issues should not be difficult to find. Be good insurance just in case Miller or Taylor stumble in ST, anyway. That's the minimum we should expect, I guess. Hoping for more.1 month 23 hours ago
moethedogMust be one more add, Matt is right.1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattSo assuming we're set with Taylor at SS and Miller platooning with Cruz and Ackley platooning with Ruggiano and Montero or Ronero filling in...with the rest of the bench being Bloomquist and Sucre...was the Saunders maneuver worth it?1 month 1 day ago
moethedogSo it turns out that basically we had to top last year's 13th pick Trea Turner to get Souza, if we were ever interested (we should have been). We could have got there.1 month 1 day ago
merksThe Diamond Genius really did startup a furor last night. It's funny I like him a lot more on the radio than I do when he's writing or tweeting. I don't think Churchill would put information out there just for web hits but he's not a journalists per se where he needs to verify what his sources feed him. New Media/new rules.1 month 1 day ago
mojicianZduriencik has grown an expectation or two for Montero: If he can't be trusted with backup DH bench duties for lefty day, then he should probably be DFA'd1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattI said dh because against lefties, if we add no one else, Cruz plays right, Ruggiano plays left, and we need adh1 month 1 day ago
mojicianA right handed backup DH? The Boomstick doesn't approve of backups. :)P I hope they give Jesus Montero, Ji Man Choi and Kivlehan a chance this year as a revolving cast of first base benchies.1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattI don't hate Riggiano, but 2014 was an outlier offensively and, when tasked with starting, Ruggiano floundered. This cannot be our last add unless Z thinks highly enough of Taylor to move Miller off of short...and even then, we need to add a rhb dh1 month 1 day ago
jemanjiHey Lonnie of MC - long time no mosh. If you get a chance can you email me? jeffclarke238 with the server being comcast net -1 month 1 day ago
rick82OTOH, I think this means we won't see a flyer on Guti, which makes me sad. Ruggiano takes Guti's role.1 month 1 day ago
rick82Ruggiano has some very nice stats. Solid move here.1 month 1 day ago
moethedogExactly Lonnie, this is a Stars and Scrubs move.....with us acquiring a "scrub" with some decent pedigree. A complementary 3-position OF'er was always in need but Ruggiano doesn't fill the hole we have for a LHB in the OF. I'm not betting that it is Miller. I think we start with Miller/Taylor sharing the SS job and Miller getting the occasional 3B/2B start....and some in LF.1 month 1 day ago
Lonnie of MCI think everyone needs to lower their sights or else they are going to be sorely disappointed. The move this morning of Matt Brazis for Justin Ruggiano of the Cubbies was a nice move that will help bolster the team from the right side. Not a sexy move by any stretch, but Ruggs definitely has value. If anyone is interested, I've got something up on Ruggiano at MC.1 month 1 day ago
TaroYes, but I think Souza profiles similar or better from here on out. Rays are doing well selling high (low?) here.1 month 1 day ago
MtGrizzlyMyers was ROY in MLB at 22. Souza was in AAA at 25.1 month 1 day ago
TaroFrom early rumblings it sounds like the Rays are about rip off the Padres. Souza is a speedier and better defensive version of Myers, and it looks like the Rays want a lot more on top of that.1 month 1 day ago
MtGrizzlySo yeah, LoMo is with mojician1 month 1 day ago
MtGrizzly@CupOfLoMo: I heard my mom and her #BreakfastSamiches are in on the Wil Myers deal.1 month 1 day ago
mojicianDivish wrote that the new hitter would be better than Viciedo. While this sort of reporting is not as exciting as better than Upton, it has the virtue of being true. Ruggiano is far better than Viciedo. He plays all outfield positions, he's kind of fast, he's fit, and he rakes lefties. Viciedo is 240 lbs on paper (equals 240+ in real life), and doesn't hit lefties or righties particularly well and he runs and fields poorly.1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattAgreed that Churchill is wrong far too often when he's working the rumors1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossMoj is talking about Churchill's hysteria this morning. He was passing along info passed to him by "sources" but if their stuff doesn't pan out are they actually sources? Since Jason has a history of passing along Big Info that turns out to be much smaller. Can't tell if he's doing it for hits and retweets or not. His sources on these things do seem to be less reliable than other media types, so I tend to stick with the beat reporters for breaking news and Jason is more for editorial content rather than reporting.1 month 1 day ago
mojicianRuggiano came from Johns and Dutton, and Ruggiano. Done deal. Those tweets regarding Wil Myers, and regarding a player between Upton and Harper on the bash-o-meter were definitely false tweets. I like that term, "false tweet" it sounds like a misdemeanor.1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattIs Riggiano a false tweet? Our did that come from a reliable account1 month 1 day ago
mojicianI'm hearing rumblings that #mariners tweets not tweeted by Drayer, Dutton, Divish or Johns need to be regarded with deepest suspicion. #falsereport, #boywhocriedwolf, #fail.1 month 1 day ago
moethedogFlexibility is huge, King. That is true in terms of roster financial flexibility (which this still allows, as would two years of Smith) and roster/positional flexibility. A LHB COF add, as the finale, really allows that type of all-around flexibility.1 month 1 day ago
John PierceAckley has been pretty durable. The last three years, he has played in 153, 113 and 143 games. Plus he had a small power surge, last year, when he hit 14 HRs. With that said, Taro, are you expecting him to decline?1 month 1 day ago
KingCorranAnd by 2014, I mean 2016. *headdesk*1 month 1 day ago
moethedogIf we get Smith (w/o giving up something young and sweet), the Smith/Ruggiano pairing is as good as bet as Melky would be at less than 1/2 the cost. And with Melky we still needed to grab the 2nd CF. This is the type of early complementary move the Giants usually make.1 month 1 day ago
KingCorranI like that this doesn't block us from the 2014 OF FA market. If this is a chess match and we're thinking 4 moves ahead, there's a lot to be said for preserving flexibility for a no-prospect-cost move next offseason.1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossYep, Ruggiano cost us a fungible asset. I would have preferred a different reliever, but really: we can find relievers. We probably just drafted 2 more while I was typing this.1 month 1 day ago
TaroAckley probably needs to be platooned so you can still acquire either handed OF. We'll see, but I'm not holding my breath on an impact add.1 month 1 day ago
moethedogThat's a good description, Gordon. I would prefer Souza...but this guy comes essentially free. Brazis is certainly a promising MiLB relief arm, but we hove those guys in spades. Ruggiano is the classic 4th OF as he can play all three positions and he's got a nice .266-.329-.508 career split vL. He does K, certainly. He is a potential nice addition. Does this mean Miller is no longer a SS? Or at least not the primary one and Taylor gets the ball? With Seth Smith then we would have a neat 25-man. Bloomie would be gone...In that situation I would give Romero the nod over Montero as BU 1B just because he's way more flexable. Right now it would be Ackley-Jackson-Ruggiano-Miller-Taylor-Seager-Cano-Morrison-Zunino-Sucre-Cruz. That's 11. We need one more guy that can play 2B/3B and a RHB 1B. One of those guys should be able to play COF, too. Then we are filled and flexable. Smith and Romero would get all that done.1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossWe'll get more relievers, Spec, no doubt there. ;-) I just wanted Brazis available if we were gonna trade a major league reliever (like Medina). In fact, I would rather have traded Medina than Brazis. Now I assume the pen will stay relatively set (once we shake out the lefty thing, and find a place for Carson Smith... so maybe Medina is still in play after all).1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossAnd really: Saunders + Brazis + 5 million bucks to throw at another move, or Ruggiano + Happ? It only makes sense if you have a legit platoon in RF (something that Saunders wouldn't have been happy with) AND one that will outhit Saunders.1 month 1 day ago
SpectatorBrazis one of the unending spring-fed tap of RH relief guys that flow out of Jack&Mac's factory. Ruggiano's ISO 103 points higher vs. LHP (138 vs. 241!). But even tho he's 32, that's based on only 443 MLB PAs. So it's not carved in stone or anything. That being said, even Ruggiano's "bad" ISO (vs. RH) is an improvement over Denorfia and Endy.1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossYeah, that's my worry Taro: that Ruggiano is losing his usefulness. He struck out 28% of the time against righties in 2014... AND against lefties. When you're K-ing 30% of the time against the arms you need to hit - that it is your ONLY useful skill to hit - I get worried that the end may be nigh. It may not be, and we're betting it isn't. But that better not be the last move. A Ruggiano/Jones platoon would sorta terrify me.1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossSeth Smith is part 2 of that move, padna. I'll be pretty surprised if we don't now make that one.1 month 1 day ago
TaroExtreme platoon player, history of mashing LHs, below-average defensive OF, showed some signs of decline in the 2nd half of the season. Will either be semi-useful in a platoon role or is finished due to decreasing contact. Still need a starting RF.1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossThat said, if we'd traded Brazis for Souza I would have thought that was okay, so Ruggiano just needs to hit like his 2012 campaign and I'll be happy. ;-)1 month 1 day ago
SilentpadnaThis looks like a Beane-style move to me. Ruggiano would be nice plug and play 4th OF. I'm okay with this. A low-risk, moderate reward. Am hoping there's still something more and the Divish is wrong. "Rays working a 3-4 team deal" makes me wonder....1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossIMO, Matt Brazis was the best reliever we had left in our minors, and I had him ranked over Yarbrough. He was the next Dominic Leone and I expected him to "surprise" and make the pen in Spring Training (or at least be the first guy up). Cubs got a good one, IMO, in the vein of stealing Lord Farquhar. Hope Ruggiano can hit better than Denorfia.1 month 1 day ago
okdanI'm just happy that it's not Viciedo.1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossMATT BRAZIS??? ARGH!! I WILL USE MORE PUNCTUATION!!1 month 1 day ago
DaddyOAh the lot of the baseball fan. Wondering all night what trade was going down, only to find out it's Justin ^&*(% Ruggiano (with a tone similar to that of Tommy Lasorda in his famous Kurt Bevacqua rant). I'm sure Ruggiano is serviceable, though I don't really know.1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossYeah, I would now expect Seth Smith. A Smith/Ruggiano RF would be a .835 vs lefties / .840 vs RHP platoon for about 10 million bucks. It leaves room for the minors guys to step into an OF role while giving us guys who are used to platooning and pretty good at it to pin down the position. As long as we add a Smith-like bat, I'll be okay with that. Unless the early age curve hits either guy, in which case I'll cry into my cornflakes - and await Kivlehan (assuming he hasn't been traded for either dude... which would be pretty bad...)1 month 1 day ago
okdanOne more correction (sorry, lots of contradictions between Drayer and Divish). Matt Brazis is going to the Cubs and Bawcom was DFA'd1 month 1 day ago
okdanCorrection: Ruggiano for Brazis AND Logan Bawcom1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossRuggiano's the older version of Souza's mid-range, I guess. Let's hope we didn't just trade for Denorfia again, but he should be fine in the role. Question is: is that it, or is there another deal in motion?1 month 1 day ago
DaddyOMorosi confirms it's Ruggiano on Twitter. The guy's a late bloomer who still hasn't really bloomed? Platoon with MIller or Seth Smith?1 month 1 day ago
okdanDone deal: Ruggiano to the M's for RHP Matt Brazis1 month 1 day ago
okdanRuggiano in a platoon role with Miller is pretty "creative" wouldn't you say?1 month 1 day ago
okdanSounds like the Rays are trying to work lots of angles involving Myers.1 month 1 day ago
SpectatorRuggiano would fit the rumor profile, I guess. Souza now reported as part of Rays-Pods-Nats three-way discussions that Divish says M's are out of.1 month 1 day ago
SpectatorRuggiano at first glance: moderate power, strikes out a ton, looks like pretty good power vs. LHP (big platoon split in ISO), swiped some bags in the minors, but gets caught a lot in majors. Upgrade over Denorfia I guess but not much more. Kind of a RH version of the bad version of Saunders maybe. Never had a season with less than 23% K-rate. Share time with Miller spotted against LHP?1 month 1 day ago
moethedogI can't see the Pirates giving up Marte. And that would be fairly "major." Souza???1 month 1 day ago
drmDidn't Byrd take the M's off his no trade list? I'm not sure you can take Bryd off the list because of that. Now, I've just seen Rugglinono from the cubs? Is he any good?1 month 1 day ago
SpectatorMarte had an OPS of .808 with 30 steals and is signed to a mid-priced deal thru 2019 with 2 option years. Maybe he's too "major" to fit into what Divish has heard, and maybe he's not gettable without Taijuan or KPax. Just poking around ...1 month 1 day ago
mojicianI liked the "better than Upton but worse than Harper" parameter better.1 month 1 day ago
SpectatorDivish says not "major" but better than Vicideo. There aren't tons of guys who actually played OF in the majors that fit that description (assuming RH also). I wondering maybe Starling Marte of Pittsburgh? M's were linked to him at the deadline.1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossAll right people, I'm busy today - keep me informed via shouts about this whole mess. ;) I can't be scouring the web and twitter for updates. INFOTAIN ME!1 month 1 day ago
SpectatorLet's see ... Divish says flat out that M's not part of the Myers deal. Also says deal is less than "major" but not Byrd or Viciedo or the same names that have been recycling. No "big" prospects leaving. Interesting ...1 month 1 day ago
moethedogBTW, hot off the MLBTR press: TODAY: If a deal is close, Crasnick says (links to Twitter), it is not for Marlon Byrd of the Phillies, who has not been approached about waiving his no-trade protection against Seattle. Likewise, while the Red Sox have discussed Allen Craig with plenty of other teams, there is “nothing brewing” on him at the moment (and no particular link to the M’s).1 month 1 day ago
moethedogMyers is interesting: Young and exciting and we would probably give up Walker to get him, if that is the thing. His MILB #'s, btw, are no better than guys we have: Myers was .279-.369-.476 in AA. Kivlehan was .300-.374-.485 last year. In AAA Myers was .295-.372-.541, K'ing 26% of the time. Romero is .300-.347-.571 with 22% K's. Just putting him in perspective, mind you. Myers' dismal '14 was largely due to a weird vL crash/burn: .192-.259-..273. That can't occur again. Not possible. He's likely worth Walker, because he's a young long-term bat. I would do that deal. Gimme young bats if I'm giving up a young arm. But to tell you the truth, it's fairly likely we could get something like Myers by just plugging Kivlehan in out there. If we're trading for Myers, I'll bet you dollars to donuts we give up a young bat, too...and they add a piece. That would create the delay.1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattGetting Myers would be a smart play...but less exciting. :) Lot of uncertainty with him, but it converts an excess asset (Walker) from our depth into an asset where we need it.1 month 1 day ago
mojicianWhat about Will Myers?1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattI would have Zduriencik's lovechild if he could actually get Bautista or McCutchen or similar huge asset.1 month 1 day ago
Tacoma RainHow about McCutchen? He can't cost that much more than Upton...1 month 1 day ago
moethedogAccording to MLBT-R: 10:38pm: A deal involving Desmond is still a possibility, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. Desmond is interesting but very Zobrist-like (with less homer power). One year of Desmond, if that is it, better be cheap. I'm not giving up Miller or Elias or Walker for that either.1 month 1 day ago
moethedogZobrist is one year. I'm not giving up Walker for one year of Zobrist OR Upton. The natural bid would be Miller for Zobrist. I'm not doing that either. I like Zobrist, but he will be 34 in May, has seen a fairly consistent decline in Slugging over the last 4 years and his one year sin't worth any of the pretty pieces we have. If he's cheap, like Matt says, he a neat get. He isn't worth one of our arms or Miller or Taylor.1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattZobrist, if he doesn't cost too much, would be cool by me1 month 1 day ago
KingCorranSounds like a false alarm on the Myers bit. But that probably means we keep Walker... and it SOUNDS like the Myers bit was separate from the 'deal imminent' bit.1 month 1 day ago
TaroIf its part of the Myers deal, it could be Zobrist.1 month 1 day ago
BilboSounds more like Myers to Seattle and Walker to SD with other prospects to TB is what is in the works. 3 team trades are complicated to say the least so this may not have legs, but I'd be happy with what is effectively Myers for Walker1 month 1 day ago
John PierceIs Myers considered better than Kemp? Because if he is not, why would Z trade walker for him, when he would not for Kemp? Myers shined the year he was called up, last year, not so much. I wouldn't mind the trade, two long term, cost controlled players, that fill the need of both teams. But then I remember Pineda for Montero, Then I'm not so sure. ;)1 month 1 day ago
rjjuniorJust yanking your chain, moethedog, on the Souza posts. No worries. Churchill track record is not great when it comes to rumors so...1 month 1 day ago
KingCorranI'm going to stop just reposting what Churchill says. I'm not a huge fan of his analysis, but he does have an ear to the ground at times. If the M's really are involved in a 3-way trade with SD and TB where Walker goes to SD and we get Myers... this is like Pineda/Montero all over again. Robinson Cano, in a different sense. Wow.1 month 2 days ago
KingCorranChurchill says MYERS for Walker a possibility???1 month 2 days ago
KingCorranYou know, Doc, you're gonna be kicking yourself for publishing this most recent article if in fact Z DOES have a big fish on the line... not to mention one no one saw coming. He seems to excel at that... yet an hour ago, no one would have argued with the post anyways!1 month 2 days ago
KingCorranIt just can't be Gomez, McCutchen, Stanton, or Trout. Ridiculous names thrown out (here) and thrown out (in the garbage). Moving on.1 month 2 days ago
KingCorranChurchill says better than Upton, worse than Harper. Bautista? zobrist? cargo? Braun? Adam Jones (by his definition, not mine)? Can't see werth or holiday...1 month 2 days ago
moethedogIf this isn't a deal that comes together easily it probably isn't a guy like Byrd, even though Crasnick is a Philly guy. Darin Ruf K's a lot but has hit 20 homers in less than 400 MLB AB's. But a guy like that shouldn't be too hard to deal to get. If it takes that long there may be several pieces to the trade. He has links to Boston. Victorino should be easy peasy. Craig? Werth in Washington is likely way too expensive. Interesting....1 month 2 days ago
malcontentI've been thinking it might be a good idea to switch Jackson and BJ Upton for that purpose (having a Justin Upton bargaining chip). With Austin Jackson looking like the latest bug to splat into Safeco, BJ might be as likely a bounceback candidate as Jackson is, so if it brings the asking price on Justin down, I'm all for it.1 month 2 days ago
Bat571Crasnick tweets it's a RH bat that hasn't had a lot of speculation about it - that doesn't sound like Upton!1 month 2 days ago
Bat571Dutton's reporting Upton's asking price may be more at the Diaz/Sanchez [Guerrero/Marte?-bat] level. Maybe Erasmo would be of interest as well? I'd certainly be in favor of a Erasmo-Diaz-Guerrero type deal even for the 1 year of Upton - we're now talking prospects, not key core pieces. I'd even do Erasmo/Guerrero/+ for both Uptons if the Braves pick up all but ~$5M/yr of B.J.'s contract - it would possibly help keep Justin past this year.1 month 2 days ago
Bat571Padres trying to get Wil Myers from Padres. MLBTR has Matt Wisler, Burch Smith, and R.J. Alvarez, all RHP, as targets, with C Austin Hedges also a possible target. Hedges is their #1 prospect by all 3 major rankings (BA, BP,, while Wisler is #2 and has Smith and Alvarez as #16 and #20. Wonder if Guerrero, Marte, Diaz, and Sanchez might be competitive if Wisler / Hedges is either/or ? Myers has been a bit of a disappointment in TB, but maybe not having to be a MAJOR piece, but just part of a young lineup might get him going?1 month 2 days ago
moethedogOf the three, certainly Matt. I'm not prepared to give up much for a single season of Upton, however. Would he extend for another year? Inquiring minds want to know.1 month 2 days ago
SABR MattUpton, Desmond, or Viciedo...that's the last of likely possibilities. Please let it be Upton1 month 2 days ago
moethedogUpton? The Padres and Rays are in discussion on a significant trade that would send Wil Myers to San Diego in exchange for some of the Padres’ better young prospects, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Rosenthal notes that it’s not certain whether a trade is particularly close at this time, but an acquisition of Myers would likely take the Padres out of the running for Atlanta’s Justin Upton.1 month 2 days ago
benihanaJerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick 10m ago - "Hearing rumblings that the #mariners are closing in on a trade for a hitter." - who's it gonna be? who's it gonna be?1 month 2 days ago
TaroLack of stop-loss is the biggest risk in not nabbing another OF. Playing players out of position makes your defense worse and increases injury risk. Once you plug Miller in RF, you don't allow for ANYone on your roster to disappoint or to get injured. The next men in line are Montero, James Jones or Romero. These guys have some potential, but could be absolute disasters as well. They combined for negative -2 WAR just last year. The downside of that scenario is immense. We just saw it last season and it cost us the playoffs. We need AT LEAST one OF, probably two. I'm tired of the excuses and boneheaded acquisitions. This is our window. We need to capitalize.1 month 2 days ago
DaddyOWe can get Sousa REALLY cheap! month 2 days ago
moethedogAnd I still would get Souza!1 month 2 days ago
moethedogDoc, I agree. I said that I would bet on all of those options, individually. I'm not sure the M's will, however. The funny thing about Aoki is that he won't really solve any of our "unknowns"......well, he would give us a lead-off hitter. But he doesn't solve the "unknowns" at CF and 1B (although Montero and Romero is a pretty good stable to be on hitting LHP). If we do that it is because it is the safe route. Insurance on our big Cruz buy. Me? Heck, I'm pretty sure that Kivlehan will produce the 100 OPS that Aoki likely will. But that is a bold route. Aoki has a reverse split, so you could still use him in a weird-unique platoon with Miller when the kid takes off. I read a couple of hours ago that some people think Aoki will get three years. Not from the M's! He might not get two from us. But Montero/Morrison and Miller/Romero/Kivlehan both work for me and are (IMHO) pretty safe bets. Will Z see it that way after his big Cruz buy?1 month 2 days ago
Gordon GrossIf Ackley or Morrison or Miller or Taylor have proven they can produce over a full season, I haven't heard of it. Jackson has had two poor years and two average ones out of his 5 as a big-leaguer. Zunino can't hit the Mendoza line. We've had a lot of REgression amongst our young hitters in their early campaigns, not PROgression. Can't have our whole season sunk if Seager takes a fastball off the wrist in May, y'know? I want to see surplus offensive production if everybody does what they should, not just "enough" production. I want a Miller breakout to make us into the 90s Indians offensively, not the 2014 KC Royals. I'm greedy. ;-) And so's Jack, since he still wants to sign someone...1 month 2 days ago
SABR MattIf we didn't demonstrate that we are willing to spend more on proven commodities...I would be fine with that job share, Doc. But we showed we were willing to pay to get something more bankable. Being reduced to hoping Montero and Miller can handle out-of-position needs is a let down.1 month 2 days ago
jemanjiMoe, nobody but Junior minds your pressing the Souza point :- ) … on the other Shout, it sez here: (1) LoGo being able to back up 20 games in CF seems like a 90% probability, (2) Montero hitting lefties is already a given, and (3) not sure why you need D.J. in the second half, given the first two points. :: shrug :: What *I* am missing is, what people dislike so much about a LoGo/Montero platoon to start the year. There will be exactly 2 positions at which the M's have unproven players.1 month 2 days ago
jemanjiYep. Will cheerfully agree that the M's overestimated their chances on landing one of their primary targets. But personally I'm not let down by the "fallback" safety net of a Logo-Montero type of platoon. If that was the "floor" scenario then I'm comfortable with the "dropoff" (sic). From where I sit, though, I don't know why they had to get so down on Saunders' work ethic. Sometimes they seem pretty old-school that way.1 month 2 days ago
DaddyOI'm with both Taro and moe here in that (a) moving Saunders looks far less attractive now that we've so far missed out on a major RF add, (b) I don't trust Jack in his "creative" endeavors, and (c) barring a big add either now or in spring training, Aoki is starting to look like a good value move if for no other reason than to give us OBP at the top of the order. I just hate to see the M's playing musical chairs indecisively while the best available seats are all being taken.1 month 2 days ago
moethedoghave I missed something here? If we stand pat and bring in nobody else we are structured like this: Our 2nd CF is Miller or Jones. Miller and Cruz could share RF in a platoon, with Cruz moving back to DH when we face RHP. Romero and Montero then become our RH 1B options, getting some time at DH when Cruz is in RF. Kivlehan or Deej is potentially up soon. Choi is there when Morrison DL's. Such a scenario is doable but it makes three assumptions: 1. Miller can handle CF 2. Either Montero or Romero hits lefties 3. The AAA guys will be ready early.1 month 2 days ago
moethedogIndividually, none of those are long bets. I would bet on any one of them. But would you bet on all three of them? With "unknowns" such as that, I won't be surprised if we look for a "sure thing" if we make just one move. Signing Aoki and his .350 OBP leading off, is probably the MOST SIMPLE sure thing out there. it wouldn't be my first pick, but because of it's simplicity (and affordability) it won't surprise me if we go that way.1 month 2 days ago
TaroWould be nice to still have Saunders. I don't trust these guys to get creative.1 month 2 days ago
TaroI'm with Moe on Souza. Should be our primary target.1 month 2 days ago
moethedogSorry junior. I'm a one trick pony, I suppose. I'm not sure he's a HoF'er, but he sure looks like a guy who solves a COF/CF problem for us. He's got a solid pedigree, too. He's an unlikely get for us, admittedly. But we have things that Washington may need. Last year I was all over Van Slyke because of his upside and he solved our RHB COF/1B/DH problem in one fell swoop. This year it is the Washingon kid.....and Kivlehan. Hey, another post where I didn't say his name! :) Old dogs CAN learn new tricks it seems.1 month 2 days ago
jemanjiThanks for the shout there DaddyO, on several levels :- )1 month 2 days ago
jemanjiMoe can keep right on shoutin' … if and when Souza wins the ROY he can send us a postcard...1 month 2 days ago
rjjuniorWeird. A Moe posting without the word Souza in it. Must have hit Enter too soon.1 month 2 days ago
moethedogI read it Bat. I think Guti has some upside...but he has a huge downside, as in falling apart physically again. I don't think he's a guy you can sign and confidently pencil in to a critical role. Minor League contract (or a cheap MLB one) and let him prove himself. I think I wrote something like that in the Creative Options thread. I meant to, anyway. Unless we're in on some kind of Atlanta swap, we're down to FA's Rasmus and Aoki. I've been a Rasmus fan, as stated, but the more I look at it, Aoki as a leadoff hitter might be just fine, if the deal is right. He has no split issues, is a better than decent glove, and gets on base. We could do worse. Of course, it still leaves the CF hole we need to fill.....and the 1B one.1 month 2 days ago
Gordon GrossWell. Varvaro would be coming home if he came over here, and would free up a reliever to go elsewhere, right? ;)1 month 2 days ago
moethedogGordon, you're mostly right about Kivlehan and Deej in the wings, but the thing about Souza is his ability to play CF. He looks like he is going to hit and get on base....if he can play CF, too...he's a great guy to have. If Rios is only getting one year, Aoki is getting no more than two, btw.1 month 2 days ago
rick82Kendrys? Rios? Is the Royal strategy to sign bad ball players?1 month 3 days ago
DaddyORoyals to sign Rios per MLBTR. month 3 days ago
merksAnthony Varvaro has been designated and some of the Braves writers think he'll be packaged with Upton or Gattis soon.1 month 3 days ago
Gordon GrossStill think he's looking for one piece. Maybe it's as simple as Smith and Guti. If Guti can't go (again) then we have Miller and Jones lying around. They ain't righties, but we'll survive somehow. ;-) This would still be easier with Saunders on the roster tho. That chasm between him and management might have been impassable, and I like Happ FWIW, but I'm still waiting on the sewn-up roster to finish my opinions.1 month 3 days ago
Gordon GrossInteresting. I'm okay with skipping Rios, but we're running out of non-trade or non-homegrown options. I love Kivlehan, and was on board with DJ's drafting since before we drafted him. Either guy can play an OF/1B platoon shortly - but do we want it to be now, and without either man having a ton of time logged in the OF? Gonna be kind of like watching Ackey's first few months out there if we do. But why trade for Souza et al when we have stocked up on really good outfielders aimed at the bigs if we can just be patient? He'd need to be better, or allow us to trade what we already have. Not sure Jack trusts that... but he might have to.1 month 3 days ago
Gordon GrossDiaz is a low-A arm. He's the equivalent of Chris Tillman when we made the Bedard trade. I think he can absolutely get us something interesting - but not by himself. And to the Braves, not with Marte either since they have no real use for him. I'd be fine with doing it, but I don't see it happening that way. :) And yes, we either need to plan on using James Jones or Brad Miller as our defensive OF and go get a Gattis type who can pound lefties and backup Zunino, or go get a Saunders type (which Souza fits into).1 month 3 days ago
merksRoyals signing Alex Rios. One year $11 million.1 month 3 days ago
Bat571Moe, look at my comments on Guti in the "Creative Options" thread - wadda ya think? Not that I wouldn't want Souza - but the rest of the options just don't float my boat. Basically, a healthy Guti, even with some limitations, might be the ideal bridge to the guys that are coming!1 month 3 days ago
moethedogSomebody over on LL made the point that the natural platoon is in seattle already: Cruz in RF vs. lefties (and DHing the rest of the time) and Miller in RF vs. RHP. Interesting....I think the point has been made by Z or Mac that Cruz would play some RF. This fits that idea. It leaves us a 1B/DH who would DH vs. lefties. Uh...Montero anyone. Or Romero, waiting for Deej of Kivlehan to get here. That's possible, I suppose...but we're still a CF short, unless it's Miller. Souza would solve a lot of this, btw. COF/CF/1B.....1 month 3 days ago
merksI think the Bowden thing is Edwin Diaz and Ketel Marte. Bowden last year called the Cano signing well before anybody else that I heard so you never know1 month 3 days ago
SABR MattIf we could really get Upton for Marte all of a sudden...WOOHOO!!!!!!!!...somehow I doubt it.1 month 3 days ago
jemanjiG-Money: these fine-grain takes on situations like Marte/Peraza continue to smoke, brutha...1 month 3 days ago
moethedogUpton for Marte would be highway robbery on our part. We've got young SS's in spades. I'm in, if that is a honest-to-goodness possible deal. Cubs are sniffing around Rasmus it seems. In may ways, 2 years of Rasmus is a natural for us. In his 5 years he's OPS'ed .875, .695, .740, .893, .752 vR. So you can kind of bet that he's going to be .750-ish +, against RHP. Saunders was .781, .751, .831 vR the last three seasons. It's a wash, I suppose. I would prefer we get Souza, but Rasmus fits.1 month 3 days ago
Gordon GrossHarper is never gonna be available while under club control. Maybe the last 3 months of it, I guess. Bowden mentions us in the Upton trade market again, throws Marte's name in the mix despite the fact that the Braves have essentially his exact twin in Peraza as one of their best prospects. It's pretty easy to see how Bowden got fired - or he's just trolling for views... a lot. Wouldn't mind sending them Gabe Guerrero and some stuff though. We're trying to keep Taijuan, Pax and DJ & still make trades. Not easy. Keep Kiv too! To that end, Smith works for me, but no I won't take Maybin too.1 month 3 days ago
SABR looks like Smith is getting progressively more and more selective at the plate, resulting in better and better numbers against hard stuff (his value on fastballs is going up as he begins stalking fastballs, his O-sw and z-sw are both dropping rapidly and his contact rate is stable). Looks like a topspin hitter from the looks of his great disappearing popups. Maybe he's a better fit than I thought.1 month 3 days ago
SABR MattSmith is unlikely to translate well to Safeco. Doesn't hit the ball in the air enough to be a potent enough platoon guy and we'd have to be able to land a RH pair for him that is actually willing to platoon. The RH bats that are available in FA all want to start...except for Gomes who is terrible. Smith isn't going to help us. We need a full time starter or a guy who can not die a horrible death every time there's a lefty pitching...preferably a guy who gets on base and actually hits the ball hard.1 month 3 days ago
moethedogNo problem with Smith here, Gordon. He's not an Ethier-quality vR bat, but he's not coming off of a disaster year, either. Oh...he's significantly cheaper, btw. But he doesn't go play CF, which means the RHB platoon-guy we get to marry him to must play CF, as well. Can you say Souza? You might get Souza with Ackley. OK, add a MiLB OF bat, too. Then maybe you are there. Such a deal means that Miller becomes a COF, most likely. Souza plays 1B, too. We still don't have a 2nd one of those, unless it's Montero or Romero. We're we to sign Rasmus instead of Smith you could give Romero the vL AB's early and see what he's got. And I'm not quite sure what Bryce Harper's new contract means: is he signed for just two years or two year and then his arb cycle? I don't know. But I would sure send the Nats Walker for Harper.1 month 3 days ago
Gordon GrossFrom MLBTR: "The Nationals recently offered the Mariners both Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond in exchange for right-hander Taijuan Walker and shortstop Brad Miller, according to Rosenthal. However, the Mariners balked at giving up six years of Walker and five of Miller for just one year of Zimmermann and Desmond at a combined total of $27.5MM." Yeah, I can see that being a problem for us. They also say we're in on Seth Smith, which from a corner platoon POV is fine. I've said before that's an As sort of move.1 month 3 days ago
Gordon GrossOr... y'know, Montero... *bitterbeerface* Boy do I hope his 8th chance is the one he makes good on, I guess. Of course, he can't back up at C except in emergencies any more. Can't play the OF (LoMo can probably run faster backwards than Montero can forwards, and LoMo is nobody I want manning a lot of OF either). Can't hit righties. But there's always a chance, right? Between Clement and Montero I'm done with terrible catchers who have power as their only calling card. Thank goodness Zunino is good at D.1 month 3 days ago
Gordon GrossThere are several teams in on Gattis, TR, who would fit that bill. But the Braves don't have a huge incentive to deal him yet. A Gattis / Upton trade gives us things we need, but I dunno that we're willing to offer what they want to make that happen. Our #5 prospect is quite a bit better than some other teams, if you consider Paxton and Walker "prospects." Just because Baseball America considers them out of the prospect category doesn't mean MLB teams do, and we're kicking suitors down that list a bit before they get to "acceptable" trades.1 month 3 days ago
Tacoma RainIs it time to look at back up catchers who can play RF or 1B??1 month 3 days ago
moethedogAllen Craig, Matt. He's still there in Boston. He's likely available. There is interest. There are teams that think he's not done. It will likely be Rios, I think, but Crig will hit .300 again for somebody.Right now, however, our most pressing needs are a RF (regardless of handiness) who can play CF, too...and a COF/1B1 month 3 days ago
SABR MattI bet we did bid 4 years. I feel better now...can't do anything if the other side just doesn't want to play with you...Alex Rios it is.1 month 4 days ago
DaddyO@moe ... Today, I salute you, sir. On Jan 6th, it's "Hey you!" :)1 month 4 days ago
moethedogMuch appreciated Daddy. My last Mayoral day is Jan. 5th. After 6 terms I decided it was time to step aside. Hardest decision I've ever made. On Jan. 6th you rank me! :)1 month 4 days ago
DaddyOMayors take precedence over retired peons like me!1 month 4 days ago
DaddyOHah! Moe and me cross posted.1 month 4 days ago
DaddyO (see note at 4:24 pm)1 month 4 days ago
moethedogBTW: Somebody was willing (according to reports) to go 4 years. Us?: 4:24pm: Cabrera rejected a four-year offer from an unknown team because his preference was to play for the White Sox, tweets’s Jon Heyman.1 month 4 days ago
DaddyONow per MLBTR an unknown West Coast team did in fact bid four years for M.Cabrera, but he decided he preferred to play for the White Sox. Seems plausible that the mystery WC team was Seattle. That would explain a lot. Perhaps Jack signaled a fourth year was doable only to be signaled back that it just wasn't going to happen. If so, then Jack did do everything he reasonably could.1 month 4 days ago
moethedogThinking about Souza, I was scouring some Nats' sites and their Harper dissatisfaction was a topic of interest. In all seriousness I began to wonder if we were discussing the less likely Nat: If you could get Bryce Harper and change for Taijuan Walker and change would you do the deal? I don't know what to read into the Harper issue. Is it their version of our Saunders events? I love Souza, but why not make a bid for Bryce Harper. The upside is huge and you hope Cano, Seager and Mac can get him to grow up some. Young stud for young stud would get everybody's attention. Beyond that I will add this: Matt, Seth Smith is way cheap and his career vR numbers are ,277-.358-.481. He's all we hope that Ackley and Saunders would become, vR. He's doesn't hit LHP with a darn, but we could do worse with the bat. Endy for example. Alas, he doesn't play CF. Which makes him a less than likely fit.1 month 4 days ago
Bat571But trading for a younger, faster guy is a better plan than hoping.1 month 4 days ago
Bat571Hence my Christmas wish for Mr. Jones!1 month 4 days ago
SABR MattRios is, honestly, not a bad fit in the 2 hole either. Get a lefty who can play some CF to help out.1 month 4 days ago
Bat571Looks like Rios, to me. I thought he was a "for sure" 'til he switched to Boras and started laying low waiting for teams to get desperate to run up his price. Well, maybe that is working - I expect he'll get 2 years now and probably $10M a year, rather than the 1/$8.5M that MLBTR predicted. But, trying to be rational about it, a 2-year contract fits better with what's coming than a longer one. And, though his splits last year were pretty wide (much wider than his career split of .749 vR, .800 vL) , a .646 against RH wouldn't have been the worst OPS amongst Ms regulars, and the .898 vL would surely have helped! So, here's hoping for Rios, with a trade for a younger, faster guy to supplement. And a Christmas wish for Montero to be what he looked like he could be and for JJ to learn to hit the bendy stuff.1 month 4 days ago
MtGrizzlyYeah, it's probably down to the 1-2 year contract guys with platoon issues now. Rios makes the most sense, I guess. Byrd, maybe, as a trade candidate that won't cost Walker or Paxton. One thing is for sure - the club cannot afford to go into ST with Endy Chavez as one of the top 4-5 OF in camp.1 month 4 days ago
SABR MattIf our offseason tops out at Aoki, Viciedo or Seth Smith, I'm going on a rage spree.1 month 4 days ago
benihanaSounds like we weren't outbid. With nobody willing to go four years Cabrera took the offer closest to the east coast as he indicated was his preference. I would have gone 4. /shrug. Let's get Upton.1 month 4 days ago
okdanReally want to see the M's go after an OBP guy for that #2 spot now. Zobrist, Fowler, Seth Smith, Aoki. Someone like that. Really bummed we couldn't get Melky to sign on the dotted line.1 month 4 days ago
DaddyOAlso, if this triggers Viciedo coming to the M's--- (apodosis omitted, just like in Genesis 3:22, with the same significance).1 month 4 days ago
DaddyOLooks like the M's just couldn't resist the urge to repeat last year's Cruz mistake, shooting themselves in the foot instead of making an obviously needed roster-completing move, all over a relative pittance. Granted this time they got Cruz before doing so, but in the end you can't help but wonder if next offseason we'll be looking back at this as a the gaffe that kept on giving all year, the mistake that cost us the playoffs.1 month 4 days ago
moethedogWe didn't get Melky BECAUSE we already had Cruz. This is a conservative FO and two 4 year/$50M FA's was very unlikely. There may be a fair argument in considering whether we should have just went and got Melky first.1 month 4 days ago
rick82Outbid by the ChiSox. Why didn't they go more? If I had to guess, I think we're gonna see that Upton deal. Failing that, apparently the M's are more bullish on Romero than we thought. And why not. In 526 AAA ABs he's batted .300 with 23 HRs and 110 RBIs, and we aren't talking Salt Lake City or Colo Springs. He's had his first exposure at the big league level last season so that's out of the way. He and Miller can sting the ball from opposite sides. The M's must really like their talent - enough to hold firm on what was still a darned competitive offer and meanwhile discuss the ability to go creative in the OF if necessary. But I think they've got an good offer on the table for Upton, and may be prepared to sweeten it. Lloyd said we need two bats. He wouldn't have said it if it weren't a preordained priority I don't think it takes Walker to get a one year rental. It would probably take DJ, Marte, and Hultzen or Sanchez.1 month 4 days ago
SABR MattThis is really...really dumb. Letting Cabrera go top Chicago is AWFUL baseball by Zduriencik. The best option left is a Rios/Rasmus platoon1 month 4 days ago
GLSI agree with Taro. Holding out on the 4h year for Melky makes very little sense to me.1 month 4 days ago
TaroSigh....will be pretty ticked off if the Ms dont find a legitimate starting RF. And I don't consier RIos or Vicieco legitimate options.1 month 4 days ago
TaroSo we go four years for Nelson Cruz's age 35-38 seasons, but can't go four for Melky's 31-34 seasons. . Completely don't understand it. I we were picking one, Melky was the better choice.1 month 4 days ago
TaroI'm not a fan of any of the alternatives the Ms are rumored to be interested in.. Rooting for Aoiki on cheap in the OF at this point.. Still want Souza but not holding my breath.1 month 4 days ago
TaroFrustrating that we weren't willing to go four.1 month 4 days ago
moethedogWe could do worse than 2 years of Rios and 2 of Rasmus, btw. The former seems more likely now, doesn't he. I would still Souza, and wouldn't mind giving up Ackley to get it done. As well, I have no doubt that Kivlehan is ready by June. All the same, two relatively affordable/complementary veterans seems about right. A reminder: We need another guy who can play 1B (Morrison isn't a great bet to avoid injury) and we need that 2nd CF. Which one are you betting on there: Rasmus or Souza or Miller?1 month 4 days ago
moethedogAnd here we go: Who's the next guy on our list? MLBTR.... The White Sox have agreed to terms with Melky Cabrera on a three-year contract,’s Bruce Levine tweets. The deal is pending a physical. Cabrera is a client of the Legacy Agency. I didn't think he wanted to come to Seattle.1 month 4 days ago
IcebreakerXMelky to the South Side.1 month 4 days ago
rick82Three U.S. born blacks out of a 40 man roster is actually pretty standard. Looking over previous M teams, it isn't out of the ordinary at all. The 80's had rosters that doubled the number, but not always.The 95 M's had two: Griffey, Vince Coleman. The 2001 team had Cammy, Rhodes, Al Martin, McLemore. It just seems like there used to be a lot more. Perhaps that's because such a high percentage of HOFers over the past 50 years were U.S. born blacks. Seems they once dominated the game. But even the 68 Cards had Brock, Flood, Gibson...and that's it. But they dominated the game.1 month 4 days ago
SABR MattI notice that a big chunk of the guys in baseball who are african american play CF. I find that interesting.1 month 4 days ago
rick82Austin....right, Bat. Thanks!1 month 5 days ago
Bat571I agree, Matt - getting Souza at this point, even though he's blocked in Washington will require either an overpay, or taking an unwanted contract back. But I'd still do Ackley and Medina for Souza and Leon in a heartbeat, even if it's an apparent overpay. Steamer has Souza at a .777 OPS, while they have Seager and Cruz at .767 and Morrison at .757 and Melky at .770. Cano is projected at .821. Yes, Souza would slot in nice between Seager and Morrison!1 month 5 days ago
John PierceThe excitement generated for Souza must be based on his impressive minor league stats and not on his really, really short, unimpressive, stint in the majors. I am not sure Z would be interested in someone like Souza to finish filling in the big league roster.1 month 5 days ago
Bat571Rick --I believe Austin Jackson is African-American as well. That gives the Mariners 3/40, which is 7.5% - about in line with all the other clubs. I agree there should be more, but the facilities, equipment and opportunities for high-level play have to be there also in their teen years - and in the "cold-weather" states that's a problem for all races and groups. The YMCAs and heated/AC'd basketball courts are much more inviting year-round.1 month 5 days ago
SABR Mattagreed GLS...I just think Souza is unlikely. He will cost a LOT more than VIciedo would.1 month 5 days ago
GLSThe thing about Viciedo is that he'll likely never be more than what he is. As a platoon player, he has some value if used correctly, but Souza has the upside to be a legitimate plus player.1 month 5 days ago
GLSTwo outfielders: 1) Melky and 2) Souza. I'd be pretty happy with that going into the season.1 month 5 days ago
John PierceDo we need more than Melky or somebody like him? Miller is the wild card that could fill in that 4th OF spot. Re-sign Chavez to go along with Bloomquist and you have a real versatile bench that could adequately fill in all the positions. Or not. ;))1 month 5 days ago
SABR Matttrade them Medina for Viciedo and sign Cabrera...we're locked and loaded.1 month 5 days ago
SABR MattZduriencik reportedly wants to add two outfielders. If he'd like to get us both Viciedo and Cabrera, I could live with that.1 month 5 days ago
SABR MattIn the 20s through the 50s, the game of choice for young black men in the cities was baseball. In the 60s and 70s it became basketball and football and has never looked back. Meanwhile, the kids (especially the poor) in the Caribbean and certain parts of Central and South America are now playing either baseball or soccer. Societal forces being what they are...the game will continue to get increasingly Hispanic as white baseball players begin to be distracted by soccer and lacrosse.1 month 5 days ago
SABR Mattat the present time, the game is 7.8% black, 2.2% asian, almost 40% Hispanic1 month 5 days ago
rick82James Jones and Taijuan Walker are currently the only African Americans on our 40 man roster (happy to be checked on this). The demographics of this game have really shifted.1 month 5 days ago
SABR MattI think Melky wants to feel wanted.1 month 5 days ago
okdanI think Melky wants to come here and play with Cano and Cruz. But he's holding out for that 4th year, because he'd feel embarrassed perhaps if he was only worth 3, when his two buddies got much more. He is 4 years younger than Cruz, after all.1 month 5 days ago
GLSI would just give Melky the 4th year. I'm not sure why it's an issue for a player that's been a pretty solid hitter for his career and can actually play an outfield corner. Granted, he's not winning a gold glove out there, but he can play the position.1 month 5 days ago
SABR Mattmerks - yes1 month 5 days ago
merksSo is it a coincidence that the M's are loading up on Dominican players as there DR Academy gets rolling or are they trying to create some kind of recruiting, symbiotic thing?1 month 5 days ago
SABR MattI'm bored, Z. Sign Cabrera, please.1 month 5 days ago
Bat571Last year is a QO or a $4M buyout; then he chooses which way he wants it. then at Cruz's level, which the Ms have said they're looking at, it's $46M guaranteed, and $56M+ if he deserves and takes the QO. Put a signing bonus on it to sweeten and let's go!1 month 6 days ago
SABR MattCabrera had said he wanted to stay east if he could...but all the east coast teams are ignoring now he's choosing between KC, Seattle and maybe Texas.1 month 6 days ago
SABR MattI think what Melky wants is the best contract he can get...and so far...that's Seattle's...but he's trying to get them to go up a little more.1 month 6 days ago
moethedogInteresting: I think it sounds like Melky doesn't want to head to Seattle. If he wanted to he would be here....Things may change.1 month 6 days ago
TaroWhat I love about this is that it sounds like Melky WANTS to got to Seattle. We just need to offer him something reasonable.1 month 6 days ago
SABR Mattall of those options should be on the table. Let him choose.1 month 6 days ago
benihanaI'd even do a vest / player option. 4th year vests with 500 appearances but player can void, sell it as a win-win.1 month 6 days ago
TaroJust give him 4 years guaranteed with lower AAV while hes on the ledge. 4/$50 seems fair. He could be worth another qualifying offer at the end of that deal. :-)1 month 6 days ago
SABR Matthe keeps saying he wants it guaranteed. If he really must have it guaranteed...I'd do it...but if you can sell him on "but you'll trigger this no problem's easy...we're just covering our butts in case you have something completely catastrophic if you get 400 PA in 2017, 2018 is" then I'd start with that.1 month 6 days ago
moethedog500 PA's in year 3. How's that.1 month 6 days ago
SABR MattSounds like Cabrera is leaning hard in our direction and just checking to make sure no one else wants to play.1 month 6 days ago
SABR Mattagreed...if Cabrera is now "seeking 4" instead of "seeking 5" that means we're winning. Sounds like no one is offering four right now. All we have to do is give him a 4th year vest with an easy lid.1 month 6 days ago
TaroThank you Cano. Seems like a matter of time. :-)1 month 6 days ago
benihanaRojas reporting the M's have offered Melky a 3 year deal and he's looking for a 4? I agree with Colin O'Keefe that this sounds like a leak from Melky's camp saying "going... going...?" - Melky at 3 years would be a coup, heck 'give in' and give him a vested fourth year with 500 plate appearances in year 3.1 month 6 days ago
SABR MattThis is why you get your air craft carriers in they can sell your club to other good players. :)1 month 6 days ago
MtGrizzly@RyanDivish: Cano said he's spoken briefly to Melky Cabrera about signing with the Mariners. And told him how much he and Cruz could help the team1 month 6 days ago
gnattoI'd do that in a second... which means it's probably not an even trade.1 month 6 days ago
Bat571Add Medina to the deal for their bullpen?1 month 6 days ago
Bat571Washington still needs a 2B and some bullpen help. Still have dreams of getting Fister back, and thoughts of how nice Souza would fit on the 2015 club. If the Nats really want to dump Desmond, maybe there's still a deal in there? Fister, Desmond and Souza (both ML guys on one year deals left) for Ackley, Marte, Ramirez, and Guerrero +? (Guerrero as their Werth replacement in 2017?) Wonder what it would really take? I wouldn't do Paxton or Walker, but maybe Happ along with the others? If Melky and the Ms can meet at 4 years at Cruz-type pay, it would be nice.1 month 6 days ago
moethedogI'm in on that whole scenario. Find me that CF/RF/1B type of guy now to go along with. BTW, if Bloomie isn't locked in at utility/25th/play everywhere guy, we could have used one of those guys. Actually could be our own Romero, if he sees 2B and 3B time in ST. Even with Miller as McClemore we still need another guy who has an IF's glove.1 month 6 days ago
SABR Mattagreed Bat...was just talking about 20151 month 6 days ago
Bat571I want Miller to do a Yount - move to CF when Jackson leaves (supersub 'til then to get reps) and win some GG out there, while hitting the way he's showed he can.1 month 6 days ago
SABR MattI want Miller as supersub...SS/3B/2B/OF.1 month 6 days ago
moethedogMuch of our OF speculation is dependent on Miller's role in '15 and beyond. It seems the M's think his footwork issues are serious enough to mean he must move off of SS, at least as a primary position. I can live with that as a transition to OF should be of no real challenge to him. So he goes to the OF. In '15 that would likely mean that he's the 4th OF and a BU SS. Lots of starts available as such, especially if he comes out of the OF blocks with some CF skills. If that is the Miller role, then Seth Smith/Rasmus talk is unneeded. But we still need that RH OF bat. Actually I would prefer we get a Smith/Rasmus guy AND Souza, still keeping Miller as an OF. It's Ackley I worry about. But whoever we get needs CF skills. Souza is going to be good. Kivlehan, too. Add miller to that group and you have a nice OF going forward.1 month 6 days ago
SABR Mattdon't really care about defense as a value floor. If you don't hit, I don't want you.1 month 6 days ago
okdanIf I remember right, Taro called his shot on Seth Smith several years ago, hoping the M's would target him. Looking at Souza, is he a similar kind of player? Perhaps that type of player template has a higher degree of working out. Certainly Souza's defense provides a nice floor of value in case his bat doesn't play as well.1 month 6 days ago
TaroMontero's 2011 line in AAA for example was projected for a .261/.312/.435 line by ZIPS. He basically hasn't improved at all since then. Given his career line is .258/.302/.396 thats pretty close regressing for Safeco.1 month 6 days ago
TaroBasically Montero was all projection, whereas Souza is good NOW with projection beyond that.1 month 6 days ago
TaroI was huge on Montero's potential, and I was wrong. But to be fair Montero never put up the MLEs that Souza did. Souza projects as a 2-3 WAR player NOW based on what he did in AAA. Montero never did, he was incredible based on age related performance at his level and had massive power upside. But he never performed as well as Souza. His MLEs were in the 0-1 WAR range and he just never got better from there. Souza RIGHT NOW is above-average player. Montero never was.1 month 6 days ago
moethedogI'm with Matt: Rios and Rasmus would be delightful! I'm with Taro: Souza will indeed be a player. But you could probably get both Rios and Rasmus for what Melky will cost per/year. 2X$8-$10M (with an option year) for Rasmus and something similar for Rios. Or just do Rasmus AND Souza, making all or us happy. You can get Souza fairly easily and sign Rasmus and have money to spend. Souza, btw, plays 1B, too. LoMo will need some breathers.1 month 6 days ago
SABR MattHow much did you love Jesus Montero before we traded for him?1 month 6 days ago
TaroJust think Souza is a player. I like his combination of athleticism, swing, and performance.1 month 6 days ago
SABR MattRomero, Montero, Smoak, Peguero, Balentien, many more. So many you won't possibly remember them all. And all but a scant tiny fraction of them have panned out. And that is not unique to the Mariners. There is a massive zero gravity moon step difference between an awesome AAA hitter and a proven major leaguer. All players have risks...but some are less risky than others. And for the record, Cruz's home run power transcends Safeco rather easily...and his hitter's park in Baltimore...has a mediocre at best HR factor to left. So...yeah...not worried about Cruz.1 month 6 days ago
SABR your insights and all...but how many guys have we promoted in the last 12 years who had great minor league numbers?1 month 6 days ago
TaroEvery player you roster has some risk involved, included proven MLBers. Cruz will be a RH backspin 35 year old slugger with a career sub .330 OBP in hitters parks, and we've signed him for 4 years. I'd be more nervous about him than Souza in 2015, and especially beyond that. Souza has the performance in the high minors combined with insane athleticism. I think hes underrated due to being a football convert and a late bloomer.1 month 6 days ago
SABR Mattyou don't take that sort of risk when this is the best chance you have of winning the WS. Souza can be a fourth outfielder option...not a starter.1 month 6 days ago
GLSSouza is a risk, but a pretty good one.1 month 6 days ago
SABR MattSouza is not reliable. That's not sufficient to this moment.1 month 6 days ago
TaroI'm thinking Melky would want 'at least' 4 years gauranteed if hes looking for 5. If Ms stay hard at 3 they won't land him, vesting option for 4th or not. Just give him 5 with a lower AAV. 5/$55 or something in that range. Or deal for Souza (my favorite option).1 month 6 days ago
SABR MattRasmus and Rios would be a fine platoon with CF helper potential and would be cheaper than Cabrera. I like Cabrera better even with more money involved, but Rios/Rasmus would also be fine with me.1 month 6 days ago
Gordon GrossRios and Rasmus would be... extensive. By himself I'm not huge on Rios. A Rios/Rasmus platoon would be damaging. Playing with brass knuckles. I hope the Ms take the velvet gloves fully off this offseason. Zduriencik has waited half a decade to wade into the fight with fists flying - let's make it worth the wait. I'm fine with making Beane cry into his collapsing-budget cup o' coffee.1 month 6 days ago
SABR MattRasmus. If you get Rios and Rasmus, the outfield aligns OK1 month 6 days ago
moethedogThe Rios card might not bluff the Melky team guys: In '12 Rios was a heck of a player. In '11 he was a dud. In '13 and '14 he was basically a split heavy .280-.320-.420 guy with a pretty scraggly glove. There doesn't seem to be much Rios market out there right now, which might be a neat quality. You could probably get him for 2 years and not break the bank. Over the last two years Viciedo has hit RHP at a .738 and .689 clip. Rios has hit at .714 and .646 rate. Just saying. But he does continue to beat lefties up, so as a 4th OF-paired with Ackley, as Matt suggests, Rios would be great. He's been at .889 and .898 vL the last two years. That's rip-roaring. But it means that you need a RF who can play CF, as Rios no longer does.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogRios and Miller would be a neat combo, perhaps. If the hint that we had interest in Seth Smith is true that might also be a place to go. Smith and Rios would be an interesting tandem. But you're still a CF short. Smith is what you hope Ackley becomes. And he's cheap for 3 years. But unless it's Jones, Miller or Endy...we need a CF glove to go with the one we've got. Bloomie? No thanks...1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattWouldn't mind also getting Rios to pair with Ackley1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiYep that 5.7 RC/27, delivered game-in game-out, is looking pretty sweet. Good Kendrys plus wheels1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI hope that's what they do...I want Melkman.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiMatt: exactly. Gotta leave the face-saving buffer space to sweeten your "ultimatum."1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiGood call on Desmond there Taro … is trending down … trends aren't the absolute (I'll take a Cano, even if trending down, over Franklin age 26) but Dr. D and the HQ mouse in his pocket agree.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattyes, true. "'re not going to get ifve years guys...but maybe we can do four if the fourth is a vest for 130 games played in 2017 - deal?"1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiPuts them in a position tho to close the deal. "We're going to go with Rios. If we did an easy vesting option on Melky for the 4th year, would we be getting close? Gotta decide tonight."1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattgrrr...nails on a chalkboard if it's true that the Mariners won't go past three years for Cabrera. That's just dumb.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Matthm....I always thought Elsa was the principle villain of that movie until Anna made her see the light. :)1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiIce Palace, conjured out of nothing, like Frozen. A lame homeowner but a dazzling jewel box to display the protagonist in1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattthis should be fun...beni is killing it over us a palace to live in.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiThanks go to Ben there Matt … where you, Gordon, and Spec are on the front page, that's pretty much up to you and Ben … I'm flexible. I loved the bottom row on his bidness site but I think he has an even better idea1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossThat's quite a layout Benihana is putting together. VERY swanky, and only gonna get swankier from the looks of things (and from some of the potential plug-ins like a chatroom for games or whatnot). Lookin' good!1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI'd go ahead and give Melky the fifth year if he'd take 60 mil. 5/60 is cheaper than 4/541 month 1 week ago
SABR the general look and feel of the new site, Doc...where would your co-contributors be features in a site designed like the menu bar below the front panel?1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiPreview Benihana's artistry at Desmond HQ'able at old drdetectovision WordPress1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossBTW, if Melky is seriously looking for a 5/60 deal and no one will go beyond three... give him year four, call it 4/50 and take an offseason victory lap. That's cheaper over 4 years than CarGo is over 3. Boras is just gonna jerk us around over Rios, and I'm not in the mood. Glad that Dutton thinks we're cool on Desmond and on Taijuan+ for Upton. Gimme my bat and let's break for a celebratory dinner.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossDesmond loves to swing for the fences, and that's a tough row to hoe in Safeco as a righty glove infielder. I'm fine with Melky, or with CarGo from the Rox for moderate pieces. I'd be fine with Rasmus and Souza. I'm NOT fine with Viciedo. I like the Rule 5 kid, and am glad we've gotten Seager extended, Cruz signed and I'm even good with Saunders for Happ depending on what we do after that. Still got that large and looming hole in RF, tho... let's not fall back to some of these worthless positions, shall we?1 month 1 week ago
TaroEnough with these Miller for Desmond rumors and Viciedo…. Enough. We should be talking to the Nats about Souza, but I'm giving up on that as there are rumors pointing to it. Just sign Melky, and end the madness.1 month 1 week ago
TaroDesmond is trending down. 4 years straight of declining SwS% and contact rate. His K rate jumped last year and AVG took a hit. In fact his BABIP was lucky in 2014 compared to his historical rates (jump in pop ups, decline in LDs). SS defense declining. Class buy high scenario and profile of a player that is aging early. HUGE NO. Makes no sense whatsoever. I would not even be confident that he'd be an upgrade in 2015 over Miller with the league switch and Safeco (which is a horrible match for his swing).1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossThe Royals let Billy Butler go to the As for 3/30 and then their replacement plan is... 2/17 for Kendrys? I mean, it saves you 1.5 mil a year, but really? Betting on the rebound, I guess, or they REALLY thought Butler was done.1 month 1 week ago
rick82Heh, we gave them Morse, we gave them Rendon, we took Morse off their hands. We pretty much handed them Fister. That good catcher they have? - I remember when he was a consolation prize in trade talks with Minnesota. We wouldn't pull the trigger and they swooped in and got a very good catcher. Didn't they have Raffy Soriano at one time? I want something good in return from that franchise for all we've done for them. And I'm not talking the next old version of Jose Vidro.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossWe already gave Rendon to the Nats - I guess we're just trying to help out around the rest of their infield.1 month 1 week ago
drmMaybe it includes an OF? I really don't get the M's trading for a SS. I feel like these rumors all come from the other teams because the M's don't talk. It's kind of annoying,all these trade rumors so lopsided against the M's.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossDesmond and Souza for Miller (and a relief arm, I assume) might have some traction. But the Desmond thing seems to be picking up steam.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattDesmond for Miller would be world class stupid.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossThe rumor mill is very insistent on this Ian Desmond for Brad Miller thing. It does seem like it's Washington pushing the deal to get Miller (per Rosenthal and others who are probably quoting Rosenthal). It's nice to have players other people want, for once.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogKivlehan will likely be ready (me talking) by the time we would call him up early, give him 40 Tacoma games, or so.....SF just won a WS with Joe Panik playing an core role: Is his pedigree (at this point) any better than Kivlehan's> Give me a RF who OPS's anywhere north of 105 and we will be fine. Pay $57M to get 130 from Melky. I want that RF bat, too. But we could do with a Rasmus type and then Kivlehan, when he's "ready."1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossI'd be trying to pawn Viciedo off on somebody too if I were the ChiSox. It had better not be us unless there's a genius plan at work that requires some sort of ritual sacrifice.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossKivlehan's not ready. I'm tired of throwing guys who aren't ready and haven't seen enough pro pitches up to the bigs and watching them struggle for the first 2-3 years of their careers offensively because they're not ready. Seager was a success. But Zunino? Should be getting to the bigs now, MAYbe. Ackley was rushed to his detriment. Same with Romero. I don't want Kivlehan to be the next Romero. We can't afford that # of squandered ABs.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattGlad to hear from Divish and Dutton that this Viciedo thing is likely from them, not us. Viciedo is TERRIBLE.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI am not pinning this season on Kivlehan. I'm a big Kivlehan fan, but I'm really gosh darned tired of hoping we can win if our rookie with not very much high minors time can miraculously land with a splash.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogRasmus/Kivlehan : How about that? Viciedo hits lefties and that has value...but as I've pointed out, he must be part of a deal that includes a lefthand bat who plays CF. If that isn't Miller, then it's somebody we get. I've said all along that I wouldn't kick if we just told Kivlehan, "Hit the ball!" But even then, we need the other CF, unless it is Jones, who I'm not in on.1 month 1 week ago
benihanaSantana to Minnesota 4/$54. I love me some J.A. Happ.1 month 1 week ago
drmMaybe James Shields?1 month 1 week ago
mojicianWhat are the Tigers doing? They haven't signed Scherzer, who is a 220 inning per year free agent, and they just traded Porcello, who is a 200 inning per year man. What if Scherzer doesn't come back? The Tigers' rotation will be Verlander and Price and then roll the dice. Or something.1 month 1 week ago
benihanaBob Dutton tweeting Viciedo talks have cooled. Divish indicating that interest last year and likely now stemming from Chicago not the M's.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossColby Rasmus is the only guy who comes to mind, since he hits righties pretty well, can play D when he wants to, and is deficient against same-handed pitching (.650 OPS vs. lefties, .790 vs, righties). But why Viciedo as the other half of that kind of platoon?1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossThe ONLY way that makes even a bit of sense is if they're bringing in a good-fielding lefty OF and they're gonna platoon RF. Who would that be? Aoki doesn't mash righties (in fact, hits better against lefties for his career, so why platoon him?), Ichiro can't hit righties AT ALL now... who would be the left-handed RF in question who's worth a platoon with the otherwise-useless Viciedo?1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossViciedo is a replacement level player, literally. There's no good reason for that to be our final add. He'll probably make a little less than Saunders will, but not a lot less, and Saunders is the far superior player. Being able to hit lefty pitchers decently is only useful for about 150 at-bats a year - I don't want to pay him $3+ million for that solitary skill. There would have to be another move there, and I don't see what it would be. I'll be pretty ticked off too, Matt.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattYou will never have seen me so angry about the Mariners if their second big move is Viciedo. Bullcrud.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Matt#$%^&($^%&()#$^%&()$^%&(*)$#^%&()%R$^*()#$%^&*()$^&(*) Mariners and White Sox in "serious talks" regarding Viciedo. The thing we'd give up would be a reliever. This completely and totally blows.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattto get all the pitchers on here...we will have to carry a THREE man bench...not four. Because the bullpen will have eight guys in it.1 month 1 week ago
SpectatorHad to double check myself here. Lucas Luetge in 2011 was ALSO 24, ALSO in AA, ALSO had been previously drafted by Z, ALSO struck out 32 lefties and ALSO walked just 6 lefties (though he faced 112 instead of 86), and ALSO gave up just 3 XBH to lefties (though his were all doubles). Freaky.1 month 1 week ago
benihanaMasterson will earn $9.5MM plus incentives. I ain't sad about getting J.A. Happ, not sad at all. And Matt, the M's are gonna have to run a 4 man bench with one spot taken up by back-up catcher. Miller/Taylor, Willie B, gotta have guys there that can go everyday and play multiple positions. Another reason why Saunders wasn't a fit. Can't afford to take days off with such a short bench.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattRollins..interesting choice...not sure how we're going to cram all these pitchers onto the roster.1 month 1 week ago
SpectatorRollins faced 86 LH hitters in 14 at AA, struck out 32, walked just 6 and .065 ISO-against (2 doubles, 1 HR). Can't argue with that.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossIf you want a cheat-sheet, then Rollins = lefty Farquhar. Much like Danny gets a bit too in love with his cutter when he doesn't need to, Rollins can be a bit too happy to throw a changeup or slider and keep dudes around in games. But the stuff is there, and the arm is live. IMO, a good and cheap pickup by Jack to fill a hole, if one of the best pens in baseball has such a thing as a hole.1 month 1 week ago
SpectatorNo M's got taken in the major-league phase.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossI wondered if we were gonna steal a lefty in the Rule 5 to add to our pen options from that side. Rollins is a cheap bet, especially with a slider that gets really good marks and an up-to-mid-90s heater. I've only seen him throw a couple times, but he looks hard to pick up. If you're gonna get a LOOGY, get one with a killer breaking ball. We've got a couple options there now. I like the bet. He should explode with only a pen role to worry about.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossLara is probably a better 1B prospect than Alex Liddi was... but no, I don't expect anybody to jump on him. Ogando shouldn't go anywhere. He can't throw strikes yet, and you can't carry him long enough to work that out (unless it's a Matt Thornton situation I guess). Pries could probably hurt us the most simply from a pitching depth perspective in the upper minors, but nobody's really at risk this year. Without trade, IIRC next year will be a different story. Blash might go, just for a look. Be like someone stealing Peguero.1 month 1 week ago
SpectatorOops. Haste makes waste. Padna was right. M's drafted Rollins in 08 and 09, not 09 and 10. For the Record.1 month 1 week ago
SpectatorM's take David Rollins, LHP from Astro org. in Rule 5 draft. They actually drafted him twice in 09 and 10 in the regular draft, but he didn't sign until picked by BlueJays in 11. Oddly enough, went to Houston in the trade that sent J.A. Happ to Toronto. Numbers are fairly interesting at first glance, but not one of the guys Baseball America listed, even as a lefty specialist. Jon Sickles had him listed under "others." Just so ya know.1 month 1 week ago
SilentpadnaM's pick up Rollins from the Astros in Rule 5. 3rd time's the charm I guess after drafting him twice ('08 and '09)...1 month 1 week ago
benihana2 years 17-18.5 million for Morales. No thank-you.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattnice pick-up for the sox after trading for Porcello...their rotation of the Wade Miley thing goes through would be basically 5 #3s.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattooooh my...the Royals signing Morales to multi-year deal??? that is sooooooo bad1 month 1 week ago
benihanaMasterson to Sox, Morales on a multi-year? deal to KC. Ha.1 month 1 week ago
benihanaDon't Panic. Unless of course panicking means signing Melky. Then go ahead. Panic.1 month 1 week ago
TaroI think the Dodgers and Red Sox did great here.1 month 1 week ago
SpectatorRule 5 draft coming up soon. Baseball American sez Steven Baron or Jochi Ogando could get picked from M's. No great loss. We've got plenty of RH pen options ahead of Ogando. Baron is a bust. Predicts that eligible Jabari Blash and Jordy Lara won't get picked since too far away from helping on an MLB roster. Lara isn't really a prospect in my book anyway though I know he has his fans. I could see someone taking a longshot look at Blash since that kind of raw power doesn't come around every day. FWIW.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattZ can't keep sitting on his hands...we need to get something done here.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattTigers also talking to the Reds about getting a replacement starter.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattdone deal...Cespedes goes to the Tigers.1 month 1 week ago
okdan$31M going back to the Padres. And now I'm seeing rumors of Cespedes to DET for Porcello??1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattKemp to San Diego done...salary agreed1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiWhich is typical Mo' Dawg, the quick extension. Article up bro. Deal, if any, would probably hinge on signals from Zim camp.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogWalker = Zimmerman only if there are years added to Zimm's contract. One and done isn't good enough.1 month 1 week ago
misterjonezI thought the Dodgers acquisition of Rollins was basically a done deal? That team keeps taking on salary; it makes me wonder when they're going to finally shed some of their existing payroll. That Markakis deal makes Ethier slightly more movable, which strikes me as kind of bonkers.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattDodges were supposedly close to landing Rollins as they fixed their middle infield...sort of.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattso it's a three team trade...Dodgers get their 2B...Angels now have a massive hole on their infield...color me confused.1 month 1 week ago
merksLooks like the Angels are acquiring Andrew Heaney from Dodgers for Howie Kendrick. Dodgers have been busy today.1 month 1 week ago
misterjonezRight. But the deal *must* include a long-term solution to a COF spot if we're surrendering Walker. I agree with you two there, and yeah...Zimmermann in this rotation makes it potentially historic.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattSouza would jobshare with Miller perhaps in LF, Melky plays right (because right is smaller in Safeco) and your ballclub is: CF) Jackson RF) Cabrera 2B) Cano DH) Cruz 3B) Seager 1B) Morrison LF) Souza/Miller C) Zunino SS) Miller/Taylor with a rotation of King Felix / Iwakuma / Zimmermann / Paxton-Elias-Happ (holy CROW!!) and a bullpen of 8Xflamethrower sign me up1 month 1 week ago
TaroYa Matt, I would think the Nats would strongly consider that. Add Melky and our roster is terrifying.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI'd do Walker and Ackley for Zimmermann + Souza + low minors prospect1 month 1 week ago
TaroI'd do Walker for Zimmerman + Souza. An ace for 2015 + Long term solution in OF with an athletic young player that is very well rounded (hit, walk, power, speed, defense). + pick next year.1 month 1 week ago
misterjonezAgreed, Taro. Souza by his lonesome is a better fit, and would probably be worth a bit to this club. I'm not entirely sure how we would incorporate Zimmermann, anyway...Felix, Kuma, Happ, Paxton, Elias and Walker makes six already, forgetting about Hultzen lurking in the shadows like a cowled Darth Maul with only his demonic eyes visible beneath his hood. Depth is all well and good, but at the expense of giving Walker and Paxton cracks at breaking into the league in a big way? I'm not sure it's a good idea. The only way it makes sense to me is if Walker gets us Kemp, in which case I understand the desire to push the chips in for the 2015 season by acquiring Zimmermann. This team, plus Zimmermann and Kemp, would be pretty amazing though and would probably be worth sacrificing Walker. Too bad LAD pushed Z off with their demands.1 month 1 week ago
TaroWhy are we targeting Desmond and not Souza? Zimmerman + Souza is a much better fit for our roster.1 month 1 week ago
misterjonezYeah, it makes me wonder if Jack started with something more along the lines of "Ackley for Desmond, or Ackley+Elias for Desmond and Zimmermann," and the Nats countered with the rumored "Miller+Walker" stuff. I have a hard time believing that Jack would go anywhere near that for a pair of nothing more than quality rentals, especially when he won't fork over Walker for Kemp/Upton according to reports.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogA terrible offer. Were Zimmerman signed for 5x$17M, or something like that and the bat you send was Ackley, well then a guy would go, "Hmmmmmmm," just because you could swap out the one year of Desmond with some other team. But even then, it would be 5 years of Zimmerman for Walker and Ackley for whatever Desmond could bring. Actually, that I might do. But Zimmerman isn't signed and Ackley isn't in the deal. A bad no good ugly offer.1 month 1 week ago
misterjonezOk, I short-sold Zimmermann a little bit. He had a nifty year in 2014, so he'd get Cy Young votes if he did that again. But I'm still not sure that the marginal upgrade he provides would be worth all that much to the M's, who already have an extremely talented rotation. Still, the draft picks next year for he and Desmond would be intriguing...not worth Taijuan Walker, I don't think, but definitely intriguing.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattand given that we didn't want to give up walker for KEMP...I'm gonna guess Z left that meeting angry1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattthat is a HILARIOUSLY bad trade offer...if someone offered me that in fantasy, I'd block their email address and never trade with them again.1 month 1 week ago
misterjonezYeah, no way I'd do that if I was Z. If it was somehow Zimmerman and Kemp (I know, it would take a 3+ team deal) for Walker and Miller, that would actually make sense. But no way do we give up TWO cost-controlled, elite prospects for a pair of rentals neither of which, while being very good players in their own rights, are MVP/Cy Young contenders. That would be a bad, bad idea. But like I said, if somehow you swapped Desmond for Kemp, that actually gets some traction.1 month 1 week ago
benihanaNats wanted to do Zimmerman and Desmond for Walker and Miller according to Ryan Dvish, M's said no.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattLOL that is quite an image G1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossHonestly, that's a "Desmond and Fister for Miller and stuff" kind of conversation, I would have to guess. Still makes no sense.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossThere's no good reason to be interested in a year of Desmond. Jack is troling reporters at the Winter Meetings after emptying the minibar and gorging himself on mini-sausages crowned with olives.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogHow weird is this: (MLBTR) The Nationals and Mariners have discussed Ian Desmond on several occasions but talks between the two teams have yet to really gain traction, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter). Washington likes Brad Miller, so conceivably the young shortstop could be part of a larger package the M’s would send back to D.C. Desmond is a FA after '15. He can swing the RH bat.....but this is weird-weird. One year of him for Miller? Eeeeek. If there is any truth to the rumor...there must be other significant players involved. Weird...1 month 1 week ago
merksPer Rosenthal Nationals talking with M's- Ian Desmond for Brad Miller and pieces. Nothing close at this time but have spoken often.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattwhat the...???????...the Mariners are interested in Ian Desmond?? WWWWHHHY?1 month 1 week ago
misterjonezInteresting deal between LAD and MIA. Miami sends a quartet of players to LA in exchange for Dee Gordon and Dan Haren (whose $10mil salary will be picked up by LA, assuming he doesn't go through with his threat of retirement in the event he finds himself playing anywhere but SoCal). The Dodgers get a cool SP in Heaney, who was the #9 pick overall in 2012, but I'm not really sure what this trade does for them overall. Seems strange for a team that's talked incessantly about wanting to shed salary in recent months.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattNeither Morse, nor an everyday player. The Mariners need an everyday RFer1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiAnd one of the beat writers said, rather darkly "If you want to be an everyday player, you need to be ready when called on" ...1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossSo I agree with moj - might was well talk about adding Stanton this offseason for all the likelihood of it happening. Watch, now they'll sign morse and neither he nor Cruz will be able to play the OF. It'll be hilarious.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossMorse will never come back here after we cost him millions with a misdiagnosis and then compounded that by telling him it was all in his head and he was a weak-minded ballplayer, essentially.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianAfter listening to Michael Saunders talk about being traded, I don't think he was very cool with being in a platoon or a fourth outfielder or a supersub or having days off. Many bloggers wanted to see Saunders in the supersub role. Condor wants a starting job above all else, probably for free agency purposes. <> Saunders probably forced the trade with a demand to get everyday playing time. I think this is a little bit delusional of Condor, as his fades and sprains from everyday playing time were predictable as clockwork, and could probably been avoided and mitigated with half time play.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianI think this is all academic. When Morse played for the Mariners,the team didn't discover the spiral fracture, or whatever it was, in his wrist, and the ownership and fans ran him out of town on a rail after he hit like a feeb. I don't think the Mariners and Morse and sending each other Christmas cards anymore.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattMorse's tremendous power translated in 18 homers last year. Not convinced he's got tremendous power anymore.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiThere&#039;s a solid argument against Cruz. We have 2 articles up as to his consistency. The 7 Surprising Things and the Taste the Triple Guns pieces. Suspensions aside, Cruz has missed about the same # of games 2012-14 as Robinson Cano. He has provided *end results* rather than component skills.1 month 1 week ago
TaroDoc, you have a point on RBI with HR hitters, but I its too much a premium to pay. In general I'll swap an 780 OPS for a 780 OPS. I prefer the HR hitter, but won't pay much of a premium for it.1 month 1 week ago
TaroAll that said, I'm cool with it as long as we actually DO spend the money. If its Cruz and Melky, then great. If its Cruz and Viciedo, then I have a major problem with it.1 month 1 week ago
TaroNo its all good. That's just the thing though. How do we know we can count on Cruz? Hes an aging bat. Morse has a slightly better career wRC+ and OPS+, played in more pitchers parks in his career, and hes younger. He was terrible with us due to his injury, but I wouldn't see that as a problem going forward. Predicting aging hitters is extremely difficult.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Matt(p.s. just so we're clear...I'm speaking with intention hyperbole to make a point and to be somewhat entertaining/funny...not attacking you, taro)1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattGiven that we tried Morse before, and he hurt himself blinking too hard and then whined about the Mariner medical staff...I'm inclined to say enough is enough with the 33 year old guys who might be OK if they miraculously defy father time and stay healthy. STOP THE MADNESS...sign someone you can count on.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattwho cares about cheap now, taro? Seriously...who...the...heck...CARES? We should be spending like drunks. That is all there is to it...we have a regional sports network and are showing the willingness to up payroll to 140 million. We have a flotilla of young, talented players coming up to fill in the holes at any time and a GM whose specialty IS young cheap players and who has proven to be TERRIBLE at picking cheap veterans.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiIn fairness, we've been speculating on the Corey Harts, Michael Morses, Holdout Kendryses, Jack Custs, and Milton Bradleys for quite a few years. All those guys have Nelson Cruz' skill set on paper. What they lacked was 100 RBI off the paper ;- )1 month 1 week ago
TaroI see Morse vs Cruz projecting similarly over the next couple years. It wouldn't shock me if Morse out produced him or if Cruz were slightly better. You never know when guys will age. The difference in contracts is going to be massive. Morse is just a cheaper, better gamble IMO. But the deal is done, so it is what it is. Take the upgrade and add to it.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI mean no offense taro...none at all...but Morse??? You really think he's the guy to get us into the world series? If you have the money to spend to get a legit MOTO spend it, even if you have to overpay a bit. I think Cruz will finish around .260/.315/.490-.500 and be worth +30-+35 runs on offense.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattMorse is absolute cow dung. Anyone saying the answer to our shortage of right handed power is Mike Morse is not understanding the depth fo the problem and is overestimating Morse's ability to stay healthy and productive consistently. Just no. We had 40 million dollars to spend this offseason...wasting any on Morse when there were better options we could afford is just plain foolish.1 month 1 week ago
GrumpyMaybe the fallback is to sign Morse and then have Cruz in for a RF-DH rotation? Maybe they don't want to block the upcoming OF prospects for 4-5 years? Who knows what they're thinking.1 month 1 week ago
TaroViciedo is just one of a thousand guys that can't check a slider. Add his terrible defense and you have a RL player. Even adjusting for BABIP, Viciedo was under replacement level last year.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiBenihana's shout: +1. James has discussed this some. In a softball game that is 31 to 27, there's no difference between a single and an HR; you just want to avoid an out. The "ticking time bomb" baseball game is when the score is 0-0 or 1-1 all the way through, nobody can string offensive events, and you're waiting for a hero. Cruz is that, no doubts there.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiAh. It's less crazy now? We can swat the dust off your Chief Seat?1 month 1 week ago
TaroGlad to be back Doc! Life has just been too crazy the last couple years to participate. Always been reading, always enjoy your stuff. :-)1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiTechnically Viciedo's XctX was .280'ish, not his xAVG … that's his hard-hit-ball rate times his contact rate. Also his xAVG and XctX is historically not bad, but it dipped as his found his power, then bounced back. I'm not recommending the guy!, but there are some similarities to Evan Gattis there, minus a notch of power. The M's have *always* liked Viciedo.1 month 1 week ago
TaroI expect him to hit .250/.310/.480 ish (mid to high 20s HRs), which will be somewhere around 1.5 WAR. He'll feel like David Ortiz compared to our DHs last year, but who knows when he starts aging. Don't like that contract. Preferred a dip into someone like Morse, who will be significantly cheaper and probably similar in value for 2015-2016. But it is what it is. Z had a man crush. He will be an upgrade, and now dipping into Melky makes more sense (and I think he is twice the player Cruz is from here on out).1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattAgreed that WAR is completely useless for DH. I never even bother to look for WAR there because the position adjustment is complete hokum1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattiiiinteresting, Jeff...why was his xAVG so high?1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiDr. D's micro shtick on Viciedo: follow @clarke_jeff If a spam fell in the woods, would anybody block it?1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiGlad Taro is back! :- ) So I hate to ping-pong vs. his "premium" shouts to start off with … but one return of serve is: Cruz was the *first* RH masher in. It's kinda like Seager's first $100M being worth more than his next $100M ...1 month 1 week ago
rjjuniorIMO, wRC+ is the only number that matters for full-time DH&#039;s. WAR is largely unhelpful due to many factors, including, but not limited to, the positional adjustment. If he puts up 120+, he&#039;s worth it.1 month 1 week ago
TaroYa, that will actually cost him a few runs switching to full time DH. I kind of feel that the DH penalty is too harsh, but even then I think overpaying Cruz so early was a bad tactical strategy. Buying high.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattCruz's previous WAR totals matter very little taro...they were all as an outfielder with significant negative defensive drag. He's a DH now.1 month 1 week ago
TaroOf the top 5 teams in HRs hit last year, only the Orioles made the playoffs. HRs definetlyhelp, but you need other forms of production. Last year was the first time in four years Cruz was worth more than 2 WAR. Hes a 34 year old bat that provides no production either than HRs off of a career year in a launchpad. I think he'll produce and compared to what we've had recently he'll look awesome. But I expect more of 2011-2013 regressed for Safeco than his 2014 line, which is pretty underwhelming for a bat only player. Hes an upgrade, but I think we significantly overpaid.1 month 1 week ago
benihanaI think that Cruz's value is specifically higher as league average scoring goes down. When locked into a pitchers duel a guy who can hit 40 home runs translates directly into increased wins. I think OBP is more valuable in a high scoring game, slugging more valuable in a low scoring game. With the lower scoring trend, a GUY like Nelson Cruz is a very impactful piece.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattagreed that Cruz by himself would be disappointing...strongly disagreed on Cruz's status as an impact hitter (he's been nothing if not reaso to think he's on the verge of collapsing). But I really want to get Cabrera in here and finish the offseason right.1 month 1 week ago
TaroI would have been fine with letting the Orioles win the bidding for Cruz. But now that we are invested and the 1st rounder is moot (and Saunders is out of town), I like the idea of targeting Melky. He was a tremendous hitter during his breakout years in 2011 and 2012. His 2013 was zapped due the tumor, but his 2014 was better than it looks on the surface. His BABIP was well below career norms based on batted ball outcomes in 2014. This is not even comparing to his BABIP outcomes in 2011-2012. Hes also been caught for PEDs in the past, which bodes well for his aging curve. A top spin hitter that hits the ball hard is a good fit for the park. I still don't get the Cruz signing (and don't think hes an impact player going forward), but adding Melky would make it sweeter and give us a pretty potent offense.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattcorrect, Rick...and Taro, Cruz is higher-impact than Cabrera as an addition for this specific team and they wanted to make sure they got him in first.1 month 1 week ago
rick82Probably because they feel they can go four years, Taro. With Cruz, they knew the Orioles would win the bidding war if they didn't add the additional year.1 month 1 week ago
TaroI still don't get giving into Cruz and playing hardball with Melky. Both are bat first, lead glove corner OFs. Cruz better recently, Melky better over the course of the last 4 years (minus injury riddled 2013). Melky is signficantly younger and his bat profiles better in Safeco. In five years Melky will be 35 years old. Cruz will turn 35 during the upcoming season. Why are you chiseling the extra year on the 30 year old when you didn't on the 34 year old? It makes no sense to me.1 month 1 week ago
drmNow that Lester has signed, I wonder if the free agent market will really start moving? Who else is interested in Melky? I haven't heard of any other team really interested? I'm worried we are being used again, ala Fielder.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI think Melky is being dumb though...he's not going to beat the Mariners AAV (14.5 mil per year) and he should want to try again after 4 years for another multiyear deal.1 month 1 week ago
drmYes, an option 5th year I could live with.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattalthough...despite my usual preference for not bidding against myself...I'd throw a vesting option for year five at him1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattThey are holding out on Melky because he has lower upside and they don't want to get locked in for too long to that1 month 1 week ago
TaroStills options out there that make sense if Melky is no longer on the table: Dealing for Souza with Taylor+RP.. and/or signing Aoki cheap.1 month 1 week ago
TaroI don't understand why the Ms are holding out on Melky if they gave into Cruz. Melky is more likely to age well. Once they gave that deal to Cruz, I assumed money was no longer an obstacle. If it was, you should explored your options more before signing Cruz and dealing Saunders.1 month 1 week ago
TaroViciedo has less than a season's worth of ABs vs lefties in his career so its not a reliable yet. In fact in 2014, he was better vs RHs. Overall he is a poor hitter and terrible fielder. I wouldn't even want him as a platoon bat since hes so awful defensively and his bat is terrible fit for the park. Just overall, hate the idea of him on the roster. Its an absolute joke if hes the starter, but even as a bench bat I really, really hate the idea.1 month 1 week ago
TaroHi Moe, I don't dislike the idea of going with a platoon in RF. Theres some merit to going that direction. But I really, really dislike the idea Viciedo in particular.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogBeni: By George, I think you've got it (perhaps)! I should have thought of Miller as a vR RF option and a consideration in the Saunders trade. Interesting. Taro: Viciedo beats lefties up. He certainly can hit them. On the other hand, Matt, Miller (maybe) and Viciedo gives you at least 90% of Saunders. Rasmus and Viciedo is 110% of Saunders, equal to Saunders and Viciedo. Jay, as a top of the order guy and CF heir-apparent, would be even better (if you could afford the Cards' asking price). I disliked the Saunders trade as much as anybody. He was nice...but fragile and not THAT nice. He's replaceable.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossYep. Cargo's got three years left on his deal (3yrs/53 mill), and I like him for that. If Colorado is kicking in a few million we can spare them some secondary pieces, but I'm guessing they don't want to cough up the cash and would rather ride with Cargo assuming he'll recover. To overcome that inertia, I'm not sure what we'd have to trade them.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattIf we can't get a reasonable pruchase price for Upton, I would prefer Cargo, yes. Rasmus is the emergency desperation move.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossMatt, I think Carlos Gonzalez or Colby Rasmus are the fall-back positions if Melky won't sign and the other trades are all asking for the golden calf along with a lifetime subscription to Popular Mechanics. Problem with Cargo: he's not likely to be traded for less than his healthy value, but nobody's really sure what that is.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattIOW...if we trade for Viciedo...he's a full-time starter. He's not Miller's caddy.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattit would have been easier to sign Jonny Gomes Not that would happy with that either.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattYou don't trade material goods for a platoon 200 AB RFer who can't field (Viciedo). They won't give him away for nothing. Trading for a platoon buddy is stupid.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI gotta believe something gets done during the WMs or just after.1 month 1 week ago
drmWell, I wish this would hurry up and finish, one way or the other. The waiting is killing me!1 month 1 week ago
benihanaI'm beginning to think that 'natural' outfielder Brad Miller beat out Michael Saunders for a job. Trade makes more sense when you think of Saunders as the M's "left-out"-fielder.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattif they trade for Viciedo, the Saunders deal becomes manifestly retarded. Like...a person with an 80 IQ would understand it was bad. I love Happ, but you can get 90% of what I think Happ will do by just re-signing Chris Young or going after Masterson gets you 100% at slightly more money. And if my choice is Viciedo and Happ (minus whatever we gave up for Viciedo) or Saunders and a bad RH platoon buddy and a free agent starter who costs too much or is risky...I go for the latter every single time.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattindeed Gordon. Still plenty of trade targets available. Sounds like the Braves want too much for Gattis...but may be swayed on Upton with the right finagling. Kemp is off the table for us, but there is also Carlos Gonzalez and possibly Troy Tulowitzki (longshot)...there could be Jay Bruce or John Jay or Colby's not like it's Melkman or bust. Melkman is just my preferred target.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossBeing willing to move on, and actually moving on, are different things. Being willing is good - we've been caught in years past waiting and waiting... and waiting... for a free agent to make up their mind / to use our offers to get the deal they really want with a different team. Can't get stuck in that spot this time. And if he doesn't want to come here for the price we'll pay there's not a lot we can do except TO move on.1 month 1 week ago
TaroIf the Ms can't find a real RF solution, the Saunders deal starts looking terrible again.1 month 1 week ago
TaroViciedo can't hit or field. Of course he can occasionally hit a HR, which apparently is all you need for Z to be interested in you.1 month 1 week ago
drmYou think they are still in on Melky? I'm getting worried that the M's have moved on.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossSomebody should explain to Melky that he's more likely to get another multi-year contract to end his career if he goes 4 years now instead of 5. It's both good business sense for him (assuming he believes he doesn't have to roid to stay productive for the next 4 years) and for us to go 4.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogIf you look at Viciedo as 1/2 of a RF solution then he's a good guy to have. An Earl W. type of guy. I liked him in this role last year. The Tank has his lefties to the tune of .291-.331-.507 over his career. That ain't chopped liver! It compares decently to Gattis but trails Upton. Cruz is, btw, .289-.364-.522. Tank has played some LF as well as RF, 1B, too. At somewhere around $4M per he's cheap. ERam in swap, perhaps? That idea has been tossed about elsewhere.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogIdeally Viciedo would RF platoon against lefties and give LoMo some days off at 1B. But it would mean we must get another RF (preferably a LHB) who can play CF, too. Then you're looking at Rasmus, etc. I like the effort to get Melky to 4 years and it likely means there isn't a huge Melky market out there, at 5 years anyway. But I wouldn't kick at Viciedo, who is a complementary player and brings a skill set the M's most sorely missed last year. He would be easy to move and he wouldn't block Kivlehan and Pizzano, COFs who will show up soon enough. AS part one of a two-part OF move, I have no problem with this.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiBigMtnMonkey - sent it all along to the admins. Trust me, we feel your pain1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiCan't say I'd blame the M's for digging in, as far as Melky Cabrera and the 2019 season. And (Kemp, Upton, Cruz, etc) they're getting a rep for being both forwardgoing, and principled. Real nice blend, as Jay-Z would put it.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiM's pressuring Melky, in the newspapers, to forgo the 5th year … using Dayan Viciedo as the foam rubber baseball bat … Viciedo is not AS lame as he looks, is somewhat comparable to a RH Logan Morrison (age 26 with serious UPside) but by all accounts is You-Glee in the outfield. Fairly light foam rubber it sez here.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiKlat is establishing the new platform. By a delightful coinkydink, so is Dr. D personally, with modem brownouts, Twitter radiation and general loss of all perspective. Hospital time warps are being served alongside the Drs' beside-yourself zaniness. Anybody riding it out is likely to contract a case of our Sensible Insanity.1 month 1 week ago
Tacoma RainLester is now a Cub... Go Theo!!!1 month 1 week ago
moethedogRe Trumbo: Tongue-in-cheek, I hope Matt. Tongue-in-cheek...... And the Yankees are liberal spenders.......the Mariners are (or have been) conservative ones. Call it what you will, it amounts to the same thing.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiNew Roenis Elias article at Next coupla articles will be here at SSI. Notably one on Seager's remaining UP side1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattfrom the "thank goodness that didn't happen" files - Seattle was evidently on the verge of flipping Saunders to the Jays for Mark Trumbo if the Jays could work out the details on getting Trumbo...the if part didn't happen...WOW am I glad we got Happ instead...MUCH rather have Happ1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattThe Mariners, BTW, are not "conservative" - they are profit-obsessed. There's a difference. They have no problem spending all the money that they feel they can spend in order not to go into the red.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattthat's an inaccurate way to phrase the comparison, moe. Fowler will cost about 5 million less than Melky in year one and then be gone. So...$54 million over four years (about 14.5 mil per year) for Melky or...9 million and then a gigantic hole in your line-up.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogAgree with Miller: I've been in on his OF use, especially considering Taylor's proclivity at all levels to get on base. But Miller in the OF likely is a 4th OF situation or it means Ackley is moving on. I'm not seeing us with 2 LHB COFs. Saunders went because we chose Ackley over him. I would have no problem with Miller getting a RF shot in the event that Ackley is gone in trade for a RHB. Romero is hardly a "non-prospect." In his 185 AAA/AAA games he's hit north of .300 AND ISO'ed about .220. His first MLB rodeo wasn't pretty....but to label him a non-prospect is too harsh. If he's with the M's he will bat in the majors in '15 and it won't be a failure. I appreciate the TV revenue $, beni, really. But you're talking about a massive business entity here and conservative FO types. It you're talking about $60M = 5 more wins over 4 years, well....that's something that a conservative FO might not jump in on.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattwell done, Beni. Well done. The days of hoping and praying that marginal non-prospects like Romero hit their 80th percentile projection and are sort of useful in a platoon role or whatever the heck or OVER. This team should spend like a drunken sailor in odl St. John (where all the girls are dancin') - heave away, good ship Mariner. Buy the best player you can. To heck with bargain hunting.1 month 1 week ago
benihanaAnd lastly, I think the M's think that they already have a 3 WAR left-handed hitting RF. Just happens that his name is Brad Miller.1 month 1 week ago
benihanaOver the past 3 non-TUMOR-IN-HIS-BACK years, Melky has been worth almost 5 more wins than Fowler. And he can be had without giving any talent up.1 month 1 week ago
BigMtnMonkey2) At this point I appear to be logged in only within the article “Run on Offense.” When I tried, without logging out within the article, to log in on both the main page and within several articles I get the following error message: “Request unsuccessful: error.” I logged out within the article – the only place where it appears that I was logged in – and then logged in on the main page. I was brought to what I’m going to call the “My Account” page, as that is one of the two tabs at the top right of the page &amp; the rest of the page consists of a link to my articles – none –, my “feed” &amp; shoutbox. Clicking on the link to the main page results in my still being listed as logged out &amp; I get the same “Request unsuccessful: error” when I try to log in. I think that I’m done messing about with this for now. Hope that this mess means something to someone!1 month 1 week ago
BigMtnMonkeyRandom Site Notes: 1) For the past several days I&#039;ve been puzzled by a mismatch between the number of comments listed for each article on the home page &amp; the number (usually zero) I found when actually viewing the article. I realized that I wasn’t logged in &amp; did so within the “Run on Offense.” The page immediately reloaded with all six comments.1 month 1 week ago
BigMtnMonkeyTest1 month 1 week ago
benihanaOne interesting side-effect of the M's owning their own network (same with the YES Yankees for that matter) is that they have an increasingly vested interest in viewers. Their ownership in the network means more viewers instantly transfers into increased revenue - don't have to wait until the next round of negotiations. And since more wins = more viewers, it's time for them to stop acting cheap. Good news is, they don't seem to be acting cheap anymore.1 month 1 week ago
benihanaMoe, I think you are a bit stuck in the old M's paradigm. With last years $25 million per year increase in national TV revenues, plus Baker's conservatively reported $25 million in increased local TV revenues, this M's SHOULD be running a $140 million payroll and as I pointed out earlier, they're acting like it too. Time to stop shopping at the bargain bin and learn to love the Free Agent market. Sign the best bat we can get to play RF for next year, and worry about the rest after a nice post-season run.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI'd give Rasmus a 3/27 or 3/30 kind of deal. That would be an "OK" add...but he has a giant hole so another right handed bat would need to be brought in to platoon with him. It's not ideal if we keep Ackley because both of them need platooning and we can't really do that.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattIf Romero gets even 1 at bat in 2015, the Mariners failed.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogI would still do a Gattis swap (who I like a lot), starting with Ackley and going young from there. Were I to make that up Ackley, I would look at Rasmus as a RF addition. I think he's flying under folks radar, $-wise. He can play CF (and we need another) and he's a career .788 guy vs. RHP. You could platoon him in RF with a Romero or cheap addition (if you're giving Kivlehan lots of Tacoma). I predicate that on our losing Ackley in the addition of a RF bat. I like Rasmus more than Fowler, anybody in Colo. and (CF bonus) Melky, for the right price. not much out there about him. how much is he worth Matt?1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattMariners haven't been talking to the Braves recently either...I hope we don't get NONE of those guys...because if we end up with something less than a bankable 3 WAR, then the Michael Saunders trade becomes stupid again.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattFowler is a lousy fielder and streaky at the plate...and a bad fit for Safeco. And I'm not banking our chances in 2015/2016 on anyone unproven. This is the time to win now...get high stoploss even if you pay a premium for it.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattPadres in on him because Friedma want's to have Yasmani Grandal's babies. He is irrationally attached to the guy for some reason.1 month 1 week ago
MtGrizzly@JonHeymanCBS: hear orioles, rangers and mariners, 3 early kemp players, are all out on him. seems like might be padres or bust.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogFowler is a one year guy with a .340 career OBP away from home (trying not to cherry pick). .375 for the year in Houston last year (still not trying to cherry pick Coors) He gives us two draws at the CF market after this year. He would be a fine glove in RF. With Souza comes a terrific pitching arm, in my scenario. Craig was OK in RF with St. Louis. I admit, he's not been a fulltime RF'er. Gonzales is one of the OFs I would like. Let's not pretend that $57M for Melky is chump isn't. It's impact will be felt down the line. I am not convinced that we've seen a sea change in the M's FO's willingness to perpetually spend this kind of dough.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogI would rather spend that Melky money on something else down the line. Kuma, for example...or a pitcher to replace him. I'm convinced that Kivlehan would be a 100 OPS guy in RF starting June 1st. If that is the case, then for $57 million you're getting not much of an improvement. Matt, as I've said, Melky is no slouch. But at 4x$15M he's steep, too. The analysis is not whether Melky is a fine player...but whether he's worth to the M's the $ it would take.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattColorado has only one OFer in whom I have any interest. Gonzalez. Blackmon is a joke outside of Coors. As is Dickerson. Craig is worth very little to me and cannot play the outfield so why the heck would I want him? Fowler is awful for the money he'll cost. Souza is fragile and not something that can start every day. None of the things on your list make me feel confident in this team moving forward. None of them.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogI'm out on Melky. He's off my Christmas list. There are other OF's who I would explore and chase. Colorado has two and Fowler is still available in Houston. Allen Craig will hit .300 again this year. But mostly I think I would chase a pitcher AND Souza from the Nats. They are dangling Fister and Zimmerman. For one of those two guys (with a year's extension...which you could probably do at $15-$18M) and Souza I would give up Walker or Elias and a prospect. We need a guy sho can play OF AND 1B, by the way. Souza does that. I'm not doing it for just one year of one of those pitchers...but I would do it for two.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattIt's like he tried to win by goig failed spectacularly so he said "I'm better at winning by going small...let's do that again"1 month 1 week ago
TaroGuessing they keep Gentry+Jaso then? I have no idea what Beane is doing but it is fascinating to watch.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattAs say they're now looking to add a couple of pieces and will not trade Kazmir. I do not understand Beane's approach this year. Butler is an albatross contract before he event takes the field...they traded their best players for bulk they want to play add-on? WHY? What are they trying to accomplish?1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattIndeed...some of the guys they got are...interesting...but none of them are exciting. They're classic orcs. But yes...they are obviously in reload mode so they will not be scary in 2015. That leaves us battling the top-heavy Angels and clubs like the Chisox, Blue Jays, Orioles and Indians1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossTheir farm system would be less depleted if they hadn't traded Addison Russell. Just sayin - not that i'm unhappy about getting that kid into the NL. The up-n-comers right now look like us, Toronto, probably the White Sox, the 'Stros soon... I'm glad the As seem to be taking a breather, but I try not to count them out. "Nothing pieces" seem to be what Oakland builds contenders out of.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattthe As' farm system was badly depleted, so all of their moves of late have been to get guys who are many as possible. So that they have time to regenerate their farm system. Choi and their choice of our marginal AA/AAA prospects for Jason/Gentry...someone call Zduriencik1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattBloomquist is useful too...just not as a baseball player. :) He's the extra man that has the manager's back, polices the bench, and doesn't mind only playing when Seager needs an off-day.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossChoi is such an As kind of player. Marte isn't, but he is talented. If we're cherrypicking low-hanging fruit to fill our bench for a couple years then yes, Gentry and Jaso would be very good for us.1 month 1 week ago
TaroYa, it makes a ton of sense. Pretty ideal backup crew either than Bloomquist. The As seem to be dealing their players for quantity instead of quality. I wonder if we could deal 2-3 non top-10 specs for those two? Both are great fits for our roster.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattJaso is your back-up catcher and handy extra bench bat for RH Relievers (subbing in for Morrison). Gentry is your 4th OF/def replacement/pinch runner starting against tough lefties for Ackley. You run with a bench of Jaso, Gentry Bloomquist and Taylor1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI'd give the As Ketel Marte and Ji-Man Choi for Gentry and Jaso, maybe1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattPresumably, we'd use Gentry instead of would the outfield align on those days? Would you play Gentry in RF and Cabrera in LF?1 month 1 week ago
TaroGentry is like a cross with James Jones speed (late SBs with crazy accuracy), Gut's defense (at every OF spot), and an actual bat vs LHs. Such an extreme skill set. Worth around 8 WAR since 2012 in part time play. Best 4th OF in the game IMO.1 month 1 week ago
TaroTrue, but Crisp is 35 at this point and the contract is higher than his worth IMO. Gentry may be the best RH platoon/4th OF in the game. He a RH bat with extreme career splits and one of the best defensive CFs in the game. Very nice piece to start vs LHs, and a late pinch runner/defensive replacement.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattAh...he did slump in the last two months. Not sure I would characterize him as bad. We looking for someone who, when in the line-up, would be a better lead-off option than Jackson1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattUm...Crisp is bad? Last I checked he was one of their better hitters in 2014. And good on the bases1 month 1 week ago
TaroGentry is pretty great fit, especially if the Melky rumors are true. We're going to need a defense first 4th OF and Gentry is one of the best defensive players in the game. Definetly would not give up Taylor for him, but maybe a non top-10 spare prospect.1 month 1 week ago
TaroCrisp is a negative asset at this point with the contract hes signed too. Hes old and bad.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattWould they do Crisp for Taylor?1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattforget that...ask what they want for Coco Crisp1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossBaker should have just read my report on the TV money months ago, and the fact that we should have that to spend this offseason. The suits are not against spending money, they are against spending THEIR money. Whatever the team makes, the team can use for payroll purposes. If ticket sales go back up, they'll put that in the budget too.1 month 1 week ago
TaroMs should ring up the As about Gentry and Jaso.1 month 1 week ago
SilentpadnaWow....seems like every time I log in here I'm a time-traveller, going back and forth between days.....1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattThis is a very incoherent offseason for Beane. Why did he sign Butler if he was just going to dismantle the As?1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattBassitt is pretty interesting, and Marcus Semien is underrated. But hardly an overwhelming return.1 month 1 week ago
Tacoma RainOrc's trade Shark to the White Sox for prospects... and possibly only one really good one.1 month 1 week ago
misterjonezI also like that the team is addressing chemistry. The Seahawks are definitely showing the way there, and it's nice to see it come into play. Obviously in baseball talent trumps all, but all things equalxI like the emphasis on cohesion.1 month 1 week ago
rick82Guti can have Endy's job. He's be pretty good at it - from the right side, anyway. Good with the bat, the glove, trade bunting for power. I like it.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattBut Guti would never be a starter here...not the way Saunders was drummed out of town for being non-durable...Guti is not the replacement. He's extra1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattGuti is probably going to come back one more time as a minor leaguer with an NRI to ST to see how he feels.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattthe spending we're doing this year is consistent with that plan to spend about 140 mil or so - they started the upward trend last year by signing Cano to set the stage...and it worked out realy well...made us contenders just enough to convince Cruz and maybe Cabrera to join us1 month 1 week ago
bsrBaker finally with the report confirming how much the M's new TV deal is worth: +$25M/year vs prior deal. And it didn't really kick in financially until now, which is why they didn't bump payroll as much in 2014. Bottom line, the M's will consistently have $40-50M extra to spend going forward from local and national TV money. So payroll should be in the $130M+ range that real contenders spend. Best M's news I've read in years! []1 month 1 week ago
rick82Z has a soft spot in his heart for Guti. He won't resist signing him.1 month 1 week ago
merksI would like to have Gutierrez back on a minor league deal as long as we have a starting caliber cf to begin with, which we do. If both are healthy Guti was the better player in my mind. I have no idea if he'll be able to stay healthy but worth a go.1 month 1 week ago
rick82Or is THIS the M's secret plan: The return of Franklin Gutierrez to play RF, and maybe a little CF. Guti hit a home run in Winter ball today: month 1 week ago
JDDubWith all the talk about Melky in RF batting second with his great bat control it feels like were getting setup to have the rug pulled out from under us. The Raul reunion tour was a success, so perhaps M's brass will press their luck with the return of Ichiro!1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossI also like that we're big on chemistry. Cano and Seager are peas in a pod. Cruz, Melky and Cano are all countrymen and close friends. I'm not huge on Melky, but can I really gripe about bringing in a 3 WAR player who is still young enough to have several good years ahead of him and is surrounded by friends who can make every day a good one? If there was such a thing as chemistry and synergy, it looks like the Ms are banking on making it work in their favor. There are worse things to mix than talent and comraderie.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossSo apparently we're the favorites to sign Melky still, even as we work on J-Up or Kempster. Funny line from Heyman's article: "The Blue Jays are out, and the Mariners took care if that, by sending them Michael Saunders in trade to fill left field. The Royals, White Sox, Giants and others have been tied to Cabrera, but Seattle seems like the team to beat." Jack used a player we were not going to keep to shift the winds of change his way and bring Melky in? GMs might be thinking more than one move ahead? Nahhh... not possible...1 month 1 week ago
mojicianI want 2-3 years at Billy Butler money too. $30 million bucks would be pretty darn useful.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattMorales wants Butler money...Boras has completely lost his blinkin' mind.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattbasically...Seattle's strategy this off-season is "SIGN ALL THE BATZ!!!"1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattLOL benihana...that is awesome1 month 1 week ago
benihanaHow fun has this off-season been? Fangraphs top 55 FA's? #1,2,4 Sherzer, Lester, Shields - not fits. #3) Hanley - reports are the M's pursued hard. #5) Panda - 3B not a fit, #6) Russel Martin - M's reported runner-up. #7) Headley - see #5. #8) Melky - M's rumored front-runner. #9) V-Mart - M's reported runner-up. #10) Nelson Cruz - now an M. We are in on EVERY good non-3b hitter. We've come a long, long way from the scrap heap.1 month 1 week ago
rick82From the Yesterday's News Today Department, someone didn't get the memo that his player really sucks, almost as bad as his previous work in representing him: month 1 week ago
rick82And we have a song all ready for him: "Sonny Gray, keeping the clouds away" - sing to the tune from either Sesame Street or Jars of Clay, your choice.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianFor five years of Sonny Gray, we'd have to get over Elias and Taylor. Who ever heard of a man child with perfect control of a filthy curve ball and a live and accurate fastball to complement it? Well, there was this one guy named Felix, but besides him, I can't think of anyone. Plus, could you imagine how Gray in Seattle would make Oakland fans feel? They'd have to see him at least 10 times per year. Plus, it is Gray's rightful destiny to pitch in Seattle. I thought Mariners scouts had dibs on all college players from Appalachia. How did Macnamara lose this guy anyway? Edited to add: Dan Hultzen may be mighty fine yet. There were lots of great pitchers in the 2011 draft. 1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattAs for Houston...their ballclub is definitely in position to be a problem in 2016 at the latest. But 2015 is a two-team race between Seattle and LAA.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattLOL...I'd give Oakland Taylor and Elias for Gray. Thoughts?1 month 1 week ago
rick82I feel like I'm watching a Tolkien inspired movie. We spend three episodes on a journey to defeat some great evil somewhere, only to find out - yeah, Orcs are nasty, brutish, but short, and there's a greater evil somewhere else we have to spend three more episodes to fight.1 month 1 week ago
mojician"We wanted the Padres" almost knocked me out of my chair. :) Since the Orcs are open for business, I wonder who they want for Sonny Gray? I hear Guerrero is pretty good.1 month 1 week ago
rick82Mojican, I think we will be duking it out with the Stros going forward. Could be quite a rivalry. I mean, I hate them already, the way a Husky hates a Coug, because we should stomp on them repeatedly, and often do, then they go an win games we need against us. Stupid cockroach Lastros. Go back to the NL. We wanted the Padres.1 month 1 week ago
rick82We could have given the Orcs Ty Kelly for Moss, and thrown in a pitcher or something.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianThe Orcs traded three years of AL slugger Brandon Moss for six years of one blue chip prospect who is still trying to figure out AA? Conspiracy theory: I think that the real Beane is watching helplessly on a holotron from deep space, while an alien in a Beanesuit trashes his ball club. The aliens are either running psychological experiments on the effects of baseball on humans, or they just hate the Orcs as much as we do.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianNeed another alarming Fourthstro fact? They are growing better at an exponential rate, and they haven't spent any money yet. The Houston payroll is at $ 44 million. Jim Crane's bank account is at $2 billion. Who says he's not going to sign Lester, Scherzer and Shields just because he wants to?1 month 1 week ago
mojicianWho's afraid of the big bad 'Stros? -238 Run Differential in 2013, -108 2014. They out-Beaned Beane, getting Chris Carter out of Oakland for two years of Jed Lowrie, they poached Nolan Ryan out of Texas and are a big part of the curse of the sandbox, they shed the title "Lastros", they got an actual pitching staff with McHugh, Keuchel and Peacock, they have a real MOTO, with Fowler, Altuve, Carter and Springer, they have a rich owner, a smart front office, a rich pool of prospects, and are about to become the Thirdstros after the Oakland Yard sale of 2014.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI don't think this can afford to carry 2 DHs. Or 3 1B/DHs. Because we will want to carry 8 relievers.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogDoc: In regards to you platoon post (because I can't post there)...As pointed out, that sort of platoon works if you pick carefully. Lowenstein was a career .260-.346-.418 guy vR. Roenicke was a career .255-.363-.454 guy vL (and his vR career OPS was .749 so he was a "perfect" 4th OF). Those guys were unlikely to crash every other year. Earl was a genius that way. Lind and Mayberry are pretty proven commodities, especially Lind. And even in his "lost" years ('12-'13) Mayberry his lefties well. Two guys like that would also give you a 3 to make 2 1B/DH situation, adding LoMo. However, that in and of itself is pretty limiting, flexibility wise.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogSuch a platoon works best in the OF, at the corners...because you need the 4th OF anyway and it gives you a 2nd DH. In 79, for example, Baltimore had a 155 OPS RF (Singleton) and one of the best CF gloves in history (Bumbry..who wasn't a bad bat). Roenicke and Lowenstein were the perfect LF platoon, bat and flexibility wise. (same set up in '80, BTW...first year of the DH.) The hard part isn't finding the bats...but finding the bats that actually increase your flexibility.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattSo...their line-up is now CF) Crisp 3B) Lawrie LF) Reddick DH) Butler C) Norris 1B) Davis/Freiman LF) Vogt SS) Punto 2B) Sogard - is ANYONE scared of that?1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattOakland sure seems desperate to blow up its offense.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattso....would you rather have Happ for 6.7 mil...or Hammel for 2X10. :)1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiTR: that's some funny stuff amigo :- )1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiSee below1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattLOL - not happening to me yet...they're just cobbling things together at the moment until they get everything to a better server...bear with them, I'm sure Doc would say. :)1 month 1 week ago
moethedogSSI has some weird stuff happening to it. I can't post on the shouts from the main SSI page...but if I click on a thread I can Shout but I have no idea if new threads are up. Sigh...1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI don't think Cabrera is the best available option by any stretch of the imagination. I think he will help us in 2015 and us in a crucial way. I'm willing to pay a price at the end to get that if Kemp and Upton can't be had at a reasonable price. Especially since we will have cheap options by 2017...Jackson, Kivlehan etc1 month 1 week ago
moethedogLet me restate: Not a 4%$M Melky fan. Not at all.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogI'm in with jonez: Not a Melky fan. Not at all! I'm hoping this rumor one is all hot air.1 month 1 week ago
misterjonezI see the rationale for signing him, and you make the case well, Matt. I've just never liked him; he's like Randy Winn without the speed or defense. I agree that, if he duplicated his 2014 for the next two years, it would sure solidify the lineup.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI would agree that Cabrera is unlikely to have much upside and that in years 3 and 4, he's probably not going to be worth what we pay him due to lagging defense. Don't really care though. I love him in the 2 hole right now for hard at bats against good pitching to get the pressure on guys before Cano comes up and the money we're spending on him is unlikely to prevent us from spending hte future as the club bloats payroll.1 month 1 week ago
misterjonezI'm prepared to eat crow, but I'm not enthused about Melky whatsoever. He doesn't have any stand-out tools, his defense is deteriorating, and he's been wildly inconsistent (I understand some of that is due to injuries, but he still doesn't give me warm fuzzies). He'd be a good add if Upton or Kemp really do cost Paxton/Walker plus, since he's really only a 2nd round draft pick loss, but I really do see a 4/54 contract to Cabrera being an albatross while I don't see that with Cruz. One has a high-powered core skill to lean on while the other doesn't. I dunno...Cabrera would be alright, but I'm convinced we'll look back on that one like we look back on Carlos Silva. There's my curmudgeonly thought for the day. Still, we need a COF (at least one!) and he's available.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI'd like to see us get a fourth outfielder who can spell ackley against isn't crucial1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossYep - we have two offers on the table, one in trade and one to a FA, and first guy to take the offer wins the prize. The other guy can go hope to do as well later, but probably won't. I'm fiiiine with that tactic. And fine with a victory lap. You can't win anything in the offseason, but knowing what we needed this coming year we couldn't have prepared to win in 2015 much better than if that happens.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattIf we do get it victory lap time for the brass? Do they go to the winter meetings just to hang out by the pool? :)1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattSo basically...the Mariners are now on the phone with Friedman saying "look, dude, you've been jerking me around all week on Kemp...I made a good offer and you almost took it, then you came back and inserted our best prospects instead. Either take our offer or we're signing Cabrera"1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossThe Ms are keeping the pressure on Melky by making sure he knows they could always just make a trade and leave him hanging - but also that he's their first choice for the role and they're paying him a quality salary. They don't feel like they have to go 5 on Melky, unlike the 4th year on Cruz, but are probably among his biggest offers for 4 years. Love to see em lock it down but glad they're not sitting on their hands while they wait for him to accept or just play us out like other teams have in the past by taking our offer to their "preferred" team. Gettin' close...1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossSome dude named Joe Rossman reported 4/54. Other reporters aren't saying that isn't the framework, just that the Ms aren't locked up with Melky yet (he's probably shopping it while the Ms do their last second dilligence). Joel Sherman: Multi execs tell me #Mariners strong frontrunner for Melky. But Sea GM Jack Z says, “that is way premature” Still looking at JUpton Kemp...1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattwhere'd you see that?? MLBTR doesn't have anything1 month 1 week ago
benihanaThat may be an old and wrong tweet. But still. Would love it.1 month 1 week ago
benihanaMelky!!! $54 for 4!!!! Love it!!!1 month 1 week ago
rick82Saunders used to be awful in all situations :-)1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattLOL1 month 1 week ago
Tacoma RainOhhh ... now I got it month 1 week ago
SABR MattSaunders used to be awful in clutch situations but since he started centering his swing on the SS instead of the 1B, he's much more able to handle those battles.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattno @ symbol...all dots.1 month 1 week ago
rick82Clutchiness - It's the #1 reason I dreaded losing the Condor: 1.052 OPS in late and close last season. He was clutch the year before as well - always in the middle of any Mariner rally - and often the guy to get it started.1 month 1 week ago
Tacoma RainSo ... Not ... do I have that right now?1 month 1 week ago
SABR - head on over Tacoma...we've had many good discussions. :)1 month 1 week ago
Tacoma is that right Matt? Is there more schtick there? 'Cuz I really need more SCHTICK!!!1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattLOL...sorry doc. I had assumed that everyone here was now well aware off :-)1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiWe live to serve. But you obviously do not, as you failed to note the URL of the 'other blog.' Klat doesn't mind in the least if non-authors shill others' (unintentional) comedy routines. Consider me alienated. Maybe I'll only put up six posts Monday, just to spite you.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattthat's a Byte for the other blog Doc.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattWow! I hadn't realized how "clutchy" Seager was. Maybe we should just call him the team captain and be done with.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiIf you go to Fangraphs > Batters > Leaders 2012-14 > Win Probability > sort by Clutch … observe Kyle Seager's position on the list. Both leagues.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattKing Felix is Tony Stark1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattHulk is CLEARLY Cruz1 month 1 week ago
Tacoma RainHopefully DJ or Kivlehan1 month 1 week ago
mojicianHeh. That about sums it up. Who is Hulk?1 month 1 week ago
Tacoma RainMy boys and their friends call Seager "Seattle's Captain America"1 month 1 week ago
mojicianYeah, Seager doesn't get his 50 something extra base hits on meatball day when the sun is shining, he had a good breakfast and the team is happy. That's not why he's worth $100 million.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI've been calling Seager K-Money since 20111 month 1 week ago
SABR MattEVERYONE says "that player is MONEY...they mean he is more valuable than his numbers because he is clutch...K means strike out, so that's a problem, but K-Money sounds cool to say.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianI suppose we can't call Seager S-Money because nicknames should last, and he won't be the only Seager in the bigs for very much longer. K-Money. Hmmmmm. It grows on you.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianHow is money clutch? Well, it is the most liquid asset, the easiest to spend or negotiate when there is a present need for it. It is better to have in an emergency than other valuable assets, like goodwill. Money is also clutch because clutch behavior is highly valued and should be paid.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiFresh shtick up at . … Dr. D, like Taro, had not heard that (anagram) "Ape Ugly I Is" could be had in trade. Knowing Friedman, more likely we'd get "A Retired Hen / Trade In Here" for J.A. Happ. Somebody disagree (with basis) and we'll be happy to slap up a POTD in many, many, MANY chapters.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianIt's hard to call Seager K-Money because of the negative connotations associated with K. But, money is appropriate as it is highly correlated with clutchness, which Seager exemplifies.1 month 1 week ago
TaroPuig isn't that bad defensively. Great arm, makes some bad reads, but good footspeed. I actually think he has upside defensively a RF, and snagged a 5 WAR season despite it. GREAT hitter in a pitchers' park. Hes only 23. I think he gets even better. Hes signed for 4 years and 24 million, making him one of the most valuable pieces in the game. I'd do Walker+DJ+Jackson, but the Dodgers may prefer Walker+DJ+Taylor, which works for me as well. If he truly is available, NAB him. Don't chisel.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiTR … Brandon League? YEAH BABY! … actually Lloyd would probably find the exact AB's that would have SrFrBoi29 worth $8M per again.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiSABRMatt 'Scoop? :- )1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattGive them Taijuan Walker, Chris Taylor and Yoervis Medina for Puig and Wilson? We don't need that extra reliever really.1 month 1 week ago
Tacoma RainTrade for Puig? GREAT! However, instead of adding lots of minor league talent, M's should offer to take one of their bad contracts they have - like Wilson or Haren or even League. All of these are one year deals so it would not bankrupt the M's to do so.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattDoc...there are a lot of things I have WANTED to say about ongoing discussions based on my time with the I move further from that time of employment, I am a bit more free to say some things...I just can't speak for guys who still have high level jobs. But yes...I think a big part of my sub-domain within D-O-V, along with "MLB History Today" might be another feature type "Inside Scoop" or something with comments about how someone in a top end front office might react based on my admittedly brief experience.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI'd get Puig with the plan of making him my first baseman after 2016.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattPuig is one of the worst defensive outfielders in major league baseball, Taro. He's not without serious problems (not to mention, he's got a bad attitude). And I wouldn't give up Jackson (the younger) for Giancarlo Stanton, let alone Puig. Jackson is a bust-out star in the making IMHO (and in the opinions of a lot of scouts lately). I would, however, give the Dodgers Walker and DJ and a reliever for Puig.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiSure. But your insight into how insiders think is precisely what interests us (me). There's probably way to phrase things such as "a GM would be more likely to value Cruz' 'clutchiness' than his lead analyst would. And my view is … "1 month 1 week ago
TaroPuig seriously? I'd do Walker + DJ + Jackson for Puig. 4 bargain years left. Elite player in his early 20s? If hes available that changes the game.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattMy time with the Yankees was nothing particularly special, other than the view it gave me of how they think. General answer: how the bosses think is very different than how the analysts think...and I could describe both sides...I just don't want to be unemployable in the game by saying something that clubs would look down on as leaking sensitive info1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiAlso Matt: any time you go "the Yankees found this useful" you've got everybody riveted. :: golf clap :: In fact, if I were you I'd underline that angle for my "subdomain" at DOV … "this would have been of interest inside baseball." You've been inordinately modest about it :- ) actually not letting people know ENOUGH. … but I get that you don't want to Mike Gimbel yourself. It could be done subtly but with impact … not that Dr. D would know about subtle ...1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattThis crowd may not remember the past, but I think they like llearning about the game's history if you relate it to what they do know at least somewhat. Not sure though...but I certainly like making little history projects out of my statistical research1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiSABRMatt … I'm all over that stuff, especially because I enjoy comparing my 1970's and 1980's heroes to today. Have never understood whether today's generation has much interest in that, however, so I minimize the "Melky Cabrera to Ken Griffey Sr." comps in order to find comps the kiddies will relate to. Would love to find out that 80% of the audience enjoys Melky vs. Sr, though.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiCaffeine: thanks so much. Grist for the mill, as far as the final decision about going ahead with New D-O-V. :: daps ::1 month 1 week ago
merksThere are two separate articles on suggesting that the Dodgers could trade Puig this offseason. One of the articles says that Joc Pederson is also a possibility. Dodgers want pitching and middle infielders. Seems like we match up with them pretty well. Any thoughts on what it would take to get Puig? Would you want Puig?1 month 1 week ago
SABR in our line-up so far, the nicknames are: CF) AJAX 2B) Robbie DH) Boomstick 3B) K-Money (dang it...I'm going to make that stick!!) 1B) SoDo LoMo C) ZUUUUUMBALL LF) Eggs, Ack, or Beardly SS) Logo, Miller-time, or crazy-legs...this is sounding like a world champion more and more...but we'll need to add the Melkman to the list.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianThree of the greatest thinkers in sports approve of the Cruz signing. #LOB #Boomstick1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattOne of the tools I was working on when I was last in the "game" in research was a rigorous skills-based player comparison the idea would be...someone throws me a request, I let the comparison tool (once honed) pick out some other players from different time periods that were most similar skill-to-skill and talk about their place in the great history of the a way for us to think about the players of today and what role they might have in history fifty years from now.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattSo I've been thinking about an idea lately...I was wondering if the faithful here would be interested in a running series entitled "MLB History Today" wherein I take requests to look at contemporary players and draw parallels statistically and historically to players from the past and/or requests to look at historic players and compare them to players from today to give a sense of perspective on those histories? This idea has come and gone in my head for some time now, usually when watching a classic game on the MLB network (classic games are one of my favorite things...they're like a little time capsule where you get to see who was important during a different time and then you go look up their stats and read their histories...). I am wondering if the issues of the day might take on new meaning if we drew parallels1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattthe NYC analogy would be "how do you do maintenance on a subway system that never sleeps?"1 month 1 week ago
rick82Imagine fixing a car while someone's driving it.1 month 1 week ago
CaffeineHit the refresh button for the page, even if you are opening the page in a new browser window - that seems to cure Shout Box weirdness. Really diggin&#039; the new stuff you got going on, Doc. As a rule, I don&#039;t pay for Web content. Yours (and the astounding crew around here) would be the immediate exception. This is my go-to site - the other guys just don&#039;t have the same caliber of info and &#039;tainment.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiAh. Yes, they're migrating the site over to a different platform (or fill in the right words for 'migrate' and 'platform'!) and duct-taping until then. If I understand right. … That would explain why I'm getting odd versions of the posts and Shout Box updates depending on which device I use, maybe. They're workin' it.1 month 1 week ago
IcebreakerXDoc, the site is working better but there's some really weird things going on with the shoutbox. On some pages, it's stuck in the past, on others it's up-to-date. I imagine the dynamic nature of this is causing caching problems on the site overall.1 month 1 week ago
IcebreakerXBowden's comment about bullpen only makes sense in the context that maybe the M's are going to move some arms... Hmm...1 month 1 week ago
John PierceThink about how Z has operated the last two off seasons. Last year he signed Cano to a $240 mil contract. Tried to get him help, but I am thinking that the real money wasn&#039;t there yet. But he got Cano, easily the best player in baseball to invest that kind of money in. This offseason, the coffer doors have blown open. All that TV money is here. He tried for VMart and missed, so he shifts gears and gets Cruz. Then signs Seager long, long term to a team friendly contract. Trades for Happ to add needed depth to the rotation. Now he&#039;s on the verge of adding the last real piece to the puzzle without sacrificing any of the young guns. He has done it with a lot of thought. When you compare how Z has done to the GMs from Texas and LA, there is no comparison. I think Z has done a masterful job. Sign Melky and a few minor pickups and we&#039;re THERE, BAYBEE1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Melky's arm is better than Ackley's, but baserunners WILL run on him if he's in RF. But maybe there is more going on, though. Rios could be another piece? Or my preferred trade? Or they have Jones/Kivlehan/Blash for late inning defense? RF in Safeco is smaller, but it's still a longer throw to third or home.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattRF and LF aren't very different. Don't think it matters much...and RF is the easier side in Safeco1 month 1 week ago
moethedogHey guys.....Melky isn't much of a RF, let's be clear. He played 2 games there last year, 6 in '12, 1 in '11 and 17 in '10. Again, I'm the contrarian. He's not my favorite guy to get....but I'll give him this: He's been pretty good 3 of the last 4 years.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattone wonders if it mightn't be worth it to sign both Melky and Rios. Melky to play RF and Rios to spell Ackley against lefties.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattHeyman confirms Mariners interest in Melky and says they are willing to offer a Cruz-like deal (4/57 +/- some amount)...Cabrera wants five years and has several suitors but my guess is he will take the offer that maximizes the total commitment.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattDoc....I see the final version of that article1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattyes...Z sees the need for a bridge hitter to get to Cano. He wants a specific style...either a righty or a switchy...preferably a switchy...and he wants someone who can play passable RF defense...I don't fault him for that sort of thinking, although...Seager would make a fine #2 hitter if you got Kemp and wanted to stick him in the 4 hole. Or Cano for that matter. :D Melkman in the 2 hole and we keep our pitching depth...that's a WS team.1 month 1 week ago
John PierceI wonder how Z&#039;s feeling heading into the winter meetings Playing Brian Cashman. ;)1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiZduriencik emphasized a #2 hitter who bats right. As a sabe, I am appalled at the emphasis on batting order. As a 2015 fan, Melky #2 would be symphonic.1 month 1 week ago
jemanji"Paxton, Walker and Elias are ours and the Dodgers and Braves can't have them."1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiHey. Do you guys see the final version of the Melk-man article, referring to Jose Vidro in the first paragraph, or the first version, with Jarrod Washburn? On my mobile devices it shows the un-revised version first published. Grrrrr. Would really appreciate knowing.1 month 1 week ago
merksI listened to a couple of interviews with jay-z yesterday and he mentioned that he needs to get a pitcher back in a trade where he sent a pitcher out. Kind of sounded like he was talking to opposing GM's rather than the interviewer. My guess if we do trade Walker Z will want a pitcher back. Who that might be I do not know. He also said his starting staff is set and a resigning of Young is unlikely.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI'd just give swing innings to Wilhelmson1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossThat works for both teams, IMO. I'd still want another starter then, but it could be the Bartender honestly.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattWould be fine with adding Cargo and Rosario for Walker and a reliever or something like that.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossThat's why I think if we go after Cargo that Walker would be the one to get him. They have a couple of lefties in the rotation so they don't need Paxton (not that I'd give him up) and Walker is our #4 arm right now, reasonable-case. But if Cargo costs Walker (maybe Cargo + Rosario, if we're still looking for a backup C) and Melky just costs money + a 2nd round pick (since Cruz cost our 1st rounder) then it's about years and performance. Melky's a year older, they're about the same player (career WAR)... but Cargo can't say no to us. It might come down to that.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattWalker doesn't even crack my starting rotation right now. Seriously. I put him back in AAA. Happ is a better bet than Walker. Elias is a better bet than Walker. Paxton is a better bet. Walker is literally extra.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianHere's what gets me jazzed about next year: SP 1. Felix SP 2 Iwakuma, SP 2A Paxton SP 2B The Bullpen, SP 3 Happ SP 4 Walker, SP 6 Elias SP 7 Hultzen. Say it with me. Paxton, Walker and Elias are ours and the Dodgers and Braves can't have them. The Dodgers can sign Jon Lester for $200 million, and the Braves can sign Aaron Harang or Ervin Santana or somebody.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattwinter meetings next week...make me a happy man, Z...git'r'done1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattthey think they can add 10-12 mil per year and multiple years now, they can certainly afford Kemp if the Dodgers get hit with a clue bat and get more reasonable1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattif we got him: CF) Jackson RF) Cabrera 2B) Cano DH) Cruz 3B) Seager 1B) Morrison C) Zunino LF) Ackley SS) Miller/Taylor - droooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooolll1 month 1 week ago
merksMatt what I like about it is even if they don't sign him it's a hint as to how much cash they still have to spend.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattLet's see Seattle come in hot with a 5 year guarantee and a slightly lower AAV...I think he would take that.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattSweeeeeeeet...per Dutton: Mariners showing increased interest in Cabrera. They covet his switch hittery-ness, his fit in the 2 hole and his outfield defense. ME LIKEY VERY MUCHY!1 month 1 week ago
merksBob Dutton is reporting that the M's are increasing their interest in Melky. 5 years $50+.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiSure. James-style light hyperbole so nobody misses your point. … or does he still do that? Hmmm.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattJust to be clear, I am not confident enough in that flippant remark to put money on was more to generate conversation about how awesome Happ is going to be...because he's going to be awesome. You folks are gonna feel silly for doubting this trade in about mid May1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiJust kiddin' around. :- ) … on his game, though, Iwakuma is certainly one of the 10 best in the AL. … he's got the #6 xFIP in the AL 2013-14, too. Ahead of Max Scherzer and Jon Lester, who wish to be paid rather more for their services. But yeah. If you're predicting a 'Kuma decline, sure.1 month 1 week ago
eknpdxI&#039;m curious as to why Corey Dickerson isn&#039;t being thought of since Saunders departure? I get people think he&#039;s a platoon bat, but minor league numbers suggest that ought to be tested for a season or two. And while a road .700 OPS / .150 ISO ain&#039;t something to get giddy over, his minor league track record suggests there&#039;s thump in that stick.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattThink I went too far, Doc? I think Iwakuma will regress some in 2015...and I could see Happ throwing a 3 ERA and outpitching him. :)1 month 1 week ago
moethedogGordon: I think Romero has a chance, and I wouldn't spit if we just gave the job to Kivlehan and said, "Hit the ball, kid." But I think we will add another OF (even if he is the 4th guy) anyway. I can't see us going huge on this next deal, however.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiEXTREMELY flippant1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossVery smooth, Jeff. :)1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattIt's a shame the Mariners can't QO Iwakuma...we could have a massive pile of first round picks if they could...Iwakuma, Jackson, Happ...:)1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattFlippant comment of the day: Happ will outpitch Iwakuma in 20151 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattyeah Doc...did they change to a new server with better bandwidth or something? It's loading a lot faster for me.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiSSI is running smooth now, no?1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiWhat is the value of a Jones leveraged stolen base? Somebody should go over to Fangraphs, look up such a situation, and check the change in win probability. (That won't even factor in the M's bullpen.) Probably similar to a two-run HR in the first inning. … agreed MoeDawg. It's hard to see how you justify a PR with this bullpen and roster crunch.1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiBULLPEN DEPTH! In related news Terry, the Seahawks plan to use their first pick on a quarterback. … on a brighter note, maybe he has heard the M's have made on offer to Andrew Miller?1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiJohn - you're on a roll. Keep it comin' amigo :- )1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiJonez, Diderot, and SABRMatt noticed a bunch of J.A. Happ stuff that Dr. D had not. More detail at the orbiting satellite: month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossAgreed Moe. If we hold onto Miller (and IMO, if the option is trading for Blackmon or using Miller in RF, then by all means keep Miller for that duty - he has more upside) then we should have a RH benchie. Romero would make me cry a little cuz I don't think he's ready, so it'll have to be some OTHER righty. Still interested in Gattis for RF/C backup, and letting Miller bounce between SS and the OF. We'll see what happens.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossMaybe we're looking at a smaller deal for somebody like Blackmon, though. I wouldn't be too ecstatic about that - I always worry about average-offense players who are doing well in hitters parks. Jay Bruce would scare me too, and I know the Reds are entertaining offers - but his offense outside of Cincy would not be nearly as useful even if he regains his former level - and in the Safe it could be disastrous. Cargo at least smokes the ball around the park (Ichiro-like .350 BABIP lifetime).1 month 1 week ago
moethedogIf Miller goes to RF, then the 4th OF needs to be a RHB.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossI'm curious about who we're looking to get from the Rockies for the OF, though. Only Cargo is worth a big trade like Walker, and that depends on how you feel about Cargo's effort and ability outside of Coors - and whether he can stay healthy. I happen to think Cargo is a good player, not a great one - more Detroit's Carlos Guillen than an MVP candidate. But if a good hitter is all we need to make it work... we could do way worse. We'd still need another arm in that case, though - maybe Chris Young does come back at that point after all, to do a relay with Elias as we get into August and September.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogYou need a BU C, Taylor or Miller (whoever doesn't play SS), Bloomie, and a 4th OF. That's 13. Unless Jones is the 4th OF he gets in the way just to PR. That 4th OF should ideally play 1B, too. And bat RH...unless our RF can play 1B and bats RH. Jones is a great asset. More so when rosters can expand...unless he's the #4 guy.1 month 1 week ago
Gordon GrossJones is a great asset on the bases - I just wish he were better at getting on-base by himself. Still, Jones as your backup OF glove and pinch runner in some capacity would be good if you can swing it. He scares the pants off teams in the 8th and 9th innings on the bases.1 month 1 week ago
DaddyOTo me James Jones is a tremendous bench asset. It's well worth finding a way to carry him. He can win five games or so just by late-inning pinch running. His base stealing ability is so far off the charts that he changes the game the moment he enters it. He's wasted in AAA.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianJones is such a good benchie. His baserunning is the coolest. I also like how if McClendon gets a lead, Jones is a big part of late game lockdown mode. Just switch out your right fielder for Jones, call the bullpen, and do a crossword while you wait for the postgame press conference.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattBowden is such a moron.1 month 1 week ago
SABR is in September. :)1 month 1 week ago
benihanaOff-Topic - What is the value of a leveraged stolen base? James Jones swiped 27 bases in 28 tries. Is it worth a bench spot to have a guy who can reliably move a lumberer (Cruz, Zunino, Lomo, etc.) into scoring position late in close games? Does our bullpen and tendency to be in close games matter in that equation?1 month 1 week ago
phxterryHead scratcher - Jim Bowden at ESPN listing the needs of each MLB team going into the winter meetings. For Mariners, he lists"corner outfielder and bullpen depth." Wow.1 month 1 week ago
John PierceAckley is an athlete. He started at an unfamiliar 2B and exceled. Moved to CF after the Cano trade and proved very adequate out there. Last year he spent the whole year in LF. I think he morphed into a very good fielder. I suspect, because of the mental strain of learning new positions, that his offense struggled. That could be the reason that, after he got comfortable playing his new positions, his offense seemed to pick up after the All Star break. Since he won&#039;t have to learn a new position next year, he could be primed for a breakout season.1 month 1 week ago
misterjonezI don't know if someone has already posted this, but here's the Legion of Boom welcoming the 'Boomstick' to Seattle. Good stuff :) month 1 week ago
bsr"Cruz is a winner," McClendon said. "He comes to play every day. He hits home runs, he drives in runs, he gets big hits when the game is on the line. He hits the best pitching, not just the mediocre pitching, and he is unbelievable in the clubhouse." Hard RBI's baby...I'll take 100 more, thanks. SSI has been on this concept forever and the Keith Law types still don't seem to get it for some mystifying reason. The majority of (non-SSI) online baseball analysis almost seems to have turned into its own strange esoteric academia realm at this point...only sometimes connected to the real life sport/business of baseball.1 month 1 week ago
bsrLineup protection theory...maybe the internet nerds can't quantify it but Z says it matters to the hitters: "Yeah, pitchers love pitching here. But hitters look at the lineup. As much as you think they look at the ballpark -- and they do -- they also look at the lineup and who is going to be around me and what are the chances to win? That is a huge thing when you're talking to agents."1 month 1 week ago
moethedogMariners GM Jack Zduriencik reiterated that pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma will not be traded, tweets Greg Johns of Iwakuma, 34 next season, has been excellent when healthy. Unfortunately, he’s also missed parts of two out of three major league seasons. The Mariners are already receiving calls on recently acquired starter J.A. Happ, tweets Kevin Shockey of My guess is that teams are looking to gauge how the Mariners plan to use Happ. The southpaw quietly added two mph to his fastball last season and adjusted his repertoire as a result. Some clubs may view him as a possible breakout target.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogOne option to replace outfielder Michael Saunders is infielder Brad Miller, writes Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle. The club’s outfield coach called him a natural, and he does appear to be blocked by Robinson Cano, Chris Taylor, and Kyle Seager in the infield. Taylor is obviously the weak link of the trio. After a solid but flawed debut, he could relinquish the job back to Miller. Man, what was flawed with Taylor's debut? No homers, I suppose.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571second R-L #3-41 month 1 week ago
Bat571The only thing with signing Melky is that it almost requires a trade for a bona fide RF and for using Ackley to get it - Melky fits best in LF. And Ackley really does fit best at 2B. But, if the Nats would do it, I really like the end result - Souza bats down in the lineup while he gets his feet wet, and if he starts smacking it, all to the good. He and Morrison can be a second L-R #3-4, just farther down the lineup. And Leon may be as good as Sucre with the glove, maybe better with the bat (and, like Melky, a switch-hitter), and might give Zunino more chance to work on his game. If Blowers is right and Ackley is ready to break out - well, c'est la way la ball bounces.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571So, I've talked myself into wishing for a: Jackson - MCabrera - Cano - Cruz - Seager - Souza - Morrison - Zunino/Leon - Miller lineup, with a Gattis - Jones - WillieB bench. Wonder if Santa JackZ could make it happen? Even missing on Gattis wouldn't be that bad - Kivlehan and Hicks are nearly ready.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI want Melkman. That is what I'm rooting for.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Melky+Cruz+Cano+Rodney might be a combo to really get things going in the 'Pen - get some Caribbean rhythms going, add Sancocho to the menu at Edgar's, and add to the "Family Experience" as well as to the lineup credibility. .....Maybe it could be the best of both worlds?1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Just noodlin' really - but a sign Melky+trade for Gattis+trade for Souza/Leon week looks really doable from here in spud country and would really change some dynamics without cutting into the core. It would probably cost Ackley + Taylor + prospects + the Ms 2nd round choice, but would it be better in the long run than Kemp? --- I'm starting to think maybe some more guys on base + some developing power + more load sharing for Zunino might really be a better way. And having some room to chase a top starter, even if we come up short, would put the Angles, Orcs, Strangers, and LAstros on notice that the FO is on board with going for it. Then maybe next year the FAs will look at Seattle early and with more interest and won't need to be "bought" here as much.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianMcClendon will want a RH bat that scores pretty darn good to tremendous on the MSS. You have to have thoroughbreds if you want to win the Kentucky Derby.1 month 1 week ago
John PierceI&#039;d love to have him, but trading Walker for a one year rental seems excessive, especially when there are Melkys out there. Before the Happ trade, there was a dearth of quality arms behind our starting five. But, when you can get a 6&#039;5&quot; LHer throwing 95 MPH, I think that&#039;s a good thing. I liked Saunders, but not enough to call for Z&#039;s head for trading him. I do wish him luck north of the border, though. I&#039;m curious, where did the &amp;#039; come from?1 month 1 week ago
jemanjiThe two comps are telling John. Good stuff. Yours is probably the *visceral* reaction (to Kemp and Cruz) that most of us have. Your thoughts on renting Justin Upton?1 month 2 weeks ago
John PierceI worry about signing Kemp, like I worried about signing either Fielder or Hamilton, a lot. I didn&#039;t have those worries after they signed Cano. Surprisingly, I think Cruz will work out well for the M&#039;s. He was probably checked for PEDs a lot last year and this is probably his retirement contract so he really has no need to juice anymore. Unless LA kicks in a ton of money, I think Kemps contract could really hamstring us.1 month 2 weeks ago
jemanjiAt the New SSI, they say that there will be a Steroids Shout Box with hyperlinks, pics, and threading. :- O1 month 2 weeks ago
jemanjiMojo - oh! You're Leif? Yeah, I edit my own articles and comments, sometimes 3-5 times. I gotcha. … MSS = you literally make me chuckle out loud when you get to talking about McClendon. You're thinking that he'll want what grade as the 2nd bat in?1 month 2 weeks ago
jemanjiBat - adding Melky, Kemp, and Gattis? :- ) What is this, an attempt to dominate baseball?1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571IFF the M's are willing to go beyond $140M, what makes more sense, if you can get 2 of 3 - Kemp, Melky, or John Lester? Can Gattis field well enough to backup LF, 1B, and C for 3 years? Or do you move Ackley+ to the Nats and get Souza+Sandy Leon+ to cover those backups (and RF as well) and sign Melky? The signing of Cruz makes for interesting possibilities. I'd still like Kemp, but not for Walker, and Melky is looking very interesting right now if the Nats want a 2B who can back up in LF/CF to give us a RF and BU C. Then sign Lester before he's gone?1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianI've put up a couple of posts at new DOV, but I tread lightly at Wordpress, because I don't have any ability to edit stuff after it is posted. The editing feature is something that has kept my foot out of my mouth on more than a few occasions. The MSS grades as follows: 0-2 Horse (Manure) 2-4 Interesting 4-6 Pretty Good, 6-8 Pretty Darn Good, 8-10 Tremendous/ someone's play "makes me look smart". Tremendous is McClendon's highest ranking, except when he is talking about James Paxton.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571If the Ms really are stretching the budget and signing some premium guys for the short-term, a low-price Gattis might fit in quite nicely longer-term as a backup while they pay the older guys, and then be ready to go to DH when Cruz fades. Dreaming, I know, but fun.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571And there's a report that the Braves may keep Upton to get the pick when he leaves next year, but may trade Gattis to make room for Markakis. That might be of interest with or without Kemp. Can you imagine a lineup Jackson - Seager - Cano - Cruz - Kemp - Morrison - Gattis/Zunino - Ackley/Gattis - Miller or even Jackson - MCabrera - Cano - Cruz - Kemp - Seager - Gattis/Zunino - Morrison - Miller? Yes, Jackson would have to cover a lot of ground, but boy, what fun!1 month 2 weeks ago
jemanjiMojo - you click-stepped through my own 3 reactions. The sensation was like watching Inception. …. MSS = most comforting concept I've read all day. (My day started 18 minutes ago.) … we are going to eventually see you at the New Mainframe, hopefully? http://drdetectovision.wordpress.com1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571MLBTR reporting that the Padres are offering Yasmani Grandal for Kemp. With the Dodger's needs, Taylor + Medina doesn't trump that? I know they want an upgrade from Ellis, and Grandal's a nice C, but.... If the Dodgers are asking for Taijuan Walker from us, it would appear there is some room to negotiate. Still would think Taylor + Medina + Guerrero would be similar to other packages for similar trades, but would adding Marlette make a difference? I'd try it. 2 MLB(tm)-vetted guys and 2 of the M's top 10 prospects wouldn't get it done?1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianMcClendon's scouting report on Nelson Cruz: "It is tremendous to have him in the middle of the order." McClendon also went on record to say that he wants one more right handed bat, presumably one that grades at least a pretty darn good on the McClendon Scouting Scale (MSS). month 2 weeks ago
mojicianAfter investigating the matter, apparently, this has been going on for some time. Humidity tampering is like chemical warfare. Teams don't do it because they don't want it to be done to them.1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianEven worse, what prevents a team from playing hydrated balls in the top half of the innings and dehydrated balls in the bottom half of the innings? Are there ball hydration security measures out there? How do we know the Orcs aren't already doing this?1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianIf an enterprising groundskeeper wanted to give his team a home field advantage, he could run the game balls through a humidor, or a dehydrator as appropriate to drastically alter the play. Supposing it was J.A. Happ flyball day, he could hydrate the balls to make sure that they were all staying in the park. If the hitters were slumping, the groundskeeper could bake or dehydrate the balls to liven it up a bit. The ball looks exactly the same whether it is hydrated or dehydrated, and the weight is negligible until it takes flight, so the chances of getting caught would be minimal.1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianBall humidity, not air humidity, affects the pop in a baseball to an average of 2.8 mph off the bat. 2.2 mph is attributed to ball springiness, and .6 is attributed to extra ball weight. A humidor was first used at Coors field to deaden the ball. That extra five percent loss in springiness led to a 30 percent reduction in homeruns.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogAlong those lines, from MLBTR: •The Rangers and Mariners join the previously-reported Cubs as teams to have checked in on outfielder Jonny Gomes, Jerry Crasnick of tweets. The veteran lefty-masher should have his choice of several landing spots, and will no doubt look to maximize his expected role.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogI'm there, too Gordon. I can see Rasmus happening. He plays CF (decently +) and can move to CF if we don't sign Jackson next year. We would need to add a 4th COF with a RHB for balance. Hmmmm....Kivlehan? I like a Rasmus signing much more than Rios, for example. Melky, he should be significantly cheaper.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossI dunno why, but I'm expecting a Colby Rasmus type deal. Which would be odd because he's basically Michael Saunders, complete with attitudinal quirks. But Colby is still in his prime, can still play CF (which we'll need beyond this year), wouldn't help our OBP issues at all so he fits right in with the club we've got, and he doesn't cost the extra draftpick that Melky does. I wish Jack would hurry up and add the OF we need so I can stop wondering. There are a lot of options... but I figured he had a handshake agreement before moving Saunders. We'll see.1 month 2 weeks ago
rick82Cruz/Saunders: the Mariners giverth, and the Mariners taketh away1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossMike's message to Mariners fans (per Divish): "I just want them to know how much I appreciated their support. I can never thank them enough. They stood behind me through thick and thin, good and bad. They always had my back. They are the one thing I'm gonna miss the most. I consider them part of my family. They will always have a place in my heart." Soo... July 24th or so should be a standing ovation when Saunders comes back to visit with the Jays. I really did not want to part with him. Looking forward to seeing the plan for replacing him (even tho I think Happ will be pretty good for us).1 month 2 weeks ago
jemanjiThe J.A. Happ discussion thread has morphed, like J.A. Happ himself. If you can load it, you won't believe Dr. D's cheek. And sorry 'bout the server issues.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainNow we get the news that Blake Beavan has signed a minor league deal with Arizona... What are these Mariners doing??? ... Oh wait... did I write Beavan... never mind.1 month 2 weeks ago
misterjonezThat does seem to have become a 'must' at this point, Griz. Before, they could have theoretically punted and been ~ok, but now without their most productive OF from 2014 (on a per-AB basis, anyway) they're really going to need to solidify one of the corners. I suppose Melky could do.1 month 2 weeks ago
j.b. Kawikaany idea why I can&#039;t see comments on the POTD post? The main page says there are 8, but when I click into the post it says zero.1 month 2 weeks ago
MtGrizzlyJack had better land an OF now.1 month 2 weeks ago
misterjonezAgreed on trading Walker andpicking up one of the three aces (I'd be ok with Shields) but that would work well. Still, it's a little more aggressive than even the FO seemed to signal they were willing to be this offseason. If it netted us Kemp+Shields/Lester/Scherzer, though...nah, that's probably too much money. Not sure I see an MLB-ready COF that could make an impact this year that's available. Souza, maybe, but he's no sure thing...I dunno. Happ for Saunders is interesting, but it really does call a few things into question.1 month 2 weeks ago
IcebreakerXGo Blue Jays.1 month 2 weeks ago
SilentpadnaDoc, site is all out of whack today....Originally tried to put the shout below into the "paradox" post comment section. No luck. Logging in is tough.... navigation not responding....just an FYI - as if you needed it.1 month 2 weeks ago
SilentpadnaGet Lester or Sherzer. The offense ain't a juggernaut of course. If you can't give in to the con artists who want your aces, you always have alternatives. There are two sitting out there right now. They have the cash earmarked, which is useless until they deploy it. So deploy it. Get me some Scherzer or Lester. Cool by me. Then, if you have to trade Walker, you make THEM add the sweeteners.1 month 2 weeks ago
GrumpyBlarg.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogIf we trade Walker for one year of Upton and we don't win a World Series I'm going to cry out loud. One year of Upton? Justin Upton is very nice. Not THAT nice.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogMe thinks he dith protest too much. Well..."dith" probably isn't a word. It's as close to the past tense of "doth" as I can come up with. I just get the sense he and the Skipper had it out in private one time.1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianI don't get what the Mariners had against Saunders. He was a 1. Fan Favorite, with 2. The coolest nickname on the team, 3. He was worth the arbitration money that he was owed next year, even if he only played 70 games, he slotted as a fourth outfielder like peas and carrots. I also don't get why he complained about playing time when he had an advanced injury history. Maybe behind closed doors, the Condor squawked too much. Or something.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainThe $7 to 10 million in this market probably buys you one whale of a pitcher... be it Masterson or Liriano or ....1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainLast point... with the winter meetings happening in a couple days, why not wait to see if you could get more? Was Jack actually worried that Happ was the best he could do for Saunders? in this offense starved market?1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianGood point Tacoma. Condor had better not dive for anything in Toronto.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogI would like to dislike this move, as Daddy does, but I can't bring myself to. I don't like it, mind you. But moving Saunders for something not-terrific was a fait accompli a while back. If we move Taijuan for Kemp now, well....I won't know what to say. With guys available for lesser things, I think I would dislike that move. To tell you the could probably get Craig for a very affordable amount. Now that I would be WAY in for! Will take Souza, BTW....and grin ear-to-ear. Gordon is probably right about Kivlehan, he's not ready "now." The question is whether he would be ready by June 1st? On that, I will not bet against him. In fact, I would bet a fair sum on him.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainBy the way, if Saunders and his $3.5M salary are worth Happ and his $6.7M salary... then Jack should be able to trade Erasmo for Allen Craig or Victorino & cash.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainHow much does Jack hate Saunders to send his beaten up body to the astro-turf in Toronto. There is no way Saunders will survive 50 games per year actually played in Toronto.1 month 2 weeks ago
DaddyOBy itself I do NOT like this move. My only hope is that other larger but related moves make how I feel about this one irrelevant. Say, for example, that we get Kemp at a greatly reduced cost in exchange for Walker. I don't want to give up Walker...if we do Kemp should come with some very serious salary offset.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571I've really wanted Kemp, but not if it costs Taijuan or any of the other "core" guys (Taijuan, Paxton, Miller, Zunino). D.J. I'm less attached to, especially now that Seager has been extended. But if the Ms could get Souza for Ackley (to play 2B for the Nats), and they could sign Melky for ~4/$60M, it probably is better now than getting Kemp at the price they're talking. And "scrap-heap" is what Happ is - once a prized prospect, now likely Noesi redux. Bleeeccchh!!! Go get Melky, Z, and lets get the Dominican dancing going in the 'Pen.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossI swear, if they trade Taijuan because they got a scrap-heap #5 pitcher and we don't get a juggernaut, I'm gonna be... upset. Yes, Safeco will help Happ with his flyball problem. That's not a good enough reason for trading the baby wunderkind. Especially not if it's in this ludicrous Walker + DJ + other stuff deal for Kemp. Kemp had better cost us about a buck-forty-seven in salary if that's the case.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571Happ, year in, year out has allowed > league average OPS to opposing batters. The suggestion (from Morosi on MLB TV) that he's coming in to allow trading Taijuan Walker makes me ill. Why couldn't they just have signed Chris Young? He's probably available for the same $6M+ they're going to pay Happ. I just don't get this at all. Is there some other team that *wants* Happ and there's more to come?1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossWell, Happ is the #5 starter we were looking for (assuming Felix, Kuma, Taijuan and Paxton are 1-4). That puts Elias on the outside looking in, which is fine - he's the best #6 around, and can throw half the year in Tacoma til we need him. And we've made the hole in RF as moe said... now it's time to fill it. Romero isn't ready. Kivlehan isn't ready (but is good at doing things he's not ready for). Miller doesn't have enough bat for a full-time gig there, I don't think - not with Jackson and Ackley as the other two OFers. Go find me a bat, Jack. Now we really need one. Best of luck to the Condor, in health and in the lineup.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571At this point, I've come around to the idea that OBP up top is the next need. So, Melky Cabrera makes more sense to me now - LF and batting 2nd. Then trade Ackley (+ Medina +?) to Washington for Souza to play RF and for Taylor Hill and/or Felipe Rivero for AAA starters that *could* go into the rotation if there's a problem. Frankly, I don't see much in Happ - I think Elias is better. Sad day for me.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogHapp gets beat by walks, homers and base hits. At least in Safeco the homers will decline a bit. Saunder's value wasn't great, was it? Someday we will read the behind the spin story of how the Condor ticked off a manager and a FO. But this means there is another roster move. We are now short a RF. Unless it is Romero/Kivlehan/Miller.....1 month 2 weeks ago
malcontentAlso, drool over that Toronto offense now that they have the final piece.1 month 2 weeks ago
malcontentFun fact about J.A. Happ. In 2007, his average Fastball velocity was 87.7 MPH. It's risen every season since and was 92.7 last season.1 month 2 weeks ago
okdanYup. Saunders to Toronto for JA Happ. The Condor has left the nest.1 month 2 weeks ago
malcontentSomehow I always expected Condor to end up in Toronto1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainDoc - I had trouble logging in this morning, but I was able to refresh the site at lunch time - and everything cleared up for me1 month 2 weeks ago
jemanjiMatt says he's having trouble logging in. I'd ask if anybody else does, but they'd be unable to shout back, right? Maybe DOV The Sequel is the place to answer that ...1 month 2 weeks ago
jemanjiOn both of those, I'd need the inside medical info … know any physical trainers who could comment?1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossWondering if anybody wants to take a shot on Medlen or Ogando for that #5 slot that could push Elias back to AAA/long relief as insurance or playoff-stretch planning.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossJose Campos absolutely destroyed the NWL as an 18 year old. He's never been healthy since, and he's lost a foot or two off his fastball. I expect the Yanks to re-sign him, probably, because even with his injury woes he's still had his control whenever he can get into games. They'll probably convert him to relief, see if he can emerge as a Rafael Soriano type. if they don't want to try that, I'm fine with picking him up and seeing what he's got left. Kid had a tremendous and accurate arm.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossKinda love that Seager's option year becomes a player option if he's traded (thus making him less likely to be traded) AND would be a drop in price if his performance or heath declines in previous years. He wants to be here for his career. Seager is signing up for a place in the Mariners panthoen. He wants to stay here, not just get paid.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainAlso worthy of a wry smile - Campos non-tendered by the Yankees. Hard to imagine Hector is the best player from the trade currently.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogAnd Carlos Rivero, we hardly knew ye.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogToronto non-tendered Smoak. Dierks, too. He will find a job, I think. He was injured all of last year but he isn't terrible and he had a very nice '12.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogHeisey isn't Van Slyke. He doesn't hit...and his value is that he can play CF, although he has played it less the last couple of years. He almost seems to be an acquisition before they dump some other OF. If we're trading Ackley for Van Slyke I would be just fine. I think the Dodgers will keep him. I'm not sure what Heisey is about.1 month 2 weeks ago
misterjonezThat makes Seager ours for a long, long time. Glad to have him in the fold.1 month 2 weeks ago
MtGrizzly@timdierkes: Breakdown on Kyle Seager: 2015: $4MM, '16: $7.5MM, '17: $10.5MM, '18: $18.5MM, '19: $19MM, '20: $19MM, '21: $18MM. '22 option for $15-20MM.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR Mattmerks - there is definitely an argument for Van Slyke...I just wonder whether the Dodgers will ask us for something too good to give up1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattThey do seem to be in an awful big hurry to replicate the Astros' model for success.1 month 2 weeks ago
merksMatt I was thinking that Van Slyke would be the right handed bat to Saunders, Ackley and Lomo. All three of those hitters are prone to slumps. If given some time off with a quality rh hitter to take their place and keep them fresh I could see it helping all three in the long run. If the M's could get a big upgrade in right field then that would be great but if they can't afford another big time contract then I would be pretty happy with Van Slyke.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossThe Padres are such a weird team. I thought they might non-tender him - trouble with the law, AND steroids, AND injuries AND a terrible 2014 were probably too much for them. And reasons we could still get value for our SS, neither of whom have had problems with any of that (well, Miller had a pretty bad few months in '14). But the Pads seem committed to making sure no talented players remain on their roster, for reasons that are opaque to me.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattEverth Cabrera's non-tender causes problems for the Mariners if they expected to get good value for their SS guys. Teams will be saying "why can't I just go sign Cabrera? He's pretty talented you know, and your guys are no more certain than he is to rebound and produce for me," The Mariners should not trade either of their SS duo until Cabrera signs.1 month 2 weeks ago
merksTorii Hunter to the Twins. Ok with that.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattDon't think Van Slyke is enough unless we keep Saunders and Taylor+Miller. Can we get Van Slyke without giving up those three?1 month 2 weeks ago
merksSo with the Dodgers trading for right handed hitting outfielder Chris Heisey does this free up Van Slyke to be traded? Inquiring minds want to know. Would love to obtain a RF/1st base right handed hitter right about now and Slick would be the man. Get him 350 ab's and call it good.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattTHey're worried about his arm AND they are trying not to waste money on a losing season.1 month 2 weeks ago
jemanjiWould make no sense, but for the suspicion that the Braves are real worried about his elbow -1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogKris Medlen was non-tendered. He's an arb guy and will probably get $9M or so. Somebody will get a nice pitcher.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogExcellent stuff, Doc. Two thumbs up!1 month 2 weeks ago
jemanjiOkey doke, new article at Drive home safely.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogSaunders is better than Ackley in my book. Not so in the Skipper's book, I feel. I would rather keep the Condor. Alas, it isn't likely. Either way, I would be really in on getting Souza, who I think will be a player. And if we're going to try to add a veteran OF after that, I would have no problem with adding Colby Rasmus...he seems to be slipping under the radar. He was a plus CF glove in '12 and '13 and over the last 3 years he's vR OPS'ed .740-.893-.752 and vR ISO'ed .200-.270-.231. It ain't fashionable to say, but he's better than Ackley. If we had a cheap Souza, then 2 RHB and 2 LHB OF's works nicely. I get the sense that we like Romero to help this year, as well. Rasmus might become pretty cheap for a couple of years. Let Jackson go after the year and stick him in CF. He K's, but he's a decent slugger, too.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattHave added the new DOV to the bookmarks...sweeeet1 month 2 weeks ago
jemanjiA bit of new discussion at … and an explanation of how the City In the Clouds could serve the Valley Dwellers1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattSullivan's article on Cruz contains a massive flaw. He notes that Steamer projects Cruz to be worth 1.5 wins in 2015...but that is with steamer's assumption that he'll be worth -17 runs on defense. How can he be worth -17 runs on defense if he's DHing?1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattI'd be willing to give them Saunders and a good reliever...not more than that.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossVictor: .320/ .390/ .490 in the minors, .9 EYE. Yasmani: .310/ .410/ .490, .7 EYE. Victor's a tough mark to hit, but Grandal does have a lot of talent at the plate while providing us with some roster flexibility since he can still catch as a backup. I would give up more than Saunders to get him - partly because the Ms seem to hate Saunders for some weird reason, and if he's gonna go I want to replace him with a real hitter with upside, not a schmuck. Instead of Fister and Souza, maybe try for a year of Kennedy and get Grandal?1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogA back up catcher....that's our need. A clarification....1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogGrandal for Saunders is a perfectly balanced trade. They want a RF and wee need a C, so it needs mutual needs as well.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossWhich is why they shouldn't scoff at Saunders. Both guys are actually in a place to be able to rehab their careers. Yasmani was undeniably rushed (just 755 minor league PAs) and he's been injured. He was a .310 hitter in the minors, so I sorta doubt he's a .225 on in thebigs like he was last year. If you think Zunino has a bunch more game to get, well so does Grandal. But he can't catch full-time and doesn't have .200 ISO power (yet) in the bigs. Victor Martinez had 1800 minor league PAs, then exploded on the scene as a poor defensive switch-hitting catcher with moderate-but-not-scary power who moved to 1B and DH.1 month 2 weeks ago
TaroYeah okay, Grandal isn't worth impact talent.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattIf the Padres think that they can get a lot more than Saunders for Grandal...I'm out.1 month 2 weeks ago
TaroGrandal is a good call. Perfect fit for our roster. Souza + Grandal seems pretty doable as well.1 month 2 weeks ago
ThirteenHrm. Asked Sullivan today about Grandal/Saunders; he said he gets the feeling the Padres are wanting an impact talent and Condor's not nearly enough. Blergh. I'm also strongly against Hunter or Rios, by the way. TOo old and slow.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR Mattto get Souza and Fister, we'd need to give up Miller or Taylor, which renders the other guy a FT SS and means he can't help in the outfield. If we are making Souza our aRF, I'd want to sign a veteran to be our 4th OFer...someone like Torii Hunter or Alex Rios1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossAfter Grandal, go get Souza for RF and call it a day for the lineup. He's a bit fragile, but LoMo and Cruz can play out there some, and if we keep Miller he's gonna need multiple positions to fill in at too, as would Willie. We can use RF like some teams use DH, weirdly. We'd still be bulging at the seams with DJ and Kivlehan and Marte prepping for the 2016 team, not to mention the second tier guys (one of whom might surprise). Something like Fister, Souza and Grandal would round us out very nicely.1 month 2 weeks ago
GrumpyI'll be very disappointed if we trade Condor be wise of some stupid hissy-fit.1 month 2 weeks ago
benihanaSaunders for Grandal would be a perfect move to shore up our bench as the back-up 1B/C. I'd even toss in a relief arm or a lower level prospect. Then go sign Melky! I can't stop dreaming about a line-up that goes rejuvenated Austin Jackson, Melky Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager... talk about putting the pressure on early... and 13 - reading Loyd's comments on Austin in Greg Johns article today - sounds like the M"s are counting on Austin, not hedging.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR Mattthe great value inherent in having a back-up catcher who can also play first base when Morrison needs to sit against a tough lefty cannot be understated. Our bench, then, would be Grandal, Bloomquist, Taylor and a fourth OFer.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR Mattthen, however, we'd have to acquire a full time right month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattIf the Padres would do Saunders for Grandal straight up, I'd jump all over that.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossI was hollering for Grandal when we went out and got Jaso in 2011. For the difference in expected price, I didn't mind Jaso. Then of course we dumped Jaso because he can't catch full-time and doesn't hit enough for a non-Oakland team at another position. Well Grandal CAN hit enough to play a chunk of first base, and catch enough to back up Zunino for 40 games a year. The park won't scare him - it'd be an IMPROVEMENT. He has a noodle arm, but so did Jaso. Just don't let Grandal catch against the Royals and we'll be fine. I'd be down with that for the right price, Logan, you betcha.1 month 2 weeks ago
ThirteenAlso... we've heard Jack is trying to get the best possible return for Saunders. But we've also heard he's going to be gone by Christmas, and probably by the winter meetings, no matter what. So I wouldn't cross my fingers real tight.1 month 2 weeks ago
ThirteenNot with his ruined knees, no.1 month 2 weeks ago
rick82No word on Willie learning the catcher position in a Latin American country somewhere?1 month 2 weeks ago
drmI'm not sure Saunders is gone. I kind of feel, he would have been gone already if they really planned on giving him away for nothing? Maybe he'll be part of a bigger trade?1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainYeah Thirteen, I think it is just a matter of time now for Saunders. Lloyd refused to play him in center despite the struggles of others. Then with Austin's flop here in Seattle, I believe that Jack has to have a back-up plan that is NOT Jones or Endy. Maybe Bourjos?? I'd rather have Fowler.1 month 2 weeks ago
ThirteenHey, come to think of it... what's this team doing with its bench? You've gotta have a backup C. You're definitely keeping Miller AND Taylor in the majors at this juncture. Then you need a fourth outfielder. So is LoMo starting at 1B vs. LHP? Or is Willie Bloomquist off the team? Hey man, thanks for the leadership, but Brad Miller does your job better, and we really need the roster slot...1 month 2 weeks ago
ThirteenSo, Saunders is gone. That relationship is fractured probably beyond repair. I'd be interested to see the Mariners try to flip him and a reliever for Yasmani Grandal - another player who broke his relationship with his team, but looks to be actually pretty good. We know they were in on Martin, and Sucre's not the loveliest backup C at the ball. Grandal can back up LoMo too.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainI think Jack / Mariners believes they need another / 4th OF. One who can play center BETTER than Saunders, and one who can bat right handed as well. I do not know if Souza fills that hole. Something tells me it may be Fowler.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossI'm curious where Jack goes next. If he believes in his guys, then I would expect a Hunter or Gaby Sanchez type add, or a trade for a minor piece that can fix a wound in the roster rather than replace an actual player. He'd want Saunders and Ackley there, as well as another RH outfielder. Saunders gives him redundancy and an emergency CF if Jackson never recovers. It allows him to make deadline trades with more major league pieces. If you keep both Miller and Taylor then you can let it play out a little longer before having to choose who stays and who goes (or trade Ackley instead of Miller, for instance).1 month 2 weeks ago
TaroI personally would do Ackley+RP in a heartbeat for Souza if that does it for the Nats. Or Chris Taylor +RP + spec. Saunders+Souza are your corner OFs and your roster is basically complete.1 month 2 weeks ago
TaroOnly question on Cruz is whether or not he'll have the motivation to continue juicing. For the money and Ms playoff prospects, I hope he does. Too bad we didn't nab him last year.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossKeith Law dislikes the Cruz deal, ergo I know I'm fond of it. I expect Cruz to go somewhat like Sexson (great first year, good second, and then it can get slightly messy). As long as we're willing to stay flexible and will promote a DH who is hitting if he drops off, it ain't that big a deal. If we'd had a hitter to replace Sexson internally it wouldn't have been THAT messy. Most big clubs will take that swing, and Cruz is not a sloppy platoon-heavy player - he's got some give in his game. If we win a World Series in the meantime, who cares? Let Jack promote someone in '18.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma Rainagreed that Ackley is worth more than Souza. That is why the Mariners need to add pieces to get Fister or Zimmerman... but I think Ackley is more of what the Nats want1 month 2 weeks ago
GLSI don't think you should have to give up an established ML position player for Souza.1 month 2 weeks ago
GLSIt's the Ackley upside I'm interested in, the breakout potential. I think we all know it's there. But even if "the breakout" doesn't happen, he's a decent bet for 2 WAR next year, as are both Taylor and Miller.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogAckley is a .401 OBP guy in 694 AAA PA's. Just .309 in the bigs. Souza is a .432 OBP guy in 407 AAA PA's. It's a pick 'em who is the better top of the order guy. But if it were down to Ackley/Taylor/Miller to be the MLB part of a package to the Nats, I would prefer Ackley. Souza can play CF as well...or did in AAA last year. month 2 weeks ago
GLSPersonally, I'd like to keep Ackley. I think he's probably our best shot at getting a true OBP guy in the batting order, though Souza could be that guy too. And I like Miller sharing time in the outfield this year, especially center if Jackson's bat doesn't come around.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainI'm with Moe - trade Ackley and pieces (combination of Erasmo/Maurer/Choi/Morban/Medina/Romero/other minor league guys) and get Souza and Zimmerman1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571facing, not just seeing!1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571Personally, to get Fister and Souza I'd rather offer Taylor + Sanchez/Pike + ? (Guerrero/Morban/Choi? - they're thin in corner outfielders on their farm and have to be thinking who is lined up behind Werth if they trade Souza). It's an overpay, but Miller has too much upside to give up in my view. They're desperate for a 2B - let's offer the guy we probably won't regret (the Jack Wilson type), rather than the one we might regret seeing in the 2015 WS.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogI think the natural guy to play 2B for the Nats is Dustin Ackley. The guy was a GG finalist there. Ackley for Souza gets close, I think. I actually read a thread the other day where somebody suggested turning Souza into a 2B!1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossYou're not selling high on Miller... but sometimes the point is to get what you need, not to maximize your value in said trade. I dunno. I'd have to think about it, but I'd probably do that. Like you said, it hinges on Souza and Taylor and what we think they bring to the table. Souza has had 3 years of crushing people in the minors, but he doesn't play full seasons. IMO he'd have quite a nice 400 PAs for us, giving Ack and Saunders days off, which we need more than a SS platoon.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossThey need a second baseman so badly their mascot cries whenever Danny Espinosa swings a bat. So I guess it would depend on how they feel about Miller at 2B. He was not much better than Espinosa last year in flat performance, but park-adjusted and bounce-back-assumed I'd think Miller absolutely gets that nod. I'd rather trade them Marte, but he's not ready for a major-league job next year. And Taylor is a better defensive SS than Miller, though not exactly Brendan Ryan with a glove.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattI'd do that G...not sure DC would, though. Their incentive would be if they believed in Miller as a long term SS solution...our incentive would be if we believed in Taylor and Souza both as long term options.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossQuestion: Fister + Souza for Miller + Victor Sanchez-ish? That gives you your arm and your bat, if you believe in Souza's ability to translate to the bigs a la Matt Carpenter (and I basically do). I don't think you can get Jordan Zimmermann out of DC without coughing up Walker, but Fister is a different matter. That guy keeps being under-rated, and we know he and Safeco get along just fine. And you'll get a draftpick pick back for him after the year if he has even a decent one.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattI'd be all for adding the Melkman. Would the Mariners consider that? They are saying they are still interested in maybe?1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossWe just lost the #19 pick in the draft for signing Cruz (keep in mind we have a sandwich second-rounder around #70 as a competitive balance pick, which we could actually trade if we didn't want to trade a prospect). Rios and Hunter don't cost another pick, which is good. Alternately we could trade for a right-handed OF, since we're probably gonna have too many players to protect in the Rule 5 as soon as next season. We have our primary bat addition - now we just need another one.1 month 2 weeks ago
benihanaAre we all in? Are we really all in? Sign Melky Cabrera!1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogI would expect that the next move will be a smaller one, less splashy and shorter in duration. Hunter's $8Mx2 doesn't work well now, I think. Plouffe would be a wonderful addition, but would cost prospects (which we can afford). If Cruz is a fulltime DH we need a fulltime RF'er. It isn't Ackley. That means we keep Saunders or swap either he or Ackley out for that RF guy. Not counting Kivlehan, of course....and I expect we should count him in.1 month 2 weeks ago
PlawsableI like the Cruz move, but think we needed to add a .350 OBP and .320 OBP to get the offense over the top. Cruz is a .320, as is Hunter. If you&#039;re replacing Saunders .323 in 13 and .341 this year, I don&#039;t think Hunter is likely better. Ackley had been basically .300-.320 the last couple years, if he ever breaks out it would be over .320. If you&#039;re talking OF corners the obvious upgrades are very few before there&#039;s a question of who would produce better. Even just comparing Saunders to Kemp or Justin Upton in projecting is dicey in my opinion. Steamer has Saunders pegged at .244/.324/.405/.730 which he did better than at age 25 and 27 but about exactly that at 26. The player I saw putting up the .791 OPS this year looked little like that to me and much more like the .803 and .808 players Kemp and Upton are projected to be. Am I out of my mind? Health could kill the counting stats but rate wise he seems close to that group already and turned 28 a couple weeks ago.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR Mattyep...the way forward, I think, is to sign Hunter or Rios, Gaby Sanchez and Masterson and wait for the trade deadline to see if we need to add any more. We could enter the 2015 season sporting a vs RHP line-up of CF) Jackson LF) Ackley 2B) Cano DH) Cruz 3B) Seager 1B) Morrison RF) Saunders C) Zunino SS) Miller and a vs. LHP line-up of CF) Jackson RF) Hunter 2B) Cano DH) Cruz 1B) Sanchez 3B) Seager/Bloomquist C) Zunino LF) Ackley/Bloomquist SS) Taylor (the bench is Bloomquist, Taylor, Sucre and Hunter/Saunders, the rotation is Felix/Kuma/Paxton/Walker/Elias/Masterson and the pen is basically the same as last year but with a higher upside second lefty instead of Beimel (the new guy we just added who is a lot of Oliver Perez).1 month 2 weeks ago
MtGrizzly@jaysonst: What's next for #Mariners? It won't be trading Iwakuma. Asked one exec how available he was. Answer: "Not. They're adding, not subtracting."1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossOh, and Matt - if you want to talk about publishing or put another pair of eyes on your novella, let me know. As for marketing, it's usually best to have more than one book to offer when trying to make headway, but that doesn't mean you can't publish now and market later. It's harder to sell novellas, though - if you CAN tie them together in one book, that's probably best. Again, talk for a later day. g dot moneyball at gmail, y'know.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossYup. Which is why I don't trade anything important unless it's for a serious upgrade. Walker and Elias should stay. If Hunter has a little more in the tank, a la Ibanez a couple-three years ago, then that's fine. Heck, I'd be fine with trading for somebody like Trevor Plouffe or Dayan Viciedo, who both OPS .830-ish against LHP - because neither guy should be all that expensive prospect-wise. Plouffe could give Seager that elusive rest he keeps missing out on, too (tho I'd expect him to be the more expensive trade option). One more bat against lefty pitchers, keep Saunders, add an arm and go to battle.1 month 2 weeks ago
SammySosoRobinson Cano was the only Ms player with an OBP over .334 last year. I don&#039;t really see that getting much better with current personnel. My plea would be that the next add helps out on that front, maybe in the 2-hole, or else Cruz won&#039;t likely be the 100 RBI guy we want him to be.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattSS should hit better in 2014...i'm pretty optimistic about that...CF should as well, but even if Jackson only hits .260 with little power and average walks...he's a 15 run upgrade over Jones and co. I like our chances to win 95 games in 2015 with Cruz onboard if we can get a solid RH outfielder and some pitching depth.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossWhat Matt said. Cruz isn't going to post an OPS below .610, like Mariners DHs have done FOUR times in the last 7 years. We paid to make sure that hole is patched with a plus bat. If we can patch one more (even just another upgrade against lefties), we should be in good shape even WITHOUT a huge bounceback from Jackson or offensive increase at SS or C, all of which are possible from our glove positions.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossNelson was not my preferred get, HOWEVER: His career OPS is .830. I dunno how far down you wanna adjust that for age curve and park factors, but please consider these numbers: .723, .656, .746, .608, .747, .609, .650, .597, .781, .567. Thats our DH OPS by year since Gar retired. One year over .750. ONE. I don't expect Cruz to hit 40 bombs again, but he could fall a LONG way from last year and still post one of the best DH seasons we've had in the last decade+. We're paying him for the surety of a better-than-100-OPS+ season. If he and Morrison can stay healthy and productive, we could go a long way.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattCruz, by himself, adds 40 runs to the Mariner run differential as the DH. If we do get another outfielder of any merit, he replaces the 400 PA we gave to lousy right-handed hitters like Romero and Hart in the OF...and could be worth another 20-25 runs added to the RD. If we can find a replacement for Young (or Young himself again...but I prefer Masterson)...we could be looking at a club that posts a 150+ RD.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattGordon...I would absolutely take the Mariners current depth chart (all sides of the ball) over Oakland's at this point. They're not done making moves, so we'll see what the final picture is...but I think we've got to be favored to beat Oakland...the worry is Anaheim.1 month 2 weeks ago
benihanaHow is this any more of an overpay than V-Mart at 4/68? Cruz has more positional value since he actually can play a passable RF is 2 years younger and is projected to hit for more power. I believe WAR over-values OBP, particularly for clean-up hitters. Either way, big time improvement for a position in dire need of one.Even if he's only worth 2 WAR next year that is a 4 win upgrade over the DH position from last season.1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianIchiro style: "If that is true (Cruz signing) it would give me great joy. But I don't believe it."1 month 2 weeks ago
rick82Considering we were speculating 4/70 mil for Cruz (which I never bought, myself), this deal sounds great.1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianObi-Wan style: " Is Cruz not the chosen one? Is he not to destroy the Angels and bring balance to the lineup?"1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattMariners are still interested in outfielders, according to Dutton - means Cruz is the DH which is good news. Alrighty...we still want Kemp and possibly Upton but are not willing to part with Walker to get those guys (reasonable)...the fallback options are Hunter and Rios...reasonable too...let's see what Jack can do here.1 month 2 weeks ago
diderotI wonder if this flips the deck in our favor in one sense. Free agents still aren&#039;t going to like all the travel...but all of the sudden, does the &#039;contender&#039; label now work in our favor? If you&#039;re Torii Hunter, don&#039;t we look like a better bet to get to the Series than his other suitors? With Cruz, seems like our chances are better than either the Royals (sans Shields and Butler) and the Orioles (sans Cruz). I like him for a year...if he&#039;ll take that. And he doesn&#039;t necessarily force Saunders off the team. Plus, leaves the 2016 door open for DJ, Kivlehan and...who knows...Montero. Gaby Sanchez? Absolutely. Anderson and/or Masterson doesn&#039;t blow up the payroll, and along with Hultzen gives us necessary depth. And we&#039;re done--without spending ONE trade chip.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR Mattmoe - 2014 may be an outlier high, but his component stats are actually improving, not getting worse...his age suggests he'll get less consistent eventually, but DH'ig probably delays that some. If he's our DH, he's a 2.5-3 win player in 2015 and 2016...that's worth about 32-40 million on the open market. For just those two years. Years 3 and 4 he would just need to produce 2-3 WAR TOTAL to be worth the money.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogIt's a big overpay. Too big, I fear. Matt's "Year 4 is free" is true if he produces for three years. From '11-'13 he was a 1.9, 2.2 and 2.4 oWAR guy (and I'm not including his negative glove). Moving forward that level of production is about what to expect. I wouldn't be surprised if we get something like his '12 season out of hem next year. 24 homers and 45 doubles is nice (in Texas) but I'm not sure it's 22 Million nice. What he does have going for him is the indication that much DH'ing helps keep him healthy. He DH'ed 80 times last year...the most he had ever done prior was 8...and he achieved a career high in games and PA's. I wouldn't have done this deal a year ago and I don't like it now. But our goose is cooked in some manner, trades have come and gone and FA's inked and the market is slimmer. C'est la vie....I suppose. I hate huge overpays. I'll trust he mashes lefties. If not...oh oh....1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571I'd rather just re-sign Young to a nice 2-year deal with incentives and options to suit - if 'Kuma leaves after next year, he'd be around to help. I suppose he wants a major league deal, so they may have to wait now until after the Rule 5 draft (although dropping Logan Bawcom now wouldn't hurt that bad). But I'd rather have a guy that understands the dynamic of the young arms here than some one who wants 33 starts, period.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossMatt: we're looking like (Infield: Zunino, LoMo, Cano, Seager, Taylor/Miller combo pack) (OF: Ackley, Jackson, Saunders for now) (DH: Cruz) right? I don't see how that's not better than Oakland's lineup you just posted, both offensively and defensively.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR Matt(and because we don't need to plug a rotation hole for four years...only one)1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossThe Ms seem to always get the wrong years on free agents - a year early or a year late on hitters not named Cano. If Cruz can hit for a couple years, it'll be all right. THIS is the window we need maximized. We just lost out on the playoffs for not signing Cruz this past year, and maybe on much more. I'd definitely try to keep both Kivlehan and DJ now, though - at least one should be needed to offset Cruz's aging shortly. Hunter would be okay as a stopgap til one of the righties minors guys gets here.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattIndeed Tacoma...I want Masterson in here because he's a good fit for the team and because I want his draft pick...1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainI'm with Matt. Masterson is a much better bet, In fact, if our pitching coaches can do for Masterson as they did for Young, Mariners will get a draft choice back when Masterson leaves.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattSo...right now, Oakland's line-up is somethjing like CF) Crisp 3B) Lawrie RF) Reddick DH) Butler C) Norris-Jaso LF) Moss 1B) Davis-Vogt 2B) Sogard SS) Punto...right?1 month 2 weeks ago
rick82Steamer has Saunders almost twice as valuable as Jennings next season btw (2.4 vs. 1.3).1 month 2 weeks ago
rick82Not sure I understand the reasoning behind picking up a half a win (according to Steamer) by signing Santana to a long term contract and moving Elias to AAA, but, hey, not going to complain if the M's want to spend more money. I like Santana. He's aging well and is only 31. Jennings....well, if I have to lose Saunders, Jennings is a nice return. That's a fast outfield, but it's fast if Saunders is out there as well.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR NOT want Ervin Santana...we have no need of spending big on SP...we should sign a bargain star like Masterson long before we do something foolish like waste 4 years of big money on a streaky goof-off like Santana. BLECH. I think we shouldn't need to trade Taylor now to get an outfielder. I would just get a cheap one-year FA like Hunter to platoon with Saunders/Ackley and trade a RP and some other surplus for an extra AAAA SP that can shuttle around and another 1B bat.1 month 2 weeks ago
ThirteenRest of the offseason plan is now clear to me. Cruz is the full-time DH. Sign Ervin Santana, who effectively no longer has draft compensation attached, bumping Elias to AAA. Trade Saunders + Taylor for the best RF/CF you can get (Desmond Jennings...?). Add a backup C, a 4th OF, and a 1B to platoon with LoMo (Gaby Sanchez...?). Willie Ballgame is backup SS until Marte is ready at midseason. Assorted minor league deals, especially for SP. Done.1 month 2 weeks ago
MtGrizzlyI love the speculation that the Seager contract basically priced the A's out of Donaldson.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattOK Doc - lessee your write up of this. :)1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR Mattwe need to add another bat...but it may not need to be a marquee bat. And yes...we need to re-secure Chris Young and add one more depth SP on top of Young. I like Justin Masterson as well so that's another option.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattThe corpse of Torii Hunter actually makes some sense now...with Cruz added to play either RF or DH depending on the line-up, you could run Hunter as the DH against lefties and Cruz as the DH against righties with Saunders in RF.1 month 2 weeks ago
okdanYup, agreed. The years might make me uncomfortable, but the dude hit 40 bombs last year. If he puts us in the playoffs in years 1 and 2, it's worth it. Now go sign a SP!1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattThis is actually great news, IMHO. Cruz is probably not going to still be effective i year for, but at 58 million, year 4 is free. You're getting two years at 22 mil or so, a third year at 14 mil, and a fourth year for free.1 month 2 weeks ago
okdanDeal confirmed (but not with details) by Jerry Crasnick1 month 2 weeks ago
okdanEnrique Rojas reporting, via a Dominican newspaper article, that the Mariners are about to sign Cruz for 4 years/$57M.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogNats may be still in the need for a 2B and a RP: Nats still have Souza and no real place for him: He's owned AAA. Let's get him.1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianRay Rice won his arbitration hearing and is eligible for reinstatement. Of course you read it at SSI three months ago.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogI've wondered if Montero is part of a "going slow" philosophy, Bat. I just can't make sense out of that, however. There are real concerns about Montero's ability to hit RHP, although he mashes lefties. He may well be a nice platoon with Morrison, for example....But as a stand alone bat, I'm not seeing it. I like the guy and we should have used him last year, but I can't see him being our "Big" add.1 month 2 weeks ago
MtGrizzly"Hunter, 39, has told teams that he wants to sign a one-year contract and play for a franchise that has a chance to win a championship." So...I'm not sure he'll even consider Seattle if he is the big add.1 month 2 weeks ago
SilentpadnaIf we had the money to sign Lester, I'd consider giving up Walker in a trade............1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571Would it be out of the realm of possibility that Saunders has healed up the issues of October? And that Jesus Montero is making a concerted effort in Peoria to get back his Mojo? And that the Ms are seriously considering standing pat? If you adjust the FanGraphs depth chart numbers for Montero as the primary DH instead of Romero, the Ms might still be the 2nd best projected team in the majors (assume Montero gets 2x the PAs and 2x the WAR and the Ms are back ahead of the RedSox). Not what I wanted out of the off-season, but better than giving up Walker or Paxton?1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossAbreu was my pick for sure. Tomas doesn't interest me the same way, but I'd prefer him to the corpse of Torii hunter.1 month 2 weeks ago
TaroI think Tomas has a shot of being the first Cuban bust in a while. The real loss was Abreu last offseason.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogSan Diego is still a pretty natural trading partner for the M's. They've been rumored to like Saunders. No problem. They also have a P in Andrew Cashner who struggles to stay healthy (but can pitch) and the same in a RHB, Carlos Quentin. Grandal is a catcher who would be a nice offset with Zunino, if Hicks isn't ready. With all the rumors of other guys, Matt....I'm still hping Craig falls to us! :) But, we have lots of young goodies to offer for Gattis. I hope we're doing it. BTW, Almonte OPS'ed 98 in San Diego last year: .265-.305-.378...about what he did for us the year prior.Good for him with the bounceback.1 month 2 weeks ago
DaddyOAgreed re: Hunter, Matt. He's only slightly better than the typical pickups the M's have made during the Zduriencik regime (apart from Cano). I'd rather have one truly good bat and go with an internal candidate rather than two Hunter-type bats. You can always seek a second bat at the trade deadline.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattDoc - I created a separate post with my thanksgiving thoughts - I missed the discussion over the holiday as I only had my phone for internet access and Klat breaks my phone (causes the browser to crash if I enter any of the posts). I could read your thread, but not comment.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattHunter is useless. Please no.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainNo worries about that Moe. The Mariners will save the big bucks for Kendrys if they continue to stick to last year's script.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogM's are in on Torii Hunter. I don't know what to think about that. For the right amount he a nice addition...but that right amount isn't too rich, and I'm afraid we will want to go big-ish on him.1 month 2 weeks ago
diderotI&#039;ve always admired Beane, even accounting for a certain amount of poetic license written into Moneyball. But I have to admit: I did not understand the $10m to Johnson (a closer!) last year. I do not understand the $10m to Butler this year (and two following). I can&#039;t imagine how either Samardzja and/or Kazmir aren&#039;t the next to go. But I&#039;m prepared to be astounded. Or maybe he&#039;s lost a little of his magic?1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianJosh Donaldson swelled large by Orc standards, so it was necessary to split him/it into a colony of prospects. Orcs prefer quantity over quality.1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianOrcs, like other cnidaria, often spawn by fission, where a specimen will grow large and healthy enough and then divide itself into 2 to 4 parts. This seems strange to us but it is commonplace in lower life forms.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattThe Oakland offense, right now, is in shambles. They are going to have to do something truly spectacular to have a competitive offense in 2015. Which means Beane is about to trade for, like, Goldschmidt or someone.1 month 2 weeks ago
benihanaBrand = Beane. And Oakland (San Fran plus San Jose) is the sixth largest market in the U.S. Trading your stars year after year? I for one would hate to be an A's fan.1 month 2 weeks ago
benihanaBrand is great. It's just that every other large market team like his is playing with a 380 buck budget to his 260. The a's just made themselves worse. This is great news for Ms fans.1 month 2 weeks ago
jemanjiExactly GLS. The A's and M's are diametrically opposed ends of the committee spectrum. Our suits do love to participate.1 month 2 weeks ago
jemanjiSTANDING O, Rick. Marquee GM, heh heh heh1 month 2 weeks ago
GLSThe interesting thing about how Billy Beane operates is that he appears to have complete control of all roster decisions, as opposed to certain other teams where any move involving any player of significance has to be approved by multiple committees.1 month 2 weeks ago
rick82Sometimes, you build a roto team so impressively, you want to slap some uniforms on it, and show it off to the world: Look what I did with $260 bucks. Beane does this every season.1 month 2 weeks ago
rick82It would be very strange to be a fan of a team whose marquee talent is the GM. Kind of like rooting for the Wizard of Oz.1 month 2 weeks ago
DaddyOHow Beane's moves will work out is unknown, but he sure takes advantage of his...advantages. He can't match payroll with many other clubs. He can't sell a superb facility to play in, he can't sell mega media opportunities for star players. But in Oakland he has created for himself a working environment where he can be nimble, quick, decisive, and revolutionary in player transactions. So he uses that to his advantage.1 month 2 weeks ago
merksLooks like the A's are in serious talks with the White Sox. Shark for A. Ramirez is the possibility. Beane's probably really good at Roto.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogWe should have jumped in on Gattis, with both feet and a huge splash, a while back. Arrrrrgggghhhh. Minus Kivlehan, Deej and Wilson...give them free run through our minors. Is 2 years of Shark worth 4 of Gattis from Atlanta's perspective? I think not, if they are going young. That's where prospects are our advantage.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainBilly is trying to trade Shark to Atlanta... for either Upton or Gattis or both. The Orcs are going to be a very different animal in 20151 month 2 weeks ago
misterjonezAnd now he's interested in Upton/Gattis, according to MLBTR. Wow. Dude deserved to have a movie made about him starring Brad Pitt.1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossBeane does make his moves. Can't believe how hard the As play for his team knowing none of them will ever really be secure there. We keep seager, they trade donaldson. We draft enough good players to not need to make those trades though... I hope. :)1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogThe Key isn't Barreto, it's Graveman. In 212 pro innings, he's given up 5 homers. FIVE. AND you get an 18 year old slugger AND a decent 3B.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogI love BB1 month 2 weeks ago
misterjonezWow. Billy Beane never rests. He gets a pair of interesting, if uninspiring arms, and a monstrous teenager in Barreto who hit .311/.384/.481 for a 141 WRC+ as an 18 year old in low A ball. He also gets Lawrie, whose performance has never quite matched his hype (and his health has never been a strength, either), so there's definitely upside there. Very interesting trade...Beane gives up one of the most valuable, club-controlled players in the entire game in Donaldson for a few rolls of the dice. That guy is amazing.1 month 2 weeks ago
merksHere are the details. Josh Donaldson to Blue Jays, A's get Brett Lawrie, pitchers Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin, SS Franklin Barreto1 month 2 weeks ago
merksA's just traded Donaldson to Toronto and get 3 back including Lawrie.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainOK... I'm back from Black Friday. I made my hard choices, and I spent MY money. I know it was hard, but I spent MONEY. It's your turn Mather and Jack! Spend money. Make the hard choices and spend. You said you would - now DO IT! Earn your paycheck, and spend.1 month 2 weeks ago
misterjonezYour point about geography is well taken, Gordon, but I think the FO needs to be proactive in the PR department. They don't have to say they outbid AZ for him, but they should make it clear that he was one of many players they were actively pursuing. As it is the silence is deafening, which is fine when the primo FA's are still on the board, but that is no longer the case. Things are getting tighter in the quest for a MOTO bat, for sure. As for the Betancourt aftermath...that point seems to have a bit more traction with me, Ice.1 month 2 weeks ago
IcebreakerXMaybe a little bitter from Yuniesky too...1 month 2 weeks ago
Gordon GrossNot sure why people think he was willing to come here. The Ms may have been around the fringes because he wasted to go someplace warm, with a large Spanish speaking population for comfort. AZ provided both of those things. We're in southern Alaska, remember? Some deals you just can't make.1 month 2 weeks ago
misterjonezI'm going to say we definitely should have gotten Tomas at that contract. $11-12mil/year for a right-handed power hitter, entering his prime, with professional experience and aplomb, who could play positions of need for this team, is too much to pass up. It doesn't take too much for him to earn that contract, even if he's DHing.1 month 3 weeks ago
diderotTomas: but can he run, field and throw like Cespedes? The market determined he was worth the contract he got. Hard to believe that everyone else was wrong...and the M&#039;s would have been wiser to outbid that market.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon Gross12 miles per year ain't bad. He only has to hit like, well, cespedes I guess to be worth that chunk of change. Most people like him better than cespedes. Tomas off the market shrinks the bats further. One more musical chair down.1 month 3 weeks ago
IcebreakerXTomas to D'Backs for 6/69 according to @JesseSanchezMLB1 month 3 weeks ago
PlawsableI don&#039;t know that Davis would be a big improvement over Morrison. Sure, if he hit 50 again he clearly would be. Morrisons career OBP is .011 higher and he hit .333/.368/.478/.846 vs LHP last year in 95PA while not showing a big split in his career. I don&#039;t expect him to do that well vs LHP next year but overall it is hard to say Davis would be better for the team and it&#039;s needs. OBP and VS LHP, the 2 big needs of the team, Morrison has mostly looked better.1 month 3 weeks ago
GLSAny thoughts out there about Chris Davis? Little blurb in MLBTR that the Marlins may be looking at him. I know right-handed power is the flavor of the month around here, but Davis is one year removed from a 50 HR season, which is something I'm pretty sure I'd like to see on my club irrespective of handedness.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossI like our guys too, GLS - but we can't play everybody. Miller and Taylor play the same position, and neither can move anywhere else in the infield since those positions are blocked off, and if Miller goes to the OF then he's displacing one of Ackley or Saunders - assuming they aren't displaced by a free agent or trade. Plus DJ and Kivlehan are coming in a year or so, further crowding certain positions, and Marte REALLY can't play anywhere if the infield is full... some guys will have to go. Just get the best player back in any trade, and make sure it's for more than a year if ya can. Also, make sure to trade ONLY the lesser players from the bunch. ;-) Be psychic Jack!1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogMy bad. It was Divish I read1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571I said Grichuk, but meant Piscotty - Grichuk hasn't played 1B. Piscotty was a 3B switched to the OF. His speed and arm makes him right for RF, but he'd make a nice big target at 1B, too.1 month 3 weeks ago
GLSI guess this makes me lame, but I can't get excited about trading any of our guys. Miller, Ackley, Taylor, Saunders - I like 'em all. I'd be a terrible GM.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571I'm still hoping for Kemp + Gattis, but I also agree that a young backup 1B/OF type would be insurance against Morrison getting injured. Souza or Terdoslavich fit that bill, as does Randall Grichuk. Maybe Morban or Choi will surprise us, or Jesus can reconstruct (resurrect?) his career. But that's an area that still gives pause, especially if the Ms trade Ackley to get the RH power.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Divish's blog is interesting, but his saying the Dodgers are primarily looking for starters for Kemp may be a little off. They'd certainly take 'Kuma, but their pitching prospects, especially Zach Lee, Chris Reed, and Julio Urias, are as good as anyone's. They could be mildly interested in a depth piece like Erasmo (especially if he continues to pitch well in winter ball), but they're more interested in their infield issues, the depleted Farm, their bullpen, and getting a Catcher that can hit better than the .577 OPS Ellis put up last season. The last part they'll have to talk to the Yankees about, but Taylor, one of the M's NitroPenners, and some stock for their Farm should be of interest.1 month 3 weeks ago
DaddyOmoe, where are you reading a Geoff Baker blog? I thought he didn't do M's stuff anymore for the Times.1 month 3 weeks ago
DaddyOBold talk came from Kevin Mather and Jack Zduriencik right after the season ended. By now we're used to this schtick. The M's are looking for offense. Not one bat, two bats. Payroll's going up. We're serious this time. Really. Really? Then why have you put yourself in a loser of a musical chairs position, with only a couple o' chairs left and more than a couple of teams remain, all getting desperate just like you. The decisive teams, those skilled in offseason moves, those laser focused on getting what they needed, have all acted, have all locked in their chairs, are all laughing as you're left out again. They're used to it too.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Souza should be available for a BP arm or two or a nice prospect - I think Ackley would be an overpay. And Souza would be gotten easier in a package - If Fister and Souza could come for Ackley/Taylor + Medina + Guaipe +Guerrero/Morban it would be pretty fair - Souza and Guerrero straight up would be worth trying also - the Nats are set in the OF now, but Werth is getting older, and a top OF prospect about 2 years away would pique their interest, I bet. Guerrero is 4 1/2 years younger than Souza, so it makes for a nice "stash" trade of an older, blocked prospect for one who isn't yet Rule 5 eligible.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogSouza would be fine and dandy for me. Ackley gets him, I bet. Who do you value more?1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogBaker's blog today is a good one. Basically he says that Walker isn't going and Iwakuma won't go for Cespedes (and reading between the lines,, he won't go for anybody with a bat). OK...that leaves Ackley/Saunders/Miller/Taylor as MLB trade pieces...and a RP or two. Rodney? No mention....but I would believe we might swap him out for a one year bat. But that only really works with Boston. The one year bats they have are Cespedes, Napoli and Victorino. Ergo, Doc's thread above about Napoli.1 month 3 weeks ago
PlawsableOk so we can play the part of the Dodgers and Atlanta can be the Red Sox but I want Freeman too. 2 Uptons and a Freeman workable for you?1 month 3 weeks ago
PlawsableThe way I see it they need a guy you can bank on .350+ OBP. Then add another .320+ OBP. A guy like Souza, Gattis or Betts where you think he has a chance to be a .350+ guy down the road does look even better as the second add.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossYup. Gattis is a second addition, not a headliner - more a Logan Morrison than a Kyle Seager. I still want him... just not ONLY him.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattagreed on not dealing Kuma unless blown away...and agreed that the Mariners don't need to purge their prospects to get better...but Souza isn't enough by himself...we need at least one money in the bank slugger and THEN supporting pieces (Souza, Gattis...something like that). We need someone that teams FEAR to hit behind Cano and make the line-up more intimidating.1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianPreach it Taro. That's some good stuff. Kuma is washed up in the same way that Jared Weaver is washed up: Not really.1 month 3 weeks ago
TaroIwakuma's healthy season in 2013 was worth 7 WAR according to baseball-ref as he outperformed his peripherals with RA. Unlikely hes that good again, but he should be significantly better than Cespedes, and has far more long term value to our franchise. I flat would not deal him unless someone overwhelms us.1 month 3 weeks ago
TaroDealing Iwakuma would be a mistake. Elite Japanese pitchers have a tendency to age REALLY well and usually give their home teams a discount (loyalty). Look at Hiroki Kuroda and Koji Uehara. Its a pattern in the NPB as well. The pitchers that don't get fatally injured last forever. Ms should buy low and extend him for 3 years.1 month 3 weeks ago
TaroMs seem to be only a couple pieces away. I'd focus on Souza from the Nats and skip on the overpriced vets.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon Gross$-per-WAR is going up with the new TV contracts, remember. With inflation combined with WAR cost adjustments, contracts like Cano's won't be nearly as onerous they "feel" like they should be from today's vantage point. Seager's could be an absolute bargain if he keeps playing like this. The guys I wanna pay are in their 20s still - Cano was the exception. Right now we're paying Felix and Kyle for their most productive years (in theory) and when both guys are at the ends of their contracts, the New Guys (Walker, Paxton, DJ, Alex Jackson, etc) will be getting close to getting paid. The timing is fine for me.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossEconomics are getting weird in baseball, moe. Austin Jackson + Fernando Rodney pays for Justin Upton all by itself. Where you don't really want to be is in the middle, paying 10 or 12 million a season to a replacement-level dude. If you can pay your 4-5 WAR vets their appropriate salary, then rely on club-controlled guys for your 2-WAR contributions you'll be way better off in this market. The Red Sox are trying to go that way. Stars and scrubs is more versatile and valuable than ever - assuming you have the right stars and a healthy farm system year after year.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogIf we wanted is the key phrase, G. That's two $16-$20M salaries to add (plus Seager's). That's pretty optimistic for the M's. But if you could extend J for the 2 extra years it would be worth thinking about, at least.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossJustin likes playing with his brother. If you're in it for the long haul on Justin and you want to try to extend/ re-sign him, then adding his brother to the team (while the Braves pay for at least 2/3 of BJ's ridiculous salary) isn't a bad way to go about it. Might just be the cost of doing business. We can have a hole in CF if the rest of the roster is stocked. MOST teams have a lineup hole at a glove position (or two) while we have a C who can drop 20 bombs in his sleep and a pair of SS that should net us at least one plus bat for the position. We could do it if we wanted.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogGot it Matt, some how missed that. Sorry. Paying three years of BJ to get 1 year of his brother is pretty steep, all the same. You would look at the trade guys as exchange for Gattis.1 month 3 weeks ago
benihanaJon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi - #Mariners have had trade talks on multiple RH outfielders, including Matt Kemp, Yoenis Cespedes, and Justin Upton. They want to land one. - #RedSox have been interested in Hisashi Iwakuma before; unclear if #Mariners would part with him in a Yoenis Cespedes trade. - If Mariners land one of the three, middle of their lineup becomes Cano-3, Kemp/Upton/Cespedes-4, Seager-5. This is what they need.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattNotice I said Los Dos Upton...not jsut Gattis...Gattis and Justin Upton (and a very expensive paperweight)1 month 3 weeks ago
rick82M's will not trade Kuma or Walker. I know everyone says you never can have too much pitching, but in the M's case, I think they truly believe it. Walker is ML ready now, unlike the days Upton was a Diamondback. Kuma could go if a Fister swapped his place somehow. But he's cheap insurance right now. Anyway...bottom line is Walker is Not Going Anywhere.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogSteep price for Gattis, Matt. I'm assuming that BJ Upton is just expensive and terrible. OK, a bounceback is possible but I think much of baseball has abandoned that thought. Elias/Taylor AND $16M (or $6M with the 2/3) per for Gattis is steep. It would take a lot of reimbursement, as you said. Ah, what the heck...That one I would pass on.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattif we have to take BJ Upton to get Evan Gattis, e.g., they can eat 2/3 of his contract and they don't get Walker. If that's a way to avoid giving up Walker...I'm willing to give them Elias and Taylor for Los Dos Upton and Gattis and some reimbursement...though I agree that is less than ideal.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571With Atlanta, I'm just afraid the posturing on Walker for Upton is leading to a "well, if you take B.J., too, we can talk!" sort of negotiation. If they trade BOTH Gattis and Justin Upton without including B.J. with one or the other, they have little leverage. But the Ms (finally) really don't have an albatross contract to swap back, so unless Liberty Media wants to pay most of B.J.'s remaining contract (at LEAST $30M+), that would make me pass and look at Boston. But reluctantly, because their media will not stand for a fair trade or underpay - the Sox MUST win any trade.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571I can't see the Dodgers keeping Kemp at this point. Crawford has a history with Friedman, and had a decent 2nd half. They aren't trading Puig, and they want to promote Pederson. I'm in accord with Heyman (this once) that if the Dodgers can get more by trading Kemp than by effectively DFAing Ethier, that's what they will do. Apparently nobody wants Ethier, so the die is being cast. They will want a RH hitter (not necessarily a power hitter) for balance, but with Puig, Uribe, Van Slyke, and Turner, they're not that bad off - certainly not like the Braves being RH. And Taylor is a pretty good RH hitter in any case, just without much power.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571I'd swap Upton and Craig vis a vis your list, assuming in his case that trade value is ~reasonable (i.e., no Walker or Paxton or Zunino or Miller for me). I'm looking at pairs as well -- 1) Kemp and Gattis; 2) Upton and Gattis; 3) Rios and Craig; 4) Rios and Napoli -- that has one big salary and one moderate one. I think the Ms need to look at pitching as well, so unless we can do that one-stop trade and have payroll left for Fister, I don't think that all holes get filled otherwise. And Boston will insist on 'Kuma for Craig or Napoli, so I see little hope there, personally, unless we also get Fister in trade or sign Chris Young soon.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Can I convince you, Moe, that Terdoslavich is Van Slyke two years ago? Getting old, blocked, but great MiLB numbers, and can play all of the corners adequately, with 3B the weakest (but that's where the Ms are strongest). I'd almost want him more than VS or Souza, since he could come in a package, which lowers his cost. And I certainly like him better than Cespedes, because he's shown the willingness to adapt, which I believe is a "hidden" talent that is undervalued.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogBTW: Of the players we've written about, #1 on my Get Parade is a subsidized Kemp. But unless the Dodgers grab a RH bat somewhere I think they end up keeping him. #2 would be Gattis (who gives you 4 cheap years). #3 would be Craig #4 Upton (1 yr) #5 = Napoli (1 yr) #6 is Cespedes (who will absolutely be traded) (I prefer not to get a one year guy and have to do it all over again) #7 is Victorino. Have I missed somebody we've discussed? Oh...Trumbo is somewhere at 6-8 as he's 2 years. Ethier/Van Slyke is doable but a 2-fer as is any Nationals trade.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogI've tried to edit those swaps out because they are more complicated. We have 2 RH bats just about here in Kivlehan and Deej and a LoMO who still is open to question. Getting more than a rental bat so we don't have to do it all again would be great. FA's? Cruz and Tomas? Cruz will be expensive and demand years 37 and 38 and Tomas is going to end up getting Kemp like dollars (with subsidy). I don't mind losing Ackley or 'Kuma (if he won't resign). I do mind losing Miller/Taylor/Kivlehan/Deej. Remember that Boston had already added Rusney Castillo. They have some players to shed. 'Kuma gets you your bat of choice (Cespedes/Craig/Napoli (perhaps)..if you hurry. If you could work out an Ackley+ lots deal for Zimmerman you could move 'Kuma. Boston has mashed up everything.1 month 3 weeks ago
GLSI would love to get Souza.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogZimmerman too, Bat. I wondered exactly the same type of thing. Zimmerman is a one year guy, however (2 for Fister). But in tandem with Souza (who can play CF) is there some deal possible there. It would begin with Ackley, I think, and then cost something in prospects. Actually 'Kuma and Ackley (they need a 2B) might get you close to Zimmerman and Souza. Kind of a trade of similar pieces....but you add a RH bat who can play CF. We would have to value Souza more than Ackley, however. if you had already added a Kemp then that might work. But, I still figure we add one bat (perhaps trading out Ackley as a 2B), a Chris young type arm and then hold the fort until a hot young bat moves out of Tacoma.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Do the deal with Atlanta, then deal for Fister, then see who comes calling for Iwakuma and what they're offering. Suddenly the Ms are in the catbird seat!1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Fister would probably require Taylor + Guerrero + ??? - about the same as Kemp - but getting him back would be justice served.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Getting Fister back would make me feel better about trading 'Kuma, in any case.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Interesting. Nationals are rumored to be shopping Doug Fister, apparently to get in on Max Scherzer. Wonder what the Nationals would want for Fister and Souza - too much probably - but their only real needs are maybe an IF and some bullpen arms, and then prospects for their Farm. Maybe the Ms could reverse the Fister to Detroit trade and send some middling prospects to the Nats for Fister? Marte, Morban, Pike, and Pagan for Fister and Souza? Probably not enough, but fun to think about!1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogVictorino's career Home/Away numbers are .283-.351-.434/.271-.331-.428. That's .785 vs. .759. He's not made a career as a home bat. He's had 5 more homers in 50 more PA's on the road over his career. He's hit 15 less doubles on the road but 12 more triples. Basically he has no Home/Away split. I suppose it is possible that he has faced more lefties on the road than at home over his career, but it seems unlikely to be too much of a difference. In 1054 starts he's hit 107 home runs. Were he to start 130 times for Seattle I suppose he might get Safeco'ed into 10 homers rather than 13.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571In the offer to the Braves earlier, I'd also ask for an arm, preferably Williams Perez, coming back along with Upton, Gattis, and Terdoslavich. Then it looks to me that it balances quite nicely and meets needs on both sides.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571If Napoli costs as much as Upton in prospects and salary commitment combined, and Craig has twice that owed, which will take even better prospects to buy down, I just don't see the Ms going for them first while Gattis remains out there. Gattis and Napoli appear interchangeable for the M's needs, but Gattis is pre-arb! And between Upton and Kemp there's also a toss-up, with one requiring a one-year commitment, the other more in the best case, and for 4 years. Dealing with Atlanta, even somewhat of an overpay (pace Gordon) seems both smarter and more in the M's pattern.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Given the choices out there, and the Braves' needs, I'd still be willing to solve their 3B problem with D.J. for Upton, with more on each side to balance (Erasmo in particular), but I can't see Upton getting Walker. D.J. is the max I could see (or take), and there'd have to be other pieces coming back. Ackley + D.J. + Morban/Choi + Erasmo + Marte for Upton, Gattis, and Terdoslavich still seems about right to me - and it's one-stop shopping! Let the Sawx solve their pitching problems elsewhere (probably by trading Bogaerts for Hamels). But that would be only one Large contract for only one year, which feels like it might be in the M's wheelhouse.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571If the Ms can't get Gattis for Ackley, then as the fallback Medina or Furbush + prospect for Napoli and some of the $16M he's owed - how much determines which prospect (the BoSox need relievers as well as starters). Still think the Ms can get Kemp for Taylor + Guerrero + ??? not too damaging (Wilhelmsen/Medina/Furbush + Marlette?) and still get ~1/3 of his remaining money. Craig would be a third option, but could they buy low, or would Boston try to hold out? Craig's got $33M remaining - quite a gamble unless the BoSox pick up some of it - again, at what price? Would relievers do it, or do they demand a starter?1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattVictorino will not hit .240 if a Mariner. His "power" disappears at the Safe, as do all of his ground ball hits. Folks...players like Victorino and Craig ar ebad fits for the Mariners because, to generate XBH in Safeco, you can't have "middling" power...especially if you're a righty...Victorino will not hit lefties well as a Mariner...he'll hit into a blizzard of routine fly outs to left. He hits lefties well in Philly and Boston...two of the best parks to hit in as a right handed batter.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogI would do that Matt. Napoli would be a great #4 hitter, if he becomes available. No discussion of that so far. But on Victorino: He hits lefties better than anybody we have, he hits RHP as well as Ackley and he's a good glove CF/COF. That would add about $20 to payroll, before Seager's new contract. Giving up Iwakuma makes it possible. I'm trading Ackley afterwards, btw.1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianBoston is a weird team. They throw out good ball players like last year's trash, and then new good ballplayers agree to sign with them. Lester is probably meeting with them right now.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattI imagine Boston wants pitching if they trade guys. Iwakuma and a prospect for Napoli and Cespedes! :D1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossNapoli would a fine 1-year placeholder (and producer, unlike our other placeholders). Depends who's going out to get him as to how I feel about adding him, but in theory I'm totally on board with that.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossI don't think it'll take that much for Upton, moj. Maybe if there's a bidding war. There's NO way it should take Walker to get a year of Upton. It is technically a year of Upton plus the QO pick in the draft (because we would almost certainly give him the QO and he would almost certainly decline) but Walker's worth more than that. DJ probably is as well, honestly. I don't think anybody's top-2 prospect is going out to get Upton (and DJ is our #2-ish prospect at the moment, with Walker and Paxton graduated). Upton is likely more in the Elias + Taylor conversation. if you felt like bidding up you could send out Saunders too.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattThat said...Napoli is a heck of an idea...don't know why I didn't think of that1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattVictorino is a far worse baseball player than Michael Saunders even half injured. Victorino doesn't help us one iota.1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianNapoli!!! That's an awesome idea.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogI think the Seager deal probably gretly reduces the chance that we do a LT Tomas deal (I like him but never felt he was our guy) and even somewhat reduces the odds that we do a Kemp deal (If LA is really trading him). Atlanta will have to come off of their huge Upton demand if he is going to be ours.Cruz? We may fall back to that position, I suppose. Gimme Craig and we'll negotiate from there. As argued, Victorino helps he this year...and I would like Gattis quite a bit. Cespedes? Might be a straight-up swap for "Kuma there. I'm not sure I'm in on that.1 month 3 weeks ago
ThirteenTrades too gutsy to happen, 2014 edition: Hisashi Iwakuma and Fernando Rodney for Yoenis Cespedes and Mike Napoli.1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianYessirree. The youthful years of Walker is a bit much for one year of Upton. How about Hultzen and Peterson? Braves get two top ten type prospects to reboot their rebuild, we get the bat of doom, plus a qualifying offer, and an inside track on signing the guy next year. I'm not attached to Hultzen and D.J. yet, and I'm more excited about Choi and Kiv anyway. Or didn't Doc already say all that?1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossGood call Matt - morning math fail on my end! I'm actually impressed that they locked him in for that long. The Ms really believe in him, and didn't go half-way trying to get one year after arb or something. 3rd base auditions are closed. DJ, Patrick and the rest had better hit enough for a different corner if they plan to stay in teal.1 month 3 weeks ago
MtGrizzlyThe Red Sox may have to move both Cespedes and Napoli. Two RH bats with power, one LF and one 1B/DH. Both free agents after 2015. Hmmmmm..1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Matt5/55 from last year would have been the same as 4/52 from this year...4/52 from this year would break down 6/10/14/22 - which is MORE expensive than what we paid. We didn't lose any money at all i signing Seager now instead of lat year.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossLast offseason, Seager's comps were Kipnis and Carpenter in terms of extensions (in the 5/55 range). Not getting it done last year cost us about 20 million to get it up to 7/100. Better late than never - as long as the Ms don't pinch pennies and Kyle Seager doesn't steal all our cookies a la Freddie Garcia's arb victory back in the day. The Ms would NEVER... *sigh* Welcome to being a life-long mariner, Kyle! You da man. Stay that way for 7 more years, wouldja?1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattwithout giving up Walker1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattGet me Tomas and Upton if we can do it.1 month 3 weeks ago
benihanaHanley in at 4/88 with 5th year vest $22. 5/110. For me I'd rather Tomas at 7/100 - but that's not a bad deal for Boston.1 month 3 weeks ago
benihanaHanley and Panda to Bo-Sox. They have some large log-jams now. I'd do Cespedes for Iwakuma. I'm very leery of Iwakuma - I think he's done. No margin for decline, certainly not outside of Safeco. Moving him now is selling high.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogIf Upton costs us Ackley, I'm fine. Not if he costs us Walker.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogLookee what we got done! The Mariners and third baseman Kyle Seager are on the verge of completing a seven-year, $100MM extension, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. The contract contains an option for an eighth season which could be worth as much as $20MM, depending on performance escalators, Passan adds. Seager’s deal is pending a physical. He is represented by Jet Sports Management’s Andrew Lowenthal. YES!1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianAlso, Seager for President. Clutchness and grit in 2028!1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianUpton Matt. Say it with me. UP-TON. And not Kate or BJ.1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianSheesh. Went into the woods for a week and the Orcs sign Country Breakfast, Hanley is the new Bosox flavor of the month, the Braves hold a yard sale, and the Fleet finally arrives at Mariner Brainstorm. It's a lot to take in.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattfind me Yasmany Tomas or Matt Kemp and perhaps Evan Gattis...anything else is worthless to me. WORTH...LESS.1 month 3 weeks ago
benihanaWhooohoo! Off-season priority #1 is checked off - that's a huge extension for Seager, and a reported vesting 8th year? Awesome. Locked him up through his prime. Now go finish up with priority #2 (OF - RHB - Yasmany please) and I'm a happy camper.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattVictorino would be awful in Seattle. I'd be very surprised if he hit .240 here.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogI'm laughing Matt! The problem out there is that only Kemp is an "elite" type hitter still remaining (well, Craig, too...but here we differ). Every other RHB has some question mark. Upton is a one year guy and costs us (evidently) Walker. No thank you. Gattis has promise but it's not quite sure he's actually available. Van Slyke you don't like. Like you, what I'm trying to do is make us better. Were Frank Robinson available I would be all over him. But based on what is out there (and the M's conservative approach), what can we get that helps? Victorino helps. Craig helps. Cespedes probably does. That's it. Get me Kemp and Gattis and don't give up the bank and I'm a happy camper. But sometimes you have to get what you can get. We have young MLB-boomer-ish type bats on the way. A Victorino helps us today but doesn't block guys in a year or two. I'm good with that.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattSeager reportedly close to 7 year, $100 million extension1 month 3 weeks ago
rick82Hey, Jonsie, just wanted to say I enjoyed your post about Upton. You were really making the case there.1 month 3 weeks ago
rick82Love it, Daddy O. "Would you believe that right this minute, right this very minute, two of the most feared right handed sluggers are ready to sign with us, Chief? Right this minute!" "I find that a little difficult to believe, Max." "Would you believe one of the top sluggers from 2012 and a Cuban batboy?"1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattdang moe...what is your bizarre obsession with mediocre hitters coming off bad years? If Victorino and Craig is the best we can do...this has been a horrendous offseason.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogEvery RHB that comes off the board makes the next guy more expensive. I will take heart that we were close to V. Martinez. Now get a deal done, Z. If Panda signs with Boston I'm going hard for Victorino and Craig. Victorino still creams LHP and can still patrol CF if called upon. He's a one year rental, however. We've been talking about two-'fer deals with Atlanta and LA: Those deals may be too rich (Atl. demanding Walker) or unlikely (LA keeping Kemp). Ethier and Van Slyke is doable, too, as discussed. Victorino is actually some kind of a hitter vL. .303-.372-.503 over his career. And except for last year when he had 43 PA's vL (still hitting .325) he's been at those numbers or above for each of the past 5 seasons. He's not terrible against RHP either. And he's won 4 GG's. He's decently expensive...but he's pretty good. Cespedes can be had in Boston, too. There's some trading Karma available there.1 month 3 weeks ago
misterjonezI'm guessing Hanley really wants to return to Boston, and that any deal that's even close will get rejected since he's got a reasonable one on the table from his original team. But yeah, we had better have offered more than 5/90 or I'm disinclined to give credence to the big talk of adding bats this offseason. I assume (perhaps naively) that we did, in fact, beat the rumored 5/90, for whatever that's worth.1 month 3 weeks ago
DaddyOI don't feel like writing it this evening, but I can imagine a nice comedic routine about the M's offseason acquisitions with Kevin Mathers playing The Chief and Jack Zduriencik playing Maxewll Smart as they do the old "Would You Believe..." schtick. Jack starts the routine with names like Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and ends up with two pickles and an Elmer Fudd cap.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossWish we'd see some movement on the Upton and/or Gattis front. You'd think we were trying to get our offseason moves approved by a committee or something.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossBuster Olney ranked Seager #4 amongst all major league third basemen. We really should have extended him last year like I wanted. ;) Better get that done this offseason before Arb.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon Gross5/90 for Hanley? Jeez, I would have been thrilled with that. Our 2B/3B being filled with good players already may have dissuaded him - although we would have let him play SS for a few years first. So we're down to Kemp and a secondary add now? Let's not let all the musical chairs get filled, shall we?1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattI'd have some interest in getting John Jaso back in Seattle to BC, FWIW1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattSupposedly, Seattle is still interested in Tomas...hanging around the periphery on that front.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattwow...I thought Hanley would be much more expensive than that...and now I'm annoyed that we didn't beat that offer. We *MUST* get Kemp. The small potato stuff (Craig, Van Slyke...vomit) is not going to cut it.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogSaw that. Two things may result: Craig may be very available (especially if they get Panda, too) and you may be able to move and get Ethier/Van Slyke (LA may be tempted to keep Kemp until they fill a RH bat need).1 month 3 weeks ago
merksLooks like Hanley is close to signing with the BoSox. Five years, $90 million is the rumored price.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogAgree on that, Matt. My thought was that Freiman/Davis/Butler rotate through 1B/DH....Moss is int he OF. Vogt seems odd man out to me.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattand FWIW, the As have way too many guys to play first base for Davis to see significant time. Freiman, Moss, Vogt, Davis, Jaso, Butler...A couple of those3 guys can SORT OF play the outfield (Vogt comes to mind) and Jaso can be the back-up catcher maybe. But...Butler has the DH spot completely locked down and will probably only occasionally get benched against the toughest right-handed bullpen match-ups and when he needs a day off. So that leaves about 15% of the DH at bats and the first base at bats to go to Moss, Freiman, Davis and occasionally Jaso...with Vogt probably relegated mostly to the outfield.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattall that was NL...he'll die in the AL...too many holes in his swing.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogI've always thought Ike Davis was better than a decent guy to have. Hits lefties like a rusty gate, but his career #'s vs. RHP are .254-.357-.456 (.813). LoMo's are .247-.336-.436 (.768). Even in a "down" year, Davis will was at .765 OPS last year, vR. LoMo was at .695! (His year was carried by his 95 vL PA's: .333-.368-.478). Basically they got him for free, too. Watch them platoon him with Nate Freiman.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattmeh...I don't think he'll do much.1 month 3 weeks ago
merksA's acquire Ike Davis for international slot and cash.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571I think Condor is working back into the good graces, starting with the agent change. He will be expensive for a 4th OF, but if he is the LF (e.g., if Ackley goes for Gattis), I think the Ms will keep him around because of the versatility. With Gattis (~~) able to play LF, Condor could move to CF if needed - not optimum, maybe, but more than adequate until Jones or Kivlehan could be summoned. I agree that the Ms should (and will) put Kivlehan in the OF part-time starting in ST. He'll put in the work and will be pretty good by the AS break, and will get better. All you could ask for.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogOne Cardinals' site giggles over the acquisition of Ty Kelly. Sigh: BTW, unless you guys figure than James Jones is on the opening day roster or that Bloomie gets the role, we still need a 4th OF who Mac will be willing to use in CF. That was certainly not true with Ackley or Saunders, and one of those guys will be gone. Kemp would do, not so Upton. Ethier has had nearly 120 CF starts over the last two years, BTW. Brad Miller, given the opportunity, would could handle CF, too. Kivlehan will get some early Tacoma CF time...but we need one for Seattle. Perhaps we keep Saunders and he goes there. Not Jones, please. I've soured....1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571And, as I noted in another shout, a deal for Kemp will probably also cost at least 1 bullpen arm; which could mean another chunk off the final amount if it's Wilhelmsen, and a trim if it's Furbush. I'm making the assumption that Erasmo is gone, either to Atlanta in trade or, being out of options, is traded for a propect; that Ackley makes the most sense for the Braves in trade for Gattis; and that Taylor would be an MLB piece in a trade for Kemp. I assume any remaining pieces will be prospects (Guerrero, Morban, Choi), even if Terdoslavich would come with Gattis.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Just using the TNT tool -- -- and adding Gattis ($0.5M - using another FA as proxy), Kemp ($16M - using another FA as proxy), Young ($7M), and HanRam ($22M), and then manually subtracting Ackley, Taylor, and Erasmo ($3.8M total) gives ~$137M. Take HanRam's $22M out and that gives ~$115M, which is $8M more than the $107M. The TNT tool uses the $5M figure for Seager and the $7M figure for Iwakuma. Given the offers for Martin and VMart, I think there's more than $8M in headroom, in any case.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattnot sure where you get 8 mil, Bat...Gattis is cheap but Kemp at 16 mil, Young at 5-6 mil, Iwakuma at 7 mil, Seager at 5 mil...did you factor those in? I get roughly 14 mil up from 107 if we add just Kemp/Gattis.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571And after Mather promised substantial budget increases, $8M wouldn't be substantial in my mind.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Well, If The Ms got Kemp and Gattis and re-signed Young, it'd be a dandy off-season, for sure. But it's Christmastime and I've always got to hope Santa's bringing me that new Volvo XC-90 with the 450HP hybrid drive train that gets 34mpg, even while I'm still driving my 2003 Honda Pilot!1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogToo many moving parts, Bat. Hope for one big guy....or Gattis plus1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571If Wilhelmsen went in trade for Kemp, that takes another $2.1M off, Furbush $1.0M, Medina $0.5M. In any case, I really believe it's doable. And if Chris Young would sign to smooth innings, I continue to think rotating Elias, Walker, and Paxton to Tacoma for 10+ day stints of 4-5 inning starts to keep their totals down would be workable. Then Young could skip starts in places like Texas as well. BOAPW! (apologies to Prof. Pangloss and Voltaire).1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571$30M increase, not $20M - typo.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571I put the numbers in the TNT payroll tool (since it doesn't do trades, I used a Chone Figgins FA signing @ $16M as a proxy for Kemp - I know, SICK!). With HanRam @ $22M, Kemp @ $16M, and Chris Young @ $7M, it totals to $141.1M. Subtract Ackley, Taylor, and Erasmo, and it looks like ~$137M - a $20M increase over the $107M end number last year that Mather implied was the starting point for increases.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattif we could get the Dodgers to front-load their us like 15 mil in 2015, 12 mil in 2016 and 8 mil in 2017 and then off the hook thereafter...we could ease the transition, from a payroll perspective...soften the blow to the finances on the front side.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogLA will have a RH bat in the pipeline, perhaps Hanley, if they are really trading Kemp. Matt is right. We get only one big ticket guy. That's it.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattI hope you're right Bat...because a rational analysis of the team at this point says it's stupid not to spend big and win now...Cano and Felix in their primes for only so maturing and just got valuable play-off race experience, attendance tentatively rising...if you were ever going to fight hard...this would be the time.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Gattis is still pre-arb, so his price is the trade cost (Ackley?), but little initially to the payroll. If Kemp came at a payroll cost of $16M (~2/3-1/3 split), and HanRam comes in at the MLBTR prediction of $22M (AAV), that's a $38M add. From where they're at now, that looks like <$140M - but they would still have another signing (Chris Young) and extensions to Seager and Iwakuma to add to that, if it worked out like I'd like.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571It would depend on how much subsidy the Ms could get with Kemp, but the amount they bid on VMart and Martin makes me believe they may be willing to go near $140M at least -- they seem to understand the amount spent on Cano and Felix will be wasted unless they go for it starting now. And that would be enough.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571And a bench of Saunders (OF); Terdoslavich (1B/3B/COF); Bloomquist (IF/OF); and Sucre (C) - with Bloomquist and Sucre ceding to Kivlehan and Hicks by the AS Break.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattGetting both Ramirez and Kemp is not possible...unless the Mariners suddenly decide they want to spend 150 million on payroll.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Meanwhile, we can dream of a Jackson-HanRam-Cano-Kemp-Seager-Gattis-Morrison-Zunino-Miller lineup laying waste to the AL.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Yes, Moe - like they've realized they will have problems if they move Kemp from RF that might outweigh the loss of the RH bat. Would they turn around and trade for a cheaper, younger guy? Sign Rios? Dunno - but somebody ought to keep whispering "2016 - Guerrero-Pederson-Puig" in the ears down there! And "Taylor and Gordon stealing 40 bases apiece and turning DPs nightly" as well!1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571And I still think Terdoslavich is just where Scott Van Slyke was a year or so ago - getting old for a prospect, blocked at his best position, able to play other positions adequately, good MiLB numbers that translate to MLB effectiveness, and ready to put the hurt on pitchers if he can get a chance. The injuries to Kemp, Ethier, and Crawford gave SVS his chance. I'd really like to see Terdoslavich get a chance in Seattle while Kivlehan and DJ get their ABs in Tacoma. And Morrison has not been durable - do we really want to try Montero there as a starter if Morrison goes down?1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogInteresting report on Kemp. Almost like something is in the works.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattKemp...get me KEMP...if he can be got for anything approaching a reasonable cost...then get Gattis to DH/BC and call it good (I don't think we can afford Hanley after getting Kemp). Kemp, Gattis, Chris Young and maybe one other SP option on the cheap.1 month 3 weeks ago
GLSI had no idea the extra option year was even a possibility.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571The fact the Ms are being aggressive and not just waiting at the altar for a RH hitter looks like it's having an effect. Now let's hear the news from Atlanta! Getting Kemp would scotch Upton, but not necessarily Gattis (which would be my preferred outcome). Then sign Hanley (assuming a SS goes to LA in the trade) and the roster/lineup is remade! Sign Chris Young for innings management and let's get going!1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Jon Heyman now reporting Kemp is most likely Dodger OF to get traded.--- --- Verrrry interesting! Maybe the Ms offers to VMart and Martin and the Upton news has got the Dodgers thinking?1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattwell that us time to evaluate him.1 month 3 weeks ago
Tacoma RainPer Dutton, Hultzen has been given an extra option year due to all his injuries.1 month 3 weeks ago
GLSMostly no on Morse. He can't really play any position and I hate his slo-mo swing when he's on deck.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattI'm out on Morse at that price. He's a prime candidate for catastrophic age-out scenarios IMHO. I am not eager to part with Walker, but if we need to part with Walker to get both Gattis and Upton...I think it's a move that works. If we can expent Upton and if we have a plan for filling the rotation.1 month 3 weeks ago
misterjonezIf Atlanta wants more for Upton than they got for Heyward, forget it. If what they really mean is 'the same, given the fact that he costs twice as much salary this year, which effectively means *more*' then try to work it out. The thing to remember about Upton is that he will net a high draft pick next year, which can't be discounted entirely. You can break it down to dollars/pick if you want, but that draft slot could very well net a starter down the road. Still, if we're going to break the bank on a blockbuster, go get Tulowitzki to pair up with Cano. Now THERE would be an A-1, historic-level pair of MIF bats.1 month 3 weeks ago
Tacoma RainWould Morse even consider playing for the Mariners after his accusations about the M's medical staff?1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogSlipping under the radar without much discussion is Mike Morse. If you could get him for 2X$11M (a number MLBTR suggests as likely), would you do it? Get me Gattis for Ackley and some of the kids, and I would have no problem adding a Morse for that. That's a heck of a better deal than giving up Walker to get one season of Upton.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogFind a place for Miller's bat then. That'll do.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattTaylor = Erick Aybar...the comparison is pretty clear stylistically, minor league numbers wise, major league profile wise, physically...1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogAnd BTW, the more I look at him the more Chris Taylor is growing on me. I think he hit .300 in the womb. I'm beginning to think last year was no fluke, and he has the glove to go with that Hit ability. Young SS's often become better Slg. guys (think Ozzie and Templeton) as they age a bit. I'm not willing to trade him (if avoidable) just yet. Along that line, I would have no problem putting Miller in a COF spot (CF?) if Taylor is a .300-ish guy.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogFor example: Ackley's "Hot" 2nd half in '14 was .269-.307-.479 (.786). Saunders' "Hot" 1st half was .276-.327-.434 (.761). Throw out (as pure "noise") Miller's 1st half of '14 and you get numbers that looks like this. 2nd half of '13: .269-.317-.424 (.741). 2nd half of '14: .268-.330-.464 (.794). Huh...Interesting. We're likely short a CF after this year (unless it is Jones). Miller in RF this year with a bit of CF time would be interesting, wouldn't it? Ah well...he's likely our SS and I'm fine with that. But I'll hang on to Taylor for a bit if I can.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogI think the issues with Gattis are more related to time and not whether we have a package or not. I want him now so we can move on with the next move. We have a few MiLB bats that are off the table for me (Kivlehan, Deej, Wilson, ?). Beyond that, I tell Atlanta to take their pick. "Who do you guys want?" I might negotiate a bit, but I'm willing to get the swap done today. Ackley and whom? Jones? He's yours. Etc. Kelly would have gone nicely in this offer, too. Goodness knows I'm high on Pizzano......even I would include him to get Gattis.1 month 3 weeks ago
rick82Here's something I missed: Mariners have been named the "Club Retailer of the Year" - no one merchandizes like the M's! month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossI think it's more lthat DJ has more trade value as the younger player and higher draftpick, since both he and Pat have similar skillsets. So DJ getting traded would not be for positional flexibility so much as purchase power between two dudes who could have very similar peaks if both pan out, at perhaps the same position.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossAs for DJ vs. Kivlehan, I don't think Patrick is all that more flexible yet. Neither guy plays a stellar 3B, both are aimed at 1B, and while Pat is faster he doesn't have much more OF (22 games career) or 1B experience (39 games) than DJ (20 games at first). If Pat gets a ton of OF experience this coming season while DJ plays strictly 1B/3B, then yes. In a perfect world, DJ = Tino Martinez, Pat = Alex Gordon, & both play for us. I doubt all that happens.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossAre the Ms working a viable 4-year turnover plan, or are they just being cheap/playing scared with extra years? Depends on your view of the FO. With Pat, DJ, The Jabaris, Pizzano, Guerrero, Lara, Wilson, O'Neill, Morgan, B. Hernandez AND uber-stud Jackson ALL aimed at the OF, you'd think you don't really want to lock down more than one position long-term out there. With the right bridge plan, I don't have a problem with that.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571And do you and Matt agree that it looks like they're trying to find 4-year bridges to Alex Jackson, Wilson, et al, to be competitive with the pitching they've got and then have those (cheap) guys come in as they have to keep it going?1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Gordon - what's your thoughts on DJ v. Kivlehan in the near-term? Do you agree that Lloyd's BP use bumps the value of Kivlehan (and the value of Miller being able to backup OF positions) and partially answers the "why WillieB" questions?1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571If the Ms could sign Hanley near-term, it also might make getting Kemp easier - if the Dodgers don't get Alexei Ramirez first. Taylor and Gordon up the middle has got to be looking interesting by now. Somebody just has to whisper "Guerrero, Joc Pederson and Puig" into some LA ears. Then I would be happy with Gattis and Terdoslavich from Atlanta for LH bats, and Upton can go to the Yankees next year from somewhere else.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571We don't want the Ms to add to your stress, Matt..... So let's figure out what the Ms *should* do, without sacrificing pitching, and then see what happens! ;-) ! And, Gordon, you're right (and, probably, so is Boras) that Upton will get 6/$18 at least on the market. It's the same AAV, but the years....Not sure the Ms are in for the long-term; the guys they've bid on so far have been pricey, but for 4 years. But extending Upton would make me, at least, a LOT more willing to give Hart DJ + LH bats in return. Kemp and Lee both are pricey but <=4 years commitment; would the Ms be better off with them?1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossMy dreams of giving Felix a World Series trophy before his arm falls off do not include us giving up our version of Madison Bumgarner if we can help it. Kinda think we're gonna need that dude for our first WS... and our second. Neither of those dudes on the table for us is Paul Goldschmidt, sadly. If just money will bring me Hanley or Tomas, or I can get Kemp for lesser prospects, then I'd go that way first. Trading either Paxton or Walker is an option of last resort that has to bring us more than one shot at the brass ring, IMO.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattI'd give up Walker for Gattis and Upton combined...but it would be stress-inducing.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossUpton's gonna get 6/100+ IMO, easily. He's a baby still. Swisher got 5/70 before the TV contracts went through the roof, and he was 32 at the time, not 28 like Upton will be. The Yankees will have wads of cash to throw at a player like him - Upton might get a 10 year deal. So because I view him strictly as a one-year rental it's hard for me to justify coughing up Walker or Paxton. DJ for Upton is easier, even if pitchers are more likely to get injured. Strictly speaking, it would almost always be better to trade a top-50 arm prospect instead of a top-50 bat. Pax and Walker feel like exceptions.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattThe Braves supposed want more for just Upton than they got for Heyward. They got Shelby Miller (our equivalent is Elias), and an interesting RP prospect (our equivalent is one of the lower minors relievers) for Heyward and a good set-up man. So they want more than Elias plus a B porpsect from low A ball for Upton's one season. But there's a world of distance between Elias + filler and Walker. Let's see the Braves find some pieces they like in that space and try to keep Walker.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571I think I understand how Victor Sanchez and Williams Perez can be as successful as they've been without dominating stuff. They both have good control of their FB. And they throw inside. Enough to loosen up the batter's stance. And NOBODY is going to charge the mound about it. I mean, imagine jumping into a Sumo ring! Does insanity run in your family? Well, it won't for long!1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571<p>Then there was my block-buster proposal of a few days ago - Ackley, Saunders, DJ, and Erasmo for Upton, Gattis, Terdoslavich, and Williams Perez (who Atlanta just added to their 40-man). Swap out Morban and Marte for Saunders and Atlanta might still like it a lot - but giving up DJ for 1 year of Upton is the stumbling block. Too bad so few players are willing to negotiate extensions as part of trades anymore. Boras has convinced all the agents it's a bad idea. If Upton would take a 3/$18M extension, it would all fit But I suspect Upton thinks he's worth more than that. Put Guerrero or Choi in for DJ, and you don't solve the Braves' post-Chipper 3B problem. And I wouldn't trade Kivlehan - his potential versatility is gold for an AL team with a manager that likes a big 'pen. Because of Lloyd, I think Kivlehan may be more valuable to the Ms than DJ.</p> 1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571And it would be fun to hear Rizz pronounce ter-DOSS-la-vich - would he dub him Terdy?1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Marte would be someone the Braves would have interest in as well - Simmons isn't going anywhere, and Peraza is almost as close as Marte, but he'd be very nice depth for them. So - Ackley, Marte, and another piece (Morban?) for Gattis and Terdoslavich?1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossI think we're trying to work out the package deal cost. One year of Upton, plus Gattis, is worth what exactly? More than Ackley plus Marte. Less than Walker + Ackley + stuff. I don't expect them to go for Marte (more likely Guerrero from us), cuz they're one of the few teams that has a top prospect almost exactly like him (Jose Peraza, a better defender too). I don't see them getting Walker out of us unless they're tossing Lucas Sims back, and they don't have many farm pieces we'd want. Coming to price agreement and piece fit would seem to be the holdup to me on Gattis and/or Upton.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571The Braves lineup (and bench) is ~all RH except for Freddie Freeman and they're said to want a couple of LH bats - both power and OBP types. So, yeah, Gordon, most any LH-hitting position player would be of interest. As to C, they can't make room for Bethancourt fast enough - I wouldn't be surprised if they pick up Jose Molina (whom they rays DFAed) to be his mentor. But they wouldn't be interested in what the Ms have there. They do want a CF, though. Maybe Landry is the 2nd piece in a slightly bigger deal? I still think Joey Terdoslavich would be a nice get if the trade can be for more than Gattis - Van Slyke a couple of years ago? Blocked by Freeman at 1B, and not a starter in the OF, but OK there, and originally a 3B. Getting a bit old (26). But his (switch-hitting) bat will play in the same way Van Slyke's does - 300 ABs moving around the corner spots and DH.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattMaybe we can give them Ackley and Marte...I don't think just Ackley gets it done.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossMore likely Hicks. They have Christian Bethancourt though, so maybe they won't want a baby-catcher tandem and will instead look to fill via FA/trade with a vet instead. Their system is pretty thin, especially on position players - they can use most any position player we'd be willing to swap with them.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattI think the Braves will want a catcher back in a Gattis deal. Ackley and Sucre?1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossGattis reminds me of Mike Napoli, without quite the same number of walks. When the Angels wouldn't let Napoli hit for them I was pretty confused. The Braves don't have a DH and using him at catcher is a short-term solution. He's a trade that makes sense for them if they can get a better-fitting piece back. I think he could fit in pretty nicely here. The Ms can't keep coming in 2nd on adding RH bats with some thump - gotta eventually take a couple people to the dance.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossOlmos has touched the upper 90s as a lefty. It's astounding how he can't get significant Ks, even in the minors, with lefty heat like that. I'm hoping the Ms can make a mechanical tweak to allow him to get his stuff over the plate more consistently so that people HAVE to swing. You hope your coach can correct the flaw (a la that Matt Thornton to the White Sox deal mentioned earlier in the shouts, who had almost exactly the same issue and was permanently fixed after three pen sessions with his new club). Could be interesting. And Gaviglio is just another Jordan Pries - good to have in case of emergency, but man you hope that emergency doesn't show up right now.1 month 3 weeks ago
rick82Gattis. I sure like his overall body of work. Entered pretty much every minor league level above the average age and promptly went to work hitting effectively each time. Went to the major leagues and immediately did the same. No adjustment periods, no flash really. No "hot young prospect" tag. Nothing to hype. Kinda has that Ty Kelly feel to him. What you expect to get, is what you get. I wonder if Kelly will have a similar opportunity. I love how I get that just by reading a baseball card, so to speak. I don't know a thing about Gattis beyond that card. I may be wrong. He may have been hyped and eagerly anticipated for all I know. Gattis for Ackley? I don't see a marked improvement in our offense. I'd rather add than swap. I don't want to trade our pitching depth, so Elias is someone I'd rather keep. But...I like Gattis, and a even swap is something I can live with. He brings good stuff to the table, as do Ackley and Elias.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogOK: M's have been like to Cruz, Upton, Gattis, Kemp and just about every RH bat out there. Not much so to Tomas or (TaDah!) Carlos Quentin of the Padres. Quentin is a walking injury, but hits when he plays (despite a dismal '14. He's only 31 and playing DH much of the time might be very good for him). Prospects would get it done. He'as a better roll of the dice than Hart was, for sure. I think I would be all over this one, were I Z. Gt Gattis for Ackley and you could have an order that looks remarkably like Jackson-Saunders-Cano-Quentin-Seager-Gattis-Morrison-Zunino-Miller Romero/Bloomie/Taylor/BU C on the bench. And I hate rosterbating like that. Quentin could be had. Get in-play hard, Z.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogI think I had a Shout dropped, too. Anyway, I commented on the Kelly for Random Surplus Arm swap, too. Good for Ty Kelly. He goes to THE great organization, will get a shot, and (I believe) will contribute. I wish we had kept him and used him. He's more classically a NL guy (switchie/utility/etc) but that is exactly why I wanted to keep him. OH, he'll probably play in the '15 WS. Gaviglio? Terrible last year in AA, decent before.1 month 3 weeks ago
misterjonezDefinitely agree, TR...although, I assume you're talking about Thornton when he was an M, because the post-M's Thornton was a heck of a reliever ;-) Would be nice to get a few breaks our way...outside of Branyan I have a hard time remembering players who cam here in the last decade and dramatically outperformed their established track records. Totally unrelated, but man do I miss prime Arthur Rhodes.1 month 3 weeks ago
Tacoma RainYes Olmos has a fastball and size... and I have been one of the more vocal guys wanting Andrew Miller because of the lefty flamethrower, and the fact that the Mariners do not have one - until now. I just hope Olmos is more Miller than Thornton.1 month 3 weeks ago
misterjonezOlmos is definitely pen material, but Gaviglio is a groundballer with good K's at AA and peripherals that suggest his ERA should have been closer to 3 than 4 at that level,.so he might stick in the rotation. Regardless, though, this team didn't really need MIF, it needed SP depth. But yeah, on Olmos I'm not entirely certain what they see there...although, perusing his Fangraphs page suggests that, in 2013 during a cup of coffee, his four seamer was over 95mph (someone check me on that). Couple that with a 6'5" frame and I guess I can see why they'd take a flier on him. Flame-throwing lefties don't grow on trees, and he warranted a 3rd round selection back in '08.1 month 3 weeks ago
Tacoma RainI hope you are right Jonez... but neither Olmos nor Gaviglio excite me, and I expect both to be relievers in Tacoma at best.1 month 3 weeks ago
misterjonezAnd the M's end up with a high minors arm to provide rotation depth. A good move, given all of the MIF on the current roster - and the possibility of adding to that mix with Hanley.1 month 3 weeks ago
Tacoma RainTy Kelly traded to the Cardinals... another smart organizational move by the Cardinals.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571I had a shout comment dropped, but basically I agreed with Moe that Upton might be too pricey for the return, and getting Gattis alone might be more the right thing. Since Atlanta needs and wants LH hitters to rebalance, maybe Ackley for Gattis would work straight up? Then go get Hanley and/or Kemp and keep Saunders for LF since he seems to be healing wounds. It would work out to be expensive, but the budget situation might be better than we think - which led to my next comment about the bidding on VMart and Martin.1 month 3 weeks ago
misterjonezdoubled up on the '100' below. Whoops ;-)1 month 3 weeks ago
misterjonezMost metrics do rate Martin as top-tier defensively, and he's got a bat that even during a bad year isn't far from league average. His yearly WRC+, since 2006: 103, 122, 112, 87, 90, 100, 100, 95, 102, and 140 in 2014. Even dismissing this season, a league average bat, at C, to go with one of the best - if not the best - defensive contributions that we can currently measure for the position is worth a lot. He's been worth over 4 Fangraphs WAR four times in his career and under 2 WAR twice with one of those being a year he only played 97 games while earning 1.9 WAR. Dude's a machine. He's aging, no doubt, but he's a machine.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogToronto overpaid on a bat, anyway. He had 5 years where he hit like Smoak (Wait...Toronto got him, too) before last year. Aging catchers don't often hit that well very long. Is he THAT good defensively? He had better be.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogAgreed Matt. I think we can get Gattis for Ackley and stuff. Or Elias, perhaps. But I think I keep our young rotation guys if I can. Then we get the other bat.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattSupposedly the Mariners offered Martin like $75 and VMart something very close to what he actually sideways.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattCruz won't get more than 4 with a vesting option. If the Mariners would like to sign Cruz and then trade for Gattis or Upton...I can live with that.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Hearing what the Ms apparently bid on VMart and Russell Martin gives me hope the M's FO is now (finally?) REALLY serious in trying to swing something, and may expand the budget enough to do some real signings/trades this time. If so, I hope they don't end up doing too much over-pay to get the bats they need. I don't want Nelson Cruz on a 6-year contract!1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattI want both of those guys...not just one of them...we need two bats. We can get JUST Gattis or JUST Upton and then get a different bat...but we need two bats.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattI give up Walker if it's a play that really gives us a great shot to win in 2015 and gives us long term value...Upton/Gattis for Walker and minor fillers is such a move if we have a way to get a pitcher in here to replace Walker for the short term. I love Walker, but I think counting on him in 2015 is risky if your goal is to win in 2015...would almost RATHER cash him in for a game-changer on offense and then go acquire a more sure-thing pitcher.1 month 3 weeks ago
misterjonezFor sure, moe, if Gattis is gettable for a complementary piece then we're better off getting just him and keeping Walker - that dude is going to be a stud. But I get the feeling that Elias+ should net us Upton, given the return they took on Heyward who is pretty clearly a superior overall player to Upton, so I doubt we have to part with Walker to get Upton - which would be my first play, long before Gattis (who's actually a year OLDER than J. Upton), simply because we need that MOTO RH bat right now.1 month 3 weeks ago
GLSUpton and Gattis are both pretty interesting, but neither walks a whole heck of a lot.1 month 3 weeks ago
misterjonezI'd give up Walker for Tulowitzki, not sure about J. Upton...I might if we got a negotiating window with him. Actually, I probably would if we got the opportunity to lock him up long-term as a conditional part of the deal. There's nothing in Upton's profile that suggests problems down the road, he's still in his baseball prime, and would be a fixture in the OF for us for years to come. But Walker for Gattis+Upton as a rental looks like a definite overpay. Then again, you do get the compensation pick if Upton walks...boy, that's tough.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattLee is probably too expensive if we added Upton...same with Lester. But we might be able to get someone's MLB ready #3-type pitcher to fill in along with Chris Young to keep the rotation populated.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571And, Matt, I would take the under on 360 AAA PAs for John Hicks as long as he doesn't get hurt. So, around the AS break. Even if the M's get Gattis, his physical ailments will mean they'll want to use him at DH, and if Sucre can't OPS >.600, he's not useful if Hicks is as good defensively (which he apparently is). July.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogto me. One year guys who are gone....I don't know about. Would you trade Walker for Gattis? Beyond this year that is what it equals. Are we signing a pitcher? Whom? All would apply. It would be a very near thing...but I might just close my eyes and do it. Maybe.... End the end, I would just work at getting Gattis, I think.....and have Walker AND Gattis beyond '15.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571As long as they're trading some Tylers - Matt, do you think Guerrero and Tyler Pike might be enough to get Lee? I know Philly under Amaro has been erratic in valuing players, but now Gillick is a stronger hand in things. If the Ms didn't ask for more than, say, a third of the remaining cost on Lee's contract, do you think prospects could get it done? Again, this would be IFF we traded Walker.1 month 3 weeks ago
GLSNah, I'm not giving up Walker for Upton.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogWell good luck to Ty Kelly. I hate losing him, I think he can play, but he's going to the best org in baseball....and it looks like he will get a shot. Gaviglio was terrible last year...but not bad the year before. Mostly a give away, I think. Get 'em Ty.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571If Walker brought both Upton and Gattis without too much more included (Medina & Erasmo?), it's proably worth holding the nose and doing it - but they'd better be in on the bidding for Lester AND re-sign Chris Young before they close the deal. If they can't get Lester, does Guerrero + get Cliff Lee? I'd still rather give up D.J. Peterson than ANY pitching to trade with Atlanta, but if the Braves are really that anxious ...1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Ty Kelly traded for Sam Gaviglio from the Cards. Gaviglio is from Ashland and went to OSU. Starting pitching depth, apparently. Gaviglio hasn't been particularly successful, but his numbers look OK. Better than just losing Kelly to the Rule 5, I guess.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattthought of the day - the Braves reportedly really want Taijuan Walker. Would you be willing to do Walker for Justin Upton *AND* Evan Gattis?1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Matthat tip for the effort, rick...but the presence of the t in fact bars it from use in an ackley portmanteau. :)1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattHicks....tellin' ya...he's gonna be up by no later than September1 month 3 weeks ago
misterjonezright-hander Mayckol Guaipe, catcher John Hicks and infielder Ketel Marte added to the 40 man, per MLBTraderumors via month 4 weeks ago
moethedogUnless I've missed it, the M's are waiting until the 11th hour to announce their 40-Man/Rule 5 decisions. there a trade in the works?1 month 4 weeks ago
misterjonezVan Slyke, for a mid-range (for us) bullpen arm and I'm sold. Anything more, forget about it. He's strictly a rotational player, which is basically what a bullpen arm is. This team dearly needs a bat the caliber of Tulowitzki, Ramirez, Cruz, J. Upton or Kemp. If the M's don't get a hitter of that caliber (AND a guy like Van Slyke), the offseason is almost certainly a failure. There's still plenty of time, but striking early would be beneficial.1 month 4 weeks ago
jemanjiThanks for keepin the site hopping guys … been out sick for a coupla days … probably see yer tomorry ...1 month 4 weeks ago
rick82Oh, is that a matter of factly?1 month 4 weeks ago
benihanaI thought Logan had a great article over on LoL - - in which he points out that "the new-look Safeco Field [is] one of the worst places to hit in the sport. Especially to left center field" - they moved the fences in, but less doubles > more homers. The M's need more good bats, not necessarily more righty-thump. Heck any of Thomas, Cabrerra, Ramirez... I'm good. I don't like Cruz in this park at his age for his estimated price.1 month 4 weeks ago
SABR MattI think now is a good time to sell high on whackley. Before he turns back into gackley. And then all we back for him is an equipment sackley. What we really need, at present, as some right handed smackley. Anyone who disagrees must be on crackley. :)1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogBTW, after mentioning Saunders I find that at least one Oriole site is suggesting they send us SP Miguel Gonzalez for Saunders. if Saunders is gone, anyway, we could get worse returns. He's Chris Young-ish, right now. Three years, cheap, too. I wouldn't bet the O's are willing to pull that trigger, however. OK, too much Shouting for me. I'm done.1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogRick, Ackley's gone "eventually" (aren't we all?). If he doesn't hit this year we ship him out. If he hits, we likely keep him for one more then ship him out before we get Boras-ed. Because he can play 2nd pretty well, I think he is our most attractive trade option, more so than Saunders. If he's your best trade chit, and you have RHB needs, then you have to consider trading him: Unless, of course, you're extremely confident his 2nd half is the real him. I'm not that confident. A .435 BABIP in July fueled all that. His 2nd half still saw just 13 BB's to 45 K's. Realistically, I think, you have to decide if his 9 homers in 174 AB's from Aug. 1st, onward, is 'really" him. To do so, you have to overlook his 27 in the 1650 prior AB's.1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogMore than anybody, I've argued that sans homers and pulling the ball hard Ackley's value really declines. He hit 12 of his 14 homers to RF and (doing a quick spray chart glance) 18 of his 27 doubles there, too. But I can't help believing those 9 homers in 170+ AB's is not something to count on. Were we to be able to get Gattis for him, I would jump in in a moment. Alas, he would probably look like Wade Boggs from then on, but I'm willing to take the risk for a RH booming (and cheap) Gattis.1 month 4 weeks ago
SABR MattCruz might need to be overpaid to get for us...but I'd rather do that than lose again in 2015. Cruz by himself isn't enough though...we would need to trade for a cheap OF/1B bat to go with him to have any hope of having enough offense.1 month 4 weeks ago
Gordon GrossI'm having a hard time seeing us get Kemp out of there over one of the paid-down other options too, moe - sometimes you gotta go with your backup plan. Either Kemp or Hanley would work for me as the first bat we add, but if we can't land either of those two dudes then we'll need to be able to do better than we have the last few years with backup plans. Rather see us get another Plan A like Cano in here, though.1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogVan Slyke has killed lefties at AAA and in his 232 MLB PA's against them: .268-.362-.530. In '13 in LA he hit RHP just fine, too. So he's got that going for him. Had Romero just hit lefties to the tune of a .892 OPS last year he would be a "darling," too. That said, there's a thread above where I posit that Romero isn't "done" and still has real whacking potential. I believe that. It was LAST year that I was all over getting Van Slyke (we should have), not necessarily this year. But my point below is that I'm not sure the Dodgers are likely to trade Kemp, minus their adding a very solid RHB (resigning Hanley, for example). And in lieu of that, and realizing they still need to dump an OF, I suggested that Ethier (and subsidy) was perhaps a more likely trade get.1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogGetting Ethier, by himself, doesn't really address a real need for us. Getting him along with Van Slyke would. That was it. Matt is right about the greener grass in somebody else's prospect farm, BTW (hence my reminder about Romero).1 month 4 weeks ago
SABR Mattagreed benihana - Van Slyke is a darling of the Mariner blogosphere becasue he hit really well in a not-too-heavily-exposed small MLB sample of at bats while our guys got exposed and hit poorly. The grass is always greener on someone else's prospect farm.1 month 4 weeks ago
benihanaI don't get the Van Slyke love. Don't see how he's a better bet than Stefen Romero, who's younger, more agile and outperformed him at the minor league level. Two months worth of big league at bats the difference maker?1 month 4 weeks ago
rick82I don't want to lose Ackley, Bat, but I see merit in your plan.1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogoops...Meant Taylor/Ackley not Miller/Ackley1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogI'm kinda arriving at the spot where I think the Dodgers are not going to trade Kemp. With Ramirez gone they have already lost 500 potent RH PA's Losing another 600 from Kemp, for a team that fancies itself as a "Contendah" may be too much. Losing Van Slyke's 246 PA's likely wouldn't be. As shouted below, I think the move (and perhaps the relative bargain) is to chase Van Slyke AND Ethier, in a package deal. There's traction to be had there, I think, and a bit of a subsidy, perhaps. Miller/Ackley certainly gets you there. Hicks/Ackley/RP maybe does. You would still be a RH bat short, perhaps, and you would have to make a decision on keeping Saunders. But this deal could get done...more easily than Kemp, I think. If the Dodger's sign a RHB, then Kemp is a goner. Until then, however, I don't know.....1 month 4 weeks ago
Bat571Rick, I understand your frustration! But my "plan" below assumes the Condor is turning things around with the club and will stay an M - an OF of Saunders-Jackson-Kemp wouldn't be that horrible, and Kemp would DH part-time against some RHs when Gattis or Zunino would take a seat and SVS would play RF. But I'm just trying to figure out how the Ms might use other team's needs to construct trades without giving up starting pitching (except Erasmo). Other than the possibility of Hanley, it looks like trading is the path forward. But I'd much rather re-add Chris Young to the five we got than trade any of the four that people have been discussing. Also, Jonzie, trading always seems to be held closer than FA signings because the agents are less involved in setting value, and some players don't like the speculation.1 month 4 weeks ago
misterjonezI expected the M's to be more actively discussed in trade talks this offseason. Either they're as active there as they seem to be on the FA market, but covertly so, or they've shied away from trades because teams are asking for Paxton/Walker to headline any package. I think that Elias should pretty easily net us Upton, maybe even Upton plus, and Roenis has to be one of the most trade-able pieces the M's have this year. But if teams are saying "Paxton/Walker to start, or take a hike," that would put more pressure on Z to explore FA first. Otherwise, it seems strange that the M's haven't been connected in trade rumors to just about every major bat out there. Or maybe this is just how it works in the days leading up to the 40 man cutoff? I don't just seems strange how loud the M's have been in the FA market and how quiet they've been on the trade market.1 month 4 weeks ago
rick82Yes, by all means replace Ackley in the OF with Kemp, and get Gattis some games out there as well. We need to degrade our defense a bit to assure Felix isn't deprived of a Cy Young again. Cleveland's woeful defense somehow put Kluber over the top in the minds of the voters. Too much Ackley, Saunders, Seager, Zunino, Taylor, Miller and Cano merely counted again the King.1 month 4 weeks ago
misterjonezBat, if LAD would do that deal and provide ~25% salary relief for Kemp's contract, I'd snap it up in a heartbeat. But it seems I'm a little higher than most around here on Kemp. Dude uses the entire field for his extra base hits and has the power to transcend the park while playing RF ~passably (he grades out better there than in LF by a wide margin, according to UZR, although he's still a well below average RF defensively).1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedog40-Man Roster day is Thursday, isn't it? Do I have that right. If Ty Kelly isn't on the 40-Man, he's gong to be Rule 5'ed.1 month 4 weeks ago
Bat571Still think Taylor-Marlette-Medina-Guerrero might get Kemp and Van Slyke, with Furbush additional to up the subsidy, if needed. (LA needs help at SS, BP, and future help at C, and though their outfield is crowded, it's also aging). Then trade Ackley for Gattis (Atlanta needs an interim 2B that can move to LF in a year or so if their prospect Peraza keeps it up). Trying to see how the M's excess might match other teams' needs.1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogSo the Dodgers just picked up a AAA RH COF/1B Masher named Kyle Jensen. Might they be ready to trade a MLB RH COF/1B masher named Scott Van Slyke? If you could get Van Slyke and a partially subsidized Ethier for Ackley (who they plug in at 2B) and Marte (or some such) + a RP, would you? Ackley starts getting more expensive next year....which helps absorb some of the Ethier $, and it is a Pick 'Em bet as to who would be the better bat over the next couple of seasons. Ethier is one season removed from being the player we hope Ackley could become. Then you go get Gattis, etc. Would you be in? I don't think it is a totally impossible scenario. You get Van Slyke for freeing up LA's salary/OF log jam. LA may have to do something like that.1 month 4 weeks ago
SABR MattPegs would be getting more ABs than Hunter in any doesn't help much.1 month 4 weeks ago
Bat571Matt - you missed part of that - they want to do a DH/RF jobshare with Peguero and Torii Hunter (who they're trying to sign). Maybe Torii can help him??1 month 4 weeks ago
SABR MattRoyals considering using Carlos Peguero in a DH jobshare. Goooooooooooood luck with that.1 month 4 weeks ago
SABR Mattyep...I'm assuming that's why we are in on Gattis as well...would love to get him if it doesn't cost us something else we need in 2015.1 month 4 weeks ago
Gordon GrossI assumed that's part of why we want Gattis - so Zunino doesn't have to catch every game, and the catcher can still hit when Mike's not in the game. Let Zunino catch 120 games, have Gattis catch 40 and DH or play LF in the rest, call it good. Gattis isn't a great defensive catcher, but he's basically what we wanted Montero to be. There's value in that. We'll see if we can make that happen.1 month 4 weeks ago
SABR MattI'd love for us to trade for Jason Castro. Dude can hit if he's not overtaxed...they could jobshare for 81 games apiece.1 month 4 weeks ago
GLSInteresting note in MLBTR that the M's were in on Russell Martin. No details really, but it's interesting that they don't necessarily view that spot as completely owned by Mike Zunino.1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogI love Billy Beane. He's my hero. If Z were really creative he would be under the radar and trying to buy out Wlad Balentien's contract with the Yakult Swallows (one year left) and see what he brings back to Seattle. No opposition here. To tell you the truth, one year of Upton needs to be relatively cheap before I'm too excited, I would still do Craig, Cruz is now pretty expensive I think, and I like four years of Gattis. Kemp and the subsidy is still very nice. The more I think about it, I have no problem using Ackley in any trade, BTW. I'm selling high on him. But I would like Z to make a move....soon.1 month 4 weeks ago
IcebreakerXBilly Butler sounds like the new Erubiel Durazo. Billy gets smitten and chases all over for his coveted Pokemon card. In any case, I'm glad the M's didn't bid on Butler... That combination of high OBP that's unsupported by declining SLG just doesn't feel reliable nor be a worthy buy. I guess 10 mill a year is the right price from a WAR perspective or whatever.1 month 4 weeks ago
misterjonezAs for Butler...$30mil over three years isn't crippling by any stretch, but it does seem to be an overpay. I would have thought a two year deal at $10mil/year would get the job done, but apparently I was mistaken. I like Butler's bat well enough that I would have paid him $10m x 2 years without even thinking about it. But three years...I'd probably rather sweeten the offer to Hanley/Cruz, or trade for J. Upton and work out an extension with him. Still, if Country Breakfast returns to form (which, given his age, seems to be a strong possibility) then that contract is a bargain. There aren't a lot of teams on which a career-averages version of Billy Butler doesn't hit 3rd or 4th.1 month 4 weeks ago
misterjonez4/70 for Cruz seems about right, oddly enough. I commented on LL and compared his last three years' value to Victor Martinez when I found Cruz to be worth 10-15% less over that period, but he can play LF reasonably well (lifetime UZR/150 @ LF is 9.5, and his 2014 mark was 5.8) and is over a year younger than V-Mart. His home/road splits last year were oddly inverted, which could just be noise or it could be a sign that he doesn't actually care what park he plays in. He's also proven he can hit well as a DH, which actually is a skill, ladies and gentlemen, and he's coming off a year where he was the only 40 HR man in the big leagues. He's going to get paid. It's possible someone can get him for a shorter commitment than four years, but no way the salary is less than $15mil/year in my humble opinion.1 month 4 weeks ago
rick82I see he turned down 15.3 mil. QO from the O's. Yeah he could get more than that from us, so definitely turn it down. But 4/70?1 month 4 weeks ago
rick82I keep hearing 4/70 for Cruz. Who is out there willing to pay a DH/poor to atrocious outfielder that kind of money? Who,would we be bidding against? Baltimore? Anyone else?1 month 4 weeks ago
SABR MattInteresting that Billy Beane thinks Butler will be a good bet. I'm nor sure I agree with him on this one............1 month 4 weeks ago
SABR MattNope. All of his power is gone and his once superior glove is now average or so...that makes him no better than median Dustin Ackley and much worse than 2H Dustin Ackley or the average of Michael Saunders' ups and downs.2 months 8 hours ago
Gordon GrossQuestion: if Nick Markakis can't come to terms with the Orioles (which I don't see happening because the owner loves that dude... but he still ain't signed so there's some smoke there) - do you pursue him in any way? He plays a buncha games but his doubles have evaporated over the last few years, and they aren't going over the wall either. He'll run you a pretty penny and is not the thumper you're looking for, but if Hanley and Cruz and Kemp don't get here, you're left trying to get one of these kinds of guys. Is he on any menu?2 months 8 hours ago
Gordon GrossYup, on both counts. But it takes two, and Hanley might bet a better offer - or just prefer not to play baseball in a cold weather home park for the first time in his life. Going from Miami and LA to Seattle is a jump, especially since we're in South Alaska. If money does talk, my guess is we'll pay a premium to overcome that. Cano, Felix and being on the brink of the playoffs will hopefully ameliorate that issue a bit.2 months 9 hours ago
SABR Mattagreed Gordon. I want Hanley just because I think he's a better fit for our ballpark and less likely to age catastrophically. I fear Cruz is going to pull a Sexson eventually.2 months 10 hours ago
Gordon GrossI consider Hanley unlikely too, but I'd prefer him to Cruz. Cruz is gonna get 4/70 like V-Mart, and might be able to squeeze that 5th year out of someone because he's a year younger than Victor. Rather pay Hanley for 7 than Nelson for 5 - but I guess we'll see how that goes.2 months 10 hours ago
SABR MattSupposedly, the Mariners are most interested in Cruz and consider Hanley Ramirez unlikely.2 months 10 hours ago
SABR MattThat I would do.2 months 10 hours ago
benihanaIwakuma for Upton straight up. Just sayin'.2 months 10 hours ago
Gordon GrossWhich brings up 2 questions for me: 1) in an era where good hitters are harder and harder to find, what is one worth on the trade market, or as a prospect? 2) Are we better off relying on the fact that pitching is getting "easier" and even if it's not really much safer is is more recoverable than in the past - so getting good RH hitters is the hardest thing to accomplish in 2015? If so, that might force a higher price point than expected.2 months 11 hours ago
Gordon GrossWhat's having a nice playoff run worth to you? Gattis is a club-controlled, non-walking Napoli and Upton is Upton. Add Hanley, keep a bunch of cost-controlled dudes climbing the ladder and keeping payroll somewhat manageable... Losing Walker would hurt, and I don't think we'd win that deal. But if it convinces Hanley to sign here because we're serious, then doesn't that mean we actually do win? Walker and Miller should bring more than one year of Upton and a decent DH type who may not be able to DH. Prospect value has been lowered in recent times, however. We have a replacement for Miller, but not for Walker. I'd rather trade fungible assets than singular ones.2 months 11 hours ago
Gordon GrossThe only way Walker goes for Upton by alone is if we think he's about to fall apart (Walker, that is) and we pull a Rafael Soriano. Schoenfield, a Seattle dude working for the East Coast Sporting News Network, proposes Walker and one of Taylor/Miller for Upton and Evan Gattis. THEN he wants to sign Hanley. While we're dreaming let's go all the way right? Payroll up to $135 mil or so, which is still "reasonable" by Mariners standards of never going into the red (thank you, new TV deals). We'd get a draftpick for giving Upton the QO the following year, assuming we can't sign him (and I'm betting we can't, especially if we added Hanley - but by then one of the baby OF bats might be ready).2 months 11 hours ago