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TaroWow.. good thing the Kemp deal didn't go through.3 hours 46 min ago
malcontentTrue, but Venable would provide some insurance against Austin Jackson faceplanting again.4 hours 5 min ago
rick82I think we're still on Upton, in that we've made an offer, it still stands, and Atlanta is hoping to get more. I think we have the best offer on the table, and that it is a very good offer, and that there is still a chance Atlanta will take it. Somewhere between what Atlanta wants and what we've offered is middle ground that we may end up meeting them on. That's based on absolutely no sources whatsoever.4 hours 40 min ago
Gordon GrossVenable's not as much of a platoon dude, mal. If you're gonna run a platoon you'd like to see mashing against oppo pitching, not just decent performance. Agreed he's cheaper and shorter, but that alone might be two reasons for the Padres to keep him - since they aren't likely to get much on the trade market for him.4 hours 55 min ago
MtGrizzlyLowe is going to have a tough time making this roster. Bullpen be stacked.5 hours 9 min ago
MtGrizzlyArthritis in both hips? Yikes - Kemp is not going to age well.6 hours 21 min ago
Tacoma RainMark Lowe is back!!???!7 hours 11 min ago
malcontentI'm surprised there hasn't been any interest in getting Will Venable over Seth Smith. Same team, same age, similar (but lesser) offensive profile, much better defense. And with one year left on his contract, he should be cheaper to acquire coming off a down year.8 hours 19 min ago
Gordon GrossPadres probably can't trade Smith til they're sure about whether the Kemp deal even exists due to the double-arthritis. That's probably the hangup on move#2 after Ruggiano: our other dance partner fled the floor on stage two thanks to a bad medical. So we probably won't make progress til after the Kemp thing is resolved, if we wanna make a couple large assumptions.8 hours 23 min ago
GLSSeth Smith is a quality player that would work really well in a strict platoon. Not sure what the Padres would want for him, but if they start shopping him there are bound to be multiple suitors.8 hours 51 min ago
DaddyOKemp: Padres physical turned up arthritis in both hips...Padres consulting with medical experts and determining how to proceed...perhaps we "Dodged" a bullet? hours 36 min ago
moethedogOver that last 24 hourse I've come to think more and more that this is a Denorfia move made early this year. This type of move is the right one and we gave up nothing we couldn't afford and Ruggiano doesn't block our kids if we want to cut him loose....but it didn't make us a lot better by itself.12 hours 15 min ago
moethedogYou might argue that the natural progression of Romero or the emergence of Kivlehan results in a hitter of Ruggiano's quality. When looking at Ruggiano you almost have to throw out '12 as he BABIP'ed .401 that year. That was down to .260 in '13 then back up to .375 in '14! Weird, no? Anyway, I'm discounting '12 as his Figgins-outlier year and figuring we've got something between '13-'14. That might be something like .280-.333-.500 vL. He hit 11 homers in vL 213 AB's. He was ugly against RHP in '13 and competent in '14. Oh..he plays CF which Kivlehan and Romero don't. He gives us a RH homer presence vs LHP, which we sorely missed last year and the promise of not flailing vs. righties.12 hours 15 min ago
moethedogHe most likely made us some better but there is a nother shoe to fall. It is possible that it is a 1B shoe as Morrison can survive in RF. Then your platoon is Morrison and Ruggiano. Unlikely, I it is easier to find the LH hitting OF than it is to find a regular 1B, unless we want Smoaky back.12 hours 16 min ago
moethedogI could see Aoki on a one year contract...or Rasmus on a two. I'm betting that we're not yet making Miller a fulltime/platoon RF'er. BTW, a cheap LHB we could get to come here is a dude named Carp. Cheap spaghetti. I would love squeezing Nava out of Boston, btw: Switch hits to the tune of .293-.385-.428 vR for his career. A perfect bat add. Very wishful thinking.12 hours 17 min ago
SABR MattI think we're out on Upton. I think we're now looking at guys like Nori Aoki12 hours 25 min ago
John PierceGood call misterjonez. I am thinking B) and I like your analysis of Z's potential use of leverage. Man, would it not be nice if he was that sharp and devious?21 hours 8 min ago
misterjonezIt does seem like Ruggiano is a platoon fit, which suggests that either A) Jack likes Miller just fine as a COF platoon partner (a stretch, to my mind, considering this is an 'all-in' type of year for the M's), or B) There is another move coming/simmering. I would *love* it if this was, as much as acquiring a 4th OF, a leverage move by Z in his discussions with ATL. The Braves have been trying to tack a few different players onto a J. Upton trade, and they're clearly not getting any takers. Seems like a good call on Z's part, but I might be seeing something that isn't really there.23 hours 35 min ago
MtGrizzlyA good defensive LH OF with platoon issues should not be difficult to find. Be good insurance just in case Miller or Taylor stumble in ST, anyway. That's the minimum we should expect, I guess. Hoping for more.23 hours 49 min ago
moethedogMust be one more add, Matt is right.1 day 1 hour ago
SABR MattSo assuming we're set with Taylor at SS and Miller platooning with Cruz and Ackley platooning with Ruggiano and Montero or Ronero filling in...with the rest of the bench being Bloomquist and Sucre...was the Saunders maneuver worth it?1 day 1 hour ago
moethedogSo it turns out that basically we had to top last year's 13th pick Trea Turner to get Souza, if we were ever interested (we should have been). We could have got there.1 day 1 hour ago
merksThe Diamond Genius really did startup a furor last night. It's funny I like him a lot more on the radio than I do when he's writing or tweeting. I don't think Churchill would put information out there just for web hits but he's not a journalists per se where he needs to verify what his sources feed him. New Media/new rules.1 day 2 hours ago
mojicianZduriencik has grown an expectation or two for Montero: If he can't be trusted with backup DH bench duties for lefty day, then he should probably be DFA'd1 day 2 hours ago
SABR MattI said dh because against lefties, if we add no one else, Cruz plays right, Ruggiano plays left, and we need adh1 day 2 hours ago
mojicianA right handed backup DH? The Boomstick doesn't approve of backups. :)P I hope they give Jesus Montero, Ji Man Choi and Kivlehan a chance this year as a revolving cast of first base benchies.1 day 2 hours ago
SABR MattI don't hate Riggiano, but 2014 was an outlier offensively and, when tasked with starting, Ruggiano floundered. This cannot be our last add unless Z thinks highly enough of Taylor to move Miller off of short...and even then, we need to add a rhb dh1 day 2 hours ago
jemanjiHey Lonnie of MC - long time no mosh. If you get a chance can you email me? jeffclarke238 with the server being comcast net -1 day 3 hours ago
rick82OTOH, I think this means we won't see a flyer on Guti, which makes me sad. Ruggiano takes Guti's role.1 day 4 hours ago
rick82Ruggiano has some very nice stats. Solid move here.1 day 4 hours ago
moethedogExactly Lonnie, this is a Stars and Scrubs move.....with us acquiring a "scrub" with some decent pedigree. A complementary 3-position OF'er was always in need but Ruggiano doesn't fill the hole we have for a LHB in the OF. I'm not betting that it is Miller. I think we start with Miller/Taylor sharing the SS job and Miller getting the occasional 3B/2B start....and some in LF.1 day 5 hours ago
Lonnie of MCI think everyone needs to lower their sights or else they are going to be sorely disappointed. The move this morning of Matt Brazis for Justin Ruggiano of the Cubbies was a nice move that will help bolster the team from the right side. Not a sexy move by any stretch, but Ruggs definitely has value. If anyone is interested, I've got something up on Ruggiano at MC.1 day 5 hours ago
TaroYes, but I think Souza profiles similar or better from here on out. Rays are doing well selling high (low?) here.1 day 5 hours ago
MtGrizzlyMyers was ROY in MLB at 22. Souza was in AAA at 25.1 day 6 hours ago
TaroFrom early rumblings it sounds like the Rays are about rip off the Padres. Souza is a speedier and better defensive version of Myers, and it looks like the Rays want a lot more on top of that.1 day 6 hours ago
MtGrizzlySo yeah, LoMo is with mojician1 day 6 hours ago
MtGrizzly@CupOfLoMo: I heard my mom and her #BreakfastSamiches are in on the Wil Myers deal.1 day 6 hours ago
mojicianDivish wrote that the new hitter would be better than Viciedo. While this sort of reporting is not as exciting as better than Upton, it has the virtue of being true. Ruggiano is far better than Viciedo. He plays all outfield positions, he's kind of fast, he's fit, and he rakes lefties. Viciedo is 240 lbs on paper (equals 240+ in real life), and doesn't hit lefties or righties particularly well and he runs and fields poorly.1 day 6 hours ago
SABR MattAgreed that Churchill is wrong far too often when he's working the rumors1 day 6 hours ago
Gordon GrossMoj is talking about Churchill's hysteria this morning. He was passing along info passed to him by "sources" but if their stuff doesn't pan out are they actually sources? Since Jason has a history of passing along Big Info that turns out to be much smaller. Can't tell if he's doing it for hits and retweets or not. His sources on these things do seem to be less reliable than other media types, so I tend to stick with the beat reporters for breaking news and Jason is more for editorial content rather than reporting.1 day 7 hours ago
mojicianRuggiano came from Johns and Dutton, and Ruggiano. Done deal. Those tweets regarding Wil Myers, and regarding a player between Upton and Harper on the bash-o-meter were definitely false tweets. I like that term, "false tweet" it sounds like a misdemeanor.1 day 7 hours ago
SABR MattIs Riggiano a false tweet? Our did that come from a reliable account1 day 7 hours ago
mojicianI'm hearing rumblings that #mariners tweets not tweeted by Drayer, Dutton, Divish or Johns need to be regarded with deepest suspicion. #falsereport, #boywhocriedwolf, #fail.1 day 8 hours ago
moethedogFlexibility is huge, King. That is true in terms of roster financial flexibility (which this still allows, as would two years of Smith) and roster/positional flexibility. A LHB COF add, as the finale, really allows that type of all-around flexibility.1 day 8 hours ago
John PierceAckley has been pretty durable. The last three years, he has played in 153, 113 and 143 games. Plus he had a small power surge, last year, when he hit 14 HRs. With that said, Taro, are you expecting him to decline?1 day 9 hours ago
KingCorranAnd by 2014, I mean 2016. *headdesk*1 day 9 hours ago
moethedogIf we get Smith (w/o giving up something young and sweet), the Smith/Ruggiano pairing is as good as bet as Melky would be at less than 1/2 the cost. And with Melky we still needed to grab the 2nd CF. This is the type of early complementary move the Giants usually make.1 day 9 hours ago
KingCorranI like that this doesn't block us from the 2014 OF FA market. If this is a chess match and we're thinking 4 moves ahead, there's a lot to be said for preserving flexibility for a no-prospect-cost move next offseason.1 day 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossYep, Ruggiano cost us a fungible asset. I would have preferred a different reliever, but really: we can find relievers. We probably just drafted 2 more while I was typing this.1 day 9 hours ago
TaroAckley probably needs to be platooned so you can still acquire either handed OF. We'll see, but I'm not holding my breath on an impact add.1 day 9 hours ago
moethedogThat's a good description, Gordon. I would prefer Souza...but this guy comes essentially free. Brazis is certainly a promising MiLB relief arm, but we hove those guys in spades. Ruggiano is the classic 4th OF as he can play all three positions and he's got a nice .266-.329-.508 career split vL. He does K, certainly. He is a potential nice addition. Does this mean Miller is no longer a SS? Or at least not the primary one and Taylor gets the ball? With Seth Smith then we would have a neat 25-man. Bloomie would be gone...In that situation I would give Romero the nod over Montero as BU 1B just because he's way more flexable. Right now it would be Ackley-Jackson-Ruggiano-Miller-Taylor-Seager-Cano-Morrison-Zunino-Sucre-Cruz. That's 11. We need one more guy that can play 2B/3B and a RHB 1B. One of those guys should be able to play COF, too. Then we are filled and flexable. Smith and Romero would get all that done.1 day 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossWe'll get more relievers, Spec, no doubt there. ;-) I just wanted Brazis available if we were gonna trade a major league reliever (like Medina). In fact, I would rather have traded Medina than Brazis. Now I assume the pen will stay relatively set (once we shake out the lefty thing, and find a place for Carson Smith... so maybe Medina is still in play after all).1 day 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossAnd really: Saunders + Brazis + 5 million bucks to throw at another move, or Ruggiano + Happ? It only makes sense if you have a legit platoon in RF (something that Saunders wouldn't have been happy with) AND one that will outhit Saunders.1 day 9 hours ago
SpectatorBrazis one of the unending spring-fed tap of RH relief guys that flow out of Jack&Mac's factory. Ruggiano's ISO 103 points higher vs. LHP (138 vs. 241!). But even tho he's 32, that's based on only 443 MLB PAs. So it's not carved in stone or anything. That being said, even Ruggiano's "bad" ISO (vs. RH) is an improvement over Denorfia and Endy.1 day 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossYeah, that's my worry Taro: that Ruggiano is losing his usefulness. He struck out 28% of the time against righties in 2014... AND against lefties. When you're K-ing 30% of the time against the arms you need to hit - that it is your ONLY useful skill to hit - I get worried that the end may be nigh. It may not be, and we're betting it isn't. But that better not be the last move. A Ruggiano/Jones platoon would sorta terrify me.1 day 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossSeth Smith is part 2 of that move, padna. I'll be pretty surprised if we don't now make that one.1 day 9 hours ago
TaroExtreme platoon player, history of mashing LHs, below-average defensive OF, showed some signs of decline in the 2nd half of the season. Will either be semi-useful in a platoon role or is finished due to decreasing contact. Still need a starting RF.1 day 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossThat said, if we'd traded Brazis for Souza I would have thought that was okay, so Ruggiano just needs to hit like his 2012 campaign and I'll be happy. ;-)1 day 9 hours ago
SilentpadnaThis looks like a Beane-style move to me. Ruggiano would be nice plug and play 4th OF. I'm okay with this. A low-risk, moderate reward. Am hoping there's still something more and the Divish is wrong. "Rays working a 3-4 team deal" makes me wonder....1 day 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossIMO, Matt Brazis was the best reliever we had left in our minors, and I had him ranked over Yarbrough. He was the next Dominic Leone and I expected him to "surprise" and make the pen in Spring Training (or at least be the first guy up). Cubs got a good one, IMO, in the vein of stealing Lord Farquhar. Hope Ruggiano can hit better than Denorfia.1 day 9 hours ago
okdanI'm just happy that it's not Viciedo.1 day 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossMATT BRAZIS??? ARGH!! I WILL USE MORE PUNCTUATION!!1 day 9 hours ago
DaddyOAh the lot of the baseball fan. Wondering all night what trade was going down, only to find out it's Justin ^&*(% Ruggiano (with a tone similar to that of Tommy Lasorda in his famous Kurt Bevacqua rant). I'm sure Ruggiano is serviceable, though I don't really know.1 day 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossYeah, I would now expect Seth Smith. A Smith/Ruggiano RF would be a .835 vs lefties / .840 vs RHP platoon for about 10 million bucks. It leaves room for the minors guys to step into an OF role while giving us guys who are used to platooning and pretty good at it to pin down the position. As long as we add a Smith-like bat, I'll be okay with that. Unless the early age curve hits either guy, in which case I'll cry into my cornflakes - and await Kivlehan (assuming he hasn't been traded for either dude... which would be pretty bad...)1 day 9 hours ago
okdanOne more correction (sorry, lots of contradictions between Drayer and Divish). Matt Brazis is going to the Cubs and Bawcom was DFA'd1 day 9 hours ago
okdanCorrection: Ruggiano for Brazis AND Logan Bawcom1 day 10 hours ago
Gordon GrossRuggiano's the older version of Souza's mid-range, I guess. Let's hope we didn't just trade for Denorfia again, but he should be fine in the role. Question is: is that it, or is there another deal in motion?1 day 10 hours ago
DaddyOMorosi confirms it's Ruggiano on Twitter. The guy's a late bloomer who still hasn't really bloomed? Platoon with MIller or Seth Smith?1 day 10 hours ago
okdanDone deal: Ruggiano to the M's for RHP Matt Brazis1 day 10 hours ago
okdanRuggiano in a platoon role with Miller is pretty "creative" wouldn't you say?1 day 10 hours ago
okdanSounds like the Rays are trying to work lots of angles involving Myers.1 day 10 hours ago
SpectatorRuggiano would fit the rumor profile, I guess. Souza now reported as part of Rays-Pods-Nats three-way discussions that Divish says M's are out of.1 day 10 hours ago
SpectatorRuggiano at first glance: moderate power, strikes out a ton, looks like pretty good power vs. LHP (big platoon split in ISO), swiped some bags in the minors, but gets caught a lot in majors. Upgrade over Denorfia I guess but not much more. Kind of a RH version of the bad version of Saunders maybe. Never had a season with less than 23% K-rate. Share time with Miller spotted against LHP?1 day 10 hours ago
moethedogI can't see the Pirates giving up Marte. And that would be fairly "major." Souza???1 day 10 hours ago
drmDidn't Byrd take the M's off his no trade list? I'm not sure you can take Bryd off the list because of that. Now, I've just seen Rugglinono from the cubs? Is he any good?1 day 10 hours ago
SpectatorMarte had an OPS of .808 with 30 steals and is signed to a mid-priced deal thru 2019 with 2 option years. Maybe he's too "major" to fit into what Divish has heard, and maybe he's not gettable without Taijuan or KPax. Just poking around ...1 day 11 hours ago
mojicianI liked the "better than Upton but worse than Harper" parameter better.1 day 11 hours ago
SpectatorDivish says not "major" but better than Vicideo. There aren't tons of guys who actually played OF in the majors that fit that description (assuming RH also). I wondering maybe Starling Marte of Pittsburgh? M's were linked to him at the deadline.1 day 11 hours ago
Gordon GrossAll right people, I'm busy today - keep me informed via shouts about this whole mess. ;) I can't be scouring the web and twitter for updates. INFOTAIN ME!1 day 12 hours ago
SpectatorLet's see ... Divish says flat out that M's not part of the Myers deal. Also says deal is less than "major" but not Byrd or Viciedo or the same names that have been recycling. No "big" prospects leaving. Interesting ...1 day 12 hours ago
moethedogBTW, hot off the MLBTR press: TODAY: If a deal is close, Crasnick says (links to Twitter), it is not for Marlon Byrd of the Phillies, who has not been approached about waiving his no-trade protection against Seattle. Likewise, while the Red Sox have discussed Allen Craig with plenty of other teams, there is “nothing brewing” on him at the moment (and no particular link to the M’s).1 day 12 hours ago
moethedogMyers is interesting: Young and exciting and we would probably give up Walker to get him, if that is the thing. His MILB #'s, btw, are no better than guys we have: Myers was .279-.369-.476 in AA. Kivlehan was .300-.374-.485 last year. In AAA Myers was .295-.372-.541, K'ing 26% of the time. Romero is .300-.347-.571 with 22% K's. Just putting him in perspective, mind you. Myers' dismal '14 was largely due to a weird vL crash/burn: .192-.259-..273. That can't occur again. Not possible. He's likely worth Walker, because he's a young long-term bat. I would do that deal. Gimme young bats if I'm giving up a young arm. But to tell you the truth, it's fairly likely we could get something like Myers by just plugging Kivlehan in out there. If we're trading for Myers, I'll bet you dollars to donuts we give up a young bat, too...and they add a piece. That would create the delay.1 day 12 hours ago
SABR MattGetting Myers would be a smart play...but less exciting. :) Lot of uncertainty with him, but it converts an excess asset (Walker) from our depth into an asset where we need it.1 day 12 hours ago
mojicianWhat about Will Myers?1 day 12 hours ago
SABR MattI would have Zduriencik's lovechild if he could actually get Bautista or McCutchen or similar huge asset.1 day 12 hours ago
Tacoma RainHow about McCutchen? He can't cost that much more than Upton...1 day 14 hours ago
moethedogAccording to MLBT-R: 10:38pm: A deal involving Desmond is still a possibility, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. Desmond is interesting but very Zobrist-like (with less homer power). One year of Desmond, if that is it, better be cheap. I'm not giving up Miller or Elias or Walker for that either.1 day 22 hours ago
moethedogZobrist is one year. I'm not giving up Walker for one year of Zobrist OR Upton. The natural bid would be Miller for Zobrist. I'm not doing that either. I like Zobrist, but he will be 34 in May, has seen a fairly consistent decline in Slugging over the last 4 years and his one year sin't worth any of the pretty pieces we have. If he's cheap, like Matt says, he a neat get. He isn't worth one of our arms or Miller or Taylor.1 day 22 hours ago
SABR MattZobrist, if he doesn't cost too much, would be cool by me1 day 23 hours ago
KingCorranSounds like a false alarm on the Myers bit. But that probably means we keep Walker... and it SOUNDS like the Myers bit was separate from the 'deal imminent' bit.1 day 23 hours ago
TaroIf its part of the Myers deal, it could be Zobrist.2 days 6 min ago
BilboSounds more like Myers to Seattle and Walker to SD with other prospects to TB is what is in the works. 3 team trades are complicated to say the least so this may not have legs, but I'd be happy with what is effectively Myers for Walker2 days 14 min ago
John PierceIs Myers considered better than Kemp? Because if he is not, why would Z trade walker for him, when he would not for Kemp? Myers shined the year he was called up, last year, not so much. I wouldn't mind the trade, two long term, cost controlled players, that fill the need of both teams. But then I remember Pineda for Montero, Then I'm not so sure. ;)2 days 15 min ago
rjjuniorJust yanking your chain, moethedog, on the Souza posts. No worries. Churchill track record is not great when it comes to rumors so...2 days 32 min ago
KingCorranI'm going to stop just reposting what Churchill says. I'm not a huge fan of his analysis, but he does have an ear to the ground at times. If the M's really are involved in a 3-way trade with SD and TB where Walker goes to SD and we get Myers... this is like Pineda/Montero all over again. Robinson Cano, in a different sense. Wow.2 days 37 min ago
KingCorranChurchill says MYERS for Walker a possibility???2 days 39 min ago
KingCorranYou know, Doc, you're gonna be kicking yourself for publishing this most recent article if in fact Z DOES have a big fish on the line... not to mention one no one saw coming. He seems to excel at that... yet an hour ago, no one would have argued with the post anyways!2 days 45 min ago
KingCorranIt just can't be Gomez, McCutchen, Stanton, or Trout. Ridiculous names thrown out (here) and thrown out (in the garbage). Moving on.2 days 48 min ago
KingCorranChurchill says better than Upton, worse than Harper. Bautista? zobrist? cargo? Braun? Adam Jones (by his definition, not mine)? Can't see werth or holiday...2 days 51 min ago
moethedogIf this isn't a deal that comes together easily it probably isn't a guy like Byrd, even though Crasnick is a Philly guy. Darin Ruf K's a lot but has hit 20 homers in less than 400 MLB AB's. But a guy like that shouldn't be too hard to deal to get. If it takes that long there may be several pieces to the trade. He has links to Boston. Victorino should be easy peasy. Craig? Werth in Washington is likely way too expensive. Interesting....2 days 1 hour ago
malcontentI've been thinking it might be a good idea to switch Jackson and BJ Upton for that purpose (having a Justin Upton bargaining chip). With Austin Jackson looking like the latest bug to splat into Safeco, BJ might be as likely a bounceback candidate as Jackson is, so if it brings the asking price on Justin down, I'm all for it.2 days 1 hour ago
Bat571Crasnick tweets it's a RH bat that hasn't had a lot of speculation about it - that doesn't sound like Upton!2 days 1 hour ago
Bat571Dutton's reporting Upton's asking price may be more at the Diaz/Sanchez [Guerrero/Marte?-bat] level. Maybe Erasmo would be of interest as well? I'd certainly be in favor of a Erasmo-Diaz-Guerrero type deal even for the 1 year of Upton - we're now talking prospects, not key core pieces. I'd even do Erasmo/Guerrero/+ for both Uptons if the Braves pick up all but ~$5M/yr of B.J.'s contract - it would possibly help keep Justin past this year.2 days 2 hours ago
Bat571Padres trying to get Wil Myers from Padres. MLBTR has Matt Wisler, Burch Smith, and R.J. Alvarez, all RHP, as targets, with C Austin Hedges also a possible target. Hedges is their #1 prospect by all 3 major rankings (BA, BP,, while Wisler is #2 and has Smith and Alvarez as #16 and #20. Wonder if Guerrero, Marte, Diaz, and Sanchez might be competitive if Wisler / Hedges is either/or ? Myers has been a bit of a disappointment in TB, but maybe not having to be a MAJOR piece, but just part of a young lineup might get him going?2 days 2 hours ago
moethedogOf the three, certainly Matt. I'm not prepared to give up much for a single season of Upton, however. Would he extend for another year? Inquiring minds want to know.2 days 3 hours ago
SABR MattUpton, Desmond, or Viciedo...that's the last of likely possibilities. Please let it be Upton2 days 3 hours ago
moethedogUpton? The Padres and Rays are in discussion on a significant trade that would send Wil Myers to San Diego in exchange for some of the Padres’ better young prospects, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Rosenthal notes that it’s not certain whether a trade is particularly close at this time, but an acquisition of Myers would likely take the Padres out of the running for Atlanta’s Justin Upton.2 days 3 hours ago
benihanaJerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick 10m ago - "Hearing rumblings that the #mariners are closing in on a trade for a hitter." - who's it gonna be? who's it gonna be?2 days 4 hours ago
TaroLack of stop-loss is the biggest risk in not nabbing another OF. Playing players out of position makes your defense worse and increases injury risk. Once you plug Miller in RF, you don't allow for ANYone on your roster to disappoint or to get injured. The next men in line are Montero, James Jones or Romero. These guys have some potential, but could be absolute disasters as well. They combined for negative -2 WAR just last year. The downside of that scenario is immense. We just saw it last season and it cost us the playoffs. We need AT LEAST one OF, probably two. I'm tired of the excuses and boneheaded acquisitions. This is our window. We need to capitalize.2 days 5 hours ago
DaddyOWe can get Sousa REALLY cheap! days 5 hours ago
moethedogAnd I still would get Souza!2 days 6 hours ago
moethedogDoc, I agree. I said that I would bet on all of those options, individually. I'm not sure the M's will, however. The funny thing about Aoki is that he won't really solve any of our "unknowns"......well, he would give us a lead-off hitter. But he doesn't solve the "unknowns" at CF and 1B (although Montero and Romero is a pretty good stable to be on hitting LHP). If we do that it is because it is the safe route. Insurance on our big Cruz buy. Me? Heck, I'm pretty sure that Kivlehan will produce the 100 OPS that Aoki likely will. But that is a bold route. Aoki has a reverse split, so you could still use him in a weird-unique platoon with Miller when the kid takes off. I read a couple of hours ago that some people think Aoki will get three years. Not from the M's! He might not get two from us. But Montero/Morrison and Miller/Romero/Kivlehan both work for me and are (IMHO) pretty safe bets. Will Z see it that way after his big Cruz buy?2 days 6 hours ago
Gordon GrossIf Ackley or Morrison or Miller or Taylor have proven they can produce over a full season, I haven't heard of it. Jackson has had two poor years and two average ones out of his 5 as a big-leaguer. Zunino can't hit the Mendoza line. We've had a lot of REgression amongst our young hitters in their early campaigns, not PROgression. Can't have our whole season sunk if Seager takes a fastball off the wrist in May, y'know? I want to see surplus offensive production if everybody does what they should, not just "enough" production. I want a Miller breakout to make us into the 90s Indians offensively, not the 2014 KC Royals. I'm greedy. ;-) And so's Jack, since he still wants to sign someone...2 days 6 hours ago
SABR MattIf we didn't demonstrate that we are willing to spend more on proven commodities...I would be fine with that job share, Doc. But we showed we were willing to pay to get something more bankable. Being reduced to hoping Montero and Miller can handle out-of-position needs is a let down.2 days 6 hours ago
jemanjiMoe, nobody but Junior minds your pressing the Souza point :- ) … on the other Shout, it sez here: (1) LoGo being able to back up 20 games in CF seems like a 90% probability, (2) Montero hitting lefties is already a given, and (3) not sure why you need D.J. in the second half, given the first two points. :: shrug :: What *I* am missing is, what people dislike so much about a LoGo/Montero platoon to start the year. There will be exactly 2 positions at which the M's have unproven players.2 days 6 hours ago
jemanjiYep. Will cheerfully agree that the M's overestimated their chances on landing one of their primary targets. But personally I'm not let down by the "fallback" safety net of a Logo-Montero type of platoon. If that was the "floor" scenario then I'm comfortable with the "dropoff" (sic). From where I sit, though, I don't know why they had to get so down on Saunders' work ethic. Sometimes they seem pretty old-school that way.2 days 6 hours ago
DaddyOI'm with both Taro and moe here in that (a) moving Saunders looks far less attractive now that we've so far missed out on a major RF add, (b) I don't trust Jack in his "creative" endeavors, and (c) barring a big add either now or in spring training, Aoki is starting to look like a good value move if for no other reason than to give us OBP at the top of the order. I just hate to see the M's playing musical chairs indecisively while the best available seats are all being taken.2 days 7 hours ago
moethedoghave I missed something here? If we stand pat and bring in nobody else we are structured like this: Our 2nd CF is Miller or Jones. Miller and Cruz could share RF in a platoon, with Cruz moving back to DH when we face RHP. Romero and Montero then become our RH 1B options, getting some time at DH when Cruz is in RF. Kivlehan or Deej is potentially up soon. Choi is there when Morrison DL's. Such a scenario is doable but it makes three assumptions: 1. Miller can handle CF 2. Either Montero or Romero hits lefties 3. The AAA guys will be ready early.2 days 9 hours ago
moethedogIndividually, none of those are long bets. I would bet on any one of them. But would you bet on all three of them? With "unknowns" such as that, I won't be surprised if we look for a "sure thing" if we make just one move. Signing Aoki and his .350 OBP leading off, is probably the MOST SIMPLE sure thing out there. it wouldn't be my first pick, but because of it's simplicity (and affordability) it won't surprise me if we go that way.2 days 9 hours ago
TaroWould be nice to still have Saunders. I don't trust these guys to get creative.2 days 11 hours ago
TaroI'm with Moe on Souza. Should be our primary target.2 days 11 hours ago
moethedogSorry junior. I'm a one trick pony, I suppose. I'm not sure he's a HoF'er, but he sure looks like a guy who solves a COF/CF problem for us. He's got a solid pedigree, too. He's an unlikely get for us, admittedly. But we have things that Washington may need. Last year I was all over Van Slyke because of his upside and he solved our RHB COF/1B/DH problem in one fell swoop. This year it is the Washingon kid.....and Kivlehan. Hey, another post where I didn't say his name! :) Old dogs CAN learn new tricks it seems.2 days 12 hours ago
jemanjiThanks for the shout there DaddyO, on several levels :- )2 days 18 hours ago
jemanjiMoe can keep right on shoutin' … if and when Souza wins the ROY he can send us a postcard...2 days 18 hours ago
rjjuniorWeird. A Moe posting without the word Souza in it. Must have hit Enter too soon.2 days 21 hours ago
moethedogI read it Bat. I think Guti has some upside...but he has a huge downside, as in falling apart physically again. I don't think he's a guy you can sign and confidently pencil in to a critical role. Minor League contract (or a cheap MLB one) and let him prove himself. I think I wrote something like that in the Creative Options thread. I meant to, anyway. Unless we're in on some kind of Atlanta swap, we're down to FA's Rasmus and Aoki. I've been a Rasmus fan, as stated, but the more I look at it, Aoki as a leadoff hitter might be just fine, if the deal is right. He has no split issues, is a better than decent glove, and gets on base. We could do worse. Of course, it still leaves the CF hole we need to fill.....and the 1B one.2 days 23 hours ago
Gordon GrossWell. Varvaro would be coming home if he came over here, and would free up a reliever to go elsewhere, right? ;)2 days 23 hours ago
moethedogGordon, you're mostly right about Kivlehan and Deej in the wings, but the thing about Souza is his ability to play CF. He looks like he is going to hit and get on base....if he can play CF, too...he's a great guy to have. If Rios is only getting one year, Aoki is getting no more than two, btw.2 days 23 hours ago
rick82Kendrys? Rios? Is the Royal strategy to sign bad ball players?3 days 1 hour ago
DaddyORoyals to sign Rios per MLBTR. days 1 hour ago
merksAnthony Varvaro has been designated and some of the Braves writers think he'll be packaged with Upton or Gattis soon.3 days 1 hour ago
Gordon GrossStill think he's looking for one piece. Maybe it's as simple as Smith and Guti. If Guti can't go (again) then we have Miller and Jones lying around. They ain't righties, but we'll survive somehow. ;-) This would still be easier with Saunders on the roster tho. That chasm between him and management might have been impassable, and I like Happ FWIW, but I'm still waiting on the sewn-up roster to finish my opinions.3 days 2 hours ago
Gordon GrossInteresting. I'm okay with skipping Rios, but we're running out of non-trade or non-homegrown options. I love Kivlehan, and was on board with DJ's drafting since before we drafted him. Either guy can play an OF/1B platoon shortly - but do we want it to be now, and without either man having a ton of time logged in the OF? Gonna be kind of like watching Ackey's first few months out there if we do. But why trade for Souza et al when we have stocked up on really good outfielders aimed at the bigs if we can just be patient? He'd need to be better, or allow us to trade what we already have. Not sure Jack trusts that... but he might have to.3 days 2 hours ago
Gordon GrossDiaz is a low-A arm. He's the equivalent of Chris Tillman when we made the Bedard trade. I think he can absolutely get us something interesting - but not by himself. And to the Braves, not with Marte either since they have no real use for him. I'd be fine with doing it, but I don't see it happening that way. :) And yes, we either need to plan on using James Jones or Brad Miller as our defensive OF and go get a Gattis type who can pound lefties and backup Zunino, or go get a Saunders type (which Souza fits into).3 days 2 hours ago
merksRoyals signing Alex Rios. One year $11 million.3 days 2 hours ago
Bat571Moe, look at my comments on Guti in the "Creative Options" thread - wadda ya think? Not that I wouldn't want Souza - but the rest of the options just don't float my boat. Basically, a healthy Guti, even with some limitations, might be the ideal bridge to the guys that are coming!3 days 2 hours ago
moethedogSomebody over on LL made the point that the natural platoon is in seattle already: Cruz in RF vs. lefties (and DHing the rest of the time) and Miller in RF vs. RHP. Interesting....I think the point has been made by Z or Mac that Cruz would play some RF. This fits that idea. It leaves us a 1B/DH who would DH vs. lefties. Uh...Montero anyone. Or Romero, waiting for Deej of Kivlehan to get here. That's possible, I suppose...but we're still a CF short, unless it's Miller. Souza would solve a lot of this, btw. COF/CF/1B.....3 days 3 hours ago
merksI think the Bowden thing is Edwin Diaz and Ketel Marte. Bowden last year called the Cano signing well before anybody else that I heard so you never know3 days 3 hours ago
SABR MattIf we could really get Upton for Marte all of a sudden...WOOHOO!!!!!!!!...somehow I doubt it.3 days 4 hours ago
jemanjiG-Money: these fine-grain takes on situations like Marte/Peraza continue to smoke, brutha...3 days 4 hours ago
moethedogUpton for Marte would be highway robbery on our part. We've got young SS's in spades. I'm in, if that is a honest-to-goodness possible deal. Cubs are sniffing around Rasmus it seems. In may ways, 2 years of Rasmus is a natural for us. In his 5 years he's OPS'ed .875, .695, .740, .893, .752 vR. So you can kind of bet that he's going to be .750-ish +, against RHP. Saunders was .781, .751, .831 vR the last three seasons. It's a wash, I suppose. I would prefer we get Souza, but Rasmus fits.3 days 4 hours ago
Gordon GrossHarper is never gonna be available while under club control. Maybe the last 3 months of it, I guess. Bowden mentions us in the Upton trade market again, throws Marte's name in the mix despite the fact that the Braves have essentially his exact twin in Peraza as one of their best prospects. It's pretty easy to see how Bowden got fired - or he's just trolling for views... a lot. Wouldn't mind sending them Gabe Guerrero and some stuff though. We're trying to keep Taijuan, Pax and DJ & still make trades. Not easy. Keep Kiv too! To that end, Smith works for me, but no I won't take Maybin too.3 days 5 hours ago
SABR looks like Smith is getting progressively more and more selective at the plate, resulting in better and better numbers against hard stuff (his value on fastballs is going up as he begins stalking fastballs, his O-sw and z-sw are both dropping rapidly and his contact rate is stable). Looks like a topspin hitter from the looks of his great disappearing popups. Maybe he's a better fit than I thought.3 days 5 hours ago
SABR MattSmith is unlikely to translate well to Safeco. Doesn't hit the ball in the air enough to be a potent enough platoon guy and we'd have to be able to land a RH pair for him that is actually willing to platoon. The RH bats that are available in FA all want to start...except for Gomes who is terrible. Smith isn't going to help us. We need a full time starter or a guy who can not die a horrible death every time there's a lefty pitching...preferably a guy who gets on base and actually hits the ball hard.3 days 5 hours ago
moethedogNo problem with Smith here, Gordon. He's not an Ethier-quality vR bat, but he's not coming off of a disaster year, either. Oh...he's significantly cheaper, btw. But he doesn't go play CF, which means the RHB platoon-guy we get to marry him to must play CF, as well. Can you say Souza? You might get Souza with Ackley. OK, add a MiLB OF bat, too. Then maybe you are there. Such a deal means that Miller becomes a COF, most likely. Souza plays 1B, too. We still don't have a 2nd one of those, unless it's Montero or Romero. We're we to sign Rasmus instead of Smith you could give Romero the vL AB's early and see what he's got. And I'm not quite sure what Bryce Harper's new contract means: is he signed for just two years or two year and then his arb cycle? I don't know. But I would sure send the Nats Walker for Harper.3 days 5 hours ago
Gordon GrossFrom MLBTR: "The Nationals recently offered the Mariners both Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond in exchange for right-hander Taijuan Walker and shortstop Brad Miller, according to Rosenthal. However, the Mariners balked at giving up six years of Walker and five of Miller for just one year of Zimmermann and Desmond at a combined total of $27.5MM." Yeah, I can see that being a problem for us. They also say we're in on Seth Smith, which from a corner platoon POV is fine. I've said before that's an As sort of move.3 days 8 hours ago
Gordon GrossOr... y'know, Montero... *bitterbeerface* Boy do I hope his 8th chance is the one he makes good on, I guess. Of course, he can't back up at C except in emergencies any more. Can't play the OF (LoMo can probably run faster backwards than Montero can forwards, and LoMo is nobody I want manning a lot of OF either). Can't hit righties. But there's always a chance, right? Between Clement and Montero I'm done with terrible catchers who have power as their only calling card. Thank goodness Zunino is good at D.3 days 10 hours ago
Gordon GrossThere are several teams in on Gattis, TR, who would fit that bill. But the Braves don't have a huge incentive to deal him yet. A Gattis / Upton trade gives us things we need, but I dunno that we're willing to offer what they want to make that happen. Our #5 prospect is quite a bit better than some other teams, if you consider Paxton and Walker "prospects." Just because Baseball America considers them out of the prospect category doesn't mean MLB teams do, and we're kicking suitors down that list a bit before they get to "acceptable" trades.3 days 12 hours ago
Tacoma RainIs it time to look at back up catchers who can play RF or 1B??3 days 22 hours ago
moethedogAllen Craig, Matt. He's still there in Boston. He's likely available. There is interest. There are teams that think he's not done. It will likely be Rios, I think, but Crig will hit .300 again for somebody.Right now, however, our most pressing needs are a RF (regardless of handiness) who can play CF, too...and a COF/1B3 days 22 hours ago
SABR MattI bet we did bid 4 years. I feel better now...can't do anything if the other side just doesn't want to play with you...Alex Rios it is.4 days 1 hour ago
DaddyO@moe ... Today, I salute you, sir. On Jan 6th, it's "Hey you!" :)4 days 2 hours ago
moethedogMuch appreciated Daddy. My last Mayoral day is Jan. 5th. After 6 terms I decided it was time to step aside. Hardest decision I've ever made. On Jan. 6th you rank me! :)4 days 2 hours ago
DaddyOMayors take precedence over retired peons like me!4 days 4 hours ago
DaddyOHah! Moe and me cross posted.4 days 4 hours ago
DaddyO (see note at 4:24 pm)4 days 4 hours ago
moethedogBTW: Somebody was willing (according to reports) to go 4 years. Us?: 4:24pm: Cabrera rejected a four-year offer from an unknown team because his preference was to play for the White Sox, tweets’s Jon Heyman.4 days 4 hours ago
DaddyONow per MLBTR an unknown West Coast team did in fact bid four years for M.Cabrera, but he decided he preferred to play for the White Sox. Seems plausible that the mystery WC team was Seattle. That would explain a lot. Perhaps Jack signaled a fourth year was doable only to be signaled back that it just wasn't going to happen. If so, then Jack did do everything he reasonably could.4 days 4 hours ago
moethedogThinking about Souza, I was scouring some Nats' sites and their Harper dissatisfaction was a topic of interest. In all seriousness I began to wonder if we were discussing the less likely Nat: If you could get Bryce Harper and change for Taijuan Walker and change would you do the deal? I don't know what to read into the Harper issue. Is it their version of our Saunders events? I love Souza, but why not make a bid for Bryce Harper. The upside is huge and you hope Cano, Seager and Mac can get him to grow up some. Young stud for young stud would get everybody's attention. Beyond that I will add this: Matt, Seth Smith is way cheap and his career vR numbers are ,277-.358-.481. He's all we hope that Ackley and Saunders would become, vR. He's doesn't hit LHP with a darn, but we could do worse with the bat. Endy for example. Alas, he doesn't play CF. Which makes him a less than likely fit.4 days 4 hours ago
Bat571But trading for a younger, faster guy is a better plan than hoping.4 days 5 hours ago
Bat571Hence my Christmas wish for Mr. Jones!4 days 5 hours ago
SABR MattRios is, honestly, not a bad fit in the 2 hole either. Get a lefty who can play some CF to help out.4 days 5 hours ago
Bat571Looks like Rios, to me. I thought he was a "for sure" 'til he switched to Boras and started laying low waiting for teams to get desperate to run up his price. Well, maybe that is working - I expect he'll get 2 years now and probably $10M a year, rather than the 1/$8.5M that MLBTR predicted. But, trying to be rational about it, a 2-year contract fits better with what's coming than a longer one. And, though his splits last year were pretty wide (much wider than his career split of .749 vR, .800 vL) , a .646 against RH wouldn't have been the worst OPS amongst Ms regulars, and the .898 vL would surely have helped! So, here's hoping for Rios, with a trade for a younger, faster guy to supplement. And a Christmas wish for Montero to be what he looked like he could be and for JJ to learn to hit the bendy stuff.4 days 5 hours ago
MtGrizzlyYeah, it's probably down to the 1-2 year contract guys with platoon issues now. Rios makes the most sense, I guess. Byrd, maybe, as a trade candidate that won't cost Walker or Paxton. One thing is for sure - the club cannot afford to go into ST with Endy Chavez as one of the top 4-5 OF in camp.4 days 7 hours ago
SABR MattIf our offseason tops out at Aoki, Viciedo or Seth Smith, I'm going on a rage spree.4 days 7 hours ago
benihanaSounds like we weren't outbid. With nobody willing to go four years Cabrera took the offer closest to the east coast as he indicated was his preference. I would have gone 4. /shrug. Let's get Upton.4 days 7 hours ago
okdanReally want to see the M's go after an OBP guy for that #2 spot now. Zobrist, Fowler, Seth Smith, Aoki. Someone like that. Really bummed we couldn't get Melky to sign on the dotted line.4 days 9 hours ago
DaddyOAlso, if this triggers Viciedo coming to the M's--- (apodosis omitted, just like in Genesis 3:22, with the same significance).4 days 11 hours ago
DaddyOLooks like the M's just couldn't resist the urge to repeat last year's Cruz mistake, shooting themselves in the foot instead of making an obviously needed roster-completing move, all over a relative pittance. Granted this time they got Cruz before doing so, but in the end you can't help but wonder if next offseason we'll be looking back at this as a the gaffe that kept on giving all year, the mistake that cost us the playoffs.4 days 11 hours ago
moethedogWe didn't get Melky BECAUSE we already had Cruz. This is a conservative FO and two 4 year/$50M FA's was very unlikely. There may be a fair argument in considering whether we should have just went and got Melky first.4 days 13 hours ago
rick82Outbid by the ChiSox. Why didn't they go more? If I had to guess, I think we're gonna see that Upton deal. Failing that, apparently the M's are more bullish on Romero than we thought. And why not. In 526 AAA ABs he's batted .300 with 23 HRs and 110 RBIs, and we aren't talking Salt Lake City or Colo Springs. He's had his first exposure at the big league level last season so that's out of the way. He and Miller can sting the ball from opposite sides. The M's must really like their talent - enough to hold firm on what was still a darned competitive offer and meanwhile discuss the ability to go creative in the OF if necessary. But I think they've got an good offer on the table for Upton, and may be prepared to sweeten it. Lloyd said we need two bats. He wouldn't have said it if it weren't a preordained priority I don't think it takes Walker to get a one year rental. It would probably take DJ, Marte, and Hultzen or Sanchez.4 days 19 hours ago
SABR MattThis is really...really dumb. Letting Cabrera go top Chicago is AWFUL baseball by Zduriencik. The best option left is a Rios/Rasmus platoon4 days 20 hours ago
GLSI agree with Taro. Holding out on the 4h year for Melky makes very little sense to me.4 days 20 hours ago
TaroSigh....will be pretty ticked off if the Ms dont find a legitimate starting RF. And I don't consier RIos or Vicieco legitimate options.4 days 21 hours ago
TaroSo we go four years for Nelson Cruz's age 35-38 seasons, but can't go four for Melky's 31-34 seasons. . Completely don't understand it. I we were picking one, Melky was the better choice.4 days 21 hours ago
TaroI'm not a fan of any of the alternatives the Ms are rumored to be interested in.. Rooting for Aoiki on cheap in the OF at this point.. Still want Souza but not holding my breath.4 days 21 hours ago
TaroFrustrating that we weren't willing to go four.4 days 21 hours ago
moethedogWe could do worse than 2 years of Rios and 2 of Rasmus, btw. The former seems more likely now, doesn't he. I would still Souza, and wouldn't mind giving up Ackley to get it done. As well, I have no doubt that Kivlehan is ready by June. All the same, two relatively affordable/complementary veterans seems about right. A reminder: We need another guy who can play 1B (Morrison isn't a great bet to avoid injury) and we need that 2nd CF. Which one are you betting on there: Rasmus or Souza or Miller?4 days 21 hours ago
moethedogAnd here we go: Who's the next guy on our list? MLBTR.... The White Sox have agreed to terms with Melky Cabrera on a three-year contract,’s Bruce Levine tweets. The deal is pending a physical. Cabrera is a client of the Legacy Agency. I didn't think he wanted to come to Seattle.4 days 22 hours ago
IcebreakerXMelky to the South Side.4 days 22 hours ago
rick82Three U.S. born blacks out of a 40 man roster is actually pretty standard. Looking over previous M teams, it isn't out of the ordinary at all. The 80's had rosters that doubled the number, but not always.The 95 M's had two: Griffey, Vince Coleman. The 2001 team had Cammy, Rhodes, Al Martin, McLemore. It just seems like there used to be a lot more. Perhaps that's because such a high percentage of HOFers over the past 50 years were U.S. born blacks. Seems they once dominated the game. But even the 68 Cards had Brock, Flood, Gibson...and that's it. But they dominated the game.4 days 23 hours ago
SABR MattI notice that a big chunk of the guys in baseball who are african american play CF. I find that interesting.4 days 23 hours ago
rick82Austin....right, Bat. Thanks!5 days 44 min ago
Bat571I agree, Matt - getting Souza at this point, even though he's blocked in Washington will require either an overpay, or taking an unwanted contract back. But I'd still do Ackley and Medina for Souza and Leon in a heartbeat, even if it's an apparent overpay. Steamer has Souza at a .777 OPS, while they have Seager and Cruz at .767 and Morrison at .757 and Melky at .770. Cano is projected at .821. Yes, Souza would slot in nice between Seager and Morrison!5 days 3 hours ago
John PierceThe excitement generated for Souza must be based on his impressive minor league stats and not on his really, really short, unimpressive, stint in the majors. I am not sure Z would be interested in someone like Souza to finish filling in the big league roster.5 days 3 hours ago
Bat571Rick --I believe Austin Jackson is African-American as well. That gives the Mariners 3/40, which is 7.5% - about in line with all the other clubs. I agree there should be more, but the facilities, equipment and opportunities for high-level play have to be there also in their teen years - and in the "cold-weather" states that's a problem for all races and groups. The YMCAs and heated/AC'd basketball courts are much more inviting year-round.5 days 3 hours ago
SABR Mattagreed GLS...I just think Souza is unlikely. He will cost a LOT more than VIciedo would.5 days 4 hours ago
GLSThe thing about Viciedo is that he'll likely never be more than what he is. As a platoon player, he has some value if used correctly, but Souza has the upside to be a legitimate plus player.5 days 4 hours ago
GLSTwo outfielders: 1) Melky and 2) Souza. I'd be pretty happy with that going into the season.5 days 4 hours ago
John PierceDo we need more than Melky or somebody like him? Miller is the wild card that could fill in that 4th OF spot. Re-sign Chavez to go along with Bloomquist and you have a real versatile bench that could adequately fill in all the positions. Or not. ;))5 days 4 hours ago
SABR Matttrade them Medina for Viciedo and sign Cabrera...we're locked and loaded.5 days 5 hours ago
SABR MattZduriencik reportedly wants to add two outfielders. If he'd like to get us both Viciedo and Cabrera, I could live with that.5 days 5 hours ago
SABR MattIn the 20s through the 50s, the game of choice for young black men in the cities was baseball. In the 60s and 70s it became basketball and football and has never looked back. Meanwhile, the kids (especially the poor) in the Caribbean and certain parts of Central and South America are now playing either baseball or soccer. Societal forces being what they are...the game will continue to get increasingly Hispanic as white baseball players begin to be distracted by soccer and lacrosse.5 days 9 hours ago
SABR Mattat the present time, the game is 7.8% black, 2.2% asian, almost 40% Hispanic5 days 9 hours ago
rick82James Jones and Taijuan Walker are currently the only African Americans on our 40 man roster (happy to be checked on this). The demographics of this game have really shifted.5 days 9 hours ago
SABR MattI think Melky wants to feel wanted.5 days 10 hours ago
okdanI think Melky wants to come here and play with Cano and Cruz. But he's holding out for that 4th year, because he'd feel embarrassed perhaps if he was only worth 3, when his two buddies got much more. He is 4 years younger than Cruz, after all.5 days 11 hours ago
GLSI would just give Melky the 4th year. I'm not sure why it's an issue for a player that's been a pretty solid hitter for his career and can actually play an outfield corner. Granted, he's not winning a gold glove out there, but he can play the position.5 days 19 hours ago
SABR Mattmerks - yes5 days 21 hours ago
merksSo is it a coincidence that the M's are loading up on Dominican players as there DR Academy gets rolling or are they trying to create some kind of recruiting, symbiotic thing?5 days 22 hours ago
SABR MattI'm bored, Z. Sign Cabrera, please.5 days 23 hours ago
Bat571Last year is a QO or a $4M buyout; then he chooses which way he wants it. then at Cruz's level, which the Ms have said they're looking at, it's $46M guaranteed, and $56M+ if he deserves and takes the QO. Put a signing bonus on it to sweeten and let's go!6 days 3 hours ago
SABR MattCabrera had said he wanted to stay east if he could...but all the east coast teams are ignoring now he's choosing between KC, Seattle and maybe Texas.6 days 3 hours ago
SABR MattI think what Melky wants is the best contract he can get...and so far...that's Seattle's...but he's trying to get them to go up a little more.6 days 3 hours ago
moethedogInteresting: I think it sounds like Melky doesn't want to head to Seattle. If he wanted to he would be here....Things may change.6 days 3 hours ago
TaroWhat I love about this is that it sounds like Melky WANTS to got to Seattle. We just need to offer him something reasonable.6 days 3 hours ago
SABR Mattall of those options should be on the table. Let him choose.6 days 3 hours ago
benihanaI'd even do a vest / player option. 4th year vests with 500 appearances but player can void, sell it as a win-win.6 days 3 hours ago
TaroJust give him 4 years guaranteed with lower AAV while hes on the ledge. 4/$50 seems fair. He could be worth another qualifying offer at the end of that deal. :-)6 days 3 hours ago
SABR Matthe keeps saying he wants it guaranteed. If he really must have it guaranteed...I'd do it...but if you can sell him on "but you'll trigger this no problem's easy...we're just covering our butts in case you have something completely catastrophic if you get 400 PA in 2017, 2018 is" then I'd start with that.6 days 3 hours ago
moethedog500 PA's in year 3. How's that.6 days 4 hours ago
SABR MattSounds like Cabrera is leaning hard in our direction and just checking to make sure no one else wants to play.6 days 4 hours ago
SABR Mattagreed...if Cabrera is now "seeking 4" instead of "seeking 5" that means we're winning. Sounds like no one is offering four right now. All we have to do is give him a 4th year vest with an easy lid.6 days 4 hours ago
TaroThank you Cano. Seems like a matter of time. :-)6 days 4 hours ago
benihanaRojas reporting the M's have offered Melky a 3 year deal and he's looking for a 4? I agree with Colin O'Keefe that this sounds like a leak from Melky's camp saying "going... going...?" - Melky at 3 years would be a coup, heck 'give in' and give him a vested fourth year with 500 plate appearances in year 3.6 days 4 hours ago
SABR MattThis is why you get your air craft carriers in they can sell your club to other good players. :)6 days 5 hours ago
MtGrizzly@RyanDivish: Cano said he's spoken briefly to Melky Cabrera about signing with the Mariners. And told him how much he and Cruz could help the team6 days 5 hours ago
gnattoI'd do that in a second... which means it's probably not an even trade.6 days 5 hours ago
Bat571Add Medina to the deal for their bullpen?6 days 6 hours ago
Bat571Washington still needs a 2B and some bullpen help. Still have dreams of getting Fister back, and thoughts of how nice Souza would fit on the 2015 club. If the Nats really want to dump Desmond, maybe there's still a deal in there? Fister, Desmond and Souza (both ML guys on one year deals left) for Ackley, Marte, Ramirez, and Guerrero +? (Guerrero as their Werth replacement in 2017?) Wonder what it would really take? I wouldn't do Paxton or Walker, but maybe Happ along with the others? If Melky and the Ms can meet at 4 years at Cruz-type pay, it would be nice.6 days 7 hours ago
moethedogI'm in on that whole scenario. Find me that CF/RF/1B type of guy now to go along with. BTW, if Bloomie isn't locked in at utility/25th/play everywhere guy, we could have used one of those guys. Actually could be our own Romero, if he sees 2B and 3B time in ST. Even with Miller as McClemore we still need another guy who has an IF's glove.6 days 7 hours ago
SABR Mattagreed Bat...was just talking about 20156 days 8 hours ago
Bat571I want Miller to do a Yount - move to CF when Jackson leaves (supersub 'til then to get reps) and win some GG out there, while hitting the way he's showed he can.6 days 8 hours ago
SABR MattI want Miller as supersub...SS/3B/2B/OF.6 days 9 hours ago
moethedogMuch of our OF speculation is dependent on Miller's role in '15 and beyond. It seems the M's think his footwork issues are serious enough to mean he must move off of SS, at least as a primary position. I can live with that as a transition to OF should be of no real challenge to him. So he goes to the OF. In '15 that would likely mean that he's the 4th OF and a BU SS. Lots of starts available as such, especially if he comes out of the OF blocks with some CF skills. If that is the Miller role, then Seth Smith/Rasmus talk is unneeded. But we still need that RH OF bat. Actually I would prefer we get a Smith/Rasmus guy AND Souza, still keeping Miller as an OF. It's Ackley I worry about. But whoever we get needs CF skills. Souza is going to be good. Kivlehan, too. Add miller to that group and you have a nice OF going forward.6 days 11 hours ago
SABR Mattdon't really care about defense as a value floor. If you don't hit, I don't want you.6 days 12 hours ago
okdanIf I remember right, Taro called his shot on Seth Smith several years ago, hoping the M's would target him. Looking at Souza, is he a similar kind of player? Perhaps that type of player template has a higher degree of working out. Certainly Souza's defense provides a nice floor of value in case his bat doesn't play as well.6 days 12 hours ago
TaroMontero's 2011 line in AAA for example was projected for a .261/.312/.435 line by ZIPS. He basically hasn't improved at all since then. Given his career line is .258/.302/.396 thats pretty close regressing for Safeco.6 days 19 hours ago
TaroBasically Montero was all projection, whereas Souza is good NOW with projection beyond that.6 days 20 hours ago
TaroI was huge on Montero's potential, and I was wrong. But to be fair Montero never put up the MLEs that Souza did. Souza projects as a 2-3 WAR player NOW based on what he did in AAA. Montero never did, he was incredible based on age related performance at his level and had massive power upside. But he never performed as well as Souza. His MLEs were in the 0-1 WAR range and he just never got better from there. Souza RIGHT NOW is above-average player. Montero never was.6 days 20 hours ago
moethedogI'm with Matt: Rios and Rasmus would be delightful! I'm with Taro: Souza will indeed be a player. But you could probably get both Rios and Rasmus for what Melky will cost per/year. 2X$8-$10M (with an option year) for Rasmus and something similar for Rios. Or just do Rasmus AND Souza, making all or us happy. You can get Souza fairly easily and sign Rasmus and have money to spend. Souza, btw, plays 1B, too. LoMo will need some breathers.6 days 20 hours ago
SABR MattHow much did you love Jesus Montero before we traded for him?6 days 20 hours ago
TaroJust think Souza is a player. I like his combination of athleticism, swing, and performance.6 days 21 hours ago
SABR MattRomero, Montero, Smoak, Peguero, Balentien, many more. So many you won't possibly remember them all. And all but a scant tiny fraction of them have panned out. And that is not unique to the Mariners. There is a massive zero gravity moon step difference between an awesome AAA hitter and a proven major leaguer. All players have risks...but some are less risky than others. And for the record, Cruz's home run power transcends Safeco rather easily...and his hitter's park in Baltimore...has a mediocre at best HR factor to left. So...yeah...not worried about Cruz.6 days 21 hours ago
SABR your insights and all...but how many guys have we promoted in the last 12 years who had great minor league numbers?6 days 21 hours ago
TaroEvery player you roster has some risk involved, included proven MLBers. Cruz will be a RH backspin 35 year old slugger with a career sub .330 OBP in hitters parks, and we've signed him for 4 years. I'd be more nervous about him than Souza in 2015, and especially beyond that. Souza has the performance in the high minors combined with insane athleticism. I think hes underrated due to being a football convert and a late bloomer.6 days 22 hours ago
SABR Mattyou don't take that sort of risk when this is the best chance you have of winning the WS. Souza can be a fourth outfielder option...not a starter.6 days 22 hours ago
GLSSouza is a risk, but a pretty good one.6 days 22 hours ago
SABR MattSouza is not reliable. That's not sufficient to this moment.6 days 22 hours ago
TaroI'm thinking Melky would want 'at least' 4 years gauranteed if hes looking for 5. If Ms stay hard at 3 they won't land him, vesting option for 4th or not. Just give him 5 with a lower AAV. 5/$55 or something in that range. Or deal for Souza (my favorite option).6 days 23 hours ago
SABR MattRasmus and Rios would be a fine platoon with CF helper potential and would be cheaper than Cabrera. I like Cabrera better even with more money involved, but Rios/Rasmus would also be fine with me.6 days 23 hours ago
Gordon GrossRios and Rasmus would be... extensive. By himself I'm not huge on Rios. A Rios/Rasmus platoon would be damaging. Playing with brass knuckles. I hope the Ms take the velvet gloves fully off this offseason. Zduriencik has waited half a decade to wade into the fight with fists flying - let's make it worth the wait. I'm fine with making Beane cry into his collapsing-budget cup o' coffee.6 days 23 hours ago
SABR MattRasmus. If you get Rios and Rasmus, the outfield aligns OK1 week 5 min ago
moethedogThe Rios card might not bluff the Melky team guys: In '12 Rios was a heck of a player. In '11 he was a dud. In '13 and '14 he was basically a split heavy .280-.320-.420 guy with a pretty scraggly glove. There doesn't seem to be much Rios market out there right now, which might be a neat quality. You could probably get him for 2 years and not break the bank. Over the last two years Viciedo has hit RHP at a .738 and .689 clip. Rios has hit at .714 and .646 rate. Just saying. But he does continue to beat lefties up, so as a 4th OF-paired with Ackley, as Matt suggests, Rios would be great. He's been at .889 and .898 vL the last two years. That's rip-roaring. But it means that you need a RF who can play CF, as Rios no longer does.1 week 1 hour ago
moethedogRios and Miller would be a neat combo, perhaps. If the hint that we had interest in Seth Smith is true that might also be a place to go. Smith and Rios would be an interesting tandem. But you're still a CF short. Smith is what you hope Ackley becomes. And he's cheap for 3 years. But unless it's Jones, Miller or Endy...we need a CF glove to go with the one we've got. Bloomie? No thanks...1 week 1 hour ago
SABR MattWouldn't mind also getting Rios to pair with Ackley1 week 3 hours ago
jemanjiYep that 5.7 RC/27, delivered game-in game-out, is looking pretty sweet. Good Kendrys plus wheels1 week 3 hours ago
SABR MattI hope that's what they do...I want Melkman.1 week 3 hours ago
jemanjiMatt: exactly. Gotta leave the face-saving buffer space to sweeten your "ultimatum."1 week 4 hours ago
jemanjiGood call on Desmond there Taro … is trending down … trends aren't the absolute (I'll take a Cano, even if trending down, over Franklin age 26) but Dr. D and the HQ mouse in his pocket agree.1 week 4 hours ago
SABR Mattyes, true. "'re not going to get ifve years guys...but maybe we can do four if the fourth is a vest for 130 games played in 2017 - deal?"1 week 4 hours ago
jemanjiPuts them in a position tho to close the deal. "We're going to go with Rios. If we did an easy vesting option on Melky for the 4th year, would we be getting close? Gotta decide tonight."1 week 4 hours ago
SABR Mattgrrr...nails on a chalkboard if it's true that the Mariners won't go past three years for Cabrera. That's just dumb.1 week 4 hours ago
SABR Matthm....I always thought Elsa was the principle villain of that movie until Anna made her see the light. :)1 week 4 hours ago
jemanjiIce Palace, conjured out of nothing, like Frozen. A lame homeowner but a dazzling jewel box to display the protagonist in1 week 5 hours ago
SABR Mattthis should be fun...beni is killing it over us a palace to live in.1 week 5 hours ago
jemanjiThanks go to Ben there Matt … where you, Gordon, and Spec are on the front page, that's pretty much up to you and Ben … I'm flexible. I loved the bottom row on his bidness site but I think he has an even better idea1 week 5 hours ago
Gordon GrossThat's quite a layout Benihana is putting together. VERY swanky, and only gonna get swankier from the looks of things (and from some of the potential plug-ins like a chatroom for games or whatnot). Lookin' good!1 week 5 hours ago
SABR MattI'd go ahead and give Melky the fifth year if he'd take 60 mil. 5/60 is cheaper than 4/541 week 5 hours ago
SABR the general look and feel of the new site, Doc...where would your co-contributors be features in a site designed like the menu bar below the front panel?1 week 5 hours ago
jemanjiPreview Benihana's artistry at Desmond HQ'able at old drdetectovision WordPress1 week 5 hours ago
Gordon GrossBTW, if Melky is seriously looking for a 5/60 deal and no one will go beyond three... give him year four, call it 4/50 and take an offseason victory lap. That's cheaper over 4 years than CarGo is over 3. Boras is just gonna jerk us around over Rios, and I'm not in the mood. Glad that Dutton thinks we're cool on Desmond and on Taijuan+ for Upton. Gimme my bat and let's break for a celebratory dinner.1 week 5 hours ago
Gordon GrossDesmond loves to swing for the fences, and that's a tough row to hoe in Safeco as a righty glove infielder. I'm fine with Melky, or with CarGo from the Rox for moderate pieces. I'd be fine with Rasmus and Souza. I'm NOT fine with Viciedo. I like the Rule 5 kid, and am glad we've gotten Seager extended, Cruz signed and I'm even good with Saunders for Happ depending on what we do after that. Still got that large and looming hole in RF, tho... let's not fall back to some of these worthless positions, shall we?1 week 5 hours ago
TaroEnough with these Miller for Desmond rumors and Viciedo…. Enough. We should be talking to the Nats about Souza, but I'm giving up on that as there are rumors pointing to it. Just sign Melky, and end the madness.1 week 6 hours ago
TaroDesmond is trending down. 4 years straight of declining SwS% and contact rate. His K rate jumped last year and AVG took a hit. In fact his BABIP was lucky in 2014 compared to his historical rates (jump in pop ups, decline in LDs). SS defense declining. Class buy high scenario and profile of a player that is aging early. HUGE NO. Makes no sense whatsoever. I would not even be confident that he'd be an upgrade in 2015 over Miller with the league switch and Safeco (which is a horrible match for his swing).1 week 6 hours ago
Gordon GrossThe Royals let Billy Butler go to the As for 3/30 and then their replacement plan is... 2/17 for Kendrys? I mean, it saves you 1.5 mil a year, but really? Betting on the rebound, I guess, or they REALLY thought Butler was done.1 week 7 hours ago
rick82Heh, we gave them Morse, we gave them Rendon, we took Morse off their hands. We pretty much handed them Fister. That good catcher they have? - I remember when he was a consolation prize in trade talks with Minnesota. We wouldn't pull the trigger and they swooped in and got a very good catcher. Didn't they have Raffy Soriano at one time? I want something good in return from that franchise for all we've done for them. And I'm not talking the next old version of Jose Vidro.1 week 7 hours ago
Gordon GrossWe already gave Rendon to the Nats - I guess we're just trying to help out around the rest of their infield.1 week 7 hours ago
drmMaybe it includes an OF? I really don't get the M's trading for a SS. I feel like these rumors all come from the other teams because the M's don't talk. It's kind of annoying,all these trade rumors so lopsided against the M's.1 week 7 hours ago
Gordon GrossDesmond and Souza for Miller (and a relief arm, I assume) might have some traction. But the Desmond thing seems to be picking up steam.1 week 7 hours ago
SABR MattDesmond for Miller would be world class stupid.1 week 7 hours ago
Gordon GrossThe rumor mill is very insistent on this Ian Desmond for Brad Miller thing. It does seem like it's Washington pushing the deal to get Miller (per Rosenthal and others who are probably quoting Rosenthal). It's nice to have players other people want, for once.1 week 7 hours ago
moethedogKivlehan will likely be ready (me talking) by the time we would call him up early, give him 40 Tacoma games, or so.....SF just won a WS with Joe Panik playing an core role: Is his pedigree (at this point) any better than Kivlehan's> Give me a RF who OPS's anywhere north of 105 and we will be fine. Pay $57M to get 130 from Melky. I want that RF bat, too. But we could do with a Rasmus type and then Kivlehan, when he's "ready."1 week 8 hours ago
Gordon GrossI'd be trying to pawn Viciedo off on somebody too if I were the ChiSox. It had better not be us unless there's a genius plan at work that requires some sort of ritual sacrifice.1 week 8 hours ago
Gordon GrossKivlehan's not ready. I'm tired of throwing guys who aren't ready and haven't seen enough pro pitches up to the bigs and watching them struggle for the first 2-3 years of their careers offensively because they're not ready. Seager was a success. But Zunino? Should be getting to the bigs now, MAYbe. Ackley was rushed to his detriment. Same with Romero. I don't want Kivlehan to be the next Romero. We can't afford that # of squandered ABs.1 week 8 hours ago
SABR MattGlad to hear from Divish and Dutton that this Viciedo thing is likely from them, not us. Viciedo is TERRIBLE.1 week 8 hours ago
SABR MattI am not pinning this season on Kivlehan. I'm a big Kivlehan fan, but I'm really gosh darned tired of hoping we can win if our rookie with not very much high minors time can miraculously land with a splash.1 week 8 hours ago
moethedogRasmus/Kivlehan : How about that? Viciedo hits lefties and that has value...but as I've pointed out, he must be part of a deal that includes a lefthand bat who plays CF. If that isn't Miller, then it's somebody we get. I've said all along that I wouldn't kick if we just told Kivlehan, "Hit the ball!" But even then, we need the other CF, unless it is Jones, who I'm not in on.1 week 8 hours ago
benihanaSantana to Minnesota 4/$54. I love me some J.A. Happ.1 week 8 hours ago
drmMaybe James Shields?1 week 8 hours ago
mojicianWhat are the Tigers doing? They haven't signed Scherzer, who is a 220 inning per year free agent, and they just traded Porcello, who is a 200 inning per year man. What if Scherzer doesn't come back? The Tigers' rotation will be Verlander and Price and then roll the dice. Or something.1 week 8 hours ago
benihanaBob Dutton tweeting Viciedo talks have cooled. Divish indicating that interest last year and likely now stemming from Chicago not the M's.1 week 8 hours ago
Gordon GrossColby Rasmus is the only guy who comes to mind, since he hits righties pretty well, can play D when he wants to, and is deficient against same-handed pitching (.650 OPS vs. lefties, .790 vs, righties). But why Viciedo as the other half of that kind of platoon?1 week 8 hours ago
Gordon GrossThe ONLY way that makes even a bit of sense is if they're bringing in a good-fielding lefty OF and they're gonna platoon RF. Who would that be? Aoki doesn't mash righties (in fact, hits better against lefties for his career, so why platoon him?), Ichiro can't hit righties AT ALL now... who would be the left-handed RF in question who's worth a platoon with the otherwise-useless Viciedo?1 week 8 hours ago
Gordon GrossViciedo is a replacement level player, literally. There's no good reason for that to be our final add. He'll probably make a little less than Saunders will, but not a lot less, and Saunders is the far superior player. Being able to hit lefty pitchers decently is only useful for about 150 at-bats a year - I don't want to pay him $3+ million for that solitary skill. There would have to be another move there, and I don't see what it would be. I'll be pretty ticked off too, Matt.1 week 9 hours ago
SABR MattYou will never have seen me so angry about the Mariners if their second big move is Viciedo. Bullcrud.1 week 9 hours ago
SABR Matt#$%^&($^%&()#$^%&()$^%&(*)$#^%&()%R$^*()#$%^&*()$^&(*) Mariners and White Sox in "serious talks" regarding Viciedo. The thing we'd give up would be a reliever. This completely and totally blows.1 week 9 hours ago
SABR Mattto get all the pitchers on here...we will have to carry a THREE man bench...not four. Because the bullpen will have eight guys in it.1 week 9 hours ago
SpectatorHad to double check myself here. Lucas Luetge in 2011 was ALSO 24, ALSO in AA, ALSO had been previously drafted by Z, ALSO struck out 32 lefties and ALSO walked just 6 lefties (though he faced 112 instead of 86), and ALSO gave up just 3 XBH to lefties (though his were all doubles). Freaky.1 week 9 hours ago
benihanaMasterson will earn $9.5MM plus incentives. I ain't sad about getting J.A. Happ, not sad at all. And Matt, the M's are gonna have to run a 4 man bench with one spot taken up by back-up catcher. Miller/Taylor, Willie B, gotta have guys there that can go everyday and play multiple positions. Another reason why Saunders wasn't a fit. Can't afford to take days off with such a short bench.1 week 9 hours ago
SABR MattRollins..interesting choice...not sure how we're going to cram all these pitchers onto the roster.1 week 9 hours ago
SpectatorRollins faced 86 LH hitters in 14 at AA, struck out 32, walked just 6 and .065 ISO-against (2 doubles, 1 HR). Can't argue with that.1 week 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossIf you want a cheat-sheet, then Rollins = lefty Farquhar. Much like Danny gets a bit too in love with his cutter when he doesn't need to, Rollins can be a bit too happy to throw a changeup or slider and keep dudes around in games. But the stuff is there, and the arm is live. IMO, a good and cheap pickup by Jack to fill a hole, if one of the best pens in baseball has such a thing as a hole.1 week 9 hours ago
SpectatorNo M's got taken in the major-league phase.1 week 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossI wondered if we were gonna steal a lefty in the Rule 5 to add to our pen options from that side. Rollins is a cheap bet, especially with a slider that gets really good marks and an up-to-mid-90s heater. I've only seen him throw a couple times, but he looks hard to pick up. If you're gonna get a LOOGY, get one with a killer breaking ball. We've got a couple options there now. I like the bet. He should explode with only a pen role to worry about.1 week 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossLara is probably a better 1B prospect than Alex Liddi was... but no, I don't expect anybody to jump on him. Ogando shouldn't go anywhere. He can't throw strikes yet, and you can't carry him long enough to work that out (unless it's a Matt Thornton situation I guess). Pries could probably hurt us the most simply from a pitching depth perspective in the upper minors, but nobody's really at risk this year. Without trade, IIRC next year will be a different story. Blash might go, just for a look. Be like someone stealing Peguero.1 week 10 hours ago
SpectatorOops. Haste makes waste. Padna was right. M's drafted Rollins in 08 and 09, not 09 and 10. For the Record.1 week 10 hours ago
SpectatorM's take David Rollins, LHP from Astro org. in Rule 5 draft. They actually drafted him twice in 09 and 10 in the regular draft, but he didn't sign until picked by BlueJays in 11. Oddly enough, went to Houston in the trade that sent J.A. Happ to Toronto. Numbers are fairly interesting at first glance, but not one of the guys Baseball America listed, even as a lefty specialist. Jon Sickles had him listed under "others." Just so ya know.1 week 10 hours ago
SilentpadnaM's pick up Rollins from the Astros in Rule 5. 3rd time's the charm I guess after drafting him twice ('08 and '09)...1 week 10 hours ago
benihana2 years 17-18.5 million for Morales. No thank-you.1 week 10 hours ago
SABR Mattnice pick-up for the sox after trading for Porcello...their rotation of the Wade Miley thing goes through would be basically 5 #3s.1 week 10 hours ago
SABR Mattooooh my...the Royals signing Morales to multi-year deal??? that is sooooooo bad1 week 10 hours ago
benihanaMasterson to Sox, Morales on a multi-year? deal to KC. Ha.1 week 10 hours ago
benihanaDon't Panic. Unless of course panicking means signing Melky. Then go ahead. Panic.1 week 10 hours ago
TaroI think the Dodgers and Red Sox did great here.1 week 10 hours ago
SpectatorRule 5 draft coming up soon. Baseball American sez Steven Baron or Jochi Ogando could get picked from M's. No great loss. We've got plenty of RH pen options ahead of Ogando. Baron is a bust. Predicts that eligible Jabari Blash and Jordy Lara won't get picked since too far away from helping on an MLB roster. Lara isn't really a prospect in my book anyway though I know he has his fans. I could see someone taking a longshot look at Blash since that kind of raw power doesn't come around every day. FWIW.1 week 11 hours ago
SABR MattZ can't keep sitting on his hands...we need to get something done here.1 week 11 hours ago
SABR MattTigers also talking to the Reds about getting a replacement starter.1 week 11 hours ago
SABR Mattdone deal...Cespedes goes to the Tigers.1 week 11 hours ago
okdan$31M going back to the Padres. And now I'm seeing rumors of Cespedes to DET for Porcello??1 week 12 hours ago
SABR MattKemp to San Diego done...salary agreed1 week 14 hours ago
jemanjiWhich is typical Mo' Dawg, the quick extension. Article up bro. Deal, if any, would probably hinge on signals from Zim camp.1 week 17 hours ago
moethedogWalker = Zimmerman only if there are years added to Zimm's contract. One and done isn't good enough.1 week 20 hours ago
misterjonezI thought the Dodgers acquisition of Rollins was basically a done deal? That team keeps taking on salary; it makes me wonder when they're going to finally shed some of their existing payroll. That Markakis deal makes Ethier slightly more movable, which strikes me as kind of bonkers.1 week 21 hours ago
SABR MattDodges were supposedly close to landing Rollins as they fixed their middle infield...sort of.1 week 22 hours ago
SABR Mattso it's a three team trade...Dodgers get their 2B...Angels now have a massive hole on their infield...color me confused.1 week 22 hours ago
merksLooks like the Angels are acquiring Andrew Heaney from Dodgers for Howie Kendrick. Dodgers have been busy today.1 week 22 hours ago
misterjonezRight. But the deal *must* include a long-term solution to a COF spot if we're surrendering Walker. I agree with you two there, and yeah...Zimmermann in this rotation makes it potentially historic.1 week 22 hours ago
SABR MattSouza would jobshare with Miller perhaps in LF, Melky plays right (because right is smaller in Safeco) and your ballclub is: CF) Jackson RF) Cabrera 2B) Cano DH) Cruz 3B) Seager 1B) Morrison LF) Souza/Miller C) Zunino SS) Miller/Taylor with a rotation of King Felix / Iwakuma / Zimmermann / Paxton-Elias-Happ (holy CROW!!) and a bullpen of 8Xflamethrower sign me up1 week 22 hours ago
TaroYa Matt, I would think the Nats would strongly consider that. Add Melky and our roster is terrifying.1 week 22 hours ago
SABR MattI'd do Walker and Ackley for Zimmermann + Souza + low minors prospect1 week 22 hours ago
TaroI'd do Walker for Zimmerman + Souza. An ace for 2015 + Long term solution in OF with an athletic young player that is very well rounded (hit, walk, power, speed, defense). + pick next year.1 week 22 hours ago
misterjonezAgreed, Taro. Souza by his lonesome is a better fit, and would probably be worth a bit to this club. I'm not entirely sure how we would incorporate Zimmermann, anyway...Felix, Kuma, Happ, Paxton, Elias and Walker makes six already, forgetting about Hultzen lurking in the shadows like a cowled Darth Maul with only his demonic eyes visible beneath his hood. Depth is all well and good, but at the expense of giving Walker and Paxton cracks at breaking into the league in a big way? I'm not sure it's a good idea. The only way it makes sense to me is if Walker gets us Kemp, in which case I understand the desire to push the chips in for the 2015 season by acquiring Zimmermann. This team, plus Zimmermann and Kemp, would be pretty amazing though and would probably be worth sacrificing Walker. Too bad LAD pushed Z off with their demands.1 week 23 hours ago
TaroWhy are we targeting Desmond and not Souza? Zimmerman + Souza is a much better fit for our roster.1 week 23 hours ago
misterjonezYeah, it makes me wonder if Jack started with something more along the lines of "Ackley for Desmond, or Ackley+Elias for Desmond and Zimmermann," and the Nats countered with the rumored "Miller+Walker" stuff. I have a hard time believing that Jack would go anywhere near that for a pair of nothing more than quality rentals, especially when he won't fork over Walker for Kemp/Upton according to reports.1 week 23 hours ago
moethedogA terrible offer. Were Zimmerman signed for 5x$17M, or something like that and the bat you send was Ackley, well then a guy would go, "Hmmmmmmm," just because you could swap out the one year of Desmond with some other team. But even then, it would be 5 years of Zimmerman for Walker and Ackley for whatever Desmond could bring. Actually, that I might do. But Zimmerman isn't signed and Ackley isn't in the deal. A bad no good ugly offer.1 week 23 hours ago
misterjonezOk, I short-sold Zimmermann a little bit. He had a nifty year in 2014, so he'd get Cy Young votes if he did that again. But I'm still not sure that the marginal upgrade he provides would be worth all that much to the M's, who already have an extremely talented rotation. Still, the draft picks next year for he and Desmond would be intriguing...not worth Taijuan Walker, I don't think, but definitely intriguing.1 week 23 hours ago
SABR Mattand given that we didn't want to give up walker for KEMP...I'm gonna guess Z left that meeting angry1 week 23 hours ago
SABR Mattthat is a HILARIOUSLY bad trade offer...if someone offered me that in fantasy, I'd block their email address and never trade with them again.1 week 23 hours ago
misterjonezYeah, no way I'd do that if I was Z. If it was somehow Zimmerman and Kemp (I know, it would take a 3+ team deal) for Walker and Miller, that would actually make sense. But no way do we give up TWO cost-controlled, elite prospects for a pair of rentals neither of which, while being very good players in their own rights, are MVP/Cy Young contenders. That would be a bad, bad idea. But like I said, if somehow you swapped Desmond for Kemp, that actually gets some traction.1 week 23 hours ago
benihanaNats wanted to do Zimmerman and Desmond for Walker and Miller according to Ryan Dvish, M's said no.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattLOL that is quite an image G1 week 1 day ago
Gordon GrossHonestly, that's a "Desmond and Fister for Miller and stuff" kind of conversation, I would have to guess. Still makes no sense.1 week 1 day ago
Gordon GrossThere's no good reason to be interested in a year of Desmond. Jack is troling reporters at the Winter Meetings after emptying the minibar and gorging himself on mini-sausages crowned with olives.1 week 1 day ago
moethedogHow weird is this: (MLBTR) The Nationals and Mariners have discussed Ian Desmond on several occasions but talks between the two teams have yet to really gain traction, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter). Washington likes Brad Miller, so conceivably the young shortstop could be part of a larger package the M’s would send back to D.C. Desmond is a FA after '15. He can swing the RH bat.....but this is weird-weird. One year of him for Miller? Eeeeek. If there is any truth to the rumor...there must be other significant players involved. Weird...1 week 1 day ago
merksPer Rosenthal Nationals talking with M's- Ian Desmond for Brad Miller and pieces. Nothing close at this time but have spoken often.1 week 1 day ago
SABR Mattwhat the...???????...the Mariners are interested in Ian Desmond?? WWWWHHHY?1 week 1 day ago
misterjonezInteresting deal between LAD and MIA. Miami sends a quartet of players to LA in exchange for Dee Gordon and Dan Haren (whose $10mil salary will be picked up by LA, assuming he doesn't go through with his threat of retirement in the event he finds himself playing anywhere but SoCal). The Dodgers get a cool SP in Heaney, who was the #9 pick overall in 2012, but I'm not really sure what this trade does for them overall. Seems strange for a team that's talked incessantly about wanting to shed salary in recent months.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattNeither Morse, nor an everyday player. The Mariners need an everyday RFer1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiAnd one of the beat writers said, rather darkly "If you want to be an everyday player, you need to be ready when called on" ...1 week 1 day ago
Gordon GrossSo I agree with moj - might was well talk about adding Stanton this offseason for all the likelihood of it happening. Watch, now they'll sign morse and neither he nor Cruz will be able to play the OF. It'll be hilarious.1 week 1 day ago
Gordon GrossMorse will never come back here after we cost him millions with a misdiagnosis and then compounded that by telling him it was all in his head and he was a weak-minded ballplayer, essentially.1 week 1 day ago
mojicianAfter listening to Michael Saunders talk about being traded, I don't think he was very cool with being in a platoon or a fourth outfielder or a supersub or having days off. Many bloggers wanted to see Saunders in the supersub role. Condor wants a starting job above all else, probably for free agency purposes. <> Saunders probably forced the trade with a demand to get everyday playing time. I think this is a little bit delusional of Condor, as his fades and sprains from everyday playing time were predictable as clockwork, and could probably been avoided and mitigated with half time play.1 week 1 day ago
mojicianI think this is all academic. When Morse played for the Mariners,the team didn't discover the spiral fracture, or whatever it was, in his wrist, and the ownership and fans ran him out of town on a rail after he hit like a feeb. I don't think the Mariners and Morse and sending each other Christmas cards anymore.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattMorse's tremendous power translated in 18 homers last year. Not convinced he's got tremendous power anymore.1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiThere&#039;s a solid argument against Cruz. We have 2 articles up as to his consistency. The 7 Surprising Things and the Taste the Triple Guns pieces. Suspensions aside, Cruz has missed about the same # of games 2012-14 as Robinson Cano. He has provided *end results* rather than component skills.1 week 1 day ago
TaroDoc, you have a point on RBI with HR hitters, but I its too much a premium to pay. In general I'll swap an 780 OPS for a 780 OPS. I prefer the HR hitter, but won't pay much of a premium for it.1 week 1 day ago
TaroAll that said, I'm cool with it as long as we actually DO spend the money. If its Cruz and Melky, then great. If its Cruz and Viciedo, then I have a major problem with it.1 week 1 day ago
TaroNo its all good. That's just the thing though. How do we know we can count on Cruz? Hes an aging bat. Morse has a slightly better career wRC+ and OPS+, played in more pitchers parks in his career, and hes younger. He was terrible with us due to his injury, but I wouldn't see that as a problem going forward. Predicting aging hitters is extremely difficult.1 week 1 day ago
SABR Matt(p.s. just so we're clear...I'm speaking with intention hyperbole to make a point and to be somewhat entertaining/funny...not attacking you, taro)1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattGiven that we tried Morse before, and he hurt himself blinking too hard and then whined about the Mariner medical staff...I'm inclined to say enough is enough with the 33 year old guys who might be OK if they miraculously defy father time and stay healthy. STOP THE MADNESS...sign someone you can count on.1 week 1 day ago
SABR Mattwho cares about cheap now, taro? Seriously...who...the...heck...CARES? We should be spending like drunks. That is all there is to it...we have a regional sports network and are showing the willingness to up payroll to 140 million. We have a flotilla of young, talented players coming up to fill in the holes at any time and a GM whose specialty IS young cheap players and who has proven to be TERRIBLE at picking cheap veterans.1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiIn fairness, we've been speculating on the Corey Harts, Michael Morses, Holdout Kendryses, Jack Custs, and Milton Bradleys for quite a few years. All those guys have Nelson Cruz' skill set on paper. What they lacked was 100 RBI off the paper ;- )1 week 1 day ago
TaroI see Morse vs Cruz projecting similarly over the next couple years. It wouldn't shock me if Morse out produced him or if Cruz were slightly better. You never know when guys will age. The difference in contracts is going to be massive. Morse is just a cheaper, better gamble IMO. But the deal is done, so it is what it is. Take the upgrade and add to it.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattI mean no offense taro...none at all...but Morse??? You really think he's the guy to get us into the world series? If you have the money to spend to get a legit MOTO spend it, even if you have to overpay a bit. I think Cruz will finish around .260/.315/.490-.500 and be worth +30-+35 runs on offense.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattMorse is absolute cow dung. Anyone saying the answer to our shortage of right handed power is Mike Morse is not understanding the depth fo the problem and is overestimating Morse's ability to stay healthy and productive consistently. Just no. We had 40 million dollars to spend this offseason...wasting any on Morse when there were better options we could afford is just plain foolish.1 week 1 day ago
GrumpyMaybe the fallback is to sign Morse and then have Cruz in for a RF-DH rotation? Maybe they don't want to block the upcoming OF prospects for 4-5 years? Who knows what they're thinking.1 week 1 day ago
TaroViciedo is just one of a thousand guys that can't check a slider. Add his terrible defense and you have a RL player. Even adjusting for BABIP, Viciedo was under replacement level last year.1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiBenihana's shout: +1. James has discussed this some. In a softball game that is 31 to 27, there's no difference between a single and an HR; you just want to avoid an out. The "ticking time bomb" baseball game is when the score is 0-0 or 1-1 all the way through, nobody can string offensive events, and you're waiting for a hero. Cruz is that, no doubts there.1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiAh. It's less crazy now? We can swat the dust off your Chief Seat?1 week 1 day ago
TaroGlad to be back Doc! Life has just been too crazy the last couple years to participate. Always been reading, always enjoy your stuff. :-)1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiTechnically Viciedo's XctX was .280'ish, not his xAVG … that's his hard-hit-ball rate times his contact rate. Also his xAVG and XctX is historically not bad, but it dipped as his found his power, then bounced back. I'm not recommending the guy!, but there are some similarities to Evan Gattis there, minus a notch of power. The M's have *always* liked Viciedo.1 week 1 day ago
TaroI expect him to hit .250/.310/.480 ish (mid to high 20s HRs), which will be somewhere around 1.5 WAR. He'll feel like David Ortiz compared to our DHs last year, but who knows when he starts aging. Don't like that contract. Preferred a dip into someone like Morse, who will be significantly cheaper and probably similar in value for 2015-2016. But it is what it is. Z had a man crush. He will be an upgrade, and now dipping into Melky makes more sense (and I think he is twice the player Cruz is from here on out).1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattAgreed that WAR is completely useless for DH. I never even bother to look for WAR there because the position adjustment is complete hokum1 week 1 day ago
SABR Mattiiiinteresting, Jeff...why was his xAVG so high?1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiDr. D's micro shtick on Viciedo: follow @clarke_jeff If a spam fell in the woods, would anybody block it?1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiGlad Taro is back! :- ) So I hate to ping-pong vs. his "premium" shouts to start off with … but one return of serve is: Cruz was the *first* RH masher in. It's kinda like Seager's first $100M being worth more than his next $100M ...1 week 1 day ago
rjjuniorIMO, wRC+ is the only number that matters for full-time DH&#039;s. WAR is largely unhelpful due to many factors, including, but not limited to, the positional adjustment. If he puts up 120+, he&#039;s worth it.1 week 1 day ago
TaroYa, that will actually cost him a few runs switching to full time DH. I kind of feel that the DH penalty is too harsh, but even then I think overpaying Cruz so early was a bad tactical strategy. Buying high.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattCruz's previous WAR totals matter very little taro...they were all as an outfielder with significant negative defensive drag. He's a DH now.1 week 1 day ago
TaroOf the top 5 teams in HRs hit last year, only the Orioles made the playoffs. HRs definetlyhelp, but you need other forms of production. Last year was the first time in four years Cruz was worth more than 2 WAR. Hes a 34 year old bat that provides no production either than HRs off of a career year in a launchpad. I think he'll produce and compared to what we've had recently he'll look awesome. But I expect more of 2011-2013 regressed for Safeco than his 2014 line, which is pretty underwhelming for a bat only player. Hes an upgrade, but I think we significantly overpaid.1 week 1 day ago
benihanaI think that Cruz's value is specifically higher as league average scoring goes down. When locked into a pitchers duel a guy who can hit 40 home runs translates directly into increased wins. I think OBP is more valuable in a high scoring game, slugging more valuable in a low scoring game. With the lower scoring trend, a GUY like Nelson Cruz is a very impactful piece.1 week 1 day ago
SABR Mattagreed that Cruz by himself would be disappointing...strongly disagreed on Cruz's status as an impact hitter (he's been nothing if not reaso to think he's on the verge of collapsing). But I really want to get Cabrera in here and finish the offseason right.1 week 1 day ago
TaroI would have been fine with letting the Orioles win the bidding for Cruz. But now that we are invested and the 1st rounder is moot (and Saunders is out of town), I like the idea of targeting Melky. He was a tremendous hitter during his breakout years in 2011 and 2012. His 2013 was zapped due the tumor, but his 2014 was better than it looks on the surface. His BABIP was well below career norms based on batted ball outcomes in 2014. This is not even comparing to his BABIP outcomes in 2011-2012. Hes also been caught for PEDs in the past, which bodes well for his aging curve. A top spin hitter that hits the ball hard is a good fit for the park. I still don't get the Cruz signing (and don't think hes an impact player going forward), but adding Melky would make it sweeter and give us a pretty potent offense.1 week 1 day ago
SABR Mattcorrect, Rick...and Taro, Cruz is higher-impact than Cabrera as an addition for this specific team and they wanted to make sure they got him in first.1 week 1 day ago
rick82Probably because they feel they can go four years, Taro. With Cruz, they knew the Orioles would win the bidding war if they didn't add the additional year.1 week 1 day ago
TaroI still don't get giving into Cruz and playing hardball with Melky. Both are bat first, lead glove corner OFs. Cruz better recently, Melky better over the course of the last 4 years (minus injury riddled 2013). Melky is signficantly younger and his bat profiles better in Safeco. In five years Melky will be 35 years old. Cruz will turn 35 during the upcoming season. Why are you chiseling the extra year on the 30 year old when you didn't on the 34 year old? It makes no sense to me.1 week 1 day ago
drmNow that Lester has signed, I wonder if the free agent market will really start moving? Who else is interested in Melky? I haven't heard of any other team really interested? I'm worried we are being used again, ala Fielder.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattI think Melky is being dumb though...he's not going to beat the Mariners AAV (14.5 mil per year) and he should want to try again after 4 years for another multiyear deal.1 week 1 day ago
drmYes, an option 5th year I could live with.1 week 1 day ago
SABR Mattalthough...despite my usual preference for not bidding against myself...I'd throw a vesting option for year five at him1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattThey are holding out on Melky because he has lower upside and they don't want to get locked in for too long to that1 week 1 day ago
TaroStills options out there that make sense if Melky is no longer on the table: Dealing for Souza with Taylor+RP.. and/or signing Aoki cheap.1 week 1 day ago
TaroI don't understand why the Ms are holding out on Melky if they gave into Cruz. Melky is more likely to age well. Once they gave that deal to Cruz, I assumed money was no longer an obstacle. If it was, you should explored your options more before signing Cruz and dealing Saunders.1 week 1 day ago
TaroViciedo has less than a season's worth of ABs vs lefties in his career so its not a reliable yet. In fact in 2014, he was better vs RHs. Overall he is a poor hitter and terrible fielder. I wouldn't even want him as a platoon bat since hes so awful defensively and his bat is terrible fit for the park. Just overall, hate the idea of him on the roster. Its an absolute joke if hes the starter, but even as a bench bat I really, really hate the idea.1 week 1 day ago
TaroHi Moe, I don't dislike the idea of going with a platoon in RF. Theres some merit to going that direction. But I really, really dislike the idea Viciedo in particular.1 week 1 day ago
moethedogBeni: By George, I think you've got it (perhaps)! I should have thought of Miller as a vR RF option and a consideration in the Saunders trade. Interesting. Taro: Viciedo beats lefties up. He certainly can hit them. On the other hand, Matt, Miller (maybe) and Viciedo gives you at least 90% of Saunders. Rasmus and Viciedo is 110% of Saunders, equal to Saunders and Viciedo. Jay, as a top of the order guy and CF heir-apparent, would be even better (if you could afford the Cards' asking price). I disliked the Saunders trade as much as anybody. He was nice...but fragile and not THAT nice. He's replaceable.1 week 1 day ago
Gordon GrossYep. Cargo's got three years left on his deal (3yrs/53 mill), and I like him for that. If Colorado is kicking in a few million we can spare them some secondary pieces, but I'm guessing they don't want to cough up the cash and would rather ride with Cargo assuming he'll recover. To overcome that inertia, I'm not sure what we'd have to trade them.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattIf we can't get a reasonable pruchase price for Upton, I would prefer Cargo, yes. Rasmus is the emergency desperation move.1 week 1 day ago
Gordon GrossMatt, I think Carlos Gonzalez or Colby Rasmus are the fall-back positions if Melky won't sign and the other trades are all asking for the golden calf along with a lifetime subscription to Popular Mechanics. Problem with Cargo: he's not likely to be traded for less than his healthy value, but nobody's really sure what that is.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattIOW...if we trade for Viciedo...he's a full-time starter. He's not Miller's caddy.1 week 1 day ago
SABR Mattit would have been easier to sign Jonny Gomes Not that would happy with that either.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattYou don't trade material goods for a platoon 200 AB RFer who can't field (Viciedo). They won't give him away for nothing. Trading for a platoon buddy is stupid.1 week 1 day ago
SABR MattI gotta believe something gets done during the WMs or just after.1 week 1 day ago
drmWell, I wish this would hurry up and finish, one way or the other. The waiting is killing me!1 week 1 day ago
benihanaI'm beginning to think that 'natural' outfielder Brad Miller beat out Michael Saunders for a job. Trade makes more sense when you think of Saunders as the M's "left-out"-fielder.1 week 1 day ago
SABR Mattif they trade for Viciedo, the Saunders deal becomes manifestly retarded. Like...a person with an 80 IQ would understand it was bad. I love Happ, but you can get 90% of what I think Happ will do by just re-signing Chris Young or going after Masterson gets you 100% at slightly more money. And if my choice is Viciedo and Happ (minus whatever we gave up for Viciedo) or Saunders and a bad RH platoon buddy and a free agent starter who costs too much or is risky...I go for the latter every single time.1 week 1 day ago
SABR Mattindeed Gordon. Still plenty of trade targets available. Sounds like the Braves want too much for Gattis...but may be swayed on Upton with the right finagling. Kemp is off the table for us, but there is also Carlos Gonzalez and possibly Troy Tulowitzki (longshot)...there could be Jay Bruce or John Jay or Colby's not like it's Melkman or bust. Melkman is just my preferred target.1 week 1 day ago
Gordon GrossBeing willing to move on, and actually moving on, are different things. Being willing is good - we've been caught in years past waiting and waiting... and waiting... for a free agent to make up their mind / to use our offers to get the deal they really want with a different team. Can't get stuck in that spot this time. And if he doesn't want to come here for the price we'll pay there's not a lot we can do except TO move on.1 week 1 day ago
TaroIf the Ms can't find a real RF solution, the Saunders deal starts looking terrible again.1 week 1 day ago
TaroViciedo can't hit or field. Of course he can occasionally hit a HR, which apparently is all you need for Z to be interested in you.1 week 1 day ago
drmYou think they are still in on Melky? I'm getting worried that the M's have moved on.1 week 1 day ago
Gordon GrossSomebody should explain to Melky that he's more likely to get another multi-year contract to end his career if he goes 4 years now instead of 5. It's both good business sense for him (assuming he believes he doesn't have to roid to stay productive for the next 4 years) and for us to go 4.1 week 1 day ago
moethedogIf you look at Viciedo as 1/2 of a RF solution then he's a good guy to have. An Earl W. type of guy. I liked him in this role last year. The Tank has his lefties to the tune of .291-.331-.507 over his career. That ain't chopped liver! It compares decently to Gattis but trails Upton. Cruz is, btw, .289-.364-.522. Tank has played some LF as well as RF, 1B, too. At somewhere around $4M per he's cheap. ERam in swap, perhaps? That idea has been tossed about elsewhere.1 week 1 day ago
moethedogIdeally Viciedo would RF platoon against lefties and give LoMo some days off at 1B. But it would mean we must get another RF (preferably a LHB) who can play CF, too. Then you're looking at Rasmus, etc. I like the effort to get Melky to 4 years and it likely means there isn't a huge Melky market out there, at 5 years anyway. But I wouldn't kick at Viciedo, who is a complementary player and brings a skill set the M's most sorely missed last year. He would be easy to move and he wouldn't block Kivlehan and Pizzano, COFs who will show up soon enough. AS part one of a two-part OF move, I have no problem with this.1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiBigMtnMonkey - sent it all along to the admins. Trust me, we feel your pain1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiCan't say I'd blame the M's for digging in, as far as Melky Cabrera and the 2019 season. And (Kemp, Upton, Cruz, etc) they're getting a rep for being both forwardgoing, and principled. Real nice blend, as Jay-Z would put it.1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiM's pressuring Melky, in the newspapers, to forgo the 5th year … using Dayan Viciedo as the foam rubber baseball bat … Viciedo is not AS lame as he looks, is somewhat comparable to a RH Logan Morrison (age 26 with serious UPside) but by all accounts is You-Glee in the outfield. Fairly light foam rubber it sez here.1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiKlat is establishing the new platform. By a delightful coinkydink, so is Dr. D personally, with modem brownouts, Twitter radiation and general loss of all perspective. Hospital time warps are being served alongside the Drs' beside-yourself zaniness. Anybody riding it out is likely to contract a case of our Sensible Insanity.1 week 1 day ago
Tacoma RainLester is now a Cub... Go Theo!!!1 week 1 day ago
moethedogRe Trumbo: Tongue-in-cheek, I hope Matt. Tongue-in-cheek...... And the Yankees are liberal spenders.......the Mariners are (or have been) conservative ones. Call it what you will, it amounts to the same thing.1 week 1 day ago
jemanjiNew Roenis Elias article at Next coupla articles will be here at SSI. Notably one on Seager's remaining UP side1 week 1 day ago
SABR Mattfrom the "thank goodness that didn't happen" files - Seattle was evidently on the verge of flipping Saunders to the Jays for Mark Trumbo if the Jays could work out the details on getting Trumbo...the if part didn't happen...WOW am I glad we got Happ instead...MUCH rather have Happ1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattThe Mariners, BTW, are not "conservative" - they are profit-obsessed. There's a difference. They have no problem spending all the money that they feel they can spend in order not to go into the red.1 week 2 days ago
SABR Mattthat's an inaccurate way to phrase the comparison, moe. Fowler will cost about 5 million less than Melky in year one and then be gone. So...$54 million over four years (about 14.5 mil per year) for Melky or...9 million and then a gigantic hole in your line-up.1 week 2 days ago
moethedogAgree with Miller: I've been in on his OF use, especially considering Taylor's proclivity at all levels to get on base. But Miller in the OF likely is a 4th OF situation or it means Ackley is moving on. I'm not seeing us with 2 LHB COFs. Saunders went because we chose Ackley over him. I would have no problem with Miller getting a RF shot in the event that Ackley is gone in trade for a RHB. Romero is hardly a "non-prospect." In his 185 AAA/AAA games he's hit north of .300 AND ISO'ed about .220. His first MLB rodeo wasn't pretty....but to label him a non-prospect is too harsh. If he's with the M's he will bat in the majors in '15 and it won't be a failure. I appreciate the TV revenue $, beni, really. But you're talking about a massive business entity here and conservative FO types. It you're talking about $60M = 5 more wins over 4 years, well....that's something that a conservative FO might not jump in on.1 week 2 days ago
SABR Mattwell done, Beni. Well done. The days of hoping and praying that marginal non-prospects like Romero hit their 80th percentile projection and are sort of useful in a platoon role or whatever the heck or OVER. This team should spend like a drunken sailor in odl St. John (where all the girls are dancin') - heave away, good ship Mariner. Buy the best player you can. To heck with bargain hunting.1 week 2 days ago
benihanaAnd lastly, I think the M's think that they already have a 3 WAR left-handed hitting RF. Just happens that his name is Brad Miller.1 week 2 days ago
benihanaOver the past 3 non-TUMOR-IN-HIS-BACK years, Melky has been worth almost 5 more wins than Fowler. And he can be had without giving any talent up.1 week 2 days ago
BigMtnMonkey2) At this point I appear to be logged in only within the article “Run on Offense.” When I tried, without logging out within the article, to log in on both the main page and within several articles I get the following error message: “Request unsuccessful: error.” I logged out within the article – the only place where it appears that I was logged in – and then logged in on the main page. I was brought to what I’m going to call the “My Account” page, as that is one of the two tabs at the top right of the page &amp; the rest of the page consists of a link to my articles – none –, my “feed” &amp; shoutbox. Clicking on the link to the main page results in my still being listed as logged out &amp; I get the same “Request unsuccessful: error” when I try to log in. I think that I’m done messing about with this for now. Hope that this mess means something to someone!1 week 2 days ago
BigMtnMonkeyRandom Site Notes: 1) For the past several days I&#039;ve been puzzled by a mismatch between the number of comments listed for each article on the home page &amp; the number (usually zero) I found when actually viewing the article. I realized that I wasn’t logged in &amp; did so within the “Run on Offense.” The page immediately reloaded with all six comments.1 week 2 days ago
BigMtnMonkeyTest1 week 2 days ago
benihanaOne interesting side-effect of the M's owning their own network (same with the YES Yankees for that matter) is that they have an increasingly vested interest in viewers. Their ownership in the network means more viewers instantly transfers into increased revenue - don't have to wait until the next round of negotiations. And since more wins = more viewers, it's time for them to stop acting cheap. Good news is, they don't seem to be acting cheap anymore.1 week 2 days ago
benihanaMoe, I think you are a bit stuck in the old M's paradigm. With last years $25 million per year increase in national TV revenues, plus Baker's conservatively reported $25 million in increased local TV revenues, this M's SHOULD be running a $140 million payroll and as I pointed out earlier, they're acting like it too. Time to stop shopping at the bargain bin and learn to love the Free Agent market. Sign the best bat we can get to play RF for next year, and worry about the rest after a nice post-season run.1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattI'd give Rasmus a 3/27 or 3/30 kind of deal. That would be an "OK" add...but he has a giant hole so another right handed bat would need to be brought in to platoon with him. It's not ideal if we keep Ackley because both of them need platooning and we can't really do that.1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattIf Romero gets even 1 at bat in 2015, the Mariners failed.1 week 2 days ago
moethedogI would still do a Gattis swap (who I like a lot), starting with Ackley and going young from there. Were I to make that up Ackley, I would look at Rasmus as a RF addition. I think he's flying under folks radar, $-wise. He can play CF (and we need another) and he's a career .788 guy vs. RHP. You could platoon him in RF with a Romero or cheap addition (if you're giving Kivlehan lots of Tacoma). I predicate that on our losing Ackley in the addition of a RF bat. I like Rasmus more than Fowler, anybody in Colo. and (CF bonus) Melky, for the right price. not much out there about him. how much is he worth Matt?1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattMariners haven't been talking to the Braves recently either...I hope we don't get NONE of those guys...because if we end up with something less than a bankable 3 WAR, then the Michael Saunders trade becomes stupid again.1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattFowler is a lousy fielder and streaky at the plate...and a bad fit for Safeco. And I'm not banking our chances in 2015/2016 on anyone unproven. This is the time to win now...get high stoploss even if you pay a premium for it.1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattPadres in on him because Friedma want's to have Yasmani Grandal's babies. He is irrationally attached to the guy for some reason.1 week 2 days ago
MtGrizzly@JonHeymanCBS: hear orioles, rangers and mariners, 3 early kemp players, are all out on him. seems like might be padres or bust.1 week 2 days ago
moethedogFowler is a one year guy with a .340 career OBP away from home (trying not to cherry pick). .375 for the year in Houston last year (still not trying to cherry pick Coors) He gives us two draws at the CF market after this year. He would be a fine glove in RF. With Souza comes a terrific pitching arm, in my scenario. Craig was OK in RF with St. Louis. I admit, he's not been a fulltime RF'er. Gonzales is one of the OFs I would like. Let's not pretend that $57M for Melky is chump isn't. It's impact will be felt down the line. I am not convinced that we've seen a sea change in the M's FO's willingness to perpetually spend this kind of dough.1 week 2 days ago
moethedogI would rather spend that Melky money on something else down the line. Kuma, for example...or a pitcher to replace him. I'm convinced that Kivlehan would be a 100 OPS guy in RF starting June 1st. If that is the case, then for $57 million you're getting not much of an improvement. Matt, as I've said, Melky is no slouch. But at 4x$15M he's steep, too. The analysis is not whether Melky is a fine player...but whether he's worth to the M's the $ it would take.1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattColorado has only one OFer in whom I have any interest. Gonzalez. Blackmon is a joke outside of Coors. As is Dickerson. Craig is worth very little to me and cannot play the outfield so why the heck would I want him? Fowler is awful for the money he'll cost. Souza is fragile and not something that can start every day. None of the things on your list make me feel confident in this team moving forward. None of them.1 week 2 days ago
moethedogI'm out on Melky. He's off my Christmas list. There are other OF's who I would explore and chase. Colorado has two and Fowler is still available in Houston. Allen Craig will hit .300 again this year. But mostly I think I would chase a pitcher AND Souza from the Nats. They are dangling Fister and Zimmerman. For one of those two guys (with a year's extension...which you could probably do at $15-$18M) and Souza I would give up Walker or Elias and a prospect. We need a guy sho can play OF AND 1B, by the way. Souza does that. I'm not doing it for just one year of one of those pitchers...but I would do it for two.1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattIt's like he tried to win by goig failed spectacularly so he said "I'm better at winning by going small...let's do that again"1 week 2 days ago
TaroGuessing they keep Gentry+Jaso then? I have no idea what Beane is doing but it is fascinating to watch.1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattAs say they're now looking to add a couple of pieces and will not trade Kazmir. I do not understand Beane's approach this year. Butler is an albatross contract before he event takes the field...they traded their best players for bulk they want to play add-on? WHY? What are they trying to accomplish?1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattIndeed...some of the guys they got are...interesting...but none of them are exciting. They're classic orcs. But yes...they are obviously in reload mode so they will not be scary in 2015. That leaves us battling the top-heavy Angels and clubs like the Chisox, Blue Jays, Orioles and Indians1 week 2 days ago
Gordon GrossTheir farm system would be less depleted if they hadn't traded Addison Russell. Just sayin - not that i'm unhappy about getting that kid into the NL. The up-n-comers right now look like us, Toronto, probably the White Sox, the 'Stros soon... I'm glad the As seem to be taking a breather, but I try not to count them out. "Nothing pieces" seem to be what Oakland builds contenders out of.1 week 2 days ago
SABR Mattthe As' farm system was badly depleted, so all of their moves of late have been to get guys who are many as possible. So that they have time to regenerate their farm system. Choi and their choice of our marginal AA/AAA prospects for Jason/Gentry...someone call Zduriencik1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattBloomquist is useful too...just not as a baseball player. :) He's the extra man that has the manager's back, polices the bench, and doesn't mind only playing when Seager needs an off-day.1 week 2 days ago
Gordon GrossChoi is such an As kind of player. Marte isn't, but he is talented. If we're cherrypicking low-hanging fruit to fill our bench for a couple years then yes, Gentry and Jaso would be very good for us.1 week 2 days ago
TaroYa, it makes a ton of sense. Pretty ideal backup crew either than Bloomquist. The As seem to be dealing their players for quantity instead of quality. I wonder if we could deal 2-3 non top-10 specs for those two? Both are great fits for our roster.1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattJaso is your back-up catcher and handy extra bench bat for RH Relievers (subbing in for Morrison). Gentry is your 4th OF/def replacement/pinch runner starting against tough lefties for Ackley. You run with a bench of Jaso, Gentry Bloomquist and Taylor1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattI'd give the As Ketel Marte and Ji-Man Choi for Gentry and Jaso, maybe1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattPresumably, we'd use Gentry instead of would the outfield align on those days? Would you play Gentry in RF and Cabrera in LF?1 week 2 days ago
TaroGentry is like a cross with James Jones speed (late SBs with crazy accuracy), Gut's defense (at every OF spot), and an actual bat vs LHs. Such an extreme skill set. Worth around 8 WAR since 2012 in part time play. Best 4th OF in the game IMO.1 week 2 days ago
TaroTrue, but Crisp is 35 at this point and the contract is higher than his worth IMO. Gentry may be the best RH platoon/4th OF in the game. He a RH bat with extreme career splits and one of the best defensive CFs in the game. Very nice piece to start vs LHs, and a late pinch runner/defensive replacement.1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattAh...he did slump in the last two months. Not sure I would characterize him as bad. We looking for someone who, when in the line-up, would be a better lead-off option than Jackson1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattUm...Crisp is bad? Last I checked he was one of their better hitters in 2014. And good on the bases1 week 2 days ago
TaroGentry is pretty great fit, especially if the Melky rumors are true. We're going to need a defense first 4th OF and Gentry is one of the best defensive players in the game. Definetly would not give up Taylor for him, but maybe a non top-10 spare prospect.1 week 2 days ago
TaroCrisp is a negative asset at this point with the contract hes signed too. Hes old and bad.1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattWould they do Crisp for Taylor?1 week 2 days ago
SABR Mattforget that...ask what they want for Coco Crisp1 week 2 days ago
Gordon GrossBaker should have just read my report on the TV money months ago, and the fact that we should have that to spend this offseason. The suits are not against spending money, they are against spending THEIR money. Whatever the team makes, the team can use for payroll purposes. If ticket sales go back up, they'll put that in the budget too.1 week 2 days ago
TaroMs should ring up the As about Gentry and Jaso.1 week 2 days ago
SilentpadnaWow....seems like every time I log in here I'm a time-traveller, going back and forth between days.....1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattThis is a very incoherent offseason for Beane. Why did he sign Butler if he was just going to dismantle the As?1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattBassitt is pretty interesting, and Marcus Semien is underrated. But hardly an overwhelming return.1 week 2 days ago
Tacoma RainOrc's trade Shark to the White Sox for prospects... and possibly only one really good one.1 week 2 days ago
misterjonezI also like that the team is addressing chemistry. The Seahawks are definitely showing the way there, and it's nice to see it come into play. Obviously in baseball talent trumps all, but all things equalxI like the emphasis on cohesion.1 week 2 days ago
rick82Guti can have Endy's job. He's be pretty good at it - from the right side, anyway. Good with the bat, the glove, trade bunting for power. I like it.1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattBut Guti would never be a starter here...not the way Saunders was drummed out of town for being non-durable...Guti is not the replacement. He's extra1 week 2 days ago
SABR MattGuti is probably going to come back one more time as a minor leaguer with an NRI to ST to see how he feels.1 week 2 days ago
SABR Mattthe spending we're doing this year is consistent with that plan to spend about 140 mil or so - they started the upward trend last year by signing Cano to set the stage...and it worked out realy well...made us contenders just enough to convince Cruz and maybe Cabrera to join us1 week 2 days ago
bsrBaker finally with the report confirming how much the M's new TV deal is worth: +$25M/year vs prior deal. And it didn't really kick in financially until now, which is why they didn't bump payroll as much in 2014. Bottom line, the M's will consistently have $40-50M extra to spend going forward from local and national TV money. So payroll should be in the $130M+ range that real contenders spend. Best M's news I've read in years! []1 week 2 days ago
rick82Z has a soft spot in his heart for Guti. He won't resist signing him.1 week 3 days ago
merksI would like to have Gutierrez back on a minor league deal as long as we have a starting caliber cf to begin with, which we do. If both are healthy Guti was the better player in my mind. I have no idea if he'll be able to stay healthy but worth a go.1 week 3 days ago
rick82Or is THIS the M's secret plan: The return of Franklin Gutierrez to play RF, and maybe a little CF. Guti hit a home run in Winter ball today: week 3 days ago
JDDubWith all the talk about Melky in RF batting second with his great bat control it feels like were getting setup to have the rug pulled out from under us. The Raul reunion tour was a success, so perhaps M's brass will press their luck with the return of Ichiro!1 week 3 days ago
Gordon GrossI also like that we're big on chemistry. Cano and Seager are peas in a pod. Cruz, Melky and Cano are all countrymen and close friends. I'm not huge on Melky, but can I really gripe about bringing in a 3 WAR player who is still young enough to have several good years ahead of him and is surrounded by friends who can make every day a good one? If there was such a thing as chemistry and synergy, it looks like the Ms are banking on making it work in their favor. There are worse things to mix than talent and comraderie.1 week 3 days ago
Gordon GrossSo apparently we're the favorites to sign Melky still, even as we work on J-Up or Kempster. Funny line from Heyman's article: "The Blue Jays are out, and the Mariners took care if that, by sending them Michael Saunders in trade to fill left field. The Royals, White Sox, Giants and others have been tied to Cabrera, but Seattle seems like the team to beat." Jack used a player we were not going to keep to shift the winds of change his way and bring Melky in? GMs might be thinking more than one move ahead? Nahhh... not possible...1 week 3 days ago
mojicianI want 2-3 years at Billy Butler money too. $30 million bucks would be pretty darn useful.1 week 3 days ago
SABR MattMorales wants Butler money...Boras has completely lost his blinkin' mind.1 week 3 days ago
SABR Mattbasically...Seattle's strategy this off-season is "SIGN ALL THE BATZ!!!"1 week 3 days ago
SABR MattLOL benihana...that is awesome1 week 3 days ago
benihanaHow fun has this off-season been? Fangraphs top 55 FA's? #1,2,4 Sherzer, Lester, Shields - not fits. #3) Hanley - reports are the M's pursued hard. #5) Panda - 3B not a fit, #6) Russel Martin - M's reported runner-up. #7) Headley - see #5. #8) Melky - M's rumored front-runner. #9) V-Mart - M's reported runner-up. #10) Nelson Cruz - now an M. We are in on EVERY good non-3b hitter. We've come a long, long way from the scrap heap.1 week 3 days ago
rick82From the Yesterday's News Today Department, someone didn't get the memo that his player really sucks, almost as bad as his previous work in representing him: week 3 days ago
rick82And we have a song all ready for him: "Sonny Gray, keeping the clouds away" - sing to the tune from either Sesame Street or Jars of Clay, your choice.1 week 3 days ago
mojicianFor five years of Sonny Gray, we'd have to get over Elias and Taylor. Who ever heard of a man child with perfect control of a filthy curve ball and a live and accurate fastball to complement it? Well, there was this one guy named Felix, but besides him, I can't think of anyone. Plus, could you imagine how Gray in Seattle would make Oakland fans feel? They'd have to see him at least 10 times per year. Plus, it is Gray's rightful destiny to pitch in Seattle. I thought Mariners scouts had dibs on all college players from Appalachia. How did Macnamara lose this guy anyway? Edited to add: Dan Hultzen may be mighty fine yet. There were lots of great pitchers in the 2011 draft. 1 week 3 days ago
SABR MattAs for Houston...their ballclub is definitely in position to be a problem in 2016 at the latest. But 2015 is a two-team race between Seattle and LAA.1 week 3 days ago
SABR MattLOL...I'd give Oakland Taylor and Elias for Gray. Thoughts?1 week 3 days ago
rick82I feel like I'm watching a Tolkien inspired movie. We spend three episodes on a journey to defeat some great evil somewhere, only to find out - yeah, Orcs are nasty, brutish, but short, and there's a greater evil somewhere else we have to spend three more episodes to fight.1 week 3 days ago
mojician"We wanted the Padres" almost knocked me out of my chair. :) Since the Orcs are open for business, I wonder who they want for Sonny Gray? I hear Guerrero is pretty good.1 week 3 days ago
rick82Mojican, I think we will be duking it out with the Stros going forward. Could be quite a rivalry. I mean, I hate them already, the way a Husky hates a Coug, because we should stomp on them repeatedly, and often do, then they go an win games we need against us. Stupid cockroach Lastros. Go back to the NL. We wanted the Padres.1 week 3 days ago
rick82We could have given the Orcs Ty Kelly for Moss, and thrown in a pitcher or something.1 week 3 days ago
mojicianThe Orcs traded three years of AL slugger Brandon Moss for six years of one blue chip prospect who is still trying to figure out AA? Conspiracy theory: I think that the real Beane is watching helplessly on a holotron from deep space, while an alien in a Beanesuit trashes his ball club. The aliens are either running psychological experiments on the effects of baseball on humans, or they just hate the Orcs as much as we do.1 week 3 days ago
mojicianNeed another alarming Fourthstro fact? They are growing better at an exponential rate, and they haven't spent any money yet. The Houston payroll is at $ 44 million. Jim Crane's bank account is at $2 billion. Who says he's not going to sign Lester, Scherzer and Shields just because he wants to?1 week 3 days ago
mojicianWho's afraid of the big bad 'Stros? -238 Run Differential in 2013, -108 2014. They out-Beaned Beane, getting Chris Carter out of Oakland for two years of Jed Lowrie, they poached Nolan Ryan out of Texas and are a big part of the curse of the sandbox, they shed the title "Lastros", they got an actual pitching staff with McHugh, Keuchel and Peacock, they have a real MOTO, with Fowler, Altuve, Carter and Springer, they have a rich owner, a smart front office, a rich pool of prospects, and are about to become the Thirdstros after the Oakland Yard sale of 2014.1 week 3 days ago
SABR MattI don't think this can afford to carry 2 DHs. Or 3 1B/DHs. Because we will want to carry 8 relievers.1 week 3 days ago
moethedogDoc: In regards to you platoon post (because I can't post there)...As pointed out, that sort of platoon works if you pick carefully. Lowenstein was a career .260-.346-.418 guy vR. Roenicke was a career .255-.363-.454 guy vL (and his vR career OPS was .749 so he was a "perfect" 4th OF). Those guys were unlikely to crash every other year. Earl was a genius that way. Lind and Mayberry are pretty proven commodities, especially Lind. And even in his "lost" years ('12-'13) Mayberry his lefties well. Two guys like that would also give you a 3 to make 2 1B/DH situation, adding LoMo. However, that in and of itself is pretty limiting, flexibility wise.1 week 3 days ago
moethedogSuch a platoon works best in the OF, at the corners...because you need the 4th OF anyway and it gives you a 2nd DH. In 79, for example, Baltimore had a 155 OPS RF (Singleton) and one of the best CF gloves in history (Bumbry..who wasn't a bad bat). Roenicke and Lowenstein were the perfect LF platoon, bat and flexibility wise. (same set up in '80, BTW...first year of the DH.) The hard part isn't finding the bats...but finding the bats that actually increase your flexibility.1 week 3 days ago
SABR MattSo...their line-up is now CF) Crisp 3B) Lawrie LF) Reddick DH) Butler C) Norris 1B) Davis/Freiman LF) Vogt SS) Punto 2B) Sogard - is ANYONE scared of that?1 week 3 days ago
SABR MattOakland sure seems desperate to blow up its offense.1 week 3 days ago
SABR Mattso....would you rather have Happ for 6.7 mil...or Hammel for 2X10. :)1 week 3 days ago
jemanjiTR: that's some funny stuff amigo :- )1 week 3 days ago
jemanjiSee below1 week 3 days ago
SABR MattLOL - not happening to me yet...they're just cobbling things together at the moment until they get everything to a better server...bear with them, I'm sure Doc would say. :)1 week 3 days ago
moethedogSSI has some weird stuff happening to it. I can't post on the shouts from the main SSI page...but if I click on a thread I can Shout but I have no idea if new threads are up. Sigh...1 week 3 days ago
SABR MattI don't think Cabrera is the best available option by any stretch of the imagination. I think he will help us in 2015 and us in a crucial way. I'm willing to pay a price at the end to get that if Kemp and Upton can't be had at a reasonable price. Especially since we will have cheap options by 2017...Jackson, Kivlehan etc1 week 3 days ago
moethedogLet me restate: Not a 4%$M Melky fan. Not at all.1 week 4 days ago
moethedogI'm in with jonez: Not a Melky fan. Not at all! I'm hoping this rumor one is all hot air.1 week 4 days ago
misterjonezI see the rationale for signing him, and you make the case well, Matt. I've just never liked him; he's like Randy Winn without the speed or defense. I agree that, if he duplicated his 2014 for the next two years, it would sure solidify the lineup.1 week 4 days ago
SABR MattI would agree that Cabrera is unlikely to have much upside and that in years 3 and 4, he's probably not going to be worth what we pay him due to lagging defense. Don't really care though. I love him in the 2 hole right now for hard at bats against good pitching to get the pressure on guys before Cano comes up and the money we're spending on him is unlikely to prevent us from spending hte future as the club bloats payroll.1 week 4 days ago
misterjonezI'm prepared to eat crow, but I'm not enthused about Melky whatsoever. He doesn't have any stand-out tools, his defense is deteriorating, and he's been wildly inconsistent (I understand some of that is due to injuries, but he still doesn't give me warm fuzzies). He'd be a good add if Upton or Kemp really do cost Paxton/Walker plus, since he's really only a 2nd round draft pick loss, but I really do see a 4/54 contract to Cabrera being an albatross while I don't see that with Cruz. One has a high-powered core skill to lean on while the other doesn't. I dunno...Cabrera would be alright, but I'm convinced we'll look back on that one like we look back on Carlos Silva. There's my curmudgeonly thought for the day. Still, we need a COF (at least one!) and he's available.1 week 4 days ago
SABR MattI'd like to see us get a fourth outfielder who can spell ackley against isn't crucial1 week 4 days ago
Gordon GrossYep - we have two offers on the table, one in trade and one to a FA, and first guy to take the offer wins the prize. The other guy can go hope to do as well later, but probably won't. I'm fiiiine with that tactic. And fine with a victory lap. You can't win anything in the offseason, but knowing what we needed this coming year we couldn't have prepared to win in 2015 much better than if that happens.1 week 4 days ago
SABR MattIf we do get it victory lap time for the brass? Do they go to the winter meetings just to hang out by the pool? :)1 week 4 days ago
SABR MattSo basically...the Mariners are now on the phone with Friedman saying "look, dude, you've been jerking me around all week on Kemp...I made a good offer and you almost took it, then you came back and inserted our best prospects instead. Either take our offer or we're signing Cabrera"1 week 4 days ago
Gordon GrossThe Ms are keeping the pressure on Melky by making sure he knows they could always just make a trade and leave him hanging - but also that he's their first choice for the role and they're paying him a quality salary. They don't feel like they have to go 5 on Melky, unlike the 4th year on Cruz, but are probably among his biggest offers for 4 years. Love to see em lock it down but glad they're not sitting on their hands while they wait for him to accept or just play us out like other teams have in the past by taking our offer to their "preferred" team. Gettin' close...1 week 4 days ago
Gordon GrossSome dude named Joe Rossman reported 4/54. Other reporters aren't saying that isn't the framework, just that the Ms aren't locked up with Melky yet (he's probably shopping it while the Ms do their last second dilligence). Joel Sherman: Multi execs tell me #Mariners strong frontrunner for Melky. But Sea GM Jack Z says, “that is way premature” Still looking at JUpton Kemp...1 week 4 days ago
SABR Mattwhere'd you see that?? MLBTR doesn't have anything1 week 4 days ago
benihanaThat may be an old and wrong tweet. But still. Would love it.1 week 4 days ago
benihanaMelky!!! $54 for 4!!!! Love it!!!1 week 4 days ago
rick82Saunders used to be awful in all situations :-)1 week 4 days ago
SABR MattLOL1 week 4 days ago
Tacoma RainOhhh ... now I got it week 4 days ago
SABR MattSaunders used to be awful in clutch situations but since he started centering his swing on the SS instead of the 1B, he's much more able to handle those battles.1 week 4 days ago
SABR Mattno @ symbol...all dots.1 week 4 days ago
rick82Clutchiness - It's the #1 reason I dreaded losing the Condor: 1.052 OPS in late and close last season. He was clutch the year before as well - always in the middle of any Mariner rally - and often the guy to get it started.1 week 4 days ago
Tacoma RainSo ... Not ... do I have that right now?1 week 4 days ago
SABR - head on over Tacoma...we've had many good discussions. :)1 week 4 days ago
Tacoma is that right Matt? Is there more schtick there? 'Cuz I really need more SCHTICK!!!1 week 4 days ago
SABR MattLOL...sorry doc. I had assumed that everyone here was now well aware off :-)1 week 4 days ago
jemanjiWe live to serve. But you obviously do not, as you failed to note the URL of the 'other blog.' Klat doesn't mind in the least if non-authors shill others' (unintentional) comedy routines. Consider me alienated. Maybe I'll only put up six posts Monday, just to spite you.1 week 4 days ago
SABR Mattthat's a Byte for the other blog Doc.1 week 4 days ago
SABR MattWow! I hadn't realized how "clutchy" Seager was. Maybe we should just call him the team captain and be done with.1 week 4 days ago
jemanjiIf you go to Fangraphs > Batters > Leaders 2012-14 > Win Probability > sort by Clutch … observe Kyle Seager's position on the list. Both leagues.1 week 4 days ago
SABR MattKing Felix is Tony Stark1 week 4 days ago
SABR MattHulk is CLEARLY Cruz1 week 4 days ago
Tacoma RainHopefully DJ or Kivlehan1 week 5 days ago
mojicianHeh. That about sums it up. Who is Hulk?1 week 5 days ago
Tacoma RainMy boys and their friends call Seager "Seattle's Captain America"1 week 5 days ago
mojicianYeah, Seager doesn't get his 50 something extra base hits on meatball day when the sun is shining, he had a good breakfast and the team is happy. That's not why he's worth $100 million.1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattI've been calling Seager K-Money since 20111 week 5 days ago
SABR MattEVERYONE says "that player is MONEY...they mean he is more valuable than his numbers because he is clutch...K means strike out, so that's a problem, but K-Money sounds cool to say.1 week 5 days ago
mojicianI suppose we can't call Seager S-Money because nicknames should last, and he won't be the only Seager in the bigs for very much longer. K-Money. Hmmmmm. It grows on you.1 week 5 days ago
mojicianHow is money clutch? Well, it is the most liquid asset, the easiest to spend or negotiate when there is a present need for it. It is better to have in an emergency than other valuable assets, like goodwill. Money is also clutch because clutch behavior is highly valued and should be paid.1 week 5 days ago
jemanjiFresh shtick up at . … Dr. D, like Taro, had not heard that (anagram) "Ape Ugly I Is" could be had in trade. Knowing Friedman, more likely we'd get "A Retired Hen / Trade In Here" for J.A. Happ. Somebody disagree (with basis) and we'll be happy to slap up a POTD in many, many, MANY chapters.1 week 5 days ago
mojicianIt's hard to call Seager K-Money because of the negative connotations associated with K. But, money is appropriate as it is highly correlated with clutchness, which Seager exemplifies.1 week 5 days ago
TaroPuig isn't that bad defensively. Great arm, makes some bad reads, but good footspeed. I actually think he has upside defensively a RF, and snagged a 5 WAR season despite it. GREAT hitter in a pitchers' park. Hes only 23. I think he gets even better. Hes signed for 4 years and 24 million, making him one of the most valuable pieces in the game. I'd do Walker+DJ+Jackson, but the Dodgers may prefer Walker+DJ+Taylor, which works for me as well. If he truly is available, NAB him. Don't chisel.1 week 5 days ago
jemanjiTR … Brandon League? YEAH BABY! … actually Lloyd would probably find the exact AB's that would have SrFrBoi29 worth $8M per again.1 week 5 days ago
jemanjiSABRMatt 'Scoop? :- )1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattGive them Taijuan Walker, Chris Taylor and Yoervis Medina for Puig and Wilson? We don't need that extra reliever really.1 week 5 days ago
Tacoma RainTrade for Puig? GREAT! However, instead of adding lots of minor league talent, M's should offer to take one of their bad contracts they have - like Wilson or Haren or even League. All of these are one year deals so it would not bankrupt the M's to do so.1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattDoc...there are a lot of things I have WANTED to say about ongoing discussions based on my time with the I move further from that time of employment, I am a bit more free to say some things...I just can't speak for guys who still have high level jobs. But yes...I think a big part of my sub-domain within D-O-V, along with "MLB History Today" might be another feature type "Inside Scoop" or something with comments about how someone in a top end front office might react based on my admittedly brief experience.1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattI'd get Puig with the plan of making him my first baseman after 2016.1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattPuig is one of the worst defensive outfielders in major league baseball, Taro. He's not without serious problems (not to mention, he's got a bad attitude). And I wouldn't give up Jackson (the younger) for Giancarlo Stanton, let alone Puig. Jackson is a bust-out star in the making IMHO (and in the opinions of a lot of scouts lately). I would, however, give the Dodgers Walker and DJ and a reliever for Puig.1 week 5 days ago
jemanjiSure. But your insight into how insiders think is precisely what interests us (me). There's probably way to phrase things such as "a GM would be more likely to value Cruz' 'clutchiness' than his lead analyst would. And my view is … "1 week 5 days ago
TaroPuig seriously? I'd do Walker + DJ + Jackson for Puig. 4 bargain years left. Elite player in his early 20s? If hes available that changes the game.1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattMy time with the Yankees was nothing particularly special, other than the view it gave me of how they think. General answer: how the bosses think is very different than how the analysts think...and I could describe both sides...I just don't want to be unemployable in the game by saying something that clubs would look down on as leaking sensitive info1 week 5 days ago
jemanjiAlso Matt: any time you go "the Yankees found this useful" you've got everybody riveted. :: golf clap :: In fact, if I were you I'd underline that angle for my "subdomain" at DOV … "this would have been of interest inside baseball." You've been inordinately modest about it :- ) actually not letting people know ENOUGH. … but I get that you don't want to Mike Gimbel yourself. It could be done subtly but with impact … not that Dr. D would know about subtle ...1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattThis crowd may not remember the past, but I think they like llearning about the game's history if you relate it to what they do know at least somewhat. Not sure though...but I certainly like making little history projects out of my statistical research1 week 5 days ago
jemanjiSABRMatt … I'm all over that stuff, especially because I enjoy comparing my 1970's and 1980's heroes to today. Have never understood whether today's generation has much interest in that, however, so I minimize the "Melky Cabrera to Ken Griffey Sr." comps in order to find comps the kiddies will relate to. Would love to find out that 80% of the audience enjoys Melky vs. Sr, though.1 week 5 days ago
jemanjiCaffeine: thanks so much. Grist for the mill, as far as the final decision about going ahead with New D-O-V. :: daps ::1 week 5 days ago
merksThere are two separate articles on suggesting that the Dodgers could trade Puig this offseason. One of the articles says that Joc Pederson is also a possibility. Dodgers want pitching and middle infielders. Seems like we match up with them pretty well. Any thoughts on what it would take to get Puig? Would you want Puig?1 week 5 days ago
SABR in our line-up so far, the nicknames are: CF) AJAX 2B) Robbie DH) Boomstick 3B) K-Money (dang it...I'm going to make that stick!!) 1B) SoDo LoMo C) ZUUUUUMBALL LF) Eggs, Ack, or Beardly SS) Logo, Miller-time, or crazy-legs...this is sounding like a world champion more and more...but we'll need to add the Melkman to the list.1 week 5 days ago
mojicianThree of the greatest thinkers in sports approve of the Cruz signing. #LOB #Boomstick1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattOne of the tools I was working on when I was last in the "game" in research was a rigorous skills-based player comparison the idea would be...someone throws me a request, I let the comparison tool (once honed) pick out some other players from different time periods that were most similar skill-to-skill and talk about their place in the great history of the a way for us to think about the players of today and what role they might have in history fifty years from now.1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattSo I've been thinking about an idea lately...I was wondering if the faithful here would be interested in a running series entitled "MLB History Today" wherein I take requests to look at contemporary players and draw parallels statistically and historically to players from the past and/or requests to look at historic players and compare them to players from today to give a sense of perspective on those histories? This idea has come and gone in my head for some time now, usually when watching a classic game on the MLB network (classic games are one of my favorite things...they're like a little time capsule where you get to see who was important during a different time and then you go look up their stats and read their histories...). I am wondering if the issues of the day might take on new meaning if we drew parallels1 week 5 days ago
SABR Mattthe NYC analogy would be "how do you do maintenance on a subway system that never sleeps?"1 week 5 days ago
rick82Imagine fixing a car while someone's driving it.1 week 5 days ago
CaffeineHit the refresh button for the page, even if you are opening the page in a new browser window - that seems to cure Shout Box weirdness. Really diggin&#039; the new stuff you got going on, Doc. As a rule, I don&#039;t pay for Web content. Yours (and the astounding crew around here) would be the immediate exception. This is my go-to site - the other guys just don&#039;t have the same caliber of info and &#039;tainment.1 week 5 days ago
jemanjiAh. Yes, they're migrating the site over to a different platform (or fill in the right words for 'migrate' and 'platform'!) and duct-taping until then. If I understand right. … That would explain why I'm getting odd versions of the posts and Shout Box updates depending on which device I use, maybe. They're workin' it.1 week 5 days ago
IcebreakerXDoc, the site is working better but there's some really weird things going on with the shoutbox. On some pages, it's stuck in the past, on others it's up-to-date. I imagine the dynamic nature of this is causing caching problems on the site overall.1 week 5 days ago
IcebreakerXBowden's comment about bullpen only makes sense in the context that maybe the M's are going to move some arms... Hmm...1 week 5 days ago
John PierceThink about how Z has operated the last two off seasons. Last year he signed Cano to a $240 mil contract. Tried to get him help, but I am thinking that the real money wasn&#039;t there yet. But he got Cano, easily the best player in baseball to invest that kind of money in. This offseason, the coffer doors have blown open. All that TV money is here. He tried for VMart and missed, so he shifts gears and gets Cruz. Then signs Seager long, long term to a team friendly contract. Trades for Happ to add needed depth to the rotation. Now he&#039;s on the verge of adding the last real piece to the puzzle without sacrificing any of the young guns. He has done it with a lot of thought. When you compare how Z has done to the GMs from Texas and LA, there is no comparison. I think Z has done a masterful job. Sign Melky and a few minor pickups and we&#039;re THERE, BAYBEE1 week 5 days ago
Bat571Melky's arm is better than Ackley's, but baserunners WILL run on him if he's in RF. But maybe there is more going on, though. Rios could be another piece? Or my preferred trade? Or they have Jones/Kivlehan/Blash for late inning defense? RF in Safeco is smaller, but it's still a longer throw to third or home.1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattRF and LF aren't very different. Don't think it matters much...and RF is the easier side in Safeco1 week 5 days ago
moethedogHey guys.....Melky isn't much of a RF, let's be clear. He played 2 games there last year, 6 in '12, 1 in '11 and 17 in '10. Again, I'm the contrarian. He's not my favorite guy to get....but I'll give him this: He's been pretty good 3 of the last 4 years.1 week 5 days ago
SABR Mattone wonders if it mightn't be worth it to sign both Melky and Rios. Melky to play RF and Rios to spell Ackley against lefties.1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattHeyman confirms Mariners interest in Melky and says they are willing to offer a Cruz-like deal (4/57 +/- some amount)...Cabrera wants five years and has several suitors but my guess is he will take the offer that maximizes the total commitment.1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattDoc....I see the final version of that article1 week 5 days ago
SABR Mattyes...Z sees the need for a bridge hitter to get to Cano. He wants a specific style...either a righty or a switchy...preferably a switchy...and he wants someone who can play passable RF defense...I don't fault him for that sort of thinking, although...Seager would make a fine #2 hitter if you got Kemp and wanted to stick him in the 4 hole. Or Cano for that matter. :D Melkman in the 2 hole and we keep our pitching depth...that's a WS team.1 week 5 days ago
John PierceI wonder how Z&#039;s feeling heading into the winter meetings Playing Brian Cashman. ;)1 week 5 days ago
jemanjiZduriencik emphasized a #2 hitter who bats right. As a sabe, I am appalled at the emphasis on batting order. As a 2015 fan, Melky #2 would be symphonic.1 week 5 days ago
jemanji"Paxton, Walker and Elias are ours and the Dodgers and Braves can't have them."1 week 5 days ago
jemanjiHey. Do you guys see the final version of the Melk-man article, referring to Jose Vidro in the first paragraph, or the first version, with Jarrod Washburn? On my mobile devices it shows the un-revised version first published. Grrrrr. Would really appreciate knowing.1 week 5 days ago
merksI listened to a couple of interviews with jay-z yesterday and he mentioned that he needs to get a pitcher back in a trade where he sent a pitcher out. Kind of sounded like he was talking to opposing GM's rather than the interviewer. My guess if we do trade Walker Z will want a pitcher back. Who that might be I do not know. He also said his starting staff is set and a resigning of Young is unlikely.1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattI'd just give swing innings to Wilhelmson1 week 5 days ago
Gordon GrossThat works for both teams, IMO. I'd still want another starter then, but it could be the Bartender honestly.1 week 5 days ago
SABR MattWould be fine with adding Cargo and Rosario for Walker and a reliever or something like that.1 week 6 days ago
Gordon GrossThat's why I think if we go after Cargo that Walker would be the one to get him. They have a couple of lefties in the rotation so they don't need Paxton (not that I'd give him up) and Walker is our #4 arm right now, reasonable-case. But if Cargo costs Walker (maybe Cargo + Rosario, if we're still looking for a backup C) and Melky just costs money + a 2nd round pick (since Cruz cost our 1st rounder) then it's about years and performance. Melky's a year older, they're about the same player (career WAR)... but Cargo can't say no to us. It might come down to that.1 week 6 days ago
SABR MattWalker doesn't even crack my starting rotation right now. Seriously. I put him back in AAA. Happ is a better bet than Walker. Elias is a better bet than Walker. Paxton is a better bet. Walker is literally extra.1 week 6 days ago
mojicianHere's what gets me jazzed about next year: SP 1. Felix SP 2 Iwakuma, SP 2A Paxton SP 2B The Bullpen, SP 3 Happ SP 4 Walker, SP 6 Elias SP 7 Hultzen. Say it with me. Paxton, Walker and Elias are ours and the Dodgers and Braves can't have them. The Dodgers can sign Jon Lester for $200 million, and the Braves can sign Aaron Harang or Ervin Santana or somebody.1 week 6 days ago
SABR Mattwinter meetings next week...make me a happy man, Z...git'r'done1 week 6 days ago
SABR Mattthey think they can add 10-12 mil per year and multiple years now, they can certainly afford Kemp if the Dodgers get hit with a clue bat and get more reasonable1 week 6 days ago
SABR Mattif we got him: CF) Jackson RF) Cabrera 2B) Cano DH) Cruz 3B) Seager 1B) Morrison C) Zunino LF) Ackley SS) Miller/Taylor - droooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooolll1 week 6 days ago
merksMatt what I like about it is even if they don't sign him it's a hint as to how much cash they still have to spend.1 week 6 days ago
SABR MattLet's see Seattle come in hot with a 5 year guarantee and a slightly lower AAV...I think he would take that.1 week 6 days ago
SABR MattSweeeeeeeet...per Dutton: Mariners showing increased interest in Cabrera. They covet his switch hittery-ness, his fit in the 2 hole and his outfield defense. ME LIKEY VERY MUCHY!1 week 6 days ago
merksBob Dutton is reporting that the M's are increasing their interest in Melky. 5 years $50+.1 week 6 days ago
jemanjiSure. James-style light hyperbole so nobody misses your point. … or does he still do that? Hmmm.1 week 6 days ago
SABR MattJust to be clear, I am not confident enough in that flippant remark to put money on was more to generate conversation about how awesome Happ is going to be...because he's going to be awesome. You folks are gonna feel silly for doubting this trade in about mid May1 week 6 days ago
jemanjiJust kiddin' around. :- ) … on his game, though, Iwakuma is certainly one of the 10 best in the AL. … he's got the #6 xFIP in the AL 2013-14, too. Ahead of Max Scherzer and Jon Lester, who wish to be paid rather more for their services. But yeah. If you're predicting a 'Kuma decline, sure.1 week 6 days ago
eknpdxI&#039;m curious as to why Corey Dickerson isn&#039;t being thought of since Saunders departure? I get people think he&#039;s a platoon bat, but minor league numbers suggest that ought to be tested for a season or two. And while a road .700 OPS / .150 ISO ain&#039;t something to get giddy over, his minor league track record suggests there&#039;s thump in that stick.1 week 6 days ago
SABR MattThink I went too far, Doc? I think Iwakuma will regress some in 2015...and I could see Happ throwing a 3 ERA and outpitching him. :)1 week 6 days ago
moethedogGordon: I think Romero has a chance, and I wouldn't spit if we just gave the job to Kivlehan and said, "Hit the ball, kid." But I think we will add another OF (even if he is the 4th guy) anyway. I can't see us going huge on this next deal, however.1 week 6 days ago
jemanjiEXTREMELY flippant1 week 6 days ago
Gordon GrossVery smooth, Jeff. :)1 week 6 days ago
SABR MattIt's a shame the Mariners can't QO Iwakuma...we could have a massive pile of first round picks if they could...Iwakuma, Jackson, Happ...:)1 week 6 days ago
SABR MattFlippant comment of the day: Happ will outpitch Iwakuma in 20151 week 6 days ago
SABR Mattyeah Doc...did they change to a new server with better bandwidth or something? It's loading a lot faster for me.1 week 6 days ago
jemanjiSSI is running smooth now, no?1 week 6 days ago
jemanjiWhat is the value of a Jones leveraged stolen base? Somebody should go over to Fangraphs, look up such a situation, and check the change in win probability. (That won't even factor in the M's bullpen.) Probably similar to a two-run HR in the first inning. … agreed MoeDawg. It's hard to see how you justify a PR with this bullpen and roster crunch.1 week 6 days ago
jemanjiBULLPEN DEPTH! In related news Terry, the Seahawks plan to use their first pick on a quarterback. … on a brighter note, maybe he has heard the M's have made on offer to Andrew Miller?1 week 6 days ago
jemanjiJohn - you're on a roll. Keep it comin' amigo :- )1 week 6 days ago
jemanjiJonez, Diderot, and SABRMatt noticed a bunch of J.A. Happ stuff that Dr. D had not. More detail at the orbiting satellite: week 6 days ago
Gordon GrossAgreed Moe. If we hold onto Miller (and IMO, if the option is trading for Blackmon or using Miller in RF, then by all means keep Miller for that duty - he has more upside) then we should have a RH benchie. Romero would make me cry a little cuz I don't think he's ready, so it'll have to be some OTHER righty. Still interested in Gattis for RF/C backup, and letting Miller bounce between SS and the OF. We'll see what happens.1 week 6 days ago
Gordon GrossMaybe we're looking at a smaller deal for somebody like Blackmon, though. I wouldn't be too ecstatic about that - I always worry about average-offense players who are doing well in hitters parks. Jay Bruce would scare me too, and I know the Reds are entertaining offers - but his offense outside of Cincy would not be nearly as useful even if he regains his former level - and in the Safe it could be disastrous. Cargo at least smokes the ball around the park (Ichiro-like .350 BABIP lifetime).1 week 6 days ago
moethedogIf Miller goes to RF, then the 4th OF needs to be a RHB.1 week 6 days ago
Gordon GrossI'm curious about who we're looking to get from the Rockies for the OF, though. Only Cargo is worth a big trade like Walker, and that depends on how you feel about Cargo's effort and ability outside of Coors - and whether he can stay healthy. I happen to think Cargo is a good player, not a great one - more Detroit's Carlos Guillen than an MVP candidate. But if a good hitter is all we need to make it work... we could do way worse. We'd still need another arm in that case, though - maybe Chris Young does come back at that point after all, to do a relay with Elias as we get into August and September.1 week 6 days ago
moethedogYou need a BU C, Taylor or Miller (whoever doesn't play SS), Bloomie, and a 4th OF. That's 13. Unless Jones is the 4th OF he gets in the way just to PR. That 4th OF should ideally play 1B, too. And bat RH...unless our RF can play 1B and bats RH. Jones is a great asset. More so when rosters can expand...unless he's the #4 guy.1 week 6 days ago
Gordon GrossJones is a great asset on the bases - I just wish he were better at getting on-base by himself. Still, Jones as your backup OF glove and pinch runner in some capacity would be good if you can swing it. He scares the pants off teams in the 8th and 9th innings on the bases.1 week 6 days ago
DaddyOTo me James Jones is a tremendous bench asset. It's well worth finding a way to carry him. He can win five games or so just by late-inning pinch running. His base stealing ability is so far off the charts that he changes the game the moment he enters it. He's wasted in AAA.1 week 6 days ago
mojicianJones is such a good benchie. His baserunning is the coolest. I also like how if McClendon gets a lead, Jones is a big part of late game lockdown mode. Just switch out your right fielder for Jones, call the bullpen, and do a crossword while you wait for the postgame press conference.1 week 6 days ago
SABR MattBowden is such a moron.1 week 6 days ago
SABR is in September. :)1 week 6 days ago
benihanaOff-Topic - What is the value of a leveraged stolen base? James Jones swiped 27 bases in 28 tries. Is it worth a bench spot to have a guy who can reliably move a lumberer (Cruz, Zunino, Lomo, etc.) into scoring position late in close games? Does our bullpen and tendency to be in close games matter in that equation?1 week 6 days ago
phxterryHead scratcher - Jim Bowden at ESPN listing the needs of each MLB team going into the winter meetings. For Mariners, he lists"corner outfielder and bullpen depth." Wow.1 week 6 days ago
John PierceAckley is an athlete. He started at an unfamiliar 2B and exceled. Moved to CF after the Cano trade and proved very adequate out there. Last year he spent the whole year in LF. I think he morphed into a very good fielder. I suspect, because of the mental strain of learning new positions, that his offense struggled. That could be the reason that, after he got comfortable playing his new positions, his offense seemed to pick up after the All Star break. Since he won&#039;t have to learn a new position next year, he could be primed for a breakout season.1 week 6 days ago
misterjonezI don't know if someone has already posted this, but here's the Legion of Boom welcoming the 'Boomstick' to Seattle. Good stuff :) week 6 days ago
bsr"Cruz is a winner," McClendon said. "He comes to play every day. He hits home runs, he drives in runs, he gets big hits when the game is on the line. He hits the best pitching, not just the mediocre pitching, and he is unbelievable in the clubhouse." Hard RBI's baby...I'll take 100 more, thanks. SSI has been on this concept forever and the Keith Law types still don't seem to get it for some mystifying reason. The majority of (non-SSI) online baseball analysis almost seems to have turned into its own strange esoteric academia realm at this point...only sometimes connected to the real life sport/business of baseball.1 week 6 days ago
bsrLineup protection theory...maybe the internet nerds can't quantify it but Z says it matters to the hitters: "Yeah, pitchers love pitching here. But hitters look at the lineup. As much as you think they look at the ballpark -- and they do -- they also look at the lineup and who is going to be around me and what are the chances to win? That is a huge thing when you're talking to agents."1 week 6 days ago
moethedogMariners GM Jack Zduriencik reiterated that pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma will not be traded, tweets Greg Johns of Iwakuma, 34 next season, has been excellent when healthy. Unfortunately, he’s also missed parts of two out of three major league seasons. The Mariners are already receiving calls on recently acquired starter J.A. Happ, tweets Kevin Shockey of My guess is that teams are looking to gauge how the Mariners plan to use Happ. The southpaw quietly added two mph to his fastball last season and adjusted his repertoire as a result. Some clubs may view him as a possible breakout target.1 week 6 days ago
moethedogOne option to replace outfielder Michael Saunders is infielder Brad Miller, writes Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle. The club’s outfield coach called him a natural, and he does appear to be blocked by Robinson Cano, Chris Taylor, and Kyle Seager in the infield. Taylor is obviously the weak link of the trio. After a solid but flawed debut, he could relinquish the job back to Miller. Man, what was flawed with Taylor's debut? No homers, I suppose.1 week 6 days ago
Bat571second R-L #3-41 week 6 days ago
Bat571The only thing with signing Melky is that it almost requires a trade for a bona fide RF and for using Ackley to get it - Melky fits best in LF. And Ackley really does fit best at 2B. But, if the Nats would do it, I really like the end result - Souza bats down in the lineup while he gets his feet wet, and if he starts smacking it, all to the good. He and Morrison can be a second L-R #3-4, just farther down the lineup. And Leon may be as good as Sucre with the glove, maybe better with the bat (and, like Melky, a switch-hitter), and might give Zunino more chance to work on his game. If Blowers is right and Ackley is ready to break out - well, c'est la way la ball bounces.1 week 6 days ago
Bat571So, I've talked myself into wishing for a: Jackson - MCabrera - Cano - Cruz - Seager - Souza - Morrison - Zunino/Leon - Miller lineup, with a Gattis - Jones - WillieB bench. Wonder if Santa JackZ could make it happen? Even missing on Gattis wouldn't be that bad - Kivlehan and Hicks are nearly ready.1 week 6 days ago
SABR MattI want Melkman. That is what I'm rooting for.1 week 6 days ago
Bat571Melky+Cruz+Cano+Rodney might be a combo to really get things going in the 'Pen - get some Caribbean rhythms going, add Sancocho to the menu at Edgar's, and add to the "Family Experience" as well as to the lineup credibility. .....Maybe it could be the best of both worlds?1 week 6 days ago
Bat571Just noodlin' really - but a sign Melky+trade for Gattis+trade for Souza/Leon week looks really doable from here in spud country and would really change some dynamics without cutting into the core. It would probably cost Ackley + Taylor + prospects + the Ms 2nd round choice, but would it be better in the long run than Kemp? --- I'm starting to think maybe some more guys on base + some developing power + more load sharing for Zunino might really be a better way. And having some room to chase a top starter, even if we come up short, would put the Angles, Orcs, Strangers, and LAstros on notice that the FO is on board with going for it. Then maybe next year the FAs will look at Seattle early and with more interest and won't need to be "bought" here as much.1 week 6 days ago
mojicianMcClendon will want a RH bat that scores pretty darn good to tremendous on the MSS. You have to have thoroughbreds if you want to win the Kentucky Derby.1 week 6 days ago
John PierceI&#039;d love to have him, but trading Walker for a one year rental seems excessive, especially when there are Melkys out there. Before the Happ trade, there was a dearth of quality arms behind our starting five. But, when you can get a 6&#039;5&quot; LHer throwing 95 MPH, I think that&#039;s a good thing. I liked Saunders, but not enough to call for Z&#039;s head for trading him. I do wish him luck north of the border, though. I&#039;m curious, where did the &amp;#039; come from?2 weeks 18 min ago
jemanjiThe two comps are telling John. Good stuff. Yours is probably the *visceral* reaction (to Kemp and Cruz) that most of us have. Your thoughts on renting Justin Upton?2 weeks 2 hours ago
John PierceI worry about signing Kemp, like I worried about signing either Fielder or Hamilton, a lot. I didn&#039;t have those worries after they signed Cano. Surprisingly, I think Cruz will work out well for the M&#039;s. He was probably checked for PEDs a lot last year and this is probably his retirement contract so he really has no need to juice anymore. Unless LA kicks in a ton of money, I think Kemps contract could really hamstring us.2 weeks 2 hours ago
jemanjiAt the New SSI, they say that there will be a Steroids Shout Box with hyperlinks, pics, and threading. :- O2 weeks 3 hours ago
jemanjiMojo - oh! You're Leif? Yeah, I edit my own articles and comments, sometimes 3-5 times. I gotcha. … MSS = you literally make me chuckle out loud when you get to talking about McClendon. You're thinking that he'll want what grade as the 2nd bat in?2 weeks 3 hours ago
jemanjiBat - adding Melky, Kemp, and Gattis? :- ) What is this, an attempt to dominate baseball?2 weeks 3 hours ago
Bat571IFF the M's are willing to go beyond $140M, what makes more sense, if you can get 2 of 3 - Kemp, Melky, or John Lester? Can Gattis field well enough to backup LF, 1B, and C for 3 years? Or do you move Ackley+ to the Nats and get Souza+Sandy Leon+ to cover those backups (and RF as well) and sign Melky? The signing of Cruz makes for interesting possibilities. I'd still like Kemp, but not for Walker, and Melky is looking very interesting right now if the Nats want a 2B who can back up in LF/CF to give us a RF and BU C. Then sign Lester before he's gone?2 weeks 3 hours ago
mojicianI've put up a couple of posts at new DOV, but I tread lightly at Wordpress, because I don't have any ability to edit stuff after it is posted. The editing feature is something that has kept my foot out of my mouth on more than a few occasions. The MSS grades as follows: 0-2 Horse (Manure) 2-4 Interesting 4-6 Pretty Good, 6-8 Pretty Darn Good, 8-10 Tremendous/ someone's play "makes me look smart". Tremendous is McClendon's highest ranking, except when he is talking about James Paxton.2 weeks 4 hours ago
Bat571If the Ms really are stretching the budget and signing some premium guys for the short-term, a low-price Gattis might fit in quite nicely longer-term as a backup while they pay the older guys, and then be ready to go to DH when Cruz fades. Dreaming, I know, but fun.2 weeks 4 hours ago
Bat571And there's a report that the Braves may keep Upton to get the pick when he leaves next year, but may trade Gattis to make room for Markakis. That might be of interest with or without Kemp. Can you imagine a lineup Jackson - Seager - Cano - Cruz - Kemp - Morrison - Gattis/Zunino - Ackley/Gattis - Miller or even Jackson - MCabrera - Cano - Cruz - Kemp - Seager - Gattis/Zunino - Morrison - Miller? Yes, Jackson would have to cover a lot of ground, but boy, what fun!2 weeks 4 hours ago
jemanjiMojo - you click-stepped through my own 3 reactions. The sensation was like watching Inception. …. MSS = most comforting concept I've read all day. (My day started 18 minutes ago.) … we are going to eventually see you at the New Mainframe, hopefully? http://drdetectovision.wordpress.com2 weeks 4 hours ago
Bat571MLBTR reporting that the Padres are offering Yasmani Grandal for Kemp. With the Dodger's needs, Taylor + Medina doesn't trump that? I know they want an upgrade from Ellis, and Grandal's a nice C, but.... If the Dodgers are asking for Taijuan Walker from us, it would appear there is some room to negotiate. Still would think Taylor + Medina + Guerrero would be similar to other packages for similar trades, but would adding Marlette make a difference? I'd try it. 2 MLB(tm)-vetted guys and 2 of the M's top 10 prospects wouldn't get it done?2 weeks 4 hours ago
mojicianMcClendon's scouting report on Nelson Cruz: "It is tremendous to have him in the middle of the order." McClendon also went on record to say that he wants one more right handed bat, presumably one that grades at least a pretty darn good on the McClendon Scouting Scale (MSS). weeks 5 hours ago
mojicianAfter investigating the matter, apparently, this has been going on for some time. Humidity tampering is like chemical warfare. Teams don't do it because they don't want it to be done to them.2 weeks 5 hours ago
mojicianEven worse, what prevents a team from playing hydrated balls in the top half of the innings and dehydrated balls in the bottom half of the innings? Are there ball hydration security measures out there? How do we know the Orcs aren't already doing this?2 weeks 6 hours ago
mojicianIf an enterprising groundskeeper wanted to give his team a home field advantage, he could run the game balls through a humidor, or a dehydrator as appropriate to drastically alter the play. Supposing it was J.A. Happ flyball day, he could hydrate the balls to make sure that they were all staying in the park. If the hitters were slumping, the groundskeeper could bake or dehydrate the balls to liven it up a bit. The ball looks exactly the same whether it is hydrated or dehydrated, and the weight is negligible until it takes flight, so the chances of getting caught would be minimal.2 weeks 6 hours ago
mojicianBall humidity, not air humidity, affects the pop in a baseball to an average of 2.8 mph off the bat. 2.2 mph is attributed to ball springiness, and .6 is attributed to extra ball weight. A humidor was first used at Coors field to deaden the ball. That extra five percent loss in springiness led to a 30 percent reduction in homeruns.2 weeks 6 hours ago
moethedogAlong those lines, from MLBTR: •The Rangers and Mariners join the previously-reported Cubs as teams to have checked in on outfielder Jonny Gomes, Jerry Crasnick of tweets. The veteran lefty-masher should have his choice of several landing spots, and will no doubt look to maximize his expected role.2 weeks 9 hours ago
moethedogI'm there, too Gordon. I can see Rasmus happening. He plays CF (decently +) and can move to CF if we don't sign Jackson next year. We would need to add a 4th COF with a RHB for balance. Hmmmm....Kivlehan? I like a Rasmus signing much more than Rios, for example. Melky, he should be significantly cheaper.2 weeks 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossI dunno why, but I'm expecting a Colby Rasmus type deal. Which would be odd because he's basically Michael Saunders, complete with attitudinal quirks. But Colby is still in his prime, can still play CF (which we'll need beyond this year), wouldn't help our OBP issues at all so he fits right in with the club we've got, and he doesn't cost the extra draftpick that Melky does. I wish Jack would hurry up and add the OF we need so I can stop wondering. There are a lot of options... but I figured he had a handshake agreement before moving Saunders. We'll see.2 weeks 10 hours ago
rick82Cruz/Saunders: the Mariners giverth, and the Mariners taketh away2 weeks 10 hours ago
Gordon GrossMike's message to Mariners fans (per Divish): "I just want them to know how much I appreciated their support. I can never thank them enough. They stood behind me through thick and thin, good and bad. They always had my back. They are the one thing I'm gonna miss the most. I consider them part of my family. They will always have a place in my heart." Soo... July 24th or so should be a standing ovation when Saunders comes back to visit with the Jays. I really did not want to part with him. Looking forward to seeing the plan for replacing him (even tho I think Happ will be pretty good for us).2 weeks 11 hours ago
jemanjiThe J.A. Happ discussion thread has morphed, like J.A. Happ himself. If you can load it, you won't believe Dr. D's cheek. And sorry 'bout the server issues.2 weeks 16 hours ago
Tacoma RainNow we get the news that Blake Beavan has signed a minor league deal with Arizona... What are these Mariners doing??? ... Oh wait... did I write Beavan... never mind.2 weeks 18 hours ago
misterjonezThat does seem to have become a 'must' at this point, Griz. Before, they could have theoretically punted and been ~ok, but now without their most productive OF from 2014 (on a per-AB basis, anyway) they're really going to need to solidify one of the corners. I suppose Melky could do.2 weeks 22 hours ago
j.b. Kawikaany idea why I can&#039;t see comments on the POTD post? The main page says there are 8, but when I click into the post it says zero.2 weeks 23 hours ago
MtGrizzlyJack had better land an OF now.2 weeks 23 hours ago
misterjonezAgreed on trading Walker andpicking up one of the three aces (I'd be ok with Shields) but that would work well. Still, it's a little more aggressive than even the FO seemed to signal they were willing to be this offseason. If it netted us Kemp+Shields/Lester/Scherzer, though...nah, that's probably too much money. Not sure I see an MLB-ready COF that could make an impact this year that's available. Souza, maybe, but he's no sure thing...I dunno. Happ for Saunders is interesting, but it really does call a few things into question.2 weeks 23 hours ago
IcebreakerXGo Blue Jays.2 weeks 1 day ago
SilentpadnaDoc, site is all out of whack today....Originally tried to put the shout below into the "paradox" post comment section. No luck. Logging in is tough.... navigation not responding....just an FYI - as if you needed it.2 weeks 1 day ago
SilentpadnaGet Lester or Sherzer. The offense ain't a juggernaut of course. If you can't give in to the con artists who want your aces, you always have alternatives. There are two sitting out there right now. They have the cash earmarked, which is useless until they deploy it. So deploy it. Get me some Scherzer or Lester. Cool by me. Then, if you have to trade Walker, you make THEM add the sweeteners.2 weeks 1 day ago
GrumpyBlarg.2 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogIf we trade Walker for one year of Upton and we don't win a World Series I'm going to cry out loud. One year of Upton? Justin Upton is very nice. Not THAT nice.2 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogMe thinks he dith protest too much. Well..."dith" probably isn't a word. It's as close to the past tense of "doth" as I can come up with. I just get the sense he and the Skipper had it out in private one time.2 weeks 1 day ago
mojicianI don't get what the Mariners had against Saunders. He was a 1. Fan Favorite, with 2. The coolest nickname on the team, 3. He was worth the arbitration money that he was owed next year, even if he only played 70 games, he slotted as a fourth outfielder like peas and carrots. I also don't get why he complained about playing time when he had an advanced injury history. Maybe behind closed doors, the Condor squawked too much. Or something.2 weeks 1 day ago
Tacoma RainThe $7 to 10 million in this market probably buys you one whale of a pitcher... be it Masterson or Liriano or ....2 weeks 1 day ago
Tacoma RainLast point... with the winter meetings happening in a couple days, why not wait to see if you could get more? Was Jack actually worried that Happ was the best he could do for Saunders? in this offense starved market?2 weeks 1 day ago
mojicianGood point Tacoma. Condor had better not dive for anything in Toronto.2 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogI would like to dislike this move, as Daddy does, but I can't bring myself to. I don't like it, mind you. But moving Saunders for something not-terrific was a fait accompli a while back. If we move Taijuan for Kemp now, well....I won't know what to say. With guys available for lesser things, I think I would dislike that move. To tell you the could probably get Craig for a very affordable amount. Now that I would be WAY in for! Will take Souza, BTW....and grin ear-to-ear. Gordon is probably right about Kivlehan, he's not ready "now." The question is whether he would be ready by June 1st? On that, I will not bet against him. In fact, I would bet a fair sum on him.2 weeks 1 day ago
Tacoma RainBy the way, if Saunders and his $3.5M salary are worth Happ and his $6.7M salary... then Jack should be able to trade Erasmo for Allen Craig or Victorino & cash.2 weeks 1 day ago
Tacoma RainHow much does Jack hate Saunders to send his beaten up body to the astro-turf in Toronto. There is no way Saunders will survive 50 games per year actually played in Toronto.2 weeks 1 day ago
DaddyOBy itself I do NOT like this move. My only hope is that other larger but related moves make how I feel about this one irrelevant. Say, for example, that we get Kemp at a greatly reduced cost in exchange for Walker. I don't want to give up Walker...if we do Kemp should come with some very serious salary offset.2 weeks 1 day ago
Bat571I've really wanted Kemp, but not if it costs Taijuan or any of the other "core" guys (Taijuan, Paxton, Miller, Zunino). D.J. I'm less attached to, especially now that Seager has been extended. But if the Ms could get Souza for Ackley (to play 2B for the Nats), and they could sign Melky for ~4/$60M, it probably is better now than getting Kemp at the price they're talking. And "scrap-heap" is what Happ is - once a prized prospect, now likely Noesi redux. Bleeeccchh!!! Go get Melky, Z, and lets get the Dominican dancing going in the 'Pen.2 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossI swear, if they trade Taijuan because they got a scrap-heap #5 pitcher and we don't get a juggernaut, I'm gonna be... upset. Yes, Safeco will help Happ with his flyball problem. That's not a good enough reason for trading the baby wunderkind. Especially not if it's in this ludicrous Walker + DJ + other stuff deal for Kemp. Kemp had better cost us about a buck-forty-seven in salary if that's the case.2 weeks 1 day ago
Bat571Happ, year in, year out has allowed > league average OPS to opposing batters. The suggestion (from Morosi on MLB TV) that he's coming in to allow trading Taijuan Walker makes me ill. Why couldn't they just have signed Chris Young? He's probably available for the same $6M+ they're going to pay Happ. I just don't get this at all. Is there some other team that *wants* Happ and there's more to come?2 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossWell, Happ is the #5 starter we were looking for (assuming Felix, Kuma, Taijuan and Paxton are 1-4). That puts Elias on the outside looking in, which is fine - he's the best #6 around, and can throw half the year in Tacoma til we need him. And we've made the hole in RF as moe said... now it's time to fill it. Romero isn't ready. Kivlehan isn't ready (but is good at doing things he's not ready for). Miller doesn't have enough bat for a full-time gig there, I don't think - not with Jackson and Ackley as the other two OFers. Go find me a bat, Jack. Now we really need one. Best of luck to the Condor, in health and in the lineup.2 weeks 1 day ago
Bat571At this point, I've come around to the idea that OBP up top is the next need. So, Melky Cabrera makes more sense to me now - LF and batting 2nd. Then trade Ackley (+ Medina +?) to Washington for Souza to play RF and for Taylor Hill and/or Felipe Rivero for AAA starters that *could* go into the rotation if there's a problem. Frankly, I don't see much in Happ - I think Elias is better. Sad day for me.2 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogHapp gets beat by walks, homers and base hits. At least in Safeco the homers will decline a bit. Saunder's value wasn't great, was it? Someday we will read the behind the spin story of how the Condor ticked off a manager and a FO. But this means there is another roster move. We are now short a RF. Unless it is Romero/Kivlehan/Miller.....2 weeks 1 day ago
malcontentAlso, drool over that Toronto offense now that they have the final piece.2 weeks 1 day ago
malcontentFun fact about J.A. Happ. In 2007, his average Fastball velocity was 87.7 MPH. It's risen every season since and was 92.7 last season.2 weeks 1 day ago
okdanYup. Saunders to Toronto for JA Happ. The Condor has left the nest.2 weeks 1 day ago
malcontentSomehow I always expected Condor to end up in Toronto2 weeks 1 day ago
Tacoma RainDoc - I had trouble logging in this morning, but I was able to refresh the site at lunch time - and everything cleared up for me2 weeks 1 day ago
jemanjiMatt says he's having trouble logging in. I'd ask if anybody else does, but they'd be unable to shout back, right? Maybe DOV The Sequel is the place to answer that ...2 weeks 1 day ago
jemanjiOn both of those, I'd need the inside medical info … know any physical trainers who could comment?2 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossWondering if anybody wants to take a shot on Medlen or Ogando for that #5 slot that could push Elias back to AAA/long relief as insurance or playoff-stretch planning.2 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossJose Campos absolutely destroyed the NWL as an 18 year old. He's never been healthy since, and he's lost a foot or two off his fastball. I expect the Yanks to re-sign him, probably, because even with his injury woes he's still had his control whenever he can get into games. They'll probably convert him to relief, see if he can emerge as a Rafael Soriano type. if they don't want to try that, I'm fine with picking him up and seeing what he's got left. Kid had a tremendous and accurate arm.2 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossKinda love that Seager's option year becomes a player option if he's traded (thus making him less likely to be traded) AND would be a drop in price if his performance or heath declines in previous years. He wants to be here for his career. Seager is signing up for a place in the Mariners panthoen. He wants to stay here, not just get paid.2 weeks 1 day ago
Tacoma RainAlso worthy of a wry smile - Campos non-tendered by the Yankees. Hard to imagine Hector is the best player from the trade currently.2 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogAnd Carlos Rivero, we hardly knew ye.2 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogToronto non-tendered Smoak. Dierks, too. He will find a job, I think. He was injured all of last year but he isn't terrible and he had a very nice '12.2 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogHeisey isn't Van Slyke. He doesn't hit...and his value is that he can play CF, although he has played it less the last couple of years. He almost seems to be an acquisition before they dump some other OF. If we're trading Ackley for Van Slyke I would be just fine. I think the Dodgers will keep him. I'm not sure what Heisey is about.2 weeks 1 day ago
misterjonezThat makes Seager ours for a long, long time. Glad to have him in the fold.2 weeks 1 day ago
MtGrizzly@timdierkes: Breakdown on Kyle Seager: 2015: $4MM, '16: $7.5MM, '17: $10.5MM, '18: $18.5MM, '19: $19MM, '20: $19MM, '21: $18MM. '22 option for $15-20MM.2 weeks 1 day ago
SABR Mattmerks - there is definitely an argument for Van Slyke...I just wonder whether the Dodgers will ask us for something too good to give up2 weeks 1 day ago
SABR MattThey do seem to be in an awful big hurry to replicate the Astros' model for success.2 weeks 1 day ago
merksMatt I was thinking that Van Slyke would be the right handed bat to Saunders, Ackley and Lomo. All three of those hitters are prone to slumps. If given some time off with a quality rh hitter to take their place and keep them fresh I could see it helping all three in the long run. If the M's could get a big upgrade in right field then that would be great but if they can't afford another big time contract then I would be pretty happy with Van Slyke.2 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossThe Padres are such a weird team. I thought they might non-tender him - trouble with the law, AND steroids, AND injuries AND a terrible 2014 were probably too much for them. And reasons we could still get value for our SS, neither of whom have had problems with any of that (well, Miller had a pretty bad few months in '14). But the Pads seem committed to making sure no talented players remain on their roster, for reasons that are opaque to me.2 weeks 1 day ago
SABR MattEverth Cabrera's non-tender causes problems for the Mariners if they expected to get good value for their SS guys. Teams will be saying "why can't I just go sign Cabrera? He's pretty talented you know, and your guys are no more certain than he is to rebound and produce for me," The Mariners should not trade either of their SS duo until Cabrera signs.2 weeks 2 days ago
merksTorii Hunter to the Twins. Ok with that.2 weeks 2 days ago
SABR MattDon't think Van Slyke is enough unless we keep Saunders and Taylor+Miller. Can we get Van Slyke without giving up those three?2 weeks 2 days ago
merksSo with the Dodgers trading for right handed hitting outfielder Chris Heisey does this free up Van Slyke to be traded? Inquiring minds want to know. Would love to obtain a RF/1st base right handed hitter right about now and Slick would be the man. Get him 350 ab's and call it good.2 weeks 2 days ago
SABR MattTHey're worried about his arm AND they are trying not to waste money on a losing season.2 weeks 2 days ago
jemanjiWould make no sense, but for the suspicion that the Braves are real worried about his elbow -2 weeks 2 days ago
moethedogKris Medlen was non-tendered. He's an arb guy and will probably get $9M or so. Somebody will get a nice pitcher.2 weeks 2 days ago
moethedogExcellent stuff, Doc. Two thumbs up!2 weeks 2 days ago
jemanjiOkey doke, new article at Drive home safely.2 weeks 2 days ago
moethedogSaunders is better than Ackley in my book. Not so in the Skipper's book, I feel. I would rather keep the Condor. Alas, it isn't likely. Either way, I would be really in on getting Souza, who I think will be a player. And if we're going to try to add a veteran OF after that, I would have no problem with adding Colby Rasmus...he seems to be slipping under the radar. He was a plus CF glove in '12 and '13 and over the last 3 years he's vR OPS'ed .740-.893-.752 and vR ISO'ed .200-.270-.231. It ain't fashionable to say, but he's better than Ackley. If we had a cheap Souza, then 2 RHB and 2 LHB OF's works nicely. I get the sense that we like Romero to help this year, as well. Rasmus might become pretty cheap for a couple of years. Let Jackson go after the year and stick him in CF. He K's, but he's a decent slugger, too.2 weeks 2 days ago
SABR MattHave added the new DOV to the bookmarks...sweeeet2 weeks 2 days ago
jemanjiA bit of new discussion at … and an explanation of how the City In the Clouds could serve the Valley Dwellers2 weeks 2 days ago
SABR MattSullivan's article on Cruz contains a massive flaw. He notes that Steamer projects Cruz to be worth 1.5 wins in 2015...but that is with steamer's assumption that he'll be worth -17 runs on defense. How can he be worth -17 runs on defense if he's DHing?2 weeks 2 days ago
SABR MattI'd be willing to give them Saunders and a good reliever...not more than that.2 weeks 2 days ago
Gordon GrossVictor: .320/ .390/ .490 in the minors, .9 EYE. Yasmani: .310/ .410/ .490, .7 EYE. Victor's a tough mark to hit, but Grandal does have a lot of talent at the plate while providing us with some roster flexibility since he can still catch as a backup. I would give up more than Saunders to get him - partly because the Ms seem to hate Saunders for some weird reason, and if he's gonna go I want to replace him with a real hitter with upside, not a schmuck. Instead of Fister and Souza, maybe try for a year of Kennedy and get Grandal?2 weeks 2 days ago
moethedogA back up catcher....that's our need. A clarification....2 weeks 2 days ago
moethedogGrandal for Saunders is a perfectly balanced trade. They want a RF and wee need a C, so it needs mutual needs as well.2 weeks 2 days ago
Gordon GrossWhich is why they shouldn't scoff at Saunders. Both guys are actually in a place to be able to rehab their careers. Yasmani was undeniably rushed (just 755 minor league PAs) and he's been injured. He was a .310 hitter in the minors, so I sorta doubt he's a .225 on in thebigs like he was last year. If you think Zunino has a bunch more game to get, well so does Grandal. But he can't catch full-time and doesn't have .200 ISO power (yet) in the bigs. Victor Martinez had 1800 minor league PAs, then exploded on the scene as a poor defensive switch-hitting catcher with moderate-but-not-scary power who moved to 1B and DH.2 weeks 2 days ago
TaroYeah okay, Grandal isn't worth impact talent.2 weeks 2 days ago
SABR MattIf the Padres think that they can get a lot more than Saunders for Grandal...I'm out.2 weeks 2 days ago
TaroGrandal is a good call. Perfect fit for our roster. Souza + Grandal seems pretty doable as well.2 weeks 2 days ago
ThirteenHrm. Asked Sullivan today about Grandal/Saunders; he said he gets the feeling the Padres are wanting an impact talent and Condor's not nearly enough. Blergh. I'm also strongly against Hunter or Rios, by the way. TOo old and slow.2 weeks 2 days ago
SABR Mattto get Souza and Fister, we'd need to give up Miller or Taylor, which renders the other guy a FT SS and means he can't help in the outfield. If we are making Souza our aRF, I'd want to sign a veteran to be our 4th OFer...someone like Torii Hunter or Alex Rios2 weeks 2 days ago
Gordon GrossAfter Grandal, go get Souza for RF and call it a day for the lineup. He's a bit fragile, but LoMo and Cruz can play out there some, and if we keep Miller he's gonna need multiple positions to fill in at too, as would Willie. We can use RF like some teams use DH, weirdly. We'd still be bulging at the seams with DJ and Kivlehan and Marte prepping for the 2016 team, not to mention the second tier guys (one of whom might surprise). Something like Fister, Souza and Grandal would round us out very nicely.2 weeks 2 days ago
GrumpyI'll be very disappointed if we trade Condor be wise of some stupid hissy-fit.2 weeks 2 days ago
benihanaSaunders for Grandal would be a perfect move to shore up our bench as the back-up 1B/C. I'd even toss in a relief arm or a lower level prospect. Then go sign Melky! I can't stop dreaming about a line-up that goes rejuvenated Austin Jackson, Melky Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager... talk about putting the pressure on early... and 13 - reading Loyd's comments on Austin in Greg Johns article today - sounds like the M"s are counting on Austin, not hedging.2 weeks 2 days ago
SABR Mattthe great value inherent in having a back-up catcher who can also play first base when Morrison needs to sit against a tough lefty cannot be understated. Our bench, then, would be Grandal, Bloomquist, Taylor and a fourth OFer.2 weeks 2 days ago
SABR Mattthen, however, we'd have to acquire a full time right weeks 2 days ago
SABR MattIf the Padres would do Saunders for Grandal straight up, I'd jump all over that.2 weeks 2 days ago
Gordon GrossI was hollering for Grandal when we went out and got Jaso in 2011. For the difference in expected price, I didn't mind Jaso. Then of course we dumped Jaso because he can't catch full-time and doesn't hit enough for a non-Oakland team at another position. Well Grandal CAN hit enough to play a chunk of first base, and catch enough to back up Zunino for 40 games a year. The park won't scare him - it'd be an IMPROVEMENT. He has a noodle arm, but so did Jaso. Just don't let Grandal catch against the Royals and we'll be fine. I'd be down with that for the right price, Logan, you betcha.2 weeks 2 days ago
ThirteenAlso... we've heard Jack is trying to get the best possible return for Saunders. But we've also heard he's going to be gone by Christmas, and probably by the winter meetings, no matter what. So I wouldn't cross my fingers real tight.2 weeks 2 days ago
ThirteenNot with his ruined knees, no.2 weeks 2 days ago
rick82No word on Willie learning the catcher position in a Latin American country somewhere?2 weeks 2 days ago
drmI'm not sure Saunders is gone. I kind of feel, he would have been gone already if they really planned on giving him away for nothing? Maybe he'll be part of a bigger trade?2 weeks 2 days ago
Tacoma RainYeah Thirteen, I think it is just a matter of time now for Saunders. Lloyd refused to play him in center despite the struggles of others. Then with Austin's flop here in Seattle, I believe that Jack has to have a back-up plan that is NOT Jones or Endy. Maybe Bourjos?? I'd rather have Fowler.2 weeks 2 days ago
ThirteenHey, come to think of it... what's this team doing with its bench? You've gotta have a backup C. You're definitely keeping Miller AND Taylor in the majors at this juncture. Then you need a fourth outfielder. So is LoMo starting at 1B vs. LHP? Or is Willie Bloomquist off the team? Hey man, thanks for the leadership, but Brad Miller does your job better, and we really need the roster slot...2 weeks 2 days ago
ThirteenSo, Saunders is gone. That relationship is fractured probably beyond repair. I'd be interested to see the Mariners try to flip him and a reliever for Yasmani Grandal - another player who broke his relationship with his team, but looks to be actually pretty good. We know they were in on Martin, and Sucre's not the loveliest backup C at the ball. Grandal can back up LoMo too.2 weeks 2 days ago
Tacoma RainI think Jack / Mariners believes they need another / 4th OF. One who can play center BETTER than Saunders, and one who can bat right handed as well. I do not know if Souza fills that hole. Something tells me it may be Fowler.2 weeks 2 days ago
Gordon GrossI'm curious where Jack goes next. If he believes in his guys, then I would expect a Hunter or Gaby Sanchez type add, or a trade for a minor piece that can fix a wound in the roster rather than replace an actual player. He'd want Saunders and Ackley there, as well as another RH outfielder. Saunders gives him redundancy and an emergency CF if Jackson never recovers. It allows him to make deadline trades with more major league pieces. If you keep both Miller and Taylor then you can let it play out a little longer before having to choose who stays and who goes (or trade Ackley instead of Miller, for instance).2 weeks 2 days ago
TaroI personally would do Ackley+RP in a heartbeat for Souza if that does it for the Nats. Or Chris Taylor +RP + spec. Saunders+Souza are your corner OFs and your roster is basically complete.2 weeks 2 days ago
TaroOnly question on Cruz is whether or not he'll have the motivation to continue juicing. For the money and Ms playoff prospects, I hope he does. Too bad we didn't nab him last year.2 weeks 2 days ago
Gordon GrossKeith Law dislikes the Cruz deal, ergo I know I'm fond of it. I expect Cruz to go somewhat like Sexson (great first year, good second, and then it can get slightly messy). As long as we're willing to stay flexible and will promote a DH who is hitting if he drops off, it ain't that big a deal. If we'd had a hitter to replace Sexson internally it wouldn't have been THAT messy. Most big clubs will take that swing, and Cruz is not a sloppy platoon-heavy player - he's got some give in his game. If we win a World Series in the meantime, who cares? Let Jack promote someone in '18.2 weeks 2 days ago
Tacoma Rainagreed that Ackley is worth more than Souza. That is why the Mariners need to add pieces to get Fister or Zimmerman... but I think Ackley is more of what the Nats want2 weeks 3 days ago
GLSI don't think you should have to give up an established ML position player for Souza.2 weeks 3 days ago
GLSIt's the Ackley upside I'm interested in, the breakout potential. I think we all know it's there. But even if "the breakout" doesn't happen, he's a decent bet for 2 WAR next year, as are both Taylor and Miller.2 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogAckley is a .401 OBP guy in 694 AAA PA's. Just .309 in the bigs. Souza is a .432 OBP guy in 407 AAA PA's. It's a pick 'em who is the better top of the order guy. But if it were down to Ackley/Taylor/Miller to be the MLB part of a package to the Nats, I would prefer Ackley. Souza can play CF as well...or did in AAA last year. weeks 3 days ago
GLSPersonally, I'd like to keep Ackley. I think he's probably our best shot at getting a true OBP guy in the batting order, though Souza could be that guy too. And I like Miller sharing time in the outfield this year, especially center if Jackson's bat doesn't come around.2 weeks 3 days ago
Tacoma RainI'm with Moe - trade Ackley and pieces (combination of Erasmo/Maurer/Choi/Morban/Medina/Romero/other minor league guys) and get Souza and Zimmerman2 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571facing, not just seeing!2 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571Personally, to get Fister and Souza I'd rather offer Taylor + Sanchez/Pike + ? (Guerrero/Morban/Choi? - they're thin in corner outfielders on their farm and have to be thinking who is lined up behind Werth if they trade Souza). It's an overpay, but Miller has too much upside to give up in my view. They're desperate for a 2B - let's offer the guy we probably won't regret (the Jack Wilson type), rather than the one we might regret seeing in the 2015 WS.2 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogI think the natural guy to play 2B for the Nats is Dustin Ackley. The guy was a GG finalist there. Ackley for Souza gets close, I think. I actually read a thread the other day where somebody suggested turning Souza into a 2B!2 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossYou're not selling high on Miller... but sometimes the point is to get what you need, not to maximize your value in said trade. I dunno. I'd have to think about it, but I'd probably do that. Like you said, it hinges on Souza and Taylor and what we think they bring to the table. Souza has had 3 years of crushing people in the minors, but he doesn't play full seasons. IMO he'd have quite a nice 400 PAs for us, giving Ack and Saunders days off, which we need more than a SS platoon.2 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossThey need a second baseman so badly their mascot cries whenever Danny Espinosa swings a bat. So I guess it would depend on how they feel about Miller at 2B. He was not much better than Espinosa last year in flat performance, but park-adjusted and bounce-back-assumed I'd think Miller absolutely gets that nod. I'd rather trade them Marte, but he's not ready for a major-league job next year. And Taylor is a better defensive SS than Miller, though not exactly Brendan Ryan with a glove.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattI'd do that G...not sure DC would, though. Their incentive would be if they believed in Miller as a long term SS solution...our incentive would be if we believed in Taylor and Souza both as long term options.2 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossQuestion: Fister + Souza for Miller + Victor Sanchez-ish? That gives you your arm and your bat, if you believe in Souza's ability to translate to the bigs a la Matt Carpenter (and I basically do). I don't think you can get Jordan Zimmermann out of DC without coughing up Walker, but Fister is a different matter. That guy keeps being under-rated, and we know he and Safeco get along just fine. And you'll get a draftpick pick back for him after the year if he has even a decent one.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattI'd be all for adding the Melkman. Would the Mariners consider that? They are saying they are still interested in maybe?2 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossWe just lost the #19 pick in the draft for signing Cruz (keep in mind we have a sandwich second-rounder around #70 as a competitive balance pick, which we could actually trade if we didn't want to trade a prospect). Rios and Hunter don't cost another pick, which is good. Alternately we could trade for a right-handed OF, since we're probably gonna have too many players to protect in the Rule 5 as soon as next season. We have our primary bat addition - now we just need another one.2 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaAre we all in? Are we really all in? Sign Melky Cabrera!2 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogI would expect that the next move will be a smaller one, less splashy and shorter in duration. Hunter's $8Mx2 doesn't work well now, I think. Plouffe would be a wonderful addition, but would cost prospects (which we can afford). If Cruz is a fulltime DH we need a fulltime RF'er. It isn't Ackley. That means we keep Saunders or swap either he or Ackley out for that RF guy. Not counting Kivlehan, of course....and I expect we should count him in.2 weeks 3 days ago
PlawsableI like the Cruz move, but think we needed to add a .350 OBP and .320 OBP to get the offense over the top. Cruz is a .320, as is Hunter. If you&#039;re replacing Saunders .323 in 13 and .341 this year, I don&#039;t think Hunter is likely better. Ackley had been basically .300-.320 the last couple years, if he ever breaks out it would be over .320. If you&#039;re talking OF corners the obvious upgrades are very few before there&#039;s a question of who would produce better. Even just comparing Saunders to Kemp or Justin Upton in projecting is dicey in my opinion. Steamer has Saunders pegged at .244/.324/.405/.730 which he did better than at age 25 and 27 but about exactly that at 26. The player I saw putting up the .791 OPS this year looked little like that to me and much more like the .803 and .808 players Kemp and Upton are projected to be. Am I out of my mind? Health could kill the counting stats but rate wise he seems close to that group already and turned 28 a couple weeks ago.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR Mattyep...the way forward, I think, is to sign Hunter or Rios, Gaby Sanchez and Masterson and wait for the trade deadline to see if we need to add any more. We could enter the 2015 season sporting a vs RHP line-up of CF) Jackson LF) Ackley 2B) Cano DH) Cruz 3B) Seager 1B) Morrison RF) Saunders C) Zunino SS) Miller and a vs. LHP line-up of CF) Jackson RF) Hunter 2B) Cano DH) Cruz 1B) Sanchez 3B) Seager/Bloomquist C) Zunino LF) Ackley/Bloomquist SS) Taylor (the bench is Bloomquist, Taylor, Sucre and Hunter/Saunders, the rotation is Felix/Kuma/Paxton/Walker/Elias/Masterson and the pen is basically the same as last year but with a higher upside second lefty instead of Beimel (the new guy we just added who is a lot of Oliver Perez).2 weeks 3 days ago
MtGrizzly@jaysonst: What's next for #Mariners? It won't be trading Iwakuma. Asked one exec how available he was. Answer: "Not. They're adding, not subtracting."2 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossOh, and Matt - if you want to talk about publishing or put another pair of eyes on your novella, let me know. As for marketing, it's usually best to have more than one book to offer when trying to make headway, but that doesn't mean you can't publish now and market later. It's harder to sell novellas, though - if you CAN tie them together in one book, that's probably best. Again, talk for a later day. g dot moneyball at gmail, y'know.2 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossYup. Which is why I don't trade anything important unless it's for a serious upgrade. Walker and Elias should stay. If Hunter has a little more in the tank, a la Ibanez a couple-three years ago, then that's fine. Heck, I'd be fine with trading for somebody like Trevor Plouffe or Dayan Viciedo, who both OPS .830-ish against LHP - because neither guy should be all that expensive prospect-wise. Plouffe could give Seager that elusive rest he keeps missing out on, too (tho I'd expect him to be the more expensive trade option). One more bat against lefty pitchers, keep Saunders, add an arm and go to battle.2 weeks 3 days ago
SammySosoRobinson Cano was the only Ms player with an OBP over .334 last year. I don&#039;t really see that getting much better with current personnel. My plea would be that the next add helps out on that front, maybe in the 2-hole, or else Cruz won&#039;t likely be the 100 RBI guy we want him to be.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattSS should hit better in 2014...i'm pretty optimistic about that...CF should as well, but even if Jackson only hits .260 with little power and average walks...he's a 15 run upgrade over Jones and co. I like our chances to win 95 games in 2015 with Cruz onboard if we can get a solid RH outfielder and some pitching depth.2 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossWhat Matt said. Cruz isn't going to post an OPS below .610, like Mariners DHs have done FOUR times in the last 7 years. We paid to make sure that hole is patched with a plus bat. If we can patch one more (even just another upgrade against lefties), we should be in good shape even WITHOUT a huge bounceback from Jackson or offensive increase at SS or C, all of which are possible from our glove positions.2 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossNelson was not my preferred get, HOWEVER: His career OPS is .830. I dunno how far down you wanna adjust that for age curve and park factors, but please consider these numbers: .723, .656, .746, .608, .747, .609, .650, .597, .781, .567. Thats our DH OPS by year since Gar retired. One year over .750. ONE. I don't expect Cruz to hit 40 bombs again, but he could fall a LONG way from last year and still post one of the best DH seasons we've had in the last decade+. We're paying him for the surety of a better-than-100-OPS+ season. If he and Morrison can stay healthy and productive, we could go a long way.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattCruz, by himself, adds 40 runs to the Mariner run differential as the DH. If we do get another outfielder of any merit, he replaces the 400 PA we gave to lousy right-handed hitters like Romero and Hart in the OF...and could be worth another 20-25 runs added to the RD. If we can find a replacement for Young (or Young himself again...but I prefer Masterson)...we could be looking at a club that posts a 150+ RD.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattGordon...I would absolutely take the Mariners current depth chart (all sides of the ball) over Oakland's at this point. They're not done making moves, so we'll see what the final picture is...but I think we've got to be favored to beat Oakland...the worry is Anaheim.2 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaHow is this any more of an overpay than V-Mart at 4/68? Cruz has more positional value since he actually can play a passable RF is 2 years younger and is projected to hit for more power. I believe WAR over-values OBP, particularly for clean-up hitters. Either way, big time improvement for a position in dire need of one.Even if he's only worth 2 WAR next year that is a 4 win upgrade over the DH position from last season.2 weeks 3 days ago
mojicianIchiro style: "If that is true (Cruz signing) it would give me great joy. But I don't believe it."2 weeks 3 days ago
rick82Considering we were speculating 4/70 mil for Cruz (which I never bought, myself), this deal sounds great.2 weeks 3 days ago
mojicianObi-Wan style: " Is Cruz not the chosen one? Is he not to destroy the Angels and bring balance to the lineup?"2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattMariners are still interested in outfielders, according to Dutton - means Cruz is the DH which is good news. Alrighty...we still want Kemp and possibly Upton but are not willing to part with Walker to get those guys (reasonable)...the fallback options are Hunter and Rios...reasonable too...let's see what Jack can do here.2 weeks 3 days ago
diderotI wonder if this flips the deck in our favor in one sense. Free agents still aren&#039;t going to like all the travel...but all of the sudden, does the &#039;contender&#039; label now work in our favor? If you&#039;re Torii Hunter, don&#039;t we look like a better bet to get to the Series than his other suitors? With Cruz, seems like our chances are better than either the Royals (sans Shields and Butler) and the Orioles (sans Cruz). I like him for a year...if he&#039;ll take that. And he doesn&#039;t necessarily force Saunders off the team. Plus, leaves the 2016 door open for DJ, Kivlehan and...who knows...Montero. Gaby Sanchez? Absolutely. Anderson and/or Masterson doesn&#039;t blow up the payroll, and along with Hultzen gives us necessary depth. And we&#039;re done--without spending ONE trade chip.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR Mattmoe - 2014 may be an outlier high, but his component stats are actually improving, not getting worse...his age suggests he'll get less consistent eventually, but DH'ig probably delays that some. If he's our DH, he's a 2.5-3 win player in 2015 and 2016...that's worth about 32-40 million on the open market. For just those two years. Years 3 and 4 he would just need to produce 2-3 WAR TOTAL to be worth the money.2 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogIt's a big overpay. Too big, I fear. Matt's "Year 4 is free" is true if he produces for three years. From '11-'13 he was a 1.9, 2.2 and 2.4 oWAR guy (and I'm not including his negative glove). Moving forward that level of production is about what to expect. I wouldn't be surprised if we get something like his '12 season out of hem next year. 24 homers and 45 doubles is nice (in Texas) but I'm not sure it's 22 Million nice. What he does have going for him is the indication that much DH'ing helps keep him healthy. He DH'ed 80 times last year...the most he had ever done prior was 8...and he achieved a career high in games and PA's. I wouldn't have done this deal a year ago and I don't like it now. But our goose is cooked in some manner, trades have come and gone and FA's inked and the market is slimmer. C'est la vie....I suppose. I hate huge overpays. I'll trust he mashes lefties. If not...oh oh....2 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571I'd rather just re-sign Young to a nice 2-year deal with incentives and options to suit - if 'Kuma leaves after next year, he'd be around to help. I suppose he wants a major league deal, so they may have to wait now until after the Rule 5 draft (although dropping Logan Bawcom now wouldn't hurt that bad). But I'd rather have a guy that understands the dynamic of the young arms here than some one who wants 33 starts, period.2 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossMatt: we're looking like (Infield: Zunino, LoMo, Cano, Seager, Taylor/Miller combo pack) (OF: Ackley, Jackson, Saunders for now) (DH: Cruz) right? I don't see how that's not better than Oakland's lineup you just posted, both offensively and defensively.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR Matt(and because we don't need to plug a rotation hole for four years...only one)2 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossThe Ms seem to always get the wrong years on free agents - a year early or a year late on hitters not named Cano. If Cruz can hit for a couple years, it'll be all right. THIS is the window we need maximized. We just lost out on the playoffs for not signing Cruz this past year, and maybe on much more. I'd definitely try to keep both Kivlehan and DJ now, though - at least one should be needed to offset Cruz's aging shortly. Hunter would be okay as a stopgap til one of the righties minors guys gets here.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattIndeed Tacoma...I want Masterson in here because he's a good fit for the team and because I want his draft pick...2 weeks 3 days ago
Tacoma RainI'm with Matt. Masterson is a much better bet, In fact, if our pitching coaches can do for Masterson as they did for Young, Mariners will get a draft choice back when Masterson leaves.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattSo...right now, Oakland's line-up is somethjing like CF) Crisp 3B) Lawrie RF) Reddick DH) Butler C) Norris-Jaso LF) Moss 1B) Davis-Vogt 2B) Sogard SS) Punto...right?2 weeks 3 days ago
rick82Steamer has Saunders almost twice as valuable as Jennings next season btw (2.4 vs. 1.3).2 weeks 3 days ago
rick82Not sure I understand the reasoning behind picking up a half a win (according to Steamer) by signing Santana to a long term contract and moving Elias to AAA, but, hey, not going to complain if the M's want to spend more money. I like Santana. He's aging well and is only 31. Jennings....well, if I have to lose Saunders, Jennings is a nice return. That's a fast outfield, but it's fast if Saunders is out there as well.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR NOT want Ervin Santana...we have no need of spending big on SP...we should sign a bargain star like Masterson long before we do something foolish like waste 4 years of big money on a streaky goof-off like Santana. BLECH. I think we shouldn't need to trade Taylor now to get an outfielder. I would just get a cheap one-year FA like Hunter to platoon with Saunders/Ackley and trade a RP and some other surplus for an extra AAAA SP that can shuttle around and another 1B bat.2 weeks 3 days ago
ThirteenRest of the offseason plan is now clear to me. Cruz is the full-time DH. Sign Ervin Santana, who effectively no longer has draft compensation attached, bumping Elias to AAA. Trade Saunders + Taylor for the best RF/CF you can get (Desmond Jennings...?). Add a backup C, a 4th OF, and a 1B to platoon with LoMo (Gaby Sanchez...?). Willie Ballgame is backup SS until Marte is ready at midseason. Assorted minor league deals, especially for SP. Done.2 weeks 3 days ago
MtGrizzlyI love the speculation that the Seager contract basically priced the A's out of Donaldson.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattOK Doc - lessee your write up of this. :)2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR Mattwe need to add another bat...but it may not need to be a marquee bat. And yes...we need to re-secure Chris Young and add one more depth SP on top of Young. I like Justin Masterson as well so that's another option.2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattThe corpse of Torii Hunter actually makes some sense now...with Cruz added to play either RF or DH depending on the line-up, you could run Hunter as the DH against lefties and Cruz as the DH against righties with Saunders in RF.2 weeks 3 days ago
okdanYup, agreed. The years might make me uncomfortable, but the dude hit 40 bombs last year. If he puts us in the playoffs in years 1 and 2, it's worth it. Now go sign a SP!2 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattThis is actually great news, IMHO. Cruz is probably not going to still be effective i year for, but at 58 million, year 4 is free. You're getting two years at 22 mil or so, a third year at 14 mil, and a fourth year for free.2 weeks 3 days ago
okdanDeal confirmed (but not with details) by Jerry Crasnick2 weeks 3 days ago
okdanEnrique Rojas reporting, via a Dominican newspaper article, that the Mariners are about to sign Cruz for 4 years/$57M.2 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogNats may be still in the need for a 2B and a RP: Nats still have Souza and no real place for him: He's owned AAA. Let's get him.2 weeks 3 days ago
mojicianRay Rice won his arbitration hearing and is eligible for reinstatement. Of course you read it at SSI three months ago.2 weeks 4 days ago
moethedogI've wondered if Montero is part of a "going slow" philosophy, Bat. I just can't make sense out of that, however. There are real concerns about Montero's ability to hit RHP, although he mashes lefties. He may well be a nice platoon with Morrison, for example....But as a stand alone bat, I'm not seeing it. I like the guy and we should have used him last year, but I can't see him being our "Big" add.2 weeks 4 days ago
MtGrizzly"Hunter, 39, has told teams that he wants to sign a one-year contract and play for a franchise that has a chance to win a championship." So...I'm not sure he'll even consider Seattle if he is the big add.2 weeks 4 days ago
SilentpadnaIf we had the money to sign Lester, I'd consider giving up Walker in a trade............2 weeks 4 days ago
Bat571Would it be out of the realm of possibility that Saunders has healed up the issues of October? And that Jesus Montero is making a concerted effort in Peoria to get back his Mojo? And that the Ms are seriously considering standing pat? If you adjust the FanGraphs depth chart numbers for Montero as the primary DH instead of Romero, the Ms might still be the 2nd best projected team in the majors (assume Montero gets 2x the PAs and 2x the WAR and the Ms are back ahead of the RedSox). Not what I wanted out of the off-season, but better than giving up Walker or Paxton?2 weeks 4 days ago
Gordon GrossAbreu was my pick for sure. Tomas doesn't interest me the same way, but I'd prefer him to the corpse of Torii hunter.2 weeks 4 days ago
TaroI think Tomas has a shot of being the first Cuban bust in a while. The real loss was Abreu last offseason.2 weeks 4 days ago
moethedogSan Diego is still a pretty natural trading partner for the M's. They've been rumored to like Saunders. No problem. They also have a P in Andrew Cashner who struggles to stay healthy (but can pitch) and the same in a RHB, Carlos Quentin. Grandal is a catcher who would be a nice offset with Zunino, if Hicks isn't ready. With all the rumors of other guys, Matt....I'm still hping Craig falls to us! :) But, we have lots of young goodies to offer for Gattis. I hope we're doing it. BTW, Almonte OPS'ed 98 in San Diego last year: .265-.305-.378...about what he did for us the year prior.Good for him with the bounceback.2 weeks 4 days ago
DaddyOAgreed re: Hunter, Matt. He's only slightly better than the typical pickups the M's have made during the Zduriencik regime (apart from Cano). I'd rather have one truly good bat and go with an internal candidate rather than two Hunter-type bats. You can always seek a second bat at the trade deadline.2 weeks 4 days ago
SABR MattDoc - I created a separate post with my thanksgiving thoughts - I missed the discussion over the holiday as I only had my phone for internet access and Klat breaks my phone (causes the browser to crash if I enter any of the posts). I could read your thread, but not comment.2 weeks 4 days ago
SABR MattHunter is useless. Please no.2 weeks 4 days ago
Tacoma RainNo worries about that Moe. The Mariners will save the big bucks for Kendrys if they continue to stick to last year's script.2 weeks 4 days ago
moethedogM's are in on Torii Hunter. I don't know what to think about that. For the right amount he a nice addition...but that right amount isn't too rich, and I'm afraid we will want to go big-ish on him.2 weeks 4 days ago
diderotI&#039;ve always admired Beane, even accounting for a certain amount of poetic license written into Moneyball. But I have to admit: I did not understand the $10m to Johnson (a closer!) last year. I do not understand the $10m to Butler this year (and two following). I can&#039;t imagine how either Samardzja and/or Kazmir aren&#039;t the next to go. But I&#039;m prepared to be astounded. Or maybe he&#039;s lost a little of his magic?2 weeks 4 days ago
mojicianJosh Donaldson swelled large by Orc standards, so it was necessary to split him/it into a colony of prospects. Orcs prefer quantity over quality.2 weeks 4 days ago
mojicianOrcs, like other cnidaria, often spawn by fission, where a specimen will grow large and healthy enough and then divide itself into 2 to 4 parts. This seems strange to us but it is commonplace in lower life forms.2 weeks 4 days ago
SABR MattThe Oakland offense, right now, is in shambles. They are going to have to do something truly spectacular to have a competitive offense in 2015. Which means Beane is about to trade for, like, Goldschmidt or someone.2 weeks 5 days ago
benihanaBrand = Beane. And Oakland (San Fran plus San Jose) is the sixth largest market in the U.S. Trading your stars year after year? I for one would hate to be an A's fan.2 weeks 5 days ago
benihanaBrand is great. It's just that every other large market team like his is playing with a 380 buck budget to his 260. The a's just made themselves worse. This is great news for Ms fans.2 weeks 5 days ago
jemanjiExactly GLS. The A's and M's are diametrically opposed ends of the committee spectrum. Our suits do love to participate.2 weeks 5 days ago
jemanjiSTANDING O, Rick. Marquee GM, heh heh heh2 weeks 5 days ago
GLSThe interesting thing about how Billy Beane operates is that he appears to have complete control of all roster decisions, as opposed to certain other teams where any move involving any player of significance has to be approved by multiple committees.2 weeks 5 days ago
rick82Sometimes, you build a roto team so impressively, you want to slap some uniforms on it, and show it off to the world: Look what I did with $260 bucks. Beane does this every season.2 weeks 5 days ago
rick82It would be very strange to be a fan of a team whose marquee talent is the GM. Kind of like rooting for the Wizard of Oz.2 weeks 5 days ago
DaddyOHow Beane's moves will work out is unknown, but he sure takes advantage of his...advantages. He can't match payroll with many other clubs. He can't sell a superb facility to play in, he can't sell mega media opportunities for star players. But in Oakland he has created for himself a working environment where he can be nimble, quick, decisive, and revolutionary in player transactions. So he uses that to his advantage.2 weeks 5 days ago
merksLooks like the A's are in serious talks with the White Sox. Shark for A. Ramirez is the possibility. Beane's probably really good at Roto.2 weeks 5 days ago
moethedogWe should have jumped in on Gattis, with both feet and a huge splash, a while back. Arrrrrgggghhhh. Minus Kivlehan, Deej and Wilson...give them free run through our minors. Is 2 years of Shark worth 4 of Gattis from Atlanta's perspective? I think not, if they are going young. That's where prospects are our advantage.2 weeks 5 days ago
Tacoma RainBilly is trying to trade Shark to Atlanta... for either Upton or Gattis or both. The Orcs are going to be a very different animal in 20152 weeks 5 days ago
misterjonezAnd now he's interested in Upton/Gattis, according to MLBTR. Wow. Dude deserved to have a movie made about him starring Brad Pitt.2 weeks 5 days ago
Gordon GrossBeane does make his moves. Can't believe how hard the As play for his team knowing none of them will ever really be secure there. We keep seager, they trade donaldson. We draft enough good players to not need to make those trades though... I hope. :)2 weeks 5 days ago
moethedogThe Key isn't Barreto, it's Graveman. In 212 pro innings, he's given up 5 homers. FIVE. AND you get an 18 year old slugger AND a decent 3B.2 weeks 5 days ago
moethedogI love BB2 weeks 5 days ago
misterjonezWow. Billy Beane never rests. He gets a pair of interesting, if uninspiring arms, and a monstrous teenager in Barreto who hit .311/.384/.481 for a 141 WRC+ as an 18 year old in low A ball. He also gets Lawrie, whose performance has never quite matched his hype (and his health has never been a strength, either), so there's definitely upside there. Very interesting trade...Beane gives up one of the most valuable, club-controlled players in the entire game in Donaldson for a few rolls of the dice. That guy is amazing.2 weeks 6 days ago
merksHere are the details. Josh Donaldson to Blue Jays, A's get Brett Lawrie, pitchers Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin, SS Franklin Barreto2 weeks 6 days ago
merksA's just traded Donaldson to Toronto and get 3 back including Lawrie.2 weeks 6 days ago
Tacoma RainOK... I'm back from Black Friday. I made my hard choices, and I spent MY money. I know it was hard, but I spent MONEY. It's your turn Mather and Jack! Spend money. Make the hard choices and spend. You said you would - now DO IT! Earn your paycheck, and spend.2 weeks 6 days ago
misterjonezYour point about geography is well taken, Gordon, but I think the FO needs to be proactive in the PR department. They don't have to say they outbid AZ for him, but they should make it clear that he was one of many players they were actively pursuing. As it is the silence is deafening, which is fine when the primo FA's are still on the board, but that is no longer the case. Things are getting tighter in the quest for a MOTO bat, for sure. As for the Betancourt aftermath...that point seems to have a bit more traction with me, Ice.2 weeks 6 days ago
IcebreakerXMaybe a little bitter from Yuniesky too...2 weeks 6 days ago
Gordon GrossNot sure why people think he was willing to come here. The Ms may have been around the fringes because he wasted to go someplace warm, with a large Spanish speaking population for comfort. AZ provided both of those things. We're in southern Alaska, remember? Some deals you just can't make.2 weeks 6 days ago
misterjonezI'm going to say we definitely should have gotten Tomas at that contract. $11-12mil/year for a right-handed power hitter, entering his prime, with professional experience and aplomb, who could play positions of need for this team, is too much to pass up. It doesn't take too much for him to earn that contract, even if he's DHing.3 weeks 50 min ago
diderotTomas: but can he run, field and throw like Cespedes? The market determined he was worth the contract he got. Hard to believe that everyone else was wrong...and the M&#039;s would have been wiser to outbid that market.3 weeks 19 hours ago
Gordon Gross12 miles per year ain't bad. He only has to hit like, well, cespedes I guess to be worth that chunk of change. Most people like him better than cespedes. Tomas off the market shrinks the bats further. One more musical chair down.3 weeks 1 day ago
IcebreakerXTomas to D'Backs for 6/69 according to @JesseSanchezMLB3 weeks 1 day ago
PlawsableI don&#039;t know that Davis would be a big improvement over Morrison. Sure, if he hit 50 again he clearly would be. Morrisons career OBP is .011 higher and he hit .333/.368/.478/.846 vs LHP last year in 95PA while not showing a big split in his career. I don&#039;t expect him to do that well vs LHP next year but overall it is hard to say Davis would be better for the team and it&#039;s needs. OBP and VS LHP, the 2 big needs of the team, Morrison has mostly looked better.3 weeks 1 day ago
GLSAny thoughts out there about Chris Davis? Little blurb in MLBTR that the Marlins may be looking at him. I know right-handed power is the flavor of the month around here, but Davis is one year removed from a 50 HR season, which is something I'm pretty sure I'd like to see on my club irrespective of handedness.3 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossI like our guys too, GLS - but we can't play everybody. Miller and Taylor play the same position, and neither can move anywhere else in the infield since those positions are blocked off, and if Miller goes to the OF then he's displacing one of Ackley or Saunders - assuming they aren't displaced by a free agent or trade. Plus DJ and Kivlehan are coming in a year or so, further crowding certain positions, and Marte REALLY can't play anywhere if the infield is full... some guys will have to go. Just get the best player back in any trade, and make sure it's for more than a year if ya can. Also, make sure to trade ONLY the lesser players from the bunch. ;-) Be psychic Jack!3 weeks 2 days ago
moethedogMy bad. It was Divish I read3 weeks 2 days ago
Bat571I said Grichuk, but meant Piscotty - Grichuk hasn't played 1B. Piscotty was a 3B switched to the OF. His speed and arm makes him right for RF, but he'd make a nice big target at 1B, too.3 weeks 2 days ago
GLSI guess this makes me lame, but I can't get excited about trading any of our guys. Miller, Ackley, Taylor, Saunders - I like 'em all. I'd be a terrible GM.3 weeks 2 days ago
Bat571I'm still hoping for Kemp + Gattis, but I also agree that a young backup 1B/OF type would be insurance against Morrison getting injured. Souza or Terdoslavich fit that bill, as does Randall Grichuk. Maybe Morban or Choi will surprise us, or Jesus can reconstruct (resurrect?) his career. But that's an area that still gives pause, especially if the Ms trade Ackley to get the RH power.3 weeks 2 days ago
Bat571Divish's blog is interesting, but his saying the Dodgers are primarily looking for starters for Kemp may be a little off. They'd certainly take 'Kuma, but their pitching prospects, especially Zach Lee, Chris Reed, and Julio Urias, are as good as anyone's. They could be mildly interested in a depth piece like Erasmo (especially if he continues to pitch well in winter ball), but they're more interested in their infield issues, the depleted Farm, their bullpen, and getting a Catcher that can hit better than the .577 OPS Ellis put up last season. The last part they'll have to talk to the Yankees about, but Taylor, one of the M's NitroPenners, and some stock for their Farm should be of interest.3 weeks 2 days ago
DaddyOmoe, where are you reading a Geoff Baker blog? I thought he didn't do M's stuff anymore for the Times.3 weeks 2 days ago
DaddyOBold talk came from Kevin Mather and Jack Zduriencik right after the season ended. By now we're used to this schtick. The M's are looking for offense. Not one bat, two bats. Payroll's going up. We're serious this time. Really. Really? Then why have you put yourself in a loser of a musical chairs position, with only a couple o' chairs left and more than a couple of teams remain, all getting desperate just like you. The decisive teams, those skilled in offseason moves, those laser focused on getting what they needed, have all acted, have all locked in their chairs, are all laughing as you're left out again. They're used to it too.3 weeks 2 days ago
Bat571Souza should be available for a BP arm or two or a nice prospect - I think Ackley would be an overpay. And Souza would be gotten easier in a package - If Fister and Souza could come for Ackley/Taylor + Medina + Guaipe +Guerrero/Morban it would be pretty fair - Souza and Guerrero straight up would be worth trying also - the Nats are set in the OF now, but Werth is getting older, and a top OF prospect about 2 years away would pique their interest, I bet. Guerrero is 4 1/2 years younger than Souza, so it makes for a nice "stash" trade of an older, blocked prospect for one who isn't yet Rule 5 eligible.3 weeks 2 days ago
moethedogSouza would be fine and dandy for me. Ackley gets him, I bet. Who do you value more?3 weeks 2 days ago
moethedogBaker's blog today is a good one. Basically he says that Walker isn't going and Iwakuma won't go for Cespedes (and reading between the lines,, he won't go for anybody with a bat). OK...that leaves Ackley/Saunders/Miller/Taylor as MLB trade pieces...and a RP or two. Rodney? No mention....but I would believe we might swap him out for a one year bat. But that only really works with Boston. The one year bats they have are Cespedes, Napoli and Victorino. Ergo, Doc's thread above about Napoli.3 weeks 2 days ago
PlawsableOk so we can play the part of the Dodgers and Atlanta can be the Red Sox but I want Freeman too. 2 Uptons and a Freeman workable for you?3 weeks 2 days ago
PlawsableThe way I see it they need a guy you can bank on .350+ OBP. Then add another .320+ OBP. A guy like Souza, Gattis or Betts where you think he has a chance to be a .350+ guy down the road does look even better as the second add.3 weeks 2 days ago
Gordon GrossYup. Gattis is a second addition, not a headliner - more a Logan Morrison than a Kyle Seager. I still want him... just not ONLY him.3 weeks 2 days ago
SABR Mattagreed on not dealing Kuma unless blown away...and agreed that the Mariners don't need to purge their prospects to get better...but Souza isn't enough by himself...we need at least one money in the bank slugger and THEN supporting pieces (Souza, Gattis...something like that). We need someone that teams FEAR to hit behind Cano and make the line-up more intimidating.3 weeks 2 days ago
mojicianPreach it Taro. That's some good stuff. Kuma is washed up in the same way that Jared Weaver is washed up: Not really.3 weeks 2 days ago
TaroIwakuma's healthy season in 2013 was worth 7 WAR according to baseball-ref as he outperformed his peripherals with RA. Unlikely hes that good again, but he should be significantly better than Cespedes, and has far more long term value to our franchise. I flat would not deal him unless someone overwhelms us.3 weeks 2 days ago
TaroDealing Iwakuma would be a mistake. Elite Japanese pitchers have a tendency to age REALLY well and usually give their home teams a discount (loyalty). Look at Hiroki Kuroda and Koji Uehara. Its a pattern in the NPB as well. The pitchers that don't get fatally injured last forever. Ms should buy low and extend him for 3 years.3 weeks 2 days ago
TaroMs seem to be only a couple pieces away. I'd focus on Souza from the Nats and skip on the overpriced vets.3 weeks 2 days ago
Gordon Gross$-per-WAR is going up with the new TV contracts, remember. With inflation combined with WAR cost adjustments, contracts like Cano's won't be nearly as onerous they "feel" like they should be from today's vantage point. Seager's could be an absolute bargain if he keeps playing like this. The guys I wanna pay are in their 20s still - Cano was the exception. Right now we're paying Felix and Kyle for their most productive years (in theory) and when both guys are at the ends of their contracts, the New Guys (Walker, Paxton, DJ, Alex Jackson, etc) will be getting close to getting paid. The timing is fine for me.3 weeks 2 days ago
Gordon GrossEconomics are getting weird in baseball, moe. Austin Jackson + Fernando Rodney pays for Justin Upton all by itself. Where you don't really want to be is in the middle, paying 10 or 12 million a season to a replacement-level dude. If you can pay your 4-5 WAR vets their appropriate salary, then rely on club-controlled guys for your 2-WAR contributions you'll be way better off in this market. The Red Sox are trying to go that way. Stars and scrubs is more versatile and valuable than ever - assuming you have the right stars and a healthy farm system year after year.3 weeks 2 days ago
moethedogIf we wanted is the key phrase, G. That's two $16-$20M salaries to add (plus Seager's). That's pretty optimistic for the M's. But if you could extend J for the 2 extra years it would be worth thinking about, at least.3 weeks 2 days ago
Gordon GrossJustin likes playing with his brother. If you're in it for the long haul on Justin and you want to try to extend/ re-sign him, then adding his brother to the team (while the Braves pay for at least 2/3 of BJ's ridiculous salary) isn't a bad way to go about it. Might just be the cost of doing business. We can have a hole in CF if the rest of the roster is stocked. MOST teams have a lineup hole at a glove position (or two) while we have a C who can drop 20 bombs in his sleep and a pair of SS that should net us at least one plus bat for the position. We could do it if we wanted.3 weeks 2 days ago
moethedogGot it Matt, some how missed that. Sorry. Paying three years of BJ to get 1 year of his brother is pretty steep, all the same. You would look at the trade guys as exchange for Gattis.3 weeks 2 days ago
benihanaJon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi - #Mariners have had trade talks on multiple RH outfielders, including Matt Kemp, Yoenis Cespedes, and Justin Upton. They want to land one. - #RedSox have been interested in Hisashi Iwakuma before; unclear if #Mariners would part with him in a Yoenis Cespedes trade. - If Mariners land one of the three, middle of their lineup becomes Cano-3, Kemp/Upton/Cespedes-4, Seager-5. This is what they need.3 weeks 2 days ago
SABR MattNotice I said Los Dos Upton...not jsut Gattis...Gattis and Justin Upton (and a very expensive paperweight)3 weeks 2 days ago
rick82M's will not trade Kuma or Walker. I know everyone says you never can have too much pitching, but in the M's case, I think they truly believe it. Walker is ML ready now, unlike the days Upton was a Diamondback. Kuma could go if a Fister swapped his place somehow. But he's cheap insurance right now. Anyway...bottom line is Walker is Not Going Anywhere.3 weeks 2 days ago
moethedogSteep price for Gattis, Matt. I'm assuming that BJ Upton is just expensive and terrible. OK, a bounceback is possible but I think much of baseball has abandoned that thought. Elias/Taylor AND $16M (or $6M with the 2/3) per for Gattis is steep. It would take a lot of reimbursement, as you said. Ah, what the heck...That one I would pass on.3 weeks 2 days ago
SABR Mattif we have to take BJ Upton to get Evan Gattis, e.g., they can eat 2/3 of his contract and they don't get Walker. If that's a way to avoid giving up Walker...I'm willing to give them Elias and Taylor for Los Dos Upton and Gattis and some reimbursement...though I agree that is less than ideal.3 weeks 2 days ago
Bat571With Atlanta, I'm just afraid the posturing on Walker for Upton is leading to a "well, if you take B.J., too, we can talk!" sort of negotiation. If they trade BOTH Gattis and Justin Upton without including B.J. with one or the other, they have little leverage. But the Ms (finally) really don't have an albatross contract to swap back, so unless Liberty Media wants to pay most of B.J.'s remaining contract (at LEAST $30M+), that would make me pass and look at Boston. But reluctantly, because their media will not stand for a fair trade or underpay - the Sox MUST win any trade.3 weeks 2 days ago
Bat571I can't see the Dodgers keeping Kemp at this point. Crawford has a history with Friedman, and had a decent 2nd half. They aren't trading Puig, and they want to promote Pederson. I'm in accord with Heyman (this once) that if the Dodgers can get more by trading Kemp than by effectively DFAing Ethier, that's what they will do. Apparently nobody wants Ethier, so the die is being cast. They will want a RH hitter (not necessarily a power hitter) for balance, but with Puig, Uribe, Van Slyke, and Turner, they're not that bad off - certainly not like the Braves being RH. And Taylor is a pretty good RH hitter in any case, just without much power.3 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571I'd swap Upton and Craig vis a vis your list, assuming in his case that trade value is ~reasonable (i.e., no Walker or Paxton or Zunino or Miller for me). I'm looking at pairs as well -- 1) Kemp and Gattis; 2) Upton and Gattis; 3) Rios and Craig; 4) Rios and Napoli -- that has one big salary and one moderate one. I think the Ms need to look at pitching as well, so unless we can do that one-stop trade and have payroll left for Fister, I don't think that all holes get filled otherwise. And Boston will insist on 'Kuma for Craig or Napoli, so I see little hope there, personally, unless we also get Fister in trade or sign Chris Young soon.3 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571Can I convince you, Moe, that Terdoslavich is Van Slyke two years ago? Getting old, blocked, but great MiLB numbers, and can play all of the corners adequately, with 3B the weakest (but that's where the Ms are strongest). I'd almost want him more than VS or Souza, since he could come in a package, which lowers his cost. And I certainly like him better than Cespedes, because he's shown the willingness to adapt, which I believe is a "hidden" talent that is undervalued.3 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogBTW: Of the players we've written about, #1 on my Get Parade is a subsidized Kemp. But unless the Dodgers grab a RH bat somewhere I think they end up keeping him. #2 would be Gattis (who gives you 4 cheap years). #3 would be Craig #4 Upton (1 yr) #5 = Napoli (1 yr) #6 is Cespedes (who will absolutely be traded) (I prefer not to get a one year guy and have to do it all over again) #7 is Victorino. Have I missed somebody we've discussed? Oh...Trumbo is somewhere at 6-8 as he's 2 years. Ethier/Van Slyke is doable but a 2-fer as is any Nationals trade.3 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogI've tried to edit those swaps out because they are more complicated. We have 2 RH bats just about here in Kivlehan and Deej and a LoMO who still is open to question. Getting more than a rental bat so we don't have to do it all again would be great. FA's? Cruz and Tomas? Cruz will be expensive and demand years 37 and 38 and Tomas is going to end up getting Kemp like dollars (with subsidy). I don't mind losing Ackley or 'Kuma (if he won't resign). I do mind losing Miller/Taylor/Kivlehan/Deej. Remember that Boston had already added Rusney Castillo. They have some players to shed. 'Kuma gets you your bat of choice (Cespedes/Craig/Napoli (perhaps)..if you hurry. If you could work out an Ackley+ lots deal for Zimmerman you could move 'Kuma. Boston has mashed up everything.3 weeks 3 days ago
GLSI would love to get Souza.3 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogZimmerman too, Bat. I wondered exactly the same type of thing. Zimmerman is a one year guy, however (2 for Fister). But in tandem with Souza (who can play CF) is there some deal possible there. It would begin with Ackley, I think, and then cost something in prospects. Actually 'Kuma and Ackley (they need a 2B) might get you close to Zimmerman and Souza. Kind of a trade of similar pieces....but you add a RH bat who can play CF. We would have to value Souza more than Ackley, however. if you had already added a Kemp then that might work. But, I still figure we add one bat (perhaps trading out Ackley as a 2B), a Chris young type arm and then hold the fort until a hot young bat moves out of Tacoma.3 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571Do the deal with Atlanta, then deal for Fister, then see who comes calling for Iwakuma and what they're offering. Suddenly the Ms are in the catbird seat!3 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571Fister would probably require Taylor + Guerrero + ??? - about the same as Kemp - but getting him back would be justice served.3 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571Getting Fister back would make me feel better about trading 'Kuma, in any case.3 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571Interesting. Nationals are rumored to be shopping Doug Fister, apparently to get in on Max Scherzer. Wonder what the Nationals would want for Fister and Souza - too much probably - but their only real needs are maybe an IF and some bullpen arms, and then prospects for their Farm. Maybe the Ms could reverse the Fister to Detroit trade and send some middling prospects to the Nats for Fister? Marte, Morban, Pike, and Pagan for Fister and Souza? Probably not enough, but fun to think about!3 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogVictorino's career Home/Away numbers are .283-.351-.434/.271-.331-.428. That's .785 vs. .759. He's not made a career as a home bat. He's had 5 more homers in 50 more PA's on the road over his career. He's hit 15 less doubles on the road but 12 more triples. Basically he has no Home/Away split. I suppose it is possible that he has faced more lefties on the road than at home over his career, but it seems unlikely to be too much of a difference. In 1054 starts he's hit 107 home runs. Were he to start 130 times for Seattle I suppose he might get Safeco'ed into 10 homers rather than 13.3 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571In the offer to the Braves earlier, I'd also ask for an arm, preferably Williams Perez, coming back along with Upton, Gattis, and Terdoslavich. Then it looks to me that it balances quite nicely and meets needs on both sides.3 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571If Napoli costs as much as Upton in prospects and salary commitment combined, and Craig has twice that owed, which will take even better prospects to buy down, I just don't see the Ms going for them first while Gattis remains out there. Gattis and Napoli appear interchangeable for the M's needs, but Gattis is pre-arb! And between Upton and Kemp there's also a toss-up, with one requiring a one-year commitment, the other more in the best case, and for 4 years. Dealing with Atlanta, even somewhat of an overpay (pace Gordon) seems both smarter and more in the M's pattern.3 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571Given the choices out there, and the Braves' needs, I'd still be willing to solve their 3B problem with D.J. for Upton, with more on each side to balance (Erasmo in particular), but I can't see Upton getting Walker. D.J. is the max I could see (or take), and there'd have to be other pieces coming back. Ackley + D.J. + Morban/Choi + Erasmo + Marte for Upton, Gattis, and Terdoslavich still seems about right to me - and it's one-stop shopping! Let the Sawx solve their pitching problems elsewhere (probably by trading Bogaerts for Hamels). But that would be only one Large contract for only one year, which feels like it might be in the M's wheelhouse.3 weeks 3 days ago
Bat571If the Ms can't get Gattis for Ackley, then as the fallback Medina or Furbush + prospect for Napoli and some of the $16M he's owed - how much determines which prospect (the BoSox need relievers as well as starters). Still think the Ms can get Kemp for Taylor + Guerrero + ??? not too damaging (Wilhelmsen/Medina/Furbush + Marlette?) and still get ~1/3 of his remaining money. Craig would be a third option, but could they buy low, or would Boston try to hold out? Craig's got $33M remaining - quite a gamble unless the BoSox pick up some of it - again, at what price? Would relievers do it, or do they demand a starter?3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattVictorino will not hit .240 if a Mariner. His "power" disappears at the Safe, as do all of his ground ball hits. Folks...players like Victorino and Craig ar ebad fits for the Mariners because, to generate XBH in Safeco, you can't have "middling" power...especially if you're a righty...Victorino will not hit lefties well as a Mariner...he'll hit into a blizzard of routine fly outs to left. He hits lefties well in Philly and Boston...two of the best parks to hit in as a right handed batter.3 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogI would do that Matt. Napoli would be a great #4 hitter, if he becomes available. No discussion of that so far. But on Victorino: He hits lefties better than anybody we have, he hits RHP as well as Ackley and he's a good glove CF/COF. That would add about $20 to payroll, before Seager's new contract. Giving up Iwakuma makes it possible. I'm trading Ackley afterwards, btw.3 weeks 3 days ago
mojicianBoston is a weird team. They throw out good ball players like last year's trash, and then new good ballplayers agree to sign with them. Lester is probably meeting with them right now.3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattI imagine Boston wants pitching if they trade guys. Iwakuma and a prospect for Napoli and Cespedes! :D3 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossNapoli would a fine 1-year placeholder (and producer, unlike our other placeholders). Depends who's going out to get him as to how I feel about adding him, but in theory I'm totally on board with that.3 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossI don't think it'll take that much for Upton, moj. Maybe if there's a bidding war. There's NO way it should take Walker to get a year of Upton. It is technically a year of Upton plus the QO pick in the draft (because we would almost certainly give him the QO and he would almost certainly decline) but Walker's worth more than that. DJ probably is as well, honestly. I don't think anybody's top-2 prospect is going out to get Upton (and DJ is our #2-ish prospect at the moment, with Walker and Paxton graduated). Upton is likely more in the Elias + Taylor conversation. if you felt like bidding up you could send out Saunders too.3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattThat said...Napoli is a heck of an idea...don't know why I didn't think of that3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattVictorino is a far worse baseball player than Michael Saunders even half injured. Victorino doesn't help us one iota.3 weeks 3 days ago
mojicianNapoli!!! That's an awesome idea.3 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogI think the Seager deal probably gretly reduces the chance that we do a LT Tomas deal (I like him but never felt he was our guy) and even somewhat reduces the odds that we do a Kemp deal (If LA is really trading him). Atlanta will have to come off of their huge Upton demand if he is going to be ours.Cruz? We may fall back to that position, I suppose. Gimme Craig and we'll negotiate from there. As argued, Victorino helps he this year...and I would like Gattis quite a bit. Cespedes? Might be a straight-up swap for "Kuma there. I'm not sure I'm in on that.3 weeks 3 days ago
ThirteenTrades too gutsy to happen, 2014 edition: Hisashi Iwakuma and Fernando Rodney for Yoenis Cespedes and Mike Napoli.3 weeks 3 days ago
mojicianYessirree. The youthful years of Walker is a bit much for one year of Upton. How about Hultzen and Peterson? Braves get two top ten type prospects to reboot their rebuild, we get the bat of doom, plus a qualifying offer, and an inside track on signing the guy next year. I'm not attached to Hultzen and D.J. yet, and I'm more excited about Choi and Kiv anyway. Or didn't Doc already say all that?3 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossGood call Matt - morning math fail on my end! I'm actually impressed that they locked him in for that long. The Ms really believe in him, and didn't go half-way trying to get one year after arb or something. 3rd base auditions are closed. DJ, Patrick and the rest had better hit enough for a different corner if they plan to stay in teal.3 weeks 3 days ago
MtGrizzlyThe Red Sox may have to move both Cespedes and Napoli. Two RH bats with power, one LF and one 1B/DH. Both free agents after 2015. Hmmmmm..3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR Matt5/55 from last year would have been the same as 4/52 from this year...4/52 from this year would break down 6/10/14/22 - which is MORE expensive than what we paid. We didn't lose any money at all i signing Seager now instead of lat year.3 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossLast offseason, Seager's comps were Kipnis and Carpenter in terms of extensions (in the 5/55 range). Not getting it done last year cost us about 20 million to get it up to 7/100. Better late than never - as long as the Ms don't pinch pennies and Kyle Seager doesn't steal all our cookies a la Freddie Garcia's arb victory back in the day. The Ms would NEVER... *sigh* Welcome to being a life-long mariner, Kyle! You da man. Stay that way for 7 more years, wouldja?3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR Mattwithout giving up Walker3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattGet me Tomas and Upton if we can do it.3 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaHanley in at 4/88 with 5th year vest $22. 5/110. For me I'd rather Tomas at 7/100 - but that's not a bad deal for Boston.3 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaHanley and Panda to Bo-Sox. They have some large log-jams now. I'd do Cespedes for Iwakuma. I'm very leery of Iwakuma - I think he's done. No margin for decline, certainly not outside of Safeco. Moving him now is selling high.3 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogIf Upton costs us Ackley, I'm fine. Not if he costs us Walker.3 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogLookee what we got done! The Mariners and third baseman Kyle Seager are on the verge of completing a seven-year, $100MM extension, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. The contract contains an option for an eighth season which could be worth as much as $20MM, depending on performance escalators, Passan adds. Seager’s deal is pending a physical. He is represented by Jet Sports Management’s Andrew Lowenthal. YES!3 weeks 3 days ago
mojicianAlso, Seager for President. Clutchness and grit in 2028!3 weeks 3 days ago
mojicianUpton Matt. Say it with me. UP-TON. And not Kate or BJ.3 weeks 3 days ago
mojicianSheesh. Went into the woods for a week and the Orcs sign Country Breakfast, Hanley is the new Bosox flavor of the month, the Braves hold a yard sale, and the Fleet finally arrives at Mariner Brainstorm. It's a lot to take in.3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR Mattfind me Yasmany Tomas or Matt Kemp and perhaps Evan Gattis...anything else is worthless to me. WORTH...LESS.3 weeks 3 days ago
benihanaWhooohoo! Off-season priority #1 is checked off - that's a huge extension for Seager, and a reported vesting 8th year? Awesome. Locked him up through his prime. Now go finish up with priority #2 (OF - RHB - Yasmany please) and I'm a happy camper.3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattVictorino would be awful in Seattle. I'd be very surprised if he hit .240 here.3 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogI'm laughing Matt! The problem out there is that only Kemp is an "elite" type hitter still remaining (well, Craig, too...but here we differ). Every other RHB has some question mark. Upton is a one year guy and costs us (evidently) Walker. No thank you. Gattis has promise but it's not quite sure he's actually available. Van Slyke you don't like. Like you, what I'm trying to do is make us better. Were Frank Robinson available I would be all over him. But based on what is out there (and the M's conservative approach), what can we get that helps? Victorino helps. Craig helps. Cespedes probably does. That's it. Get me Kemp and Gattis and don't give up the bank and I'm a happy camper. But sometimes you have to get what you can get. We have young MLB-boomer-ish type bats on the way. A Victorino helps us today but doesn't block guys in a year or two. I'm good with that.3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattSeager reportedly close to 7 year, $100 million extension3 weeks 3 days ago
rick82Hey, Jonsie, just wanted to say I enjoyed your post about Upton. You were really making the case there.3 weeks 3 days ago
rick82Love it, Daddy O. "Would you believe that right this minute, right this very minute, two of the most feared right handed sluggers are ready to sign with us, Chief? Right this minute!" "I find that a little difficult to believe, Max." "Would you believe one of the top sluggers from 2012 and a Cuban batboy?"3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR Mattdang moe...what is your bizarre obsession with mediocre hitters coming off bad years? If Victorino and Craig is the best we can do...this has been a horrendous offseason.3 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogEvery RHB that comes off the board makes the next guy more expensive. I will take heart that we were close to V. Martinez. Now get a deal done, Z. If Panda signs with Boston I'm going hard for Victorino and Craig. Victorino still creams LHP and can still patrol CF if called upon. He's a one year rental, however. We've been talking about two-'fer deals with Atlanta and LA: Those deals may be too rich (Atl. demanding Walker) or unlikely (LA keeping Kemp). Ethier and Van Slyke is doable, too, as discussed. Victorino is actually some kind of a hitter vL. .303-.372-.503 over his career. And except for last year when he had 43 PA's vL (still hitting .325) he's been at those numbers or above for each of the past 5 seasons. He's not terrible against RHP either. And he's won 4 GG's. He's decently expensive...but he's pretty good. Cespedes can be had in Boston, too. There's some trading Karma available there.3 weeks 3 days ago
misterjonezI'm guessing Hanley really wants to return to Boston, and that any deal that's even close will get rejected since he's got a reasonable one on the table from his original team. But yeah, we had better have offered more than 5/90 or I'm disinclined to give credence to the big talk of adding bats this offseason. I assume (perhaps naively) that we did, in fact, beat the rumored 5/90, for whatever that's worth.3 weeks 3 days ago
DaddyOI don't feel like writing it this evening, but I can imagine a nice comedic routine about the M's offseason acquisitions with Kevin Mathers playing The Chief and Jack Zduriencik playing Maxewll Smart as they do the old "Would You Believe..." schtick. Jack starts the routine with names like Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and ends up with two pickles and an Elmer Fudd cap.3 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossWish we'd see some movement on the Upton and/or Gattis front. You'd think we were trying to get our offseason moves approved by a committee or something.3 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon GrossBuster Olney ranked Seager #4 amongst all major league third basemen. We really should have extended him last year like I wanted. ;) Better get that done this offseason before Arb.3 weeks 3 days ago
Gordon Gross5/90 for Hanley? Jeez, I would have been thrilled with that. Our 2B/3B being filled with good players already may have dissuaded him - although we would have let him play SS for a few years first. So we're down to Kemp and a secondary add now? Let's not let all the musical chairs get filled, shall we?3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattI'd have some interest in getting John Jaso back in Seattle to BC, FWIW3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR MattSupposedly, Seattle is still interested in Tomas...hanging around the periphery on that front.3 weeks 3 days ago
SABR Mattwow...I thought Hanley would be much more expensive than that...and now I'm annoyed that we didn't beat that offer. We *MUST* get Kemp. The small potato stuff (Craig, Van Slyke...vomit) is not going to cut it.3 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogSaw that. Two things may result: Craig may be very available (especially if they get Panda, too) and you may be able to move and get Ethier/Van Slyke (LA may be tempted to keep Kemp until they fill a RH bat need).3 weeks 3 days ago
merksLooks like Hanley is close to signing with the BoSox. Five years, $90 million is the rumored price.3 weeks 3 days ago
moethedogAgree on that, Matt. My thought was that Freiman/Davis/Butler rotate through 1B/DH....Moss is int he OF. Vogt seems odd man out to me.3 weeks 4 days ago
SABR Mattand FWIW, the As have way too many guys to play first base for Davis to see significant time. Freiman, Moss, Vogt, Davis, Jaso, Butler...A couple of those3 guys can SORT OF play the outfield (Vogt comes to mind) and Jaso can be the back-up catcher maybe. But...Butler has the DH spot completely locked down and will probably only occasionally get benched against the toughest right-handed bullpen match-ups and when he needs a day off. So that leaves about 15% of the DH at bats and the first base at bats to go to Moss, Freiman, Davis and occasionally Jaso...with Vogt probably relegated mostly to the outfield.3 weeks 4 days ago
SABR Mattall that was NL...he'll die in the AL...too many holes in his swing.3 weeks 4 days ago
moethedogI've always thought Ike Davis was better than a decent guy to have. Hits lefties like a rusty gate, but his career #'s vs. RHP are .254-.357-.456 (.813). LoMo's are .247-.336-.436 (.768). Even in a "down" year, Davis will was at .765 OPS last year, vR. LoMo was at .695! (His year was carried by his 95 vL PA's: .333-.368-.478). Basically they got him for free, too. Watch them platoon him with Nate Freiman.3 weeks 4 days ago
SABR Mattmeh...I don't think he'll do much.3 weeks 4 days ago
merksA's acquire Ike Davis for international slot and cash.3 weeks 4 days ago
Bat571I think Condor is working back into the good graces, starting with the agent change. He will be expensive for a 4th OF, but if he is the LF (e.g., if Ackley goes for Gattis), I think the Ms will keep him around because of the versatility. With Gattis (~~) able to play LF, Condor could move to CF if needed - not optimum, maybe, but more than adequate until Jones or Kivlehan could be summoned. I agree that the Ms should (and will) put Kivlehan in the OF part-time starting in ST. He'll put in the work and will be pretty good by the AS break, and will get better. All you could ask for.3 weeks 4 days ago
moethedogOne Cardinals' site giggles over the acquisition of Ty Kelly. Sigh: BTW, unless you guys figure than James Jones is on the opening day roster or that Bloomie gets the role, we still need a 4th OF who Mac will be willing to use in CF. That was certainly not true with Ackley or Saunders, and one of those guys will be gone. Kemp would do, not so Upton. Ethier has had nearly 120 CF starts over the last two years, BTW. Brad Miller, given the opportunity, would could handle CF, too. Kivlehan will get some early Tacoma CF time...but we need one for Seattle. Perhaps we keep Saunders and he goes there. Not Jones, please. I've soured....3 weeks 4 days ago
Bat571And, as I noted in another shout, a deal for Kemp will probably also cost at least 1 bullpen arm; which could mean another chunk off the final amount if it's Wilhelmsen, and a trim if it's Furbush. I'm making the assumption that Erasmo is gone, either to Atlanta in trade or, being out of options, is traded for a propect; that Ackley makes the most sense for the Braves in trade for Gattis; and that Taylor would be an MLB piece in a trade for Kemp. I assume any remaining pieces will be prospects (Guerrero, Morban, Choi), even if Terdoslavich would come with Gattis.3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571Just using the TNT tool -- -- and adding Gattis ($0.5M - using another FA as proxy), Kemp ($16M - using another FA as proxy), Young ($7M), and HanRam ($22M), and then manually subtracting Ackley, Taylor, and Erasmo ($3.8M total) gives ~$137M. Take HanRam's $22M out and that gives ~$115M, which is $8M more than the $107M. The TNT tool uses the $5M figure for Seager and the $7M figure for Iwakuma. Given the offers for Martin and VMart, I think there's more than $8M in headroom, in any case.3 weeks 5 days ago
SABR Mattnot sure where you get 8 mil, Bat...Gattis is cheap but Kemp at 16 mil, Young at 5-6 mil, Iwakuma at 7 mil, Seager at 5 mil...did you factor those in? I get roughly 14 mil up from 107 if we add just Kemp/Gattis.3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571And after Mather promised substantial budget increases, $8M wouldn't be substantial in my mind.3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571Well, If The Ms got Kemp and Gattis and re-signed Young, it'd be a dandy off-season, for sure. But it's Christmastime and I've always got to hope Santa's bringing me that new Volvo XC-90 with the 450HP hybrid drive train that gets 34mpg, even while I'm still driving my 2003 Honda Pilot!3 weeks 5 days ago
moethedogToo many moving parts, Bat. Hope for one big guy....or Gattis plus3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571If Wilhelmsen went in trade for Kemp, that takes another $2.1M off, Furbush $1.0M, Medina $0.5M. In any case, I really believe it's doable. And if Chris Young would sign to smooth innings, I continue to think rotating Elias, Walker, and Paxton to Tacoma for 10+ day stints of 4-5 inning starts to keep their totals down would be workable. Then Young could skip starts in places like Texas as well. BOAPW! (apologies to Prof. Pangloss and Voltaire).3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571$30M increase, not $20M - typo.3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571I put the numbers in the TNT payroll tool (since it doesn't do trades, I used a Chone Figgins FA signing @ $16M as a proxy for Kemp - I know, SICK!). With HanRam @ $22M, Kemp @ $16M, and Chris Young @ $7M, it totals to $141.1M. Subtract Ackley, Taylor, and Erasmo, and it looks like ~$137M - a $20M increase over the $107M end number last year that Mather implied was the starting point for increases.3 weeks 5 days ago
SABR Mattif we could get the Dodgers to front-load their us like 15 mil in 2015, 12 mil in 2016 and 8 mil in 2017 and then off the hook thereafter...we could ease the transition, from a payroll perspective...soften the blow to the finances on the front side.3 weeks 5 days ago
moethedogLA will have a RH bat in the pipeline, perhaps Hanley, if they are really trading Kemp. Matt is right. We get only one big ticket guy. That's it.3 weeks 5 days ago
SABR MattI hope you're right Bat...because a rational analysis of the team at this point says it's stupid not to spend big and win now...Cano and Felix in their primes for only so maturing and just got valuable play-off race experience, attendance tentatively rising...if you were ever going to fight hard...this would be the time.3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571Gattis is still pre-arb, so his price is the trade cost (Ackley?), but little initially to the payroll. If Kemp came at a payroll cost of $16M (~2/3-1/3 split), and HanRam comes in at the MLBTR prediction of $22M (AAV), that's a $38M add. From where they're at now, that looks like <$140M - but they would still have another signing (Chris Young) and extensions to Seager and Iwakuma to add to that, if it worked out like I'd like.3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571It would depend on how much subsidy the Ms could get with Kemp, but the amount they bid on VMart and Martin makes me believe they may be willing to go near $140M at least -- they seem to understand the amount spent on Cano and Felix will be wasted unless they go for it starting now. And that would be enough.3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571And a bench of Saunders (OF); Terdoslavich (1B/3B/COF); Bloomquist (IF/OF); and Sucre (C) - with Bloomquist and Sucre ceding to Kivlehan and Hicks by the AS Break.3 weeks 5 days ago
SABR MattGetting both Ramirez and Kemp is not possible...unless the Mariners suddenly decide they want to spend 150 million on payroll.3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571Meanwhile, we can dream of a Jackson-HanRam-Cano-Kemp-Seager-Gattis-Morrison-Zunino-Miller lineup laying waste to the AL.3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571Yes, Moe - like they've realized they will have problems if they move Kemp from RF that might outweigh the loss of the RH bat. Would they turn around and trade for a cheaper, younger guy? Sign Rios? Dunno - but somebody ought to keep whispering "2016 - Guerrero-Pederson-Puig" in the ears down there! And "Taylor and Gordon stealing 40 bases apiece and turning DPs nightly" as well!3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571And I still think Terdoslavich is just where Scott Van Slyke was a year or so ago - getting old for a prospect, blocked at his best position, able to play other positions adequately, good MiLB numbers that translate to MLB effectiveness, and ready to put the hurt on pitchers if he can get a chance. The injuries to Kemp, Ethier, and Crawford gave SVS his chance. I'd really like to see Terdoslavich get a chance in Seattle while Kivlehan and DJ get their ABs in Tacoma. And Morrison has not been durable - do we really want to try Montero there as a starter if Morrison goes down?3 weeks 5 days ago
moethedogInteresting report on Kemp. Almost like something is in the works.3 weeks 5 days ago
SABR MattKemp...get me KEMP...if he can be got for anything approaching a reasonable cost...then get Gattis to DH/BC and call it good (I don't think we can afford Hanley after getting Kemp). Kemp, Gattis, Chris Young and maybe one other SP option on the cheap.3 weeks 5 days ago
GLSI had no idea the extra option year was even a possibility.3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571The fact the Ms are being aggressive and not just waiting at the altar for a RH hitter looks like it's having an effect. Now let's hear the news from Atlanta! Getting Kemp would scotch Upton, but not necessarily Gattis (which would be my preferred outcome). Then sign Hanley (assuming a SS goes to LA in the trade) and the roster/lineup is remade! Sign Chris Young for innings management and let's get going!3 weeks 5 days ago
Bat571Jon Heyman now reporting Kemp is most likely Dodger OF to get traded.--- --- Verrrry interesting! Maybe the Ms offers to VMart and Martin and the Upton news has got the Dodgers thinking?3 weeks 5 days ago
SABR Mattwell that us time to evaluate him.3 weeks 5 days ago
Tacoma RainPer Dutton, Hultzen has been given an extra option year due to all his injuries.3 weeks 5 days ago
GLSMostly no on Morse. He can't really play any position and I hate his slo-mo swing when he's on deck.3 weeks 5 days ago
SABR MattI'm out on Morse at that price. He's a prime candidate for catastrophic age-out scenarios IMHO. I am not eager to part with Walker, but if we need to part with Walker to get both Gattis and Upton...I think it's a move that works. If we can expent Upton and if we have a plan for filling the rotation.3 weeks 6 days ago
misterjonezIf Atlanta wants more for Upton than they got for Heyward, forget it. If what they really mean is 'the same, given the fact that he costs twice as much salary this year, which effectively means *more*' then try to work it out. The thing to remember about Upton is that he will net a high draft pick next year, which can't be discounted entirely. You can break it down to dollars/pick if you want, but that draft slot could very well net a starter down the road. Still, if we're going to break the bank on a blockbuster, go get Tulowitzki to pair up with Cano. Now THERE would be an A-1, historic-level pair of MIF bats.3 weeks 6 days ago
Tacoma RainWould Morse even consider playing for the Mariners after his accusations about the M's medical staff?3 weeks 6 days ago
moethedogSlipping under the radar without much discussion is Mike Morse. If you could get him for 2X$11M (a number MLBTR suggests as likely), would you do it? Get me Gattis for Ackley and some of the kids, and I would have no problem adding a Morse for that. That's a heck of a better deal than giving up Walker to get one season of Upton.3 weeks 6 days ago
moethedogFind a place for Miller's bat then. That'll do.3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR MattTaylor = Erick Aybar...the comparison is pretty clear stylistically, minor league numbers wise, major league profile wise, physically...3 weeks 6 days ago
moethedogAnd BTW, the more I look at him the more Chris Taylor is growing on me. I think he hit .300 in the womb. I'm beginning to think last year was no fluke, and he has the glove to go with that Hit ability. Young SS's often become better Slg. guys (think Ozzie and Templeton) as they age a bit. I'm not willing to trade him (if avoidable) just yet. Along that line, I would have no problem putting Miller in a COF spot (CF?) if Taylor is a .300-ish guy.3 weeks 6 days ago
moethedogFor example: Ackley's "Hot" 2nd half in '14 was .269-.307-.479 (.786). Saunders' "Hot" 1st half was .276-.327-.434 (.761). Throw out (as pure "noise") Miller's 1st half of '14 and you get numbers that looks like this. 2nd half of '13: .269-.317-.424 (.741). 2nd half of '14: .268-.330-.464 (.794). Huh...Interesting. We're likely short a CF after this year (unless it is Jones). Miller in RF this year with a bit of CF time would be interesting, wouldn't it? Ah well...he's likely our SS and I'm fine with that. But I'll hang on to Taylor for a bit if I can.3 weeks 6 days ago
moethedogI think the issues with Gattis are more related to time and not whether we have a package or not. I want him now so we can move on with the next move. We have a few MiLB bats that are off the table for me (Kivlehan, Deej, Wilson, ?). Beyond that, I tell Atlanta to take their pick. "Who do you guys want?" I might negotiate a bit, but I'm willing to get the swap done today. Ackley and whom? Jones? He's yours. Etc. Kelly would have gone nicely in this offer, too. Goodness knows I'm high on Pizzano......even I would include him to get Gattis.3 weeks 6 days ago
rick82Here's something I missed: Mariners have been named the "Club Retailer of the Year" - no one merchandizes like the M's! weeks 6 days ago
Gordon GrossI think it's more lthat DJ has more trade value as the younger player and higher draftpick, since both he and Pat have similar skillsets. So DJ getting traded would not be for positional flexibility so much as purchase power between two dudes who could have very similar peaks if both pan out, at perhaps the same position.3 weeks 6 days ago
Gordon GrossAs for DJ vs. Kivlehan, I don't think Patrick is all that more flexible yet. Neither guy plays a stellar 3B, both are aimed at 1B, and while Pat is faster he doesn't have much more OF (22 games career) or 1B experience (39 games) than DJ (20 games at first). If Pat gets a ton of OF experience this coming season while DJ plays strictly 1B/3B, then yes. In a perfect world, DJ = Tino Martinez, Pat = Alex Gordon, & both play for us. I doubt all that happens.3 weeks 6 days ago
Gordon GrossAre the Ms working a viable 4-year turnover plan, or are they just being cheap/playing scared with extra years? Depends on your view of the FO. With Pat, DJ, The Jabaris, Pizzano, Guerrero, Lara, Wilson, O'Neill, Morgan, B. Hernandez AND uber-stud Jackson ALL aimed at the OF, you'd think you don't really want to lock down more than one position long-term out there. With the right bridge plan, I don't have a problem with that.3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571And do you and Matt agree that it looks like they're trying to find 4-year bridges to Alex Jackson, Wilson, et al, to be competitive with the pitching they've got and then have those (cheap) guys come in as they have to keep it going?3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571Gordon - what's your thoughts on DJ v. Kivlehan in the near-term? Do you agree that Lloyd's BP use bumps the value of Kivlehan (and the value of Miller being able to backup OF positions) and partially answers the "why WillieB" questions?3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571If the Ms could sign Hanley near-term, it also might make getting Kemp easier - if the Dodgers don't get Alexei Ramirez first. Taylor and Gordon up the middle has got to be looking interesting by now. Somebody just has to whisper "Guerrero, Joc Pederson and Puig" into some LA ears. Then I would be happy with Gattis and Terdoslavich from Atlanta for LH bats, and Upton can go to the Yankees next year from somewhere else.3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571We don't want the Ms to add to your stress, Matt..... So let's figure out what the Ms *should* do, without sacrificing pitching, and then see what happens! ;-) ! And, Gordon, you're right (and, probably, so is Boras) that Upton will get 6/$18 at least on the market. It's the same AAV, but the years....Not sure the Ms are in for the long-term; the guys they've bid on so far have been pricey, but for 4 years. But extending Upton would make me, at least, a LOT more willing to give Hart DJ + LH bats in return. Kemp and Lee both are pricey but <=4 years commitment; would the Ms be better off with them?3 weeks 6 days ago
Gordon GrossMy dreams of giving Felix a World Series trophy before his arm falls off do not include us giving up our version of Madison Bumgarner if we can help it. Kinda think we're gonna need that dude for our first WS... and our second. Neither of those dudes on the table for us is Paul Goldschmidt, sadly. If just money will bring me Hanley or Tomas, or I can get Kemp for lesser prospects, then I'd go that way first. Trading either Paxton or Walker is an option of last resort that has to bring us more than one shot at the brass ring, IMO.3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR MattI'd give up Walker for Gattis and Upton combined...but it would be stress-inducing.3 weeks 6 days ago
Gordon GrossUpton's gonna get 6/100+ IMO, easily. He's a baby still. Swisher got 5/70 before the TV contracts went through the roof, and he was 32 at the time, not 28 like Upton will be. The Yankees will have wads of cash to throw at a player like him - Upton might get a 10 year deal. So because I view him strictly as a one-year rental it's hard for me to justify coughing up Walker or Paxton. DJ for Upton is easier, even if pitchers are more likely to get injured. Strictly speaking, it would almost always be better to trade a top-50 arm prospect instead of a top-50 bat. Pax and Walker feel like exceptions.3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR MattThe Braves supposed want more for just Upton than they got for Heyward. They got Shelby Miller (our equivalent is Elias), and an interesting RP prospect (our equivalent is one of the lower minors relievers) for Heyward and a good set-up man. So they want more than Elias plus a B porpsect from low A ball for Upton's one season. But there's a world of distance between Elias + filler and Walker. Let's see the Braves find some pieces they like in that space and try to keep Walker.3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571I think I understand how Victor Sanchez and Williams Perez can be as successful as they've been without dominating stuff. They both have good control of their FB. And they throw inside. Enough to loosen up the batter's stance. And NOBODY is going to charge the mound about it. I mean, imagine jumping into a Sumo ring! Does insanity run in your family? Well, it won't for long!3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571<p>Then there was my block-buster proposal of a few days ago - Ackley, Saunders, DJ, and Erasmo for Upton, Gattis, Terdoslavich, and Williams Perez (who Atlanta just added to their 40-man). Swap out Morban and Marte for Saunders and Atlanta might still like it a lot - but giving up DJ for 1 year of Upton is the stumbling block. Too bad so few players are willing to negotiate extensions as part of trades anymore. Boras has convinced all the agents it's a bad idea. If Upton would take a 3/$18M extension, it would all fit But I suspect Upton thinks he's worth more than that. Put Guerrero or Choi in for DJ, and you don't solve the Braves' post-Chipper 3B problem. And I wouldn't trade Kivlehan - his potential versatility is gold for an AL team with a manager that likes a big 'pen. Because of Lloyd, I think Kivlehan may be more valuable to the Ms than DJ.</p> 3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571And it would be fun to hear Rizz pronounce ter-DOSS-la-vich - would he dub him Terdy?3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571Marte would be someone the Braves would have interest in as well - Simmons isn't going anywhere, and Peraza is almost as close as Marte, but he'd be very nice depth for them. So - Ackley, Marte, and another piece (Morban?) for Gattis and Terdoslavich?3 weeks 6 days ago
Gordon GrossI think we're trying to work out the package deal cost. One year of Upton, plus Gattis, is worth what exactly? More than Ackley plus Marte. Less than Walker + Ackley + stuff. I don't expect them to go for Marte (more likely Guerrero from us), cuz they're one of the few teams that has a top prospect almost exactly like him (Jose Peraza, a better defender too). I don't see them getting Walker out of us unless they're tossing Lucas Sims back, and they don't have many farm pieces we'd want. Coming to price agreement and piece fit would seem to be the holdup to me on Gattis and/or Upton.3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571The Braves lineup (and bench) is ~all RH except for Freddie Freeman and they're said to want a couple of LH bats - both power and OBP types. So, yeah, Gordon, most any LH-hitting position player would be of interest. As to C, they can't make room for Bethancourt fast enough - I wouldn't be surprised if they pick up Jose Molina (whom they rays DFAed) to be his mentor. But they wouldn't be interested in what the Ms have there. They do want a CF, though. Maybe Landry is the 2nd piece in a slightly bigger deal? I still think Joey Terdoslavich would be a nice get if the trade can be for more than Gattis - Van Slyke a couple of years ago? Blocked by Freeman at 1B, and not a starter in the OF, but OK there, and originally a 3B. Getting a bit old (26). But his (switch-hitting) bat will play in the same way Van Slyke's does - 300 ABs moving around the corner spots and DH.3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR MattMaybe we can give them Ackley and Marte...I don't think just Ackley gets it done.3 weeks 6 days ago
Gordon GrossMore likely Hicks. They have Christian Bethancourt though, so maybe they won't want a baby-catcher tandem and will instead look to fill via FA/trade with a vet instead. Their system is pretty thin, especially on position players - they can use most any position player we'd be willing to swap with them.3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR MattI think the Braves will want a catcher back in a Gattis deal. Ackley and Sucre?3 weeks 6 days ago
Gordon GrossGattis reminds me of Mike Napoli, without quite the same number of walks. When the Angels wouldn't let Napoli hit for them I was pretty confused. The Braves don't have a DH and using him at catcher is a short-term solution. He's a trade that makes sense for them if they can get a better-fitting piece back. I think he could fit in pretty nicely here. The Ms can't keep coming in 2nd on adding RH bats with some thump - gotta eventually take a couple people to the dance.3 weeks 6 days ago
Gordon GrossOlmos has touched the upper 90s as a lefty. It's astounding how he can't get significant Ks, even in the minors, with lefty heat like that. I'm hoping the Ms can make a mechanical tweak to allow him to get his stuff over the plate more consistently so that people HAVE to swing. You hope your coach can correct the flaw (a la that Matt Thornton to the White Sox deal mentioned earlier in the shouts, who had almost exactly the same issue and was permanently fixed after three pen sessions with his new club). Could be interesting. And Gaviglio is just another Jordan Pries - good to have in case of emergency, but man you hope that emergency doesn't show up right now.3 weeks 6 days ago
rick82Gattis. I sure like his overall body of work. Entered pretty much every minor league level above the average age and promptly went to work hitting effectively each time. Went to the major leagues and immediately did the same. No adjustment periods, no flash really. No "hot young prospect" tag. Nothing to hype. Kinda has that Ty Kelly feel to him. What you expect to get, is what you get. I wonder if Kelly will have a similar opportunity. I love how I get that just by reading a baseball card, so to speak. I don't know a thing about Gattis beyond that card. I may be wrong. He may have been hyped and eagerly anticipated for all I know. Gattis for Ackley? I don't see a marked improvement in our offense. I'd rather add than swap. I don't want to trade our pitching depth, so Elias is someone I'd rather keep. But...I like Gattis, and a even swap is something I can live with. He brings good stuff to the table, as do Ackley and Elias.3 weeks 6 days ago
moethedogOK: M's have been like to Cruz, Upton, Gattis, Kemp and just about every RH bat out there. Not much so to Tomas or (TaDah!) Carlos Quentin of the Padres. Quentin is a walking injury, but hits when he plays (despite a dismal '14. He's only 31 and playing DH much of the time might be very good for him). Prospects would get it done. He'as a better roll of the dice than Hart was, for sure. I think I would be all over this one, were I Z. Gt Gattis for Ackley and you could have an order that looks remarkably like Jackson-Saunders-Cano-Quentin-Seager-Gattis-Morrison-Zunino-Miller Romero/Bloomie/Taylor/BU C on the bench. And I hate rosterbating like that. Quentin could be had. Get in-play hard, Z.3 weeks 6 days ago
moethedogI think I had a Shout dropped, too. Anyway, I commented on the Kelly for Random Surplus Arm swap, too. Good for Ty Kelly. He goes to THE great organization, will get a shot, and (I believe) will contribute. I wish we had kept him and used him. He's more classically a NL guy (switchie/utility/etc) but that is exactly why I wanted to keep him. OH, he'll probably play in the '15 WS. Gaviglio? Terrible last year in AA, decent before.3 weeks 6 days ago
misterjonezDefinitely agree, TR...although, I assume you're talking about Thornton when he was an M, because the post-M's Thornton was a heck of a reliever ;-) Would be nice to get a few breaks our way...outside of Branyan I have a hard time remembering players who cam here in the last decade and dramatically outperformed their established track records. Totally unrelated, but man do I miss prime Arthur Rhodes.3 weeks 6 days ago
Tacoma RainYes Olmos has a fastball and size... and I have been one of the more vocal guys wanting Andrew Miller because of the lefty flamethrower, and the fact that the Mariners do not have one - until now. I just hope Olmos is more Miller than Thornton.3 weeks 6 days ago
misterjonezOlmos is definitely pen material, but Gaviglio is a groundballer with good K's at AA and peripherals that suggest his ERA should have been closer to 3 than 4 at that level,.so he might stick in the rotation. Regardless, though, this team didn't really need MIF, it needed SP depth. But yeah, on Olmos I'm not entirely certain what they see there...although, perusing his Fangraphs page suggests that, in 2013 during a cup of coffee, his four seamer was over 95mph (someone check me on that). Couple that with a 6'5" frame and I guess I can see why they'd take a flier on him. Flame-throwing lefties don't grow on trees, and he warranted a 3rd round selection back in '08.3 weeks 6 days ago
Tacoma RainI hope you are right Jonez... but neither Olmos nor Gaviglio excite me, and I expect both to be relievers in Tacoma at best.3 weeks 6 days ago
misterjonezAnd the M's end up with a high minors arm to provide rotation depth. A good move, given all of the MIF on the current roster - and the possibility of adding to that mix with Hanley.3 weeks 6 days ago
Tacoma RainTy Kelly traded to the Cardinals... another smart organizational move by the Cardinals.3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571I had a shout comment dropped, but basically I agreed with Moe that Upton might be too pricey for the return, and getting Gattis alone might be more the right thing. Since Atlanta needs and wants LH hitters to rebalance, maybe Ackley for Gattis would work straight up? Then go get Hanley and/or Kemp and keep Saunders for LF since he seems to be healing wounds. It would work out to be expensive, but the budget situation might be better than we think - which led to my next comment about the bidding on VMart and Martin.3 weeks 6 days ago
misterjonezdoubled up on the '100' below. Whoops ;-)3 weeks 6 days ago
misterjonezMost metrics do rate Martin as top-tier defensively, and he's got a bat that even during a bad year isn't far from league average. His yearly WRC+, since 2006: 103, 122, 112, 87, 90, 100, 100, 95, 102, and 140 in 2014. Even dismissing this season, a league average bat, at C, to go with one of the best - if not the best - defensive contributions that we can currently measure for the position is worth a lot. He's been worth over 4 Fangraphs WAR four times in his career and under 2 WAR twice with one of those being a year he only played 97 games while earning 1.9 WAR. Dude's a machine. He's aging, no doubt, but he's a machine.3 weeks 6 days ago
moethedogToronto overpaid on a bat, anyway. He had 5 years where he hit like Smoak (Wait...Toronto got him, too) before last year. Aging catchers don't often hit that well very long. Is he THAT good defensively? He had better be.3 weeks 6 days ago
moethedogAgreed Matt. I think we can get Gattis for Ackley and stuff. Or Elias, perhaps. But I think I keep our young rotation guys if I can. Then we get the other bat.3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR MattSupposedly the Mariners offered Martin like $75 and VMart something very close to what he actually sideways.3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR MattCruz won't get more than 4 with a vesting option. If the Mariners would like to sign Cruz and then trade for Gattis or Upton...I can live with that.3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571Hearing what the Ms apparently bid on VMart and Russell Martin gives me hope the M's FO is now (finally?) REALLY serious in trying to swing something, and may expand the budget enough to do some real signings/trades this time. If so, I hope they don't end up doing too much over-pay to get the bats they need. I don't want Nelson Cruz on a 6-year contract!3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR MattI want both of those guys...not just one of them...we need two bats. We can get JUST Gattis or JUST Upton and then get a different bat...but we need two bats.3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR MattI give up Walker if it's a play that really gives us a great shot to win in 2015 and gives us long term value...Upton/Gattis for Walker and minor fillers is such a move if we have a way to get a pitcher in here to replace Walker for the short term. I love Walker, but I think counting on him in 2015 is risky if your goal is to win in 2015...would almost RATHER cash him in for a game-changer on offense and then go acquire a more sure-thing pitcher.3 weeks 6 days ago
misterjonezFor sure, moe, if Gattis is gettable for a complementary piece then we're better off getting just him and keeping Walker - that dude is going to be a stud. But I get the feeling that Elias+ should net us Upton, given the return they took on Heyward who is pretty clearly a superior overall player to Upton, so I doubt we have to part with Walker to get Upton - which would be my first play, long before Gattis (who's actually a year OLDER than J. Upton), simply because we need that MOTO RH bat right now.3 weeks 6 days ago
GLSUpton and Gattis are both pretty interesting, but neither walks a whole heck of a lot.3 weeks 6 days ago
misterjonezI'd give up Walker for Tulowitzki, not sure about J. Upton...I might if we got a negotiating window with him. Actually, I probably would if we got the opportunity to lock him up long-term as a conditional part of the deal. There's nothing in Upton's profile that suggests problems down the road, he's still in his baseball prime, and would be a fixture in the OF for us for years to come. But Walker for Gattis+Upton as a rental looks like a definite overpay. Then again, you do get the compensation pick if Upton walks...boy, that's tough.3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR MattLee is probably too expensive if we added Upton...same with Lester. But we might be able to get someone's MLB ready #3-type pitcher to fill in along with Chris Young to keep the rotation populated.3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571And, Matt, I would take the under on 360 AAA PAs for John Hicks as long as he doesn't get hurt. So, around the AS break. Even if the M's get Gattis, his physical ailments will mean they'll want to use him at DH, and if Sucre can't OPS >.600, he's not useful if Hicks is as good defensively (which he apparently is). July.3 weeks 6 days ago
moethedogto me. One year guys who are gone....I don't know about. Would you trade Walker for Gattis? Beyond this year that is what it equals. Are we signing a pitcher? Whom? All would apply. It would be a very near thing...but I might just close my eyes and do it. Maybe.... End the end, I would just work at getting Gattis, I think.....and have Walker AND Gattis beyond '15.3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571As long as they're trading some Tylers - Matt, do you think Guerrero and Tyler Pike might be enough to get Lee? I know Philly under Amaro has been erratic in valuing players, but now Gillick is a stronger hand in things. If the Ms didn't ask for more than, say, a third of the remaining cost on Lee's contract, do you think prospects could get it done? Again, this would be IFF we traded Walker.3 weeks 6 days ago
GLSNah, I'm not giving up Walker for Upton.3 weeks 6 days ago
moethedogWell good luck to Ty Kelly. I hate losing him, I think he can play, but he's going to the best org in baseball....and it looks like he will get a shot. Gaviglio was terrible last year...but not bad the year before. Mostly a give away, I think. Get 'em Ty.3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571If Walker brought both Upton and Gattis without too much more included (Medina & Erasmo?), it's proably worth holding the nose and doing it - but they'd better be in on the bidding for Lester AND re-sign Chris Young before they close the deal. If they can't get Lester, does Guerrero + get Cliff Lee? I'd still rather give up D.J. Peterson than ANY pitching to trade with Atlanta, but if the Braves are really that anxious ...3 weeks 6 days ago
Bat571Ty Kelly traded for Sam Gaviglio from the Cards. Gaviglio is from Ashland and went to OSU. Starting pitching depth, apparently. Gaviglio hasn't been particularly successful, but his numbers look OK. Better than just losing Kelly to the Rule 5, I guess.3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR Mattthought of the day - the Braves reportedly really want Taijuan Walker. Would you be willing to do Walker for Justin Upton *AND* Evan Gattis?3 weeks 6 days ago
SABR Matthat tip for the effort, rick...but the presence of the t in fact bars it from use in an ackley portmanteau. :)4 weeks 23 min ago
SABR MattHicks....tellin' ya...he's gonna be up by no later than September4 weeks 24 min ago
misterjonezright-hander Mayckol Guaipe, catcher John Hicks and infielder Ketel Marte added to the 40 man, per MLBTraderumors via weeks 47 min ago
moethedogUnless I've missed it, the M's are waiting until the 11th hour to announce their 40-Man/Rule 5 decisions. there a trade in the works?4 weeks 1 hour ago
misterjonezVan Slyke, for a mid-range (for us) bullpen arm and I'm sold. Anything more, forget about it. He's strictly a rotational player, which is basically what a bullpen arm is. This team dearly needs a bat the caliber of Tulowitzki, Ramirez, Cruz, J. Upton or Kemp. If the M's don't get a hitter of that caliber (AND a guy like Van Slyke), the offseason is almost certainly a failure. There's still plenty of time, but striking early would be beneficial.4 weeks 2 hours ago
jemanjiThanks for keepin the site hopping guys … been out sick for a coupla days … probably see yer tomorry ...4 weeks 3 hours ago
rick82Oh, is that a matter of factly?4 weeks 3 hours ago
benihanaI thought Logan had a great article over on LoL - - in which he points out that "the new-look Safeco Field [is] one of the worst places to hit in the sport. Especially to left center field" - they moved the fences in, but less doubles > more homers. The M's need more good bats, not necessarily more righty-thump. Heck any of Thomas, Cabrerra, Ramirez... I'm good. I don't like Cruz in this park at his age for his estimated price.4 weeks 8 hours ago
SABR MattI think now is a good time to sell high on whackley. Before he turns back into gackley. And then all we back for him is an equipment sackley. What we really need, at present, as some right handed smackley. Anyone who disagrees must be on crackley. :)4 weeks 8 hours ago
moethedogBTW, after mentioning Saunders I find that at least one Oriole site is suggesting they send us SP Miguel Gonzalez for Saunders. if Saunders is gone, anyway, we could get worse returns. He's Chris Young-ish, right now. Three years, cheap, too. I wouldn't bet the O's are willing to pull that trigger, however. OK, too much Shouting for me. I'm done.4 weeks 8 hours ago
moethedogRick, Ackley's gone "eventually" (aren't we all?). If he doesn't hit this year we ship him out. If he hits, we likely keep him for one more then ship him out before we get Boras-ed. Because he can play 2nd pretty well, I think he is our most attractive trade option, more so than Saunders. If he's your best trade chit, and you have RHB needs, then you have to consider trading him: Unless, of course, you're extremely confident his 2nd half is the real him. I'm not that confident. A .435 BABIP in July fueled all that. His 2nd half still saw just 13 BB's to 45 K's. Realistically, I think, you have to decide if his 9 homers in 174 AB's from Aug. 1st, onward, is 'really" him. To do so, you have to overlook his 27 in the 1650 prior AB's.4 weeks 8 hours ago
moethedogMore than anybody, I've argued that sans homers and pulling the ball hard Ackley's value really declines. He hit 12 of his 14 homers to RF and (doing a quick spray chart glance) 18 of his 27 doubles there, too. But I can't help believing those 9 homers in 170+ AB's is not something to count on. Were we to be able to get Gattis for him, I would jump in in a moment. Alas, he would probably look like Wade Boggs from then on, but I'm willing to take the risk for a RH booming (and cheap) Gattis.4 weeks 8 hours ago
SABR MattCruz might need to be overpaid to get for us...but I'd rather do that than lose again in 2015. Cruz by himself isn't enough though...we would need to trade for a cheap OF/1B bat to go with him to have any hope of having enough offense.4 weeks 8 hours ago
Gordon GrossI'm having a hard time seeing us get Kemp out of there over one of the paid-down other options too, moe - sometimes you gotta go with your backup plan. Either Kemp or Hanley would work for me as the first bat we add, but if we can't land either of those two dudes then we'll need to be able to do better than we have the last few years with backup plans. Rather see us get another Plan A like Cano in here, though.4 weeks 9 hours ago
moethedogVan Slyke has killed lefties at AAA and in his 232 MLB PA's against them: .268-.362-.530. In '13 in LA he hit RHP just fine, too. So he's got that going for him. Had Romero just hit lefties to the tune of a .892 OPS last year he would be a "darling," too. That said, there's a thread above where I posit that Romero isn't "done" and still has real whacking potential. I believe that. It was LAST year that I was all over getting Van Slyke (we should have), not necessarily this year. But my point below is that I'm not sure the Dodgers are likely to trade Kemp, minus their adding a very solid RHB (resigning Hanley, for example). And in lieu of that, and realizing they still need to dump an OF, I suggested that Ethier (and subsidy) was perhaps a more likely trade get.4 weeks 9 hours ago
moethedogGetting Ethier, by himself, doesn't really address a real need for us. Getting him along with Van Slyke would. That was it. Matt is right about the greener grass in somebody else's prospect farm, BTW (hence my reminder about Romero).4 weeks 9 hours ago
SABR Mattagreed benihana - Van Slyke is a darling of the Mariner blogosphere becasue he hit really well in a not-too-heavily-exposed small MLB sample of at bats while our guys got exposed and hit poorly. The grass is always greener on someone else's prospect farm.4 weeks 10 hours ago
benihanaI don't get the Van Slyke love. Don't see how he's a better bet than Stefen Romero, who's younger, more agile and outperformed him at the minor league level. Two months worth of big league at bats the difference maker?4 weeks 11 hours ago
rick82I don't want to lose Ackley, Bat, but I see merit in your plan.4 weeks 12 hours ago
moethedogoops...Meant Taylor/Ackley not Miller/Ackley4 weeks 12 hours ago
moethedogI'm kinda arriving at the spot where I think the Dodgers are not going to trade Kemp. With Ramirez gone they have already lost 500 potent RH PA's Losing another 600 from Kemp, for a team that fancies itself as a "Contendah" may be too much. Losing Van Slyke's 246 PA's likely wouldn't be. As shouted below, I think the move (and perhaps the relative bargain) is to chase Van Slyke AND Ethier, in a package deal. There's traction to be had there, I think, and a bit of a subsidy, perhaps. Miller/Ackley certainly gets you there. Hicks/Ackley/RP maybe does. You would still be a RH bat short, perhaps, and you would have to make a decision on keeping Saunders. But this deal could get done...more easily than Kemp, I think. If the Dodger's sign a RHB, then Kemp is a goner. Until then, however, I don't know.....4 weeks 12 hours ago
Bat571Rick, I understand your frustration! But my "plan" below assumes the Condor is turning things around with the club and will stay an M - an OF of Saunders-Jackson-Kemp wouldn't be that horrible, and Kemp would DH part-time against some RHs when Gattis or Zunino would take a seat and SVS would play RF. But I'm just trying to figure out how the Ms might use other team's needs to construct trades without giving up starting pitching (except Erasmo). Other than the possibility of Hanley, it looks like trading is the path forward. But I'd much rather re-add Chris Young to the five we got than trade any of the four that people have been discussing. Also, Jonzie, trading always seems to be held closer than FA signings because the agents are less involved in setting value, and some players don't like the speculation.4 weeks 16 hours ago
misterjonezI expected the M's to be more actively discussed in trade talks this offseason. Either they're as active there as they seem to be on the FA market, but covertly so, or they've shied away from trades because teams are asking for Paxton/Walker to headline any package. I think that Elias should pretty easily net us Upton, maybe even Upton plus, and Roenis has to be one of the most trade-able pieces the M's have this year. But if teams are saying "Paxton/Walker to start, or take a hike," that would put more pressure on Z to explore FA first. Otherwise, it seems strange that the M's haven't been connected in trade rumors to just about every major bat out there. Or maybe this is just how it works in the days leading up to the 40 man cutoff? I don't just seems strange how loud the M's have been in the FA market and how quiet they've been on the trade market.4 weeks 19 hours ago
rick82Yes, by all means replace Ackley in the OF with Kemp, and get Gattis some games out there as well. We need to degrade our defense a bit to assure Felix isn't deprived of a Cy Young again. Cleveland's woeful defense somehow put Kluber over the top in the minds of the voters. Too much Ackley, Saunders, Seager, Zunino, Taylor, Miller and Cano merely counted again the King.4 weeks 19 hours ago
misterjonezBat, if LAD would do that deal and provide ~25% salary relief for Kemp's contract, I'd snap it up in a heartbeat. But it seems I'm a little higher than most around here on Kemp. Dude uses the entire field for his extra base hits and has the power to transcend the park while playing RF ~passably (he grades out better there than in LF by a wide margin, according to UZR, although he's still a well below average RF defensively).4 weeks 20 hours ago
moethedog40-Man Roster day is Thursday, isn't it? Do I have that right. If Ty Kelly isn't on the 40-Man, he's gong to be Rule 5'ed.4 weeks 21 hours ago
Bat571Still think Taylor-Marlette-Medina-Guerrero might get Kemp and Van Slyke, with Furbush additional to up the subsidy, if needed. (LA needs help at SS, BP, and future help at C, and though their outfield is crowded, it's also aging). Then trade Ackley for Gattis (Atlanta needs an interim 2B that can move to LF in a year or so if their prospect Peraza keeps it up). Trying to see how the M's excess might match other teams' needs.4 weeks 23 hours ago
moethedogSo the Dodgers just picked up a AAA RH COF/1B Masher named Kyle Jensen. Might they be ready to trade a MLB RH COF/1B masher named Scott Van Slyke? If you could get Van Slyke and a partially subsidized Ethier for Ackley (who they plug in at 2B) and Marte (or some such) + a RP, would you? Ackley starts getting more expensive next year....which helps absorb some of the Ethier $, and it is a Pick 'Em bet as to who would be the better bat over the next couple of seasons. Ethier is one season removed from being the player we hope Ackley could become. Then you go get Gattis, etc. Would you be in? I don't think it is a totally impossible scenario. You get Van Slyke for freeing up LA's salary/OF log jam. LA may have to do something like that.4 weeks 1 day ago
SABR MattPegs would be getting more ABs than Hunter in any doesn't help much.4 weeks 1 day ago
Bat571Matt - you missed part of that - they want to do a DH/RF jobshare with Peguero and Torii Hunter (who they're trying to sign). Maybe Torii can help him??4 weeks 1 day ago
SABR MattRoyals considering using Carlos Peguero in a DH jobshare. Goooooooooooood luck with that.4 weeks 1 day ago
SABR Mattyep...I'm assuming that's why we are in on Gattis as well...would love to get him if it doesn't cost us something else we need in 2015.4 weeks 1 day ago
Gordon GrossI assumed that's part of why we want Gattis - so Zunino doesn't have to catch every game, and the catcher can still hit when Mike's not in the game. Let Zunino catch 120 games, have Gattis catch 40 and DH or play LF in the rest, call it good. Gattis isn't a great defensive catcher, but he's basically what we wanted Montero to be. There's value in that. We'll see if we can make that happen.4 weeks 1 day ago
SABR MattI'd love for us to trade for Jason Castro. Dude can hit if he's not overtaxed...they could jobshare for 81 games apiece.4 weeks 1 day ago
GLSInteresting note in MLBTR that the M's were in on Russell Martin. No details really, but it's interesting that they don't necessarily view that spot as completely owned by Mike Zunino.4 weeks 1 day ago
moethedogI love Billy Beane. He's my hero. If Z were really creative he would be under the radar and trying to buy out Wlad Balentien's contract with the Yakult Swallows (one year left) and see what he brings back to Seattle. No opposition here. To tell you the truth, one year of Upton needs to be relatively cheap before I'm too excited, I would still do Craig, Cruz is now pretty expensive I think, and I like four years of Gattis. Kemp and the subsidy is still very nice. The more I think about it, I have no problem using Ackley in any trade, BTW. I'm selling high on him. But I would like Z to make a move....soon.4 weeks 1 day ago
IcebreakerXBilly Butler sounds like the new Erubiel Durazo. Billy gets smitten and chases all over for his coveted Pokemon card. In any case, I'm glad the M's didn't bid on Butler... That combination of high OBP that's unsupported by declining SLG just doesn't feel reliable nor be a worthy buy. I guess 10 mill a year is the right price from a WAR perspective or whatever.4 weeks 1 day ago
misterjonezAs for Butler...$30mil over three years isn't crippling by any stretch, but it does seem to be an overpay. I would have thought a two year deal at $10mil/year would get the job done, but apparently I was mistaken. I like Butler's bat well enough that I would have paid him $10m x 2 years without even thinking about it. But three years...I'd probably rather sweeten the offer to Hanley/Cruz, or trade for J. Upton and work out an extension with him. Still, if Country Breakfast returns to form (which, given his age, seems to be a strong possibility) then that contract is a bargain. There aren't a lot of teams on which a career-averages version of Billy Butler doesn't hit 3rd or 4th.4 weeks 1 day ago
misterjonez4/70 for Cruz seems about right, oddly enough. I commented on LL and compared his last three years' value to Victor Martinez when I found Cruz to be worth 10-15% less over that period, but he can play LF reasonably well (lifetime UZR/150 @ LF is 9.5, and his 2014 mark was 5.8) and is over a year younger than V-Mart. His home/road splits last year were oddly inverted, which could just be noise or it could be a sign that he doesn't actually care what park he plays in. He's also proven he can hit well as a DH, which actually is a skill, ladies and gentlemen, and he's coming off a year where he was the only 40 HR man in the big leagues. He's going to get paid. It's possible someone can get him for a shorter commitment than four years, but no way the salary is less than $15mil/year in my humble opinion.4 weeks 1 day ago
rick82I see he turned down 15.3 mil. QO from the O's. Yeah he could get more than that from us, so definitely turn it down. But 4/70?4 weeks 1 day ago
rick82I keep hearing 4/70 for Cruz. Who is out there willing to pay a DH/poor to atrocious outfielder that kind of money? Who,would we be bidding against? Baltimore? Anyone else?4 weeks 1 day ago
SABR MattInteresting that Billy Beane thinks Butler will be a good bet. I'm nor sure I agree with him on this one............4 weeks 1 day ago
SABR MattNope. All of his power is gone and his once superior glove is now average or so...that makes him no better than median Dustin Ackley and much worse than 2H Dustin Ackley or the average of Michael Saunders' ups and downs.1 month 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossQuestion: if Nick Markakis can't come to terms with the Orioles (which I don't see happening because the owner loves that dude... but he still ain't signed so there's some smoke there) - do you pursue him in any way? He plays a buncha games but his doubles have evaporated over the last few years, and they aren't going over the wall either. He'll run you a pretty penny and is not the thumper you're looking for, but if Hanley and Cruz and Kemp don't get here, you're left trying to get one of these kinds of guys. Is he on any menu?1 month 9 hours ago
Gordon GrossYup, on both counts. But it takes two, and Hanley might bet a better offer - or just prefer not to play baseball in a cold weather home park for the first time in his life. Going from Miami and LA to Seattle is a jump, especially since we're in South Alaska. If money does talk, my guess is we'll pay a premium to overcome that. Cano, Felix and being on the brink of the playoffs will hopefully ameliorate that issue a bit.1 month 10 hours ago
SABR Mattagreed Gordon. I want Hanley just because I think he's a better fit for our ballpark and less likely to age catastrophically. I fear Cruz is going to pull a Sexson eventually.1 month 10 hours ago
Gordon GrossI consider Hanley unlikely too, but I'd prefer him to Cruz. Cruz is gonna get 4/70 like V-Mart, and might be able to squeeze that 5th year out of someone because he's a year younger than Victor. Rather pay Hanley for 7 than Nelson for 5 - but I guess we'll see how that goes.1 month 10 hours ago
SABR MattSupposedly, the Mariners are most interested in Cruz and consider Hanley Ramirez unlikely.1 month 10 hours ago
SABR MattThat I would do.1 month 11 hours ago
benihanaIwakuma for Upton straight up. Just sayin'.1 month 11 hours ago
Gordon GrossWhich brings up 2 questions for me: 1) in an era where good hitters are harder and harder to find, what is one worth on the trade market, or as a prospect? 2) Are we better off relying on the fact that pitching is getting "easier" and even if it's not really much safer is is more recoverable than in the past - so getting good RH hitters is the hardest thing to accomplish in 2015? If so, that might force a higher price point than expected.1 month 11 hours ago
Gordon GrossWhat's having a nice playoff run worth to you? Gattis is a club-controlled, non-walking Napoli and Upton is Upton. Add Hanley, keep a bunch of cost-controlled dudes climbing the ladder and keeping payroll somewhat manageable... Losing Walker would hurt, and I don't think we'd win that deal. But if it convinces Hanley to sign here because we're serious, then doesn't that mean we actually do win? Walker and Miller should bring more than one year of Upton and a decent DH type who may not be able to DH. Prospect value has been lowered in recent times, however. We have a replacement for Miller, but not for Walker. I'd rather trade fungible assets than singular ones.1 month 11 hours ago
Gordon GrossThe only way Walker goes for Upton by alone is if we think he's about to fall apart (Walker, that is) and we pull a Rafael Soriano. Schoenfield, a Seattle dude working for the East Coast Sporting News Network, proposes Walker and one of Taylor/Miller for Upton and Evan Gattis. THEN he wants to sign Hanley. While we're dreaming let's go all the way right? Payroll up to $135 mil or so, which is still "reasonable" by Mariners standards of never going into the red (thank you, new TV deals). We'd get a draftpick for giving Upton the QO the following year, assuming we can't sign him (and I'm betting we can't, especially if we added Hanley - but by then one of the baby OF bats might be ready).1 month 11 hours ago
moethedogEven Buster Olney seems to think Walker might go for Upton; Uh, no! That would be the opposite of a Craig trade. Years of Walker for one of Upton? Nope. No thanks. But Gattis would be interesting for the right guy or two. HIcks would have to be one. And then a MLB guy. Ackley or Saunders....Ackley, likely. Ackley and Hicks might get him. A close thing, I think. 14 of his 22 homers went 400ft or more last year and he averaged 399. Average SOB was 104.5. 4 years of Gattis would be a nice thing, perhaps. He could 1B/DH/LF/C for us. Interesting. I like him, he's cheap and he has power. Not a great defensive guy, to say the least, in the OF. Getting Upton AND Gattis is mighty complicated Bat. Getting Gattis, alone, is less so. Were the deal right, anyway. Is his back healthy? I would have to ponder....but maybe. His value is really as a C, and we have one.1 month 12 hours ago
Bat571Or, how about this --- John Hart will probably want Ackley, Saunders, and D.J. Peterson from the M's to fill his holes, and get the LH bats he wants. But, in my mind, that's a bit too much for 1 year of Upton and then Gattis for a DH. But if Atlanta put in Joey Terdoslavich, it might start to make sense. Deej is better at 3B, but is blocked by Seager. Terdoslavich is better at 1B, but is blocked by Freeman, and needs a change of scenery by all accounts. Terdoslavich *can* play the OF, but can really play 1B and really hit. Maybe there's a pretty nice match-up there! One of their AA pitchers, Williams Perez, might make a good swap for Erasmo as well, if a blockbuster is of interest. Perez is a big guy like Victor Sanchez, but has gotten good results from his stuff, but is a year or so away. Erasmo would be ready to go in April.1 month 19 hours ago
Bat571And if Van Slyke makes sense as a stop-loss benchie, then I've got to admit Craig makes some sense, too - at the right price. I wonder if some combination of 2-3 of Erasmo, Victor Sanchez, Marte, Morban, Choi, or a BP arm might be enough to spring Craig at a reasonable-contract-remaining value. Probably not, but it might be worth discussing - if Boston doesn't sign one of the "name" pitchers, they're going to be hurting for pitching depth. And the Ms still have a bit of a 40-man crunch if they might need Hicks or Kivlehan next year.1 month 21 hours ago
Bat571And none of all that prevents the Ms from also signing Hanley Ramirez, if they want. Upton's money for next year won't take that much more than has come off the books, if Saunders' and Ackley's probable arb settlements are included. I still might make a run at Chris Young at that point, specifically to help with innings management. The M's standard need in LF would remain - and maybe Hanley and Miller could work a share?1 month 21 hours ago
Bat571At that point, Van Slyke makes even more sense as a stop-loss in LF and backup 1B - that would be the remaining weakness - if Morrison goes down and Ackley's gone, would they use Montero or Jones or WillieB?1 month 21 hours ago
Bat571Hart fills his holes, re-establishes his L-R lineup balance, cuts his payroll, and still has a competitive team in the very tough NL East.1 month 21 hours ago
Bat571And the Ms keep what is now the #19 pick in the draft.1 month 22 hours ago
Bat571The Braves are strongly RH now - and their pitching is looking better. I still wouldn't trade ANY starting pitching that's close to MLB-ready, except Erasmo, who's out of options. But the Braves need an interim 2B who could move to LF if Peraza is all he seems, a 3B and a RF, and maybe a CF. Wonder if Ackley (back to 2B for now), Romero (for 3B, reputedly his best position), and Saunders, with Erasmo or Medina or Landry or even Guerrero as a sweetener, might bring back Justin Upton and Gattis. That's 2 MLB(tm) LH bats, a still-coming RH bat, and some more to fill both the Ms holes at DH and RF. Then the M's would need to find a LF from Jones/Kivlehan/Blash or another trade. The Nationals are still looking for IF depth - maybe Taylor to them for Souza?1 month 22 hours ago
moethedogBilly Beane picks up RHB 1B Alex Hassan of the scrapheap from Boston. His last two years at AAA he's hit .328-.409-.492 and .329-.448-.586 vs. LHP. Billy being Billy.1 month 22 hours ago
misterjonezUpton has made too much sense since the offseason began. He can't be the Big Add all by his lonesome, but as a 1A/1B situation he would be great. Him and Cruz or Kemp would pretty much do it, no? Upton would probably cost us Elias+unnamed prospect, but that has to be fair given Elias' 5 remaining years of club control and his ~average production. Interesting that Seattle wasn't on Uptons 4 team no trade you think that means he'd be ok with coming here, or that he assumes we won't pursue him since we were shunned once before?1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattUpton would cost the Mariners about 12 mil this year in salary...we'd have more money for someone like Cruz I think.1 month 1 day ago
Bat571Silverio is not Marco Gonzales, but he fits the near-ready LH SP-depth, bullpen-now template.1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossFYI: Justin Upton, career line: .274/ .354/ .476 /.830. Raul Ibanez was a .272/ .335/ .465/ .801 hitter, and Jayson Werth a .276/ .370/ .469/ .839 one. Both of those guys started in the pros much later than Justin, but still: if that's his contribution bracket, then we still need another dude. Better to have one Ibanez at the plate than zero, however - let's see what the price is and if we can land that fish (Brave, whatever).1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattBraves need interesting arms...E-Ram is out of options...just a thought.1 month 1 day ago
rick82Even I, the Nelson Cruz fanboy of Hot Stove League 2014-15, was shocked to see this: I assumed Cruz's numbers were inflated by Baltimore. But...Cruz in Baltimore in 2014 slugged .463 at home, and slugged .584 on the road (.783 OPS vs. .930).1 month 1 day ago
Gordon GrossJustin cannot escape us - but as Matt says, hopefully the price is not what it would have been before. I'd rather trade a couple of the top system pieces now as opposed to throwing Walker + Franklin + Paxton at the D-Backs. As for Siverio, I have to think this is more of a bullpen move to replace/enhance our lefty options than it is a move for the rotation. And there ain't a thing wrong with that - Beimel can spin straw into gold indefinitely.1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattUpton is bad defensively...that's the bad news. But good enough to handle RF I suppose...then add Nelson Cruz to DH and call it good.1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattLOL...just not for Walker + + this time, please. Maybe Saunders, Pries, and Wilhelmson?1 month 1 day ago
moethedogAfter the Braves traded Jason Heyward to the Cardinals on Monday, it appears as if outfielder Justin Upton could be the next man to leave Atlanta, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today on Monday. Per Nightengale, the Mariners are a strong suitor to acquire the 27-year-old right fielder.1 month 1 day ago
moethedogThe Mariners announced Monday they signed Cuban left-handed pitcher Misael Siverio to a contract, according to The 25-year-old pitcher, who left Cuba in July 2013, played for the Aguilas de Mexicali in the Mexican Pacific League last winter, where he went 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 36 strikeouts in six starts.1 month 1 day ago
SABR Mattindeed...big time blockbuster move. Jays got Russell Martin but at an awfully high price. Zunino is theoretically Martin's equal already and we have him for free.1 month 1 day ago
moethedogAnd in perspective, they gave up 4 years of a young pitcher to get one year of a bat. Or is it two years counting the QA, which Heyward will likely refuse?1 month 1 day ago
moethedogCardinals out as a trade partner for Saunders. They found their RF.1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattOr Dennis Miller live1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattI know who Letterman is. :) I just never watched his show - I liked Leno better.1 month 1 day ago
GrumpyMatt may be too young to know who Letterman is. *laughs*. Just kidding Matt.1 month 1 day ago
jemanjiJust being curmudgeonly there Matt. A David Letterman belly laugh followed by deadpan sour look at the audience? Ah, fuhgeddaboudit :- )1 month 1 day ago
SABR MattBah humbug? Why Bah humbug?1 month 1 day ago
jemanjiAwwwww :: tears up :: Bah humbug.1 month 1 day ago
ThirteenConsider: Erasmo's out of options. Beavan has moved on. Hultzen is still on the DL. After Felix/Kuma/Walker/Paxton/Elias, #6 on the depth chart is Jordan Pries. They need to add a respectable starting pitcher anyways; if they moved Kuma they'd need to add two. Two respectable starting pitchers is the AAV of a Hanley Ramirez, man. I don't like it. Stops you from making moves elsewhere. I'm on team Keep Kuma.1 month 1 day ago
ThirteenAs for these Kuma/Cespy rumors... I think the problem is, the Mariners just don't have the SP depth to deal from. There's a fair deal to be constructed there. Cespedes is worse than Iwakuma, and more expensive than Iwakuma, and less likely to re-sign cheap than Iwakuma, but if the Red Sox added a couple of their better MLB-ready pitchers it could be a fair deal. And Cespedes definitely makes sense on the Mariners; because he hits enough to DH he could be the fourth guy in a four-man OF/DH rotation. His RH power is monstrous enough to conquer the Safe (unlike, say, Hanley's). And Boston desperately wants front-end SP, and has OF to spare. But Seattle can't afford to move Kuma right now.1 month 1 day ago
mojicianHappy birthday.1 month 1 day ago
ThirteenHappy birthday, Doc.1 month 1 day ago
SABR Matthappy birthday, Doc - you irascible old coot!1 month 1 day ago
misterjonezDitto, DaddyO. Always glad to wish a friend happy birthday - even one I've never shared a (physical) room with :-)1 month 1 day ago
DaddyOIf indeedie it be yer birthday, Doc, then I wish ye a hearty and healthy one!1 month 1 day ago
Bat571Maybe Erasmo will rebuild some of HIS value in the Winter Leagues as well - he'd make a reasonable #5 for a lot of teams that don't have a Taijuan Walker or Roenis Elias for that spot. He'd be really nice if there was a three-way out there that gets the big bat by providing another pre-arb arm.1 month 2 days ago
Bat571But with Guaipe, Wood, Colvin, Hunter, Pagan, Brazis, and more coming along for maybe 1-2 spots in the BP even after 2-3 major league guys are traded -- that's a strength the M's can draw from. It's a bit RH, though, which is why Gonzales would be such a nice fit (Since the Ms seem bound to trade Condor, anyway). But when the Rule 5 draft is done, and the prime FAs sign, the BP excess the Ms possess will be very popular. I suspect that's what JackZ is waiting for.1 month 2 days ago
Bat571But Marco Gonzales on the Ms staff makes several guys more available for that big trade for a bat -- this is going to be a multi-stage process, I think. Again, the Dodgers and others need BP help. Furbush, Medina, et al, will get mighty attractive as the free agents come off the board. But I wouldn't give up 'Kuma in anything short of a sequence that also brings a Lester or Lee on board. Even if the M's don't extend him (or maybe especially if they don't), his value measured by his performance v. contract has got to be at the top of all pitchers past the pre-arb years. If the M's are going to try to upgrade and stay frugal, he's essential to keeping the pitching strong.1 month 2 days ago
Bat571If Saunders went to the Cards, I want Marco Gonzales + another prospect back. Gonzales gives the Ms SP depth and a BP LHer. Since the Cards also want some BP reinforcement with a guy that could occasionally close, maybe Saunders + Wilhelmsen gets Gonzalez + Piscotty +? Depends on how the stars align.1 month 2 days ago
moethedogYou're right about the Cards being a natural trade partner for Saunders, bat. They may just decide to go with Grichuk with Piscottyin the wings, but Saunders would interest them. But we're not getting the right bat in return.1 month 2 days ago
GrumpyBTW. Happy birthday, Doc!1 month 2 days ago
Bat571And I wouldn't trade Kuma unless I had Cliff Lee coming from Philly at the same time! Philly wants top prospects for him, and he's owed ~$60M bucks!1 month 2 days ago
Bat571Remember that 'Kuma is not only a top-10 SP, but one with a salary of a decent set-up reliever. That's simply too much to give away for a chance that a 30-year old OF may recover his swing. 'Kuma, with his contract, is SUPER-Premium goods in this market. IF JackZ trades him, it'd better be for a top return.1 month 2 days ago
Bat571If Iwakuma was asked for by the Sawx, I'd ask for Betts, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Craig in return and offer Medina to go along with 'Kuma. If they want a top-10 SP, they're going to have to pay!1 month 2 days ago
Bat571Cespedes doesn't fit the Ms - too much Yuniesky Betancourt vibe for my taste. Talented, yes, but doesn't want to work at improving, and doesn't want to be versatile. No thanks. And Kuma would be worth both Cespedes and Craig in any case - they're both devalued by attitude/performance issues and 'Kuma has been on the fringe of the Cy Young the last two years! Stuff the Sawx, let's get talking to the Cardinals about a nice return for Saunders, and the Dodgers about what they might do for Taylor - Medina - Furbush - Guerrero! I think including Guerrero would be the key - they have a lot of OF now, but there Farm is ~bare. When 2017 comes around and Eithier, Crawford, and Kemp are gone anyway, who do they have? Guerrero has the hype and has shown the flashes of talent to be the cherry in a deal. A Guerrero - Pederson - Puig OF might look pretty good in a couple of years.1 month 2 days ago
moethedogRead my Shout (two below) Matt. How about 'Kuma for Allen Craig? Huh...Huh? I would bite, I believe.1 month 2 days ago
SABR Mattper Dutton/MLBTR - The Mariners have fileded multiple inquiries about Hisashi Iwakuma and Boston was among the interested parties. The Mariners would want an impact hitter in return like Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes for Iwakuma??? I don't know about that one......1 month 2 days ago
Bat571Rick, Nyack is just a few miles N of NYC near the Tappan Zee bridge over the Hudson (NY Thruway). It's a few miles from N NJ, but definitely downstate NY. But given that college education is much more common now than in WW2, I doubt he'd get stuck with Professor. If he had been a lineman, he might be 'Saint' (protect us), but my guess would be 'Irish' or something like 'Crusher'. Cano, by the way, would be 'Conch', after the prized shells - not huge, but a lot in the package.1 month 2 days ago
moethedogNah, Kivlehan would be "Professor!" And 'Kuma for Cespedes would take some consideration and couldn't happen without some additional Cespedes years. In essence, it would be the reverse of the trade that sent Cespedes to Boston. In the end I likely wouldn't do it, unless I was confidnet that Hultzen was on track and I was thinking about moving The Bartender to the rotation. And then I likely wouldn't do it in a market with RH bats available.Interesting, though. It's the kind of "under the radar" move I thought Z would come up with. Actually, the guy to get from Boston is Allen Craig. 3 years at $25M, with a buy out in year 4. Hard to imagine that he is completely broken. You pay for age years 31-33 and count on a bounce back. He was the guy I wanted over the winter. 'Kuma for Craig? Hmmmmmmm......I bite. I'm in. I'm a big 'Kuma fan, but this way we would add a bat for no cost ($), leaving us our $20M (or so) to go get a 2nd RH bat and a n arm. I'm in.1 month 2 days ago
merksSaw this on MLBtraderumors as reported by Nick Cafardo--•The Mariners have fielded inquiries from a few teams on Hisashi Iwakuma and the Red Sox have had at least internal conversations about the 33-year-old right-hander. The Mariners, meanwhile, would want an impact hitter like Yoenis Cespedes in return.1 month 2 days ago
rick82Nice work Bat! I am referring to Kivlehan's hometown, upstate New York (somewhere North of Manhattan) not his college. Wouldn't they just call him "College" if they were referring to his schooling? I'm working off Hollywood films here, not any experience in real life. Marx is cruelly funny. Do we have a Groucho on our team?1 month 2 days ago
Bat571Austin Jackson would be "Action" (hope we do get some) - Alex would be "Ajax". Farquhar's would either be "Lord" (I know, not in WWII era) or unprintable. Furbush likewise. Maurer in the Navy would be "Torpedo" to anyone who knew of J.H. Maurer Sr. or Jr. (sub captains of high repute). Wilhelmsen would keep the "Bartender" - fits him too well.1 month 2 days ago
Bat571Upstate New Jersey? Kivlehan'd be "Irish" in a WWII movie - a broth of a lad he is, now! Otherwise he'd be 'Nyack, Nyack" for his hometown and the Stooges. Sucre would be "Sugar" (which he'd hate - the military can be cruel - I knew a pilot named Marx- was he Groucho or Harpo? No, he was "Skid"). Zunino would be "Nino" - little one. Montero would not like what a squad would come up with for him! Taylor would probably be "Needle" for being skinny and his name, And Lloyd would undoubtedly be "Big Mac" or "Black Mac". Walker ('Sky') and Willie Bloomquist ('Boom,Boom') would keep theirs.1 month 2 days ago
rick82If the Mariner lineup,were a WW2 platoon, the nicknames? Ackley: "Tarheel", Jackson? "Solid"?, Michael, "Nucky", Seager: "Baldy", Miller, "Crazy Legs" will do, Cano, "Bermuda" (hey we're talking WW2 farm boys here), Jones is "Brooklyn", Morrison? "Nutsy"? - this is my idea of a hot stove league :-)1 month 2 days ago
rick82Yet they will be there. Witness the A's. I hope Kivlehan emerges for us. We've taken to calling Jones "Brooklyn" in the Mariners Chat. I want to add "Upstate" to the mix.1 month 2 days ago
SABR MattTrades mid-season are going to get harder and harder to pull off. We need to be as good as we can be before the season begins.1 month 2 days ago
rick82I'm sanguine about our lineup with a true thumper, like the league home run leader doing just nicely thank you, at DH thumping from the right side. Cruz has to know his future going forward is at DH. Perfectly fine with the rest of the lineup we ended the season with, with Saunders at right. Yeah, we're trying to deal him, and if a thumping right fielder comes from it, fine. Whatever we are short on is coming in mid season, or by moving Crazy Legs to the OF. Choi, Peterson, Blash, Kivlehan, someone will emerge from there. DJ right behind them. The rest? Trade bait at mid season. Rotation is awesome. Pen is outstanding. Our WAR is top of the league.1 month 3 days ago
SABR MattCruz hates DHing...but his career DH split is he might have to suck it up. I'd rather him be signed to DH and go after something more multifunctional as the second add..1 month 3 days ago
misterjonezI agree in general, Matt, that Cruz as the A-1 add leaves a bit to be desired. But he would shore up the team's RH-ness issues, as well as provide a rock-solid option at DH and COF.1 month 3 days ago
SABR MattCruz isn't enough...he doesn't get on base, which is still the Mariners' biggest problem.1 month 3 days ago
rick82Nelson Cruz would be fine. A little late, but fine.1 month 3 days ago
SABR Mattbroken toe is not a big deal...that heals very quickly1 month 3 days ago
merksApparently Cano will only be out for 3 to 4 weeks.1 month 3 days ago
merksWell I'll be a son of a gun. Cano breaks toe in Japan after being hit by a pitch.1 month 3 days ago
misterjonez$325mil total, at $8mil/Win, would mean that he's got to be worth ~40 WAR over the course of the contract to be worth it. I"m sorry...I have a hard time, barring catastrophic, career-ending injury, seeing Stanton come up drastically short of that mark. He's been worth 17.2 Fangraphs WAR over the last four years, he's 25 (with 154 career HR), and his plate skills are improving each season since '12 (K's down, BB's up). He's the premier right-handed bat, and he's worth the money. Imagine what A-Rod would get if you time-warped his 2000 self (who had 26.4 WAR over the previous four years) forward into modern FA? The number would be closer to $400mil than $300mil. Don't be scared of the numbers; it's all relative. I would GLADLY pay Giancarlo Stanton $300mil over the next 10-12 years to play for the M's. The no-trade clause isn't a problem whatsoever; if he was unhappy he'd ask out. The opt-out, however, is a pretty big sticking point for me.1 month 3 days ago
PlawsableThat&#039;s probably about when he gets traded to the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers anyway, isn&#039;t it?1 month 3 days ago
GLSWith Stanton, part of the calculation has to be that what you're competing with is the Yankees suddenly less restrictive payroll situation in 2017. 2017 is Stanton's first year eligible for free agency, and if you look at Cots, the Yankees future payroll obligation drops from $169.768 million in 2016 to $98.643 million in 2017. That's a big drop and there's no doubt in my mind that the Yankees, the Marlins, and Stanton's agent are well aware of it.1 month 3 days ago
SABR MattMariners reported in on Nelson Cruz again.1 month 4 days ago
SABR Mattummm...even if you deflate that number going forward its NPV is like 252 million. You would pay Stanton 34 million per year, Doc (252 / 7) ? That pays for ten years, not 7 I don't think. And I don't spend 10 years on a guy like Stanton that is likely to implode at age 34-35.1 month 4 days ago
jemanjiOn Stanton's $325M: if you allow for inflation, that pays for what? 7-8 years? Just saying. A lot of times the last years are theoretically free.1 month 4 days ago
jemanjiI'm allowed to hint that 'something's in the works' as to the platform … working it as we speak … we've come a long way since Wolfy did the DOV site in his spare time here and there :- )1 month 4 days ago
moethedogNo way I do that. No way.1 month 4 days ago
mojicianStanton is kind of an injury risk. He, like other big guys, would probably benefit from DH time later in his career to rest his tendons and hammies. A full no trade clause seems like a bad idea.1 month 4 days ago
SABR MattI would not want Stanton on my club at that price. He's good, but he's not THAT good.1 month 4 days ago
misterjonezI was actually expecting the $300mil mark, but including an opt out clause seems insane. If you make that large of a commitment to a player then you need to have absolute control over said player...will be interesting to see how the contract is structured.1 month 4 days ago
Bat571Think about this lineup (with Bill James Handbook projections) --- Jackson CF .736; HanRam SS/DH .843; Cano 2B .865; Kemp RF/DH .849; Seager 3B .779; Morrison 1B .772; Zunino C .714; Ackley .717; Miller SS/Romero RF .755/.758; with Romero, Bloomquist, Sucre, and Taylor on the bench. HanRam OPSed .897 batting 2nd last year -- I would expect he would like getting the extra ABs with Cano and Kemp instead of Puig and Kemp behind him. Would love seeing that lineup day in, day out. Then replace Sucre an Bloomquist with Hicks and Kivlehan by mid-year, and RH OBP/power would not be an issue!1 month 4 days ago
SABR MattStanton close to a THIRTEEN YEAR, 325 MILLION contract. There are no words...1 month 4 days ago
jemanjiNoted GLS - sorry -1 month 4 days ago
jemanjiAdmins are on the load times. Sorry amigos.1 month 4 days ago
Gordon GrossKemp and Hanley both hit well in Dodger Stadium - that's why I'd take either for Safeco, even considering injury potential and price tag. If we can talk the suits into the budget for another star, then one of those two will work for me, because I know the Stadium should not kill them. Hanley: .865 OPS in the Dodgers' home park. Kemp: .840. Beltre: .740. We didn't heed the warning on Beltre thanks to his career year, but neither Kemp nor Ramirez seem to suffer from the same problem with the tougher park. Go get me one, Jack.1 month 4 days ago
Tacoma RainI really like Moncada too, but I just do not see Mariner Management breaking the MLB guidelines the way the Yankees, Rangers, Cubs, Red Sox and etc... have in recent years in the international signings.1 month 4 days ago
GLSThis Moncada prospect is kind of interesting.1 month 4 days ago
GLSI got blocked by the spam filter yesterday.1 month 4 days ago
SABR MattHey Doc...Klat is having all kinds of problems lately...getting a lot of service temporarily unavailable errors and loooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnng load times.1 month 5 days ago
misterjonezIt was a pretty easy decision to go with Felix. But I think we're seeing the new wave of, I don't want to say 'smug,' thinking where people want to be on the cutting edge and leave everyone else in the pseudo-intellectual dust. Felix was the big-gamer, he set a couple records, and continued his run of dominance. It's almost like the writers went so far away from the historical behaviors in an effort to prove themselves as 'forward thinkers' that they missed the forest for the trees. Still, it's not egregious in any way, but precedent says nine times out of ten you go with Felix in a coin flip situation since he's already The Man.1 month 5 days ago
MtGrizzly@BrockESPN: The baseball writers consider this?Kluber 5.40 ERA in 6 starts vs top 3 scoring teams in AL (DET, LAA, OAK). Felix 1.84 ERA in 11 starts...1 month 5 days ago
SABR MattSounds like Felix envy1 month 6 days ago
MtGrizzly@GeoffBakerTIMES: Taking away the two Seattle-based votes for Hernandez, he got only 3 of 8 possible 1st place ballots cast by other AL West writers #CyYoung1 month 6 days ago
SABR MattI'm sorry...Kluber had a great year and there are some sabermetricians who'll claim he was better...but no. Just no. No one but Kershaw was better than King Felix in 2014. Bad call, voters. Bad call.1 month 6 days ago
Gordon GrossWow. Really did not expect Felix to lose to Kluber. Hard to believe Felix still "just" has one Cy Young on his mantle. Maybe he can add a second next year, alongside a pennant.1 month 6 days ago
mojicianCorey Kluber? Not cool.1 month 6 days ago
IcebreakerXFelix denied 2nd Cy.1 month 6 days ago
SABR Matt>-( day has been ruined.1 month 6 days ago
mojicianYes sirree. The Tigers might come to a bad end. But they seem to be having a darn good middle. You look at V-Mart and say we could have used some of that .300 .400 .500 old school batting shtick.1 month 6 days ago
Gordon GrossV-Mart at 4/70 is a nice gig. Hanley is gonna be about double that, wouldn't ya think? Kid can really hit, though...1 month 6 days ago
benihana@ChrisCotillo - In 2018, the #Tigers will pay 35-year old Verlander, 35-year old Cabrera and 39-year old V-Mart a combined $75 million. - Unlike the Tigers, Angels, Dodgers, Yankees and others, the M's at least have their big money deals in the players you want around. I would not have been unhappy with 4/75 for V-Mart, but it is a ton of money for an old DH. I'd bet the under strongly on 12 WAR for the life of the contract.1 month 6 days ago
mojicianThought No. 1: Horse manure! Thought No. 2: Boras clients at least have the courtesy to use Seattle as a shill bid to get top dollar from the real suitors. We not only lose out on Martinez, the Tigers don't have to make an outlandish overpay. Thought No. 3: Its a good thing Zduriencik was sweet talking Hanley as the Mariners first choice. Nobody likes to feel as if they are the backup plan.1 month 6 days ago
benihanaI had hoped the M's would have exceeded the 4/70 price tag for Victor Martinez. Maybe they did, but he wanted to stay where comfortable. Who knows. Seemed like the perfect fit for the M's - but think the M's have many other fine choices as well. And that's a whale of a lot of money to pay a DH for his 36-39 year old seasons coming off of a career year.1 month 6 days ago
SABR Mattwell...we have essentially no good choice now but ot go after Hanley Ramirez as a DH.1 month 6 days ago
SABR Matt[expletive deleted\1 month 6 days ago
merksVivtor Mattinez close to resigning with detroit. Bummer that.1 month 6 days ago
IcebreakerXSide note, both top Japanese pitchers (Kaneko & Maeda) have height/build issues that will drive down their price.1 month 6 days ago
IcebreakerXSABRMatt: I think ESPN or SBNation had a preview of Asian League posting candidates and it looked like both of the top Korean pitchers had huge question marks, mostly having to do with health.1 month 6 days ago
IcebreakerXMLBers just got pole-axed by an NPB squad led by Maeda. Didn't watch the whole game, but I will be watching live on Friday with Kuma starting...!1 month 6 days ago
SABR MattHighly amused that Cano went to play for team America in the Japan all-star series and promptly went 2-3 with two classic Cano singles. :) Wherever he goes, he does the thing he does.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattper MLBTR: The Mets are unenthusiastic about the available free agent shortstops, and plan to go the trade route to fill the position. The Diamondbacks, Mariners, White Sox, and Cubs are viewed as viable trade partners. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News says “it has been difficult, if not impossible” for the Mets and Cubs to agree on the value of Starlin Castro. Meanwhile, Martino says Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox only emerged as a possibility within the past week. Martino’s early read has the White Sox seeking the Mets’ top young starters and the Mets pitching their veterans. Hey Mets - GIVE US SYNDERGAARD1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattPadres win the bidding for only 2 million? Interesting.1 month 1 week ago
bpjHere&#039;s how my offseason would go if everybody played along: Sign Hanley Ramirez. Use Brad Miller, Chris Taylor, Dustin Ackley and other areas of depth to acquire Justin Upton and Carlos Quentin. 1) Jackson 2) Ramirez 3) Cano 4) Upton 5) Seager 6) Quentin 7) Morrison 8) Zunino 9) Saunders1 month 1 week ago
bpjHere&amp;#039;s how my offseason would go: Sign Hanley Ramirez. Use Brad Miller and Chris Taylor plus Ackley and other areas of depth and acquire Justin Upton and Carlos Quentin. 1) Jackson 2) Ramirez 3) Cano 4) Upton 5) Seager 6) Quentin 7) Morrison 8)Zunino 9) Saunders1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattThe Mets might contend in 2015...and if they do...good for them. I still think Cuddyer wasn't the way to go about that.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianOther Mets stuff: Cuddyer is apparently a childhood friend of David Wright, Matt Harvey is expected to return in 2015, and Mets starting pitcher David Degrom just won rookie of the year. The 2015 rotation is Harvey, Degrom, Wheeler, Niese and Colon, with Montero and Syndegaard as numbers 6 and 7. Mets fans believe that Juan Lagares will be able to cover the entire outfield by himself, so any defense issues with Cuddyer and Granderson are non-factors.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattMets fans don't understand the value of draft picks, evidently.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianWent over to Metsmerized blog. They all seem to like the Cuddyer signing. The group thinking is thus: Cuddyer hits, and he doesn't cost the beloved Syndegaard, Niese, Montero, Harvey or whoever. The Mets fans loooooove their pitching prospects.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianWhat's up? is Tulo washed up?1 month 1 week ago
diderotI loved the idea of Cuddyer as our DH...sitting in bubble wrap on the bench betweeen ABs...for maybe 2/$16. But he could have got that for ONE year had he stayed in Denver. Is this the first sign of another ridiculously inflationary off season?1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI'm going to laugh until I pass out if the Mets trade one of their big time SP prospects and other stuff to the Rockies for Tulo.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI don't thikn the Mariners are after Ramirez to be a DH...the talk was about him as a SS1 month 1 week ago
SABR Matt2 years and 21 million for Cuddyer...that is HORRIBAD1 month 1 week ago
MtGrizzlyTwo years, $25 million and the #15 pick in the draft - pretty steep price.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianRamirez hits line drives to all fields, and he has 117 mph hit it out of Coors on a rainy day power. He has biceps that look like balloons. He also has squeaky clean all about family, charity and teammates makeup, and he is probably much more signable as he knows he needs to DH, and whatever he says publicly, he probably wants out of Dodger Dysfunctionville.1 month 1 week ago
mojicianRamirez doesn't just strain his hammies. He strains everything, including his elbow, and his shoulders. Most of his sprains have happened when he was diving for balls. Josh Hamilton anyone? I think that he might hit much better if he were DHing and wasn't always straining his stuff.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattAt this point, I'm wondering if the Mets are TRYING to be terrible.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattPrediction: Cuddyer will not hit .750 in either year of this deal. Second Prediction: The prospect the Rockies get will be worth more in franchise dollars than Cuddyer earns.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattWow...this Cuddyer deal is really...really...dumb. I'm sorry...but to give up a draft pick for a guy who will destroy your OF and be a HORRENDOUS fit for your cavernous ballpark...this is just as bad as the Bay deal. Wow.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattwow...1 month 1 week ago
merksCuddyer signs with with Mets, two years.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Hicks is getting to work on his pitch recognition - 2 PAs, 2 walks.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571And given how Landazuri is pitching in the AFL (pitching at this moment), I don't think he's quite ready, either. But, boy, do we have some dandy bullpen spaghetti coming along! Guaipe, Hunter, and Pagan are doing well so far in the winter leagues, and aside from a bad outing, Brazis isn't doing that bad in the AFL.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571The Korean Yang, or getting Marco Gonzales for Saunders would provide a nice piece in Tacoma to help in innings management, which is the real need in the pitching area. I don't think Erasmo is going to get fixed with the Ms, and Beaven is gone, so somebody close to MLB ready is of interest.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Conspiracy theory: The Ms leaked their interest in Hanley so he would reject the Dodgers QO, so that they would need a SS (at least for 2015), making Kemp a bit more available. Taylor, Medina, and Guerrero for the Bison @$14M/yr to the Ms.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattmy big problem with Ramirez is the injuries - he's had a bunch of leg issues and missed playing time...the thing that very commonly happens to middle infielders who are about to go boom.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Back to reality, though, signing VMart just works in so many ways, that Rios and Saunders or Rios and JJ could be enough to lengthen the lineup and fill the holes, assuming Austin Jackson gets his swing back together and JJ (and Zunino) are spending the off-season on pitch recognition. More is better, but I don't think adding Ramirez and trading Miller sums to *more*.1 month 1 week ago
tjmI wouldn't mind Hiroki Kuroda or the Korean lefty Hyeon-jong Yang, either.1 month 1 week ago
tjmMe too. No Hanley. He's barely adequate at SS now, and getting worse by the week. But I'd love Gattis and Kemp. Gattis could also get AB's at 1B.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571My Christmas would be made if I hear that VMart signs, Zach Duke is signed, John Lester signs, and a trade gets us Kemp or Van Slyke without costing Seager, Miller, Zunino, Paxton, or Walker. If the trade doesn't get done, then I would be OK with Rios in RF, but that makes more sense if the Condor stays. And if VMart can't be convinced to come to Seattle, either Gattis or Butler would likely give the Ms more than they got from DH this year. But, at this point, trading one of the core guys to improve at DH or RF, or even for a RH bat, doesn't make sense. Even trading Elias, unless Lester was signed, doesn't make much sense.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571I don't get the M's interest in Hanley Ramirez. I hope it's a cover for things going on behind the scenes, or a way of saying the M's *could* sign two FAs with QOs, rather than a true desire to get that much older and worse in the field at a key position. Now, if the M's could sign both VMart and swing a trade for Kemp, both of whom fit positions the M's are thin at, that's another story. My fear is that there's a possibility that HanRam might be signed so the Ms could trade Seager for Kemp to save a lot of money. That would make me very mad. If the Ms can't get VMart, I'd much rather get Gattis and Rios and stay targeted on filling the existing holes at this point.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Gattis is horrible in COF, but I agree, Matt, as a primary DH and a backup C Gattis would be my 2nd choice, also. Meanwhile, John Hicks is batting cleanup for Surprise today (Patrick Kivlehan is not in the lineup). Hicks is more like Jaso (OBP>SLG), but he'd be a nice BU C if he can make the adjustments and keep hitting a mid-.700 OPS.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattThe Braves are shopping Evan Gattis. if the Mariners whiff on Vic Martinez...he would be my preferred second target. He can back up Zunino behind the plate, play some occasional COF and DH the rest of the time.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattagreed on dumping the draft all at once instead of spreading out the pain, padna...def. would rather pay a 2nd round pick now than a 1st rounder later.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattJake Odorizzi? Archer?1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattget both and I'm pretty can trade Miller and keep Taylor as supersub (Hanley has been hurt a lot the last couple of years and is SS must be kept as insurance)...what could we get for Brad Miller and Michael Saunders from the Rays, e.g.?1 month 1 week ago
SilentpadnaAnother thought about getting both (or more than one QO guy) this year is that it makes sense to get 2-3 guys now and give up 3 picks now rather than 3 #1's 3 years running. And who knows who's out there next year?1 month 1 week ago
SilentpadnaI'm not sure of the fit either and I would definitely prefer V-Mart if they can sign one guy. The link mentioned that both is not out of the realm (and in reality it's not), so I find myself noodling' over what the possibilities may be...and the third and fourth order moves might be...1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattYou can bet that Miller would draw a lot of interest in trade though...if you wanted to flip him for something really attractive after signing Hanley, keep Taylor as a supersub and future SS when Ramirez has to move over, and go with that...I guess that could work...1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI just don't think Hanley is a very good fit...he's not going to be able to play SS for much longer at even passable levels and is too slow to be an outfielder in Safeco...3B is blocked by Seager, 2B by Cano...I suppose he could eventually move to 1B, but that's not really optimal. And to add him now, you're giving up on Brad Miller and Chris Taylor...not sure what the Mariners are thinking on that one. Gt me Vic Martinez...if you want both Ramirez and Martinez, I will at least understand that you were trying to completely fix our line-up.1 month 1 week ago
SilentpadnaPotential benefit of the Cano "foolish investment": when the M's look at high-profile guys, they're not considered pretenders...1 month 1 week ago
SilentpadnaAggressive? I like it. Dreaming of the possibilities.... month 1 week ago
bsrA couple glorious clips to watch on repeat and savor the swath of destruction Beast Mode cut through the Giants today: this ( led to this ( month 1 week ago
bsrI haven't followed the situation closely, but it seems like everyone here is faulting the M's for Saunders being on the it also possible that Z has valid reasons for wanting to cut him loose? Perhaps he really does have bad work/attitude habits that have contributed to his inability to stay reliably on the field? Again, I'm not well educated on the details, just wondering what y'all are thinking here.1 month 1 week ago
IcebreakerXThe Saunders Debacle is the type of stuff that makes me lose faith in the M's. Especially when you consider the Morse Medical Mess-up from last year.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Gonzales looks like a perfect candidate for swing man (exactly how the Cardinals are using him) to manage innings without much performance drop-off. Effective against RH and LH hitters out of the 'pen. A Gonzaga kid, too! I'd be sad to lose Condor, but maybe there could be a bright side.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Saunders and Brandon Maurer appear to be the last pre-JackZ draft picks left. Wonder if they'll trade both? If it got back Piscotty and Gonzales both, it wouldn't upset me.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Both the Cardinals and Tigers are looking for RF, so Condor could find a nice landing spot. Stephen Piscotty and Marco Gonzales would interest me from the Cards (they need some BP help also - Medina?). And from the Tigers, James McCann would be a nice partner for Zunino if Hicks isn't quite ready (although it looks like he is), and they have a LH reliever Joe Mantiply that has very good results against RH, too, that is currently pitching in the AFL. The Cards would be an especially nice place for Condor, though.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattYeah...saw that yesterday. Made me sad.1 month 1 week ago
MtGrizzlyYep. Churchill has been saying that Saunders will not be in a Seattle uniform in 2015 and it makes sense to me. This is still the org that traded Jeff Nelson because he griped about management at an off season charity golf game. Soriano and Guilen were traded because the suits didn't like the crowd they hung out with off the field. Other than Armstrong, all those suits are still here.1 month 1 week ago
DaddyOHaven't seen anyone here mention this, but saw MLBTR item yesterday that M's were shopping Michael Saunders in the wake of the end-of-season spat about Zduriencik's comments regarding Saunders' need to upgrade his offseason workout regimen. Not a surprise, but if true this will be disappointing to many here. It will disappoint me unless the M's get someone even better.1 month 1 week ago
rick82If we can get just an average season from Ajax, it is party time indeed. Man, just give me Mike Morse at DH. We ain't askin for much.1 month 1 week ago
SABR Mattas my gappiness study showed...the 2014 Mariners had two severe gaps and, if both get fixed, they should be a WS-caliber team. Get us Victor Martinez and some OF depth. Get a decent year from AJax and we party.1 month 1 week ago
rick82Holy Mackerel. Sully picks up on the data Doc reported to us earlier: The Mariners are currently leading leading the AL in projected WAR! We are indeed the AL frontrunners! Pinch me. month 1 week ago
moethedogWell heck Moj, can't you just fill in for me? :) For the next 5 days, Big Bulls = The Orcs: Easy to root against!1 month 1 week ago
mojicianSorry Moe, your going to have to cancel. Per site policy, all scheduled personal leave has to be calendared a month in advance.1 month 1 week ago
moethedogI'm checking out for a few days guys: I'll be chasing elk around and off mountain tops in eastern Oregon. I'm sure I won't be missed here......but root for me and not the bulls, please! A Seager extension and a RHB FA signing would be nice to return to.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattNot surprising. One of the things that Zduriencik does a lot better than Bavasi is his "hustle work" on stoploss. If he goes and gets a guy that looks superfluous, it probably means he expects to need that guy.1 month 1 week ago
Tacoma Rainnow we know why Rivero... Gabe Noriega was one of the 13 players in the minors that became a free agent today because they were not added to the 40 man roster and their playing time under Mariners control has expired. Per Dutton, some of the other 13 new free agents are Beavan, Nick Hill, and Moises Hernandez1 month 1 week ago
moethedogIf the Dodgers want in on Tulo, then they likely want out (for salary reasons) on Kemp. Make 'em the offer early and expect a subsidy.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Adding to GLS - and the Rockies know their best chance of getting out from under that Tulo contract, since they have a rebuild ahead, is to make him avaialble just as the Yankees and Dodgers have openings at SS. It will get rich fast if those two get into the bidding. But the Yankees, thanks to the AFL, suddenly have some good-looking prospects that look very close to MLB-ready, but at positions (1B and OF) where they already have high-priced incumbents. Meanwhile, the need at SS stares them in the face.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Re: Yang. I agree, TR, that there's a good fit there. But my guess is that Philly is now going to rebuild Gillick-style, and low-cost, high upside moves are his M.O. If Yang is 1-2 years away, he's a perfect move for them, just like Tomas. Any decent foreign player who doesn't fit the IFA signing system is going to have a red rush from now on. And Hamels is definitely available for a passel of grade-A prospects, preferably pitchers - the Cubs, Cards, and Marlins will be in line.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattAgreed GLS...I don't build around a guy who plays 120 games a year. Especially not when I have a SS tandem that's good for half of his WAR and costs me nothing and two gigantic Godzilla sized holes on my line-up elsewhere.1 month 1 week ago
GLSI'm out on Tulo, which is the opposite of my opinion from a year ago. Despite what Rosenthal is saying about the Rockies being firm on getting "fair value" for Tulo, my take on the situation is that they know darn well they have an injury prone player with a huge contract on a team that probably isn't going anywhere.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Matt can speak better to that than I, but the NY papers would pillage Steinbrenner if Tulo goes elsewhere with the Yankees need for a SS.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Re: Tulo. I just can't imagine the M's board approving both Tulo and VMart - and VMart fills a real dark hole as well as it can be filled. The only other super-premium signing beyond VMart that I can envision is Lester - but he would be marketed like Felix & King's Court, so would put butts in seats for the pitching match-ups. And he's local. But I'm still convinced ~$120M is going to be the limit under any other circumstances. But as I said below, I see Cashman blowing everyone out of the water to get Tulo anyway. He's just a Yankee kind of guy.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattHe's an upgrade...but not at an area where we have a large gap in the line-up. If we spend all of our cookies on Tulo, we'll have no DH and a crummy OF. Is that what you want?1 month 1 week ago
merksHe would balance out the lineup. The M's would be remarkably strong up the middle for the next 5 years. Having arguably the best SS and 2nd basemen in the game both who can hit for power and field their position well is a remarkably large advantage to have. I really like Miller and will be happy to have him a super sub who can play outfield, both middle infield positions, dh and probably both corner infield positions with enough time their. He'd be able to get his 400 to 500 AB's. I'd much rather have Tulo than Vmart and I really want Vmart. Tulo is 30 so should be good for the remainder of the contract (again assuming he is healthy). We'd have to give up a lot I'm sure so that would factor into it but as a player he is perfect in my eyes. Huge upgrade over what we had last year and my guess is next year as well.1 month 1 week ago
Tacoma RainBat... I agree with you on the Korean pitcher Yang. He would have to start in Tacoma, where hopefully he can learn with Elias on fine tuning the off speed pitches. Plus Yang could be added to the I-5 5th spot rotation... or worst case Yang could eventually become the lefty flame thrower out of the pen sometime in the future.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattWe don't even need Tulo. WHy would he be the perfect add? ****confused****1 month 1 week ago
moethedogColorado guys scare me to some degree....even Tulo: OK, his road career #'s are .274-.359-.469, which is still impressive. But he's a $114M guy over 6 years with a $4M buyout the next, if you don't want him. If we sign Tulo, he's all we get. Cargo is a ..258-.314-.437 guy on the road......and you spend $53M over 3 seasons on him. No thanks. Even with Tulo, he costs you an arm and a leg in trade.It starts with Miller or Taylor, Miller most likely, as his pop = 20+ homers in Coors. After that, you give up a sweet prospect or two or three, see below. He gets steep guys.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Severino, Clarkin, Judge, and Bird for Tulo. That would be Deej, Guerrero, Diaz, and Sanchez for the Ms, except Bird and Judge are making headlines in the AFL, which Deej is not.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Watch the Yankees offer Bird and Judge (both doing well in AFL) and some arms for Tulo. If the Rox even hint they're interested, Cashman will be at their dining table offering the best from his cellar.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Houston needs bullpen help and help at 3B - wonder if Medina and Romero might start a conversation, which a prospect might help along (also a little weak at SS - Marte?). I wouldn't want to give up Kivlehan or Deej, but there's a lot of depth behind them that might be of interest to Houston. I suspect Castro would probably cost Taylor and Medina - even off a down year and increasing arb pay, though.1 month 1 week ago
merksApparently Tulo and Cargo are somewhat available per MLB TradeRumors. Tulo is the perfect get in my mind as long as he is healthy.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571Astros just traded with the Angels for Hank Conger, making it possible they will shop Jason Castro. Castro had a down year, but is a good pitch-framer and game caller who is LH. Maybe a job-share with Zunino gets Mike more time to work on his hitting. Could be a nice move, since although Castro's splits against LH pitching are Sucre-like, he's hit RH quite well.1 month 1 week ago
Bat571If Yang is willing to go to AAA to prove himself, it might be a nice "filler" pickup who might be ready just as Iwakuma's contract is done. So few Korean League players have come over it's hard to assess where he fits. But I suspect the Mets or Phillies will take the chance before the Ms will.1 month 1 week ago
Tacoma RainAnyone have any interest in the newest Korean pitcher who is going to get posted. Hyeon-jong Yang is a left handed starting pitcher, 26 years old, throws normally in the 90-93 range but has touched 95, also has an average slider and is still developing a change and/or curve. At least he won't cost a draft choice.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattI'd just like to say a personal EAT ME to Mike Scoscia. You don't belong in the top three for Manager of the Year. It's a lot easier to "manage well" when your team is stacked. *THUMBS DOWN* McClendon or Yost deserve the honor. The other two can take a hike.1 month 1 week ago
SABR MattAgreed that Seager's contract will stair-step..I just think he'll out-earn what he would get in arb this year. And congrats to Seager for winning the GG...1 month 1 week ago
Bat571And even if Seager *might* get more in arbitration, the whole idea Hart used to start these kind of early contracts was that he's guaranteed the total and doesn't have to go year-to-year thinking about it. Boras clients rarely do these, but I'll bet a careful comparison of the earnings of his clients v. those of Close, Octagon, etc. shows the early lockups are plenty fair.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571It's more than Longoria got (even corrected for inflation) - thru the same period - he's comparable, even if Longoria's contract was *much* longer. I suspect 5-6 years with an AAV of $10-11M is close to right, and the stair-steps look about right to put his FA years at the right level - comparable to what Beltre got at the same career point.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainSeager probably gets more than that Bat since Seager is now a Gold Glove winner.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571I suspect Seager's extension, when it gets done, will be one of the stair-step type - maybe $5M-$8M-$11M-$14M -> the kind of stairsteps to cover his arb years and first 2-3 FA years without cramping the budget near term. 5/$52M (as above) sounds about right to me.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattSeager will get more than his arb because they'll extend him.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571From an $85M base (about what's committed right now) there's ~$22M available before we hit the $107M from last year. With increased attendance, it would seem to me that somewhere in the +$35M area is where Mather is suggesting he would be ~comfortable (i.e. $120M total payroll). That could get us VMart, Rios, Miller or Duke, a stop-loss pitcher like Brett Anderson, and maybe have some for Seager and Iwakuma. Beyond that, I think the Ms *could* afford it, depending on how the Root purchase is structured. But whether they will?....1 month 2 weeks ago
diderotIf MLB Trade Rumors arb numbers prove correct...and so does my simple season we will pay the combination of Ackley, Jackson, Saunders, Seager, Miller, Taylor, Morrison and Zunino less COMBINED than what we&#039;ll pay Cano. No other point than on that basis, seems like we&#039;d have enough to interest VMart.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattAgreed with that, Bat5711 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571On Rivero: My thought is that right before the 40-man rosters have to be submitted, when everybody around the league is pretty set, the Ms will put him on waivers to put him in Tacoma. If he then is lost to Rule 5 or waivers, no biggie. But if they can keep him, he becomes the IF equivalent of Endy Chavez - the replacement level guaranteed stop-loss if WillieB isn't ready, or something ill happens to an IFer. That makes a lot of sense.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571I still think that Kivlehan and Hicks both get 200+ PAs in Tacoma before the call comes. I also think the Ms will want Kivlehan comfortable in the OF before he gets the call, which means probably ~40 more games out there. But it's looking to me like both will make it by July and become the heart of the bench unless WillieB and Sucre get off to *great* starts. Montero and Choi may in fact get looks first, especially if the Ms can't reel in VMart. If VMart signs, both are bait. As to Morban, he needs a full and complete year at Tacoma to prove himself - and he's LH, which is not high on the Ms list of needs right now. He's looking more like bait, too. Ackley better get off to a good start, though, or the pairing of Kivlehan and Morban or Jones might start looking pretty nice.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattI wouldn't mind peaking at Choi1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainMariner history suggests that Montero, Morban, and Choi get a look at before Kivlehan... not that I agree with that thought process1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR Mattour next Romero experiment...only this time with some batting eye1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogRight on, Matt. He plays in Seattle this year.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattBecoming quite a Kivlefan ver here.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainI would bet that Deej starts in AA versus Tacoma, because of his recent struggles and having only 58 games in AA. Kivlehan has had more success at AA plus he played roughly 100 games in AA... add on his success in AZ, Kivlehan and probably Paolini start in Tacoma in April.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571Hicks had a nice day in the AFL - single, double, HR, and SB. In 74 ABs, Patrick Kivlehan has 3 2B, 4 HR. and 16 RBI. In 38 ABs, Hicks has 4 2B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, and 2 SBs. I'd say they're both doing pretty well at finishing school! Deej isn't doing that well, but reports are he looks tired - it's been a long rehab and season for him. Tacoma is going to have some firepower next spring.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogEeeeee, good point Tac. I missed that one. My bad, I should have caught it, being the Kelly fan that I am.1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma RainUnfortunately the pick up of Rivero probably means that Kelly is not getting onto the 40 man... and since the only mid infielders for Tacoma are Marte, Noreiga and Kelly... I think there is where the hedge is.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571Something has gone wrong with him since 2012 - maybe he needs a change of scenery and new voices in his head. Could he have been involved in ChickenGate?1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571If nothing else, he'd be an alternative to Quintero at Tacoma.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571Looks like the RedSox are about to dump Ryan Lavarnway after he was the MVP of the Int'l League playoffs. Wonder if he'd be worth a minors deal with invite if he clears waivers and is released?1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogA neat pickup. Good go m's. Weird move by BoSox.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571Picking up Rivero is an intriguing move. Does this mean WillieB might not be healed up? Or that Taylor (or Miller?) might be used to get a RH bat? Or is it just insurance? He's hitting pretty well at Lara, though. Looks to me like Logan Bawcom's hold on a 40-man spot is getting weak.1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianHeh. Thanks to Dr. D. and Matt for answering random baseball questions. Learning something new every day at SSI.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogWalk on the wild side, Z: Kevin Youkilis says he is retiring. For a million or two clams, plus bonuses, I bet you could get him to come to camp. Even in '13 he still wacked lefties. Low cost/risk with some upside.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571I'm willing to hope that Austin Jackson rebounds and/or JJs pitch recognition improves. So it looks to me that whole years of 2nd-half LoMo and Ackley and some better backup for Zunino might put us competitive EXCEPT for DH. If Rios/SVS would allow Saunders to play CF at times as well, it might give Austin an occasional breather to work out swing kinks. Then, if by mid-year, WillieB is either OPSing .720 or Kivlehan gets a chance, and if the right DH is signed, the lineup could look pretty good in 8 spots almost every day. Let Hicks come up to back up Zunino, and, assuming Zunino plays better with some rest, and that Hicks can hold his own at Taylor's general level of hitting and keeps up his C defensive prowess, the lineup could gel at the championship level.1 month 2 weeks ago
MtGrizzlyThe economics in baseball are going to be nuts this off season.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571Time to bet that Rios' 1H2014 is the real Alex? I'd say he just went to the front of the RF class if the Ms are still serious about VMart -- I can see one major trade or signing of a QO FA, but not two. But the Alex before the ASB would be just fine to lengthen the LU at 6-7 alternating with Saunders/Ackley 3-to-make-2 (with Saunders moving LF-RF and Ackley and Rios playing LF/RF exclusively). If we could get Van Slyke, it opens 1B up to the rotation as well, which I'd still prefer, but it won't be with Cuddyer, certainly.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattI'd be willing to gamble on Morales as a bench bat for super cheap...but otherwise...yes1 month 2 weeks ago
GLSIs everyone here universally convinced that that the Mariners should be done with Kendrys?1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR on Cuddyer then.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattBefore the trades: 1B: 20.5 2B: 30 SS 3.5 CF: 13 SP5 +15 (prorated to an entire season) --------- After the trades: no gap at the bottom of the rotation but LF +28 (prorated based on Gomes'/Fuld's performance for the entire season). The deals made them less playoff worthy...not more so.1 month 2 weeks ago
GLSI say no on Cuddyer as well with the QO. But I agree with MLBTR that he could very well accept it and simply renew with the Rockies. At his age and coming off an injury or two, he probably won't do better than that.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattI can try to set up an excel macro to plug in numbers and take requests. :) The Orcs royally screwed up though, with that Cespedes deal. They replaced a non-gap (Chavez) with a huge gaping gap (Gomes/Fuld). But here ya go: we'll assume that Moss was going to slump and his gap score should count equally on both sides (can't assume Cespedes leaving caused a streaky guy like Moss to slump).1 month 2 weeks ago
benihanaQualifying Offer to Cuddyer takes him off my wish list for the M's. Be shocked if he didn't accept it. Don't see him worth $15m/per anywhere else.1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianWe need a side bar computer program to automatically compute new SSI stats so that we don't have to start an Excel spreadsheet to investigate the implications of it. I want to know the Orc Gap Index splits for the pre and post Cespedes era, but the process described in the post looks like too much work.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR Mattwe really need t get us a DH that is comfortable DHing and find some offense in the outfield if we want to avoid being too "gappy" for the post-season.1 month 2 weeks ago
tjmFYI - Dodgers hyping Seager to stay at short, according to this LAT piece. Would make them less likely to trade for one of our surplus, I'd think month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattCuddyer wouldn't be a BAD get as long as the deal isn't for more than 10 mil per year and two years...he can start for me, even if he only hits .750...that's pretty good in Safeco. But I'm much more interested in him if the Mariners promise he's not their BIGGEST add. Which I doubt. I want to get Vic Martinez or go for the gamble move and get Tomas...I don't want Cuddyer to be the best we can do.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattMorse just proved he can hit in a big park...but he would be a pure DH...I'd rather get a guy who can play the outfield AND a pure DH...and I'd rather my pure DH be comfortable DHing...which Morse is not.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogAs an affordable (if he is) 1-2 year guy, I wouldn't whine much about signing Cuddyer, for this reason: He gives you a bunch of platoon-like flexibility. He's a career .380 OBP/.500 Slg. guy vs. LHP and he still can go a glove it a bit in RF. He would be a great late-inning PH bat for our LH COF's...if we don't go get another one. (BTW, he 's a career .372-.460-.651 PH'er). As a piece who could play RF/1B and DH....getting 80-100 starts, I would have no huge problem, especially on a one-yer deal. However, he will want 2-3 years and $10M per. I don't know. Basically he's the same kind of bet that Mike Morse would be. It would be a pick-em bet on who has the better season next year. I wouldn't mind Morse coming back here, however , on a two or three year deal. The right one, anyway.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattButler might not hit for a ton of power in Safeco, with a lot of his shots dying in the track in RCF, but I think he would be a good spray hitter...could throw some .300 BAs.1 month 2 weeks ago
misterjonezOk, good to know, Matt. That's basically where I would peg him (~.750 OPS if everything went by the numbers). And I'll say up front that I was thinking Cuddyer could be part of the solution for the M's this year. I think my reasoning broke down when I put too much faith in the whole 'Denver isn't THAT extreme any more' articles I've seen popping up here and there over the last few years. I could see him ending up with only five home HR's if he played his home games in Safeco; he looks like the classic example to send M's fans screaming into the night. Butler on the other hand has always looked like a player who could hit just fine in Safeco based on his approach, which is very much a 'Mini-Edgar' template, but that could just be anecdotal bias on my part.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattNothing Jonezy. Cuddyer was a roughly .800 OPS player before he went to Denver and still is one. In Safeco, he'd be a roughly .750 or .730 OPS player with a high OBP and much reduced power.1 month 2 weeks ago
misterjonezI'd like someone to talk me off the ledge here regarding Cuddyer. I looked at his last three years home/road splits (I know, I'm so old-fashioned) and he's sporting a .329/.393/.591 record at Denver, and a .286/.332/.463 away line. A quick look at CarGo and Tulo's numbers show an almost identical split of ~.200 OPS differential between away and home. A little deeper look, for last year at least, shows that the Rockies OPS'd .902 at home, and .636 on the road. The gap was narrower in 2013, and almost as wide again in 2012. It seems to me that a player like Cuddyer (solid BA, above average RH pop without plus BB skills) would thrive in Denver and suffer horrifically in Safeco. What am I missing about Cuddyer, specifically?1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattI'm guessing the difference is all of the minimum salary guys. Seattle shells out half a mil to every slot on the roster and works from there. Being off by 4-6 mil is easy to do when you miss 8 guys who make the league minimum1 month 2 weeks ago
MtGrizzly@BlueJays: .@BlueJays OF MELKY CABRERA has been extended a qualifying offer at US $15.3 million.1 month 2 weeks ago
bsrMatt - interesting...would be curious to know how your math differs from that site. Not that it really matters, I'd trust your figure if you say it's 107.1 month 2 weeks ago
bsrTacoma - yes - check the link I posted, those are both included along with dead money etc (Giants still paying Barry Zito $18M a year, can you imagine how bad the M's roster would be if they had a dead $18M contract on the books?). It seems like a pretty good source though I didn't comb through it line by line.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattI calculated out the payroll carefully about a month ago and concurred that it was 107 mil1 month 2 weeks ago
bsrWhatever the number, the bottom line is that of the 8 playoff teams, 7 spent more than the M's - with only Baltimore even within shouting distance, and KC slightly lower. Those scrappy underdog SF Giants spent $172M, 3rd in MLB. In 2013, there were four <$100M playoff teams, though all lost in the first round.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR Mattdang...the Mariner equivalent of Estrada would be Erasmo Ramirez. I wish we'd have made THAT offer1 month 2 weeks ago
Tacoma Rainbsr - did you add the $1.7M for Hultzen? Did you add the roughly $4M in incentives achieved by Young?1 month 2 weeks ago
bsrBtw, anybody have any idea where Mather is getting his $107M payroll figure? This site ( says $103M, and that is with Kendrys's hit overstated by $3M (reports said the M's paid only the remainder of his contract), so the actual figure is ~$100M. It does seem to be missing some MLB minimum type deals such as Sucre, and there's the 40 man roster eating up a few more bucks but I don't see how you can stretch it to $107M. Am I missing something?1 month 2 weeks ago
merksHot Stove League kicks off early with Adam Lind being traded to the Brew Crew.1 month 2 weeks ago
rick82When the owners ask Mather what it takes to get six more wins next season, the answer is quite simple: roughly $30-35 million more dollars on the free agent market. I see this as a good sign, assuming the question was a serious one.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattWell in 2015, the Mariners will travel about 82% as much as they did in 2014.1 month 2 weeks ago
MtGrizzlyInteresting. Armstrong is the gift that keeps on giving. No transition strategy? Sloppy management, that.1 month 2 weeks ago
bsrOne other tidbit, Mather says it's not primarily Safeco that turns off players from coming to Seattle, it's the excessive travel. And says he's been pressing the new commish heavily for some improvement on this front, but it'll likely take a year or two to see anything happen.1 month 2 weeks ago
bsrMather also reveals (in so many words) that Z would have been gone if this year hadn't gone well, though they were hoping not to have to cut him loose. He also talks quite candidly about how unprepared he was for the baseball ops side of the President job, how Chuck Armstrong never told him anything about it. A little disheartening given the missed LaRussa opportunity but on the flip side, it comes across that he is far more hands off with the GM. Which I would say is better on balance than having a meddlesome prez like Chuck who thinks he knows baseball.1 month 2 weeks ago
bsrWorth listening to the entire Mather interview, but basically the key quote was: "We need to be 85 to 95 wins every year...we need to be competitive year-in, year-out". That is very clearly the M's org philosophy at this point. For better or worse. Reminds me a lot of the famous Pete Carroll philosophy, "Win (8-12 Games a Year) Forever"...sorry, so hard not to be cynical about these bland Mariner rallying cries. But I do appreciate their emphasis on not having a long losing drought again. That clearly seems to have been a scarring experience for ownership and management.1 month 2 weeks ago
MtGrizzlyI think it's funny that the ownership committee is shooting for 93 wins before the off season even starts. 93 should secure a wild card, so I guess that is what they are aiming for.1 month 2 weeks ago
DaddyOIt is just like the Mariners to amplify just how much agony they endure at any expenditure increase, and how grateful what they wish was a sycophantic fan base should be.1 month 2 weeks ago
MtGrizzlyFrom mlbtr: "The Mariners, Mather explained, overshot their allotted player personnel budget by nearly $16MM in 2014. However, ownership had no complaints after seeing the team’s strong performance. Rather than asking how the $16MM would be recouped, they instead asked Mather how the team was going to get six more wins in 2015."1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianBe sure to tune into the shoutbox if you ever want to hear tomorrow's news today. :)1 month 2 weeks ago
mojicianI'd like the record to reflect that I called a Giants World Series win on the night of the NL Wild Card game and right before the World Series started. My foresight is not quite 20-20, so I predicted a series win in five games. I want bragging rights and a bracket of some kind.1 month 2 weeks ago
MtGrizzlyTo be fair, it's not as if Smoak had any success with his 'old' batting mechanics.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogModern coaches would probably try to fix M. Ott or S. Oh!1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedogChanging a hitter's stroke is more tricky than we wish to admit. There is a lot of investment by a player that has to be discarded, some can't do it. Many struggle because the stroke they have is their natural one, and the right one given their particular set of physical skills, make-up, vision, etc. Just telling a player to "go the other way" and assuming that fixes him is problematic, as is much "teaching" in that regard. PGA Tour-level players regularly "lose it" as they try to make mechanical fixes, some never get it back. What we think is purely mechanical is often bio-mechanical, meaning that a persons body optimally functions is a certain way. "Fixing" that may not be a fix. You older guys will remember Keith "Silk" Wilkes, the former UCLA and NBA player. He had a completely weird jump shot stroke that you would teach to nobody...but it worked.1 month 2 weeks ago
moethedog"Fixing" it would have been disastrous. I think both Smoak and Ackley have been "fixed" to death. leaving them alone would have been a much better option. Some guys can be changed for the better. Some can't. Leave those guys alone. Hitting coaches (like swing coaches) are paid to coach, so they do. But I think in the majority of cases they would be better (at the MLB level) if they just said, "Swing a lighter bat" or "stand closer to the plate" or "take a day off" a lot more than they do. Not every problem can be "mechanically" fixed.1 month 2 weeks ago
DaddyOI hope Smoak figures how to carve out a productive MLB career for himself. Meanwhile, he remains just one of a number of M's can't-miss hitting prospects who so far have sputtered and missed. A team can only pitch so well. Meanwhile they have to score some runs. Of course that sentiment is preaching to the choir.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattMcClendon's impulse to get Smoak to hit the opposite way and get on top of the ball was, (assuming this analysis is correct) the right thing to instruct. Smoak wanted to be a power hitter though. A power hitter's brain with a contact hitter's actual power because his swing was greedy and mechanically flawed.1 month 2 weeks ago
SABR MattJust had an interesting discussion with a hitting instructor who used to intern with the Yankees the year I was there about Smoak. He thinks the Mariners fouled up Smoak's swing mechanics. He sees in Smoak's vids, a guy who starts the bat head too low in the zone and whose swing is too wristy, meaning when he wants to hit for power (gets a cookie pitch), he is going to have to swing up at the ball and the barrell will be at both an upper-cutting and a hinged (pullside) angle. If he squares it up with that funky contact plane, the ball will be a very high fly ball (subject to warning track outs)...and if he gets funny contact, he will ground out to the pull side. Hey...remind me again...what were Smoak's main out types? When he looked at scouting vids of early Smoak...he didn't start the bat head too low and his swing was way less wristy.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571I suspect the Ms let Blake walk, though. If he's smart, he'll run to the D'backs and sign for whatever to get a chance to work with Dave Duncan. He's the classic Duncan project - big RH that doesn't overpower people and needs to learn how to pitch.1 month 2 weeks ago
Bat571Griz - I think Blake Beavan is still in the org. He was outrighted to Tacoma in August, and can become a free agent if not put back on the 40-man by a date that's pretty soon or signed to a new minor league deal, but the Ms still have a shred of the return left.1 month 2 weeks ago
DaddyOThis has nothing to do with current conversations, but I sure like Joe Panik. Not just his stats, but the way he plays the game. This guy is going to be a fixture for a LONG time.1 month 3 weeks ago
misterjonezLove to see the decision made on Smoak. The M's seriously need to re-evaluate their offensive development program, but when it's time to cut bait it's time to cut bait. LoMo looks like a better bet, and neither one projects as a world beater. Here's hoping Smoak can turn into Adam Lind in Toronto; I wish him well.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogSo here's the Lind attraction: Career vR he is .293-.349-.510! (Career vL he's .212-.257-.331) In a platoon situation at 1B or DH, he would be a terrific (and relatively cheap ($) add. Is Montero the vL bat to go with him? What is the cost of trading for Lind? But if you want to bring 115 starts of vR mashing, Lind is a guy to consider.1 month 3 weeks ago
MtGrizzlyAll of the guys that came to Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade are now gone from the org.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattand at least one of those catchers that did make the final three isn't even major league average defensively...I'll let you guys figure out which one. :)1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianSpeaking of rigged, what about Zunino's gold glove nomination? He caught the filthiest pitching staff in the American league, he cheated and stole caught strikes on a grand scale with his pitch framing, and then there are the tangibles: His AL Rankings: Second in catchers ERA, Fifth in baserunners nabbed, Third in fielding percentage, sixth in passed balls despite catching the magic changeup, the shuuto, and the Pax Curvanus, Second in games played. It is hard to come up with any measure of a catcher that Zunino isn't near the top of the leaderboard.1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianWhat about DJ making the AFL all star game with his .641 OPS and Kivlehan snubbed with his .913 OPS? This seems rigged.1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianSmoak's gone? Heh. That was a long and painful relationship. I hope he does well.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogI always felt he belonged in the NL.1 month 3 weeks ago
DaddyOSo the promise of Smoak in Seattle disappears. What we hoped to be fire turned out to be water vapor.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattSo..What would you give up to get Adam Lind?1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Matthe actually is a good fit in Toronto - good on them1 month 3 weeks ago
MtGrizzlySmoak claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays1 month 3 weeks ago
Tacoma RainIf we could sign Austin Jackson for 3 years / $25M...I'm in. Unfortunately, I believe he will be a lot closer to 5 years / $80M, which I believe is too much to spend on him. Plus I agree with Bat that several players on my list of potential OF's in the M's minors will be traded... I just do not know who.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattwe've had a lot of trouble finding a CF who could field the position, hit a little, and not get hurt...AJax fits1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571And I'm looking forward to the Alex Jackson - Austin Jackson - Austin Wilson OF! With either Alex Rios or Bradley Austin Miller as a replacement OFer.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571That would be a good thing to do while his value is down. Jackson has been pretty steadily successful in another large OF, and would be a stabilizing presence in the OF as guys come and go over the next few years. And IF the Ms got Kemp, would help mask his deficiencies in RF a bit. I'm betting he'll bounce back after a spring training with Lloyd and HoJo. Then Thirteen's idea works better, too, if the Ms decide to try that way.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattI'd consider keeping AJax longer than the year as well.1 month 3 weeks ago
diderotI know I&#039;m alone here, but I would go to Austin Jackson this year with a contract for, what, 3/$24m? His value is deflated...but his talent isn&#039;t. Securing him in the middle of the outfield makes ME feel secure.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Alex, Austin, Justin, Dustin, and the Ms have drafted 11 Tylers since 2009! And traded for Tyler Kelly. And Pike, Marlette, Herb, Smith, Olson, O'Neill, and Kelly are still around.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Of your list, TR, I'd guess that Jabari Blash will get a chance next year, and that if Austin Jackson leaves, CF would be up for grabs between Blash and JJones. But Jones will likely spend 2015 in Tacoma on pitch recognition. Lara will play in Tacoma to see if he can repeat his success at A+/AA or if he is the next Catricala. Kivlehan will not be a starter, but will take Willie Bloomquist's job sometime next year and run with it like McLemore redux. I'm betting Deej is a 1B. For various reasons, I think Choi, Romero, Morban, Paolini, Landry, Rivers, and Jamal Austin don't find a spot on an increasingly crowded M's MLB roster. Choi may be a guy if Ackley gets hurt, but both are LH, and with all the other LH hitters, he's in a squeeze. I wouldn't be surprised if Choi and Morban go in a deal.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571To try and clarify -- Austin Jackson is a free agent after next year, so that is at least one OF to sign for the 2016 season. Signing Alex Rios now for two years gets the Ms to 2017 before they need a second OF. Most commentators say Austin Wilson and Gabriel Guerrero will be ready by then (or at least with AAA time) and Alex Jackson will be close, probably in AA or AAA by Spring 2017. So, signing Alex Rios is a way of bridging to Austin Wilson or Alex Jackson, while making the re-signing of Austin Jackson more optional than it would be if two OF needed to be signed next off-season. Have I got all the Alexes and Austins straight?1 month 3 weeks ago
MtGrizzlyI think he was referring to current CF Austin Jackson.1 month 3 weeks ago
Tacoma RainBat - a couple points. First Alex Jackson should be at least 3 years away, possibly 4 years. Second, in the next 2 years, I certainly hope that the Mariners can get at least one starting OF from the list of: Choi, Kivlehan, Romero, Jones, Blash, Morban, Paolini, DJ Petersen, Lara, Landry, Rivers, J Austin, and possibly a couple infielders if Lomo was put back the in outfield.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattwow...that's...horrible. :( prayers go out to the Taveras family and their friends and loved ones around the game, as well as his teammates in St. Louis and throughout the organization.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogBad baseball news: MLBTR: Cardinals outfielder Oscar Taveras has died in a car accident in the Dominican Republic, Dionisio Soldevila of ESPNDeportes confirms (via Twitter). A variety of outlets from the Dominican Republic had reported news of the accident. Taveras’ girlfriend also reportedly passed away.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571And, of course, they've already done that with Jackson, so they'd be in a position to have to sign two OFs in 2016 (unless Blash or Wilson would be ready by then, or Jones learns to hit the bendy stuff). Rios gives them the possibility of bridging until Alex Jackson is ready. Then if a better solution (Wilson?) is ready earlier, you put Rios on the bench or trade him in-season to someone in need.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571The problem I see with that, Logan, is that Cespedes wants to play LF, not RF (which is why he is on the outs in Boston!) and therefore doesn't fit with the current Ms. But on the general point, if the Ms could get Rios on a 2-year deal it would be much the same thing - he wouldn't be in the way of an upgrade next year. Rios and Saunders sharing RF would be a fairly Optimal (that word again) solution for 2015.1 month 3 weeks ago
ThirteenI think the M's should be renting an outfielder for 2015. The pre-2016 outfield FA market is Heyward, J. Upton, Gordon, Zobrist, Cespedes, Jackson, Fowler and Victorino. No reason to be making the big monetary investment in the outfield this year. I say trade for whichever one of those guys is the best buy - probably Cespedes, who looks to be on the outs in Boston - and then take the QO and sign one long-term after the season.1 month 3 weeks ago
maqmanIlitch isn&#039;t worried about the money, he&#039;s worth $4 billion according to Forbes. At 85 years old, with a burning desire to bring a world championship in baseball to Detroit money is not the leading factor, his legacy is. If Cabrera&#039;s operation sidelines him at the start of the season he will need V-Mart more than ever, not less. Players he can buy, time he can&#039;t.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattThey'd have Price for one more year...that would be it.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattIf they don't keep Scherzer, their play-off hopes are completely gone. Their rotation will collapse utterly without him (IMHO). They have no one ready in the minors to take his rotation spot, and Verlander is "aging out" of his peak performance...their rotation becomes a crumbling Verlander, Porcello, Sanchez, ??????1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571The Tigers have to be trying now to figure out how to get maximum value out of Cabrera's contract going forward -- and DH is the logical way to reduce stress on his feet/legs. Is VMart suddenly a luxury for them in spite of Illitch's desire to get a WS title - Is the money better spent keeping Scherzer?1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Given the Tigers' issues at 1B, 3B, and in the bullpen, I wonder if it might be worth offering Smoak, Romero, and Medina for a few of their minor leaguers (James McCann?) just to clear some roster room and make their decisions on VMart a bit harder? We've discussed stop loss as being valuable - maybe it would be to them as well, if the Ms didn't ask for too much in return.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571Miguel Cabrera had ankle surgery today and it was worse than expected - had to have screws inserted for a stress fracture and will have to be off his feet throughout the off-season. My idea of offering Smoak suddenly got more realistic! And VMart's bargaining position took a hit unless he wants to play a lot of 1B for the Tigers. This is getting interesting! Offering 3 years with a 4th year option and a buyout might still get it done and put the issue to bed. Maybe the price is now closer to $15M a year? And $50M guaranteed?1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattstill would rather have the devil I know than the one I don't for this club1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattthe first round pick is a very good point.1 month 3 weeks ago
Tacoma RainPlus the Mariners keep their first round draft choice going with Tomas1 month 3 weeks ago
Tacoma RainI would rather not go over 3 years with VMart... and I really do not want to go over $80M for Tomas either, but I think of the two choices I'd rather have Tomas. The Cubans have just been too good at the MLB lately not to take the gamble - especially if somehow he is under $13M per year.1 month 3 weeks ago it is up.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogMy VMart sign-on didn't come up. But I'll add this. 7/$118 seems very unlikely for Tomas, to me. he's not an Abreu or a Cespedes...based on Cuban numbers, but I like his short-quick stroke. Last year he carried a bunch of weight......looking almost Ruthian with those pin-like legs, but he moves and sprays the ball and has power. If he's a 5 yr./$50M guy, there's much to roll the dice on.1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianV-Mart!!!!! No sueldo Tomas mucho dinero por favor.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogRemember that the VMart we might get isn't the '14 VMart, please. That year was his career outlier year, most likely. he was more than 20% better (OPS+) than any previous year (at age 35) and 60 OPS pts better than anything before (nearly 100 pts better than his previous #2 season). We're paying for a very good player, .300+-.370+-.460+ (before any decline), but we're not getting '14 VMart. He's not my #1 pick, but I would take him over Tomas, I believe. VMart is a waiting game, too. Make the move early.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattVMart. We're in win-now mode and Tomas is a bit of a gamble.1 month 3 weeks ago
Tacoma RainGuys - who move would you rather see the Mariners do... VMart at 4 years / $68M or Yasmany Tomas at 7 years / $118M?1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattIf we could somehow get Zobrist and Vic Martinez..I would start giggling the moment it was done and not stop giggling until we were having our WS parade in Seattle.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattI still want me some of that Zobrist. Even if he is in decline.1 month 3 weeks ago
Tacoma RainThe best part about Zobrist is that he is a switch hitter, with very little splits... and it appears he is stalking pitches as well1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianThere are openings at the Twins and Rockies.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogMLBTR says so.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattJoe Maddon quit the Rays????1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogJoe Maddon opts out in Tampa Bay. Zobrist has only '15 on his contract then is a FA. I would have no problem with sending Saunders for Zobrist, in a hurry...if we could get him to extend for a year (or not). Get him for both '15 and '16. Heck, I would move Ackley for him, too. But Saunders might be a nice thing to dangle in front of the Rays. They are in a weird spot now. Move quickly. Make an offer they can't refuse. At $7.5M Zobrist doesn't drive salary up much and he gives you a career vL line of .285-.363-.447 (better last year). I've not been a huge fan of getting Zobrist as THE guy, but this deal could be had, I think...if we're aggressive. TB loses him in a year anyway.1 month 3 weeks ago
moethedogThey'll dicker...but we have pieces to make it happen. They are going to want to give Franklin PT...probably at 2B, anyway. Saunders+ likely gets it done. The + guy could be Romero or Marte, etc. Might take a younger guy. But act now. Zobby in RF would be just fine with me. Then you get Van Slyke or your other RH bat. Done right, you could get a Miller as a lefty reliver and you're off and running. I would prefer Kemp...but mostly I would prefer getting a RH bat soon. then you have a while to sniff around and add the next piece.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattJAMA has had a number of conference talk summaries dedicated to the concern among healthcare professionals about the rising shortage of docs as the early retirement rate spikes, BTW. I encourage you to google takes very little effort to find corroborating evidence.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Matt month 3 weeks ago
phxterryMatt - would like to see your source data for "so many docs ...quitting right now." Thanks1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattindeed, Grumpy...that's why so many docs are quitting right's not a good place to be a doctor anymore.1 month 3 weeks ago
GrumpyWell, reimbursements go down but expenses go up. Markets in healthcare are fracturing into competing closed systems so volumes go down. Only solution is to run faster.1 month 3 weeks ago
Grumpy(Which I assume G is doing)1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR Mattthat's just not healthy...not at all.1 month 3 weeks ago
Grumpy70 (or more) hour work weeks are what's required to succeed in a healthcare field these days especially if you are running a small business like a physical therapy outfit.1 month 3 weeks ago
SABR MattGordon - why on Earth are you pulling 70 hour workweeks? You should consider a change in career.1 month 3 weeks ago
Gordon GrossBoy, do I wish I was not working 70 hour weeks and could contribute to this. Thanks for the great discussions, guys.1 month 3 weeks ago
Bat571My part 3 is in the hopper. It repeats a lot of what's being dicussed in the existing threads, but I have a somewhat different take on the constraints on JackZ and their basis. Appreciate it if you could jailbreak it, Doc, and any comments are of interest. Hopefully my take adds something to the discussion.1 month 3 weeks ago
jemanji*Super* cool Mo' Dawg :- )1 month 3 weeks ago
jemanjiBat571 - many times this happens to me when the pic is too big, or when it's from an unfriendly source (copyright issues?). I try a smaller pic, or one from a different original source, and everything's fine. … I've got a Q in to the boss on it. Thanks for your material! :- ) Jeff1 month 3 weeks ago
mojicianThat story is awesome Moe.1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogA short Giants story: Their rookie BU catcher, Andrew Susac, is the grandson of a good friend of mine, a city counsellor I served with. In mid-August Susac hit his first MLB homer, an opposite field job in Wrigley. One of my college roommates, a HUGE Giants fan, was watching the game on TV and called me to tell me.(he knew the hometown connection as he had read about it in a Giant's on-line mag) I was in Missoula dropping Bailey off at college. I called Andrew's granddad, suspecting he would be watching the game on TV. When he answered I just asked if this was the granddad of a guy who had just hit his first career homer. He said "I'm so excited that I can't breath! I think I'm floating on air!" It was one of the coolest calls I've ever made. A game in Chi-Town, a buddy in Portland, me in Missoula and a glowing granddad on the Oregon Coast = the magic of baseball (and cel phones!)!1 month 4 weeks ago
mojicianThose who bet against the Giants in even numbered years end up poorer and wiser. Its not about WAR, or roster construction or who has the smarter GM or the better team. The Giants laugh at your logic. Based on that sort of thinking, the Nats or the Dodgers won the pennant. For the Giants, its about making the post season, and then "burning the other cities down, every last one of them". The Royals are Cinderella, the Giants are Vandal maurauders with trophy lust. The Giants are specialists at dispatching Cinderella teams from Missouri. Giants in 5. In a week's time, remember where you heard that. :)1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogOr noticed the lack of a picture...1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogI just noticed it. Not there: Sorry.1 month 4 weeks ago
SABR Mattno...I don't see his picture either.1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogYou could try logging out and see if the pic is there.....1 month 4 weeks ago
moethedogBat, that has happened to me once or twice. I've eventually assumed that I was the only one who couldn't see the picture.1 month 4 weeks ago
Bat571Hey, Doc or KLAT admin guys - my uploaded picture doesn't seem to show in the front page tile view. I changed it twice, and it does show up on the article page, but, did I do something wrong (.png is O.K., right?) or what?1 month 4 weeks ago
Bat571Taijuan's Mom has had cancer - I suspect he just wants to be with family. But I hope his Mom has not taken a turn for the worse.1 month 4 weeks ago
SABR MattHmm...I hope Walker doesn't have a behavior issue to work out.1 month 4 weeks ago
mojicianIn the morning article, not the tweet, it sounds like Walker had legit personal reasons for leaving. As in, no Jesus Montero drama.1 month 4 weeks ago
mojicianTaijuan Walker thinks that an instructional league consists of new victims learning about pain and suffering.1 month 4 weeks ago
mojicianNew Marinerland drama: Shannon Drayer tweets that Taijuan Walker has gone AWOL from the AFL. Maybe he likes it in Tacoma.1 month 4 weeks ago
MtGrizzlyThe guys on one of the pre-game shows indicated that Harvin refused to go back into the Dallas game and that was what sealed his fate.2 months 1 hour ago
misterjonezFrom reading tweets (I know, I know) and articles at Fieldgulls I came away with the overwhelming impression that he was becoming a clubhouse cancer. I generally think that when an organization (and league) made up, primarily, of Alpha Males complains of a person's personality, there's a serious problem. good on the 'Hawks for sticking to their guns and the 'program first' mantra.2 months 2 hours ago
DaddyOStory of the Seahawks this season: In contrast to last year, this season the Hawks's defense is not generating sufficient pressure on the quarterback, and they are not taking the ball away (turnovers).2 months 2 hours ago
Cool Papa BellThey went out of their way to get him the ball trying to make him happy. Now they will have a lot more freedom. He's not as big a loss as it may seem on paper.2 months 1 day ago
misterjonezWow, DaddyO...that's, well...shocking. Not sure what that means for the offense going forward; they had pretty much built the machine around him stretching the field laterally.2 months 1 day ago
DaddyOAnd so it becomes clear that the Percy Harvin era in Seattle is over before it ever really got going. One can't help but wonder what changed since their decision to forgo resigning Golden Tate. Continuing physical issues?2 months 2 days ago
Tacoma RainGo wash your hands with soapy soap Bat for writing such blasphemy... May Montero never don the tools of ignorance again!!!2 months 3 days ago
Bat571The beauty of signing VMart is being able to occasionally DH Zunino, knowing VMart could put the gear on if needed. Technically, Montero could as well, but ...2 months 3 days ago
Bat571I like Sucre, but he hasn't hit his weight. Hicks also is a good baserunner who can steal a base as well. I expect Hicks will start in AAA, but will swap with Sucre after 200 or so ABs of the same .750 OPS and continuing to show he can handle catching duties, especially balls in the dirt. He's considerably better than Marlette at catching, but Marlette has the better bat, but Marlette is still a year or so behind. But I can see Hicks and Zunino leading a championship staff AND contributing with the bat each is his own way. And if Zunino can catch 100-120 games and stay fresh, all the better.2 months 3 days ago
GLSHicks developing into a legit backup option for Zunino could be one of those under the radar non-moves that really helps this team in the next few years. Zunino played in 131 games this year, and he was basically out of gas in September. Having a legitimate backup that can play the position defensively and also contribute a little bit with the bat could easily be worth a couple more wins each year.2 months 3 days ago
Bat571Hicks is turning out to be the anti-Zunino at the plate -- .294 BA, .400 OBP, but a .353 slugging. Looks like they might be a dandy combo. And Hicks is getting nice reviews for his pitch-calling and general defense.2 months 3 days ago
Bat571And, by the way, Patrick Kivlehan was 2-3 today with a 2B, HR, and a walk. Deej was 0-3, and Hicks 1-3 with 2 runs scored.2 months 3 days ago
Bat571The Venezuelans have even talked about ending the heating oil subsidy plan that the Kennedy family administers in New England and selling Citgo! Maybe the sign at Fenway will be worth hitting again!2 months 3 days ago
Bat571Maybe Raul Castro has hit the point where a change is needed to get investment in the country. The dire straits the Venezuelans are in due to the boom in North American oil production means they have to cut the subsidies they've been giving Havana. I've also heard that the Cuban government is considering making the ministry of sport into an autonomous organization (something like PBS, I suppose). Very interesting. Cuban prestige might be enhanced if their athletes could play in other countries, and both Europe and the U.S. are lobbying for reducing travel restrictions. Where will it lead ? .....2 months 3 days ago
Bat571Just in the past few days there have been a number of editorials (including the NY Times) suggesting that the time has come to modify the embargo. The Cuban government has apparently indicated to the Europeans they are ready to meet some of the conditions set by the U.S. Now Cuban players have apparently been allowed to leave, with at least one flying out and arriving in Mexico with his passport. I just find this all very interesting - I remember the China breakthrough started with ping-pong.2 months 3 days ago
SABR MattThere is no chance that any change will happen with Cuban players that compensates Cuba. None. Zero. There could be rules changes here at home limiting how much ballclubs are allowed to pay Cuban defectors...but Cuba is off limits to meddling with finances.2 months 3 days ago
mojicianAre there some signs the Trading With The Enemy Act might be repealed? It's currently a crime to travel to Cuba or buy Cuban stuff unless you are there for academic reasons. I don't know what the Feds would do if someone worked a deal with the Cuban Government. Treason charges? But, on the flip side of that, the U.S. Government knows where it stands in relation to baseball in the hearts and minds of most Americans. People don't send their Congressmen to Washington to mess with baseball.2 months 4 days ago
Bat571Make Ted Turner special U.S. Ambassador to Figure-It-Out. He's a liberal democrat and knows how baseball works (the only owner-manager since Connie Mack?), but also has a big enough following in the South to get some sort of system worked out so the best Cuban players don't have to deal with smugglers and other low-lifes to get here. They'll just have to deal with Boras or the Levinson brothers and avoid Miami "medical" clinics.2 months 4 days ago
Bat571What's interesting is these last few guys are leaving Cuba seemingly much easier - apparently some are even keeping their passports. I still expect a posting system is not far away. The embargo wouldn't allow payment to the government directly, but Angelos or somebody will figure out a fudge (making the Cuban League a charitable sports foundation like the Olympics?). Then the Cuban Leagues will become like the Mexican League - an AAA/AA league recognized by MLB, but with their own acquisition/trade rules.2 months 4 days ago
Bat571From what I've read, he's expected to be in the tier just below Cano/Pedroia/Altuve. Expect one again for the Yankees to be involved in the rebuilding by cashbox method of roster construction Their outfield is ~crowded, but they can use MIFers. Moncada or Fernandez? Only Hal knows for sure.2 months 4 days ago
SABR MattIf he can play second...he can probably play first...but 2B is so thin...someone will pay him like an all star 2B2 months 4 days ago
mojicianThis Fernandez sounds like someone the Mariners could use. Can he play 1b or outfield?2 months 4 days ago
SABR MattBad news for Yasmani Tomas and all MLB 2B free agents. The big fish is out there now - Cuban ex-patriot Jose Fernandez (now defected) will probably be available to big league teams around mid February by all estimates now that he has escaped. Jose Fernandez is considered one of the most advanced Cuban players ever to exit their system...a on-base machine with occasional pop and a top notch glove. Scouts think his eye makes him an ideal lead-off hitter in the big leagues. That is going to severely harm the free agent middle infield market as teams wait for the big boy to show up. And it might screw with how many teams get involved in the bidding for Tomas.2 months 4 days ago
diderotI think JZ knows what he needs to do--and it seems ownership agrees. But it&#039;s interesting that the Royals won only two more games than we did...with worse Pythag...playing in a weaker division...with fewer injuries. Hard to see how we&#039;re not that far away from the same kind of run that they&#039;re delivering.2 months 4 days ago
SABR MattI would say that the Royals are an example of a team that is playing lucky. Not meaning to take away from KC...but their roster is not constructed to produce the way it is currently producing. They are KILLING the ball this post-season...they had a 91 OPS+ in the regular season and were last in the AL in homers. Sometimes a good team just plays out of its mind i the post-season and way over-performs reasonable expectations. I'm loving it, since I'm rooting for KC, but I wouldn't let the Royals influence my thinking for what the Mariners need to do this off-season much...other than to re-emphasize the point that once you get into the post-season, anything can happen.2 months 4 days ago
rick82Funny. On one side we have the Giants and Cards, who "know how to win". On the other side we have the Royals, who are only know learning how to win.2 months 4 days ago
DaddyOBTW, I know that Franklin was not with the M's in September, his name was thrown in for purposes of illustrating the comparison.2 months 4 days ago
DaddyOKC's young talent suddenly produced to it's potential in the playoffs, right before the eyes of a national audience. At least that's my take. Look at what Hosmer and Moustakis have done. Neither had yet fulfilled what was considered their potential. Gordon was the only one. In a way, it's how things would be for the M's had some combination of Ackley, Miller, Franklin, and Saunders done so in late September and October. At least that's my take on it.2 months 4 days ago
bsrSo the lowly KC Royals, doppelganger franchise to the M's over the past several years, and a significantly worse team than the M's this year per SSI (relaying Pythagoras' assessment)...are 7-0 in the playoffs and on the brink of a World Series appointment. What the heck happened? And what are the implications for the 2015+ M's? (Assuming they have any chance of getting past the juggernaut Royals ;)2 months 4 days ago
SABR Mattall good points, bat...we'll see. I think, however, that Ng, if chosen, will not make big franchise-altering trades. She'll want to play it safe at first. They have a good team and there is no reason for them to make big splashy moves to contend.2 months 4 days ago
Bat571And since she's already known in LA from being the assistant GM before McCourt dumped her, the press there is probably more willing to give her some time she wouldn't get in Philly, Boston, or NY.2 months 4 days ago
Bat571In general, I'd agree with you, Matt. But the perfect situation for Ng is with strong backup from someone like Friedman which will allow her to leverage her abilities UNTIL people respect for what she is. I don't think she'll get a better situation to do that.2 months 4 days ago
SABR MattKim Ng...I am very skeptical of her as a GM. Very skeptical. Not because she lacks the requisite abilities, but because I am not entirely convinced she'll get a completely fair shake from the other GMs or the press. I guess we'll have to see.2 months 5 days ago
Bat571I'm hearing Kim Ng is the immediate front runner to be the Dodger GM under Friedman as President under the new favorite FO alignment. As a former player (like Angie Mentinck, she played NCAA college softball), she might be more inclined to try to settle the clubhouse (whether that would mean Kemp or Puig moving is anybody's guess), rather than just go by the numbers, as Friedman might be inclined to do. If so, another piece of news that *might* work to the Ms favor.2 months 5 days ago
diderotWonder how Friedman in Los Angeles will affect their decisions on solving their outfield problem. I&#039;m guessing Jack will be inquiring.2 months 5 days ago
Bat571Taijuan Walker went head-to-head with the other guy who's supposedly the best RH pitching prospect - Archie Bradley. Bradley now has a 7.20 ERA after allowing 3 ER in 3 IP in today's game. Taijuan pitched 5 IP, 77 pitches, 2 H, 1 R/ER, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 6 K. Now has a 2.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP with 11 Ks in 9 IP. Looks like he's tuning up quite nicely. Kivlehan has a .931 OPS after 5 games, while Hicks is outhitting Deej .748 to .719. Salt River won because a reliever allowed 6 runs after Taijuan's start - he'll enjoy the M's bullpen more for the experience.2 months 6 days ago
IcebreakerXMaybe Austin Jacksons should be the one aired out in the media... Look at that season-long dive...: months 6 days ago
jemanjiBSR: (1) Check the debt/value column. Usually the M's show less yearly cash-flow because they're banking equity - simply deferring profit. (2) The M's operating income has been impacted by their running the product into the ground. (3) Teams *average* -$12M yearly cash-flow but can easily take -$40 to -$80 if they like. When the M's pass on a $10M player and the on-field roster quits in May, that's the syndrome.2 months 1 week ago
bsrHmm I did not realize it was that big of a gap. If the delta between the M's and a typical franchise spending level truly is $20M of unspent payroll potential...obviously that is huge. Even the $10M surplus they are running would be a big deal if put toward payroll. Probably would have meant a playoff berth this year, and a chance to pull a Royals in a relatively weak year without dominant teams in the AL. Let's hope they are willing to budget a tighter margin over the next few years, given the opportunity at hand. I could easily see us getting to $130M soon if they are willing to do so.2 months 1 week ago
SABR Mattbsr is right, though, that Nintendo's financial troubles are likely having an impact on how risky the Mariners can play things year to year.2 months 1 week ago
SABR MattSomeone did a study like 2 years ago showing that the average team loses 12 million per year or somesuch...the Mariners make about 10 million per year on average since the Yamauchi era began.2 months 1 week ago
bsrOne question for those who know the finances of MLB teams - how much are we talking about as the delta between the profits the M's take and the losses a typical ownership group would allow? According to Forbes, in 2013 they ran a small $5M surplus that came in middle of the pack in MLB. The freakin Cardinals banked $65M! (Probably making the World Series helps a lot.) I don't know if those Forbes numbers are accurate though. ( months 1 week ago
bsr@Matt: I would say losing a little money on a cash flow basis every year is a feature not a bug of sports guys have a lot of other income that needs to be tax sheltered :) Nintendo OTOH is a money losing company overall, so they have no incentive to post tax losses on the team. I really think the M's payroll decisions are mostly rational and based on the nature of ownership, not a "lack of will to win" or whatever. We saw payroll go up substantially in 2014 when the national TV money kicked in. I have stated here before that I expect another substantial increase for 2015. We'll see.2 months 1 week ago
rick82It's just so strange to think we were all set to sign Cruz for $7 mil. I thought he was the one turning US down. I thought we lost the playoffs when we couldn't talk him into playing for us. I didn't think for a second the problem was he couldn't talk us into signing him. I'm just...dumbfounded. We sign Cano for all this money, and don't sign the bat to hit behind him? A rock bottom prices? It just boggles my mind. I don't know how to follow baseball rumors anymore. This is, after all, the team that took a flyer on Milton Bradley.2 months 1 week ago
SABR Mattbsr...I think the Mariners are cash strapped only if they cling to their goal of always banking positive net revenue quarterly. And they're a lot less cash strapped even in that sense now that the new TV deal is kicking in. But most MLB teams lose money every year. Most teams don't care about losing a bit in annual revenue as long as the value of the franchise goes up.2 months 1 week ago
bsr@GLS: who knows...maybe JZ did his full diligence on Cruz, and with those facts in hand the execs decided against could be many different explanations, we have no idea. Heck maybe both the M's and O's know the guy is still on the juice and only the O's were willing to take the risk that MLB would catch him...I think that there are many things we as fans don't know about ballplayers that the insiders do know. I tend to think that when we see moves that seem dumbfoundingly illogical, we have to strongly consider the possibility that we don't know all the facts. That goes for just about anything in life, not just baseball.2 months 1 week ago
bsr@CPB: do you think that JZ currently operates under far more micromanagement than the typical baseball (/sports) GM? As for the team's finances, I've never seen it stated anywhere that they are banking large cash profits annually. My understanding is they try to run a small operating surplus, but nothing eg like what the Marlins owner has done, banking massive profits at the expense of the team. So when I say cash strapped, I am not saying they are losing money, I just mean they are not willing (or IMO even able) to invest in payroll beyond annual cash flow. Mainly because they are basically an estate tax shelter housed in a corporation, with no functional majority owner. If I am off here, and the team is actually holding back on payroll significantly beyond what they could spend based on revenues, I'd love to hear about it. I am just going off everything I've read in the past and my best understanding of the team financial situation and sports economics in general.2 months 1 week ago
Cool Papa BellAnd the M's are not "cash strapped". When they were winning they had one of the highest revenues in the league. They were leading baseball in attendance in a brand new cash cow of a stadium. They absolutely were not struggling for money and still aren't. The budget has been unnecessarily low, both because of thier prioritizing profits over winning and as another means of gaining influence over baseball decisions.2 months 1 week ago
Cool Papa BellNot every owner is meddlesome. Billy Beane can do whatever he wants without permission so long as he doesn't exceed his budget. Other owners only involve themselves in baseball decisions when it involves the teams most popular or expensive players. There is a spectrum of how meddlesome owners are, and the M's execs are at the extreme end. They want to micromanage every decision. They deliberately hired Bavasi because they knew he'd be pliant and they operated as if they were co-GMs. They hired all the managers under him and had Hargrove report to them in order to undermine Bavasi and ensure that they were the ones calling the shots. Jack has been given more freedom, but Lincoln still expects to be in the loop and have the final say.2 months 1 week ago
Cool Papa BellTest2 months 1 week ago
GLSI think there's more to it than that bsr. If ownership had reservations about Cruz, why did the General Manager pursue a contract to begin with?2 months 1 week ago
bsrIn general, I think the standing critique of the M's leadership as "meddlesome" is not a helpful one for understanding the team. All sports ownership groups get involved in all aspects of running teams, to varying degrees. It is their money being spent after all. Most of the M's folks historically crying foul about "meddling" were not very competent themselves. And many of the charges of meddling can better be understood as financial decisions by a cash strapped, leaderless ownership group (as carried out by Lincoln/Armstrong/Mather/whoever).2 months 1 week ago
bsrChurchill seems to be a knowledgeable guy, so I'm trying to understand what he is thinking with those points, because they make no sense. Of course ownership/executive management gets involved in "baseball decisions" and overrides the GM at times. That is true of any team in any sport. Particularly when it comes to issues of morality and the "brand" of the team being at risk. I don't see anything off about this.2 months 1 week ago
MtGrizzly@ProspectInsider: ... so the GM either did not know how much he was allowed to spend on payroll or he's not the final word on baseball decisions. Both = bad.2 months 1 week ago
MtGrizzly@ProspectInsider: To expand on what we've been talking about re: Cruz deal, We don't know exactly who nixed the deal, but the report is that it wasn't the GM2 months 1 week ago
Tacoma RainIt would be interesting to find out who or/ and how many in Mariner Management said no to Cruz... and I really do not care why. The WHO is what I want.2 months 1 week ago
SABR Mattsounded like Mather was going to be pushing for added bats...but will the owners be willing to sign off?2 months 1 week ago
Tacoma RainCsiems... I think the BIG issue about the Cruz almost signing, is what that says about Jack and this Mariner Management team going into this off season. For Jack, Jack wanted a Mariner OF with Ackley, Almonte, Cruz, Hart, LoMo, with Saunders as a defensive replacement and he had Endy tucked away in Tacoma - because Jack wanted offense. Mariner Management was OK with signing Rodney, but not Cruz. Mariner Management thought the M's had enough offense without Cruz. Jack was RIGHT!!! I hope that means something this off season.2 months 1 week ago
csiems@Grizz Hart was signed in December back when Cruz was asking for the big money, so I can't fault Z for misreading that market. I think in hindsight though, you wouldn't even take Hart's phone calls if you think you can get Cruz for the same amount of money.2 months 1 week ago
PlawsableThere is no way to be sure how well he would have done here anyway. It is not like we could just transplant his numbers. He could potentially have put up near the same or could have started with a bad month that got Safeco into his head and snowballed into a bad season. Cruz has looked pretty good while making hitters parks his home. More, I can not say for sure.2 months 1 week ago
mojicianSteroids are a win-win for the club. If a player is not caught, then he plays much better than he should with vast improvement to recovery rate, vision and muscle mass. If he is caught, then he is suspended, and the team is off the hook for restricted list money, and has a potential of voiding his contract entirely. Also, these players only seem to get caught from their steroid paper trails and not because their HGH gummy bears are actually tripping the test. Why would anyone assume that Cruz has quit using steroids?2 months 1 week ago
benihanaI dislike meddlesome ownership as much as everyone else here. But what the outrage seems to be missing is that the M's spent the Cruz money on Rodney. And I'm fine with that.2 months 1 week ago
MtGrizzlyEven if they did think that he would decline, one would think that he would have been a better bet than Hart coming off surgery to both knees. Especially on such a short contract.2 months 1 week ago
SABR Mattwhat did the Mariners think? That Cruz would lose all of his magical powers if he stopped taking the potion? Do they not understand basic medical science?2 months 1 week ago
SABR AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH inducing indeed. Seriously? You wussed on Cruz for practically nothing?? You...IDIOTS. GAH!2 months 1 week ago
MtGrizzlyGood gravy, man! I was not a huge Cruz advocate but for, basically, Hart's contract it should have been a no-brainier.2 months 1 week ago
ThirteenDutton says the Mariners had Cruz effectively signed to 1/$7.5M with a 9M 2015 option... until ownership got steroid-shy and backed off, letting him fall to Baltimore. Argh. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh. I mean, presumably they don't land Rodney if they splash for Cruz, and then the bullpen doesn't click like it did, but... aaaaargh! What might have been!2 months 1 week ago
MtGrizzlyDepending on how the off season plays out, there could be a 1B/OF slot up for grabs in 2015. Be nice to see some OBP, that's for certain.2 months 1 week ago
moethedogChoi is an OBP-machine vs. RHP. As a true lead-off hitter he would be interesting....if he has the glovey chops for LF (and if we are moving off of Ackley..which doesn't seem to be the case.)2 months 1 week ago
SABR Mattinteresting that they're trying him in the OF - do they think he can stick out there?2 months 1 week ago
MtGrizzly@MiLBMariners: Ji-Man Choi in the opening day lineup for Tigres de Aragua, batting 5th & playing LF.2 months 1 week ago
SABR Matt(by that I meant in the class of tools he carries, the streakiness, the physical appearance and the swing shape - Saunders is better at judging pitches and faster on the bases which makes him the better player by far...but I frequently flash back to Langerhans when he is in the line-up)2 months 1 week ago
SABR MattSaunders reminds me in some ways of Ryan Langerhans2 months 1 week ago
diderotBat, I think that&#039;s a really good point. I remember Lloyd at his hiring news conf saying he was going out and visiting players in person. I have no idea how many that was...or whether Saunders was included. But I do find the LMC/JZ comments confounding. If they wanted more conditioning from him, they could have just waited and told him personally. If they were positioning for the arbitration hearing, there&#039;s no reason to do that publicly. If they want to trade him, they just deflated his value. Occum&#039;s Razor here?--maybe they just screwed up?2 months 1 week ago
Bat571Whatta ya think, Doc? The change from a controlling manager to a demanding manager causing some discombobulation?2 months 1 week ago
Bat571Because of Wedge quitting, and how he baby-sat a lot of these guys and checked up on them in previous off-seasons, maybe guys got a bit lackadaisical about conditioning -- Montero certainly did! But some others may have done less than Lloyd expects and he's using Saunders to make clear his expectations.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571On Saunders, I'm wondering if he was not following through on all the advice and instruction on rehabbing his shoulder through the last off-season from the 2013 injury and they think that's why it flared up again. That's the only reason I can see for them making it sound like injuries were somehow his fault. Now, if he didn't consistently do the exercises they gave him to do, I can see the problem when it cropped up again. Now it sounds like they're challenging his manhood to do it right this off-season on his own or say sayonara.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571Mariners org winter league stats here - months 1 week ago
Bat571Looks like the Ms no longer have anything going with Lara in the VWL - there's a Mariner on every team but the Tiburones, though. Felix Fermin in managing Lara, Eduardo Perez is managing the Aguilas, Henry Blanco the Bravos, and Luis Sojo the Tigres, so there's plenty of Mariner flavor down there.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571I expect both Hicks and Blash will be up mid-year, and Deej sometime after the ASB. Kivlehan will get up in September because the roster will be too stuffed beforehand. As always, it also depends on who they sign and who they trade. But Blash was real close before his suspension, and if he can get back on track, he'll force them to look. Deej needs about 300-400 AAA PAs just to make sure he's ready for everything. Patrick needs a good part of a AAA season in the OF if Deej shows he can play 1B and Morrison continues to hit.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571I'll bet Hicks beats both Deej and Kivelehan to the Show. His bat has really come around and his defensive skills are excellent. I suspect he comes to ST loaded for bear, and when Sucre continues to hit like he always has, Hicks will be up around June (~200 more AAA PAs) as Zunino's backup.2 months 1 week ago
moethedogWith one AFL game under their belt, John Hicks is 1-3, Deej is 1-3 with a 2B and Kivlehan is 1-4 with a homer. Those last tow guys are going to get some Seattle PT consideration sometime in '15.2 months 1 week ago
mojicianI think Saunders agent is a little bit off base to criticize the Mariners for not playing Saunders for 4-5 games in September. Saunders needs to rest his bones. McClendon also stated that the days he didn't pencil Saunders into the lineup on many occasions was because he wanted to play Endy Chavez. Chavez was very clutch this year.2 months 1 week ago
mojicianNow, I'm wondering if Saunders' AC injury in June was related to his old war wounds. About Saunders playing time: He played full time in May and early June before getting hurt, he came back and started playing again full time from the end of June until July 10, when he was hurt again. Granted, he was shortchanged in April, where he played about half time, but it is clear that when he did play all the time, he got injured.2 months 1 week ago
mojicianAugust 24, 2012. Michael Saunders runs into Eric Thames. Both are running at full speed. Saunders sits until September 7 except for one at bat on August 31. April 10, 2013. Saunders sprains his shoulder slamming into a wall and does not play again until April 29. He does not start hitting well again until July 10, 2013. On June 12, 2014, Saunders was placed on the disabled list from a persistent nagging AC joint inflammation in his shoulder. He was hurt for several days before this happened, and then he returned five days later. On July 10, he tore his oblique, and was out for most of the season.2 months 1 week ago
mojicianCondor needs to quit running into stuff for his sake and ours. He needs to be more like Ichiro and less like Josh Hamilton. Save running into concrete walls for Game 7 of the World Series. How many games has Condor missed now because of collisions? I don't know why Z and McClendon would imply that his conditioning is suspect. He always seems to have a lot of energy. Like y'all pointed out, maybe his stretching is poor. Maybe McClendon was implying that if Saunders was going to be a walking injury case like a 240 lb outfielder, he should at least be 240 lbs, and have the 30 homers to go with it.2 months 1 week ago
SABR MattI feel like Churchill is not all that reliable on matters like I'll wait to see any commentary on it in the credentialed press2 months 1 week ago
drmI feel like the Mariners get no benefit of the doubt by fans. Everything that's reported about anything, it's always the M's are at fault. I feel like this all stems bake from when Jack Z. first came to town and things didn't work out that year. It's funny because the M's did all that sabr friendly stuff and they lost over 100 games. So they shifted back a bit away from sabr stuff and the sabr friendly fans haven't forgiven them.2 months 1 week ago
drmI'm taking that reporting with a grain of salt. What else is the agent going to say? He can't say the team talked about this with him, that would make his client look bad.2 months 1 week ago
DaddyOGriz, thanks for linking to the Churchill article on Saunders. If accurate, the lack of communication just makes you just shake your head. The team made multi-million dollar judgments about a player, at a position of need, no less, without so much as a conversation. Saunders has talent to spare. If you leave aside proneness to injury, the biggest problem I see with him is one he can't really fix-- a HUGE strike zone due to his frame. He seems unable to cover it. Imagine how good he would be if he could.2 months 1 week ago
rick82That's kinda what I would expect an agent to say: "his client works hard, and does everything the team asks him to do." I'm a little suspicious of this desire of McClendon's to have him hit the weight room, however. I don't want a bulked up Michael Saunders. Doc has me more interested in a fluid, yoga practicing Michael Saunders. I'm not sure more weight training equals fewer injuries. But I'm not the guy to ask.2 months 1 week ago
MtGrizzlyDisturbing article from Churchill regarding Saunders. Given the quotes from his agent and the M's history of dealing with these types of things, I'll bet he's gone in the off season. months 1 week ago
MtGrizzlyHow wonderful and rare is it for an Internet forum like this to be entirely troll-free? I made the mistake of reading through the comments in a Seattle Times article. Shudder.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571And the Astros bullpen is their biggest weakness. Maybe Medina and Colvin for Santana?2 months 1 week ago
Bat571Houston is a dark horse to sign Tomas. If they do, Domingo Santana and Robbie Grossman would be shunted - the Ms might want to be in position to snap either of those guys up. Santana OPSed .858 at AAA with a .952 vL (.775 vR) and he's only 22. Grossman is a 25yo switch hitter with a very low platoon split, but is slightly better vL and has played the last 2 years between AAA and the Astros. That might work as well for the Ms as signing Tomas himself.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571The way I read it, the Yankees have gone WAY over already (~500%), and will lose the ability to sign a prospect for >$300K after June 15, 2015 until July 2, 2017, but between now until June 15, the penalty is the 100% tax on the bonus. How it is allocated what is salary and what is bonus is not entirely clear to me. If a player is 16 and would be going to the DSL, counting it all as bonus makes some sense, but for Moncada, if he is going to AAA and then the majors, teams may be able to argue that only a portion is a bonus.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571TR - the "MLB International Signing Period Primer" on SB Nation says "The international signing period runs from July 2 through June 15 of the following season, with a dead period from June 15-July 2, followed by the next signing period". and states the penalties: "Exceed by more than 15 percent: Team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $300K in the following two international signing periods. All overages are taxed at 100 percent." That's what I'm basing my conclusions on.2 months 1 week ago
Tacoma RainBat - I believe the international signing period ends after World Series, and there is no way Moncada becomes a free agent before then... but unfortunately I agree that I doubt Mariner Management will allow Jack to bid on Moncada... especially since it will take a team to break the high limit MLB / International signing rules to sign Moncada.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571And the bright lights of Broadway still have their pull (cf. Maeda, Kenta).2 months 1 week ago
Bat571I think there will be active bidding for Tomas and Moncada that the M's will simply not want to get involved with. And though they want to get under the salary cap, the Yankees are bound and determined to make the most of this year for rebuilding, even with the 100% tax (which threshold they passed long ago). So, though the Yankee money machine has some constraints, I don't believe this is one of them.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571TR - I believe the restrictions start NEXT July 2 - then they're not allowed to sign anyone over $250K for that IFA period. For this year, I believe they're at a 100% tax for any remaining FAs - but the tax doesn't apply to salary limits. So the teams that went over still can go for Moncada. And it's not like the Yankees aren't interested in a SS/2B/3B with some pop!2 months 1 week ago
Tacoma RainBat - Re Moncada... The Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and I believe another team or two are not eligible to sign ANY International players over $250K for the next year... SO the Mariners actually have less competition for him. Plus, Moncada does not necessarily have to play SS / 2B, as his speed would definitely play in the OF - just like Adam Jones... Yes it is a dream that Jack would actually break signing rules like so many other teams have done, especially for an unknown, but maybe, just MAYBE, Jack will be allowed just this once.2 months 1 week ago
SABR MattBat - Hultzen is actually under contract (MLB deal) and, given the status of that contract, he has one more option year. So he can be sent down for one more year before we need to get him on the roster somehow...but I'm guessing we get him on the roster at some point in 2015 if his shoulder holds up2 months 1 week ago
Bat571Since Hultzen went on the 40-man on signing, he's subject to the 4th option year, right? Or do the M's have to keep him on the 25-man next year?2 months 1 week ago
Bat571And, Rick, I was wondering the exact same thing about Hultzen - a stretch in the BP to start off the year might be just the thing. And then a tandem start with Tom Wilhelmson now and again - Earl Weaver-ish.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571The thing with the secondary add is to get a guy whose contract would be flippable if Blash or Jones suddenly figure things out. Rios sounds like he's at the point where a reasonable "make-good season" contract might be accepted - and he wants to play for a contender. Things might line up nicely if the #4 spot gets filled first.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571Moncada is going to be an interesting case because he's subject to the interntional spending limits, Additionally, he'd certainly join a crowded infield picture for the Ms. Actually, now that the Yankees have already taken the penalties for their int'l signings, I'd expect them to go after him big-time.2 months 1 week ago
MtGrizzlyThere are a number of guys that could fill a job share in the OF. Rios, Hunter...for a secondary add there are some options.2 months 1 week ago
SABR MattI'd go for that Rios/Saunders semi-platoon in a heartbeat if we also got a decent DH. If our two big adds are Rios and Butler/Cuddyer...I could live with that.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571And if Van Slyke IS available, substitute his name for Rios' and the game is the same except VS could also rotate with Morrison as needed, which would be a definite plus. I'll say again - dangle Medina & Taylor and see if there's interest. But obviously the Dodgers are going to need a few weeks to ponder their exit.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571I wouldn't mind if the Ms went ahead and signed Rios (once the Rangers decline his option) and made a Saunders/Rios RF pairing until Blash or Wilson is ready IFF they were to sign VMart. Adding a bat of VMart's level means all we need from RF is to lengthen the lineup through 6-7-8 with a mid-.300 OBP and mid-.400 SLG. They could do that and cover for each other's aches and pains. But if VMart doesn't sign here, the Ms need to look at a bat in RF, since Butler would probably be the fall-back DH and hence the 6-7-8 bat. A VMart 3+/$80M signing would solve a lot of problems at the cost of that #21 pick. Any other alternative is going to cost way more.2 months 1 week ago
rick82Speaking of Miller, I wonder if we might see Hultzen take Beimel or Furbush's role in the bullpen as a useful way to limit is innings in 2015 while giving him major league experience.2 months 1 week ago
Tacoma RainThe Mariners need to just go sign Andrew Miller, trade for Van Slyke and Albert Almora, and then go crazy on the international market by spending whatever it takes to sign Kenta Maeda and Yoan Moncada2 months 1 week ago
rick82I am such a fanboy of Michael Saunders that it is probably clouding my judgement, but I would be delighted to keep him on this team as 3-4 OF. I don't want to see him traded. He's very good right now, and I still say he's got serious upside to be even better. I also think the Mariners feel the same way, so I don't worry too much about him getting traded. I don't get Lloyd's issues with him, but I think Jack and Lloyd have come to an agreement that if Michael does regular stretching or something, then Lloyd will move him out of the doghouse. That's how I read those tea leaves anyway. Anyway, I watch Hunter Pence and I think, "Saunders can do that."2 months 1 week ago
SABR MattLast I heard, Elias' injury was not considered season threatening for 2015...they told him to rest it and not do winter ball as was originally planned and then do strength stuff in January. The team, with one V-Mart added would go: Jackson/Saunders-Bloomquist/Cano/Martinez/Seager/Morrison/Zunino/Ackley/Taylor-Miller with a bench that also includes Sucre and Jones, then Hernandez/Iwakuma/Paxton/Walker/Elias with a bullpen of Rodney/Smith/Furbush/Farquhar/Leone/Wilhelmson/Medina with Maurer on standby. I'd like to see the club add a power lefty rather than re-upped with the fluky Beimel and then trade one of its righty bullpen arms (preferably Medina or Leone) along with a prospect for a fourth outfielder of some repute who can get 400 PA and sign a cheap veteran SP for depth as we did with Young to go with the Martinez signing if we can somehow get him.2 months 1 week ago
Tacoma RainBeni - Elias has a moderate strain in his elbow tendon. The mariners are giving him time off, and I believe was to start on conditioning and off season program next week. Not sure when his throwing schedule starts though, as I doubt they want him throwing yet... and since I have no idea if Elias has ever had any elbow strains in the past, I have no idea on how healthy the Mariners expect Elias to be in Spring Training2 months 1 week ago
Tacoma RainGreat stuff again this morning gents... I agree with everything said.... big no to Trumbo, would LOVE V-Mart, but I doubt he comes here unless ties to LLoyd are super strong, which still leaves us needing two bats at a minimum. I am open to suggestions.2 months 1 week ago
benihanaHas anyone heard anything regarding Roenis Elias's elbow? Did we get a prognosis? I've penciled him in as the #5 - but I've heard nothing regarding his health.2 months 1 week ago
benihanaWhile I have been all aboard the Yasmani Tomas train, I would be very happy with an off-season that followed last off-season's script: sign the biggest name FA out there and basically call it a day. Adding V-Mart to this core? I like it. A lot. Means running with an OF of Ackley, Jackson, Saunders, Jones (and maybe some Willie B or B Miller). But you'd still have some flexibility and you'd have tough outs and/or dangerous hitters top to bottom. Jackson, Saunders, Cano, V-Mart, Seager, Morrison, Zunino, Ackley, Taylor? Bench of Sucre, Bloomquist, Miller, Jones... ain't too shabby at all.2 months 1 week ago
DaddyOThat said I seriously doubt the M's will be able to land him UNLESS he has a strong desire to come here. I doubt that he does, but you never know.2 months 1 week ago
DaddyOV.Mart would be such a huge addition batting cleanup that a major secondary add would be much less necessary. No one has been louder than me lobbying for a bona fide right fielder, but if we added V.Mart I'd be happy to forgo a major effort at that position and go with what we had in house or a minor add.2 months 1 week ago
SABR MattTrumbo is exactly the kind of player the Mariners should NEVER get. A sky-high-fly home run hitter with no other marketable skills who is bad at controlling the strike zone and is already showing "old man" skills (more homers than doubles is usually a bad sign for these one-trick ponies). He is the one type of player who would suffer the most from the transition to AL West uber-competitive pitching and Safeco Field.2 months 1 week ago
moethedogThere is every chance that last season was Saunders' outlier season, btw. Heck, his BABIP was .376 vL.2 months 1 week ago
moethedogWill agree that Trumbo is pretty one trick (kinda), but a .250-.300 guy who is pretty good at the one trick that is least available in a MLB bat...and the one the M's despartely a nice player to get. And he would be affordable. Hey, nobody was more "all in" on Van Slyke than I (I think I started the whole deal, or was near the top), and for the right subsidy I'm in on Kemp, too. And I've rolled out Cespedes as a "maybe available guy." And I was all over an available Souza at mid-year. And Grichuk. I'm not married to Trumbo, but for Saunders+ I would happily get engaged. We can replace Saunders fairly easily. Heck, Jones might turn out to be a 100 OPS guy next season. What would a Kelly/Blash or Jones/Blash platoon look like in RF? "Decent" COF's are available as Endy Chavez. 30+ tater, young, RH boppers aren't. I'll take one please, waiter, hold the mayo.2 months 1 week ago
SABR MattGet me VMart and I'll take our cobbled outfielder...maybe you get one more guy so Saunders doesn't have to stay healthy all year but he doesn't have to be a star.2 months 1 week ago
rick82Drayer seriously doubts the M's will go after Tomas, but thinks they'll be serious after VMart.2 months 1 week ago
mojicianGiants and Cards! How cliche. I guess it will be interesting to see what happens when the unstoppable force meets the immovable wall. I think they will annihilate each other and create a supernova of pure energy destroying all organic life except cockroaches.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571Any dealing with the Dodgers will probably start with Taylor, since Hanley's a FA and they don't know if Corey Seager will be a SS or 3B, then a good prospect or two (Guerrero?) and some BP help (Medina?). How far it would need to go for Van Slyke or for Kemp is speculation, especially given Kemp's contract. But my guess is that it won't take Walker, Paxton, Peterson, or Wilson if the Ms are willing to fill the few gaps the Dodgers have and strengthen their farm.2 months 1 week ago
misterjonezTrumbo's one trick just isn't *quite* good enough in my opinion to warrant a major price tag. I would *love* to have a guy like him in the org that is under team control for the next six years at rookie prices, but there's no way I'd give up talent AND a not-inconsiderable salary to acquire him. If he was available as a FA I'd be interested, but not as interested as I would be in Cuddyer (for whom I have serious concerns regarding the Safeco effect) or Van Slyke (who would cost more in talent to acquire than Trumbo, but is certainly worth more as well and would be under team control for quite some time). What about Tomas? Is there any legitimate chance the M's go after him?2 months 1 week ago
SABR MattSorry, no way, Mo. I think your evaluation of Trumbo is way WAY WAAAAAAAYYYY off. He doesn't get on base at all, he strikes out about as often as Zunino, and he is useless on defense and on the bases. Dude is Rob Deer. Those guys are sometimes nice to have, but Michael Saunders is both a better hitter and a better all around player.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571sorry, whose bullpen2 months 1 week ago
Bat571Obviously, the Dodger bullpen needs some help - Kershaw pitched a little too deep, apparently. Let's see, who had the best bullpen in MLB, and who's bullpen seems to be overflowing with live right arms -- oh, yeah, the Ms!2 months 1 week ago
Bat571Well, the Dodger season is over. Now, what will it take to break loose VanSlyke? Given the 2nd half and post-season Kemp had, I'm doubtful he is still available. I'm sure the Dodgers would much rather dump Crawford (who made the last out). But their problem remains - too many OF - highlighted by sitting Puig for this game (he pinch-ran in the 9th).2 months 1 week ago
mojicianThis is some good shtick.2 months 1 week ago
Bat571When you start talking Blash -- his hitting is far better than Trumbo's. Although his BA is ~low, his OBP has consistently been high, and the power probably exceeds Trumbo's. Will it translate to the majors? We don't know, but the rate of improvement over his last few years gives some strong hope. And rather than howitzer shots at the bullpen, Blash's shots are like from a tank main gun and get out in a hurry. Between the two, I'd rather put my money on Blash - or his older brother by a different mother, Matt Kemp.2 months 1 week ago