Trading Places (Part II) ...

...........

In Part I, we took an in depth look at Jack Zduriencik’s Mariner trade history and his approach of roster construction thus far.

Zduriencik talked about his approach to trades with Kevin Calabro on Monday. In talking about the Montero deal, Jack said the following regarding the deal – and in the process discussed his overall approach to any trade that he makes. Boiling it down, here is ...

Jack Zduriencik’s TUNNEL VISION MODEL ...

1) Zduriencik is looking to get players that will be under club control for a long time ... and therefore, part of the Mariners for several years.

2) In any deal, he is looking for multiple players back in any deal that he does.

3) In general, he targets young players with 2 years or less of Major League Service time. In each case (outside of Cliff Lee), he is looking to acquire guys before they hit their peak (prior to age 27).

4) As a result, he is also looking for players who aren’t making anything in terms of salary.

5) He is looking for players who are Major League Ready (or very close to Major League Ready ) who can help the team quickly.

So, despite their recent trade for Jesus Montero, the Mariners are a team that is desperate for power. And speaking of Jesus Montero, his acquisition actually presents a bit of a problem. Though Montero is a catcher by trade, the consistent knock on Montero has been that many scouts and experts out there believe he neither CAN nor SHOULD catch. If it’s determined that he can’t catch … then bottom line, what do you do with Mike Carp?

Mike Carp is a guy who plays First Base … but he is obviously blocked there by Justin Smoak. He doesn’t have the quickness to play Third Base, so you’ve got to look elsewhere. You could look to put Carp in Left Field, but again, many experts have said that would be a recipe for disaster … as the opposition’s runs would pile up clear up to the retractable roof out there. So, if Carp can’t play First Base and you can’t put him in the Outfield … you’d naturally want him to put him in at DH. And if in the end Montero can’t catch … do you honestly want to park a bat like Carp’s on the pine? How do you turn a dilemma like that in to a potential advantage?

So, in terms of what the Mariners might have to offer in a trade, they have …

1B Mike Carp … and a lot of pitching depth.

The Mariners are looking for a Left Handed Power Bat ... but there are only a limited number of spots in the lineup that they can realistically add one at this point in time: Third Base, Left Field, and Center Field.

Is there a team out there that has a Left Handed Power Bat ... at one of those positions of need for the Mariners ... with 2 years or less of Major League Service Time ... and is actually looking for help at First Base and with their pitching? The answer is yes.

If Danny Hultzen comes in and has a good showing in Spring Training, a deal like this is something I could see going down in Spring Training ...

The Mariners send ...

1B Mike Carp (I'd push hard for Mike Carp – they may insist on Justin Smoak, at which point things may fall apart.)

3B Kyle Seager

LHP Jason Vargas (along with cash to help cover contract expenses)

and 2 of these 3 potentially high upside prospects to sweeten the deal (Erasmo Ramirez, Victor Sanchez, and Carter Capps)

to the Indians for …

3B Lonnie Chisenhall

LHP Eric Berger

Why This Would Make Sense for the Mariners ...

Chisenhall is a left handed bat with tremendous power to all fields and (before his promotion to the Indians last year) was ranked by Baseball America as the 25th best prospect overall in all of baseball. He has very good plate discipline and most scouts believe that he'll hit for both average and for power. On Baseball America's 2011 Prospect list, Chisenhall had a 70 power ranking (so tremendous power) and as a 23 year old left handed bat, stands to punish the right field wall at Safeco for years to come. On defense, scouts see him as having a strong arm and enough range to stick at the position. This is potentially a long term solution at the hot corner and some scouts see him as a future All Star 3rd Baseman.

In terms of the M's First Base situation, Justin Smoak becomes the undisputed starter there and this move also allows Jesus Montero to get some playing time there as well. The Mariners would have been facing a bit of a logjam over at First with Carp on the roster, so this helps clear up some of the jam. Smoak and Montero can now trade off playing 1B and DH during the season. Since Mike Carp was out of minor league options, this gives the M’s a chance to give Carp a shot at a full time job without the risk of losing him for nothing. In the batting order, Chisenhall slides in nicely behind Justin Smoak in the batting order – giving the Mariners another left handed power bat.

Vargas’s inclusion in the deal also opens up a spot in the rotation for Danny Hultzen, as Zduriencik in all likelihood may have been looking to trade Vargas once Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker show they are ready. With a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, Hulzten has shown that he won’t be overwhelmed at the Major League Level. Erasmo Ramirez, Victor Sanchez, and Carter Capps are definitely prospects with a lot of upside potential … but as is the case with all prospects (especially pitching prospects) the bust rate is incredibly high. Notice too that the deal does not include any of the Mariners top 3 pitching prospects, whom they desperately want to hang on to. Hultzen, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker -- 3 guys ALL with #1 starting stuff -- are all within a year or so of joining the big club.

Eric Berger is a young, 25 year old left handed starter who has a 90-93 MPH fastball, a good solid 12-6 curveball, and changeup. Before ungoing Tommy John surgery in 2006 when he was a Sophomore in college, his fastball did reach up to 96 MHP, so there is a chance that over time, some of that velocity might return. He has been called a fierce competitor and is a guy who in many ways is a left handed version of Hector Noesi -- he throws strikes and doesn't walk a lot of guys. He spent time last year divided between AA Akron and AAA Columbus, so is right there on the doorstep as someone who could step in and contribute at the Major League level fairly quickly.

In the end, Jack Zduriencik adds young talent at a huge position of need who can potentially be an offensive force for this team. He also gets back a young pitcher to throw in to the mix whose skills dovetail nicely for Safeco Field. Zduriencik adds 2 players at an economical rate who can core contributors on this team for a long time to come.

Why This Makes Sense for the Indians …

Why would the Indians make such a deal in the first place? Bottom line – the Mariners have strengths that match the Indians weaknesses. The Indians traded for Matt LaPorta back in 2008 as part of the C.C. Sabathia deal, hoping he could be their long term answer at First Base. In short, it hasn’t worked out very well and being that LaPorta is 27 years old now – he just might not be the long term answer. The Indians have been looking all winter long for a First Baseman, so the Mariners, who face a bit of a logjam, are a natural fit. Carp, who flashed a great stick and good defense over at 1B in his time with the Mariners, gives the Indians a solid First Baseman who is 2 years younger than LaPorta. Carp has the look of a guy who will hit .280 with 20-25 home runs if given a chance to play on a full time basis.

Kyle Seager, of course, comes in and takes over the spot vacated by Chisenhall's depature and provides them with a reliable, fundamentally sound defensive 3rd Baseman. Though he doesn't have the power of a Chisenhall, he has a good eye, great plate discipline, and will hit for average with good power to the gaps. Over the course of his career at North Carolina, he was known for hitting doubles in the clutch. Long term, Seager projects as a Bill Mueller type who, though not a star, becomes a solid player for this team for a long time to come.

Perhaps the biggest weakness of the Indians last year though was their pitching. The Indians pitching staff finished 22nd out of 30 teams overall in ERA (4.23 ERA overall) … 23rd out of 30 teams in Batting Average Against (.263) … 21st in WHIP (1.21) … and 17th in terms of quality starts with 85. Jason Vargas will make only $4,850,000 this year – fairly cheap for a Left Handed starting pitcher of his caliber. On this staff, Vargas immediately becomes the #2 starting pitcher behind Justin Masterson and Vargas doesn’t become a free agent until 2014. With Fausto Carmona having been arrested in the Dominican Republic, the Indians are going to be especially desperate for pitching. After Carmona's arrest, they moved very quickly to try to compensate by dealing AAA prospect Zach Putnam to the Twins for Kevin Slowey. Even after that trade though, the Indians are still desperate for help with their pitching. The Indians farm system is extremely bare in terms of high end pitching prospects that could help anytime soon. Most of their best prospects are in the low minors, so Erasmo Ramirez, Victor Sanchez, and/or Carter Capps would give the Indians high upside prospects who could additionally help them out within a couple of years time. These pitching prospects are definitely the lynchpin that truly makes this deal go for the Indians.

For a team on as much of a shoestring budget as the Indians are to add this many pieces at positions of need … that can help the club win now and in the future … at a fairly economical rate … will have GM Chris Antonetti doing backflips.

The Indians situation is definitely something that Mariners fans should keep their eyes on. Given their overall situation there in Cleveland, Lonnie Chisenhall is a name that we should keep in the back of our minds going in to Spring Training. He is an All Star just waiting to happen. If there is any way that the Mariners can get their hands on him, he would go a long ways toward solving the power shortage on this team. He would give someone that M's fans could come to the ballpark in eager expectation of launching yet another one in to the seats for years to come.

MA

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Upsides

So...the bet is basically Chisenhall's upside vs. the COMBINED upside of Carp, Seager, and the MiLB bats you send that way.

I'll assume Vargas and Berger are about the same.

I'm not going there. Not until I see where Carp goes this year (personally, I think he a masher whose bat means he must be in the lineup) and just how versatile Seager is (which I think is pretty versatile...he's good).

As well....3B is hardly a place where the M's don't have a bunch of young talent, not counting Seager.

Liddi, Franklin, Catricala.......that's a heck of a list. I'm high on Liddi (he has rare power. Mark Reynolds+ is his template). The world is high on Franklin. Catricala went nuts last year.

Man, I'm watching those guys grow. One of them is going to be a heck of a 3B.

Why trade two guys with nice upsides for another young player at a position you're already loaded with players.

moe

Oh...Martinez, too

Oops...Left out Martinez as a 3B great prospect. Young talented 3B-types we have!

F-mart vs Chisenhall

Age 20:

F-Mart: .290/.320/.425 in AA, .22 batting eye (ouch)

Chiz: .260/.325/.470 in A+/AA, .46 batting eye

On the one hand, Chisenhall has shown more power even by age 20 than F-Mart.

OTOH, Lonnie has a much poorer batting average in most of his seasons. F-Mart is on the upswing stat-wise while being several years younger than league average (one of the youngest everyday players in AA).

I know it sounds like I hate Chisenhall, and I don't. I actually advocated getting him a year or so ago (before we had F-Mart) to fix our 3B issue. I just think that he's a small rawness upgrade over Francisco and a small percentage-to-succeed upgrade over Liddi, and a smaill glove-might-stick-at-3rd upgrade over Catricala.

He's right in the mix and can outperform one of the guys we have there at some things...but not at everything. Catricala and F-Mart are better for-average hitters, Liddi and Catricala can match his power output and walk numbers... He's just another body for Rock-Paper-Scissors-Lizard-Spock.

And we have many of those. For the small-ish upgrade in success chance that he provides I can't see giving away that many assets.

No thanks on Chisenhall

I've been watching Lonnie Chisenhall for years. You want to trade Carp, Seager, Vargas (plus cash), Erasmo AND Carter Capps for an adequate 3B and an average pitcher? Why? Lonnie Chisenhall is about as special as Brad Miller. Or F-Mart. Less than Nick Franklin because Nick has a decent chance to stick at SS.

Do you like his power? Alex Liddi is the same age and has an almost-mirrored stat line. Liddi's power ranks at 70, wouldn't you think? And Chisenhall isn't a better defender than Liddi either (same fielding %, almost identical RF). The only thing Lonnie does better is strike out less. I'm not trading FIVE players plus cash for a less-whifftastic Liddi.

We have the following players aimed at 3B: Francisco Martinez, Alex Liddi, Vinnie Catricala, Steve Proscia.

We have the following players who could be aimed at 3B: Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, Kyle Seager.

So - Lonnie duplicates a skillset we already have in system at the same position, we have more-than-a-handful of good prospects aimed at that position or who could be shifted over, and ALL of them are likely to be at AA or above for 2012.

Have I mentioned that Chisenhall - in a purely offensive sense - is a less-valuable bat than Carp?

He's not gonna out-OPS Mike, so his value comes from being able to play 3B instead of LF/DH which is where Mike's at. And Lonnie's surplus value at third is based purely on whether he can hit and field better there than the other options we have. He might...but not by a lot. And all the guys we have are already in house.

No way do I make this trade, MA. Sorry. 3B is a slim position right now in the minors - there just aren't a lot of guys looking to make an impact there, Rendon aside. Or if they are, they're pretty low on the minor-league rungs.

Lonnie Chisenhall might be one of the better 3B prospects/rookies around now, but that doesn't make him great when compared to those of the past. In a Zimmerman/Wright comparison he looks WEAK.

Chisenhall is not my guy, and especially not at the price you list. It actually hurts our offense to add him that way and doesn't do a thing for our defense.

If Catricala cannot improve his D at 3rd and has to move to LF (assuming his ridiculous offense remains intact), then either he or Carp will need to go. But I haven't seen anything from Carp to say he can't play LF and offensively he's an above-average piece.

I won't trade that away to add a player who duplicates the potential of no less than 3 AAA players that we currently have and reduces our offensive output at the same time.

Chisenhall - interesting unstereotyped suggestion

Woke up this morning to a comprehensive recommendation for an exciting, non-hackneyed trade suggestion and an equally-interesting case against by our minor league guru. Ah, life's good :- )

..........

On Chisenhall, Shandler this winter said "Found his power stroke (4 HR) in September, but it came at the expense of BB% (only 2 walks in Aug/Sept)" ...

Which is the process that Carp was going through, as we last saw him...

"xPX (117, not spectacular - jeff) indicates there is more power lurking, and it could come quickly. Still a long way from his peak: UP 2012: 20 homers."

..........

The year before, HQ (Gordon and Deloney) was remarkably bullish on Chisenhall, calling him a "pure and natural hitter who should hit for high AVG" along with his developing power. They had him as the #2 third base prospect in baseball, after Moustakas.

...........

Mariner Analyst's logic is easy to understand - the premise is to go out and get the best 3B prospect in the game, as MA sees it, and the better since he bats left hand.

Making G-Money's case-against all the more interesting.

Well done, G

I nearly included the nearly identical fld % and range of Liddi and Chisenhall in my original post.

Young 3B-types, we have in spades. All have promise. A couple of them are going to be good, that is a safe wager.

Z should play that bet.

Beyond that, I'm not doing anything with Carp until I see if what he's hinted at is real. I think it is.....and I think we'll see a bit of the Eye that hid last year, but not lose the power.

Minus Guti in CF, I can sit pat with what we have right now (Casper!). Would prefer to see us start the season with Liddi at 3B, BTW.

moe

I just don't think Chisenhall is the best 3B prospect

Or if he is, then it's based on a weak 3B pool of prospects, and it's not by much.

Age 21:

David Wright - .340/.440/.605, .9 EYE (age 22: 310/.390/.520 in MLB)

Chisenhall - .280/.350/.450, .6 EYE (age 22: .270/.350/.430)

Catricala - .300/.390/.490, .5 EYE (age 22: .350/.420/.600)

If you want the guy who took the huge leap forward to massive dominance, it's Catricala, not Chisenhall. Chisenhall hasn't leapt anywhere - he's the same batter he's always been. And at 3B, that's enough to be decent-to-good player.

I just don't see greatness in his game, and I only give up that package for greatness. We'll see if Lonnie proves me wrong, but watching his swing and his work in the field...I'm not nearly as impressed with him as some are.

Carp in LF

I'm willing to see Carp as a bat-first LF for 2012, along with part-time 1B/DH. His fielding in the OF can't get any worse, right? I'd also take the doubles offense described above for Seager. If he does that, why trade him? What we need is to avoid the collective stink of career worst years from Ichiro, Figgins, Olivo, Guti, etc. We need to score 800+ runs, while maintaining decent to dominating pitching.

Other than maybe trading Figgins for a bad contract player with a bat, I don't see much happening.

Doesn't make sense to me either

I think we most definitely need to see a half to full season to see which way things break:

Does Carp continue/improve upon last year at the plate? And will he be at least adequate in LF?

Does Smoak turn into a monster?

Do any of our current crop of 3B prospects grab hold of position?

Does it look like Montero can catch? If not right away, is there the potential for him to become an everday catcher somewhere down the road?

Does Guti rebound? If not, do we look at moving Ackley back out there at the end of Guti's contract and slide Seager to 2B and one of Catricala, FMart, Liddi to 3B?

By the end of this year, I think Z will have a pretty good handle on just what youngsters are going to be a part of this team and where he might need to explore a trade or FA to fill a need.

Life is Good

Every day I wake up and check the site with fingers crossed. The next best thing to a 4 post dissertaion by Jemanji, is a back and forth between 2 well thought out positions on a topic I can spend all day pondering myself. Too often I wake up and find nothing on the site. I for one, am loving the uptick in posts by non Dr. D posters. Don't get me wrong Doc, I've been skulking around your stuff since the AOL Stats days. I even jumped on board the 10 days this was a pay site. I appreciate you baseball knowledge less thank I do your "life is really good if you think about it" attitude, and I really like your baseball knowledge. I just have to say I really enjoy the back and forth, non confrontational baseball discussion of some of your regular posters. There are too many days without posts here and I want to call out for more regular posts here even when the Doc is out making house calls and doesn't have time to drop his knowledge on us suckas.

Return Volley ...

Well G_Money, I know that has been the opinion of some ... but there are those out there who think Chisenhall is going to be a pretty special player. Depending on who you talk to, I may have actually overplayed my hand in terms of the deal that I proposed.

I wanted a scout's honest opinion on this, so ended up emailing Jason Churchill -- just to get his take. For those who might not be aware, Jason knows his stuff -- and even writes for ESPN every now and then. So, here is what Churchill had to say regarding the whole idea. Originally, I bounced the idea off him of possibly getting Tony Wolters back in the deal as well. Here is what he had to say to all of that ...

Churchill:

That offer is very very lite on the M's end.
Carp is a C+ player at best. Vargas makes 4.5 mil and gets pricier next year and is a No. 4 starter. Seager MAY be an average second baseman, but he may be a reserve or utility player, too.

Chisenhall is a potential all-star third baseman. No chance the M's get him from Cle for that package, let alone getting Wolters and Berger, too.

I don't even believe the Tribe would deal Wolters straight up for Carp, Vargas and Seager.
To get Chisenhall, Seattle would have to part with Paxton, Walker or Hultzen.

I shot him back the following response, just to get further clarification and to tweak things a bit ...

MA:

Thanks for the response Jason. I was right then that scouts think Chisenhall is that good. OK, then what about a potential deal that didn't involve Wolters -- tweaked to something like this?
The Mariners send ...

1B Mike Carp
3B Kyle Seager
LHP Jason Vargas (and cash to cover contract expenses)
Erasmo Ramirez AND Carter Capps

to the Indians for ...
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
LHP Eric Berger

Can you envision any possible way that such a deal would be possible for the M's WITHOUT giving up a Paxton, Walker, or Hultzen? Is there any kind of equitable deal that you could construct in your mind -- not involving those 3 or Smoak that has Chisenhall in a Mariners uniform?

And Churchill's response back to me ...

Churchill:

Like I said, you want Chisenhall, Seattle has to give up one of their top 4-5 prospects at the very least. Hultzen, Walker, Franklin, Paxton... Carp is NOT considered an everyday player at this stage. Seager, either. Vargas is a back-end starter. Capps is an arm most team fear is a reliever and Ramirez is a back-end starter. So it's a bunch of junk for a potential all-star.

Just one scout's opinion for sure and if you believe him ... Lonnie Chisenhall is a guy IMO that if there is any way the Mariners COULD get their hands on without giving up Hultzen, Paxton, Walker, or Franklin -- they most certainly should because he is already AT the Major League Level. And if there is one piece of advice I can give to we fans regarding Minor League Prospects in general it's this -- never fear giving up birds in the bush ... for birds in the hand. Now am I saying be stupid and start giving away every high end prospect in the system? Absolutely not. That would be foolish -- unless you're getting (what you perceive to be) an equal or better return on what you're giving up. What I am saying is this --- in the vast majority of cases, those prospects that we fans believe are so invaluable ... will never live up to expectations.

Teams do value young, club-controlled talent

VERY much. I don't think what you offered to the Indians would be viewed as a steal by them by any means, but...

Carp - 1 WAR player last year (2 WAR in a full season at that level)

Vargas - 1.5 WAR player last year ( 2+ in 2010)

Seager - 1 WAR player in 200 PAs.

Carter Capps IMO will be a reliever, and Erasmo is a back-end starter in the way that Vargas is a back-end starter (potentially).

So it depends whether getting Chisenhall's cheap, club controlled bat at 3B is more important than having 3 or 4 of those guys on the big-league squad. Lonnie and Seager had very comparable seasons last year. Seager's been the better minor leaguer, and they're a year apart in age.

What is the expected difference in performance between Chisenhall and Seager? Yes, Seager would be more valuable at 2B than he is at 3rd...but not by a ton. Getting a good 3B is hard. Chisenhall certainly has more HR power, but he swaps em for fewer doubles and a lower average. If Seager is a 40 / 10 man with doubles and HRs, then Chisenhall is a 30 / 20, and will be on base less than Seager with fewer singles.

For me, the difference between the two is not worth 5 years of club control on Carp's 2 WAR, a couple of years of Vargas being worth his contract, and 2 decent minor league pitchers.

Not when I have 5 other guys ready to jump in if Seager falters at 3rd (or we move him for something else). If we had every position stocked and needed to ditch some players before we lost em in the Rule 5, maybe. We're still trying to find out which talents we want to use.

But you'll notice over the years that Churchill and I don't seem to evaluate players the same way. He believed Franklin was the worst draftpick in the first round, when I thought he was the best SS in it. Catricala's been intriguing to me from day one, and dismissed until 3 months into 2011 by Jason. I thought Balentien had a good shot to be an everyday LF and Dorman was one step from big-league success, which are claims Jason would never make.

We look for different things in prospects, which is a good thing. When we disagree, then you can line up the arguments for and against and better triangulate what you want to believe. When we agree then maybe that adds some weight (to his side - he's the one with the extra contacts and work, I just do this for fun and for an alternate view so mine don't have that weight).

I agree with him that the INDIANS believe their 3B is a future All-Star, or certainly that they've sold him to their fans that way. So they're not parting with him for anything less than an All-Star or two in return.

But as I said, I like Franklin better, and our arms better, and since I think F-Mart is Jorge Cantu that means that Chisenhall needs to be enough better than Cantu to make adding Carp + Vargas + Erasmo + Seager + Capps to the deal worth it.

To me, he ain't. Maybe I'm wrong, but while I like him more than what we've got at the position, it's not enough. It's a lot to pay for 10 HRs a year, IMO, since several of those players could go in a different deal for a less-crowded position. I don't spend all my depth (2 back-end starters + a major-league IF plus an average 1B/LF) on an adequate 3B.

Figgins and his horribleness doesn't make me flinch that far in response, I guess. Of course, if Chisenhall turns out to be a David Wright level contributor instead of a Russ Davis one then I might be wishing I was on your side. ;) If Seager turns into Brian Roberts...

Then I'll be perfectly happy with my side.

The plot thickens! :- )

... as Mariner Analyst, unwittingly, positions Jason Churchill against G-Moneyball. mwahahahah. At SSI, this is the writing-comp to a USSM reader innocently positioning me against Jay Yencich, or Geoff Baker against Cameron ...

For sure we SSI readers will take Gordon over ANYbody, but Jason's style is definitely geared toward the "Baseball America" tools favorite with the pretty swing and the dubious results.

JAC's comment does reflect Cleveland's love of Chisenhall (1st-round pick of a JuCo player and rushing him to the bigs) and the tools scouts' priorities (remember Brad Pitt: "If he has such a great swing, why doesn't he hit, then?").

Here is an interesting breakdown of Chisenhall's 2011 travails -- swinging under FB's a foot high, and swinging over changeups a foot low. He is young to be sure, but the results are a bit alarming.

.............

Where Dr. D is concerned ... he's always skeptical of "gorgeous swing" scout faves who have never *flashed* a Smoak- or Montero-type result, and Dr. D would ask Jason to check Carp's vs. Chisenhall's trade values at the end of the 2012 season ... :- )

..............

That said, the spirit of JAC's remarks are clear, and suffice to establish that you have a lot of baseball pro's on your side of this debate, MA. Though I might wind up siding with G on this one, your premise is obviously reasonable, MA.

Awesome conversation starter.

::golfclap::

Churchill

Sorry...I have to say this...JAC knows his stuff regarding the farm, but he is world famous for intentionally catastrophically undervaluing Mariner prospects to avoid cheering in the press box. His opinion on this deal matters a good deal less to me than the opinion of our local blog kingpin here when it comes to evaluating trade offers and discussing Mariner prospects in particular. But...that may just be my opinion.

Chisenhall/Seager/Carp

Chisenhall really has never lit up a MiLB season...well he hit some homers at A+. His age 22 MLB debut was .255-.284-.415

Seager lit up A+, AA AND AAA, despite the fact that he went from Rookie ball to the majors in less than 3 seasons. His age 23 MLB debut was .258-.312-.379. I'm not seeing a ton of difference. Certainly not enough to sell the farm for Chisenhall. As for Carp, I think the fact that he changed his game between '09 and '10 and then had a great leap, with that new game, between '10 and '11 is something very interesting and telling. He retooled....and it worked. Let's see what one more year of that game brings. Lots, I think.

value of ownership ...

A psychological reality - (supported by much research and cited in many books, especially in regards to economics) - is that we value things we "own" more than those we don't.

EVERY fan who follows the minors will 'tend' to over-value their own prospects, regardless of the historic results, compared to other clubs. This is not only psychologically valid, it is also generally a matter of practical limits. Unless you're getting paid by BA or someone to evaluate ALL farm clubs, a fan will naturally have far more knowledge about his own club's farm.

Based on posts from the past 5 years, I would guess posts about prospects either agree with independent assessments --- or, when there is a divergence, the skew is over 90% about who is undervalued by the independent arbiter.

When BA says Halman or Triunfel is a star in the making, fans agree. When BA ignores Carp or Seager, fans will give very rational arguments on why BA is wrong. But, very seldom does somebody go -- BA has Smoak as the #13 spec in baseball -- they're delusional. So, someone paid to cover Seattle attempting to fight against that trend not only is attempting to do his job better - in all likelihood, he IS doing his job better. (And for a club that hasn't produced a single .800 in a decade from its farm system - there has been very, very little reason to be optimistic for a long, long time).