Trading Places (Part I) ...

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Jack Zduriencik
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KingCorran's picture

see why Z wouldn't trade one of the Big Three MiLBers for Stanton if the opportunity presented.  Cost controlled, young, superstar-upside bat?  That's the Pineda trade in a nutshell.

If he's worried about arms at that point (hah!), Oswalt is still out there... and we don't HAVE to rid ourselves of Vargas.  Heck, there's plenty of arms in our minors after Hultzen/Paxton/Walker... you figure one of the 6-10 names I keep hearing bandied about would stick at #5 SP behind the best 4 of Felix/Hultzen/Walker/Vargas/Iwakuma/Noesi.

If not - the one area FAs *will* be showing up in the next two offseasons is in the realm of top SPs.  There won't, on the other hand, be any Mike Stantons or Alex Gordons* to be had.  I think Z *has* to trade top prospect arms for parallel top prospect (or near-rookie) bats if he can.

*admittedly a little further from near-rookie status than Stanton

G_Money's picture
Submitted by G_Money on

There are precious few bats worth a top-3 pick at this point (ie, before the college and HS seasons improve stock), but there are several arms.

I expect us to draft another arm - which I kinda hate - but that's an instant replacement for whomever is lost.  If you can pry Logan Morrison or Mike Stanton free with a package, I can see doing that.

I don't know how feasible it is now that Pineda is gone.  He'd the arm I would have thought could do it.

Unless we're back to talking about trading Felix, which we're not gonna do.  With another year to season and show their promise, maybe some of our blue-chip arms can be combined to make the right price for the Marlins.  Paxton could be awesome in the bigs this year and then get flipped, because we replaced him in the draft.

But I don't think you can call that until you see how our minor league season pans out.  If Catricala and Franklin both mash, where would you add hitting?

1B - Smoak

2B - Ackley

3B - Catricala (fingers crossed)

SS - Franklin

C/DH - Montero

LF/DH - Carp

That basically leaves you RF and CF as significantly upgradable positions.  If Guti is back to health or Wells/Trayvon can cover center, then that leaves RF - assuming Ichiro is gone.

Stanton would make this offense practically perfect, in terms of performers who are above-average offensively for their positions.  But unlike Montero he's not blocked at most positions and the Marlins need offense as well as pitching, so trading one to get the other doesn't really help them much.

I just can't see what we could currently offer being enough. Again, unless it's Felix.

~G

Grumpy's picture
Submitted by Grumpy on

Now that Prince Fielder is off to Mo Town (Freud would have had a hey day with that one),

 

Sometimes 214 million dollars is just 214 million dollars.

Sandy's picture
Submitted by Sandy on

Always love reading your analysis, MA.  Not only is it top notch ... you're the only regular poster who makes my own efforts seem concise.  :)

Agree with basically everything you say.  But I think there is one element missing, and it is the one that I believe ultimately separates the cream GMs from the mediocre ones ...

It matters where you WERE.

It is my belief that Jack's every move, (even the Lee deal) was a direct consequence of where the club was both at the major and minor league level when he arrived.  While he *may* have made all those moves because of a pre-disposition or assumption about optimal lineup construction ... or, his decisions were pushed by where the club was.

It isn't there any more.

When Jack arrived, he had a club with two young guys in the middle infield, who were judged to have weak gloves, and had mediocre bats for their positions as well.  They had both been up long enough that it was fairly obvious the upside was dubious.  The farm was effectively devoid of offensive talent.  The MLB roster had essentially no tradeable commodities, (Ichiro being untouchable), except Putz, (who he traded at first opportunity).

Jack was faced with the task of simultaneously stocking an empty farm system AND supplying a major league lineup that wasn't a complete laughingstock.  He got lucky in the Griffey year ... but largely failed on the second (less important) axis.

Today, the club actually has an interesting group of young guys with a teensy bit of MLB experience ... and a farm system that is in much better shape than when he arrived, (though with all the kids in the Bigs, the farm is unavoidably thin on position players).

Jack couldn't have traded multiple prospects for a big name when he arrived, because they'd all been sent out in the Bedard deal.  When you consider how little he actually got back for guys like Wlad and Clement, nobody could have been making such moves.  Jack didn't have a Fister to trade until after the club turned him into a success.  Same with Pineda.

Oh ... he might have been able to trade away Triunfel or Halman when they were topping the Mariner prospect rankings ... but considering where they stand today, you would've been dealing for a Ryan Ludwick ... not a Prince Fielder.

If Jack is as good as we hope (and I suspect), he is NOT married to just one type of deal.  His trading patterns will likely begin to change once he has a better idea of which kids are worth keeping.  Mind you, it's possible that there could be one more year of mining for prospects ... and if so, the most likely route would be a repeat of the Cliff Lee path ... essentially buying some more specs with a 4 month rental of a name pitcher, (Oswalt?).

I could see him continuing to clean the Bavasi specs away (Triunfel?), but at this point, Jack's moves and drafting have shoved most of the older specs down the list so much, I doubt there is much value left -- which makes me think the rest of the roster filling moves for 2012 are more likely to pushed with paycheck, (throw away specs for someone else's salary problem).

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