...........
Where do we go now?
Where do we go?
Oh, Whoa, Whoa, Whoa
Where do we go now?
No, no, no, no, no, no
Sweet child,
Sweet child of mine.
For many Mariner fans, that has become their theme song that Prince Fielder has found $214 million reasons not to come to Seattle. Moving forward, how do the Mariners honestly look to improve an offense that for second year in a row, was one of the worst offenses in the history of baseball? The 2010 Mariners scored a grand total of 513 Runs - worst run production total by any team since the advent of the DH in 1973. The 2011 Mariners improved slightly by scoring 556 runs (the fewest since the 1992 Dodgers) ... and once again finished dead last (30th out of 30 Teams – AL and NL) in every other major offensive statistical category as well -- Team Batting average (.233) ... On Base Percentage (.292) ... and Slugging Percentage (.348).
How do you honestly look to improve that?
Sure, Jesus Montero is obviously a huge inoculation for this team to fight against tetanus of the bats … but even with the progressive improvement that you’d expect out of young players like Justin Smoak, Mike Carp, and others … the Mariners are going to need a lot more Hanses and Franzes to Pump this team’s Power Up.
Now that Prince Fielder is off to Mo Town (Freud would have had a hey day with that one), we officially turn our attention to the one arena left that does hold some hope for improving a historically bad offense --- the trade market.
In discussions of possible trades that this team might look to make, Mariner fans over the past several days have suggested to me names like Mike Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, and even Mark Reynolds. While Reynolds is admittedly a bit of an intriguing name IF the M's could get the Orioles to take their own bag of fungoes back in Chone Figgins ... I personally don't see either Mike Stanton or Hanley Ramirez as situations that could actually come to fruition -- especially with Jack Zduriencik. Here's why I say that ...
Now Mike Stanton is certainly a special player -- no doubt about it, and one that would definitely interest Jack Zduriencik. During the Hot Stove League, Zduriencik said that they targeted 4 guys that they were willing to give Pineda up for and I'm fairly sure that Stanton would be on that list. The problem with trying to acquire Stanton is ... at this point who are you going to give up to get him. Remember, this is a guy that a lot of experts are putting in the same category as Jesus Montero. So, it's going to take a really special player or package of players to get him. Kyle Seager isn't going to cut it. Neither is Casper Wells. Mike Carp isn't going to work in that scenario as a trade chip because the Marlins already have (what I'd say is a pretty comparable 1B) in Gabby Sanchez. So, who are you going to give them? Unless the conversation starts with someone like James Paxton or Taijuan Walker, the General Manager of the Marlins Larry Beinfest is going to politely say, "Thanks for calling" and hang up on you. Special players like that require special pieces to get them. Right now, I don't see Zduriencik parting with any of the top 3 (Hultzen, Paxton, or Walker) because they are absolutely KEY to what he is trying to accomplish. Zduriencik said exactly that is his interview with Kevin Calabro a couple of days ago ...
Zduriencik: "And I had an opportunity this winter. I could have put together some really nice packages – trade Franklin, Walker, Paxton – you know, to bring a couple of pieces in. But that didn’t make sense – cause we’re not there yet. You know, we are not where the right time to strike is. We’ve talked about a foundation. We’ve talked about creating one. We’re doing that right now ..."
Source:
Jack Zduriencik with 710 ESPN's Kevin Calabro -- 1/23/12
On Hanley Ramirez, I also don't see that one either. To show you why I say that, let's take a look at Zduriencik's trade history ...
J.J. Putz Trade -- 12/11/2008 ...
Seattle Trades J.J. Putz along with ...
Sean Green
Jeremy Reed
Luis Valbuena
in a 3 way deal with Cleveland and the Mets ...
Mariners get back ...
Franklin Gutierrez -- [Service at Time of Trade: 2.5 Years / Salary at time of Trade: $455,000]
Jason Vargas [Service Time at Time of Trade: 2 Years / Salary at time of Trade: $412,500]
Mike Carp [Service Time at Time of Trade: at AAA / Salary at time of Trade: NA]
Ezequiel Carrera [Service Time at Time of Trade: at AA / Salary at time of Trade: NA ]
Endy Chavez [Service Time at Time of Trade: 8 Years / Salary at time of Trade: $1,800,000]
Maikel Cleto [Service Time at Time of Trade: at A Ball / Salary at time of Trade: NA ]
Aaron Heilman [Service Time at Time of Trade: 6 Years / Salary at time of Trade: $1,200,000]
Zduriencik turned around and traded Heilman to the Cubs on January 28th for ...
Ronny Cedeno [Service Time at Time of Trade: 2.5 years / Salary at time of Trade: $822,500]
Garrett Olson [Service Time at Time of Trade: had appeared in 26 games in Baltimore / Salary at time of Trade: NA ]
Brandon Morrow Trade -- 12/23/2009 ...
Seattle trades Brandon Morrow to the Blue Jays for ...
Brandon League [Service Time at Time of Trade: 6 Years / Salary at time of Trade: $640,000]
Johermyn Chavez [Service Time at Time of Trade: at High A Ball / Salary at time of Trade: NA]
Cliff Lee Trade -- 7/9/2010 ...
Seattle trades Cliff Lee to the Rangers for ...
Justin Smoak [Service Time at Time of Trade: 1.5 Years / Salary at time of Trade: $400,000]
Blake Beavan [Service Time at Time of Trade: at AA Ball / Salary at time of Trade: NA]
Josh Lueke [Service Time at Time of Trade: at AA Ball / Salary at time of Trade: NA]
Matthew Lawson [Service Time at Time of Trade: at AA Ball / Salary at time of Trade: NA]
Doug Fister Trade -- 7/30/2011 ...
Seattle trades Doug Fister along with David Pauley to the Tigers for ...
Casper Wells [Service Time at Time of Trade: 1.5 Years / Salary at time of Trade: $400,000]
Charlie Furbush [Service Time at Time of Trade: 0.5 Years / Salary at time of Trade: NA]
Chance Ruffin [Service Time at Time of Trade: 20.4 ML Innings / Salary at time of Trade: $400,000]
Francisco Martinez [Service Time at Time of Trade: at AA Ball / Salary at time of Trade: NA]
Josh Lueke Trade -- 11/27/2011 ...
Seattle trades Josh Lueke to the Rays for ...
John Jaso [Service Time at Time of Trade: 2 Years / Salary at time of Trade: $427,200]
Michael Pineda Trade -- 1/23/12 ...
Seattle trades Michael Pineda and Jose Campos to the Yankees for ...
Jesus Montero [Service Time at Time of Trade: Less than .05 Year / Salary at time of Trade: $400,000]
Hector Noesi [Service Time at Time of Trade: 56.1 ML Innings / Salary at time of Trade: $400,000]
The first Cliff Lee deal (in which Zduriencik got him from the Phillies) is the only one in his tenure in which the Z Man traded multiple prospects for an established veteran Superstar.
The Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley deal was obviously a bad salary for bad salary swap.
Outside of those 2 deals, Do you see a pattern?
The vast majority of players that Jack has acquired in his deals have had 2 years or less of Major League Service time … AND none of them (outside of Cliff Lee, who was making $9 million at the time) have been high salary guys.
Zduriencik talked about his approach to trades with Kevin Calabro a couple of days ago as well. In talking about the Montero deal, Jack said the following ...
Zduriencik: “Well, I mean I do think that we’ve added guys here – we got 4 players in return in the previous deal we did. Um, that’s the thing we’ve been talking about all along – trying to get multiple players in any deal that we do that we’re going to have for a long time. So, you know, at that time we were able to acquire a Justin Smoak, a Blake Beavan, um – now Jaso is part of that deal – technically he went for another player. So, you know we do have 3 players on our club for a player that we traded – and now we have 2 more players on a deal for another player that we traded. …”
Source:
Jack Zduriencik with 710 ESPN's Kevin Calabro -- 1/23/12
So, in looking to do a deal, Jack's criteria at this time is pretty clear. Call it -- Jackie Z's TUNNEL VISION MODEL ...
1) Zduriencik is looking to get players that will be under club control for a long time ... and therefore, part of the Mariners for several years.
2) In any deal, he is looking for multiple players back in any deal that he does.
3) In general, he targets young players with 2 years or less of Major League Service time. In each case (outside of Cliff Lee), he is looking to acquire guys before they hit their peak (prior to age 27).
4) As a result, he is also looking for players who aren’t making anything in terms of salary.
5) He is looking for players who are Major League Ready (or very close to Major League Ready ) who can help the team quickly.
So, how does Hanley Ramirez stack up against that?
Hanley Ramirez’s contract situation ...
2012 -- (age 28) $15 million
2013 -- (age 29) $15.5 million
2014 -- (age 30) $16 million
Well, Ramirez is already 28 years old (so is AT his peak in terms of performance) … Ramirez is making big bucks … and more importantly, he will be a free agent in 3 years. With the guys that Jack has generally targeted thus far, we’re talking more like 5, 6 or more years before they hit free agency. AND it most certainly would be expensive to get a Hanley Ramirez on top of that. If Zduriencik were to call and inquire about Ramirez, I’m sure that like with Stanton, the asking price would start with Hultzen, Paxton, and/or Walker – at which point Zduriencik and Beinfest would exchange pleasantries and hang up the phone.
Zduriencik has talked about doing the “Big Deal” at the right time -- I just don’t see that kind of a move being Jackie Z’s M.O. at this time.
Young … talented … ready to help now … inexpensive … and nowhere near the Greener pastures $$$ of free agency. That is the battle cry of Jackie Z right now.
Where might the Mariners look to actually turn and do a deal that would meet those criteria? We’ll explore one possible scenario in Part II ...
Comments
I don't
see why Z wouldn't trade one of the Big Three MiLBers for Stanton if the opportunity presented. Cost controlled, young, superstar-upside bat? That's the Pineda trade in a nutshell.
If he's worried about arms at that point (hah!), Oswalt is still out there... and we don't HAVE to rid ourselves of Vargas. Heck, there's plenty of arms in our minors after Hultzen/Paxton/Walker... you figure one of the 6-10 names I keep hearing bandied about would stick at #5 SP behind the best 4 of Felix/Hultzen/Walker/Vargas/Iwakuma/Noesi.
If not - the one area FAs *will* be showing up in the next two offseasons is in the realm of top SPs. There won't, on the other hand, be any Mike Stantons or Alex Gordons* to be had. I think Z *has* to trade top prospect arms for parallel top prospect (or near-rookie) bats if he can.
*admittedly a little further from near-rookie status than Stanton
Don't forget the 2012 draft
There are precious few bats worth a top-3 pick at this point (ie, before the college and HS seasons improve stock), but there are several arms.
I expect us to draft another arm - which I kinda hate - but that's an instant replacement for whomever is lost. If you can pry Logan Morrison or Mike Stanton free with a package, I can see doing that.
I don't know how feasible it is now that Pineda is gone. He'd the arm I would have thought could do it.
Unless we're back to talking about trading Felix, which we're not gonna do. With another year to season and show their promise, maybe some of our blue-chip arms can be combined to make the right price for the Marlins. Paxton could be awesome in the bigs this year and then get flipped, because we replaced him in the draft.
But I don't think you can call that until you see how our minor league season pans out. If Catricala and Franklin both mash, where would you add hitting?
1B - Smoak
2B - Ackley
3B - Catricala (fingers crossed)
SS - Franklin
C/DH - Montero
LF/DH - Carp
That basically leaves you RF and CF as significantly upgradable positions. If Guti is back to health or Wells/Trayvon can cover center, then that leaves RF - assuming Ichiro is gone.
Stanton would make this offense practically perfect, in terms of performers who are above-average offensively for their positions. But unlike Montero he's not blocked at most positions and the Marlins need offense as well as pitching, so trading one to get the other doesn't really help them much.
I just can't see what we could currently offer being enough. Again, unless it's Felix.
~G
Now that Prince Fielder is
Now that Prince Fielder is off to Mo Town (Freud would have had a hey day with that one),
Sometimes 214 million dollars is just 214 million dollars.
the sixth element
Always love reading your analysis, MA. Not only is it top notch ... you're the only regular poster who makes my own efforts seem concise. :)
Agree with basically everything you say. But I think there is one element missing, and it is the one that I believe ultimately separates the cream GMs from the mediocre ones ...
It matters where you WERE.
It is my belief that Jack's every move, (even the Lee deal) was a direct consequence of where the club was both at the major and minor league level when he arrived. While he *may* have made all those moves because of a pre-disposition or assumption about optimal lineup construction ... or, his decisions were pushed by where the club was.
It isn't there any more.
When Jack arrived, he had a club with two young guys in the middle infield, who were judged to have weak gloves, and had mediocre bats for their positions as well. They had both been up long enough that it was fairly obvious the upside was dubious. The farm was effectively devoid of offensive talent. The MLB roster had essentially no tradeable commodities, (Ichiro being untouchable), except Putz, (who he traded at first opportunity).
Jack was faced with the task of simultaneously stocking an empty farm system AND supplying a major league lineup that wasn't a complete laughingstock. He got lucky in the Griffey year ... but largely failed on the second (less important) axis.
Today, the club actually has an interesting group of young guys with a teensy bit of MLB experience ... and a farm system that is in much better shape than when he arrived, (though with all the kids in the Bigs, the farm is unavoidably thin on position players).
Jack couldn't have traded multiple prospects for a big name when he arrived, because they'd all been sent out in the Bedard deal. When you consider how little he actually got back for guys like Wlad and Clement, nobody could have been making such moves. Jack didn't have a Fister to trade until after the club turned him into a success. Same with Pineda.
Oh ... he might have been able to trade away Triunfel or Halman when they were topping the Mariner prospect rankings ... but considering where they stand today, you would've been dealing for a Ryan Ludwick ... not a Prince Fielder.
If Jack is as good as we hope (and I suspect), he is NOT married to just one type of deal. His trading patterns will likely begin to change once he has a better idea of which kids are worth keeping. Mind you, it's possible that there could be one more year of mining for prospects ... and if so, the most likely route would be a repeat of the Cliff Lee path ... essentially buying some more specs with a 4 month rental of a name pitcher, (Oswalt?).
I could see him continuing to clean the Bavasi specs away (Triunfel?), but at this point, Jack's moves and drafting have shoved most of the older specs down the list so much, I doubt there is much value left -- which makes me think the rest of the roster filling moves for 2012 are more likely to pushed with paycheck, (throw away specs for someone else's salary problem).