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My take on Z and his grand plans for the Ms.

1) Upon arrival, Seattle was an absolute disaster.  Minors were utterly empty offensively and most of the pitching talent was years away.  Payroll was out of whack and the club had zero upside youth beyond Lopez.  I think Jack knew from day one, it was going to take 3 years (minimum) just to clear away the debris from the previous regime and begin constructing an actual farm system.  But, I think he also understood that under no circumstances whatsoever was he allowed to say so in public.  I believe he had a 5-7 year plan from day one and accepted that he had to sell that the truth was anything but that.

2) I think the Putz trade was all about priming the minors pump.  Guti was good enough to sell the "idea" that he was part of a quick-fix effort.  Branyan, Griffey and Sweeney all helped make 2009 a year 400% beyond expectation.  But, Guti was the only guy on the roster likely to stick around for any length of time.  I think after watching Yuni and Lopez in 2009, Jack understood that Lopez and Yuni were likely on the way out, but the minors were no help. 

3) I think Jack realized that the strength of the farm was completely tied to pitching.  I think he realized the farm was capable of developing arms, which is why he fished so heavily for external borderline arms.  I think he understood that the had a bloated payroll and that every deal he was making was "primarily" intended to move the club toward a youth-dominated roster by 2012.  I believe he understood when he added Cliff Lee that it was unlikely that club could compete.  But, he also knew that Cliff Lee could be moved at the deadline for TOP offensive prospects, while the club could replace the low level arms that it took to get him.

4) His one big mistake (Figgins) was pushed by a need to replace the much more expensive Beltre in the hope of buffing the OBP of a club that was dead last in getting on base, and knowing with certainty there was nobody anywhere on the farm that was going to deliver the skills that Figgins had previously demonstrated in the next half decade.  Of course, if Z doesn't sign ANY contracts of more than a year, it gets too obvious that he's just biding time until the farm starts producing.  Figgins was a crumb to feed the illusion that the club actually had a chance to be competitive without a complete rebuild from scratch.  His multiple position flexiblity also played into the script of rebuilding via the farm - since the highest priority when doing a 100% youth rebuild is that you must keep EVERY position open and available for any surprise plateau leap from the farm.

5) Getting Ackley was a gift from heaven.  But, since his power ceiling is considered low, and the club had zero power anywhere on the club or on the farm, and Guti was already expected to hold down CF for several more years, the move to second was needed to maximize his eventual value, while Z worked to identify and pull in more near ready offensive prospects.  He obviously got Carp at the same time he got Guti, but the Bavasi leavings were imploding right left and sideways, so Jack traded away what he could, (Wlad, Clement), while moving in guys with some evidence they had the capacity to learn.

6) The Smoak deal was actually the first truly major offensive prospect he landed, (much, much higher prospect bat than either Guti or Carp).  But, he needed the time to do the deals to snag fungible pieces to actually make such a deal.  I think Jack understood that 2011 was going to end with a roster dominated by youth, even though it began with one guy under age 30 in the opening day lineup.  I believe Jack's experience with Milwaukee allowed him to understand that there was going to be a LOT of trial and error involved and that was one of the reasons Bradley and Langerhans were dropped so swiftly. 

7) While Z has had a number of failures in the pitching department, (French, Snell, Olson), I believe he understood that there was enough depth and development skill that given enough bodies, the farm could churn out guys like Fister and Pauley with reasonable certainty of at least getting "competent" performance, (aided by the park).  And, of course, he had guys like Paxton and Hultzen waiting in the wings.  Jack from day one has believed strongly in the numbers game.  If you have 2 or 3 or 4 prospects at a given position, you can get multiple shots at rolling Yahtzee.

8) Clearly, in taking Smoak ahead of Montero, Jack believes strongly in Smoak's upside.  While I don't share the enthusiasm of many about Smoak, I certainly expect (and hope) I can be wrong on this call.  But Jack didn't give up on Montero.  The fact Jack dealt Pineda for Montero and he took Smoak ahead of Montero certainly suggests the Z-man is expecting Smoak to be a star at first base. 

9) I think Jack likely made a decent offer for Prince, (knowing it wouldn't be enough for Boras), just to drive up the price a bit for the competition.  I think Jack made his commitment to 1B when he acquired Smoak, and Justin has not had nearly enough time to write off that pick just yet.  I think there was zero chance Fielder was going to accept a pure DH slot, (the fact Detroit is moving Cabrera supports this notion), and there was no chance Fielder was going to supplant Smoak.  But, I think Jack understood from day one that when you're building via youth, you need maximum flexibility to swap players out because prospect development and performance is such an imperfect science. 

10) For 2012 ... I expect lineup volatility.  I think there will both highs and lows in regards to the performance of the youth.  But, unlike years past, the club will have enough near ready talent that regardless of who fails, the club will adapt "mostly" from within.  But, by the end of the season, the team will have chosen the talent it intends to keep and the talent it intends to deal.  I expect before 2013, there will be a couple of significant, (but not on Fielder level), veteran bats added to the mix for 2013.  I expect, just like Pineda and Fister were surprise depatures, that within the next 12 months Z will deal away at least one of the young bats for veteran help.

I think 2012 will be a bumpy ride, but that by the end of it, at least three regulars will have been chosen to lead the team for the next 5-10 years.  I think Seager is the most underrated of the prospects and Smoak the most over-rated.  But, I completely understand that predicting results for any of these guys is incredibly difficult. 

But, I think ultimately, the club will finish near .500, but with a much clearer understanding of the exact pieces needed to move from 77 to 87 wins.