.........
All our times have come
Here but now they're gone
Seasons don't fear the reaper
Nor do the wind, the sun or the rain
We can be like they are
Come on baby... Don't fear the Reaper
Baby take my hand... Don't fear the Reaper
We'll be able to fly... Don't fear the Reaper
Baby I'm your man...
That’s easier said than done for Mariners and their fans because for this team … the buzzards most certainly have been circling overhead for the past several years.
The Mariners lost 101 games in 2008 … lost 101 games again in 2010 … and lost 95 more last season. And since the 2002 Season, the Mariners have seen a lot of losing at the ticket window too, as 1,644,161 fans less fans showed up for games last season than they did back in 2002 – a drop in attendance of 47%.
Over that time frame, the Mariners offense has the embodiment of the walking dead – being amongst some of the worst offenses in the history of baseball ...
The 2010 Mariners scored a grand total of 513 Runs - worst run production total by any team since the advent of the DH in 1973. The 2011 Mariners improved slightly by scoring 556 runs (the fewest since the 1992 Dodgers) ... and once again finished dead last (30th out of 30 Teams – AL and NL) in every other major offensive statistical category as well -- Team Batting average (.233) ... On Base Percentage (.292) ... and Slugging Percentage (.348).
How does the maniacal Dr. Zduriencik honestly look to inject more life in to his creation?
Well, now that Prince Fielder is off the market and he can’t simply just sign a free agent to help inject power in to this lineup … he’d have to look to raise the lightning rods by trading for another bat.
Which means in order to get something shiny that can actually inject some power in to this lineup … the Mariners are going to have to give up something shiny. And this is the part of the conversation in which fans inevitably start reaching for their Clonazepam tablets over the mere thought of actually dealing away prospects that they perceive will be future All Star players.
For those who feel that way, let me provide a little context for this discussion ...
Sandy notes …
EVERY fan who follows the minors will 'tend' to over-value their own prospects, regardless of the historic results, compared to other clubs.
Sandy’s absolutely right in that regard. Let’s take the hand of the Ghost of Seasons past and journey through space and time to look in on the shadows of things that were -- back to 1998. Dr. D., G_Money, Silent Padna (I know you’re out there ;) and others will remember from the old Sportspot days that we were all partying back then like it was 1999 over 3 young highly touted pitching prospects whom many believed were the key to the Mariners future.
Sound Familiar?
Ryan Anderson, Gil Meche, and Joel Piniero were 3 hard throwing 19 year olds that everyone out there was saying and writing about were locks for the rotation … and that would be dominant starting pitchers for years to come. What actually became of these guys though?
Gil Meche --- over his 10 year career posted a 84-83 record with a career 4.49 ERA. Meche had a 4.65 ERA in 6 years in Seattle and twice posted ERA’s over 5.00. Meche was an All Star in 2007 – but hey, it was with the Royals. Kansas City had to have somebody represent them in the summer classic.
Joel Piniero – in 12 seasons Piniero has a 104-94 record with a 4.41 Career ERA. Piniero was practically run out of town after posting a 6.36 ERA in 2006 (he had a 5.62 ERA the previous year). He has never been an All Star.
Ryan Anderson – was nicknamed the "Little Unit" and was the M's #1 Draft Choice in the 1997 Draft. He was a 6'10 Randy Johnson clone who could throw 98 MPH and earmarked for greatness. Anderson bragged during Spring Training in 1998 that he “pretty much dominated” veteran hitters like Ken Griffey, Jr., Jay Buhner, and Alex Rodriguez – they all had a good laugh over that one. Anderson never made it past AAA and retired after his release in 2005 following several injury plagued seasons.
In the end, Meche and Piniero became Major League average (but not outstanding) pitchers and Ryan Anderson (the most highly touted of the bunch) never made it at all.
While we as fans HOPE that Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker all become the #1 Starters we believe them to be … there is also a chance that they become Meche, Piniero, and Anderson as well.
Anyone who has followed my work for any length of time knows that I have said repeatedly, “Prospects are Prospects.” Well, there is a reason that I keep saying that. Let me explain what I mean ...
I have been working on a massive analysis on the June Amateur Draft off an on for about the last 16 years or so. (Hopefully, I'll have that ready to roll out here in its entirety fairly soon). But for the mean time, let me give a little snippet of the research.
It's often talked about how the bust rate for prospects is high. Just how high is "high?" Well, my analysis has taken a look at every single Major League Team's draft over a 20 year time span (1989-2008) ... though obviously, those the books on those drafts from about 2004 on are far from spoken for (I call those drafts "Early Returns).
In taking a look at all prospects drafted (and yes I do account for those who were never signed -- that is a major pain, believe me) ... I've broken them down in to 3 categories:
1) Prospects who make it to the Major Leagues (even if they only ever pitch to 1 batter or have 1 AB -- doesn't matter -- they made it to the Major Leagues)
2) Prospects who had what we would call a Decently Productive Major League Career -- that means, guys who (say for example from the 1989 through 1994 drafts) played at least 4 or 5 seasons and put up what we would call Average Numbers for their particular position.
3) Prospects that ended up becoming what we would call Major League Stars (pretty obvious in taking a look at these guys as to whether or not they were elite players).
With all that in mind --- just in terms of the Mariners, here is how the Mariners have done over the last 20 years in the June Amateur Draft ...
% of Mariners picks that made it to the Major Leagues … 134 of 1150 (11.65%)
% of Mariners picks that had a decently productive Major League Career … 58 of 1150 (5.04%)
% of Mariners picks that actually became Major League Stars … 22 of 1150 (2.1%)
Now, narrowing the focus to just 1st Round Draft Choices -- taking a look at every single First Round Draft Choice from 1977-2006 ... here is how the Mariners 1st Round Choices have panned out ...
Mariners 1st Round Draft Choices (1977-2006) – 33 Total Picks
% of 1st Round picks that made it to the Major Leagues … 26 of 33 (78.78%)
% of 1st Round picks that had a decently productive Major League Career … 15 of 33 (45.45%)
% of 1st Round picks that actually became Major League Stars … 6 of 33 (18.18%)
First Round draft choices are far from a sure thing ...
Patrick Lennon, the M's 1st Round Choice (#8 overall) in the 1986 Draft ... never truly made it in the Majors.
Mark Newfield, M's 1st Round Choice (#6 overall) in the 1990 Draft -- same thing.
In 1995, the Mariners traded their 1st Round Choice from 1989 Roger Salkeld -- a young, fireballer with a 96 MPH fastball ... for RHP Tim Belcher. That ended up being a key trade for the M's, as Belcher became a key to the M’s success that year … while Salkeld never made it to the Majors.
Now I can see the wheels turning there -- you're thinking, "Ah, that's just the Mariners." To that I can definitively answer -- "Nope." Let's take a look at a club who you'd definitely would think would be right at the very top in terms of prospects making it ...
Let's take a look at the New York Yankees and their 1st Round Draft Choices from 1990-2006. This is the richest and most powerful club in baseball. Surely, given their massive resources and what they pour in to scouting, you'd think that their success rate in the draft would be through the roof. Let's take a look and see ...
New York Yankees 1st Round Draft Choices (1990-2006)
1990 -- Carl Everett (Played 14 Seasons including 2 All Star Appearances. Major League Star)
1991 -- Brien Taylor (1st Round Bust – never made it to the Majors)
1992 – Derek Jeter (Hall of Famer – check)
1993 – Matt Drews (Never made it to the Majors)
1994 – Brian Buchanan (Made it to the Majors -- played 3 total seasons (parts of 5 seasons) -- not a Decently Productive Career)
1995 – Shea Morenz (Never made it past AA)
1996 – Eric Milton (Decently productive career -- played parts of 11 seasons w/1 All Star Appearance. Decently Productive Career)
1997 – Ryan Bradley (Played only 12 2/3 innings in his career)
1998 – Andy Brown (Never made it past AA)
1998 -- Mark Prior* (didn’t sign) -- played 4 full seasons, part of another w/1 All Star Appearance. Decently Productive Career
1999 – David Walling -- (Never made it past AAA)
2000 – David Parrish -- (Never made it past AAA)
2001 – John-Ford Griffin (Had 23 Career Major League at Bats with the Blue Jays)
2001 – Bronson Sardinha (Had 12 Major League Plate appearances in 2007)
2001 -- Jon Skaggs (Never made it past AA)
2002 – No Pick in 1st Round
2003 – Eric Duncan (Hasn't made it past AAA. Spent last 2 years at AA)
______________________________________________________________________________________Early Returns
2004 – Jonathan Poterson (Made it to Class A Charleston. Spent last 2 years in Independent Leagues (age 25))
2004 -- Jeffrey Marquez (Has pitched a total of 5 Innings at age 26. Too early to tell)
2005 – Carl Henry (at High A Tampa last year at age 22. Too early to tell)
2006 – Ian Kennedy (21 game winner with Diamondbacks last year. Looking like a Decently Productive Career/possible Star so far)
2006 -- Joba Chamberlain (has logged parts of 5 seasons thus far as a 25 year old. Looking like a Decently Productive Career so far)
Yankees 1st Round Draft Choices (1990-2006) – 20 Total Picks (Mark Prior not included because he never signed)
% of 1st Round picks that made it to the Major Leagues … 10 of 20 (50%)
% of 1st Round picks that had a decently productive Major League Career … 5 of 20 (25%)
% of 1st Round picks that actually became Major League Stars … 2 of 20 (10%) - [Early returns such as Kennedy and Chamberlain could change that]
This is just a snippet of the massive amount of data I've collected thus far. The bottom line is though that after having taken a look at over 20 years of minor league drafts I can tell you one thing with great certainty. And that is, only rarely do prospects ever live up to their Pre-Draft Hype and the expectations of the team and their fans. We fans always seem to have severe myopia when it comes to the abilities and the ultimate ceiling of our prospects.
Today on his blog, Larry Stone talked about the fact that it's actually becoming actually becoming much harder to find great young sluggers than it is to find good young pitchers. That’s why, when an opportunity presents itself to trade prospects for young players (especially good young hitters) who are already AT the Major League level – I generally don’t have a problem with the idea.
Right now, if the Mariners were looking to add more power to this still lifeless lineup, there are 3 obvious spots they could do so --- Third Base, Left Field, and Center Field (Right Field perhaps as well, if the M’s are looking to 2013 and beyond).
So, in taking a look at the Mariners Third Base situation as it sits right now, here are the candidates that they currently have for the job …
Chone Figgins (After sporting a .188 Batting Average and a .241 OBP, the Mariners are definitely ready to move on from Mr. Figgins. Unfortunately, the Mariners probably won't be able to escape the gravity well of the at least $17 million more he's owed on his contract).
Kyle Seager (Profiles as a line drive contact hitter who’ll hit for doubles. Perhaps he’ll end up going on the Brett Boone Tarzan workout plan and add power as he matures as Edgar did … but he’s not a true home run hitter right now).
Alex Liddi (For sure, Liddi HAS the kind of power that the M’s are seeking. But, with his defensive deficiencies and propensity for the big strikeout, he profiles as Mark Reynolds – best case scenario in my opinion)
Vinnie Catricala (Has great contact rates and the bat appears legitimate … but he may be a man without a position. After having committed 14 Errors at Third in limited duty there, the Mariners may not be all that hip to the idea of him at the hot corner.)
Francisco Martinez (promising K/BB rates, OPS, Batting Average, and BABIP numbers for a 20 year old … but 35 Errors at 3B to boot? Good-night!)
Steven Proscia (put up some nice numbers in the hitter friendly California League last year … but also had pretty low K/BB rates as well. We’ll see how he profiles moving forward.)
And the Mariners DO recognize that Third Base is one of those areas that is an issue for them. Geoff Baker wrote about the fact that Tom McNamara has a major “man crush” on Toronto’s Brett Lawrie and that the M’s first tried to trade for him before focusing on Jesus Montero. With great bat speed, excellent plate discipline, and good raw power to all fields, Lawrie would be a guy that would go a long ways towards helping resurrect the Mariners offense.
That lack of power and true run producers is the reason that I suggested the M’s should think about trading for Third Baseman Lonnie Chisenhall, who is already AT the Major Leagues, is a left handed bat reputed to have more power than the Energizer Bunny, and fits all the criteria of Jackie Z’s TUNNEL VISION MODEL that I talked about earlier.
And that same deficit also presents itself in the Mariners Outfield throughout the entire system as well ...
Ichiro (It's been known for years that Ichiro CAN hit for home runs if he chooses to. For a 38 year old who might not be around all that much longer the question truly is -- Can a leopard honestly change his spots at this stage of the game?)
Franklin Gutierrez (He turns 29 on February 21st. He's all world with his glove, but with the stomach issues he's had, the M's can't count on a repeat of his performance in 2009).
Casper Wells (He's probably the leader for the LF job coming in to Spring Training. Still, if his minor league numbers are any indicator, he's probably a 4th outfielder with occasional pop at best).
Trayvon Robinson (Definitely he's probably more of a doubles, gap hitter w/occasional power who'll steal you a few bases. I'm thinking a poor man's Shannon Stewart personally).
Vinnie Catricala (Left Field may be his ultimate destination, but it remains to be seen if he can handle the position long-term defensively. Kind of profiles as a poor man's Edgar Martinez).
Chih-Hsien Chiang (Another guy who profiles much the same kind of hitter as Robinson, though hasn't flashed that stolen base potential. Good glove. Looks like more of a bench player).
Carlos Peguero (Most definitely has the power the M's are looking for ... but also looks like he needs JoBu badly to calm his frightened bat).
Michael Saunders (A guy you love to root for in terms of his effort and obvious talent -- one wonders though if his swing will ever come around).
Johermyn Chavez (Like Peguero, a guy who has power -- but a .216 Batting Average and a .312 OBP at AA will not inspire many in to believing Chavez is ultimately going to make it).
Phillips Castillo (If you believe John Sickels, Castillo could be the best hitting prospect in the organization a year from now. Had a 4.06 Strikeout/BB Ratio at Rookie Ball last year -- so could stand improvement in that arena. Seeing as how he'll be only 18 and probably open this season at Class A Clinton, he's at least 2-3 years from the Big Club if all goes well).
Guillermo Pimentel (Has excellent raw power, but only sported a .308 OBP while striking out 73 times and walking only 15 times (a 4.86 SO/K Ratio) at Class A Pulaski. He's only 19, so there's time for improvement. Like Castillo, he's at least 2-3 years away -- best case scenario).
As you can see, there's no SuperStar Level bats on the way up any time soon. It’s the reason that (upon further review) I WOULD be willing to give up most anything if Mike Stanton were to actually become available. As much as I like the prospect of a 19 year old fireballer like Walker who has recorded 99 mph on the gun … if Stanton were to actually become available --- BOOM goes the dynamite! He’d be a Marlin faster than Gene Wilder could scream, “It’s Alive!”
If there is one piece of advice I can give to fans regarding Minor League Prospects in general it's this -- never fear giving up birds in the bush ... for birds in the hand.
This team needs power and they should be willing to give up almost anything to get it IF those players are young players:
- That scouts generally agree have HUGE upside in terms of their potential -- i.e. are very special bats.
- With 2 years or less of Major League Service time and are several years away from their peak (age 27).
- Who are either AT the Major League Level or are Major League Ready.
- Who are under club control for a long time ... and therefore, will be part of the Mariners for several years.
- Who aren’t making anything in terms of salary and won’t be for many years.
Now am I saying the Mariners should be stupid and start giving away every high end prospect in the system? Absolutely not. That would be foolish -- unless you're getting (what you perceive to be) an equal or better return on what you're giving up. What I am saying is this --- in the vast majority of cases, those prospects that you believe are so invaluable ... will never live up to expectations. Don’t Fear the Reaper, fellow M’s fans. ;)
MA
Comments
Meaty post, MA
The turning point for the franchise will be seen as the 2009 draft. Your data about the rate of busts makes the results that much more awesome.
Ackley
Franklin
Seager
Catricala
All have shown the ability to be MLB contributors. A few of the pitchers may make the bigs as well, particuarly Moran and Carraway.
And I wouldn't rule out some form of contribution from Rich Poythress (though 1b/DH is pretty full), James Jones (who keeps having parts of interesting seasons), and even C Trevor Coleman (who knows how to draw walks) and CF Matthew Cerione (who had a higher SLG than Catricala or Franklin when they were on the same team at Clinton).
That's all from one draft.
Third base
Figgins: he is actually now the key to the team carrying three catchers, as he'll be able to backup 3b and OF. So looks like we're stuck with him, and let's just hope he recovers some. Not a long-term option, obviously.
Seager: I have a post here about his potential to develop power as his career develops in the same manner as Pedroia and Ellsbury (who also have XBH ability + very low K rate). I actually think what would keep him from 3b long term would be dissatisfaction with his glove there (he has better reflexes for 2b). Could see him tried in the OF as well.
Liddi: Good to see someone agree that Reynolds is his upside. But Reynolds is an OK upside. I don't see any way that he'll be better than Reynolds unless he makes a big leap this year.
Catricala: He sure looks like he will hit (three straight excellent minor-league seasons, each better than the one before) -- and they'll give him some shots at 3b, but probably on a short leash.
F.Martinez: I keep looking for reasons to be bullish, and not finding any. It's like Triunfel -- at some point the scouting reports have to turn into performance. Hasn't really happened yet, but he's got some time. Not on MLB radar anytime soon, though.
Brad Miller: Left him off. Only played 14 games, so this year we'll see what we got. Good potential for another Seager-level bat that could slide to 3b.
Longer-shot guys who showed some promise at 2b, but could end up at third if they keep hitting: Dan Paolini (.841 OPS) and Stefen Romero (16 HR at Clinton).
Outfield
Wells: totally agree! his minor-league numbers are just not impressive and his MLB numbers are inflated by some flukish results that he can't sustain. 4th OF with occasional pop is just right I think. Role player.
Robinson: I don't see him succeeding. I like Jabari Blash or James Jones better in terms of surviving with the bat, but they don't play CF, making them low-percentage shots.
Chiang is really hard to figure, but his monster season before he got traded here looks increasingly flukish.
Peguero/Chavez/Saunders. Off the radar. Not gonna cut it. Don't know why Saunders looked so blinkin' good at 22, but he wasn't able to sustain it.
Castillo/Pimentel/Morales: Gotta add Alfredo Morales to your list of teenagers, but none of this trio is anywhere close to ready. Nice to have but impossible to figure at this point.
Need to toss out one more name (in addition to Cerione, whom I touted in the prior comment): Mike McGee. CF with a nice, all-around .801 OPS in Clinton.
But you're right that there is no superstar bat in the OF mix anytime soon. Catricala and Carp look strong at the plate, but would they put them both out there in the corners? Would we see some of the IF surplus end up in the OF if their bats hold up (Seager, Miller)?
Why a personnel man matters
I agree, the Ms pre-Jack were terrible at locating talent via the draft, or at developing the talent they did draft as it progressed up the minor league ladder.
But as I said in this post on MC :
Zduriencik's domestic scouting hits with the Brewers (just counting guys who have logged pro time and have been or are likely to be plus contributors):1999: Ben Sheets, round one. Not bad right out of the gate.
2000: Cory Hart in round 11, as a high school pick he bought out of a college commitment. Those first 10 picks were useless, though.
2001: JJ Hardy in the 2nd.
2002: Prince Fielder in the first. Again, good call. Craig Breslow in the 26th, from Yale, on a lark.
2003: Rickie Weeks, and Tony Gwynn in the first 2 rounds. Maybe we should just call that Rickie Weeks.
2004: Yovani Gallardo in the 2nd, Lorenzo Cain as another HS buyout project in the 17th.
2005: Ryan Braun in the first, Mat Gamel in the 4th, Andrew Bailey in the 16th, Zach Braddock in the 18th, Jake Arrieta in the 26th (sheesh)
2006: Jeremy Jeffress in the 1st, Mike McClendon in the 10th.
2007: Matt LaPorta in the 1st (not a hit yet though), Jonathan Lucroy in the 2ndMariners, same time frame (between Gillick and Bavasi):1999: Willie Bloomquist in the 3rd, JJ Putz in the 6th
2000: none
2001: none
2002: none
2003: Adam Jones
2004: Rob Johnson in the 2nd (yay?), Mark Lowe in the 3rd, Mike Saunders in the 11th
2005: none (maybe Anthony Varvaro, but he'll do it somewhere else)
2006: Brandon Morrow in the first, Chris Tillman in the 2nd, Adam Moore in the 5th, Fister in the 7th
2007: Matt Mangini and Shawn Kelley are the best of the bunch.
What I left off at the time:
2008: Brett Freakin' Lawrie
2009: Dustin "HOF" Ackley, Kyle Seager, Nick Franklin, Vinnie Catricala
2010: Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, a handful of pen arms
Zduriencik likes his first round hitters, and he's almost NEVER wrong. You know when he's wrong? When everyone else is wrong too and the first round is a slag heap. And then he normally snags his man in the 2nd.
Which is one of the only reasons I can (mostly) get over the Rendon thing. If Jack didn't like him, and Jack is never wrong...then either I must be missing something about Rendon, or Hultzen is gonna be devastating.
Jack liked Montero + Hultzen over Pineda + Rendon. And now we'll see if he's right.
FYI, he almost always is. He adds a plus player with every domestic draft. Not a contributor, or an average guy.
All Stars: Sheets, Hardy, Weeks, Fielder, Gallardo, Hart, Braun, with Ackley and Lawrie joining as soon as next year.
You kidding me?
The reason it is smart for the Mariners to go with the kids is not because it's cheaper, or kids are a better risk, or a surer thing. It's because the guy we have making the selections is a robber baron of elite prospects.
That's his gift. Gillick's was free agency. He sucked at the minor leagues. Zduriencik is outstanding at sniffing out the plus contributor from a batch of similarly skilled raw players. He's done it time and time again.
Let the man do what he does. And remember not to value the prospects he's added at the top the same way we'd value Bavasi's top prospects.
Zduriencik trades top-rated players as soon as he's positive they cannot provide what another player can and he has no place for them in his future plans.
If Miller shows Jack that he is the man at SS I would absolutely expect Franklin to get moved in a huge package for something we need. If Catricala can hold down 3B then F-Mart or Liddi is outta here as soon as the return is good enough.
"We need to trade our prospects for somebody else's better player" only works if our prospects aren't Ryan Braun and Brett Lawrie.
But I trust that if they get moved, then they won't be, because Jack wouldn't let that happen.
~G
Never saw an org as giddy over a draft pick ...
Which is one of the only reasons I can (mostly) get over the Rendon thing. If Jack didn't like him, and Jack is never wrong...then either I must be missing something about Rendon, or Hultzen is gonna be devastating.
... as the Mariners were over Hultzen. They were positively gloating.
And they risked their pprrrrrrecious, their #2 overall, going through the signability concerns in order to get Hultzen.
All that said...
Prospects are for playing, or trading, or depth in case of injury.
We have a bunch of 3B and all of them obviously can't play the position for the Mariners. The ones that start to fail will lose value.
So there is a tipping point. I'm not in a rush to start throwing talent out of the system, though. Again, for Mike Stanton or Logan Morrison, we'd talk.
But most of those kinds of guys are not and never will be available - which is why you need to be able to draft them in the first place.
~G
Careful you must be when sensing the future ...
You have 6-8 potential 3Bs and none you can rely on. Do you trade BEFORE you know which is the best ... or do you rifle through them, find one that works ... and then start dealing the rest?
Me? I want to find the one that sticks. Once I'm confident I'm covered for the next 5-6 years, THEN I think about dealing from the depth. It's only depth if you actually have the spot covered.
Out of the draft, your odds are daunting, no doubt
The bottom line is though that after having taken a look at over 20 years of minor league drafts I can tell you one thing with great certainty. And that is, only rarely do prospects ever live up to their Pre-Draft Hype and the expectations of the team and their fans.
1. The #20 overall pick in June has about a 10% chance to be an ML star, I'd guess. /cosign on everything said about the amateur draft.
2. It's a completely different subject when you are talking about the #20 minor leaguer on Baseball America's list, of course. That's a guy who has passed many filters that the draftee hasn't.
3. And another subject yet when you're talking about a guy who hit 50 homers in his last 176 triple-A games, and then slugged .500 in Safeco over a 275 at-bat trial. That was the guy you suggested in a Chisenhall deal, and that was the guy that touched off this idea that only Seattle fans would be impressed with him. (Shandler comps him to Mark Trumbo.)
A prospect is one thing; a guy who has detonated AAA and seen ML pitching, and blasted it, that's not a June draftee.
............
Looking forward to the Draft Book, Todd. :- ) If it's not on Amazon for $24.99, I'll watch SSI for freebies!
Nod of the Head to Ya -- G
Absolutely agree with you Gordon on lots of things you shared there - especially on the Brewers drafts during the time Zduriencik was there vs. those of the M's under Gillick. The numbers absolutely bear that out that Gillick was horrible in the June Amateur Draft ... while Zduriencik seems to be a whiz kid. That said, Gillick doesn't get enough credit for his international signings (which while I don't cover in my research) are nonetheless pretty impressive -- Ichiro, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin Soo Choo, and Felix Hernandez just to name a few. We can debate Gillick's prowess (or even importance for that matter) in the fact that Ichiro and Sasaki signed during his time as GM. Undoubtedly, that was Bob Engle was probably much more instrumental, but I'd like to think Gillick had at least something to do with those two.
Regarding Rendon, I gotta admit that I was watching the Draft live via the MLB blog and when Danny Hultzen was announced, my jaw hit the floor (and I've since repented regarding the rest of my initial reaction). But, as you said, Jackie Z's track record is a good one. If he think the shoulder and his ability to hit at Safeco is going to be an issue ... he's probably got reason to think along those lines.
As for the 3rd Base Prospects --
I have my doubts on whether Catricala can handle the hot corner (I think he's more of a LF if he plays anywhere in the field). But as always, time will tell on that one.
Liddi -- I know that Lonnie is as higher than a Woodstock Groupie on him -- but I just don't see it. I wished I shared that enthusiasm. To me, the strikeout level in combination with his apparent defensive issues just really make me wonder. Hope he proves me wrong. Lonnie's penciled him in as the starter coming out of ST -- we'll see.
Francisco Martinez -- to me, I do see a lot in terms of upside and potential there given that he was only 20 years old at AA last year. His BA and XBH's were encouraging. I'd like to have seen his OBP higher and for him to really look to cut down on the strikeouts this year. For me, the errors are the concerning part. You can't have 35 errors over at 3rd Base -- just can't have that out of your starter. This year will be very telling for him, but I do see some reasons for optimism.
"We need to trade our prospects for somebody else's better player" only works if our prospects aren't Ryan Braun and Brett Lawrie.
Agreed G -- and do you honestly see any prospect in our system who you project as either Braun or Lawrie? Maybe I need to clean my windshield, but I personally don't see any as having THAT high an upside at this point.
So there is a tipping point. I'm not in a rush to start throwing talent out of the system, though. Again, for Mike Stanton or Logan Morrison, we'd talk.
But most of those kinds of guys are not and never will be available - which is why you need to be able to draft them in the first place.
Completely agreed. And if the Blue Jays said no way to Pineda for Lawrie -- then nothing would have swung that deal. Still, a man's got to try. The Stantons, the Morrison -- those are more of the kind of acquisitions I'm talking about in terms of giving up your top prospects for. Beyond that, it's draft and develop.
MA
Back at Ya Doc!
1. The #20 overall pick in June has about a 10% chance to be an ML star, I'd guess. /cosign on everything said about the amateur draft.
Well, I've got the data -- but am still in the process of crunching the numbers. Off the top of my head though, I'd have to say that probably about right. That's a great thought on breaking it down even further on say Top 10 draft picks in the 1st round and those later in the 1st round. I'll probably end up breaking it down even further -- that should only add another month or so to the process LOL!
2. It's a completely different subject when you are talking about the #20 minor leaguer on Baseball America's list, of course. That's a guy who has passed many filters that the draftee hasn't.
True to an extent -- Here's one such example that I have handy ...
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects (2004) …
1. Felix Hernandez, rhp
2. Jeremy Reed, of (Has been a career journeyman and below avg. bench player)
3. Shin-Soo Choo, of
4. Clint Nageotte, rhp (only 41 2/3 innings in his career)
5. Matt Tuiasosopo, ss (we all keep rooting for him, but it’s not looking good)
6. Travis Blackley, lhp (34 2/3 Career innings. He last played in Australia)
7. Chris Snelling, of (Injuries kept him from becoming the Edgar clone we all believed he’d be)
8. Adam Jones, ss
9. Wladimir Balentien, of (.221 Career batting average, he’s signed a deal to play in Japan. Maybe he can pull a Cecil Fielder)
10. Asdrubal Cabrera, ss/2b
So, 4 out of 10 hit from this class -- but all admittedly good players the ones that did.
3. And another subject yet when you're talking about a guy who hit 50 homers in his last 176 triple-A games, and then slugged .500 in Safeco over a 275 at-bat trial. That was the guy you suggested in a Chisenhall deal, and that was the guy that touched off this idea that only Seattle fans would be impressed with him. (Shandler comps him to Mark Trumbo.)
A prospect is one thing; a guy who has detonated AAA and seen ML pitching, and blasted it, that's not a June draftee.
Hey Now -- let's play nice Doc. :) I absolutely LOVE Carp -- L-O-V-E who he is and what he brings to the table. Love his attitude ... love his toughness ... love the character that he's shown to get sent down 4X and rebound with a vengeance ... and love the potential that I see with his bat. I actually agree with Shandler in calling him Trumbo. I'm actually predicting a .280 or so BA with around 20 or so HR this year ...
... and if Carp could play 3rd Base, Justin Smoak wasn't entrenched at 1B, and there wasn't a strong possibility that Montero ends up at DH -- we're not having this conversation. If Montero does end up at DH -- then how much impact will Carp honestly have on the pine? I think he can DO Left Field in a pinch -- every now and then -- I just don't know that I'm all that comfortable with the idea of him there as the regular there, day in, day out.
It's all about Opportunity/Cost and maximizing value. And if you can flip a Mike Carp for someone who can play a position of need and give you (what you believe will be) the same or better level of offensive production -- is that such a crazy move? We can argue about whether or not Chisenhall's that particular guy --- but that's the position I'm coming from.
Looking forward to the Draft Book, Todd. :- ) If it's not on Amazon for $24.99, I'll watch SSI for freebies!
In its final form, this "Draft Book" will be basically that. It won't be a Post Per-Se ... more like an Encyclopedia or Reference. There will be a permanent link to it over at MarinerCentral.com that anyone can access whenever. I envision it as a great tool to help us answer questions like, "Gee, I wonder what the failure/success rate of 5th Round Draft Choices is" ... and "Who honestly is the Best GM in terms of the Draft and His Ability to Identify Talent?" That last one, I'm particularly interested in seeing how the numbers all sort themselves out. As I said, it's a massive project -- one that I've been working on for years. Should be interesting when it's finally all said and done.
MA
Completely agree MA.
Completely agree MA.
I went through a similar view of BA's top 100 prospects over the past decade a couple years back and the bust%s are alarming.
Something like Hultzen+ Franklin + Erasmo for Lawrie may raise a few eyebrows, but chances are the team that gets Lawrie is the one that wins out long-term.
Wouldn't mind depleting the non-Montero upper level specs for something like Lawrie+Stanton. Especially since they're all pitchers.
Probably isn't realistic to dream about that kind of thing, but can you imagine Montero+Stanton+Lawrie all locked up to Longoria-type deals? I'd be fine waiting out for the lower level specs to work their way up and filling SP in FA in the meanwhile.
Daps to ya Taro
Daps to ya Taro.
Absolutely right and that is precisely the point. Hultzen+Franklin+Erasmo for sure would get the natives fired up and ready to break out the war canoes to engage in an all out Island Assault ... but in the end, the odds say that the one who ends up landing a Lawrie or a Stanton wins that deal most times. The very fact that the Blue Jays turned down Lawrie for Pineda tells ya they know that's absolutely true.
Now, am I saying go full on out and start chucking out every top prospect from the M's farm system? Absolutely not. You covet those guys more than Golem loves his prrrrecious ... BUT, if you're able to land a SPECIAL player -- a young up and coming stud (Ex. a Montero, Stanton, or Lawrie) ... you can live like Frodo without the ring finger.
Young hitters (impact ones) are getting harder and harder to find. If you actually have a chance to nab one of those guys -- d*** the torpedoes and full steam ahead.
MA
If we could get Lawrie for that
Then I'd be very interested in doing that deal.
But you can't.
If Pineda wouldn't net us Lawrie then Hultzen + Franklin won't either. It would be like Texas trying to get Dustin Ackley from us for Leonys Martin and Martin Peres. Anybody doing that?
Me either.
I find it interesting that after Jack pulls off an incredible, offense-boosting trade, the response is "Eh. Do it again." Even though the desired targets are on teams that Jack already targeted with a better pitcher than the one (or ones) we'd be trying to move. And in at least one case, teams that turned us down.
I do expect to make another trade for offense...but we really might not. If we can get Alex Gordon out of KC with an extension or some other more expensive player, then I can see it.
But we're not getting Lawrie, Stanton, or Morrison prior to the start of the season. Why would the teams that have them give them up to us? Just because we asked? They're basically free salary-wise, have many years of club control left, and fill a need on the clubs they're already on.
It happened with the Yankees because of a very specific situation: They desperately needed pitching, we desperately needed hitting, and we both had top-5 prospects / rookie talent that we were willing to part with to make that happen.
If Hultzen pulls a Pineda on the league in 2012 then maybe we'd be able to trade him for a monster (remember, Hultzen still isn't tradable since he was drafted just last year). But if Toronto wouldn't budge for Pineda then their pitching situation will have to get drastically worse for them to go for Hultzen as a Lawrie return.
Or Lawrie will have to slump something awful, I guess, in which case you'd better be sure you want him.
No, I don't think any of our current minor league hitters are Braun or Lawrie. But an injury or two to Walker and Paxton and our "pipeline" of arms gets busted in a hurry.
Find out who we have before we start trying to pawn off the farm. Stanton's a sure thing, I guess, but he's a sure thing we can't GET without dumping other sure things, perhaps more than we can spare. Stanton for Ackley + Hultzen? The Marlins don't have so much offense that they can part with their best slugger for an arm.
And if Smoak turns into Stanton but some of our other arms fizzle, we may need Hultzen very much ourselves.
I hate to sound like Sandy, but please: be patient.
The reason you add Miller high in the draft when you have Franklin is because you NEED a SS and you can't count on one man to be THE perfect fit.
We have F-Mart, Seager, Liddi, etc at 3B because we don't know who will turn out to be what we need to fill it. Will any of them be Lawrie? No. But we're not drafting Lawrie, we're trying to trade for him, which means value has to go out to bring him in. So how much better is Lawrie than our in-house options, and how much worse will be be at other positions after the trade?
The trade you want has already happened. It won't happen again in the next 4 weeks.
Is our roster for the next couple of years set? No.
Do we have minor league talents that are trying to claw their way onto the major league roster? Yes.
Do we need to have a plan B in case they fail? Yes.
Will that plan involve talking another team (especially a non-playoff team) into parting with one of its touted young stars with 5 years of club control left? Probably not.
And if they will part with them for anything less than All-Star returns, you might want to ask if they're really the young stars you think they are.
~G
I actually agree that it
I actually agree that it wouldn't be enough. I'm thinking two top-end SP specs might do it though for Lawrie. The Ms have three.
Toronto has a need for SP and lots of offense much like the Yankees. It would be a blockbuster to a higher degree than Montero deal was, but I think theres a potential fit ther.
Pitching is plentiful in this era. Elite position players are scarce. I think it'll take more than just building within. Some of these players/prospects values may be near their peaks and you need to capitalize.
As long as you have the OF D in Safeco, there are multiple pitching options that can pan out for you. The hitting is much harder to come by.
Building a winner
I really dig Sickles series on how the top players were seen as prosects: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/1/2764217/the-top-30-positions-pla...
Of those top 30 nearly 2/3rds were at one point seen as a B+ or better prospect.
Of the pitchers: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/1/30/2758481/the-top-25-pitchers-in-...
Of the top 25 pitchers in baseball over 68% were seen at B+ or better prospects.
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It certainly appears that while the flameout rate for prospects may be high, the likelyhood that a star player was at one point a star prospect is similarly high.
So, how best to build a team?
The M's and GMZ are currently running their organization with a plan. One that looks very similar to what Sandy has demonstrated historically as a solid track record for sucess. Develop a talent pool of players under club control that can succeed together during their year 26, 27 and 28 seasons. Supplement with free agency to fill voids.
The M's can't compete on a resource level with the Yankees and other super large market teams. Nor can they mark tradition or geography as strong favors. Nor can they take advantage of recent success. That handcuffs the M's in the free agent market.
What are they left with? What are most of the teams in baseball left with? Drafting well, developing their own talent, making intelligent international free agent signings, and hunting through the bargain bin free agents. And lets be honest, the large market teams do all that stuff too, and they sign the big time free agents. Nobody said baseball was fair.
So, how can the M's compete with unfair and uneven market dynamics? They have to get lucky.
Now, it doesn't hurt to work harder, hire smarter people, better scouts, better sabermetricians, etc. etc. etc., but again, every team is trying to do that.
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Hultzen, Franklin and Erasmo for Lawrie? No thanks. Why? Because I need to make a Yahtzee and all my other squares are filled. I need Hultzen AND Franklin to come up sixes.
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Thankfully for M's fans, our guy, Mr. Z. He may have a game changing ability to spot talent. As G pointed out - Lawrie? Fielder? Braun? Weeks? Hardy? This guy is money, boy can he spot talent.
I've got more faith than ever that he's the man for this job.
- Ben.