Let's bear in mind, as we're guessing the market for Jack Wilson this winter, that the Pirates (of all people) gave Jack Wilson 15% of their payroll to OPS+ 77 for them.
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We fancy that modern sabermetrics has a point of difference here, against most current GM's. Hey, we put a high value on a plus-glove CF, SS, 2B or C, especially if he looks like he'll chip in with the bat.
The truth is, baseball has valued up-the-middle gloves, with decent bats, for 100 years. But the recent perception of defense as overlooked just proves the old rule, "If something's out of style long enough, it comes back into style" ... :- )
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Why did Cleveland consider Guti a near-untouchable even though he was a 3-year veteran, still not even guaranteed a starting job? Because plus mitts in CF-SS-2B, if they can hit a little, are precious to all 30 GM's. It's not a question of, hey, our pencils are so sharp now that we've come realize Paul Blair and Devo White have value.
Baseball history has tended to value the Devon Whites of the game even more than they deserve, IMHO. Lots of glove CF's have wound up getting more PT than was justified. Jeremy Reed, for example, just got another 128-game trial with the Mets.
Or pick your own example. My boyhood heroes, the Big Red Machine, had all-star bats at every position but one: they put Cesar Geronimo in CF to run 85 OPS+'s.
The 1990's Indians put huge bats everywhere, including some clunky gloves, like Baerga's and Thome's. But Little O was "the glue" of the franchise, running 70 OPS+ for them, "holding the defense together," and headed to the Hall of Fame (!) for his defense and career 83 OPS+ bat.
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Since at least the 1950's and the great Phil Rizzuto / Pee Wee Reese debates, sportswriters have prided themselves on appreciating defense more than the bleacher bums do.
It's always been a way for the faithful to make a statement that they really get baseball. The entire "Rizzuto for the HOF" campaign was that generation's Fangraphs argument. Check Rizzuto's HOF monitors. He's in the HOF because he was a way for sportswriters to make a statement that they appreciated baseball on a higher level than the folks in the stands do.
Even with Mantle, Yogi, and Whitey Ford laying waste the AL, you still had your sportswriters who maintained that underappreciated defense was the real key to the Yankee dynasty. :- )
The Rizzuto-for-the-HOF debate reached levels that make today's UZR food fight look like a walk in the park. There is nothing new under the sun.
Defense has been "cool" since the days of John McGraw. It's every generation's hidden edge.
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True, some GM's value Devo White -- and Jack Wilson, Omar Vizquel, Mike Cameron, etc -- even more than others do, because some GM's lean a bit more to defense, some lean a bit more to batters that fit their park, etc. But all 30 of them value the guy at some significant level.
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Said all that to say this: If Jack Wilson could hit even for an 80 OPS+, then a dozen teams would give him $8-10M per year. Not just the teams popularly famous for saber departments.
Know how I know that? Because the Pirates, of all people, gave Jack Wilson that much money. After 2006, when Wilson had hit for a 77 OPS+, the Pirates gave Jack Wilson $6-8M per year of a $40M payroll.
Baseball loves fancy gloves. It always has. The list of overpaid defenders far exceed the list of undervalued ones, we're sure. 15% of your payroll to a shortstop who hits 77 ?!
Wilson might sign here for $4-5M, but guess here is that Jack would pass on that to go get his $8M in the National League.
Which leaves us paying Wilson most of an Adam Dunn salary in the hope that -- in the tougher league -- he can bounce back to the Willie Bloomquist 270/310/350 batting line that he ran in the weaker league.
Maybe he will. Zduriencik and Wakamatsu are better qualified to take that guess than I am.
We'll see,
Dr D

