Q.  What are the salaries for Gonzalez and Fielder again?

A.  Thusly:

AGone 2010:  $4.7m

AGone 2011: $5.6m

AGone 2010:  Free agent

Fielder 2010:  $11m

Fielder 2011:  6th arb year (figure $12-13m)

Fielder 2012:  Free agent (rep'ed by Scott Boras)

Here is an arbitration scorecard.  The highest arb awards to date are KRod's and Ryan Howard's, both at $10m even.

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Q.  Meaning the Grand Plan is...

A.  If Felix and Lee are going to be your Koufax and Drysdale for five years, you might very well plan on having the best ERA+s in baseball over those years.

You're still going to want to run OPS+ of 100-105.  This means you'll want to shoot for 110.

You can do that without marquee adds, but it would be a whale of a lot easier with an anchor to the lineup.  Even the 1990's Atlanta Braves, running ERA's of 120 and OPS's of 100, had lineup anchors -- Fred McGriff, Ryan Klesko, David Justice, Chipper Jones.

Zduriencik's Brewers teams brought marquee hitters to the Big Showdowns with the Big Dogs.  They had Carlos Lee and Geoff Jenkins, then Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.

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Q.  Would the M's have the chips to trade for a Gonzalez type?

A.  Every conversation I have with fellow bloggers, online, goes like this:

1. They:  we don't have the chips.  Fuhgeddaboudit.
2. We:  We could send w, x, y, and z.
3. They:  If they send THAT much, they'll get run out of town on a rail.

So, take it for what it's worth.  I will grant you that the ML-ready players are thinned out:  you've got Saunders, Mark Lowe, David Aardsma, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Matt Tuiasosopo and Jose Lopez in terms of people to help in 2010.  The glamor stuff, like Pineda, Triunfel, Liddi, Poythress etc. may be a ways out.

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Q.  Is it feasible to send 5 or 6 more moderate prospects, as opposed to three Morrows and Aumonts?

A.  Check the Dan Haren trade.  Billy Beane preferred volume.  He got six guys for Haren.

Here's a good analysis of the Haren trade, though the article is now outdated.  Beane took back one ML-ready player with star potential (Carlos Gonzalez) and then, stroking his chin, selected five value (not glamor) players from the DBacks' system.  Billy clipped Brett Anderson from this spec group.

The Haren booty would be much like the Padres taking Michael Saunders or Matt Tuiasosopo as the key to the deal, and then going through and taking Liddi, Halman, Cleto, Carp, and Pineda.

The Yankees' reported offer on Felix was similar.  They held back a few guys, and then said, Pick five.

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Q.  Does that nuke your system?

A.  You can only put 25 on the roster. With Gonzalez or similar, how much more do you need?

In this wild strip-mine scenario, the M's would still have Ackley, Saunders or Tuiasosopo, Josh Fields, Triunfel, Poythress, Carp, Raben, etc.

And I'm all for spending prospects, rather than $$.  The way Zduriencik's going, this team isn't going to need much reinforcement from the minors.

...

If the Mariners are going to build around Koufax and Drysdale, that's great.  They'll still need a cleanup hitter.

Cheers,

Dr D