Where do we stand?

So...I think we need to discuss where the organization stands for 2011. I'm quite sure Zduriencik is having very much this kind of internal debagte with his staff and with the higher-ups...when you've lost the season at the AS break, all of your efforts need to be geared toward maximizing your chances of improving in the next campaign.

So what does Seattle have penciled into its' 25-man roster as likely-to-return pieces it can try to build around?

THE LINE-UP:

RF) Ichiro Suzuki
3B) Chone Figgins
DH) Milton Bradley (right now, we're stuck here...sorry)
1B) Justin Smoak
CF) Franklin Gutierrez
LF) Michael Saunders
C) Adam Moore / Rob Johnson
SS) Josh Wilson
2B) Dustin Ackley

THE ROTATION:

1) King Felix
2) Jason Vargas
3) Michael Pineda
4) Doug Fister

THE BULLPEN:

1) Brandon League
2) Shawn Kelley

Am I missing anyone obvious? Seems like this club has a LOT of holes. A LOT of holes. And the worst thing is...none of those holes are in the line-up except SS and maybe DH if you can convince someone to take Bradley off your hands or find a better DH and shoehorn Bradley into a timeshare with Saunders. Or if you can find a better LFer, you can always trade Saunders and move on. But it would take a lot of creativity (which Z has) to turn over the batting order.

We have absolutely no valuable bullpen depth in the wings...other than perhaps Lueke. We need about five relief pitchers and at least two of them need to be left handed.

We have nothing worth having on the bench, either aside from back-up catcher and Bradley if you can get a real DH. We don't even have a utility infielder unless you plan to break Tui into the big leagues in that role. So what kinds of moves do we think Zduriecnik will make to try to fix the (at least) 11 roster holes in time for 2011?

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'11 is very likely a rebuild

'11 is very likely a rebuild year. This is why I'm against win now moves like Branyan and anything that isn't about the club in '12 and beyond.

This is also why you need to at least explore the possibility of trading Felix.

Felix is cheap for one more season in '11, then he makes $19mil per year over the following 3. Hes obviously still a very good value for even those seasons, but the MEAT of his value is in '10 and '11 when the Ms won't be contending.

Felix is a guy that I think is more valuable to another club in trade than he is to the Mariners in their current situation.

We've seen what Cliff Lee demanded in trade. Would you trade Felix for Montero+Betances+Stoneburner+others or a similar package from another team? Its an interesting question.

Just read Baker too and its

Just read Baker too and its interesting to see that he thinks Mariners value Jack Wilson and David Aardsma too highly to trade them..

I think you deal Jack Wilson just as a salary dump. The man's career is ending in front of our eyes. He can't hit anymore.

Aardsma is a little more difficult.. His trade value is at its lowest, but hes also very unlikely to be worth his salary in arbitration next year. I say hold out for a decent-ish prospect, and if you don't get it shop him in '11 instead. The risk is that he doesn't rebound of course.

Bullpen #1 priority

As you note ... tons of holes ... cannot expect (reasonably) to plug them all. So, you triage the situation.

What is absolute worst?

Some would say offense - but I would say bullpen. The offense has "some" reasonable expectation of natural improvement:

Figgins, Moore/Johnson, Saunders, Smoak ... that's 4 positions where "better than 2010" has gotta be viewed as likely.

Even Bradley at DH could be viewed as likely better than Griffey/Bradley at DH.

But, the bullpen, as you note, has ZERO obvious natural upgrades for 2011.

At best, you're looking at miracle rebounds or out-of-leftfield surprises.

I think what Jack will do is what he has done so far ... bring in a bunch of guys on cheap, 1-year contracts that most of the fans find repugnant ... and hope that one or two work out, while the farm keeps working to prepare the next-gen.

I think 2011 *could* be the year that Smoak, Saunders, Moore and Ackley *ALL* break out, (think second half for Ackley), while Peguero becomes the 2011 "must have" to replace Bradley.

The problem the fans have is that, even in a rebuilding year, you *HAVE* to put a body in every spot - even if your farm system doesn't have anyone remotely ready to take each spot. You don't just throw Josh Fields, Robles, Kasparek, and Erasmo Ramirez into Safeco because it's a rebuilding year and they're your favorites for helping the club in 2013.

Likely, Jack *HAS* to go out and pick up some rental-fodder to fill out the roster. Whether it is Jack Wilson or Christian Guzman playing short makes little difference when the club's SS-of-tomorrow is 3 years away.

As bad as the bullpen has

As bad as the bullpen has been since the Tex DFA and Lowe injury, it can't be a major priority over the other holes on the team. Maybe you trade the Lopezs and Aardmas for relief prospects before the deadline (generally much easier to pry away from teams if non-elite).

You don't want to give up valuable talent and/or $ though. Relievers are just too volatile, unpredictable, and overall not hugely important in face of the other parts of a team.

2011 needs to be about finding that SS at the MLB level (most important IMO), finding high-upside SP, and finding a DH. You may need to trade Felix to get some elite MLB-ready pieces, but you may need to consider that.

LF Saunders (possibly Halman), 2B Ackley, SP Pineda, 1B Smoak, C Moore/RJ. These guys will show whether or not they are future solutions. 3B Figgins will also show whether this is just a down season or beggining of decline.

The rest is just letting the kids fill spots and seeing what we've got. Theres too many holes for contention next year, but for the first time since the 90s we've actually got a whole bunch of young talent waiting to break in.

'11

I would imagine that Lopez goes but I do hope that Figgins is the one, However, this years performance and his long-term contract MIGHT make him less desirable. I'm just not seeing from Figgins this year enough to suggest that his '07 or '09 performance level is something we'll see 2 or three times over the remaining part of his contract. His '06 and '08 levels look more like his likely upside. You're paying him $9M, $9M, and $8M over the next three years. if he is a .270/.360/.360 guy you're WAY overpaying. He has 400 PA's this year andonly has TWELVE extra-base hits! Holy cats! That's TWENTY over the course of 700 PA's! His LD% is at a career low...but I'm sure not seeing him square the ball up at all. And I'm not buying that the move to 2nd is the cause. I'm wondering if we're seeing an early (age 32) decline.

Perhaps there is a Lopez AND Jack Wilson trade coming up Detroit. Jack is much the better glove than Josh..by a ton. But he is a fragile guy and the question becomes if you keep him around so he can play 120 games next year.

Anyway....He will probably stay and Lopez go. I wish it were the other way. If Lopez goes in the next 10 days, as Baker suggests, is does mean (I assume) that we will get the pleasure of watching a Smoak/Ackley right side of the IF for the rest of the year. A glimpse into the next 10 years, perhaps.

I'm convinced that Bradley is a sunk cost and dumping him could be the thing to do. But, to the tune of $12 million next year, the M's will keep him.

Saunders has shown that he can hurt MLB RIGHT-HANDED pitchers when they make a mistake inside. He has yet to show that he can drive the ball the other way. And he is currently worse that terrible vs. LHP. He is in need of a platoon badly! Check out Branyan's career aplits. Even early in his career he showed that he could slug a bit vs. LHP. Saunders has yet to show that. I'm still hoping (Broken record here, that Mike Wilson gets a shot at that plaoon, and some DH appearances, THIS season.)

So.

1. Ichiro--RF 2. Figgins--3B 3. Bradley--DH 4. Smoak-1B 5. Guti--CF 6. Saunders/?--LF 7. Moore/Johnson/Bard--C 8. Ackley--2B 9. J or J Wilson--SS.

A rotation with Felix/Fisteer/Vargas/Pineda isn't a bad place to start. But such a line up REQUIRES Figgins and Bradley to return to the .370-.380 OBP area and you'll need 45-50 extra-base hits from Bradley and 35 from Figgins. I don't think those guys have it in them. We will score a few more runs next year with that lineup (becasue we can't score a few less), but unless figgins and Bradley light it up, it won't be much more. So in a sense, like this year, the offense next year will depend on those two. Ouch!

I still think we brought

I still think we brought Branyan back for 2011 as well. That puts Bradley in a time share with him and Saunders for all 3 getting ABs between DH and LF (with Branyan giving Smoak some days off at 1B). Since Branyan and Bradley like to hurt themselves, having them back each other up isn't the worst idea.

The difference comes if Saunders gets moved for someone else's largess at a position we need more than LF. Bradley can play left, as can Tui, Mangini, Wilson, Halman, etc.

I can still see Saunders getting moved - though as well as he's doing against RHP it'd have to be a good offer.

Anybody have a decent SS they don't need, or a couple of relievers?

Two biggest problems

On offense, they are locked in with Ichiro, Figgins and Ackley, who are 1 and 9 or 2 hitters at this point. (Ackley may be a #3 someday, but not yet.)

Then they are locked in with C and SS who are bottom-of-the-order guys.

And they are locked in with Guti and (at least on a shared role) Saunders, who could produce but aren't MOTO guys.

That means the ONLY places to get 3-4-5 hitters is 1b (Smoak) and DH (Branyan? Bradley? Somebody they sign?)

They've pretty much built a lineup that REQUIRES Justin Smoak to become a MOTO bat more-or-less immediately. AND somebody to be productive at DH. AND even if you get that, that still means you've got too many table-setters and defense-first guys.

Pitching-wise, the Padres are making it pretty clear that the pitching-and-defense strategy REQUIRES a shut-down bullpen (although their offense as a whole is underrated, I think). We weren't even close to that.

Kelley obviously is important with Lowe gone and Fields apparently stalled out, but he and League can't do it all themselves even if they're effective.

Paredes has promise, but is untested. Lt. Hill is showing some results in relief coming off his injury, and they appear to be trying Cortes in the pen -- but, boy, talk about crapshoots. Lueke could be really good, but who knows how they'll treat him given the way they muffed the roll-out on the criminal charges.

And Bedard's lack of health probably denies them the luxury of using Pineda in the pen until they get some more help.

And bullpen isn't even easy to solve with money because no one wants to throw money or long-term deals at situational guys.

The problem isn't in style,

The problem isn't in style, but in production. A lineup full of leadoff hitters works really well.

The problem is that Figgins isn't hitting.. at all. This team has a .650 OPS. More SLG and less OBP would probably just make us worse. We need more SLG AND OBP. And pitching. And defense. And baserunning.

My take

2011 is of no concern to me. It's a developmental year for the young kids, and a money saving season.

Take the 10 million off the books (or roughly that amount) and bring in some spare parts to get through the year (SP, a bullpen arm, somebody to play 2B til Dustin is ready)

My focus is on 2012, when we will shed the 13 million owed to Milton, the 5 owed to Jack Wilson, the 5 for Branyan, plus about 10 million more.. That gives Jack a ton of financial flexibility in the FA market and trade market.

The main issue I forsee come 2012 is still a lack of power in the lineup. This is where the Chone Figgins was not well thought out when you couple it with Ackley's move to 2B. We will be stuck with a 34 year old Figgins playing a corner spot. A spot where we could have upgraded a found a legit power player. Lets all hope Figgins has a huge 2011 and we can move his contract.

Anyway, just to throw out what 2012 could possible look like:

1)Ichiro (RF)

2)Figgins (3B)

3)Ackley (2B)

4)Smoak (1B)

5)Big bat at DH via FA or trade

6)Guttierrez

7)Saunders

8)Moore

9)Some weak hitting SS most likely

Rotation:

1)Felix

2)Pineda

3)Paxton

4)Vargas

5)Fister

We'll likely also have some stud draft pick from 2011 like Cole, Gray, etc.. ready to jump into the middle of the rotation very quickley.

Bullpen has the chance to have a ton of flame throwers:

1)Brandon League

2)Shawn Kelley

3)Stephen Pryor

4)Josh Lueke

5)Dan Cortes

6)RRS

7)Robles

I think that's the makings of a strong team, particularly the pitching staff. I'm very excited about a bunch of the 2011 draft class arms. There are at least a handful of college arms who have top of the rotation stuff. You put them with Felix, Pineda,and Paxton (when he signs) and our rotation looks strong going forward.

It will be interesting to see where the offense goes from here though. I think we would ideally want two power bats, preferably at DH and 3B, but we're stuck with Figgins. I guess LF is an option if Saunders doesn't pan out. Anyway, 2012 should be the focus. Our young players will have gotten a good chunk of ML at-bats, and Jack will have a ton of money to use.

Lopez is going to hit big someday, but not for Seattle

There is so much talk about trading Lopez. Sure, do it, but Lopez will have his day in the sun eventually. He is one of those players that is in a Seattle only funk. The team continually invests in his breakout season that is certain to happen somewhere else.

How about trading him to the national league where people will forget about him. We don't need another Caros Guillen or Joel Piniero, another mediocre underperformer who lives to dominate the Mariners after all the organization had done for them.

I think Lopez will do well

I think Lopez will do well out of Seattle, but at this point you have no choice but to sell low.. He no longer fits and you're not going to extend him.

Lopey Nopey?

Lopez has a chance of putting up decent offensive numbers. I do agree that Lopez needs a career rejuvanation if he is to maximize his full potential. It's time to throw Lopez out into the big wide baseball world and let him fend for himself. I'm suspicous he may be doing a little coasting. See Ya Lopez.

Tis a sad time to behold

Tis a sad time to behold indeed in the M's blogosphere. It has been abruptly brought to my attention that it may be time to say good bye to a legend. And it is also my sad duty to report that "Jose (Snelling Yoda) Lopez" is on the trading block and could soon be gone. Yes I know, I speak for the majority when I say he will be sorely missed and that we shall be left in despair upon Jose's departure. It was always whispered in even the tightest of M's baseball circles that Jose was known as "The Little Lopie That Could". While a great deal of you also likened him to "Little Lopie the Jedi". There is one thing that is certain however, his bat was likened to that of a light saber. Yes a true thing of beauty and vibrancy, an art form of itself. So to you Jose Lopez I say.... Go my young knigt and be free. I bid a farewell to thee, and "May The Force Be With You".

Cole and Gray (and Rendon)

Interesting that you mentioned Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray, two college pitchers who looked to be out of reach (since it didn't look like we would be drafting in the top 5), but now are right in our sights (since we appear to be almost certain to draft in the top 5).

Both pitched this very night against Team Japan for the Team USA college team that is touring in preparation for the World University Baseball Championships.

Cole (UCLA) got the start and went 6.0 IP with 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. Gray (Vandy) replaced him and went 2.0 IP with 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K.

Anthony Rendon -- a 3b considered to be in the Longoria/Zimmerman class -- left the team after fracturing his ankle against Korea on 7/15. Not clear yet whether the injury affects his draft status. He has been expected to go at the very top, and therefore not likely to drop to Seattle unless we were to fade so far that we drop below Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The injury or signability issues combined with the Ms continued ineptitude now make it not impossible that he could end up being our pick.

Jackie Bradley Jr. of S.Car. and George Springer of UConn -- two other guys mentioned as possible Mariner picks -- are also on the team.

It's a little too early to

It's a little too early to tell if the team will in fact go with a heavily dominated rookie line up card. With that in mind, the above demonstrated lineup raises the stakes for the 2012 team. With as many young question marks as there are for the 2011 season I question the strength of the farm system for an effective back up plan. In other words the cuppord looks a little bear. From a different perspective, if the rookies do take the field it lowers the expectations for the FO to win.

Lopez

I'm still not sure why Lopez must go. He's in the worst year of his career...but he has proved to be a valuable glove at 3rd base, a factor that will not change. He's relatively young and relatively cheap. And he will not stick at this performance level. He's relatively young and can turn on a fast ball and can field a bit at third. You can live with that for 5 years.

On the other hand, Figgins is not that young, is not relatively cheap, and must get on base at a .370 ro so clip to have any offensive ability. I don't think he can get on base at that level over the rest of his career. And even at that level of OBP he has to have 42+ extra base hits to lug enough to be potent. Figgins has had two anomaly years

. In 2007 his BABIP was .391! It led to a .330 and .390+ avg and OBP. He can't hit those numbers aain. In 2009 he walked 101 times, combine that with his .298 avg. and 42 extra-base hits, and you get a fair offensive performer. But even in those two years he was still only a marginally better offensive performer that Lopez has been the last two years. Jose did nothing out of the ordinary the last two years but show a normal power progression. This year is a hiccup, I think.

For the next 3 years....on a dollar to production comparison. Jose is going to be the better player.

Right now, if the Tigers (or whoever) would like to have Figgins I'ld trade him in a heartbeat. His value as an addition was to help the M's be immediately competitive. That isn't happening. His M's value has dropped considerably. And I think his value to other teams has dropped considerably, too.

Bradley's value is gone, too (if he had any).

The best thing that happens now is that in a year we free up $12M when Bradley leaves.

Spend wisely. Purchase a masher. A Tater guy.

Oh...dump Figgins.

moe

If you could theoretically

If you could theoretically extend Lopez for cheap and trade Figgins, I'd probably do it. Unfortunetly Figgins is hitting his worst case scenario this year and is basically untradable.

One of 'em has to go.. Its Lopez by default.

By WAR: Lopez by

By WAR:

Lopez by year:

0.2

-0.3

0.6

0.4

3.9

1.7

0.8

Chone by year:

-0.2

1.4

3.0

4.4

0.3

2.8

2.5

6.9

0.2

Yes, last year's 6.9 will never be repeated. But Chone is a 2.5 WAR player with some spikes and some crashed to basically zero.

He's in a crash-to-zero year. It happens.

Lopez had has one year above 1.7. Yes, he's still youngish. No, he's not guaranteed to be better than Chone over the next 3 seasons, even if they are his prime seasons and Chone's decline ones. Jose still reminds me of Ronnie Belliard, and Ronnie never made the jump everyone would have liked him to make.

Jose's a nice kid, but he's movable and Chone isn't, not with this year's performance and the length and price of his contract. Neither is a great solution, but both absolutely cannot stay. All we have to do to dump Jose is wave goodbye. There's no need to do cartwheels and eat a bunch of the money Chone is owed to try to keep Jose - the likely difference in their performance for us isn't worth it.

Stuff happens

1. Before the game tonight the radio announcers were discussing Lopez and conditioning. According to those guys both Wak and the trainer have said that Lopez is in the best shape of his career and has set PR's in three different test areas (that are done with all players it sounds like), including (IIRC) lowest body fat and the agility drill. Sounds like some clubhouse love for Lopez. Yesterday i was reading on another, and frequently cranky, site and it was filled with references to a lazy and rotund Lopez. i can't speak to the lazy part (but it sounds like Wak and the trainer did) but lopez looks significantly svelter than last year.

2. Lopez is the guy that steps between Figgins and Wak, tonight. By all accounts that I can read Figgins was the aggressor and Wak did not respond with a punch or move. Sounds like Branyan cane to the skipper's aid, too.

3. Figgins gets yanked.

4. I still think that Figgy would look just great getting his $8-$9M in a Tigers' uni!

As far as the bullpen goes

I would suggest Ryan Rolwand-Smith could go back there, as he always pitched better in the bullpen (8.5 K/9 as a reliever compared to 4.4 K/9 as a starter). At DH you left out the possibility of retaining Branyan. I'm not terrified of the bullpen being a bit depleted, of the 17* (Jaime Burke doesn't count) guys that pitched in the bullpen in 2008, only 5 of them pitched in the Mariner's bullpen in 2009. It could be that Brian Sweeney and Chris Seddon will stick, maybe they'll put Luke French in the bullpen and his stuff will play up like Rowland-Smith's. I'm actually kind of hopeful for next year's roster, but after reading here, Lookout Landing, and USS Mariner, I think I may be the only one (posting at least). That's not to insult anyone, obviously there are more than enough warts on the roster to dissuade most.