When the rest of the world's crazy...

When you think the rest of the world is crazy, it's time to start worrying about yourself :- ) but...

Roto-Champ Taro demands that Dr. D admit he's wrong about F-Gut. Here's my last statement on Franklin Gutierrez. (Famous last words!)

...................

First thing Taro m'man: you're picking a little uptick in his offense ... he spikes up to 99 for a second and BOOM "it's time you admit you were wrong". That's point A.

Let's see whether Gutierrez ever posts the 110-120 OPS+ seasons that Cammy did in Seattle -- let's see Gutierrez put a 109 and 123 OPS+ IN THE BANK -- and then I will call him a minor star, as Cammy was a minor star for a few years.

=== Framin' the Debate ===

Wrong about what, by the way? What is it you think I have asserted about Franklin Gutierrez ?

................

My fundamental opinions about Gutierrez are -- and have always been -- that

(1) the jury is out on his offense;

(2) he's a terrible match for Safeco offensively;

(3) I'm not sure whether he is GOOD vs. GREAT on defense, but considering his lack of speed, I'm skeptical that he's great.

What about that has been proven wrong? :- )

Prior to this season, I *did* say that it was open to some question whether he was going to be a starting outfielder in the major leagues. I'd say he has resolved that one. At this point it looks clear that he will be at least an average-solid regular, and there's some room (20%) for his developing into an impact starter.

=== Guess I'm Hallucinating Here Dept. ===

Because my eyes are indeed telling me something different from what EVERYbody in the world believes about Franklin Gutierrez.

....................

I remember when the biggest Seattle blog published, straight-faced, that Mike Cameron saved the Seattle Mariners 80 doubles per season. That's 80 doubles more than some other quality center fielder, not 80 doubles more than you or me.

And everybody nodded, yup. He's that good.

Cameron turned out to be an excellent outfielder, but the idea that he was saving 40, 50, 60 runs per year -- shaving .50 off the staff ERA or whatever -- turned out to be just a wee bit of hyperbole. Check out his UZR/150s: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&position=OF

Dr. D was the only man in the world who, prior to the 2004 season, protested that Mike Cameron was benefitting from the park and was overrated defensively. But check those fangraphs stats.

Is Mike Cameron perhaps the best CF in the game? Maybe. But that's "best among peers." One good outfielder is only a shade better than another good outfielder. Nobody saves 30 runs more than Torii Hunter does.

=== Jumps and Angles Dept. ===

Franklin Gutierrez LOOKS to me like he gets nice jumps, but then so do most ML center fielders. When is the last time you were able to catch an ML CF not-in-stride when the ball was hit?

Gutierrez unquestionably judges the landing point of the ball EXTREMELY well, but then again, ML outfielders who can't do that, don't play out there very long. Not unless they're cleanup hitters.

.................

I can tell you with absolute 100% certainty that Franklin Gutierrezhas mediocre speed compared to other ML center fielders. He doesn't steal bases; he doesn't get triples; he hits the ball in the SS hole and gets thrown out by three steps.

So if he's losing 1-2 strides over 30 yards to, say, Ichiro, how the deuce is he getting it back off the starting blocks? Much less gaining 2 strides out of thin air someplace? Have you ever seen a 100-meters guy jump out of the blocks 10 feet ahead of anybody else? He's trying for one foot, not ten feet.

If Franklin Gutierrez doesn't lose a stride to Ichiro over 30 yards, why the deuce is he not stealing bases? That +1 stride is exactly why other guys can steal bases and Franklin Gutierrez cannot.

I can tell you with near certainty that Mike Cameron was a better defender than Gutierrez is. Cammy did everything F-Gut does, but with speed into the bargain. Yet Cameron wasn't a miracle man with the glove, either.

=== Sound Bites Dept. ===

The Mariners themselves have consistently given the hard-sell on TV, using zone ratings and other saber stats to advise soccer mom that Gutierrez wins lots of games with his glove. Nobody's blaming them there. The broad point is a fair one: they overhauled a 100-game loser by getting ballplayers who play the game the right way, and it's a good thing for fans to pay attention to the less-visible parts of the game.

I'd be curious to know whether Blengino's saber crew sincerely believes that Gutierrez saves a kazillion runs *compared to other fine center fielders,* but it doesn't worry me much either way.

=== If Not A, then Not B, so.... ===

Fett protests, reasonably, that being a track guy doesn't make you a great outfielder. I agree completely. Claudell Washington was actually a bad outfielder. Claudell might have been the fastest player ever to make a 25-man roster, him or Donnell Nixon, but Washington's RF's were way below average.

But I'm saying "If Not A, then Not B" and Fett's trying to prove that wrong with "If A, Not Necessarily B". :- )

ASSERT: If you didn't have a pony, you weren't going to deliver mail, 200 years ago. REFUTE: Hey, look at that guy, he has a pony, and he doesn't deliver mail... ?

The counter doesn't apply. It is definitely true that to be a world-class outfielder you need instincts. The 30 center fielders in the majors have them. Claudell Washington and Juan Pierre don't. But what does that prove?

=== Damning With Faint Praise, Dept. ===

I suspect that Gutierrez is a very fine outfielder, playing in the best fielder's position in baseball, and that everybody WANTS to believe he's great. Every person in Seattle would love to believe that Franklin Gutierrez is a glorious center fielder. Love the enthusiasm.

I think he is a very good center fielder, was a nice pickup, is a key part of the rebuild, and I'm glad to have him here. As far as his being Richie Ashburn out there, I say the emperor has no clothes on.

I could be wrong. As with Mike Cameron's -80 doubles saved per season, time will tell.

=== Can You Win Your Next Pennant With This Player Dept. ===

So here's a guy who OPS+'s 95, give or take, and he plays a glove spot, and he's one of the league's best defenders there.

Can you win a pennant with that player? Of course. The more so since he's an arb player. Salary considered, Gutierrez is a major plus towards a pennant run over the next few years.

........................

If Dustin Ackley is Robin Ventura with the stick, then I'm playing Dustin Ackley in CF and then getting a 300/400/500 guy for left. If you guys want Ackley for LF, it's okay by me. :- )

-Jeff

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"When you think the rest of

"When you think the rest of the world is crazy, it's time to start worrying about yourself :- ) but..."

No offense Doc, as an analyst you point some things out that nobody else can.. but I think that about sums it up. :-)

Even my wife, who has ZERO interest in baseball but was once a top softball player in Japan, thinks Gut is one of the best players on the team along with Ichiro, Felix, and Branyan.

Right. :- )

The fact that everybody disagrees with me, serves to keep me alert that maybe I'm out to lunch on this one.

We'll see.

In defense of defense

Okay - I don't trust *ANY* of the individual defensive metrics. None. I'll look at 'em. I'll ponder 'em. I'll even admit that twice a year even a broken stat can be right. But, my general feeling remains that today we are a good decade away from REACHING the "leeches and bloodletting" stage of scientific knowledge in regards to individual defensive measures.

That said - I do believe the DER - the simplest TEAM measure is a stat 'mostly' devoid of pollution of methodology. It's worth for analysis is debateable, but it's at least a mostly fair starting point.

PREMISE: F-Gut is simply being helped out by a park which skews results to make him look better than he is.

PROOF: For this to be true - if the park is genuinely helping out the fielder, then I would EXPECT to see a better BABIP at home than on the road.

CODICILE: The team based stat doesn't prove anything about any specific player - but when only a couple of players are changed from a defense, and defensive results change dramatically, it is not unreasonable to assume that some portion of that change, (perhaps a significant portion), is drawn from those new players.

==================

FACTS:

2009 home/road splits: thru 7/1/2009: (Seattle Pitching - hitting line allowed) - 80 more road PAs.

HOME: .245/312.361/.673 -- BABIP = .287 -- K/9 =7.1 -- K/BB 2.17 -- 29-HR; 57-2B

AWAY: .255/.332/.409/.741 -- BABIP = .281 -- K/9 = 6.4 -- K/BB 1.73 -- 44-HR; 70-2B

Of note -- BABIP is superior on road. 15 extra road HRs. In 80 PAs, road defense has allowed 33 extra hits total, (15 of them being HRs), leaving 18 additional defensible hits in thos 80 PAs. Pitching has allowed 20 more walks and gotten 16 fewer Ks in those 80 PAs. The defensive home/road difference seems to be VERY significantly tied up in XBHs, with 23 more doubles on the road. Though the BABIP is better on the road, the home/road allowed line is 10 points of BA more on the road, 20 points more OBP, and 48 points more slugging.

In looking at the pre-Gut home/road BABIP split, (2008): .306-BABIP at home; .313 road.

Since the addition of F-gut, the home/road BABIP split for the team has swung 13 points AWAY from the park being a help, (at least in terms of getting defensively generated outs). However, there does seem to be a very real drop in DOUBLES. That actually supports the notion that the park is "holding up" balls - but the result isn't actually more outs, it appears to be less damaging hits. (Does UZR or any other metric adjust for bases advanced?)

At this moment, the team DER is .699 (4th in the AL). The 2008 DER was .680, 13th in the AL. What cannot be disputed is the defense has improved drastically from '08 to '09. The defensive changes have been: Endy, F-Gut, Branyan and Johnson. How to divide credit can be debated. But, Seattle HAS gone from 12th in hits allowed to #1 in fewest hits allowed.

I don't trust defensive stats

I don't trust defensive stats INDIVIDUALLY either, but when nearly all of them are saying the same thing I think it shows something. The fact that the stats back up my eyes doesn't hurt either. :-)

Even so the point of DER and reduced XBHs is a good one. I think if you were to split it up in OF DER and IF DER the result would be even more drastic (don't know where to look that up though).

We must be watching different players

Touche on the logic point Doc. But I think its a bit condescending to say Gut has instincts, just like any other CF. His instincts are outstanding and I and even my little brother who only cheers Felix and Ichiro because he knows I love them is often saying "wow" when watching Franklin play center. I don't know what you're seeing that is so different... whatever he looks like coming out of the batter's box or trying to steal, he looks outstanding any time he tracks a ball. And let's not forget the hand-eye coordination that's required to make outstanding catches/jumps/dives either...

What do steals have to do with anything?

Good point Fett on saying it doesn't matter what he looks like on the base paths. Stealing is a completely different skills set, IMHO, than tracking down a ball. There have been lots of players through the years that have had plus plus speed but couldn't steal a base to save thier lives. Stealing a base is just as much about good judgement, reading the pitcher, and the art of suprise as it is pure speed and acceleration. In fact a good base stealer many times doesn't earn his steal with great speed or even a great jump, but with a great slide. Maybe Gutz has a hard time reading pitchers, or isn;t experinced enough at it. Maybe Franklin needs to learn the hook slide. Maybe Franklin feels like stealing is too big of risk, both statistically and injury wise. Maybe Franklin just doesn't LIKE to steal bases?

Anyways it doesn;t matter F-Gutz steals has little to no bearing on his defense and it isn;t even a good measure of how fast he is.

Your logic that F-Gutz does not steal, therefore he is not fast, therefore he can't be a great defender is just as bad as Fetts :)

Can we move this debate forward please?

How 'bout instead of using highly subjective terms to describe his value, and highly subjective terms to explain his abilities, why don't you guys start out by stating how many runs he is worth? How many runs do you think he is saves beyond an average center fielder over 150 or 160 games? It seems to me he is at least +5, but no more than +15 (thats true talent, his recorded performance could vary by 5 runs or more). That means a maximum of 1 win between the most optimistic and pessimistic views. Is that a big deal? Is that the difference between a solid player and a star? No and no. Most likely you two are really not that far apart which would make arguing over whether he has incredible instincts or just really good instincts a waste of time. He's probably around a 3-win player as is, and whether or not he is worth more than that hinges on whether his bat takes a leap forward, not how you parse his defense.

If anything I think its

If anything I think its controversial to hold him in the +5-15 range per 150 games. Bill James' plus/minus had him at +55 plays in RF from '06-08 in LIMITED PT. UZR has him as a CAREER 19.8 runs above-average in CF. His RZR is rediculous. PMR loves him.

Even RF/9 has him at 0.20 putouts+assists above league average CF CAREER per 9 innings. Guess how many putouts+assists above average that puts him in CF per 150 games? THIRTY.

Most of the metrics seem to rate him as around a +20 CF and my eyes back that up. Some of the catches hes been making are just plain Nintendo. I think hes an even BETTER CFielder than Mike Cameron was in his prime. Hes the top CF in the game and a legit +15-20 CF, +10-15 at the VERY least is you're pessemistic on him.

His WAR in less than a half season? 2.2 already. Hes going to be a 4+ WAR player this season EASY, he'll pull a 5 WAR season if his offense+defense stay this good. If you're WILDLY pessemistic beyond all the numbers and obvious skill watching him play D and see him as a +10 CF, then hes STILL going to be a 4 WAR player if the offense stays the same.

Gut is awesome. If you shift the argument to a more proper range of +10-20 (keeping in mind that hes actually BEEN +20 according to most metrics) and his offense stays where it is RIGHT now, then you're arguing over whether Gut is a fulltime 4-5 WAR player (Cameron prime level). If his offense IMPROVES and he keeps his D in the +15-20 range? Thats a superstar level player.

Uhhh... All the time?

When is the last time you were able to catch an ML CF not-in-stride when the ball was hit?

I see this happen ALL the time. Last night Melky Cabrea misjudged at least 5 balls hit to him. Moved in and then had to race back, or sprinted out to the wall just to have to come back for it. Lucky for him the M;s were just hitting lazy pop flys that he had mucho time to settle under, but a line drive to the track like F-Gutz ran down (incidentally off Cabreas bat) the other night? He wouldn't have gotten close enough to even catch with a lacrosse stick!

In the first game against NY there were several bloopers that Damon, Cabrea and the rest of the so so defenders the yanks have in the outfield let drop in for base hits, not because they weren't fast enough to get them, and not because the ball didn;t stay in the air for a good long time, but because it took them to a count of 3 to decide whether to run up or run bakc, to run right or run left. Who cares if you have all the speed in the world if you don;t know what direction to run? And if you are unsure of where to run you certainly WONT be running at top speed, where as a guy like Franklin who DOES know where to run and the correct path to get there can run as fast as possible to get there because he is sure of himself. That is where a lot of the big difference between foot speed (needed to steal bases) and playing speed (the speed at which you actually play) comes from. It is similar to why a guy like Yvenson Benard can run all over the Pac-10 even though he only ran about a 5 second 40. Yv had the vision and instict to play at a high speed.

Anyways, the stats back Taro and other up F-Gutz runs UZR's that are 1.5 times BETTER than Camerons, who many people think was the best CF of all time!

Watch Melky Cabrera, Doc

You really don't think jumps, routes and positioning can change a player from a good fielder to a poor one? Just watch Melky Cabrera attempt to play center field. He was mentioned in another post regarding yesterday's game, but in today's game, he whiffed on an easy out hit by Ichiro because he took two steps in and over before turning to go back and over and he didn't hit his top running speed until he was reaching up for the ball, he ran two steps straight in and then turned and lunged back on a ball that Gutierrez would have been under easily, just barely making the catch, he took 3 steps in and left and then had to go back and harder left to run down a routine flair to RCF...Gutierrez essentially NEVER makes those kinds of mistakes...his routes never look geometric like that.

Guess what Melky's UZR/150 in CF is?

-7.9

Doc, is Cabrera slower than Gutierrez? His higher SB rate and more triples say he is not. It's all about the jumps and reads and routes.

I don't get what the disconnect here is.

Cabrera not much of a CF'er

Melky Cabrera isn't much of a CF'er though. -8 UZR/150 in CF for his career. Maybe Ryan Sweeney is a better "average CF'er".

CFers by UZR/150 - all track stars?

In this season, there are 28 CFers with at least 350 innings at the position:

Colby Rasmus (24) - 1 3B, 1 SB
Franklin Gutierrez (21) - 1 3B, 5 SB
Brett Gardner (19) - 4 3B, 17 SB (first track star)
Matt Kemp (19) - 5 3B, 19 SP (second track star)
Coco Crisp (18) - 3 3B, 13 SB
Ryan Sweeney (10) - 1 3B, 4 SB
Mike Cameron (8) - 1 3B, 4 SB
B.J. Upton (7) - 1 3B, 29 SB (third)
Curtis Granderson (6) - 2 3B, 13 SB
Carlos Gomez (5) - 3 3B, 7 SB
Chris Young (3) - 2 3B, 11 SB
Aaron Rowand (3) - 1 3B, 4 SB
Brian Anderson (1) - 0 3B, 2 SB (6 CS, BTW)
Michael Bourn (1) - 6 3B, 25 SB (fourth)
Kosuke Fukudome (1) - 2 3B, 6 SB
Willy Taveras (1) - 1 3B, 15 SB (fifth - lacks the power to hit triples)
Cody Ross (-3) - 0 3B, 3 SB
Grady Sizemore (-4) - 2 3B, 7 SB (something is very wrong with him this year)
Torii Hunter (-4) - 1 3B, 13 SB
Nate McLouth (-5) - 1 3B, 10 SB
Marlon Byrd (-7) - 1 3B, 3 SB
Carlos Beltran (-8) - 1 3B, 11 SB (running on a deeply bruised leg, but sixth track star)
Jordan Schaefer (-8) - 0 3B, 2 SB
Jacoby Ellsbury (-9) - 3 3B, 33 SB (seventh)
Dexter Fowler (-11) - 3 3B, 14 SB
Adam Jones (-12) - 2 3B, 5 SB
Shane Victorino (-15) - 5 3B, 13 SB (eighth)
Vernon Wells (-37) - 2 3B, 12 SB

So...the really really fast outfielders seem to be spread all aroud this leaderboard...there's essentially no correlation at all between speed-score components and UZR/150. And can you make the argument that Vernon Wells is significantly slower than Franklin Gutierrez, Doc? No...he's not a track star, but Wells isn't Edgar Martinez playing center. The difference in speed between the slowest center fielder and the fastest one...is going to be very small. The difference in defensive skill...is NOT going to be small. UZR suggests that the range is +/- 20 runs every year (that's 40 runs difference, Doc...and this happens every year...it's not a fluke that only happens every once in a while).

Gutierrez is a +20 run defensive center fielder right now...not taking the word of UZR blindly but observing the way he plays. He's not just good at getting a quick jump...he's SENSATIONAL at it. He's not just good at taking the proper route, he's the best I've EVER SEEN at it...Ichiro being pretty close but not quite as skilled at running routes. He's not just mindlessly aggressive like Torii Hunter...he's intelligently aggressive. He's everything you could possibly want in a technically proficient glove master in CF. If he had trackstar speed, he might be one of the greatest defensive players of all time.

Unless you're prepared to argue that UZR is so completely wrong that it could be missing by 57 runs (the gap between Wells and Gutierrez)...the idea that trackstar speed is the #1 thing you need to be a better than MLB average CFer is busted by the facts. Speed helps...but Gutierrez isn't slow and speed is not the only thing.

edit

Just watch Melky Cabrera, just watch Ichiro

Matt wrote about Melky Cabrera so I will add about watching Ichiro.

Gutz speed to the ball is not only the rout he takes.

He is termedous fast to balls hit behind him.

He can do that by not watching the ball hit to him.

He sees the ball in rise, than he runs to the warning track in full speed with the face to the wall, than look back and catch the ball.

Ichiro can do that too.

But not all OF can do that.

Melky Cabrer always look at the ball when running today.

Good observation, Naka-san

I've noticed Ichiro's plays on line drives are a lot less shaky than guys like Cabrera and Damon because he knows where it's going to go and he doesn't have to use his depth perception to look the ball into his glove. It's very difficult to catch a line drive hit right at you if you need to watch it the whole time to figure out where your glove should be...Damon missed a ball hit right at him two nights ago because he didn't know where to stand and where to put his glove...he guessed wrong, ran too far forward and then awkwardly leaned back and the ball popped right off his glove. You almost never see that with Ichiro and I would argue that Gutierrez is even better than Ichiro at this skill.

107 OPS+ now Doc. Was it

107 OPS+ now Doc. Was it really an upstick or is my prediction of a breakout offensive season for Gutz becoming true? .339 wOBA, 20.7 UZR/150, 2.5 WAR! :-)

The star performances from Ichiro, Felix, Branyan, and Gutierrez are what we can thank for the Ms suprising season.