NBA Pennant-Race Translation

Q. Is it okay to keep rooting for the 2009 Mariners to close the gap?

A. I certainly am. I don't believe the M's are out of it. They've got little margin for error now, of course.

We were intrigued by Crusty Juggler's quote of Jason Churchill, to wit "Churchill wrote another reply that the names he's heard so far are not names a selling team would get. In a nutshell, that Zduriencik is BUYING and not selling."

Honestly, I don't get the rush to quit. :- ) It reminds me a little bit of being on campus and listening to the students demanding (from everybody!) a formal statement that America is a pox on humanity.

I know. The Great-Satan-food-fight is not the most proportional, or pleasant, analogy. The point is, what's the payoff? Why spend your energy on extracting a statement that we're all losers?

Q. Why resign? Because, Sherlock, if we can't win it, we've got to position ourselves for later.

A. Zduriencik himself, when quoted, says that his goal is to get better now AND later.

How? Again, every roto champ knows: you simply trade players you don't like for players that you do like.

If Jack Zduriencik doesn't care for Clement and Morrow, and trades them for (say) Brignac and Kazmir in a package, then in his mind he HAS positioned for 2010 and 2011 -- and very well might make the 2009 M's better too.

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Why the assumption that you can't re-load on the fly -- while competing? Boston and the Angels do it all the time.

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Look. If you can really trade Jarrod Washburn for Reid Brignac, then do it. We all agree on that. What we don't agree on is quitting just for the sake of issuing a statement.

Q. But (sob) Baseball Prospectus has us at -4% to win the division.

A. That formula assumes that you are playing with Strat-O-Matic cards.

Granted, if this season were a computer sim, the year would be over. Real baseball teams are not computer sims!

GET THIS POINT STRAIGHT. The "2% chance to win the division" is assuming DICE ROLLS on the pitcher-batter matchups. Of course you're going to see 4,000 AB's smooth out and leave the #2 team behind.

REAL teams GET hot and cold. They get injuries. The Angels could very easily hit a slump, and a long one. That's not a reach; it's life.

The blog-o-sphere takes those Strat-O-Matic dice-roll sims wayyyyyyy too seriously. 4,000 dice rolls, vs. the 25-man clubhouse at Safeco, now THAT is apples and oranges, baby.

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Again, you're running behind the leader in a X-country race, your job is to give him a chance to falter.

Q. What's D-O-V's basketball "translation" on July 29?

A. Well, 60 games to go, that's easy enough: 6 minutes left in the third quarter. (37.5% of the contest left.)

-7.5 down .... I think it's pretty reasonable to just double the GB and equate it to points in basketball. You're down 15 points in the NBA with 6:00 3Q.

I wouldn't triple it. That would mean that the 1995 M's came from 35 points down, right? :- )

Q. Sigh. OK, gimme an example then.

A. The last time a baseball team blew a 7-game lead was ... 2007. SEPTEMBER '07, as in. (Unless I forgot somebody from 2008, which I mighta.)

Hey, the Mets lost five in a row and boom. Now we're playing a weekend series for the lead. You feel me?

Here's a cool article on teams losing leads. These situations DWARF the situation the M's are in, of course.

The Angels blowing +7 in July would not be historic. Blowing a +7 lead in July isn't even notable. It's probably occurred several times recently and we don't even remember them.

Q. What's it gonna take?

A. A week of lousy play by the Angels.

They're on streaks of 13-3 and 23-8. The M's are about where they've always been -- a handful of games over .500. It ain't that the M's got lousy; the Angels are demoralizing us.

Let's hope that the Mariners' players have more heart than we do. :- ) If Wok keeps them at it, we're a small Angels slump from sitting up again.

Q. How many games left with the Angels?

A. Six games remain between the Mariners and Angels in 2009. A home-and-home* in early September. You gotta be within five games when the Angels come in on August 31.

Then, you go even 4-2, you're within three games with 17 to play. That's down to the wire. Or if you go 5-1, then...

Properly timed, Felix and Bedard could start four of the six (Aug 31-Sept 10 and Sept 2-Sept 8).

Cheers,

Dr D

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Excellent Summation

Great essay, Doc. Your take in many ways echoes my own ... which is, you don't DECIDE to quit OR to throw caution to the win -- you make your choice based upon the choices you're given. As you note, Z has been clear he's TRYING to do both - play for now AND tomorrow. Including Wash in a deal isn't a slam-dunk surrender on 2009 ... it depends on what is coming back in that deal. Trading away Bedard and Wash and Branyan and Aardsma for prospects - THAT is giving up on 2009.

And I agree that it is "possible" to do both, (with the right trade). But, it is *HARD* to do both, because the typical trading partner is going to typically lean more toward the extreme buy or sell position. So, half the guys dealing are going to have zero interest in giving up ANY player that is immediately useful (and critical to their pennant chases) -- while the teams OUT of the pennant race are only going to be interested in getting prospects and cutting salary.

Attempting to construct trades that help today AND tomorrow is certainly the ultimate goal of any GM, (or it should be), but is also the most difficult of all deals to pull off. Which is why I have noted previously that standing pat is NOT necessarily a bad choice ... just a reflection on the quality of the deals offered.

Do I think the club SHOULD give up? No. Do I believe they have a "realistic" chance at the post-season? No. But realistic is not synonymous with none. Honestly, I believe the return of RRS is precisely what the club needed to put itself in a position where it could deal Washburn without actually taking a major hit to the rotation, (assuming, of course, that Bedard can come back 100% -- but if Erikkk doesn't bounce back, is ANY trade going to save 2009?).

Getting Bedard and Beltre back into the lineup in mid-August is the kind of spark that COULD ignite a mad dash to the finish line, (assuming the club can actually fix the offensive nightmare at short). While playoffs are unlikely - the 2 critical areas I see are SS, (duh), and the bullpen. The pen has been crumbling for awhile, and none of the mid-season help I was hoping for has materialized thus far. If Z pulls off a miracle trade that saves 2009, my guess would be Wash leaves -- the club gets a decent SS and a veteran bullpen arm in the process.

As to which prospects go with Wash? I already posted my take that catcher is the position the club can most afford to deal from -- without hurting itself for the future. What *I* would love to see would be a deal that includes Wash and Kenji, (though I'd pity any team that received both of them in the same package).

Buy/sell paradigm is ESPN hype

Z wants Gutierrez-type players with talent ready to contribute. He will use whatever bargaining chips he has. Washburn is one of them. So is Clement. Sounds like he might use both, and it makes perfect sense.

Kazmir is a logical pickup, leaving Z free to trade Wash but also free to keep him.

Based on the totality of the rumors and reporting, this rumor strikes me as the most plausible:

Clement and Morrow to Rays for Kazmir (he has four consecutive seasons of double-digit wins and 116 or higher ERA+, so he won't come for free even though he's struggling this year)

Aaron Pribanic to WSox for Brent Lillibridge (speedy middle infield/utility guy who has been totally awful in his MLB chances so far -- you folks from the Northwest will know more about him).

With probably some other tinkering around the edges with PTBNL and the like.

It is obvious that Clement is involved, and it seems clear that Pribanic is too.

Well, here it is: Wilson and Snell

Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson, one of the staples of this season's trade market, was dealt to the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday as part of a seven-player deal.

Going to the Mariners along with Wilson is right-hander Ian Snell.

The rebuilding Bucs received a five-player package from Seattle, headlined by top catching/first base prospect Jeff Clement. Also going to Pittsburgh are shortstop Ronny Cedeno and a trio of right-handed pitchers -- Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock.

Wilson, 31, a 2004 All-Star, batted .267 in 75 games with the Pirates.

Snell had struggled in 15 starts (2-8, 5.36) with the big-league club but has been lights out since being demoted to Triple-A Indianapolis, where he was 2-2 with an 0.96 ERA and had 47 strikeouts in 37 1/3 innings.

Of the five players dealt by Seattle, only Cedeno comes off the big-league roster. Cedeno also is in an 0-for-24 drought after going 0-for-4 in Tuesday night's victory over the Indians.

Clement was batting .288, with 14 homers and 68 RBIs, at Triple-A Tacoma.

I like it

Snell is the key to this deal. Wilson is a very nice defensive glove who will make our defense better, and be a prototypical #8 or #9 hitter - 270 average, maybe 5-10 HR, no real speed.

For whatever reason, Clement was dead to this team. I'm not sure I completely understand what happened there. If you agree with that assesment, this looks like a good trade for the M's.

I know nothing about the 3 arms except they are all doing decently in Low-A ball and thus seem a long way aways from the majors. Happily exchange all three of them for the return of Ian Snell to 2007 form. He's just 27 and was done with Pittsburgh and was dominating AAA. It will be interesting to see where his mental state is and how he takes to Seattle.

As Doc suggested, this is a trade that makes us better in 2010 AND 2009.

Wlad and (presumably) Washburn still on the block.

I fell so much better with Z in charge.

I think we see the pattern

Snell could be the pitcher version of Gutierrez. Still young with the big-time talent to bust out in the right setting.

Wilson is Endy Chavez. Professionalism and defense. More expensive, but also at a more important position. Looks like Z will always have a couple of these types batting in the bottom of the order.

Three low-minors pitchers is a lot, but the chances are virtually nil that any one of the three would have a season close to seasons that Snell has already had.

Now let's see what Washburn will fetch. One would hope for OFFENSE.

C-Points

And from where I sit, Endy Chavez is a good idea, if he's playing SS or CF.

Trader Jack has no paradigms

Everyone is looking for a pattern. I believe the pattern with Jack Zduriencik is..."get the best player in the deal". Period. End of story. Now part of his analysis of who the best player in the deal is rests on his talent evaluation...rests on his view of what the club needs from the players he's looking at and his view of a player's contribution to the atmosphere he's trying to build in the clubhouse. But I honestsly believe his entire philosophy, summed up in one line, is, "make the team better with every move"