=== Hidden Dynamics ===
When the first concrete rumor came up -- Hicks and Ramos -- cyber-Seattle's reaction was that this was (1) misinformation, no way Lee is worth that, or (2) Zduriencik better take that within 24 hours or it proves he's a moron....
SSI's and MC's reaction was that Zduriencik should turn it down. Neither Hicks nor Ramos were likely to be difference-makers.
We're not going to google it but let's not quibble. Those who recommended passing on Hicks-Ramos were rebuked, sharply, for "not understanding" the real trade market. It says here that the chastised rightfully get their one post to mark down the score as to who understood the real trade market. :- )
Sell the sizzle, not the steak. Cliff Lee is a difference-maker, squared -- a guy that teams know will win them playoff games. Teams in other cities prioritize the World Series very, very highly. That was understanding the trade market: understanding other teams' thirst for victory.
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It doesn't do any good to say that teams should realize that the playoffs are a crapshoot, and should stick to their spreadsheets. Most teams just don't agree that the playoffs are beyond their control. Even if the playoffs were beyond their control, the sincerity of a team's effort to win it all matters in its brand.
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=== Lesson Learned Dept. ===
Let's get closure on this 3-year debate. You can't use this 2-D paradigm to project "correct" and "incorrect" trades because there is a 3-D world that GM's live in.
A shot at winning the World Series, a chance to leverage your franchise's "brand," a chance to prove that you are selling a quality (sincerely competitive!) sports product -- that is the strategic concern that CEO's and GM's must attend to.
The Rangers did not trade Justin Smoak for 12 starts' worth of Cliff Lee because they could make the $/WAR balance out. Any attempt to $/WAR-balance Justin Smoak against 12 starts of Cliff Lee is a rationalization.
The Rangers did it because the value of making an impact in the World Series, and the value of proving beyond any doubt that you are sincere about competing -- especially if you've never done it before -- is incalculable.
Run the $/WAR numbers. We need to have them as one piece of the data picture. But don't publish them as the "correct" paradigm and criticize the Rangers and Yankees for veering off. Fan enthusiasm is the correct paradigm; they're not selling widgets out there.
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You might say that the Rangers' "brand" and the Coke "brand" is baloney and speculation. Forbes, however, will be glad to value it for you.
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Cheers,
Dr D
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