Strasburg's Injury Risk

Q. Maybe it's true that we should have preferred Ackley to Strasburg. Strasburg's motion looks like Prior's to me.

A. Ackley's a hitter and Strasburg a pitcher. No doubts there.

...............

Remember that, our amateur-attempts to understand pitching motions aside ... the harder a guy throws a ball and the more people he strikes out, the better his chances are.

Take 100 rookies in baseball history who had huge K rates, and another 100 rookies with tiny K rates, and I'll guarantee you that the high-K group suffered many, many fewer injuries. Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens being the pictures worth 1,000 words.

And that's got to be even MORE true when the high-K guys had low walks. A great CTL speaks to better mechanics.

But we're talking tendencies, of course. Some high-K pitchers get hurt, of course.

Q. Does Strasburg's motion look risky to you?

A. Well, it does indeed have a bit of elbow-above-the-shoulder to it. Here's a discussion.

But we are all, every one of us, shooting in the dark about that. We know very little about mechanics and their effects on injuries.

Personally, *I* take it as self-evident that the lower your elbow, the less stress on the shoulder; I mean, girls' fastpitch stars never hurt their shoulders. How much do you weight this single factor of elbow angle? Who knows. I don't.

Q. What are the risk factors?

A. As I see it, the top seven are:

1) Velocity (higher velo = less health risk)

2) Workload (more pitches under strain = more health risk)

3) History (proven ability to handle workload without DL time = less health risk)

4) Pitching mechanics

5) Shape of pitches (sideways-breaking pitches torque elbow ligaments; vertical pitches are easy on elbow)

6) Body shape (longer, whippier, more centrifugal motions = less health risk)

7) Pitcher age and handedness (older = less health risk; LH = less health risk)

Half the world guaranteed that Tim Lincecum was a huuuuuge risk because they laser-focused on two factors: he's short, and he ran real high pitch counts in college. They waved off the other five factors, and they paid the price.

There was a tiebreaker with Lincecum: the way he felt after 140 pitches.

For me, the tiebreaker with Strasburg is that, like Nolan Ryan, he was born to throw a baseball. Other guys can't throw 101 in the 7th. Strasburg is a different species.

...........

Could be wrong. All pitchers are health risks. The Mariners dumped Randy Johnson because of that.

The basic question is reasonable - that with Strasburg you're still sweating the crash-and-burn. Would you guys decline a Strasburg-for-Ackley offer today? :- )

Cheers,

Dr D

Printer-friendly version

Categories:

Sports

Tags:

Stephen Strasburg

Replies

Mulligan?

I love Ackley but if I am the GM and have a mulligan from the '08 season? I would have forfeited those last games to get Strasburg. Injury risk? Just read you old article, very well done Doc. There are motions and alignments where body can't work as one, timing is effected and certainly more risk factors to consider. But any pitcher still have tiny tendons that can tear sneezing. This guy might be a Prior or he might be a Ryan. Time will tell. Risk worth taking. And his motion is beautiful. Different pitchers with varying bodies will all be have different risks.

Here is a thought for you. I think pitchers addicted heavy weight training have been a detriment. Exceptions yes. But overall, weighted balls and such have done little to improve a pitcher's ceiling. You don't have to be Mike Singletary Wilson to throw strikes hard. But you do have to be fast. I have my kids doing the P90X/Insanity DVD's type of workouts for pitching. School strength coach disagrees with his barrel chest will never throw it 90+. Flexibility is understated with pitching...Lincecum being an example.

Couldn't agree more with your 2nd paragraph

My own woeful case being a prime example.

Stocky chest, short arms, can throw an NFL football 55 yards or so, 40 on a line... literally cannot get a baseball up to 65 mph. Once I broke blood vessels in my fingers trying, and maxed at 64. LOL. In baseball it's about looseness and whippiness, not muscling the ball.

..................

What are your thoughts RockiesJeff on the "inverted W," on having the elbow higher than the shoulder on the backstroke? ...

Inverted W

Bloody hands! Don't grip so tight and you might crack 66!

Inverted W? Is that a drink now being served at Safeco for lack of "W"ins? Doc, I know you have read most everything on pitching. House and Reddick's Book on the Perfect Pitcher is a good example. Many of the great pitchers did things in slightly different ways. Much like Jack Nicklaus and Lee Trevino looked like opposites but obviously effective. Break down the mechanics and each were perfect through impact.

My own VERY feeble opinion is that the "W" is similar to other parts of the whole motion. It might not be "standard" ideal but, it is one factor amongs many. Past greats have been characterized by it. I think the balance and elbow/arm alignment is important. A variance within that might have a "W" for part of the motion. When/how/and how the arm is moving as the lead foot is planted and rotation takes place is key. Does it all have to be identical? That will vary by body type and strength. Your own frame would have different factors from Randy Johnson. Basics should be the same with variables to be worked within.

Trying to be concise but hope that makes some sense. Appreciate other comments on the "W."

The inverted W is just a sign

The inverted W is just a sign for a pitcher who is usually WAY late in loading his forearm at footstrike. Ideally you want it 90 degrees vertical with your fist facing up.

Inverted W guys usually load with the fist down or sideways creating a whole bunch of extra torque on the elbow and shoulder (you could check driveline mechanics or Chris O' Leary for more detail).

I see that now that all these pitchers are getting injured, the inverted W is getting more mainstream recognition. Its not bad in itself but is usually a sign of a pitcher whos really late.

Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson just didn't throw like Strasburg does. They load their arms properly and had great mechanics all around.

Taro, if you predict with

Taro, if you predict with success every +95mph pitcher to have an injury, you will mostly be right. However, this inverted W stuff has got to go. Its a very complex issue with little in the way of predictable results outside of your claims of lousy mechanics for nearly every pitcher you speak of. An 'inverted W' means nothing, having a ball pointed towards second base means everything, its the start of consistent arm action, snap on the curve, run on the fb, and isn't unknown to everyone not subscribing to Driveline Mechanics. Do guys, doing what I describe, still get hurt? Yep, and they always will. Un-natural motion, perfect mechanical pitchers only get the most out of their bodies, they DONT prevent arm injuries.

I've never claimed to predict

I've never claimed to predict every injury. Its just interesting to see that a lot people are starting to realize that there might be something to this line of thought recently. I used to catch a lot more crap for even mentioning the "inverted W".

At what point of the delivery are you referring to in regards to "pointing the ball to 2B" (for a RH)?

Hershiser: probably TJ for Strasburg

Orel Hershiser was on ESPN radio this morning, and said that based on the reports he thinks that Strasburg's forearm issues mean elbow ligament damage and that he'll probably need TJ surgery. But he also said, if that were the case, he would probably come back with the same velocity.

Dang

How unfortunate. This is bad for baseball, and bad for us too. Here's hoping that he comes all the way back to where he was when he first came up, because it sure was fun to watch those first handful of starts and be completely blown away.

Maybe we should shut down Pineda now :)

PS

Maybe I am NOT as angry now that we won that last meaningless series against the A's a couple years ago... :)

GO ACKLEY!

pitcher vs pitcher (or hitter)?

The Ackley/Strasburg argument needs to be put under the microscope of comparing "general" pitcher to hitter injury ratios. I don't know the total numbers - but I an 99% certain that top hitting prospects wash out "due to injury" at an incredibly low rate.

But, regardless of hype, talent, etc. - pitchers "as a group" wash out - (or are delayed) far more routinely due to injury.

(Each class has plenty of non-injury failures - and I have no real idea of the ratio if injuries are removed from the picture -- though if (as an example), 30% of pitchers wash out due to injury - chances are some number of those would wash out regardless of injury - so the math gets problematic quickly.

As a "general" rule, you want to select hitters over pitchers early in the draft, because pitchers get "career killing" injuries far more frequently. But, Strasburg was MUCH further ahead of the other college pitchers than Ackley was compared to the other college hitters, so injury isn't the only variable to consider.

In the end, whether it's Lineccum or Starsburg ... or Brien Taylor ... drafts don't come with guarantees. EVERY selection is a risk - (and this is why I'm strongly against the idea of paying $50 million to someone who hasn't stepped on a major league field). IMO, it's an insult to EVERY guy who has ALREADY put in several years in the majors - (after many in the minors), before THEY got financially rewarded. In the end, it is the fans, (not the owners), who pay for every failed bonus baby. When you're blowing a million here and there - not a huge effect -- when you blow $50 million on one guy, (who may never actually play in the majors), the ripple effects multipy.

I hope - (for baseball) - that Strasburg comes back from TJS and stars as he's expected to do. But, I continue to shake my head at the concept of paying the "hasn't done a thing yet" prospect 45 *TIMES* as much as you pay the league minimum rookie who just hit .280 with 20 HRs -- or pitched 130 innings with a 2.89 ERA.

My comment from Jan '09 still

My comment from Jan '09 still stands:

From a performance standpoint I love him, from an injury-prevention perspective not so much. Inverted W, arm late at footstrike, supination, bad followthrough. Most likely that he shines bright and burns out quickly.

That still makes him worth the #1 though since his talent level is so high.. I just wouldn't be that bummed if my favorite team missed out on him.

Another reason we shouldn't

Another reason we shouldn't get too bummed out about Morrow or too attached to Michael Pineda.

Good point Taro

Always one pitch away. That is baseball. Everyone had Strassburg set for the HoF but he may get as far as a Jamie Moyer. Keeps it interesting doesn't it?

Pitching

I had a discussion a few weeks ago about Strasburg about it was only a matter of time before he blows it out. The body was not meant to throw 100 mph.. Also, TJ is an every day occurrence. My son 10 played on a 10u travel team. They were 45-1 from last fall to this summer. I could talk all day about the abuse of these kids as far as pitching goes. My son did not pitch because he injured growth plate in March left handed. He throws with both arms. They had kids pitch 4 games in a weekend, a kid catching 6 innings and pitching the final 3 innings in extra innings. Same kid catching 1st game of doubleheader and pitching 3 innings in the 2nd game. It is pure insanity..Watch the LL World Series and the curves and all...

I shut my son down for fall ball. He led team in hitting when he came back from injury, but he may lose spot on this team. All I can say is oh well..

I think these kids playing year round is the problem. Remember that Strasburg pitched in the AFL. You need to have an off season to get stronger, recover and get more athletic.

It is pure insanity..

My 2 cents with the cokkies and milk.

P.S. I would have taken Dusty with 1st pick

John

The only thing I hate more . . .

than the very idea of a Little League World Series is the fact that ESPN plasters it over their entire schedule.

Old-timey novelty thing with a barbershop quartet singing in the background -- fine. Acting like 12-year-olds should be playing in anything resembling a Final Four corporate-sponsored made-for-TV extravaganza -- both dangerous and dumb.

end rant

Insane but common

I had American Legion games this summer against a team that had a 13 yr old playing up who had an 85 mph fastball and the coach said the best curve he had ever seen. My first thought was a 13 yr old doesn't need to be throwing that curve if he throws it by everyone. It is really typical to see that where the curve/slider combo starts so early when they could use the change up/knuckle curve with no rotation of the arm.

Seattle Sports Insider

You are here