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SSI Cy Young Handicap, II

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SABR Matt's picture

It's harder to pitch when you know you're only going to get 3 runs at most of support (major bonus points to Greinke and King Felix).

It's harder to pitch when you are in 1-run games a lot (extension of point 1)

It's harder to pitch if your defense sucks (this helps out Halladay and Verlander in particular)

It's harder to pitch if you pitch more innings (this isn't entirely captured by doing rate * playing time math...the longer you throw, the harder it is to maintain your production levels and it's non-linear...it's not 20% harder to throw 240 innings compared to 200...it's probably more like 50% harder)

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

Ya, the 1000 words above is not comprehensive.

That's a great point about more innings being harder to throw.  I agree with your proportion there.  The guys who go out for the 8th inning are throwing entirely different innings than other guys.

Sportswriters would call that "being a workhorse" and there's some substance in that old saw.

SABR Matt's picture

...that's why I am favoring Greinke, Halladay, or Felix...not the rest...none of the other guys had to pitch as long as the King and Halladay and Greinke...and those three all had major handicaps caused by their team context.  Felix pitching for a shutout every game because the Mariners couldn't score, ditto Greinke plus his tema defense sucked, Halladay pitching in a tough park for groundball pitchers.

MtGrizzly's picture
Submitted by MtGrizzly on

Gotta take the home park into consideration as well, yes? Sabathia has to pitch half his games in that screwed up HR friendly stadium in NY, while Felix and Verlander get to pitch half of their games in nice, big parks.

I think Grienke will get it and I have no problem with that.

Sandy - Raleigh's picture
Submitted by Sandy - Raleigh on

Greinke deserves it for the superior ERA with the far inferior defense, (and equally abysmal offensive support), compared to Felix.

Felix is likely to win it ... because voters DO focus far more on wins than on the other stats.  Yes, some ERA guys w/o best W/L records have won the thing.  But, typically that is when their ERA is a run better than the top win guys.  Greinke has a great ERA.  Felix isn't very far behind him in ERA.

While most net rats scoff and sneer at stats like ERA and Wins and Losses, the truth is, most writers, (like most fans), remain stuck in the statistical stoneage.  There may be movement in the trenches, but it is generational movement.  Twenty years from now, maybe the most deserving guy wins.  But that day ain't today.  Today, the Bill James math model is likely still strongly in play.  By catching up to CC in Wins, and trailing Greinke by not-so-much in ERA, it is VERY likely that Felix snags a not-as-close-as-one-might-think CY award.  Voters MIGHT look at offensive support -- and the dead-last in runs scored Ms don't hurt the King's case.  Almost none will factor in defense.  Even the sabrdweebs know that defensive metrics are a hash of confusion not to be trusted.  Greinke doesn't get any help, (and Felix no harm), based on their defensive support.

 

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