=== Lesson Learned #1 ===
At first, seeing the unimpressive 110-115 career ERA+'s of this group, I was a little afraid that maybe Spit-Polish Lefties didn't throw 140 ERA's, except when Perfect Storms occurred in their careers here and there.
That is not the case. Got-the-Whole-Package 90mph Lefties aren't limited to the #2 slot in the rotation. Most of these guys were well capable of pitching Opening Day -- when healthy.
So, that's good.
We conclude that Cliff Lee will be able to contend for Cy Youngs as long as his arm is fresh. He's a number one starter.
.
=== Lesson Learned #2 ===
Picture-Perfect Lefties, with 91 mph fastballs, look as smooth as light-rail trains.
It looks like they can throw forever. They cannot!
If there was one particular kind of pitcher you'd want to watch the overuse on, it would be this kind of pitcher. They have to hump up to throw 92, and although they look like they're throwing effortlessly, they are not.
Even worse, they are so smooth that even as their arms are shredding, they're still looking great.
It happened to practically every pitcher on this list. They went out and stylishly tossed their teams to victories, and their manager just kept using them and using them, and BOOOOOM! they hit the wall and were never the same again.
...........
Hey, I'm not a guy who is quick to charge overuse.
I think most of the outcry on the internet these days is way overblown. I think 250 innings is fine for Roger Clemens and I think 250 innings is fine for Felix Hernandez.
But I don't think you want to take a smooth 90-MPH, All-Star lefthander and ride him like Roger Clemens. I think that's a guy you want to be careful with. His smoothness is deceptive. He won't show you the labored delivery in the 8th inning, even though his muscles are screaming at him.
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=== Microscope on Lee's "Overuse" ===
Cliff Lee threw 223 innings in the 2009 season, and another 40 in the playoffs, and also he threw spring training. That's exactly the kind of season that ruined Smiley, and Higuera, and Candelaria.
But the good news is this:
- Lee was fully 29 before he got his hoss season
- Lee built up to the season nicely: 180-200-200 prior three years
- Lee had light usage in his early 20's, like Jamie Moyer e.g.
Don't take those positives as a guarantee of health. John Smiley was wrecked by a single hard season at age 27. But there are certainly reasons to hope that Lee might have gotten away with one in 2009.
......
If Lee is a Mariner next year, I've got him on a strict pitch count of 100, the first four months of the season. He's not getting to 200 IP before the playoffs. Skip a turn once in a while, or pull him after five in a blowout.
For SURE, if teams are going to start using Lee as though he were Roger Clemens, they are going to be playing with fire. He's not as durable as he looks.
........
A little caution could go a long way. Because if the Mariners caught Lee before he got hurt, he could be a great pitcher for years.
Let's hope,
Jeff
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