=== Taro Sez ===
When in doubt, hittracker: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2010_598&type=hitter
Average Hr so far around 403.9 feet. The power is there.
The upside is Mark Teixiera. Lots of similarities there. Similar body type, similar track record, similar eye, similar height, both sllick defenders, both in MLB at age 23.
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=== Hurt Me, Dept. ===
Thanks for the HR distances champ. Very suggestive. As NYM was quick to point out, you are certainly not talking about a Kotchman, or even a John Olerud, cap to the power here. Smoak gets his pitch and squares it up and he's going to get 400 feet. In Safeco, that's threatening the Cafe window out there, not the sixth row only.
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The Teixeira level of performance, in very broad strokes, is definitely feasible. Though Tex personally had the mammoth HR totals (IIRC) from day one, minors and all. Was a HS tater sensation in the Jeff Clement mold.
IMHO Smoak may need to apply a little more savvy to build the HR totals. Tex just leans into 'em and they're gone. But the basic point is that Smoak offers serious power potential as well. Agreed.
Not to quibble. Basic level, ya. I might go for comps with a tad less easy power than that Tex dude.
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=== AGone ===
A comp I have an inkling for, is Adrian Gonzalez. He had some learning to do, both EYE and HR, but had the natural swing and talent to build through the years.
Of course Smoak was a college player, but still, points of similarity that attract me ...
- Huge draft sensation (AGone was a #1 overall; Smoak "fell" to #11 due to signability worries)
- Slope of development arc -- gentler than fans would have liked, but with lingering momentum
- Somewhat-mechanical LH'ers, not ballet-graceful body control like Kotchman or Olerud had
- Yet with real good hands and hand-eye coordination, and pretty swings
- HIT and OBP first
- PWR second
- Fringe-ML level of performance at age 22 (adjusting one year for HS vs college)
- Dominate-AAA, battle-ML performance at age 23
- Jells as #4 hitter at age 24 (we hope)
- Big upside age 27 (we hope)
A Mariners fan might almost hope that Justin Smoak is a bit more gifted than AGone. He's certainly taller, with perhaps a better swing, and pretty much the same 75-HIT grade that I remember Gonzalez having.
It's not a perfect comp, but .... how ironic that, as hard as we-all were clamoring for Adrian Gonzalez, the M's just got 5-6 years of a kid who is as close as you'll get to a rookie version of Adrian Gonzalez.
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