Sizzlers: Michael Pineda, Mauricio Robles

Thanks to Geoff Baker for the videos. (Sorry, we're transitioning the text editors, so no formatting or links for a coupla days).

Michael Pineda, an SSI fave since his K/BB went bonkers last year, is no secret any more. BaseballHQ's minors crew has Pineda as the only highly-esteemed pitching prospect in the M's system; if I recall correctly, Baseball America also has Pineda easily the M's top-ranked pitcher.

This shouldn't deceive M's fans that scouts are Johnny-come-lately on Pineda; you can find raves going back 2+ years that sell Pineda as a future Opening Day starter in the majors. "Can hit a housefly at 1,000 yards," as one scout put it, quite a while ago.

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The only question that Pineda has, is the health, and surely that corkscrew, short-arm delivery is enough to make ya squeamish. But, as Gordon at LL thankfully reminds once a week, there aren't any of us really capable of projecting health based on what a pitcher's motion physically looks like.

Dr. D's opinion is that the short-arm delivery does require all kinds of tendon and muscle power, since it does not use centrifugality and leverage. Sure enough, Pineda had elbow pain in 2009.

That's not conclusive. Pineda is very young. All you can do is wait and see.

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The first pitch on the video, Halman fans on a Beltre sucker pitch, but you don't get to see much. The second pitch is a called strike, on which Pineda misses his target 6-8 inches inside (but still in the zone).

Every pitch after that, the catcher sits leisurely in a rocking chair and doesn't move his mitt -- including on Pineda's tight-spin, late-break slider. Well, on the last two-bounce groundout, the catcher moved his mitt a bit outside.

For six or eight pitches, Pineda looked like Greg Maddux. I'm just saying I loved the video.

If you were the Mariners, why in the world would you start Michael Pineda anywhere other than AAA? You know he's going to throw quality strikes all year long. What's the holdup about AAA? ... and watch out for the kid in ST *this* year...

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Mauricio Robles, who is G-Moneyball's adopt-a-player, got some pub at The Bakery as well, with a good 8 or 10 pitches on video.

Robles reminds of Arthur Rhodes, with similar gang-banger body language, mitt forward in front of his face, over-deliberate knee kick that hides the ball very well, and then a preying-mantis acceleration into the stroke.

The 94-97 fastball, and crackling breaking ball, didn't dissuade either...

Nice to see Robles show up and get reported at high 90's, as opposed to the 91-92 we heard last year. I didn't quite get the disconnect between the straight change that everybody talked about, and the yakker shown on the video. Maybe G-Money can straighten me out...

It's interesting that the players gave Robles credit for a plus change -- BaseballHQ calls the changeup Robles' best pitch.

Why would a lefty pitcher, 94-97 with a plus change, get so little love? HQ's explanation for baseball's lack of enthusiasm about Robles is "Lacks projection due to frame and needs to add polish to command." And they have Robles as debut'ing in (Sept?) 2012 -- two more years in the minors before even being considered...

Hm. Lacks projection due to frame. Hmmmmm.

Well, I wonder if Roy Oswalt got that...

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The hard-throwing LHP in the majors recently, packing a changeup as his best pitch, has been James Shields. Shields has walked 1+ men per game with that combo. It's an easy repertoire for a lefty to execute on a game-in, game-out basis.

Enjoy,
Dr D

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Yeah, James Shields isn't a lefty.

I do like that they gave Robles a sinker once he landed with Seattle.

I've seen Shields in Safeco and on TV for three years

Including the early-season game in which Felix got robbed on 15-20 strike calls (to 1 for Shields, IIRC). And every time a new season starts, I think of Shields as a left hand pitcher.

I wonder which other pitcher I'm crossing him with in my addled mind.

Pineda note

Note: when Pineda first hit the minors, he was listed as 6-5, 180. In fact, his profile at milb.com still lists him at that weight.

But now he is listed at 6-5, 243(!) AND both Baker and Drayer say that listing UNDERestimates how intimidating he is on the mound.

So he went from "beanpole" to "monster tight end" since he came to the States. Looks like he kept his pinpoint control during the transition, too. I'm skeptical that he actually added 60 pounds, but in the picture at milb he does look kinda skinny: http://highdesert.mavericks.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t504...

He was a beanpole. PHOTO:

He was a beanpole. PHOTO: http://www.prospectinsider.com/images/pineda/Pineda1.JPG

Well done!

Thanks Doc for the articles and the links. Loved watching Fister's movement. I love reading about the kids coming up. It doesn't take 20 of them if a few can take that step forward each year. Hard to keep throwing 90+ with short arms though!

Oh yes, "Lacks projection due to frame." Good comeback! Pitchers don't need to look like they were recruited to play OL for the Cornhuskers! Like the Baron articles, think that smaller but quicker catchers will make a comeback also?

Enjoy your day. Thanks for all of your work!

:daps:

On the short pitchers, maybe Lincecum will personally erode that. Pedro didn't change anybody's mind, but I wonder if Lincecum won't be a more compelling example, in part because he was so controversial coming up.

In the NFL, whoever wins the Super Bowl sets the tone for playing strategy... will be interested to see if Lincecum has somewhat of the same effect...

Robles and Pineda look like

Robles and Pineda look like are #1 and #2 pitching specs right now.

Pineda's delivery scares me, so I'd rank him behind Robles. Ability-wise Pineda has to be far-and-away #1 though.

I want to see Pineda miss

I want to see Pineda miss some high-minors bats before I view him as a top of the rotation guy. But as a strike throwing groundballer there is a lot of value there.

I like Robles a lot better with the encouraging reports on the changeup this spring and the realization that he started throwing a sinker post-trade. My two favorite pitches!

Totally reasonable

But it sez here there will be no issue with Pineda getting his K's against upper levels, starting with this spring. :- )

The first slider he threw on the video was vicious by any standard, and a short-arm 92 fastball on the black is a **** pitch. Get his 6+ K's at any level.

agree Taro

Ability-wise, Pineda is the best talent I have seen come up through the M's minors, short of Felix and Meche before he got hurt. Pineda is more impressive, at his age, than Langston was.

If only his elbow were going to be sound.

Robles

Ya Jon if he's got a plus changeup to go with that FB, that's an exciting arsenal...

Gotta love the angle and life on his FB...

Not bad

The M's got Robles for next to nothing. And now he's our org #2 pitching prospect? Yowza.

Recall that at the time, Z said of the trade, 'It was an opportunity to put a gun to the head of a scout'.

Give that scout a raise, and maybe next time lets try a bazooka. ; )

Of course, some of this speaks to the system.

Cortes was also considered the #2 or even #1 SP prospect when we traded for him, and he's certainly not someone that inspires confidence. Glad to have him, but in a better system he (and Robles, perhaps) are 4-5+ I would think.

Of course, that could be a giant misconception with regards to how much pitching depth teams have. Too sleepy to look into it.

HQ would agree with you Jon

They consider the M's to have the #30 pitching system - under those circumstances it is nice to trade for Robles and Cortes, who are at least as talented as any Mariner farmhand other than Pineda...