=== Fizzler:  Jason Vargas ===

I/O:  Baker praises Vargas' two solid innings, and offhandedly reports that Wakamatsu doesn't want Vargas throwing his curve ball much.  Wok wants Vargas to stick with his FB and change.

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CRUNCH:  Uh-oh.  That means that Wok thinks Vargas has a howler curve ball.

Any ballplayer will tell you that a lazy (not even hanging; just sloppy) curve ball is the easiest pitch to hit in baseball.   Once we heard a lefty hitter tell us that he loved facing lefties (at his level) because they threw him get-it-over curve balls...

Vargas had a terrible platoon differential in 2009, presumably because the curve was smashed by LH hitters.

............

SSI loves Vargas' guts, but feels that his "Iron Mike" delivery shows the ball verrrrrrrrry early, and if the curve is soft, then yep.  Combining the non-deceptive delivery with Vargas' tendency to cut under the ball at release, and, sure.  You could have a problemo.

Is Wok's observation borne out by the 2009 results, split out by pitch type?  Here, let's see what fangraphs says...

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****WOW****

*****

Slap me silly.  Check out Vargas' curve ball values.   blarrrrrgggghhhhh into the trash can

:blinks:  :wipes mouth:

And the curtain comes down....

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=== Dr's Prognosis Dept. ===

Great guy.  Won't stick in a rotation.  If the curve is useless, no way that particular FB and change will bear the pressure of a long ML career in the rotation.

Ouch.  Wish that Wok hadn't cue'd us in on that one.

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As you know, Vargas landed with a splash in 2009, running a 2+ ERA for a fair time.  SSI warned, though, at the height of Vargas' popularity, that he wasn't going to be able to hang on to the job.

We didn't realize quite the nature of the difficulty.  Siggghhhhh.  If that is the nature of the problem, that the curve is just not ML quality?, then the pitcher template doesn't work.  88 mph sidearm, and a changeup that drops down into LH's wheelhouses, nuh-uh.

Doubt me?  Name a guy like that, then.

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If they don't go get Washburn, they pretty much gotta use Snell and Fister 4 and 5.  It sez here.

Positive uses for Jason?  Well, over his career he's had some luck with LH'ers -- no doubt when he threw his change, and kept his FB down.  As a swing man, used primarily against LH, throwing a change and sinker, well, he does attack hitters.  In front of a good defense, that's a nice combo.

If you don't overexpose him, his sheer aggressiveness and LH'ness can get you some outs -- a start or three here, a 6th inning or two there.

Wish we could call it differently.  No can do.

Cheers,

Dr D