Q.  Maybe the Mariners should be giving up outs, since their team OPS+ is about 20, which skews the RE way down below the tipping point ?

A.  From my standpoint, it's just reducing your (non-existent) margin for error.   The M's can't score 4 runs with 27 outs.  How are they going to do so with 23 outs?  And by giving away all their best rallies?

Still, with Wilson or Johnson at the plate, or against a great pitcher, yeah.  Manufacture runs and hope dearly for your own pitcher to be on fire that day.

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Q.  So, why do bad teams do a bad job of moving runners over?  They're losing despite scoring more runs?  Huh.

A.  Well, first of all, we haven't systematically studied that, and proven that bad W/L's correlate with "poor" productive-out rates.  Or maybe there's such a study; link me up.

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Q.  What was that "third-order thinking" thing that justifies the productive out?

A.  First-order (incorrect) thinking = you score more runs with [1 out, man on 3B] than you score with [0 out, man on 2B].

Second-order (two-dimensional 2D) thinking = you score more runs with 0 out, man on 2B, swinging away -- so just tell your guys to swing away.

Third-order (three-dimensional 3D) thinking = you (1) theoretically score fewer runs by making productive outs, but (2) in practical terms, the teams that don't move runners over are composed of selfish idjits who are refusing to take a professional plan up to the plate.

In other words, the non-Ichiro and non-Branyan Mariners are "selfishly" swinging away and -- although this would theoretically gain them a few runs by virtue of refusing to give up easy outs -- it costs them many more runs because they're just going up there hoping for a tater pitch, and if they don't get it, making a ton of sucker outs anyway.

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Here's a bemusing example from Baker's column which does not prove that he has fewer light bulbs on than the average bear, but it is definitely a weird one to have off -- and it's one that's off for many ML players too:

Russell Branyan had a pair of doubles tonight. But even he struck out in a seventh inning situation with a runner on second and one out. That's still a situation where situational hitting comes into play. At the very least, you want Branyan getting the runner to third base if he makes a second out. That way, a wild pitch can score the run. Or an error. We saw the Twins do that tonight when the runner took third on a groundout to the right side and then scored on Wilson's error at third base.

Baker didn't invent this reasoning.  He's passing it along.

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ML personnel would tell us that the key is in the "at the very least, you want the base if he makes an out."  But no way.  You are trying to make a productive out, or you are trying to hit the ball hard somewhere.

If Branyan gets a low-away changeup and forces it to the right side, he might move that guy to 3B with 2 out.  Is that what you want from your one power hitter?  Roll over a grounder and pray for a wild pitch?  C'mon.

Man on 2B, one out, Russell Branyan needs to play his game.  Stalk his pitch and airlift it if he sees it.  Or if you want him to bunt, bunt.  Hey, this is Earl, not Dr. D.

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Part 4

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