Q. What a letdown -- Marco Scutaro at third base?
A. Here are Scooter's runs created per 27 outs the last four years, followed by Adrian Beltre's:
2009 - 5.8
2008 - 4.5
2007 - 3.8
2006 - 4.6
2005 - 4.2
LIFE - 4.5
Established performance 2007-09 -- 270/360/380
.........
Beltre:
2009 - 3.6
2008 - 5.2
2007 - 5.1
2006 - 5.2
2005 - 4.2
LIFE - 5.1
Established performance 2006-08, before crash -- 270/325/470
.........
Assume that Scutaro hits .270 with 80 walks -- that's what the GM's are assuming -- and he'll give you 80-100% of Good Beltre's offense. Except red-shifted to OBP rather than SLG.
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Q. Is that good, shifting offense from OBP to SLG?
A. I love Adrian, but he is the "mistake hitter" that defined the soft pre-2009 Mariners. Throw a soft pitcher up there and he'd yank one for you. Get into a tough ballgame against a Weaver or Lackey and what then? He'd disappear.
Scutaro will give you 4.5, 5.0 runs per 27, but they'll be tough AB's. That's a Zduriencik ballplayer.
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Q. Scutaro's going to be 34, right?
A. Yeah, signing a 2-year deal*, coming off a career arc that's going up like a golf shot.
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Q. How's the D?
A. Fangraphs' UZR has some hilariously up-and-down data on him. For instance, in 2008 he was by far the best 3B in the majors* ... in 2007 he was by far the worst. HEH! -25 runs one year, +25 runs the next.
He's a real good shortstop but a worthless hack at 2B. :- )
UZR is great; its supporters sometimes fail to keep its limitations in perspective...
............
Anyway. Marco Scutaro is a legit major-league SS. He is comfortable at 2B and 3B. That means you assume that he is a Gold Glove candidate at 3B
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Q. What's the bottom line on him at 3B?
A. Scutaro is what he is: he'll give you a 90-100 OPS+ next year, and it will be a "hard" 100. Safeco won't kill his walks on the warning track.
He'd be a real plus defender at 3B, creating this equation:
MEDIOCRE OFFENSE
+ TERRIFIC DEFENDER
-----------------
= FANGRAPHS "Twilight HOTEL MOB FRENZY"
Scutaro would give you an analog to Mike Cameron, J.J. Hardy, and all those guys. If you liked the idea of J.J. Hardy on the cheap, you gotta love Marco Scutaro.
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Q. What's Dr. D's take?
A. With Hannahan, Chavez, Jack Wilson, I think Zduriencik gets carried away with defense. Blengino explained this as, "that's the only value you can get on the fly until you have a chance to set your feet and take a real swing."
I'm not huge on [mediocre offense + terrific defense], which is what Scutaro would give you at 3B.
But I'd console myself that it definitely patches a hole, makes the team better by fitting in a 55 player where it had a 35 player .... and it proliferates the options.
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Q. The M's likely to sign him?
A. The institution of baseball is really icky at SS. Scutaro is worth three times as much, plugging a SS hole, as he is doing anything else.
I'd predict that the Sox or Dodgers overpay him. And they should.
Cheers,
Dr D

