SUMMARY TO DATE: REPLACEMENT LEVEL: 48.0 W CATCHERS: 2.4 - Adam Moore: 1.7 - Rob Johnson: 0.8 - Josh Bard / Eleizer Alfonzo: -0.1 FIRST BASEMEN: 1.7 - Ryan Garko: 1.0 - Casey Kotchman: 0.5 - Mike Sweeney: 0.2 SECOND BASEMEN: 4.2 - Chone Figgins: 4.2 - Jose Lopez: 0.3 - Jack Hannahan: -0.3 THIRD BASEMEN: 2.6 - Jose Lopez: 2.3 - Matt Tuiasosopo: 0.1 - Jack Hannahan: 0.2 We all know who the Mariners have at shortstop on opening day, and as far as projections go, Jack Wilson's is among the least exciting on the team. However, there are a couple of questions that require in depth analysis. First - how many games will Wilson actually be able to play, and second, how many times will the Mariners allow Matt Tuiasosopo to be Wilson's back-up at short and how often will they prefer to go with someone "safer" like Josh Wilson? Ironically, this last question may get answered at least in part based on the hitting of a DH candidate (Sweeney). If you take Sweeney as a fifth bench player, you probably can't afford to carry Josh Wilson, because unlike Tuiasosopo, Wilson has never played the outfield and doesn't hit anywhere near well enough to make that an option. You are forced to keep Tui as your only back-up infielder (which is the route I'd prefer anyway, but that's beside the point here). If you go with four bench players, Tui still has to be the preferred option. If they go with five and choose Josh Wilson over Mike Sweeney (unlikely, but possible)...well I'll be confused and annoyed. JACK WILSON: .605 (.235/.275/.330) Why am I projecting a continued drop in production for Wilson despite a decent half-season in Pittsburgh and despite all the reports that Wilson's production was capped in Seattle by injuries? How many of my six biggest reasons do you need? - He's 32 this season and light weight low-talent middle infielders age young. - Although his walk rate and eye ratio aren't really showing any significant trends yet, his O-SW% is. Since 2005, he's gone 19.5/23.9/26.2/26.9/32.4 in that department...that's SCARY! This implies that his at bats are getting more and more shrill...he's losing control of his game because it's getting harder and harder to stay ahead of big league pitchers. And guess what...his pitch run values show it too. Since 2006, he's gone -4.0/-1.6/-6.3/-14.6 (!) on fastball runs...they're starting to beat him at lower and lower velocities. - If injuries are to blame for these trends (and they very well could be), that's no reason to project improvement in 2010. Since 2006, Wilson has missed 178 games to injuries...and they're getting worse with time. Mostly having to do with his legs, which is the classic area where middle infielders start to die - just ask Jose Vidro. - He's moving from AAAA to the real major league. And simultaneously he's moving into a pitcher's park that is particularly tough on right handed hitters in terms of BABIP results and power numbers. Not that power is really his game, but he used to get some value from doubles and that's not going to be much of a factor this year. - He used to be a ground ball hitter - his GB/FB was routinely 1.24+ until 2007...and suddenly, he's at 1.00 since the '07 season? Stylistically, Wilson was supposed to be saved from a slow Safeco-assisted suicide by hitting lots of ground ball singles. But now he's a fly ball hitter compared to league average? Very bad news. - Another example to prove that pitchers are having and easier and easier time facing Wilson...the percent of pitches he sees in the strike zone has been tumbling since 2004...from 60% down to 53%. They're making him fish and he's obliging. I have to face facts here...Wilson is DONE as a hitter. It's not going to get better from here unless he has a lucky year with BABIP or something. In fact, I think Tuiasosopo may eventually start stealing Wilson's playing time even when Wilson is ostensibly healthy enough that he could play. You won't hear Wak saying this - he'll talk about Wilson needing more off days to keep his legs fresh for when we really need that great glove of his. But that's what I see happening. Defensively, he's coming off his best rate performances ever...he's getting smarter and better on his feet out there as he ages - as long as he's healthy, that is. That doesn't mean we should expect a defensive miracle this year at short. He'll be good, but if he's spending a lot of time fighting through hamstring tightness and back spasms, that is going to be capped somewhat. Generally, defensive gifts don't hang around past the age of 32 or 33 even for guys like Ozzie Smith (OK...he was still a great fielder at 34...but he was fading from his glory run even then). MATT TUIASOSOPO: .680 (.240/.290/.390) The fact that Tui was tried at short this spring tells me the club would REALLY like to have someone on hand who they feel is worth entrusting with some plate appearances when Wilson inevitably hits the DL. Hannahan was considered, but he picked a bad time to have some minor injury trouble and his bat is horrible, whereas Tui is hitting very well this spring and is a prospect they consider with at least some esteem. Is it worth it to suffer some growing pains both offensively and defensively from a prospect you would like to build into a useful player for your ball club in a supersub role, rather than leaning heavily on Jack Wilson's evil twin Josh? I think it is...and I think Jack Zduriencik will believe this as well. At short, Tui is probably always going to be a liability on defense, but spotted in there 60 games, that's not the end of the world. JOSH WILSON: .600 (.230/.280/.320) I get that he looks like a nice waterbug zero-bat defensive specialist...but...I don't see it in the results. In limited playing time, I admit, Wilson has never shown himself to be anything more than an average fielder. And to my eyes, at the very least, he certainly doesn't LOOK as special out there as Jack Wilson. I'm not seeing the value here. At all. Josh Wilson should only get playing time as a late inning defensive replacement for Tui or spotted in games where defense is the priority...and even then, only when Jack Wilson is actually on the DL, thus opening a spot for a utility infielder. WAR Stack (Player: PA, RC, WAR) - Ja. Wilson: 380, 35, 0.7 - Tuiasosopo: 180, 20, 0.4 - Jo. Wilson: 40, 0, -0.1