Rainiers Sizzlers & Fizzlers

SS Osvaldo Navarro chased down a Texas Leaguer parachute job by running a down-and-out to the L/CF fence and then over to the foul line. He dives at the end and catches the ball.

It exemplified everything that is wonderful about AAA baseball. And I guess it sort of explains why, even with the Ronny Cedeno situation earlier, the Mariners never gave a second thought to letting Navarro play SS in Safeco.

Well, maybe that's not fair. Earlier (like August 1) Navarro was hitting .150 or something. He went on an incredible 25-for-52 streak, or something, to get to his current .250.

......................

Matt Tuiasosopo was standing out there playing the second base position when I got seated.

Visually, it looked just like Adrian Beltre taking his D-stance at 2B. I never saw Tui touch the baseball, though we got there in the 2nd and left in the 7th. A bitter disappointment. :- )

Cindy's good with body language. Before the 6th, I told her to give me her intuition on Tui's.

He took one ball, literally bobbing his head down into the strike zone to get a better look at it, and then on the next pitch hit a missile perhaps three yards to the shortstop's left. The SS literally did not take a step towards it.

I can assure you that Cindy is not at all prone to giving the undeserved compliment. :- ) But on this one she sat up. "That ball was hit INCREDibly hard."

The liner went up the middle past the SS -- and the left fielder took the ball. Does that give you an idea?

..................

I wonder what Tui is doing playing middle infield, if they've got so many questions about his playing IF well enough to handle third. :- )

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One of D-O-V's most enduring debates was over the projectable power of Bryan Lahair.

In 2006-07, Lahair joined the Rainiers and was, defensively, arm-swinging at everything. Learning curve, or lack of power? Despite his woeful HR output in those days, we insisted that Lahair was, one of these days, quite capable of developing normal HR power for a 1B. That is, 25-32 homers per year.

Lahair is 6'5", 230 if he's a pound. My 17-year-old son is taking on Lahair's frame precisely, and I know firsthand what kind of 'he-man' physical power is latent in the tall, symmetric, shouldered frame that Lahair is blessed with. Guys with that farm-boy frame can be even much stronger than they look. .... both Lahair and John remind me of the stories that George Washington could bend a horseshoe in his hands...

Am not saying that Lahair is Adam Dunn. He ain't. But capable of hitting 30 homers in some particular MLB season out into the future? Sure, if he can square up the ball.

.................

Nowadays? Lahair has 26 homers in a huge park, hits #3 for the Rainiers, and ... they shift him as though he were Russell Branyan.

Bryan takes a dangerously loaded stance and as the pitcher winds up, he cocks his shoulder backward even more dangerously. He takes a short, piston-like turn on the ball and the pitches jump off his bat.

His 26 HR and 85 RBI, in 120 games, project to 32 HR and 115 RBI over a full ML season.

Early opinion here -- back in 2005-06 -- was that Bryan had a chance, when 27 or 28 or 29 years old, to have a couple of Geronimo Berroa seasons in the big leagues. Right now, that chance is looking like it's getting close to 50%.

Do you even want a Geronimo Berroa in 2011-12, playing 1B/DH in Safeco? I dunno, but Bryan Lahair is awfully close to ready to move up a level.

Cheers,

Dr D

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RE: Tui at 2B

I've mentioned all this elsewhere, but Tui is probably playing 2B for the same reason Mike Morse was playing 2B-- to get everyone in the lineup. That said, Morse was a complete 100% disaster at 2B, while Tui impressed me the one time I saw him down in Portland and has made a good impression with people that see him there everyday. He lost a lot of weight and got into great shape during his elbow rehab, and it's made a big difference. Gone are the Brett Wallace tree trunks he had last year, replaced with lighter but no less powerful legs.

Weight loss

The weight loss thing is interesting. I'm not going to be shocked when the story of ST 2010 is the much improved defense of Tui at 3B. I can see this one coming from a mile away.

Well, considering

that they were talking about his much improved defense during 2009 spring training, it certainly wouldn't be surprising to hear that he has improved further in by 2010.

Maybe Tui's athleticism plays

Maybe Tui's athleticism plays better at 2B. Third is a one step position, where quick hands and feet rule the day. Quick hands and feet never hurt at any position, but they are de-emphasized at 2B compared to 3B. If Tui can make the pivot I could see him playing 2B.

re: Kelly's thought

It's interesting that Jose Lopez was also assumed by many to be a big-league 3b, just because of his size, hand-eye coord, strong arm etc ... which are echo'ed by Tui...

I wonder if the Mariners possibly are giving any consideration to 2b/3b for Tuiasosopo...

FWIW, Tuiasosopo looked (a) a bit awkward, and (b) much lighter on his feet at 2b than would, say, Beltre, or even than does Lopez now...

Making the pivot

With Jack Wilson giving his best effort every time to hit the runner in the forehead with his throw, and OLB Tui deliberately landing on people sliding in, the M's could have MLB's first Rollerball DP combo :- )

My 1 look at Tui the 2B

Saw him make two plays up the middle. Surprising lateral range and a quick turn and release. Didn't get to see him range to his left, come in on a ball or make the pivot, unfortunately.

Again, I was shocked by his lateral range, which reaffirms the sentiment that he may not have the first step reactions necessary for the hot corner. He doesn't get the greatest first step, but once he gets going he can cover some ground.

I won't be surprised one bit if he's back at 3B next year, but it is an interesting development either way. If anything Tui may become a 3B/2B/1B/LF/RF utility guy with some pop, which is valuable in itself.

Thanks for the report

Wouldn't surprise either if, as a young player, Tui were more about footspeed than quickness.

It starts to sound like an interesting discussion, whether Tui's physique plays better at 2b or 3b. Similar debates occurred about Jose Lopez.

Tui's certainly has a better

Tui's certainly has a better athletic build than Lopez.

The idea of Tui at 2B is

The idea of Tui at 2B is pretty exciting.

Definitely the idea was as much offense as possible :- )

With Shelton at 3b, Lahair at 1b, Brad Nelson weighing about 275 at DH etc, Brown musta decided he wanted to score more than 2 runs...

None of us (until Kelly below) figured that Tui/2b was anything more than AAA PT-juggling, but still, it ain't like they're going to put Chris Shelton at second base for a game...

Your giving me too much

Your giving me too much credit, it's just that different athletic skills play differently in different sports. Basketball is dominated by quick leapers, not necessarily the person who can leap the highest with a running start. So being a good long jumper isn't going to make you a good shot blocker, per se.

Question: does Jose Lopez look worst at 2B than he plays because he is slow afoot (compared to the average 2B), but has the arm strength to allow him to play deeper and give himself better angles and time to the ball? That was always the claim about Cal Ripken and to a lesser extent Alex Rodriguez.

On defense ...

There's been tomes written as people wax poetic about this individual player or that one in regards to the quality of their defensive skill. And I believe most who read this board understand that today's INDIVIDUAL defensive metrics are at best ... wanting.

But, I just want to know ... given that the Ms have the #1 defense in the AL by a WIDE margin ... and Lopez has been a part of that defense all season ... two things:

1) How bad can ANY current Seattle player be defensively?

2) Exactly how much better than a .711 DER is ANY defensive move going to ultimately realize?

This is not to say there can't be improvement. Fact is, the Ms defense has had major issues with errors all season. In many ways that are among the sloppiest defensive teams in baseball. Yet, they are still #1 as a team in DER. The club is #9 in FIP, yet #1 in ERA. The EXISTING defense has been the best in the league all season. Whether it's defensive engagement ... pitching/defense on same page ... or Z has a VooDoo priestess on the payroll, the undeniable fact of the 2009 club is that whatever defensive abilities "appear" to be when eyeballing the individual players, the end result has been the BEST.

My point of view? If the Ms can have the #1 defense in the league with Lopez at second base, then quit whining about him not playing pretty enough. The prettiest looking shortstop of the last decade happens to be playing OF for Tampa. Me? I don't care if every glove in the field looks like Elaine Benes, if they're going to turn in the best performance in the league. Just like I wouldn't care if they fanned 2000 times a year if they led the league in scoring.

The true defensive liabilities were already tossed overboard, (YuBet and Wlad), and the team DER has improved about 10 points since they departed. My thinking is lefty 2Bs are NOT desireable, so the only potential AT ALL for upgrading value at 2B (over Lopez) would be adding a switch hitter, (or the rare righty-glove, lefty bat). I'm thinking it's gonna be TONS easier to leave 3B as the position to go hunting for help, (if needed). Ultimately, I don't see the teeniest, tiniest value in planning on moving Tui to second, so you can move Lopez elsewhere. There's absolutely, positively ZERO evidence that Lopez' defense (TODAY) is a detriment to the team. But, if we're going to insist on continuing to try and fix the problems from the 2008 club, why not change the subject to what to do about replacing Ibanez in left.

Lopez's Defense

Well, I think the big issue with Lopez's defense isn't what he's doing right now, but what he figures to do next year and beyond. Of course, none of us have a crystal ball, but based on Lopez's build it isn't unreasonable to expect him to decline defensively as he continues to mature physically. Many expected this decline this season, especially after it was reported that he purposely got bigger in preperation for becoming a first baseman, but he's managed to play the same sometimes-frustrating-but-adaquate defense that he's shown the last couple of years. But how many years can he keep it up?

All the talk about moving Lopez has little to do with what he is doing now, but what everyone is expecting him to do later. And with that, I say don't move him (defensively) until you have to, because his bat is not a third baseman's bat right now. Only move him to 3B for 2010 if you have a 2B that is an improvement offensively AND defensively.

Butterfly Orca?

Okay, the concern is that Lopez is going to spin a caccoon during the off-season and return as Orca? THAT is why there's so much discussion of moving him?

Nah. Not buying it for an instant. Just to update the fact sheet on Lopez:

He's only 25 freakin' years old at this point. In my entire baseball life I have *NEVER* heard it argued that a 26-year-old was entering the decline phase of ANY part of his game. Secondly, they banned steroids, and they test for them now. Third, if one actually inspects defensive records and hunts for defensive decline, the common drop-zone is about age 32, (which also happens to coincide with the common drop-zone for offensive decline). Where's the panic button on Jack Wilson?

Basically, there isn't the tiniest scrap of actual DATA that supports the notion that Lopez is going to fall off a defensive cliff for AT LEAST the next 5 seasons. In point of fact, the only actual statistical problem defensively for Lopez is his errors, yet it's the one least often mentioned, because errors have never been viewed as Lopez' big defensive headache PREVIOUSLY.

There's a favorite phrase that Doc uses occasionally ... "How would I know that I'm wrong?" Well, here's a simple tell for whether a projection argument for a given player is reasonable, or whether it is based on some sort of (subconcious) bias against said player. This could be applied to any player for any aspect of their game. The saw is this: "How many others players like this have I used this same argument about?" (one could tack on, " ... and been correct ...", if one wished).

How many 25-year-old 2Bs have been argued were competent defensively TODAY, but it was clear that they needed to be moved to a less demanding defensive position ASAP to avoid their impending defensive doom? Basically, I want to know who these defensive imploding MI comps are, because I've missed them.

Heck, Lopez played almost his entire career paired with the laziest SS in baseball. His 2009 season has been marked with having to team up with a host of new faces at short all season. UZR had him with a RangeRuns of -5.6 in 2008, but a +2.5 in 2009. Only reason he's running a negative UZR this season is because of his negative ErrorRuns saved for the season, (which could easily be explained by the revolving door of shortstops on the season). And yes, I've heard it argued on many occasions that lineup changes around a player can have an impact on that player's defensive results.

Me? The only 25-year-olds I can recall who were moved to "easier" defensive positions all started off as catchers, and the push was to get their bat in the lineup every day, OR they were simply unequivacally incompetent at their position, (see Upton, B.J.).

I agree with every word of that ...

The one thing that has us bizarrely thinking in terms of a defensive dropoff by age 25-26?

Would be a certain ex-Mariner playing in KC, I think... :- ) And your post underlines the weirdness of that, 'cause I can't think of another SS at any time who was excellent at 22 and immobile at 25...

I wasn't talking about his

I wasn't talking about his defense declining the way an old player would. YOUNG players have to move off their positions all the time, sometimes more than once. Jose Lopez was a shortstop, got too big, and was moved to 2B. If he keeps getting bigger, he may have to be moved elsewhere. I'm not saying he's going to get worse in terms of skills, but if he gets bigger his range could take a dive from average to below average. That is all I'm saying.

Young players are moved because they outgrow, not because they decline. The concern is that Lopez is outgrowing 2B. If he wants to stick there, he has to make a concentrated effort to keep the weight off, and while his work ethic is reportedly improving, he doesn't seem like a guy that's going to show up to camp 20 pounds lighter one day because he certainly sees himself as a home run hitter, and if anything he *wants* to get bigger.

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