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Anonymous's picture
Submitted by Anonymous on

Thus far, my impression is that the M's (excellent) saber-crew simply looks for guys with good career minors K/BB numbers and throws the spaghetti against the wall.

I would encourage them to look, instead, for some specific factor that sets a given pitcher apart from the masses of Garret Olsons that are always storming the ML beaches from AAA.

I start with the assumption that Z and his crew know how long the odds are on guys like this. But they are essentially free - pickups like Petit or trade throw-ins like Vargas. You want to find a Moyer/Byrd pitcher, you are going to have to churn and burn through a lot of arms. Given what we've seen from Z on the roster management, I don't fear that he will stick with a guy like this too long. He'll churn and burn them through the AAA rotation, the long relief role and the major league roster as need arises. If the need doesn't arise or they don't develop, I expect he will cut these guys faster than a Beni-Hana chef cuts the tail off a giant prawn. 

It's not like Moyer did anything to distinguish himself at 25.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

I keep thinking about them trading the talented Aaron Heilman -- a key part of the Putz return -- for Garret Olson and me spewing my soda all over my monitor.  Olson to me, from roto days, is a guy who should be a pretty obvious shun.  That moves me from "assuming they know he's a 90% chance to fail" to "concluding that they think such a pitcher has a good chance."

Am not busting their chops - simply offering observations on up or down events as IMHO warranted.

.............

On the other hand, in 2009 I thought they showed a real talent for spotting the more promising pitchers (Vargas, Fister) and for flushing the lost causes relatively quickly -- in 4-5 starts rather than in 15.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

So if Franklin is the template, then is Petit our next closer? 

............

LOL - good catch Watcher -

Petit would be just about nature's first 87 mph closer :- ) ...

Ryan Franklin has nice giddyap on his fastball and that is one thing that separates him from the AAAA list:  when he has to go to the FB, it's got that extra couple of feet on it, that at least make the batters stay quick rather than gathering themselves for the swing...

SABR Matt's picture

I would just like to say that Sandy must be having a bad week or something, because he's suddenly turned into me with respect to tone.  SHame on you, Sandy.  Hey...if the world can fall down on me every time I say something sarcastic...it should fall down on him too.

As for the content of his comments on the NL talent...league quality impacts elite talent a lot LESS than it does the marginal talent.  Great players will be nearly-equally-great in any environment because there is a limit of diminishing returns.  There's only so much head-bashing you can do as the league gets thinner.  Putz was injured BTW, but thanks for talking down to me like a 2-year-old and using a corrupt example.  Classy of you.

I have never argued that there weren't great players in the NL.  My claim is that for average players like BRONSON ARROYO (not eht huge spike in performance he got in the NL before his arm imploded further) and RYAN FRANKLIN...the weaker NL makes it significantly easier to go from mediocre to significantly above average performance.  Why?  Because if you shift the skewed-right distribution of talent such that the mean skill is a hair further left, it won't make much difference at the far right tail...but the middle players are going to go from being bunched with a bunch of other players like them to being off to the right of the main cluster and their performance will push further from the center than you'd expect with a linear shift.  You have to picture the shape of a skewed-right weibull-style curve.

When you calm down and stop screeching at me, I'll continue this conversation.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

So if he slid in with his cleats high, then absolutely.  The same rules apply to everyone.

Looking at it here Sandy, I agree with Matt.  NL-AL delta is justifiably a sore point with you, but you're aware too that when you use sarcasm, it's an invitation for the next poster in to be 20% more acerbic, and then then next guy 20% more acerbic, and so on...

Politeness makes for a more enjoyable enviroment, more frictionless idea exchange, and it's everybody's responsibility.

SABR Matt's picture

...all show somethig similar.  I *rejected what my own F/S Matrix was telling me about the NL/AL delta two years ago because it seemed too extreme...all the NL teams were rating a full run worse than all the AL teams...I thought that was too much.  But then Hardball Times' study suggests the NL really is a full run worse than the AL in H2H match-ups...and in fact they're playing Pythag .380 or so against the AL...that's a HUUUUUGE DEAL.  I don't think everyone has gotten their heads all the way around just how bad the NL is these days overall.  It still has stars that would star in the AL...but the average NL player is a BIG step worse than the average AL player and it makes a very big difference for guys who can hold their own in the AL.  We've seen DOZENS of examples of this.  We even get examples of players who hold their own in the AL...go to the NL...world-beat for a while...then come back to the AL and are barely holding their own again!  Sooner or later, we're going to need to realize how big an adjustment we have to make when we're buying average NL players.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

If you played the #8 AL team off against he #8 NL team, what the result, 96 wins for the AL team or something?

This point is well taken also.  We don't want to underestimate the gap.  The serious studies are showing wide differences.

Just the same, I'm sure you'd agree that there's such a thing as an NL player you don't worry about in the transition -- Branyan, Dunn, to name a couple.  I'm not sure what makes a player a clean NL-AL crossover but I know that they're out there.

SABR Matt's picture

Highly-skilled players who jump to the harder league will often not see their numbers drop at all...as is the case when players go from AAA to the big leagues.  You see a player's established level of performance in the minors and he gets up to the big leagues and hits about the same once the adjustment period is done...more often than you'd expect.  As I said...the bigger the dog...the less difference it makes to him how small the other dogs are...he's going to kill them in a fight either way.

Also, players who rely on very basic skills (high CT%, speed, good defense, etc) and not on things that require perfect pitch recognition (power hitting, for example) are more likely to transition without much of a dent.

My point is that Ryan Franklin is *EXACLY* the type of player I'd expect to do way better against the NL.  Mediocre AL talent relying on guile and pitch mix...he's the kind of pitcher who would run a 2 ERA and a 7 K/BB in AAA and a 2.5 K/BB and a 5 ERA in the AL.  It makes sense that his results should be much improved in the NL.  He's the kind of player that benefits most from weaker competition.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

Logically you look at Ryan Franklin and he's *just* the type of pitcher you'd think, maybe this guy could be okay in the NL.

Right now that's not what I believe to be the case about him specifically - not exactly sure why -

His pitches are fairly sharp for a pitcher of his type (five pitches mixed randomly).  His fastball has a couple extra feet on it; his overhand curve has pretty good bite.

I dunno.

Sandy's picture
Submitted by Sandy on

I understand the AL has been beating the NL in interleague play.  I don't dispute this.

What I dislike is the use of the potential difference in total league talent as explaining INDIVIDUAL performance.

For 2009, run differential - AL vs. NL was 1206-1061.  That's a 145 run edge for the AL.  That's in 250 games.  How one can compute a 1-run per game edge for the AL, when in NO interleague year -- NOT ONE -- has the AL held a 1-run per game edge ... well, that's beyond me.  Looks like a 0.58 run oer game difference to me.

In truth, I think it perfectly logical to argue that the "aggregate" talent of the NL is diluted by two complete AAA teams.  This is supported by the fact they have two extra teams - and the fact the two leagues spend almost identical dollars on talent ... meaning that basically two NL teams aren't paying their players anything. 

Now, a starting pitcher changing league will have the DH/Pitcher issue.  THAT is a legit rules-based, (not talent-based) difference.  And it does change things.  And time says that the DH is worth about 1/3 of a run a game because of it.  And borderline (AAAA) SPs, who get that little pitcher respite ... yeah, I can see that absolutely as a league-based concern.  HoRam is a perfect example of a player to avoid, (and one I was first at saying was a bad, bad, bad pickup by Seattle before he threw pitch one for them).

But closers specifically do NOT face pitchers.  They face pinch-hitters.  So, closers, as a group, are probably the least susceptible to league drift.

But, what annoys me most here is that Duncan is known as a pitcher miracle worker.  He's done miraculous things with BOTH AL and NL imports.  You look at the league totals, and Franklin ran a 1.4/2.6/4.7 line in the AL over 811 innings.  Fantastic control, but too many gophers.  In the NL, his aggregate is ... 1.0/3.0/5.5 -- he improved both his HR and K-rate, (while not facing pitchers).  BUT, his walks rose.  In short, he did EXACTLY what Felix did over the last couple of years ... he learned how to pitch SMARTER. 

Of course, 2009 was a career year.  His 6.5 K-rate is obvious way high - and the 0.3 HR rate is absolutely impossible to comprehend.  Duncan has done this with dozens of pitchers -- pure NL guys -- and I have to believe Matt knows this.  Moreoever, Franklin was a starter in the AL, and was moved to the pen in the NL.  MANY fringe SPs have had shown marked improvement moving from rotation to pen, where their weaknesses are harder to exploit.  Yet, Matt chooses to focus on the LEAGUE differential.

Duncan?  SP to Closer?  League?  Matt chooses to point to league differential as the explanation for Franklin. 

Yes, I take offense at this.  Partially, because I understand the reality.  But, I'm an NL fan.  I view the DH as the height of laziness and a strategic detriment to the game.  But, I *NEVER* have started a discussion by denegrating the AL.  But, if someone is going to take random potshots at the NL, I'm not going to sit by idly.  I'm going to reply ... and no, it won't be with hugs and kisses.  I see two possible outcomes.  One, I get myself banned ... or, people stop taking potshots at the NL, if for no other reason than they get tired of my counter-attacks.

 

SABR Matt's picture

...I was just speaking in rough numbers...the F/S Matrix saw a spread of performances...the best NL teams were +0.2 runs to the average AL team...the worst were pretty far below that.  The average is actually about -0.4 runs per game for the average NL vs. the average AL squad if you total things up from 2001 to 2007...the period for which I have F/S Matrix data and the NL was recognized to be becoming increasingly weak relative to the AL.

The Hardball Times Pythag Analysis is pretty damning though.  And if you recognize that the NL is the inferior league...and by quite a lot...then you ***********HAVE TO*********** be aware of that when talking about players who switch leagues.  Grouse about it if you must, but it's a statistical reality we face...we HAVE TO account for league quality.  HAVE TO...or we're going to keep buying crappy players who look OK in the NL.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

Hadn't thought of this way of seeing it.

Matt, you want to calculate the impact of diluting a league's player pool by mixing in 15% RLP's?  Would that be pretty close?

....................

Honestly believe that both sides are mostly right here.  Nobody in the world doubts Roy Oswalt's or Ryan Braun's ability to impact the AL.

Sandy's model maintains that the #75 NL player is a quality player, right along the lines of the #75AL player, but that there are a good 50 additional fringe players you have to consider.

Yet, as we all know, if you compare the two leagues in a vacuum, the "average" player in each league is going to come out looking pretty different. 

This stratification that Sandy believes in, that mirrors my own belief about Japanese baseball -- that the top 50% or so of Japan's players are going to give MLB'ers a very rough ride, but that the bottom half might not measure up.

Sandy's picture
Submitted by Sandy on

What's interesting about the 14/16 team paradigm is this.  What is the ratio of 14-16 expressed as W/L record?

  • 16-14 = .533
  • 14-16 = .467

The 2009 results 137-114 = .545 == total aggregate ('97-'09) = .521

Of course, it's only the last 5 years that the AL really took over in interleague results.  From '97 - '04, the leagues swapped out annual interleague winner.  I suspect that it was around '03 to '04 that the payroll situation changed, but I'd have to go back and check, (and don't have time at the moment).  But, 16 teams SHOULD spend two teams worth more payroll than 14 ... and that definitely hasn't been the case the last couple of years.

I object to painting the entire NL as a "minor league", when it is likely (based on number of players AND payroll), that the top 300 or so players in both leagues are likely equal. 

What would the impact be of adding one extra replacement level player to every starting lineup in the AL?  Just one extra replacement level guy, instead of the current MLBer?  What, a quarter run?  Add 2?  How much difference would that make?  A half run, perhaps?  Spread over 16 teams, that's 32 players.  I'm suggesting the NL has 50 extra minor leaguers playing major league, (compared to the AL). 

50 extra minor leaguers in a league with 400 players.  If 50 extra replacement level players turns the entire NL into a minor league, what does it mean about the minors that at any given moment there are probably 50 major leaguers playing there, (injury rehab - or blocked at a position)?  Does having those 50 extra major leaguers turn the entire minors into a major league? 

It might be worth it to try and identify the specific 50 RLPs in the NL that the AL should avoid.  But, the typical rhetoric these days is to take the opposite view ... intimating that the NL only has 50 major league players, and the other 350 are just minor leaguers.  I'd suspect that the majority of the fringe players to be avoided would be #5 starters ... advantaged by the pitcher outs, (the HoRams of the world).  And if Franklin were a starter, I'd definitely take that pitch.  But, as a reliever, with the NL wunderkind pitching coach? 

The problem with refering to the NL as a minor league is that it changes perspective, and makes it EASY to attribute *every* NL to AL failure as a result of competitive bias and *every* AL to NL success similarly.  This is not only lazy, it is dangerous.  It halts the cognitive process, and makes it easy to stop looking at other data. 

Let's say I accept that every #5 SP in the NL is inferior to every #5 SP in the AL.  That's 16 people.  But how often does say, Jack Wilson face a #5 SP?  Every 5th day.  So, maybe he's advantaged in 15% of his ABs, facing inferior competition, (allowing that #5 SPs don't include ABs against relievers).  How much does that change HIS total hitting profile?  Is he batting .500 against the fringe player?  If he's facing the same talent as the AL guys in 85% of ABs, what's the league-to-league adjustment for projecting his performance?

What if most of the RLPs are hitters instead of pitchers, though?  There are more hitters than pitchers on MLB rosters.  Maybe only 8 NL SPs are below AL standards.  If that's the case, then how do you go find the RLP hitters?

 

SABR Matt's picture

If you take out the Yankees, the leagues do spend the expected 16 vs. 13 ratio (approximately)...and if you take the Yankee record out of interleague play, the AL still has a pretty solid edge.  So I don't think it's the money being spent that's causing the disparity...though it may be a contributing factor.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

And I share the annoyance at the implications it makes towards the Chris Carpenters or even Joel Pineiros of the league... the average NL ballplayer is a major leaguer through-and-through ... hey, for that matter, a great many NPB players are major leaguers...

That said, Matt wouldn't dispute that quality NL ballplayers are major league I'm sure... in Jamesian style he is using a "splash" term to make a point that has a lot of validity... the AL-NL gap is wider than most think...

.............

Love the 14/16 and 16/14 won-loss ratio you used to end-around Pythag ... always fun to see a completely new (and Zen-like) formula, however close it is or isn't to a bulls-eye :- )

Taro's picture
Submitted by Taro on

I'd argue that the AL likely has more quantity in quality players than the NL, but that the difference is small.

The real difference is that that players in the NL can beat up on the bottom tier players which inflates their stats compared to equal players from the AL. Certain NL players won't decline in the NL to AL shift. Most of them will, but to different degrees.

SABR Matt's picture

I think the NL has a fatter left tail than the AL, the median is shifted slightly left (the average NL player is slightly worse than the average AL player) and the right tails end up in the same place (both leagues have elite players that will be elite in all environments).  The borderline guys in the AL pump their stats routinely...I see it ALL THE TIME...when they go to the NL.  It's not something that should be overlooked.

Anonymous's picture
Submitted by Anonymous on

on the fire, roster construction is radically different for an AL team than it is for an NL team.  In the NL, your lineup is necessarily more calcified because you don't have that DH slot to rotate people through.  So the aging sluggers who really have no business in the field, but can still launch 450' moonshots, have a tough time findind work often times.  In the AL, you buy a guy like Barry Bonds and pencil him in as a 50/50 DH/fielder, someone who can play the field to spell other players, but you mostly consider a DH.

 

This will quite naturally result in more money going to the AL team's rosters, since Vladimir Guerrero's back condition isn't a deal-breaker if you don't already have the DH slot filled.  If he can't play the field in years three, four and five of his contract, it's not the end of the world.  But if you're the Mets and you are dying for a corner outfielder, you can't really consider Guerrero on a long-term contract to fill that need.  You have to go for Jason Bay or something.

 

 

Anyways, that's always been my impression of AL vs. NL roster construction.  In a vacuum, with equal funding, the DH rule will make the AL teams more flexible, and therefore more competitive/effective, over a long period of time, which results in a better product, (generally) larger revenues, and increased payrolls.  It's unavoidable, I think.

OBP_Train's picture

Looking carefully year by year tells you the story of Yusmerio Petit. Early on he was highly regarded since he just crushed lower competion. Low hr/9 and all. However as soon he hit AA and AAA he was getting 2-3 hr per game.

Wait but hr/9 is not the entire story! In 2008 in AAA yusmerio posted a obscence 10.2 /1.2 k/BB ratio however his H/9 was 9.6. So hitter's weren't walking because they were hitting singles off Yusmerio Petit. Worse yet the high hr/9 meant not all of those hits were single but hr's.

So all that mean's is yeah Yusmerio throws for strikes and I don't think the walks will be the issue at all whatsoever. The issue is Yusmerio becoming more hittable.

But rest assured their is some hope. Look at Yusmerio age he's only 24 and his career minor league h/9 numbers are still 8.2/9 despite have a couple years of obscene hittability. This hints that he could have been rushed through the farm system. Something I could also backup with another pitcher in arizona's system Bryan Augenstein(who got called up from AA to majors this year). Granted Augenstein doesn't have the flyball issues that Petit has however maybe get Yusmerio throwing a more dominating offspeed pitch such as the knuckball. I mean Yusmeiro is accurate with the strikezone.....

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