Lookout Landing with their usual rock-solid job of thinking through the question of Johjima vs Johnson. This of course goes to the issue of M's pitching in 2010.
Johjima-san, who is one of my favorite players, consistently ran CERA's 1.00 to 2.00 runs worse than other Mariners catchers during his career here. I believe that this was 80% - 90% the fault of everybody except Johjima, and yes, I know exactly how weird it is to say that.
Should M's fans expect runs-off-the-scoreboard, for the enemy, because Johjima left? If not -- is it reasonable for M's fans to hope for fewer runs allowed?
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=== I-5 Mile Markers ===
Exit numbers being rough and from memory. :- )
2006 to May 2009 -- all of the scouts rave about Johnson's natural catching and his technical progress, except for blocked pitches.
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2008 - Dr. D observes Johnson at Cheney and is underwhelmed. Johnson frequently has trouble even catching the baseball, it seems to him. Aside from the three balls a game that bounce off the backstop about 10 feet :- ) behind Johnson, about twice that many are dropped and roll a couple of feet away.
Well, y'know.
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Early 2009 - Johnson comes up and, from the sabermetrically-oriented in Seattle, draws skepticism.
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May 5, 2009 - Dr. D opines that Rob Johnson will probably have a Dan Wilson career in the major leagues, albeit with less playing time.
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May 1 -June 15, 2009 - most of cyber-Seattle wonders how Wakamatsu can justify playing Rob Johnson, whose early batting lines are very weak and whose WAR's look bad in his first couple of months as a major leaguer.
July 2009 - Johnson goes on a hitting tear in which he BB's more than he K's and shows excellent gap power. Sandy points this out and protests against Johnson's PT cease.
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August 6, 2009 - Having watched Johnson for a while, Dr. D offers an argument that it's not only possible that the scouts are right about Johnson's defense being plus, but perhaps (60-40) probable that the scouts are right.
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Sept-Oct 2009 - Skepticism continues in cyber-Seattle about Johnson's defense.
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Oct. 19, 2009 - Dr. D states that he would be just fine with an Adam Moore, Rob Johnson situation at catcher in 2010 -- more than fine, in fact, since money could then be deployed elsewhere.
He was trolling for a bit of shock and resistance, but received little overt criticism for the piece. :- )
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Late Oct. 2009 - The Mariners themselves sent signals that they were perfectly fine with Moore and Johnson at catcher in 2010.
No real objection has been raised to this paradigm, since, that I have seen.
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Nov. 8, 2009 - Lookout Landing pushes the soccer ball upfield, furthering discussion of Johnson's defense with a well-thought-out analysis of Johnson's overall value. LL's syllogism goes as follows:
1. Johnson doesn't have much value, unless his CERA is a real skill.
2. It's highly doubtful that his CERA is a real skill.
3. It's highly doubtful that Johnson has much value.
The logic is sound, obviously; only the premises, not the validity, are open to investigation.
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