POTD Matt Holliday

He's a pinball wizard

There has to be a twist

A pinball wizard's got

Such a suuuuuuupple wri-i-ist

=== The Question is Moot Dept. ===

Take out a #2 pencil kiddies. It's multiple choice, pass-fail. We haven't POTD'ed Matt Holliday because:

1. The M's aren't playas for marquee FA's

2. Matt Holliday can't hit in the AL

3. Scott Boras is his agent

4. Don Wakamatsu won't have anything to do with former A's

5. We don't have the mojo to compete with the Red Sox

6. All of the above

7. None of the above

...............

The correct answer, of course, is 7., None of the above. Scott Boras has the #1 free agent this winter, and he is straight-facedly and grimly arguing that Holliday = Teixeria * 0.9.

So the question is moot. Zduriencik will go after bigtime players, obviously, but at a 10% discount. Not at a 25% second sticker.

Actually, Holliday IS a pretty reasonable comp for Teixeria, but Teixeria himself would have a rough ride getting that contract this winter, from anybody except the Yankees. And obviously the M's don't represent themselves as having this kind of purse.

=== AL Transition Dept. ===

We heard some questions as to whether Holliday will hit in the AL. Perhaps Jason Bay is preferable to Holliday because Bay has proven it in the AL?

Um, no. Holliday is much preferable to Bay. Matt Holliday is a legit .400 OBP cleanup hitter, and as such slots in as a true Edgar-type offensive machine.

Holliday had the ho-hum four months in Oakland, but in this specific case, that's a question of learning the pitchers. Not a question of a great hitter not being able to deal with Ryan Rowland-Smith. :- )

=== Pinball Wizards Dept. ===

The surprising skepticism on Holliday, despite the fact that Holliday has a totally dynamic swing -- he looks tremendous at the plate --, got me to thinking about hitters' wrists...

What scouts mean, when they say that a batter has good wrists ... they mean that his wrists hinge during the swing, and the wrists hinge powerfully.

The alternative is a stiff, locked forearm-and-wrist. With some guys, like Adrian Beltre, the entire arm-chest triangle is as locked as a PGA golfer stepping up to a 3-footer. Richie Sexson was this way.

A guy might generate stupendous bat speed at the halfwaypoint in his swing arc with this "golfer's triangle." The bat might be travelling 70 mph once a Beltre or Sexson gets the bat moving.

But it is the wrist hinge that gives the hitter quickness, that allows him to adjust and adapt to different pitch depths.

=== Best Holiday Available?, Dept. ===

Pull up some Holliday video and you'll see he has a very dynamic swing. In fact, I don't know of a swing that compares better to Alex Rodriguez' -- compact to the ball, terrific acceleration, all parts hinging and "springy," chin down. Comes from high, hits "down" on the ball to get on top of it, and yet with loft ... huge followthrough.

Holliday has quickness and to spare. Adaptation is not an issue for him; neither is hitting good pitchers an issue for him. ... a new league of pitchers might be. But Holliday started hitting in what, his 2nd month in the AL.

..............

Holliday is a terrific player, considerably better than Jason Bay or anybody else on the market, but he isn't neighbors with Lofa Tatupu. I don't think he's real interested in cutting the M's a deal.

Cheers,

Dr D

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I share you optimism on Holliday's bat.

...but he just is not worth blowing 2/3 of our cap room. It's going to take a 6X110 kind of contract to get Holliday...the Red Sox will buy that and the Mariners will be left competing with themselves for Bay.

Speaking of Wrists

Hank Aaron was known as the ultimate wrist hitter. Didn't hurt HIM any.

Hanik Aaron was a collosal giant.

I hardly think Holliday matches Aaron in terms of physical capbilities...but that is a fair point.

Ya, I think Holliday adjusted

Ya, I think Holliday adjusted pretty quickly.

I don't want to sign him, but he'd make a lot more sense then Jason Bay, even if Bay gave us a discount.

If we're looking for a LF so badly, lets call up the Rockies about Seth Smith.

Sheesh.

You have a serious issue with obsession with certain players, Taro...LOL

:-) I'm just saying.. You can

:-)

I'm just saying.. You can pay Mark Lowe for your 3.5 WAR LF or you could pay $65mil over 5 years if you want. I'd rather pay Mark Lowe.

I think it would cost more than Lowe.

...and I think if you have the money to spend...there's no reason not to spend it.

And I don't think Seth Smith is as sure a thing as you do...I like im as a srospect, but let's not treat his potential 3 WAR with the same certainty that Bay's definite 3+ WAR gets.

I think Seth Smith is a very

I think Seth Smith is a very safe bet for 3+ WAR in Safeco as full-time player. Heck, he was nearly already a 3 WAR player in '09 despite only 387 PAs. I might do a thread about it later this month..

In fact I'd be willing to bet that Smith's next five years (as a regular) will outproduce Bay's next five.

Coors.

It's made a lot of players look like herculean giants even after park adjustment...only to have them suck when they left it.

Smith's Home/Away split (in the NL, mind you, so you can knock some more off the road numbers when he comes to the AL):

Home: .998 OPS / .337 BABIP

Road: .770 OPS / .315 BABIP

Also...so far he's been protected from lefties, racking up only 81 PA against them and OPSing .745, compared to .898 against the righties.

Well, there are reasons I

Well, there are reasons I don't think the Coors effect is going to be as pronounced for Smith. It may or may not shave 15-25 OPS points off, but its not going to be significant.

His HRs average 410 feet (Branyan-esque power). He has level swing and a high BB%, a solid CT rate. Hes lefty with above-average batspeed. He crushes power pitching. His swing is just the perfect fit for Safeco and I think hes a very good bet to traslate to the AL.

Smith doesn't even need to OPS 880 to be a 3 WAR full-time player. With above-average D, and a high OBP, he'll only need to get over that 800 OPS hump. If he goes into the mid-to-upper 800s, he an Ichiro/Guti esque player.

I thought Smith was a DH type

I thought the whole reason Smith didn't yet have a FT gig in Colorado was that they had better fielding options for their outfield and Smith was more of a DH type.

I think you might be mixing

I think you might be mixing him up with Hawpe..

No...

...Hawpe HAS a starting job. :)

Perhaps Smith isn't as bad in the field as I thought, but I still don't see what the excitement over Smith is all about...at best, he's an average to slightly above average defensive corner outfielder, and a good match for Safeco stylistically at the plate...one you can bet will lose power leaving Coors field as demostrated by his huge Home/Road split.

Like I said I don't think

Like I said I don't think he'll lose much (or any) offense due to his skillset (we've seen that Home/Road splits can be really overrated with guys like Holliday and Soriano), but I've taken a closer at his D and I'm not sure if he deserves the +5 run ratings RF and UZR are giving him. He looks more like a young Ibanez, than a Gabe Gross defensivley.

Maybe I'm giving him a hard time, but he looks more averagish to me after looking at the vid. In Safeco I could see him losing 5 runs just due to the space of LF. I'd set his range at about 0 to -5 runs in the OF in Safeco and about averagish in a neutral park, although I could be wrong and the metrics could be right. Not a poor OF, but he doesn't look like a plus glove either.

I really like the idea of targetting him, but long-term maybe you keep Saunders and Smith can play every position in the OF so he can be your regular #4 OF and DH. On days when Smith is in the OF, you can give one of your regulars a rest day at DH.

I do really like his chances at 3+WAR even without the +5 runs in LF. Hes a lefty OF with very good plate skills combining above-average batspeed and massive power. He crushes power pitching which bodes well for his development curve as well as trasitioning to the AL.

I'm betting...

...I'm betting he costs more than you seem to think he will to acquire and I'm also betting he loses 50 points of SLG and 15 points of BABIP the instant he leaves Coors (that's about -.080-0.100 OPS points).

We shall see, perhaps.

I really doubt he loses much

I really doubt he loses much of anything out of Coors. Hes going to walk at a 12% clip at any park, he'll make solid contact at any park, he'll hit power pitching at any park, and his power would translate to any park. If he were an agressive FB hitter with 380-90 feets ish average power I'd be worried ya, but he walks, makes contact, hits the ball hard, and his HRs go a mile. How is he going to lose 100 OPS points? He doesn't even have enough ABs for the Home/Road splits to be really meaningful. I remember looking at them mid-season and he had BETTER Road splits.

Smith's last 6 HRs of the season were ALL in Coor's and its the reason Smith splits reversed late in the season. Of course his last HRs went 430 feet, 442 feet, 445 feet, 413 feet, 428 feet, and 398 feet respectively. Thats going out of ANY park. This is more evidence of a guy who just 'happened' to get hot at home in a short sample, as opposed to a guy who really benefits from park effects.

In 2009 Smith's average HR went 413.7 feet. In 2008, his 4 HRs averaged 411 feet. 2 of his career HRs are against Tim Lincecum. That isn't the Coor's effect, thats just a guy with massive power. To top it off all of his power is basically on the pull-side, and hes a back-spin hitter (though not a GB type), and would be a great match for Safeco.

I think Mark Lowe is a fair price. Lowe apparently is a pretty valuable trade commodity right now and RP is the biggest need for Col. They might possibly be interested in Lopez instead, but Mark Lowe apparently has more trade value right now. Smith is blocked in Colorado's OF by their two top prospects and Hawpe. Hes essentially their #10 position player.

I mean, you're talking about

I mean, you're talking about a guy who doesn't even have a full season's worth of PAs yet and is already mashing. Smith who was drafted in the 2nd round for his TOOLS (was the backup to Payton Manning as a QB in college with an unimpressive college baseball career), and has excellent plate skills with the ability to play an averagish LF. The guy has untapped upside at the plate, and Col is treating him like 4th OF/pinch hitter.

He also isn't a slug like Nick Johnson and will actually score runs with his career .370+ OBP. Prorate his career production to what an average #3 hitter would get (somewhere around 650 PAs) and you get 98 Runs and 88 RBI.

He'd be the perfect #3 hitter behind Ichiro and Figgins. With his ability to play averagish D in a corner, he kills the need for a 4th outfielder and gives you a cheap long term OF/DH for the next 4-5 years. You can even develop Saunders as a regular in LF, if Saunders pans out in the next 2-3 years he stays, if not Smith can take over as your LF.

Your HR distance calcs are intuitively wrong.

Coors field adds about 7% to the average HR distance...so say the physics experts who have modeled it.

So, let's see here...of the 8 HRs he hit at Coors Field in 2009, the corrected distances for an AVERAGE park would be (ordered by true distance):

Now...his other HRs were hit at Chase Field (another launching pad with about a 4-5% distance correction required to account for very thin air despite not as high altitude), Wrigley Field (no distance correction needed), Angel Stadium (a 1-2% distance correction), Great American Ballpark (no correction), McAfee, Comerica and PETCO (all required a correction UPWARD in the neighborhood of 2%, 1% and 4% respectively (I'm estimating the smaller corrections based on comparing average air densities at those locations to climatological average for the whole USA).

The adjust road HRs now look like (again, in order of true distance from Hit Tracker):

Meaning his context-adjusted average HR distance is NOT 410+...it's actually more like 400 feet (399.2).

His average HR distance at Safeco would be about 380 feet applying a 5% downward correction. Yes, even the lefties still have to contend with denser air. with his distribution of balls to right and right center, I estimate he'd lose about 3 HRs at Safeco in the RCF gap and probably a few doubles too.

wow hr distances

Where would you pull up hr distances? baseball reference?

thx OBP_Train

here's the link...

...lots of groovy data can be found at:

hittrackeronline.com

Hope you enjoy browsing. :)

You'd have to get reaaally

You'd have to get reaaally creative to adjust 410+ feet to 380 average. Smith does NOT have Jose Lopez type power, I'm sorry. Lopez isn't going to suddenly start averaging 415 on his HRs if he moves to Coors.

Whether its 405 (which is a more reasonable adjustment, 380 is not) or 410+, he has power that will translate to Safeco. Hes definetly not Jeff Cirillo or even Jose Lopez, and hes lefty. The point is, his production isn't a Coors effect. Using park

80-100 OPS is just an unrealistic adjustment IMO. Coors isn't the type of launchpad it used to be, and Smith isn't the type of hitter who'll suffer a big loss.

15-25 OPS points is reasonable, but we don't even know how good of a hitter Smith is yet. 25 OPS points off of his '09 line would have STILL made him the best hitter on the '09 Ms squad.

The adjustment was to 400.

Not 380. The 380 was on his Safeco HRs of equivalent trajectory...the neutral distance HR adjustment was 400.

And I'm not pulling this out of nowhere...it's coming from pure PHYSICS. Incidentally, you claim that he hits line drive HRs...but hit tracker data says his upward trajectory on impact is about the same as league average. So...you're not right about that either.

I don't think 25 OPS points down is "reasonable"...I claim 60-100 points will come off the moment he moves from Coors to a pitcher's park. The actual data backs my claim. All you have is a mancrush and a bunch of assumptions. Oh and the hope that because he's still relatively young...he'll grow new skill.

Incidentally...do you imagine it's an accident that four of his five longest HRs last year happened at Coors? And the other one happened at the second worst launching pad in the NL?

If you're arguing 400-405

If you're arguing 400-405 feet I'd say you'd be being reasonable. If you're trying to argue that hes going to average 380 feet in Safeco I'd say you're being rediculous. Ibanez gained about 2 feet per HR moving from Safeco to Philly. Branyan came to Safeco and had his highest average HR distance ever. There isn't a ton of evidence for players changing parks and DRASTICALLY changing their average HR distances.

I do think 400-405 feet would be a reasonable estimate for Seth Smith, only because its extremely difficult to maintain a rate of 415 (and there is a slight park adjustment). I DON'T think its reasonable to assume that ANY of those last 6 HRs wouldn't have gone out in Safeco (ALL of those are WELL out).

Tell me EXACTLY WHICH of Seth Smith's 2009 HRs you think WOULDN'T have been out in Safeco? The only HR that I see that is even remotely debatable is the one he hit in Oakland, and that a big stretch (a 396 foot blast to right-center). Smith HRs travel in the area in Safeco where the ball travels the most (right to right-center) and they are WAY out.

I don't think shaving 80-100 OPs points off for the park adjustments is very realistic at all. I see an argument for Smith losing ONE HR, and I see it as a very weak argument.

Smith averaged 106.9mph on

Smith averaged 106.9mph on his Hrs off the bat. Those are some smoked Hrs.

I can't even tell if you really hate the idea Seth Smith or if you're just arguing for arguments sake. I'd bet if Z made this move in a vaccuum and I never mentioned him, you'd be praising it. :-)

Seth Smith is kind of like Raul Ibanez IMO, but hes much more patient (he'll have a higher OBP), slightly lower contact rate (by about 1.5%), and is on younger legs (which is good for about 10 runs on defense+basrunning).

I'm not saying I'd hate Smith.

I'm saying I'd have lower expectations than you do.

BTW, MLB average batted ball velocity on HRs is (wait for it) 106 mph. So...not, 106.4 mph is not smoked for a HR...it's normal.

For comparison's sake, the average speed of a Griffey tater last year was: 102.4 mph...and we all agreed that Griffey was hitting long slow flyball HRs instead of stinging the ball.

Ya, but you can certainly see

Ya, but you can certainly see the upside too right? His swing is a great fit for Safeco, hes undervalued by his current team, and his bat is pretty intriguing. I personally can't identify a single '09 HR that wouldn't have gone out in Safeco.

I was looking through the top HR hitters and found most people settling below 106mph. I think maybe the league-average hitter is more likely to hit a LD HR than a back-spin HR hitter (league-average means league-average hitting plane as well). If you check out the top 10 AL HR hitters, I found that most of 'em are below the 106 range.

Where do you find those league-average stats btw? Is it also hittracker?

Yes.

You can get summary stats for whole groups of players.

Most of the big power hitters are backspin moonshot HR hitting types with a 40 degree launch angle and a 102 mph speed...the resulting distances are long and the shots have a high arc. But most hitters only hit HRs when they hit them really hard because they don't have the uppercut swing.

RCF at Safeco is 390 feet. If you adjust down from COlorado distances to Safeco distances I find at least three HRs that probably wouldn't be HRs (that's conducting a -7% down from Coors to regular and then another -4% down from average park to Safeco...although you might be right that I'm overdoing it a bit on Safeco for left handed topspin hitters...the topspin thing might protect him a bit).

Name those 3 Hrs.. On a new

Name those 3 Hrs.. On a new freaking thread. :-)

The three dead HRs

LOL, taro (regarding the thread becoming too long...) That last post was one letter per row...LOL

OK...here are the three I think die at Safeco:

The 413 footer off Clay Zavata at Coors Field...that one travels less than 390 feet in a neutral parkand could be an out at Safeco.

The 406 footer at Great American Park...because it's well toward the CF side of RCF and wouldn't go as far at Safeco, I think that hits the wall or is caught.

OK...one of them...the 390 footer...was actually at McAfee so that one is legit.

And I had ruled out the 385 footer as being able to stay fair at Safeco, but I didn't notice that was was a rocket line drive at 109 mph and 22 degrees of elevation (and only 53 feet of rise)...so...that probably stays fair even at Safeco.

So it may only be two he loses.

Now I know why Doc prefers 10

Now I know why Doc prefers 10 post threads. :-)

Seriously though, I don't think Smith would have lost any of his '09 HRs in Safeco.

The 413 footer for example was at 65.6 degrees in right field where the wind blows out in Safeco and you've got a HR at around 365-370 feet. That ball is definetly out in Safeco too, and probably well into the stands.

The 406 footer was at 76.1 degrees in right-center where you have a HR at about 380 feet in Safeco. I mean its possible that it was a factor of the Cincinatti ballpark, but again the ball travels fine in that area in Safeco and it probably still clears the wall and into the seats. I mean you have to shave 26 feet of of that HR for it to become even remotely catchable..

I don't think Smith's Hr distance would be penalized by Safeco (although he'd lose some from leaving Colorado). His power is pretty much COMPLETELY right to right-center where the wind blows out. In fact in his career, hes only had ONE HR in left to center in 2008 against Tim Lincecum in SF. A 382 footer to left field that may or may not have been knocked down in Safeco (still probably would have cleared the 370 foot wall). I mean Lopez had a ton of those type of HRs last season. Smith has had one in his career so far.

Smith might lose 5-10 points of BABIP (all singles likely) due to outfields playing deeper in Col, but hes one of the rare player types who probably wouldn't suffer much in the transition from Colorado to Safeco. I actually think Holliday himself would suffer a bigger penalty (though not much himself).

I also double-checked the

I also double-checked the speed off bat, and it looks like league-average is 103.6mph (which would mean that Smith's HRs are hit harder than average - its the backspin IMO). I'm sure you got the data from a legit source, but since hittracker uses that scale its likely accurate for their system.

For Lowe?

Taro, I like Smith.

I am curious about your opinion about how Saunders compares to Smith going forward. Also whether the delta between the two would be greater then the value the M's would have to give up to obtain Smith.

If I were to concede that Saunders = Smith, I would not accept Lowe as compensation in a 1 for 1 trade unless I were desperate for a solid relief option, of which, this offseason, there seem to be many.

Is Smith still worth it if I had to trade Lowe+Saunders, for example?

I wouldn't do Lowe+Saunders

I wouldn't do Lowe+Saunders since I don't think it would cost that much, and Colorado just doesn't have any need for an OF at all.

I think Saunders has about 10 runs on Smith in defense, but at this point is a far inferior hitter. Saunders has more upside, but also more downside due the unpredictability of how his bat will develop. Ideally we'd develop Saunders in LF, with Smith getting half of his PAs as an OF and half as a DH.

Colorado might have interest in Jose Lopez, but I really do think Lowe will get it done. Hes one of the hardest throwing relievers in the game, pitched 80+ innings, and had a good ERA in '09. Maybe I'm misreading Smith's trade value, but that seems to be a match to me. Colorado went out of their way to NOT give Smith regular playing time. With their OF projecting as Carlos Gonzalez-Fowler-Hawpe, they just don't have room for Smith. Maybe Lowe + a B-/C spec.

How'd you come up with that 103.6

It's possible I screwed something up in finding the 106.1 I found...so what'd you do to get that average. I don't want to make the same mistake twice if I run into that kind of question in the future.

The big time power hitters tend to hit slow, majestic flyballs...the Seth Smiths and Jose Lopezes of the world tend to hit frozen ropes. I do think Smeth has more power than Lopez...but I still believe he loses more doubles and a couple more HRs than you are saying here leaving Colorado for a pitcher's park.

I would pencil him in around .840 or so for my projected OPS (.280/.365/.475) with room for some upside since he's still only 27.

Its on the main page.. You

Its on the main page.. You can see it under "League Stats" under in the leaderboards.

I actually don't disagree with your conclusion at all. Now I'm trying to figure out what we were arguing about. An 840 OPS with upside is right around where I'd have him at Seattle in '10.

To be clear I think he loses some singles going from Colorado to Seattle as opposed to a bunch of XBHs. In '09 in particular I don't think he loses any HRs, but in a typical year I could see him losing 1-2 HRs (they should turn into doubles though with his swing).

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