Interesting thread started by BKafflen at Mariner Central on Marco Scutaro.

.

Q.  Who is this guy?  I think I had him on my roto team for a month in 1998.

A.  As opposed to Jack Wilson, he hits a little more, fields a little less, and will take a dime instead of a dollar.

Jack Zduriencik's interest in Scutaro is, appropriately, the same as your roto team's interest in him.  He's a "steady Eddie" shortstop who fills in when the Grim Reaper has left your roster on life support.

.

Q.  The Jays get Type A compensation for Scutaro if they just keep him and let him walk this winter.  That means the trade price for Scutaro would be too pricey?

A.  IFF your assumption is that a 1st, and "sandwich," pick, are worth like two PCL All-Stars.  But they aren't.

A pick in the second half of round 1, and a "sandwich" (between 1st and 2nd rounds) pick between #31 and #42, aren't worth nearly what fans tend to think they are.  

We went through this once this year :- ) so here's our Febrary article on the subject.  If you wormhole to that link, you'll find 60 picks tabled for you:  all of the ballplayers drafted between #11 and #30 in the first round, years 2004-06.  You'll be blown away by how few ML impact players there are, and how few there figure to be.

A player who is selected, say, #20 in the first round is going to beat the house if he EVER makes an org's top 5 MINOR league prospects. 

For example, Josh Fields (the #20 first-rounder in his draft) is rated by Sickels as the M's #14 prospect.  (Fields isn't in BBA's top 10 that I saw, probably because he signed late.)

When you talk about "a first-round pick and a sandwich pick," we fans tend to visualize that as meaning "Phillippe Aumont and Michael Saunders."  But GM's realize that first-round ammy picks -- if outside the top 10 picks -- aren't nearly the purified gold we assume they are.

Jharmidy DeJesus, Michael Pineda, and a throwin, something like that, might be worth more to the Jays than Type A compensation.   Certainly you could trade Greg Halman and change for a vet of Scutaro's caliber.

.

Q.  But that's how you wind up with Choo for Broussard.

A.  Absolutely.

Look, sometimes you're going to trade a prospect and he's going to get good.  At the time Choo was traded, he was labeled "a #4 outfielder at best" by cyber-Seattle -- CERTAINLY a platoon outfielder at the tippy-top.

Broussard was hitting a lefthand 320/360/520 at the time.  Anybody here wouldn't deal Wlad Balentien, right here right now, for a LH 320/360/520 bat?   What happens when Wlad hits 38 homers two years on?

The other team wouldn't trade!, unless there was SOME chance of a guy Choo'ing it.  

But as the Yankees said when I was a kid, that's what your minor leagues are there for.  To trade for good major league players.

.

Q.  IS Scutaro good?

A.  :shrug: like IceX said, you'd be buying high.

His 2009 OBP of .383 looks great.  His career OBP of .334 doesn't.

Granted, he is getting older and he is walking more.  His "EYE" is improving (as it does for most old players) and you can expect his OBP to go up a bit.

But before you swoon away, check his monthly splits.   Did that cost you most of your enthusiasm?  Thought so.  :- )

.

Q.  Could he help THIS team?

A.  Well, if Jack Wilson can, then Scutaro can.  Scutaro can probably still OPS+ 90 for a while, and he's probably an above-average defender (fangraphs' UZR has him #4 among all ML shortstops this year, and had him at a silly +20 runs last year).

With Wilson you'd be getting an 80 OPS and probably an excellent glove, and with Scutaro you could figure a 90 OPS and a quality glove.

In principle I take the offense, because the defense is just conversation.  We're only guessing at it.  Why did UZR have Scutaro at +20 last year -- but actually minus in other years?

Point A:  Scutaro wasn't the starting SS in other years.  Point B:  we don't know what we're doing, measuring defense.

We DO know what we're doing measuring offense:  Scutaro can hit better than Wilson can.  Definitely.  MAYBE Wilson can field better than Scutaro can.  Maybe, probably.

..................

But you can weight defense hard at two positions:  CF and SS.  I won't blame you if you prefer Wilson, considering the position.

.

Q.  So which do you want?

A.  Wilson makes $8M; Scutaro makes $1M.  And it sounds like Wilson would cost more in trade.  Which do you want?

Jack Wilson has five years left as a Major League (TM) Gold Glove (TM) shortstop.  He's going to make $$$$.  He needs to go to some team that wants to build around him.  That's not my team; I don't pay 10% of my payroll to a slick fielder who can't hit. 

Marco Scutaro is a cheaper, and more efficient, tourniquet around the M's gutshot at SS.   BABVA's virtual Safeco team takes Scutaro over Wilson every day and twice on Felix day.

Cheers,

Dr D