I/O: Jack Cust is available -- via a Langerhans-type dingleberry deal. He's in the A's org but not on their 40-man. Here the M's are wandering in the desert in search of an HR fountain.
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CRUNCH1: Obviously the M's have Ken Griffey Jr as the DH vs RHP, so for them this exercise seems mostly theoretical.
If for some reason you thought you could recover Cust's 140 OPS+'s from 2007 and 2008, you'd have to either (1) make Junior a coach, (2) give Cust (or Junior) some AB's vs LHP's and some of them at 1B/LF, maybe pushing Sweeney out of the org, or (3) go to an 11-man pitching staff and make the guys fight for AB's, Oakland-style.
It's not impossible; it's awkward -- but in this case it would be v-e-r-y awkward.
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CRUNCH2: SSI was one of Cust's few advocates when he came up and landed with a splash ... it's hardly like we're biased against. But the problemo is that Cust's approach to the game of baseball was warped in 2009.
To wit, David Goliebiewski's fine article and Dave Allen's great article provide the meat-and-potatoes to a saber buffet on Mr. Cust. Exec Sum is: Cust has been expanding his strike zone for the last year.
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But! Is this because Cust wants shorter counts, fewer K's, and a better AVG? Or is it a function of his age and declining reflexes?
Allen suggests, reasonably, that Cust's strike zone -- "swinging less hard at more pitches" -- is simply a choice on Cust's part. That's the $64,000 question, because his OPS+ dropped off to 105 with the new approach. In 2007-08, Cust had a Power Index (PX) well over 200, which is kind of like having a fastball that clocks 103 MPH. In 2009 that PX was only 127.
If that's true, some team could acquire a 130-140 OPS+ player for the cost of a Mike Morse.
No matter what contortions it would require, if Cust is a 130-140 Russell Branyan type, there for the taking, they couldn't afford to pass it up.
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CRUNCH3: Just the fax, ma'am:
- Cust's EYE has gone 1.02 (AAA) to 0.60 to 0.56 to 0.50 the last four years - rather stable
- His AVG vs LH is steady, .218 to .235 to .221 the last three years
- His GB/FB rate is trending towards FB, but only gently so
- He is 31 years old
Huh!
I saw BaseballHQ's skepticism on Cust for 2010, sat down expecting to write that Cust was seeing his age decline phase ... and slap me silly if I don't agree with Allen's instinct that Cust simply chose to stop working super-deep counts. HQ is probably wrong on this one. There's nothing different about Cust, other than the fact that he's not stalking pitches any more.
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CRUNCH4: Possible objections to the above conclusion?
(1) His swing doesn't look slower, or weaker, to me. Here's a video example of Cust going 400+ the other way last year.
(2) You could wonder whether the problem wa that Cust has been booked -- that some hole in his zone was found -- but Allen's strike-zone report puts paid to that idea.
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Dr's R/X: I'd say the odds are 70-80% that some team could (1) acquire Cust, (2) tell him not to worry about 3-2 counts and 200 strikeouts, and (3) score a 7-8 runs-per-27 DH.
There's probably a Russell Branyan out there for the asking. If Cust resurfaced in an AL lineup, I'd grab him.
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Cheers,
Dr D
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