Q. Bottom line: what's the Dr's R/X?
A. Subjectively speaking, I hope the lad does not come here. But objectively speaking, he's an interesting gamble, almost a Sheets-level gamble.
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Q. The internet consensus is that Liriano is underrated, with a FIP much better than his ERA, and is a good #3 starter. Pretty solid starting pitcher find, no?
A. Pretty solid starting pitcher find, no.
"Solid" is the one thing that Liriano isn't.
It is painful to watch this kid pitch. His fastball sits 88 with no life whatsoever, and he does absolutely nothing but nibble with it, hoping for called strikes.
Here's a video example: 8 K's on Aug 13 vs KC ... he throws the fastball like a 38-year-old innings eater, never daring to come into the strike zone, just hoping batters will whale away at a pitch that's too far away from them for their batheads to reach.
Liriano's slider is an even sadder sight. Watch the video above, or this one against the Yankees. Check pitches #4 to #6 on the Yankee video (after the pathetic 87 mph fastballs on #1-3) and tell me you have ever seen any ML pitcher throw a slider with less movement than that.
That is, quite literally, high-school movement, and it was the same way all year long.
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Q. Was he better in April, when he was fresh?
A. Just a little. Not much at all. He occasionally hit 92-93 in April. Occasionally.
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Q. Was he better in September, when they moved him to the pen?
A. He was worse in the pen. In terms of life on the ball. Of course, he was gassed for the year.
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Q. So how in the world does this guy fan 8 men per ballgame?
A. The good news is that Liriano has that super-deceptive motion. His arm corkscrews behind his ear like a pig's tail, then it appears out of nowhere, and WHOOOM, the ball's obviously halfway to the plate before they pick it up.
The fact that Liriano can fan 7-8 men a game, with such low-minors stuff on the ball, is a testimony to his "80" plus-plus-plus deception.
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But don't get the idea that his 5.80 ERA last year was simply bad luck, code cracked, drive home safely everybody. When Liriano misses fastball over the plate, it is a batting-practice pitch.
Deception or no deception, Liriano's fastball was smashed for a -1.99 runs value over the entire 2009 season. As Dave Allen pointed out, even when Liriano was 95 mph, his fastball run value was disappointing, and now that he's got no mustard at all, the FB is an invitation to run him through with a bat-katana.
This guy was 26 going on 46.
He's always pitched off his slider, in Aaron Sele fashion almost, and now it's Sele-squared for Liriano.
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Q. So the mechanics help him out with deception, but rip the arm up?
A. Yes, which probably explains why he's taking so long to get back from TJ. Hard for your arm to heal if you're re-stressing it again with every pitch.
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