POTD Eric Byrnes

Q. What does HQ have to say on Byrnes at 34?

A. Thusly:

300 PA
10 SB, .250/.300/.425 (yowwch)
Can still run, as indicated by high SB/opp and SB%
Terrible OBP zaps SB value anyway
Static PX (power) and xAVG trends say no rebound in 2010

With a $9 bid and 4.4 runs per game projection.

Q. Do you agree with that?

A. Actually on this one I'd have to differ with the Bearded Prophet.

I don't buy the argument that Byrnes' career decline is evidenced by a limp-n-lifeless PX trend, simply because in his career 2007 All-Star season, his PX was the same as in 2008 and 2009.

It's a lonnnnng argument, but simply put, I don't see an age decline in Byrnes' component-skills profile ... nothing that goes beyond simple injury, anyhow.

Q. What would a bounceback year from Byrnes look like in fulltime play?

A. Probably would look like his years with the A's, before the funny training, if in fact that's what caused the 2006-07 glory ... The A's years being .270 with 30 doubles, 20 homers, 15-20 SB's, and four uniforms a game.

A 100-110 OPS+ with good defense in LF and decent cover defense in CF as a backup.

Q. At 34, what are the chances of that?

A. 50-50 in case A, or 0% in case B.

Byrnes' recent injury was an HBP broken hand, which is good news. It means the rest of his body is tanned, rested and ready to go. As a speed player, 34 isn't necessarily a death sentence for Byrnes...

On the other hand, if his 2006-07 burst was caused by funny training methods, those hammies are going to keep him off the field for the rest of his life. Classic syndrome there.

Q. Can he platoon?

A. Eric Byrnes has never done a thing in his life but SLG .500 against LHP's, and that includes 2008 and 2009.

Off LHP's, Byrnes can and will hit like Jose Lopez or Michael Cuddyer, .300/.350/.500. Byrnes is a 3-position backup outfielder.

That's pretty cool. People asked earlier about a 1B/DH bench guy who hits 300/350/500 against lefties -- that's lame. But to get the same thing from your backup CF, now I'm down with that.

Q. Z says he's here to compete for a job.

A. Which is probably understating it.

If Byrnes is limping, he's still that 3-position backup CF who smacks lefties around. But the upside scenario is that he heals up and gets back to, not 2006-07, but at least to his salad days in Oakland.

It's nice to see the M's investing their ST at-bats on a guy who has a quality chance to surprise people. There have been years when those AB's would have gone to a well-liked player with no chance at all.

Q. Byrnes compared to Saunders?

A. Would much rather have a talented developmental player than an MLB(TM) retread any time; it's more fluid and dynamic.

But if Saunders needs AB's and is going to be in Tacoma anyway, fine. I guess that by "competing for a job" Zduriencik meant, if Saunders doesn't hit .370 in March, then a healthy Byrnes is in the DH/OF rotation.

Q. Byrnes compared to Langerhans?

A. As you know, I view Langerhans as a slider-speed bat who OPS'ed 86 both in 2009 and for his career.

Byrnes >> Langerhans for me.

Byrnes isn't the end of the world, but as a 200-AB guy hitting lefties and backing up all the OF spots, that's a championship-level end of the bench.

Q. Anything else?

A. Hey, here's something weird. Eric Byrnes can steal bases off lefthand pitchers. He's 28-and-6 for his career. I'll bet you that's best among active players.

And he's 128-and-23 stealing bases all time. The dude comes to play.

Cheers,

Dr D

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Hes a good defender even in

Hes a good defender even in CF, strong against LHP even in his down years, and has some possible upside as well. At league minimum its a great get.

Langerhans, in a small sample, has hit better vs LHP in his career than RHP. It doesn't seem like he fits anymore with the Byrnes addition.

A Saunders+Byrnes platoon in left makes a whole lot more sense with Bradley taking over as a full-time DH (and Griffey stealing a start or two per week against good matchups). You put Saunders in a nice position to succeed and develop in his rookie season and you also maximize the value out of LF and DH for '10.

I like this move quite a bit.

I can't imagine Saunders is a

I can't imagine Saunders is a part of a platoon. You can't let the kid spend a year not facing left-handed pitching. I would imagine the plan is that Bradley plays in LF and Griffey DHs vs right handers. Then you go with Byrnes in LF and Bradley at DH vs lefties.

Langerhans remains the fourth outfielder.

Of course things could change if Saunders mashes in spring training and/or Byrnes and Langerhans are terrible.

I just can't buy into a straight platoon of Saunders/Byrnes in left field. It would likely provide the best results, but I don't think it helps Saunders long term.

The Position Players look

The Position Players look pretty much set to me either than Kotchman. Please DFA him and sign Branyan...

The biggest hole right now is the #3 SP. Get that piece and you are pretty much set (although another extra SP wouldn't hurt either).

I don't see Langerhans making

the club at this point. Saunders is in a great situation at this point. He won't have to face those murderous lefthanders like he did when he came up last year. He'll get 250 to 300 AB's play a great outfield defense. He does everthing Langerhans does but better. Signing Byrnes allows the M's see what Saunders has over the course of the whole season. If he is doing well then he gets more playing time if he shows that he is overwhelmed then you can send him down. But I don't that will be the case.

The M's are going to be looking at putting the best 25 players out there this season and Saunders is better than Langerhans across the board.

Saunders vs Langerhans

If Saunders hits .370 in ST then Langerhans is sent packing, and Byrnes does the DH/OF thing. Langerhans only makes it if Saunders isn't ready. Byrnes doesn't make it only if he's an absolute bust, which i don't expect.

Side Note

At FanFest today, I saw Byrnes talk a bit, and meet Wakamatsu for the first time since the signing. He is full of spirit and seems likable, for what that's worth, and looks like a young 34. Maybe he's the replacement for Sweeney: the late signing who's a clubhouse sparkplug and a fill-in-the-gaps guy in the lineup.

Good snippet Arne

That matches up with what Capt Jack said at signing.

Thanks. I was thinking Wak

Thanks. I was thinking Wak and Byrnes know each other from Oakland, but they didn't come close to crossing paths there. They certainly looked on good terms at the event today, though the mics were off when they talked. It seems Byrnes has the same sort of casual but intense Californian personality of a Randy Johnson or George Brett.

I'd rather have David Byrne

But Eric will do. He's not a good guy to sign to a pricey mulit-year deal with the expectations of him playing every day as was the case with Arizona because he is reckless and going to get himself hurt. But as a bench player making essentially nothing, he's a great get. He can play every outfield position, pinch-run and has the capability to be a productive hitter.