POTD Erasmo Ramirez, 1

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Short people got ... noooooo reason .... :: randy newman ::

Q. Does SSI grok Erasmo Ramirez as comparable to Doug Fister?

A. Possibly. They seem to share the traits of truly elite command within the strike zone. Beyond that, we'll see if Erasmo has the supplemental weapons that separate him from the pack.

There are any number of right hand pitchers who walk 1 batter per game in the minors. What Doug Fister did that made him different was this:

His 1 BB rates were based on wondrous location -- based on superlative mechanics for a tall guy -- and not on over-challenging
He seemed to have a swing-through, plus-plus, changeup at the time he came up

As it turned out, what SSI saw as a very cool changeup turned out to be something 10 degrees different: a nice talent for offspeed pitches in general, and for setting up hitters.

Erasmo Ramirez also seems to be walking 21 men in 151 innings not on the Blake Beavan-style "every pitch a strike" basis, but on Moyer-like command. That makes him different.

Here, check out the 4th paragraph in this article. That Navarro quote, plus Lonnie's spring training videos, suggest that Ramirez may indeed have Fister-like command.

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Q. Is it okay that he's real short?

A. It's not okay, no.

Baseball has always hated the short, right hand pitcher and in the last few years, we have figured out why. The "perceived velocity" of their fastballs is much lower than their actual velocities. See this SSI article on Ian Snell and this BP article on the same general topic.

Q. So Erasmo's effective velocity will be about -3 mph to the radar gun. Does this doom him?

A. It does not, no. It is a hindrance to him.

Now that we know this about Erasmo, we can proceed to Level 201 Scan. If Erasmo is throwing 90-94, okay, that's an effective 87-91. Now the question becomes, "which 87-91 pitchers in Erasmo's template succeeded, and which didn't?"

Ian Snell threw 92, effectively 88 -- and Ian Snell tried to pitch like a guy with a great fastball - trying to pitch in the Josh Beckett template. Two pitches, challenge FB's at the knees, and a RH slider. That template does not work at 88 mph, period.

But! Erasmo is approaching the game from the Greg Maddux family of pitchers template. That's another conversation.

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Also, he has long arms, and a long stride, which tempers the situation a bit. Call it -2 mph to the radar gun, thusly:

Q. Fister had unusual movement. Does Erasmo have anything going for him like that?

A. He does! Erasmo throws across his body. This hides the ball -- creating a higher perceived velocity LOL -- and usually gives a pitcher increased spin on the ball. Think Jeff Nelson and Randy Johnson. Luis Tiant, Jose Contreras.

Bringing us to ...

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good article on the Ms pitching options this Spring

From John Hickey:

Expect Paxton, Walker and Hultzen to start the season in the minor leagues. Ramirez, too. The starting staff for Triple-A Tacoma should be loaded.

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"Publicity is one thing, and a lot of the time when people talk about our young pitching, they talk about Hultzen, Paxton and Walker," GM Jack Zduriencik said. "But when I talk about our young pitching, I always talk about Erasmo.

"I don’t see it as him flying under the radar, because we have always liked him. He has kind of shot through the system. And he has pitched at Triple-A, which the other three haven’t."

And later, about Hultzen:

The Mariners don’t want to talk about a timetable, although they don’t want to hold him back.

"There is no concrete timetable," Zduriencik said. "As an organization, we’re going to be realistic and cautious. We’re not expecting Mike Leake, but you never know, either."

Leake was taken by Cincinnati with the eighth pick in the 2009 draft, pitched in the AFL, then bypassed the minor leagues by making the Reds’ 2010 roster.

I agree with the overall assessment. I think our starting 5 in April works out as Felix / Vargas / Iwakuma / Millwood / Noesi. Furbush will be in the pen, Beavan will be down in AAA with Paxton, Erasmo AND Hultzen. And right now Hultzen seems like he's in pole position for the first promotion.

Which means: enjoy Vargas's last year with us, I'm thinkin'. And Iwakuma's gonna have to bring it. Noesi can just go back to the pen if we don't like him as a starter, but I expect to like him quite a bit.

Nobody better struggle early in the rotation, though: we'll have a lot of pressure to apply from the minors.

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