Q. Is Aardsma any good?
A. Sure he is. He's a white-knuckle power reliever. There's a place for every pitcher who can strike out 10 men per game.
We're not trying to draw Disney pastel cartoon characters here. Guys who fan 10, and walk 5, have a role.
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Q. Why is he good?
A. Aardsma's "max-effort" -- ahem, broken -- delivery creates a hide-the-ball, short-arm effect.
He might register 95 on the gun, but that can look like 97, 98 when you're short-arming it from behind your ear. Add another 1-2 mph for a hitter trying to catch a letter-high pitch.
Aardsma doesn't fan 10 men a game by no blinkin' mistake. He's effectively wild -- he's not sure where it's going, so how can the hitter know --
And he's throwing, effectively, 97-99 up in the zone. His fastball is a really excellent pitch.
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The problemo, of course, is the price tag associated. The homers. He dodged a bullet last year. But it says here that his career 4.28 FIP is about right for what he'll do the next five years -- 10k, 4-5 walks, 1.3 homers.
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Q. Can you close with 10k, 5bb, and 1.3 homers?
A. You can't, no. You'll never find a guy who reliably saved games with that profile.
They can be neat as the 4th reliever in a great bullpen. They're fun when you have 2 or 3 men on base and you want to roll the dice, hoping for a quick nuke of a rally -- win or lose the game right there.
Guys like Aardsma, Armando Benitez, Bobby Ayala (hey, he was good at times) -- you bring them in and in Strat-O-Matic, it's like "okay, Teixeira's card doesn't count. The white die rolled 4-5-6. We're using Aardsma's card for this AB.
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Q. What did your hero Shandler say about Aardsma?
A. Believe me or don't... I didn't look him up until just now. I figgered if Ron got this one wrong, I'd listen to what he had to say... How's that fer swagger. :- )
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Yep, I knew I could count on Mr. HQ. Keep in mind that he gets all these players right in 30 cities, not one.
He lists "four reasons to be skeptical", paraphrasing just to be safe. The below all refer to his 2009 season:
- xERA is high (3.99) so ERA is very misleading
- BABIP is far below historical levels (27% as opposed to 33%) ... and
- ... Strand % was wayyyy too favorable (80% compared to normal 70%, and Aardsma's been at 65% historically)
- Extreme fly ball split (implied HR risk)
- History of CTL problems
Ron finishes with, "2H CMD is a step, but this is not a stud-closer profile. Caution."
He means, Aardsma did step up his second half K/BB to 8.7/3.1. If you were an Aardsma fan, that would be the thread of hope you'd cling to. That he's going to gain location as he goes along.
I don't think that the mechanics permit this. Even if the mechanics permitted it, you're talking about one pitch, a short-arm, rising FB up in the zone. You're not going to make a career off that.
Aardsma's been a good soldier, and can help the M's off and on. If it's my team, I say "THANK YOU VERY MUCH" on that 2009 season and I trade for Brandon League.
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Cheers,
Dr D
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