Q. Wait, you would have drafted this dude right behind Strasburg and Ackley?
A. The good news is, he does show an overpowering fastball. He does throw three different breaking pitches, all of which can embarrass good hitters.
And whether he's young or not, he is definitely early in his development, which amounts to the same thing.
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Q. Overpowering fastball?
A. In the vids available, Chapman is being clocked at 91-94 but even WBC Japanese hitters are having lots of trouble catching up to it.
It's a Morrow-type fastball, tight-spin, excellent life. The ball jumps out of his hand.
Chapman "gets on top" of the fastball beautifully, in Chuck Finley, Mark Mulder style, and the FB just explodes on hitters even at 93 mph.
Chuck Finley is the guy he reminds me of. Plus some arm -- Chuck, though an All-Star caliber starter, didn't have the arm this kid has. But both had overhand LH deliveries, got on top of the ball, threw at a gorgeous angle, gave hitters nightmares.
Even when you beat Chuck, it was never any fun.
...............
And remember, 91-94 is what we saw on two or three videos. The scouts say, touches 100, so evidently they've seen more velo than the videos show.
Give Chapman a legit 95-98 fastball, as they claim he has, and you can see a Randy Johnson-type upside. Off in the distance, we mean. Through the fog. Faintly.
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Q. He takes flak for his secondary pitches.
A. Odd, because on the vids his breaking pitches are very exciting.
He throws an 81-83 slurve with real good arm action: he throws it overhand but it shapes just like George Sherrill's. Even the WBC hitters had all kinds of difficulty reading it.
He throws a change-curve exactly 70-71 mph (!) that will remind you of David Wells', RRS', or Luke French's on a good day. Imagine RRS' change-curve whipsawed against a 97 fastball?!
Aroldis is the anti-RRS: rather than throwing thirty 90 pitches, thirty 80 pitches and thirty 70 pitches, Chapman will hit every spot in-between. You have no idea how long the pitch is going to be into the batter's box.
Chapman is no finished product by any means, but a little spit-and-polish and you can see Randy Johnson, add a David Wells change curve. LOL.
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Q. So when do the Mariners sign him?
A. Chapman is eligible to be signed by an FA team, today, Tuesday. He's not getting the offers he wants.
His agent calls him, quote, a once in 40, 50 years prospect. ML scouts call him a great prospect. The difference between the two means, draft day arrived, and Aroldis didn't get drafted.
I'd be glad to take Chapman #3, #4, #5 in a June draft. He's an Andrew Miller, David Price comp, maybe a bit more exciting in terms of upside, probably a better chance of a bust, too.
That's praise, not criticism.
But his agent is sitting over there "being patient" that somebody will blow $100M like on DiceK. I'd be shocked.
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Q. Precedents and predictions?
A. The Yankees beat the Red Sox out for Jose Contreras with a 4/$32m contract. A team like the Yankees has $30M to blow on a roll of the dice.
It's harder to imagine the Mariners taking that kind of risk. But hey, they know the price of admission, and they're over there, right?
Eyes slideways,
Dr D
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