Part 1

=== "A" Game ===

Now don't forget, in 2008-09 we're talking mostly about a guy whose arm wasn't as fresh as it could have been.  He missed time on the DL with a forearm strain, a la John Lackey.

Meet the "A Game" Aaron Harang, the way he was in 2005-07 when he was one of the 5-6 best pitchers in the National League:

August 9 vs San Francisco

Here, in the second half of the vid, you see Harang not only painting with his fastball, but also getting late explosion on it.

You see him not only commanding his slider, but throwing it 83-84 mph (not 79-80) and getting a big, late, biting swerve on it at the end.  At times, Harang's slider bites like Felix' does.

Harang without the life on his stuff is a 21st-century take on Catfish Hunter; add the bite to his game and he's a Cy Young candidate.  

If Harang comes back in 2010 from his light 160 innings last year, if he's popping the fastball and spinning the slider like he was in 2005-07, he's a big star again.

....

Back to a game in which the "B" version of Harang fans 10 Cubs:  Cin vs ChiN

Here you see the '08-09 game again, torturing batters with location, catching them "in between" as to slider?-fastball? and as to strike?-ball?

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=== When He Loses ===

So if this guy's so good, how does he lose 17 games...

Well, Harang is definitely around the plate.  Batters are going to put the ball in play sharply.  Sometimes this kind of guy gives up 12 hits in a game, because the ball misses fielders that night.

Catfish was that way, too.  It's part of the nature of the "Picture-perfect Righty" family of pitchers -- they throw so many strikes that sometimes the pinball game just goes against them.

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=== Stylistic Match for the Ballclub ===

Bill James once noted that the "won't beat themselves" pitchers -- Tommy John lefties and Jim Bunning righties -- are the two types of pitchers who need to play with good defenses in big parks.

All pitchers want that, of course, but James' point is that a Tommy John or Jim Bunning might go 5-17 for a lousy team in a bad park -- then get traded and go 17-5 for a good team.

The better your park and defense, the less you want Nolan Ryan, Daniel Cabrera, and Daisuke Matsuzaka types.  These pitchers control their own fates on the mound.  

This insight is prophetic with respect to Aaron Harang.  Cincy showed you just how bad a good low-BB pitcher can look, playing for a team like the Reds.

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=== Flyball Caveat ===

Question gets asked, well, is Harang a Ryan Franklin type?  A guy who is going to have gopheritis from here on out?

Maybe he just has the great K/BB's because he gets too much of the plate?

...........

It's a fair question, but nada.   Ryan Franklin gets a ton of the plate, every pitch.  Harang lives on the black.  The type of game Harang has, the skill set, I'm going with "unlucky" on his HR/F the last two years.

Shandler refers to HR prevention as mistake avoidance.  The idea being that you give up HR's when you center a pitch and the batter guesses right.

Harang is a Moyer type.  If he is getting too much of the plate, he moves off it.  I don't hold with the idea that Harang will continue to get tatered.

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=== Moral Compass, Dept. ===

When in doubt, I go to the K/BB stat.  Harang's is 3.3, even last year.

Pitch to contact?  Harang fanned 7.9 men per ball game.  This was last year.  Don't sell this guy short.

There are a lot of variables to consider, but me?  I believe in Harang's game.  He's a Jim Bunning, Catfish Hunter righty even at his worst.  All pitchers have up and down years -- check David Wells' career line sometime -- but this is the kind of pitcher where I'll ride out the lean times.

I'd give you Matt Tuiasosopo for 'im.

Cheers,

Dr D