=== AL / NL Gap ===
Taro links us up to an article that correlates the gap between the AL and NL to that of a 93-69 season.
The author, at Driveline Mechanics, doesn't have a lot of moving parts in the machinery of his thinking, and so provides some very sound logic. He just adds up the runs scored by the AL (6,300+) and by the NL (5,400+), over the 600-odd games played the last 5 years, and then applies James' Pythagorean Theorem* to estimate "deserved" wins and losses.
The "deserved" wins are 93 per 162 games, whereas the actual wins were 92 per 162. Another little piece of evidence confirming James' theory, by the way.
Mariners fans are more familiar with this than anybody, since IIRC the Mariners do far better against NL teams than against AL teams.
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Many studies have been done on this. Among the most interesting studies was Mitchel Litchmann's. He demonstrated that, for some reason, good NL players migrate to the AL more often than the reverse.
We've also seen, IIRC, that AL payrolls are higher.
I also suspect that having the DH hurts the National League. Would it help the CFL catch up to the NFL if they forced their offensive linemen to kick field goals, and their linebackers to stay on the field for three downs, like the NFL did in 1950?
Anyway, Japan may be closer to the NL than the NL is to the AL.
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=== Gutierrez Again ===
Another 400+ bomb on Saturday -- to right-center field.
This was not the first time. Gutierrez has been wearing out the RCF fence with missiles into the gap, and he has hit at least two long home runs to the right side recently.
Now, amigos, when you start talking about players who can go 10 rows deep the OTHER way ... well, Dr. D is partial to that type of hitter. I was excited about Matt Tuiasosopo in high school because of that. Where am I watching Franklin Gutierrez do it in the American League?
Gut, as you know, has a very torque-y swing, whippy arms, a very quiet head down on the ball. But now he has begun taking advantage of that plus-plus raw power by letting the ball get deep in the strike zone and THEN going yard.
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When you can hit the ball hard to RF, you are gaining 2 feet of length on the pitch and you slowing a 92-mph fastball down to 89 mph.
But that's not all! You are also staying "loaded" for hanging sliders. A hitter who is "cheating" out in front cannot plaster a high breaking pitch. But a hitter who is letting the ball get deep into the strike zone is also staying wound up for offspeed pitches.
Mike Piazza is the prototype, and he was simply unstoppable. IN SAFECO, Bret Boone and Edgar Martinez partied hearty -- the ball carries fine to RF and RCF in Seattle.
There is no kind of hitter I like as well as the RH hitter who takes the ball out of the catcher's mitt over the RF wall. There is no way to pitch that guy. You can't foul up his timing.
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Tui, Piazza, Edgar, Boone -- they were all fearless enough to stick their noses in there, and that's the key element to a strong RH hitter going deep the other way. F-Gut also has the super-quiet head necessary to stay down on the ball to RF.
Forget what I wrote before. :- ) What I'm writing now is, this kid is getting to be really EXCITING as a hitter.
Every ball he takes hard to right-center is sitting me up in my chair farther and farther. I don't know how much F-Gut will stay with his weight-and-wait game, but right now it's the most interesting thing to watch in a Mariner broadcast. If Franklin will zero in on that right-center power, he could turn out to be special.
And Saturday, that dinger won the ball game, right?
Cheers,
Dr D
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