=== John Benson Dept. ===

Benson, a CPA, started running the $4.5m / WAR type calculations in the 1980's, but he always emphasized a key principle:  "don't estimate inflation.  Calculate it."

What he meant is, if your specific keeper-roto league had 100 wins in the winter FA pool and $1 billion* to spend, then FA wins that year were not worth $4.5m.  That year, each win was worth $10m.

The Mariners, with Lackey and Scutaro and Bay and Crawford and a ton of guys available, have to be more specific than to figure a WAR as being worth $4.5m.   If Lackey is $15m and they project 4.5 WAR, wins are not worth $5m apiece to them.  They're worth $3.5m apiece.

For Benson, the $4.5m / WAR figure is useless until you've calculated it for that year's player pool, and dollars available.

Right now, I think that figure will be a lot lower than $4.5m per win this winter.

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=== Dr's Diagnosis ===

The second opinion here is:  the starting point that the article provided -- the paradigm -- is extremely valuable.

I personally would plug in different numbers -- a $4 to $10m possible loss, vs. a Tuiasosopo or Scutaro or Lackey or Pena (-prospects) scenario, vs. $1m assets lost on the draft pick (since I'll spend the #40 pick money on my other top-10 guys).

So from where I sit, the ROI on a Beltre offer is overwhelmingly against offering.   Flipping a coin, my $4-10m against your $1m, isn't exactly an Amarillo Slim edge in my favor.

........

Not that this paradigm would be my main one.  I'd want to be aware of it, but wouldn't prioritize it.

It is interesting that real GM's (as far as I can tell) seldom offer arbitration to players they genuinely don't want on their teams, unless that coin flip is more like 5% than 50%.

In my opinion, most fans seriously overvalue #16-#45 draft picks.  They're worth something, but not as much as fans believe.

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=== Beltre His Ownself ===

Jemanji sort of scratched his beard thoughtfully when Bill James comp'ed AB to Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson.  Bill had a point.

As a general rule, I don't think a nice mitt means much compared to 40 homers.  But Brooksie and Adrian are such amazing fielders that in their specific cases, you're glad to have them.

I just think that Safeco is a terrible field for Beltre, and that if he stays here, it's only going to get worse.

In Texas or Wrigley or Fenway, the guy might make the HOF for all I know.  In Safeco, he's just a liability.  Move on, for his sake and ours.

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=== Comeuppance Dept. ===

Remember, we all have 700 or 800 or 900 of the 1,000 Total Knowledge light bulbs off.  :- )

As solid as my math looks to me personally -- that it would be absolutely foolish to offer Beltre arbitration -- it won't surprise me in the least if Capt Jack turned around and offered it.

Maybe Zduriencik -- who knows Beltre personally -- estimates a 5% chance of Beltre accepting, rather than our 50%.   Maybe he sees something wrong with the figures I plugged in.  Or with my assumptions about the outside-the-box considerations.

Maybe Zduriencik will offer Beltre arbitration.  But the opposite decision sure looks like a forced variation to me.

My $0.02,

Dr D