Here is a group of young major-league players coming up into their first arbitration seasons (mostly) in 2011.  Would you make this trade, right here right now:

2.0 WAR Adam Jones, cf 

0.2 WAR Brandon Morrow, SP 

1.0 WAR Wladimir Balentien, of

1.3 WAR Mark Lowe, RP

Plus minor-league prospects Chris Tillman, SP.... Tony Butler, SP ... and Jeff Clement, C

for

1.5 WAR Joba Chamberlain, SP

2.2 WAR Phillip Hughes, SP/RP

-0.1 WAR Ian Kennedy, RP

4th OF / Stan Javier comp Brett Gardner, OF

Plus minor-league prospects Humberto Sanchez, SP ... Dellin Betances, SP ... and 20-year-old, RH, 160-lb outfielder Jose Tabata .297/.333/.410 at AAA.

.............

So, what do you think?   Would you give up Morrow, Adam Jones, Lowe, and three-four bright prospects (including Clement) for Joba, Phillip Hughes and five players of mixed quality?

.

=== Boy, 70% Ain't Bad, Is It? ===

Ran across a copy of the 2007 Baseball America Prospect Handbook, the one written after the 2006 season, so three years ago.

The above groups of 7 players per team, those guys all made their team's top-10 prospects list per Baseball America.  (I'm not counting Feierabend, Chen or O'Flaherty as significant prospects; they were the other Mariners making their org Top 10, but you might still be interested in Chen.)

It was interesting to me that, three years on, fully 7 of each org's Top Ten list are important players/prospects.   I had no idea that the ratio would be that high, and am guessing it would be much lower on average.

.

=== New Yawk, New Yawk Dept. ===

We all know that the Yankees overhype their prospects.  It's fine with them when the nation inevitably buys in, because they'll turn around and deal those guys for the real players they want.  

The Yankees themselves aren't being fooled, because they're constantly going out and rolling the dice on the A.J. Burnetts of the world, even after their Joba Chamberlains and Phillip Hugheses show some stuff on the big stage.

Still, you're not going to find an ESPN -- or Baseball America! -- writer tell you that a Mariner farm system is as well-stocked as the Yankees'.  Remember, 2007 was supposed to be the height of the Bavasi drought-and-famine.  The M's were taking merciless poundings for their farm system, not least from the (other) locals in Seattle.

...........

Looking at it three years on, isn't it interesting, how well the quality of the M's top ten matches the Yankees', up-and-down the list?

Just outside their top 10, the Mariners also sported Carlos Triunfel, Rob Johnson, Matt Tuiasosopo ... Michael Saunders, Greg Halman ... not to mention guys like Anthony Varvaro and Alex Liddi.

.............

We locals misjudged these farm systems as dried-up oil wells.  This in turn led to misjudging the cost associated with giving up several minor-leaguers for an AL All-Star.  ...it's one thing to trade three good prospects if you believe you only have four.  It's a different thing to trade three good prospects if you believe you have fifteen.

There are only 25 roster slots into which to cram all of these players, and the rest are redundant.  Any time you can deal players at the bottom of the pyramid, for those at the top of the pyramid, you've got to consider the imperative to sardine-pack the most RAR possible into your top 25.

..............

In my humble opinion, the ranking of one system's prospects vs. another's is one of the great baloney dumps that has survived into the 21st century.  Virtually every ML org has talented ballplayers in their farm systems, and a lot of them. 

At a time when the Red Sox were considered to have no good prospects, Bill James was asked if he could name any exciting Boston prospects, and he replied tersely, "Dozens of them."

I believe that the difference between one minor-league system and another is much smaller than casual fans tend to believe.

Cheers,

Dr D