Nick Franklin - Rollin th Dice on Projections (9)

Q. What's yer point? That the draft is a only a crapshoot?

A. So ... as amigos kick around thoughts like "this guy is a #5-10 overall but that guy's only a #20 overall," keep in mind that they're trying to measure atoms with yardsticks.

ML teams don't even know who is a 1st-rounder and who isn't. Not on draft day, they don't. So how are they going to know whether Nick Franklin is a #27 or a #7? They're not.

That's not an indictment of the people doing the ammy drafting, who are the best in the world at what they do. It's a simple observation that it isn't possible, on draft day, to tell who the best players in a draft are.

Q. Can they tell how good low-minors players are?

A. Not really. Not in the first year or two. Not usually.

Look, if you can't tell whether a 22-year-old college superstar (like, say, Dennis Raben) is going to be good -- and you can't -- why would you think that you can tell whether teenage minor leaguers are going to be good?

............

But some guys stand out like coal piles in ballrooms. A few truly special guys become obvious, even at 19. Nick Franklin is one of these. Not only the scouts, but also the fans, are aware that he's going to be an impact player in the bigs.

Fun thing for the baseball fan, is to spot these guys ahead of time. Michael Pineda was regarded a top-100 prospect this April; it was fun to realize that he was a top-10 and watch the rest of the country come up to speed.

Franklin's in that boat. One of the great underrated spects in baseball right now.

Q. What's the prognosis for Franklin in the bigs? What kind of player will he be?

A. Amigos asked about another post ::shower of crinkled Dixie cups:: comp'ing Franklin to each of these guys: the Michael Young 2.0 template, the Craig Biggio 2.0 template, and the Troy Tulowitzki.

We'll remember to Mano-a-Mano Franklin vs these three, but .... Bill James was once asked about what kind of hitter the Royals needed at first base. His reply, "They need a good hitter anywhere."

There are many routes to 6.0 - 7.0 runs per 27 outs. Doubles hitter, HR hitter, .320 hitter, etc etc.

I've got an inkling that Franklin could hit sort of like this 165-lb. shortstop did, with AVG first and (plenty of) PWR into the bargain -- and note that Franklin at age 19 is a better player than Nomah was at 19.

But of course, that guy had a Fenway-aided Mannyesque 1000 OPS+ in his prime, and Cranklin doesn't need to be quite that good to help us. But remember that guy's .600 OPS next time you're wondering whether a smaller guy can ever get to .500.

Cheers,

Dr D

POTD: Why Nick Franklin Must Bat Lefty

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Franklin notes

1. That platoon split is purdy darn nasty: .510 OPS vs. .953. That's the first sign, to me, that they won't race him to the bigs -- would they platoon him? have him try to hit LH vs. LH? keep him S despite the ugliness? That looks like Job 1 -- figure it out and then stick with it.

2. I like his trend to more BB, but he also had the most K and the lowest SLG in the month when he had the highest walks -- any hints or trends as he matures, Doc? Not making too much, but for a young guy on the fast track, the learning curve is worth watching.

April: 7 BB: 15 K, 11 xbh -- .329/.376/.624

May: 8 BB: 27 K, 14 xbh -- .316/.361/.526

June: 6 BB: 20 K, 7 xbh (but 5 were HR) -- .208/.291/.429

July: 11 BB: 17 K, 9 xbh -- .286/.384/.500

August: 17 BB: 38 K, 9 xbh -- .264/.357/.384

Trivia question: the other "natural"?

Who is three months younger than Nick Franklin and playing one level higher in the minors?

A guy who seems to have no video of his swing, but is putting up very eye-catching numbers.

Answer: Ji-Man Choi, 19-yr-old LH hitter from Korea.

The young man just totally burned up the AZ Rookie League:

39 G, 135 AB, 51 H, 15 dbl, 2 tpl, 1 HR, 21 BB: 30 K -- .378/.459/.541

And -- here is a 6-1, 195 lb. kid playing 1B and C (experimentally) with 10 SB/1 CS (in 39 G, remember). So there's some legs there, too.

So, after that stint, he is shipped past Everett and Clinton all the way to High Desert. Raben being on the DL probably was part of it, but still. They wanted to see if he'd fall on his face.

Answer: no.

11 G, 43 AB, 13 H, 1 dbl, 1 tpl, 1 HR, 6 BB: 9 K -- .302/.380/.442

In other words, easily holding his own with the bat. No catching experiment at A+ ball so far, though.

Jay Yenich (JFrom) said in response to a query in July:

"Choi has always been advertised as a great hitter and has lived up to his billing thus far, and the walks are promising, it’s just as you said, waiting for the power to come. The catching thing is mainly just an experiment, as he was a third baseman a lot of the time before signing, they just thought he might have enough of an arm to be an option behind the plate."

Like you said, Doc, we need hitters period. Thought you might want to take a gander at the Ji Man.

Not worried about his August

He's also had his most plate appearances in August, and slumped horribly in the beginning of the month (is fine in the 2nd half of it). *shrugs* Getting tired is not a crime. If the stories of him losing 20 pounds along the course of the season are true, that could also have an impact - he didn't really have it to lose.

As he gets stronger, he'll learn to keep the weight on throughout the year. I couldn't ask anything more of a first year player than what he's done in a full season.

I'm one of those guys who uses Tulo as a comp, both for the way he plays the position and his offensive output potential. Because Tulo does his at altitude, it can be a problematic comp, but I would say Tulo/Longoria is a good version of his ultimate upside, and something like Jay Bell/Jose Valentin would be his middle.

Have I mentioned I would be ecstatic to add a Jay Bell to our ML lineup? Just sayin...

And yes, I have a huge Ji-Man crush. I'm hoping that having him play 1B/DH is just to plug the injury holes and not disrupt the pitching staff with a teenage receiver in the middle of a run for the playoffs.

I'd like to see him try harder glove positions than 1B before we Konerko him to fast-track the bat to the bigs. He hasn't got the power to really clear the fences yet, but his hit talent and his eye are both fine in early action. He's got the time to work on defense.

Garci was more of a high

Garci was more of a high contact guy.

I love the Tulo comp. Pretty much same skillset with the walks, contact rate, and power. Underrated defense too.

A lefty Tulo? That would be just fine. Wow.

Only thing there G about Tulo

How much of a difference between Tulo's frame and Franklin's?

'course Tulo plays in your neck of the woods, right. And as we mentioned, Nomar had no problem hitting like Tulo without having Tulo's height.

Nomah got on the juice, apparently, later, but was never huge and from an early age he hit the ball pretty hard in any park.

Tulo vs.

Tulo is huge in comparison. Franklin should have some growth and then maturing muscles left but Tulo is a big kid. Taller and stronger. But you don't have to be Prince Fielder to play baseball thankfully!

Not THAT different

Posted something on this last night but apparently didn't get it saved. My bad. Take two...

Now Troy had a couple inches and 20 pounds on Nick when he was drafted at 20-21, after college. And he's added another 15ish pounds at least as a pro.

But here's Tulo a bit younger:

http://www.checkoutmycards.com/CardImages/Original/153/976/08F.jpg

That's for the 04-05 USA National squad, which makes him 19-20.

And now Nick at 19:

http://www.checkoutmycards.com/CardImages/Original/277/802/04F.jpg

Tulo was bigger, especially through the chest...but not THAT much bigger. Sure he's way bigger NOW, but that doesn't mean Franklin won't get bigger too. And the thing you've got to remember about Franklin when you see video of him in games is that he's wearing that idiotic-looking concussion-proof helmet that makes him look like he's in little league. It's a Gazoo helmet.

Watch that homerun video of him again in the all-star game with his hat on backwards. He saunters out there all lanky power and looks far bigger than in game footage. I think the helmet is creating an optical illusion that disappears the second you see him without it. He WALKS like a power hitter. He's rangy now, but he sure looks to me like a kid that'll fill in.

And if he doesn't, well, we don't need him to fill in to be a great SS for us. Hitting 200 HRs from the shortstop position is something that would be a (large) bonus, not a requirement. It's not exactly a "be Hanley Ramirez or go home" sort of situation.

Very convincing

Until reading your post just there, my last remaining worry was also, what if this kid never does get above 170?

But those points about the helmet, and the way the kid carries his body weight, his body language, are right on. After reading your post, my guess would also be that the kid is close to 200 lbs. when he's 22.

One thing's for sure, a lot of kids were thin as rails as teenagers.

Two words: Ted Williams.

Shoulda put that on the front page Spec

- cpoints

..............

:- ) If G doesn't write an article off that, it falls to moi...

in answer to cho vs

in answer to cho vs franklin...franklin was 18/19 in A and AA breaking records - first pro this and that; broke the 49 year single season franchise hr record, etc. etc. good luck to both kids.

And on the "down" escalator -- sad

Carlos Triunfel emulating the "bad" version of Jose Lopez, except worse.

Season: 456 AB, 117 H, 12 dbl, 1 tpl, 7 HR, 13 BB: 54 K, 2 SB: 8 CS -- .257/.285/.333

Last 10 games: 35 AB, 6 H, 1 xbh, 2 BB, 3 K -- .171/.216/.200

This is one of your greatest

This is one of your greatest Doc. What an awesome series of posts.

Hey and now

The four hours were all worth it, with an autographed baseball from the roto king.

Thanks mucho Champ.

Power Projection

I am completely unfit to be commenting on a players mechanics so while all this sounds good I really have no clue how correct it is. What I do know a little bit about is stats. And something I have discovered is that if a hitter has any sort of major league career, his ISO in the majors will be BETTER than what it was in the minors. Now, I haven't done any kind of study and it might not hold up for the guys with next to no power (like Luis Castillo and Willie Bloomquist), but from what I've seen this is a very reliable rule of thumb.

With that in mind, I think it is extremely bad analysis for anyone to state that a guy who swats 25 homers as a teenager will only be a 15 or 20 homer guy in the majors. That appears to completely ignore how players actually develop. If Franklin has what it takes to play in the show, then his power is probably going to be a plus, not mediocre. BUY

The Draft

Every year hundreds of players are drafted by MLB clubs, and every year we are treated to tons of analysis by bloggers and Baseball America telling us just how good all of those players are and how they all rank amongst each other. Now, everybody knows that the development of young players is extremely volatile and we all giggle about how wrong the experts were about most of the players in years past. Yet when the next draft comes about, everyone spends hours talking about whether a guy deserved to be drafted with the 17th pick or the 24th, and we get all angry and flustered about who the team picked or who they passed up.

This is all really absurd. We don't have a clue how any of these guys will develop. What we do know, what we can be absolutely positive about, is that our expectations will turn out wildly wrong. So I get really tired when people bash the team over the draft and act like they know so much more than the professionals. While there are certainly some picks that are worthy of criticism, for the most part we should reserve ALL judgment for a couple of years.

Nick Franklin is a perfect example of this. At the time of the draft most M's fans were upset because he wasn't viewed as being real good and there were a bunch of guys available who were SOOOO much better. Well, one year later and we can see that flatly is not the case.

It also needs to be pointed out that the teams know FAR more about each of these players than any of us. I respect people like Jason Churchill and John Sickels, but they are operating with a fraction of the information of a MLB scouting director and we need to keep that in mind. Also, teams don't get ahead of their competitors by going along with the consensus. No, they need to BEAT the consensus which necessarily means evaluating players differently from others.