You are here

... M's 4

Replies

SABR Matt's picture

I think Ackley starts somewhere in 2010....which...he wants to play the outfield.  YTou could put him at first base but I don't think that's intelligent resource deployment.

SABR Matt's picture

I don't think you can really say that Alvarez is last year's Ackley.  Alvarez is a slugger with a 2 EYE, Ackley is an all around plus plus hitter with a 1 EYE.  Alvarez is a mediocre fielding third baseman with a future in LF or 1B.  Ackley is an average defensive CFer with a future in the outfield or at 1B if his health becomes a problem.

Orgs take their time more wiht guys who aren't as intelligent at the plate, even with huge upside power potential.  ESPECIALLY Pittsburgh - known for dragging its heals getting prospects to the big club and ruining them in the process.

SABR Matt's picture

And his team is playing it WAY conservatively with him as is.  I am willing to bet his major league contract inspires the Mariners to let Ackley play if he has a good ST and AFL, which I believe he will.

Taro's picture
Submitted by Taro on

Agreed. Alvarez struck out twice as much as Ackley in college and never had a season as good as Ackley's '09. Alvarez has more raw power, but Ackley is definetly much more polished with better contact skills, hand-eye coordination, and strike zone judgement.

A more comparable college hitter would be Gordon Beckham. Although Beckham hit 3-4 more HRs prorated in his '08 season, statistically they were VERY similar hitters in their walk years.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

... but you don't need a cookie-cutter comp in order to remember that the highest picks in the draft often fail.

Alvarez was by far the best college hitter in the 2008 draft.

.................

That said, Alvarez is hardly a failure -- 300/400/550 in AA, his first full year of pro ball, and in the 2H it's got to be considerably higher than that.

Still, asking Dusty to rake ML pitching a few months from now is asking a lot :- )

SABR Matt's picture

Doc...the reason I cared at all about the comp to Alvarez is that the type of hitter matters a great deal when trying to predict how they'll do in the near future.  A guy who is relying on power without the developed EYE or HIT is going to need more time in the organization to learn those skills before he gets promoted.  Alvarez is doing very well in AA, but it's understandable that Pittsburgh might want to ease him in.  A contact hitter with great batspeed and a great eye does not need minor league at bats to learn how to recognize pitchers or what have you...he's already developed in ways that matter to a major league game.  I don't think it's asking much at all for Ackley to hit a slap-happy .290 with good OBP next year.  His kind of skills translate well to the majors more often than not.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

And in this case, the differences between the two might be fundamental, too.  Ackley's HIT ability is (by all accounts) pretty much as good as it gets coming out of college.  That's an important odds-changer.

Still, I hope we all realize that the true can't-misses are limited to approximately Strasburg, Lincecum and ARod :- )

SABR Matt's picture

...I'm still laying odds that by no later than June of 2010, Ackley is the starting left fielder.

Taro's picture
Submitted by Taro on

Gordon Bekham was by far the best college hitter in 2008. Alvarez was drafted over Beckham thanks to his tools (although I wouldn't have drafted Alvarez over Beckham).

Beckham had a far better eye and K'ed at half the rate of Alvarez. Heck, he even hit for more power in the same conference.

College hitters aren't a gaurantee, but I'd be shocked if Ackley weren't in the majors at least by some time in '11. Hes one of the most polished guys to come out since Gordon Beckham and Matt Laporta.

Leave a Reply

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <ul> <ol> <li> <i> <b> <img> <table> <tr> <td> <th> <div> <strong> <p> <br> <u>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
By submitting this form, you accept the Mollom privacy policy.