HQ's minors grading system fully explained here. The MLBA annual available here.
1-10 sets their ceiling for a given player, with 1 being "minor league roster filler," 7 being ML average, 9 being All-Star. One player in the book has a 10 grade, "Hall of Famer," that being Stephen Strasburg.
Strasburg at SD State ran a 16.1 DOM, 1.6 CTL and 0.3 HR/9 for a hilarious 322 Base Performance Value.
MLBA says that Strasburg's 94-99 fastball "has late run in on the hands of RH hitters," that his "nasty slider has sharp late downward action" and that he has a quality changeup that he does not have to use.
Yeah, we heard the same thing about Tim Lincecum's change...
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A-E sets their projected probablity of hitting that ceiling, A being 90%, E being 10%. They give Strasburg a C, 50%, chance of becoming a HOF-caliber ace.
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=== Greg Halman, 9E ===
About a dozen players have the highest* 9 ceiling, including Greg Halman, crossed against the lowest E chance of hitting it. This 9E is sort of a joke rating they have a lot of fun with.
Halman is "athletic and powerful," leading his league in HR but also the minor leagues in K's. He has an "exciting blend of tools," with plus-plus (40+ HR) power and excellent speed -- even rating Halman as a better-than-average center fielder.
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They believe that Halman simply must shorten his swing if he's going to get his K's under control. This is an interesting suggestion on their part.
We were asked earlier why Halman's K's bother us, when Tui's don't.
Part of the answer is that Halman's EYE last year was 0.16; nobody stars with an 0.16 K/BB ratio. Tui's was over 0.40. For a young, toolsy player, 0.43 isn't a worry. But for any player, 0.16 is a huge worry.
More to the point, as MLBA notes, the EYE differences also illustrate the compactness of Tui's powerful swing compared to Halman's long stroke.
It seems to me that it shouldn't be tough for Halman to take a slightly shorter path to the ball and get on top of it more. And we have little doubt that, cutting down his swing one notch, Halman will still get his 440-footers.
Sandy Koufax jelled the same way: he just took the volume from 11 down to 10, stopped yanking his head and throwing with all his might ... and found out he was still throwing the ball by hitters. Hopefully this will be the year that Halman figures out he can swing smoothly and still clear the fence.
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=== Tyson Gillies, 8C ===
To my complete amazement, called "the key to the deal" by the Phillies, MLBA sided with SSI in rating Gillies the third player in the deal (Aumont 9D, Juan Ramirez 8B). But 8C is a whaaaallllllllllle of a rating for a #3 player.
Wow. Three very feasible plus-ML-players for one walk year's worth of an ace. Tell me again how cheap these TOR pitchers are in the trade market.
With an 8C rating, they assign Gillies a 50-50 shot at becoming an impact ML player, projecting him to high AVG, SB's, plus gap power -- while offering a plus glove in CF. In other words, they see him with a great shot at being a young Johnny Damon, add defense.
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Figure Phillippe Aumont a 30% chance at All-Star and 50% chance at impact ... Ramirez a 70% chance at impact starting ... and Gillies a 50% chance at impact ... and you're looking at $100m worth of performance from these three players before they hit free agency.
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How come these Tyson Gillies guys are only future ML stars after they leave the M's? :- )
Cheers,
Dr D
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