Mike Wilson 992 OPS ... MLE = 250 / 335 / 485 ( part 1)

=== E=MC^2 Dept. ===

Wilson's 250/335/485 major league equivalency (MLE) is, as the political pollsters say, a "statistical tie" for Russell Branyan's 250/325/520 line so far this year.

Branyan's line is, of course, a 130 OPS+ oasis in a barren wasteland of 70 OPS+ Mariner desert. Remember, now, Bill James and Gary Huckabay tell us that MLE's are just as predictive as major-league stats are.

Wilson hit 290/400/585 at AA West Tenn, was called up to Tacoma after a month, and proceeded to hit exactly the same thing at cavernous AAA Cheney: 290/400/595. I guess that means he'd hit exactly the same 290/400/605 at Safeco, and 290/400/615 a league above that.

Minorleaguesplits.com gives Wilson's MLE as the 250/335/485, and that's assuming a terrible BABIP. As noted a month ago, Wilson's EYE ratio has taken a sudden, inexplicable Roman Candle arc through the roof, and it has persisted against the fringe-ML pitching of the Pacific Coast league.

=== You Can't Stop the Rainiers, You Can Only Hope to Contain Them ===

En fuego, babe. Friday night, the Rainiers scored yet another seven runs, with Wilson supplying three of the hits. And Wilson's three hits raised his July line to ... wait for it ... 424/472/818.

It's one thing for a college linebacker to hit homers, but Wilson is now OBP'ing like Dustin Ackley and has his OPS to 1000 on the year.

He's SLG'ing .475 when behind in the count. His OPS is 978 against righties. He has a gorgeous 0.70 EYE against RHP's. He's got an OPS of 1077 with runners on, and an OPS of 1319 with runners in scoring position.

=== Dept. of Transportation, Traffic Jam Division ===

Except that Michael Saunders is the M's best hitter after Ichiro and Guti, you'd say that Wilson needs some ML at-bats. Quite a traffic jam going there with Saunders, Wilson and Greg Halman.

Now you see why Stars & Scrubs clears room for a loaded org at the bottom of the roster :- ) and you see why not only Casey Kotchman, but also Milton Bradley are sunk costs.

This offseason, when asked about Ken Griffey Jr.'s returning in 2010, Zduriencik replied gently, "Nice stories are nice stories, but in the end we have to move on with players we're going to build a pennantwinner around," or somesuch. Capt Jack keeps his eye on the James Question: can you win your next pennant with this player?

With CK and MB the answer is, "No." With Mike Wilson the answer is, "Maybe." You've got 70 games that you'd better use for something other than trying to win a division...

What are you going to do with Mike Wilson? It's not going to be any easier to get him in there next year.

Part 2

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Pineda lit up Friday

Check out the GameDay for an amazing string of waist- and letter-high pitches, and 5-pitch walks.

Last time out, during the perfecto, Pineda remarked about being very tired, and the command on Friday was completely gone. Time to skip a turn, no doubt.

Check the GameDay -- either the pitches were being manually input by somebody who was not familiar with the job, or Pineda threw the most remarkable string of waist-high pitches in the history of baseball. :- )

Thanks Doc

I've been saying that about Wilson for quite a while....but you said it much better than I. Wilson needs to be up now. Something has clicked with him, evidently......and it appears that he may have become a MLB threat. 40 PA's in spring training will not be the way to determine that, nor will 30 September PA's.

He is killing AAA pitching AND he was nearly kept on the team coming out of ST in '09.

Reward the lad and evaluate for the future...all at the same time.

70 games left. Figure out a way to give him 35 starts. It can be done easily.

We're learning what we have in Saunders. He's a guy that can really hurt RHP's when they make a mistakes inside. He doesn't seem to have a chance against LH's. Let's see what Wilson brings to an OF rotation. I sense that he is Saunders equal with the bat.

But, I think I'm begining to sound like a broken record.

Wilson was never a sexy prospect

Moe,

I'm sure the M's are well aware of Wilson's ability and I hope as you do that they give him a good long look and not just an at bat or two at season's end. I believe he has earned his due.

I believe part of the reason Wilson has never garnered much attention among the blogosphere is that he was overshadowed by their first round pick , brother of Nomar, and it took him a few years to break out of rookie ball. Then everytime he put together a good season and was about to put himself on the map the next year would be wasted due to injury. So although he is putting together quite a season he has become a name most people overlook especially since he started the season in AA he has almost become an afterthought. He has not been able to sustain momentum as a prospect.

Here's to hoping Wilson can continue mashing the ball so he can get his shot.

Glam was off, no doubt, but he was a #2

And was the #26 or #27 Mariner out of ST in Wok's first year, IIRC...

Doesn't have a glamor rep, but it sez here they have him on the short list...

There should be a

There should be a way.

Saunders can play CF, right? And Gutz could use a little rest now and then...

Missed it by only one cubicle Grump

The thread next door :- )

A Hitter can be better in AAA than AA

With regards to contact rates, Wilson has improved as he moved up a level.

What is driving this sudden shift in performance and would it be sustainable/translatable if he is placed on the M's everyday roster? His power is without question but would his contact rates drop enough to render his power moot. Has he actually become a better hitter as he has moved up a level?

I have not heard much with regards to Wilson's defense in the outfield. I'm assuming since he has played outfield his entire career he should at least be adequate.

He's an adequate corner OFer.

He's an adequate corner OFer. He's not gonna win any fielding awards.

Mike Wilson is a very interesting conundrum. He's always been decent at taking a base, has always had good power and is equal against pitchers from either side...but he strikes out every 3.5 at-bats, which is not normally sustainable for successful hitters. It just isn't. Very, VERY few people can K like that in the minors and still be successful in the bigs. The improved scouting and pitching will lay your weaknesses out there for all to see.

This year, Mike has crept above the 1:4 line and is improving as we go. But just last season is was UNDER 1:3. Maybe Mike is changing opinions - but he's 27 and there's a decade's worth of reports on him that say this is who he is.

I'd like to see him get his pro at-bats in a lost season, but I understand if the Ms think it's fool's gold and don't want to waste Saunders's development time by having him share ABs with Wilson.

Wilson normally Ks every 3 ABs against RHP. This year? 3.5. I dunno that the Ms are gonna take the swimming-upstream bet that Wilson can be the rare exception. He's three years behind other exceptions like Mark Reynolds for the D-Backs, who is mere days older than Mike but has been in the pros since 2007.

Still, I'd like to see him get his swings. If he CAN be an exception then maybe we can trade a Saunders for somebody's blocked SS or something. It's no shame to trade a Sexson when he's blocked by a Thome, as long as you get something good for your Sexson.

First I'd need Wilson to approach being awesome, though - in the bigs and not after 3000 plate appearances in the minors.

The best guy to make that call is the one making it. The longer Wilson stays down and isn't hitting in the heart of the order, the more I doubt Wilson's career season is changing org opinions of him.

Adequate

Ya, his raw speed keeps him well above the (other?) 35-homer guys who play LF. But a Milton Bradley career defensively is probably the best-case.

Not sure LB angles are the same ones that you take to run down slicing fly balls :- ) but seriously, you can see the LB mentality as he attacks a fly ball ...

Intriguing theory

550/4 is 137 strikeouts a year ... is that the waterline for guys with 70 PWR? Mmmmm...

A quick look at 2009 K leaders in the majors confirms any number of stars with 140-170 strikeouts, three of them in the 200 range...

Of course, you're talking about K's against bush leaguers which is a different animal...

Would Reynolds and Howard and Cust and Pena etc. show harder CT%'s in the minors? Not sure...

...............

The argument is a fascinating one, that there is a K benchmark in the minors ... independent of EYE ... that indicates too many holes to survive ML pitching.

Would like to hear more about the idea. Very intriguing.

................

At any rate, that is the question on Wilson for sure -- whether he has too many holes. The M's will use their scouting on that as much as anything.

c-points

One thing, if you don't like him now

That he's OPS'ing 1000 and suddenly drawing scads of walks...

He shouldn't have been in your org in the first place...

If I recall . . .

they already let him go once, and then re-signed him as a minor league free agent. That means they're past viewing you as a prospect and view you as organizational filler. Starting him back in AA is another pretty strong tell.

That doesn't mean he can't crawl back out of that, but it wouldn't shock me if they still just view him as a guy too old for his league having a fluke season.

Established concept in stat-based prospect analysis

Hi Doc,

It's been a few years since I first ran across the idea -- maybe at baseball prospectus -- but contact rate is a huge issue for minor leaguers. The pitch stalker archetype generally has a substantial increase in strikeout rate when going from the minors to the majors.

Just a few examples:

Adam Dunn: PA/K=3.8 in MLB, 5.5 in MiLB

Jim Thome: PA/K=4.1 in MLB, 6.5 in MiLB

Mark Reynolds: PA/K=3.0 in MLB, 4.3 in MiLB

Richie Sexson: PA/K=4.3 in MLB, 5.4 in MiLB

Rob Deer: PA/K=3.2 in MLB, 5.8 in MiLB

Pete Incaviglia: PA/K= 3.7 in MLB, 5.4 in MiLB

The one important exception I found was Ryan Howard.

Ryan Howard: PA/K=3.6 in MLB, 3.7 in MiLB

I don't know if you paid much attention to the cyber-snarks over Ryan Howard's prospect status, but most of the fights went:

Pro-Howard: "Wow, look at that power!"

Anti-Howard: "Wow, look at the moron that doesn't realize strikeout rates like that in the minors guarantee failure."

Ah, the good old days. This is why I think Halman is still likely doomed, but let's hope not.

Ya, strikeout rates go way up

Ya, strikeout rates go way up in the majors. This is why a lot of these MLB comps don't make as much sense for me..Guys strike out a lot less when they're in the minors.

What does a 35 K% translate to in the majors? It would be rediculous. Halman needs to get that down to around 20-25% before hes ready to get a shot.

More Wilson

By the way, Wilson hit 9th in the lineup for Tacoma tonight. Can't figure that out!

Anyway, the more I look at it the more that Wilson's lousy seasons may be injury related. I'm sure somebody can fill in the blanks here. But in '07 and '09, when he basically stunk (.206-.291-.422 in '07 and .196-.307-.357 in '09) he played in 57 and 66 games, respectfully. I'm assuming some of this was injury related...but I may be wrong.

In '08 and '10, when he tore it up he's played in a bunch more games, 119 in '08 and 79 already this year. '08 numbers were .276-.388-.549. this year they are .294-.399-.592.

When he plays he rakes (although that relationship could go the otehr way, too).

Notice that over the past three years he has walked more than .100.

His walks per K have been improviing, too. 1/4.7, 1/1.9, 1/2.7, 1/1.5 over the past 4 seasons.

The batting 9th or way down the order) is a bit of a concern to me....Does it really mean that the organization has given up on him?

Moe

the DL has definitely slowed him

And hulking LB-sized guys with tight quads don't have the resilience that ballplayers have.

Bo Jackson his ownself being a case in point.

Not only Wilson 9...

But Hannahan and Woodward leading off, with Wilson, Mangini and Halman bringing up the bottom of the lineup. (Another 7 runs for the Rainiers by the 4th inning tonight.)

I'm very curious why Brown sets the lineup that way. He's got a reason, but I don't know what it is.

To emphasize thoughtful AB's to the kids, maybe.

Why not give Wilson a look?

Why not give Wilson a look? The M's are sitting at the center of the storm right now anyhow. A wind of change wouldn't hurt anything.

It makes sence to shed

It makes sence to shed Ichiro. Trying to add a cheap Jay Buhner to right field where the team could use some power. Shedding salary and creating funds for next year.

I wonder if Ichiro is worth

I wonder if Ichiro is worth $17 mil. in Japan?

We get it. You hate Ichiro.

I think we can now move on to a topic that is actually RELEVANT...since Ichiro is not going anywhere and shouldn't go anuywhere. He is, like it or not, the face of this franchise. There is no point in talking about the benefits of trading him...the org is tied to him until he retires. He's the one superstar we managed to keep (well...two with King Felix around...at least for now). Brass knows if they trade him off, their attendence will drop from 2 mil to 0.8 mil in a HEARTBEAT. He's part of the Mariners' brand. Deal with it.

No I don't hate Ichiro. So

No I don't hate Ichiro. So YOU (we) don't really get it. It's trading season, I think everyone is fair game. I don't think it's realistic to say that people would quit going to games if Ichiro didn't wear an M's uniform. I'm not really sure how you calculate that. I certainly don't watch baseball games because Ichiro is on the field. Do you? It's yet another silly principal of gate draw first winning second. I believe the Ichiro marriage has simply been ingrained into the fan base. So, simply put the NOTION that more than half the attendance is due to ichiro playing on the field really is just something that you grabbed out of thin air. Holds no water.

Futhermore the Rays are

Futhermore the Rays are looking for a right fielder and lead off hitter. Ichiro fits like a glove. I suspect the M's would have to eat some of his salary and luxuries to get anything in return I think it's a win win situation.

Deal with it.

Matt, Frog

No more bickering, please.

But

The ump walks away amused because of the (redeeming) attempt to break the inset-box formatting. :- )

!?

Who Should Stay and Who Should Go

Disregarding pitching at this time since I can think of really only two pitchers who the M’s may want to take a look at this year Pineda and potentially Feierabend (to see if they should keep him on the 40 man roster).

The position players who Seattle should look at moving off their roster either through either trading or releasing are as follows

Lopez: I believe it’s time to cut ties. With no future on the team and the quality of his at bats diminishing, he has gone the way of the Yuni. Sweeney: Bad knees, bad back, unable to stay healthy, but he does have an okay bat. Any way is there any reason he should be getting at bats which would be better served prepping a younger player i.e. Wilson. Kotchman: horrible season so far (Dr D called it) seem like a nice guy but with Smoak and Branyan on the roster why is he on the roster, unless Z hopes that he can continue his mini power streak in order to off load him to another team. Bradley: other than the fact we owe something like $12M to him next yr is there a reason to keep him around. Yes he has behaved nicely so far but his performance on the ball field both before and after his meltdown has been dismal. And with Branyan and Smoak on the team he will be pushed to the outfield where his tender knees have already failed the test.

Position players who the M’s should seriously consider adding to the 25 man roster. I’m leaving Ackley off this for now until he has shown the ability to drive the ball at the AAA level.

Mike Wilson: he has been discussed enough, with his incredible power, and improving OBP / lower strike out rates. He is ready for the test, whether it is an occasional start at DH or in LF. Mangini: If Lopez is out, why not take a quick look at Mangini. It looks like he as taken several steps forward this year with the bat. Tui: He is running out of positions. I’ve become less certain of his ability to play 3B. Maybe it’s time we begin to look at him as an OF. If Tui does begin to tear up AAA pitching, then let’s bring him up and play him. Adam Moore: the way he has been stinging the ball I’d bring him up and send down Rob Johnson.

How to give them all playing time. Wilson can rotate between LF and DH. Saunders can alternate between LF and CF. Guti who was red hot earlier in the year has been flat of late. It may be smart to rest him a game or two a week it could be he just wears down as the season grinds on. Tui is the tough one to place if he can handle third I’d play him there, I’d also look to play him in the OF on occasion don’t know what else to do with him. Mangini if he continues his hot hitting down in Tacoma, I’d bring him up even if Lopez remains on the roster and platoon the two.

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