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Mid-summer Review: PITCHING

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SABR Matt's picture

...For some unknown reason, this blog software feels the need to put approximately 57 lines of white space between text and list-format blocks, while randomly changing how large my font will appear to be to me while I'm editing and creaing weird discontinuities in format that I cannot correct.  So if there are errors or weird formats...sorry about that.

Incidentally...this is the first in a series I'll release over the next few days...the goal is to get the 30,000 foot view of Z's work to date in reforming the franchise.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

... by how many of those grades are very similar to what I'd have had.  Interesting to see that you have strong reservations about Vargas and Olson, for example.

You've got Ian Snell up to B already?  When does he hit the Safeco rotation, skip?

SABR Matt's picture

...Some folks are unwilling or incapable of using the average part of their rating spectrum to actually mean average. :)  Have you ever noticed that when people grade prospects, they say a grade C prospect is a guy who is literally uninteresting org-depth fodder?  To me...a grade C prospect is an interesting, average prospect...a guy with an average chance to hit the big leagues (read...very small chance. :) ).  To me a C starting pitcher in the big leagues is an average one.

So I give Rowland-Smith a C+ (he'll be a little above average IMHO...think 105 ERA+ that's weighted down by lots of homers and helped by few walks and a low BABIP).  I give Vargas a D+...that means I think he's a somewhat below average MLB starter.  Think 85 ERA+ mushy.  Lots of HRs and a HIGH BABIP to go with the HRs.  He's tricksy and fights hard, but the talent just isn't there for him to be an MOR kind of guy.

And yes...I think Olson - as a starting pitcher - is utterly worthless until he proves otherwise.  When you make out a major league depth chart, you have to go by what they'll gie you in the next 12 months....not by potential.

As for Snell...get me Snell TOMORROW...forget this Vargas nonsense.  When he gets to Seattle, he's my man...and I tell him so.  He's a B with question marks...if he gets his groove on, he's a B+ or A- easily.  Before 2008 and the depression of playing for the league's most pathetic franchise NOT in DC, he was a 125 DNRA+ pitcher hard on the barrelhead.  You can count those on one hand in each league.  He's a TOR if he gets back to that.

SABR Matt's picture

It is a source of mild annoyance that this got utterly and completely BURIED by Doc's biggest hailstorm of posts in a short time period in about the last year...LOL

It would be nice if people could see that at one time this post existed.  Unfortunately, they cannot, because for some reason, it's not showing up.  Did I do something wrong?

SABR Matt's picture

I could throw Washburn's mug up there since he's the central figure for the Mariner pitching turnover the last few days.

SABR Matt's picture

I can insert images into a post, and I can browse all of the various images you've used at this blogsite, but I can't find any button or command for uploading a new image.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

We got it.  Today the sidebar, tomorrow the world. :- )  :daps:

SABR Matt's picture

Since I've gotten to look at French and Fister, I edited some of my ratings a touch...For one thing, Fister's C+ prospect rating became a C+ ACTUAL rating (i.e. I have little doubt that he can be an above average major league starting pitcher, no sense saying that's upside anymore...that's real value now)...and Luke French has been dowgraded to a D (from a C-) due to extreme concerns about his inability to throw 80 pitches without severe velo drops, command loss and loss of snap on his slider.

I also dropped Vargas to a D (from a D+) reflecting my total loss of faith in his being anything more than org filler.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

If we can't move around, we wither and die :- )

Taro's picture
Submitted by Taro on

My grade for French actually goes up. His upside is higher than I thought initially and hes a guy you pull once hes fatigued. 4-6 quality innings beats the snot out of 5-7 mediocre innings.

For French the whole issue is his stamina. In the next year we're going to find out whether he can build that arm up or not.

I missed the third inning on when Fister really shined, but I've learned not to get too nuts about a single start. Fringe arsenal without a single above-average breaking pitch gives him an incredibly small margin for error. Your belief on him depends on how good you think his command/pitchability is.

Fister has a lower upside than French, although arguably hes probably already close to that upsidie (#5-6 SP).

I'd rate French around C+ and Fister around D+.

SABR Matt's picture

French's upside might be higher, but his probability of being worth anything at all is close to zero if he cannot pitch more than 4 innings without imploding his velo and break.  He's damaged good.

I am much more interested in starting pitchers who can give me 7 quality pitch efficient innings even if they don't overpower people because with THIS park and THIS defense, those are the guys you can bag for cheap and then bank 200 4.20 ERA innings.  I'm running a Cardinals' style pitching staff if I'm in charge of the Mariners.  bag an ace or two and then fill in with rubber arms who throw strikes.

SABR Matt's picture

I've made the edits to my grades that I felt were necessary to reflect changes in my thinking regarding the pitching for 2010.  I will make similar changes where necessary for the offense, including the rise of Bill Hall and some new thinking on Jack Wilson, Michael Saunders and Mike Carp

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