So, how good were the 2009 Mariners REALLY?

By record, they were 85-78, and 12 games behind the Angels, (and 10 out of the WC).

Comparing offensive to defensive OPS, they were .716 - .710 -- (about as close to .500 as one could get).

If you simply normalize for the 1-run game record, (35-20), to a standard 18-17, (willing to give them the extra half win just to avoid fractions), they would be 78-84.

By pythag, they were only 75-87, (640-692 run split).

The truth is, to reasonably assess a team in hindsight, one SHOULD look at as many different angles as one can.  The range runs from 75 wins to 85.  Personally, I think judging the 2009 Ms as a legit 80-win team (dead center of the range), seems not only reasonable, but likely correct.  Doing too much work on comparing to previous teams is likely a fool's errand, as they had a particularly unique skew of remarkable defense, tepid pitching, and miserable offense. 

As for what this portends for 2010 ... IMO, not much.  The problem in viewing the 2009 team as a starting point and viewing season-long stats is the team CHANGED during the season, and it is highly likely that 2,000 PAs (probably more), in 2010 will be coming from hitters that didn't supply those ABs during 2009.  The team only had 6113 PAs -- so it is likely 1/3 of the offensive stats for 2010 are a complete unknown at the moment.  In truth, at this moment, the only filled positions in the lineup are CA, 2B, CF and RF.  Decisions have to be made on 5 of the 9 starting slots.  While many are already penciling Branyan back into the lineup, the UPSIDE is that 1/3 of PAs in 2010 are new.  The current landscape says more than half of the PAs in 2010 will be from new hitters. 

Take any random 5 starters off of ANY team, and tell me whether it would make sense to begin thinking of building based on the aggregate team stats?  When you're flipping SO MUCH of your lineup, the final combined stats for a team become meaningless.  One can look at the Catcher Hydra, Lopez, Gut and Ichiro -- and at least begin making some guesses as to the foundation blocks for the 2010 offense.  But, the offensive roster is only slightly ahead of where you'd expect an expansion franchise to be in year 3.

The pitching is equally troublesome.  Felix is obviously returning, and is a wonderful foundation block.  But Wash is gone, Bedard is a huge (fragile) question mark, Snell is a curiosity, RRS may be on an innings leash, Silva is a money pit who might be healthy (shudder).  And outside of Aardsma and Lowe, the bullpen for 2010 is largely a mystery, too.

The 2009 Ms were a .500 team talent-wise, that played a bit better than their talent suggested.  They had a world class defense, and a King of Aces.  The Hot Stove for this team is going to be scalding, because instead of 2 or 3 obvious spots to address in an otherwise static team, the 2010 club has sooooo many decisions to make that Z is going to need to hibernate come next summer, because he ain't gettin' no sleep this winter.